Metaplanet, a Japanese Bitcoin treasury company, saw its enterprise value fall below the value of its Bitcoin holdings and entered uncharted territory as one of the world’s biggest public holders of the asset.
Metaplanet’s market to Bitcoin NAV (mNAV) — a ratio between the company’s value and its Bitcoin (BTC) holdings — dropped below 1 on Tuesday, reaching 0.99 for the first time on record, according to official data.
The metric has dropped by more than seven points since mid-June, as the Metaplanet stock (3350) lost 75% of its value, falling from a peak of 1,895 Japanese yen ($13) per share to $3.20 on Tuesday, according to TradingView.
Metaplanet’s mNAV dropped below 1 after the company halted Bitcoin buying for the past two weeks, with its most recent BTC acquisition announced on Sept. 30.
Why is mNAV important?
Unlike traditional net asset value (NAV), mNAV is a ratio of enterprise value to Bitcoin NAV, designed to help investors gauge how the market values the company relative to its underlying BTC holdings, according to a mNAV page on BitcoinTreasuries.NET.
In mNAV, enterprise value is defined as the market capitalization of all Class A and Class B shares, total debt and the notional value of perpetual preferred shares, minus the company’s cash balance.
When mNAV falls below 1, the company trades at a discount to the value of its Bitcoin holdings, potentially reflecting market concerns about debt, its operating model or other risks.
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“It’s not a substitute for audited financials, but a high-level indicator of how much of the company’s valuation is driven by its BTC treasury vs. other factors,” BitcoinTreasuries.NET’s mNAV page reads.
Metaplanet holds $3.5 billion in Bitcoin
Metaplanet’s mNAV fell to 0.99 as the company held 30,823 BTC ($3.5 billion) on its balance sheet, following its most recent acquisition of 5,268 BTC on Sept. 30.
The mNAV drop came about a year after the Japanese hotel company made its first Bitcoin purchase on July 22, 2024, which triggered an immediate surge in its shares.
That initial Bitcoin acquisition pushed Metaplanet’s mNAV to an all-time high of 22.59 by July 24, a level that has not been seen since.
Does Metaplanet’s mNAV drop signal a failure?
Market observers have expressed mixed reactions to Metaplanet’s enterprise value falling below the value of its Bitcoin holdings.
“Metaplanet trading below its Bitcoin NAV doesn’t signal failure: it reveals a market that still misunderstands Bitcoin treasury models,” Melanion Capital’s CEO Jad Comair told Cointelegraph.
“It’s the same kind of misunderstanding that led investors to short Tesla in its early years: they saw a car company instead of an energy revolution,” Comair said, adding:
“The same will happen here. Once markets grasp the reflexive power of Bitcoin treasuries, these discounts will flip into persistent premiums.”
Smartkarma’s equity analyst Mark Chadwick said that Metaplanet’s mNAV dynamics highlight an ongoing cooling of the Bitcoin treasury trend.
“I still see this crypto treasury stock decline as a popping of a bubble,” Chadwick said, adding that long-term Bitcoin bulls may see Metaplanet’s discount as an opportunity to buy.
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Cointelegraph contacted Metaplanet for comment regarding its mNAV decline and potential implications, but had not received a response by publication.
Metaplanet is not the only Bitcoin treasury company experiencing a recent stock decline. Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest public Bitcoin holder with 640,250 BTC on its books, has seen the value of its Common A stock drop about 30% since July.
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