Polymarket sees 99.85% odds Israel–Iran ceasefire holds through July 18

Polymarket Ceasefire Ladder Holds Near-Certain “Yes” After Netherlands Settlement-Product Ban Headline

Polymarket traders are pricing an almost-certain continuation of the Israel–Iran ceasefire through the near-term rungs of a date-ladder contract, with the July 18 strike at 99.85% Yes on about $1.25M in volume. The trigger in the background is a Netherlands policy move tied to Israeli settlements, while the market lens here is how quickly odds steepen across later dates.

Key Takeaways

• Top rung: “Ceasefire continues through July 18” leads at 99.85% Yes (0.15% No) on Polymarket.
• After the Netherlands settlement-product ban headline, pricing stayed heavily skewed to “Yes” near-term, while later strikes show more disagreement about duration.
• The ladder runs out to an Aug. 31 strike, and the market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-31 23:59 UTC.

A report says the Netherlands plans to ban products from Israeli settlements starting September 22. The item is framed as a policy step linked to settlement-related trade, rather than a direct ceasefire announcement, but it sits alongside broader political pressure that traders may monitor.

Odds Curve & Liquidity Snapshot: $1.25M Volume as July 18 Prints 99.85% Yes vs July 31 at 72.5% and Aug. 31 Near 50/50

This Polymarket market is a price-ladder by date: each outcome is its own binary on whether the ceasefire lasts through that specific day, so “July 18” at 99.85% Yes / 0.15% No is not the same bet as “July 31” at 72.5% Yes / 27.5% No. The curve shows strong near-term consensus but widening uncertainty as the horizon extends: “July 22” is 93.5% Yes / 6.5% No, “July 31” is 72.5% Yes / 27.5% No, and “Aug. 31” sits near a coin flip at 50.5% Yes / 49.5% No. On the headline leading rung, odds ticked up slightly (99.8% to 99.85%, +0.05 pp) with total volume around $1,252,435, consistent with a market that is already priced for continuity rather than reacting with a large repricing. The historical summary flags low volatility with strengthening consensus and a +3.55 pp move over both 24 hours and 7 days, suggesting recent buying pressure accumulated into a near-ceiling price even if the latest change is marginal.

Watch whether later rungs (July 25, July 31, Aug. 15, Aug. 31) shift more than the near-term strikes; that’s where the contract is currently expressing most of the market’s duration risk. Also watch for any new, directly ceasefire-linked updates, since the market is already near maxed out on “through July 18” but not on the end-of-August outcomes.

What Traders Watch Next on Polymarket: Later-Date Rungs (July 25/31, Aug. 15/31) and Other High-Volume Macro/Crypto Cont

Beyond this date-ladder, traders often cross-check adjacent Polymarket contracts to see where risk is being priced in longer-dated scenarios and key chokepoints. Big liquidity is sitting in 76.05% on “Iran leader end of 2026?” (about $33.24M) and 73.5% No on “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” (about $45.87M), while shorter-horizon disruption is concentrated in 98.85% No on “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” (about $18.99M). For a more directly timing-focused read, “US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by…? (2 week pause)” is led by August 31 at 55.5% (about $1.78M), and “Iran full airspace closure by…?” has August 31 at 40.5% (about $5.09M)—useful comparators for how the platform is pricing duration versus escalation paths.

Odds Trend

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through…?
• Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Resolution window: Aug 31, 2026 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Volume: ~$1,252,435

Top strike rungs

+3 more strikes not shown

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