Crypto companies and platforms that provide stablecoin rewards have become a major point of contention in the CLARITY crypto market structure bill.
The banking industry should not be threatened by crypto companies offering stablecoin yield to customers, and both sides must compromise on the issue, according to White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt.
Witt said it was “unfortunate” that the issue of stablecoin yield has become a major point of contention between the crypto industry and banks, adding that crypto service providers sharing yield with customers does not threaten the banking industry’s business model or market share. He told Yahoo Finance:
“They can also offer stablecoin products to their customers, just the same as crypto. This is not an unfair advantage in either way, and many banks are now applying for OCC bank charters themselves to start offering bank-like products to their customers.
White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt provides an update on the CLARITY bill negotiations. Source: Yahoo Finance
In the future, I don’t think this is going to be an issue,” he continued, adding, “I think they’re going to find opportunities to use these products and leverage them and offer new products to their customers and expand their businesses.”
The ability of crypto service providers and platforms to offer rewards to customers who hold stablecoins has emerged as one of the most significant pain points for the industry, contributing to delays in passing the CLARITY market structure bill.
Time is running out on passing the CLARITY Act, Witt and others warn
The proposed CLARITY Act establishes clear regulatory jurisdiction over crypto markets between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and also creates an asset taxonomy for cryptocurrencies.
However, government officials and industry executives have warned that the looming 2026 US midterm elections could derail efforts to pass it into law and threaten to roll back crypto regulations established by the administration of US President Donald Trump.
“I think if the Democrats were to take the House, which is far from my best case, then the prospects of getting a deal done will just fall apart,” US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Friday.
“There’s a window here. The window is still open, but it is rapidly closing,” Witt said, adding that the White House Crypto Council is aiming to have the CLARITY Act signed into law before the midterms “take all of the oxygen out of the room.”
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CryptoQuant data shows Ether futures open interest (OI) across all major exchanges has dropped by over 80 million ETH in the past 30 days.
Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, recorded the largest decline of about 40 million ETH (50%) over the last 30 days.
Ether’s OI on Gate exchange fell by more than 20 million ETH (25%), while Bybit and OKX saw declines of 8.5 million ETH and 6.8 million ETH, respectively. Cumulatively, the four major platforms saw a total decline of about 75 million ETH, while other platforms accounted for the remaining five million ETH, confirming that the phenomenon is widespread and not limited to a single exchange.
This suggests that leverage traders are “reducing their exposure rather than opening new positions,” CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain said in a Quicktake analysis.
This significant drop in OI amid dropping prices can be “viewed as a clean-up of weaker positions, thereby reducing the likelihood of sharp forced liquidations later on,” the analyst said, adding:
“This environment may pave the way for a period of relative stability or the formation of a more solid price base for Ethereum in the near future.”
ETH open interest 30-day change. Source: CryptoQuant
Ether futures funding rates on Binance have plunged deep into negative territory at -0.006, marking the lowest value recorded since early December 2022.
“It indicates that the bearish sentiment has reached an extreme peak not seen in the last three years,” CryptoQuant contributor CryptoOnchain said in a Thursday Quicktake analysis.
Historically, extreme negative funding rates at major price support levels often precede a short squeeze.
“When the crowd is this convinced that prices will fall further, the market tends to move in the opposite direction to liquidate late bears,” the analyst said, adding:
“Current data suggests we may be witnessing a classic capitulation event, mirroring the bottom formation of late 2022, potentially setting the stage for a sharp recovery.”
Ether futures finding rates. Source: CryptoQuant
As Cointelegraph reported, Ether’s surging network activity and rising institutional investor inflows are significant tailwinds for any short-term ETH price gains.
ETH price technicals: Bulls must keep Ether above $2,000
The ETH/USD pair broke out of a falling wedge on the four-hour chart, to trade at $2,050 at the time of writing.
The measured target of the falling wedge, calculated by adding the wedge’s maximum height to the breakout point at $1,950, is $2,150.
Higher than that, the price may rise to retest the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at $2,260 and later toward $2,500.
On the downside, a key area to hold is the $2,000 psychological level, embraced by the 50-period SMA, as shown in the chart below.
The Glassnode cost basis distribution heatmap reveals a significant support area recently established between $1,880 and $1,900, where investors acquired approximately 1.3 million ETH.
ETH cost basis distribution heatmap. Source: Glassnode
As Cointelegraph reported, Ether accumulation addresses witnessed a surge in daily inflows as ETH dropped below $2,000 last week, signalling strong investor confidence in its long-term potential.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Bitcoin is attempting a comeback, which is expected to face stiff resistance at the breakdown level of $74,508.
Several major altcoins are attempting a recovery, signaling that lower levels are attracting buyers.
Bitcoin (BTC) has risen above $68,500, as buyers attempt to form a higher low near $65,000. According to Glassnode, BTC is stuck between the true market mean at $79,200 and the realized price near $55,000. The onchain data provider expects the range-bound action to continue until a major catalyst pushes the price either above or below the range.
Standard Chartered also had a muted forecast for BTC. It lowered BTC’s target to $100,000 from $150,000 for 2026. The bank expects BTC to fall to $50,000 over the next few months, followed by a recovery for the remainder of the year.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView
Several analysts also say that BTC has not yet bottomed out. Crypto analyst Tony Research said in a post on X that BTC will bottom in the $40,000 to $50,000 zone, possibly “between mid-September and late November 2026.”
Could BTC and the major altcoins start a recovery? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price prediction
BTC turned up from $65,118 on Thursday, indicating demand at lower levels. The bulls will try to push the price to the breakdown level of $74,508.
If the Bitcoin price turns down sharply from the $74,508 level, it suggests that the bears remain active at higher levels. That may keep the BTC/USDT pair between $74,508 and $60,000 for a few days. On the downside, a break below the $60,000 support may sink the pair to $52,500.
Alternatively, if buyers thrust the price above $74,508, it suggests that the selling pressure is reducing. The pair may then rally to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($85,046).
Ether price prediction
Buyers are attempting to push and maintain Ether (ETH) above the $2,000 level, but the bears have kept up the pressure.
If the price turns down from the current level or the $2,111 resistance, it suggests that the bears are aggressively defending the level. The Ether price may then retest the critical support at $1,750. If the level cracks, the ETH/USDT pair may extend the decline to the next major support at $1,537.
On the upside, buyers will have to swiftly push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($2,297) to signal a comeback. If they manage to do that, the pair may ascend to the 50-day SMA ($2,800).
BNB price prediction
BNB (BNB) continues to gradually slide toward the strong support at $570, which is a vital level to watch out for.
If the BNB price plunges below the $570 support, it signals the start of the next leg of the downtrend toward the psychological level of $500.
However, the relative strength index (RSI) is in oversold territory, indicating that a relief rally is possible in the near term. If the price turns up from the current level, the bulls will attempt to push the BNB/USDT pair above the $669 level. If they can pull it off, the pair may march toward the 20-day EMA ($710).
XRP price prediction
XRP (XRP) has been clinging to the support line of the descending channel pattern, increasing the risk of a breakdown.
If that happens, the XRP price may drop to the $1.11 level. This is a critical level for the bulls to defend, as a break below it may resume the downtrend. The XRP/USDT pair may then fall to $1 and subsequently to $0.75.
Contrarily, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the20-day EMA ($1.55), it suggests that the pair may remain inside the channel for some more time. Buyers will have to achieve a close above the downtrend line to signal a potential trend change.
Solana price prediction
Solana (SOL) is trying to find support at the $77 level, but the bears are likely to sell on rallies.
The SOL/USDT pair may reach the breakdown level of $95, where the bears are expected to pose a strong challenge. If the price turns down sharply from the $95 level, it suggests that the bears have flipped the level into resistance. The Solana price may then plummet to the $67 level.
Conversely, if buyers push the price above the $95 level, the pair may rally to the 50-day SMA ($119). That suggests the break below the $95 level may have been a bear trap.
Dogecoin price prediction
Dogecoin (DOGE) is attempting to bounce off the $0.09 level, but the bears continue to sell on minor rallies.
If the Dogecoin price turns down and breaks below $0.09, the DOGE/USDT pair may drop to the $0.08 level. This is a crucial level for the bulls to defend, as a break below it may extend the downtrend to $0.06.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA ($0.10). The pair may then rally to the breakdown level of $0.12, which is likely to act as stiff resistance. A break above the $0.12 level opens the doors for a rally to $0.16.
Bitcoin Cash price prediction
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) broke below the $497 support on Thursday, but the bulls failed to sustain the lower levels.
The bulls are attempting to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($536) but are expected to face significant resistance from the bears. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA and breaks below $493, the BCH/USDT pair may plunge toward the $443 level.
On the contrary, if the price breaks and closes above the 20-day EMA, it suggests demand at lower levels. The Bitcoin Cash price may then rally to the 50-day SMA ($581), where the bears are again expected to mount a strong defense.
The flattish 20-day EMA and the RSI just above the midpoint suggest a balance between supply and demand. Buyers will have to propel the Hyperliquid price above the $35.50 level to indicate that the corrective phase may have ended. The HYPE/USDT pair may then ascend to $44.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the 50-day SMA ($27.25), it signals that the bears have an edge. The pair may then slump to the $20.82 support.
Cardano price prediction
Cardano (ADA) remains inside the descending channel pattern, indicating that the bears remain in charge.
The bears will attempt to strengthen their position by pulling the price below the support line and the $0.22 level. If they manage to do that, the ADA/USDT pair may descend to $0.20 and later to $0.15.
Instead, if the Cardano price turns up from the current level and breaks above the 20-day EMA ($0.29), it signals that the pair may remain inside the channel for some more time. Buyers will seize control on a close above the channel.
Monero price prediction
Monero (XMR) is facing resistance at the breakdown level of $360, but the bulls have not ceded much ground to the bears.
That increases the likelihood of a break above $360. If that happens, the bears will again try to halt the recovery at the 20-day EMA ($385). However, buyers are likely to have other plans. They will try to pierce the 20-day EMA, clearing the path for a rally toward the 50-day SMA ($460).
This positive view will be negated in the near term if the Monero price continues lower and breaks below $309. The XMR/USDT pair may then plummet to $276, which is likely to attract buyers.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Cryptocurrency wallet makers and security companies are pushing out post-quantum products even though large-scale quantum computers capable of breaking Bitcoin do not exist yet.
The US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) finalized its first post-quantum cryptography standards in 2024 and called for migrations before 2030.
As standards bodies plan for a gradual cryptographic transition, parts of the wallet market are already monetizing that future.
“I do feel that it is a bit of a fear tax. We know that quantum computers are far away — still five to 15 years away,” Alexei Zamyatin, co-founder of Build on Bitcoin (BOB), told Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin is trading roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high. Among the handful of theories attempting to explain crypto’s recent decline is a growing concern that quantum computing risks may be deterring institutional capital from Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s 2026 decline pulled the cryptocurrency below $70,000. Source: CoinGecko
The quantum risk is not zero, and it is not sudden
The quantum vulnerability often discussed is Bitcoin’s Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm, which authorizes transactions. In theory, a powerful quantum computer could derive a private key from an exposed public key and claim the coins sitting in an address.
Today’s quantum hardware isn’t capable of breaking the elliptic curve signatures. But that doesn’t mean threat actors are waiting around for a technical breakthrough.
“Many users expect a single ‘Q-Day’ in the future when cryptography suddenly fails. In reality, risk accumulates gradually as cryptographic assumptions weaken and exposure increases,” Kapil Dhiman, CEO and co-founder of Quranium, told Cointelegraph.
“Harvest now, decrypt-later strategies are already active, meaning data and signatures exposed today are being collected against future capability,” he said.
In Bitcoin’s case, the concern is for older exposed public keys. Once a public key appears onchain, it remains permanently visible. Modern address formats obscure public keys until coins are spent.
The CoinShares researcher said 1.62 million BTC is in wallets holding under 100 BTC, which would take too long to unlock. Source: CoinShares
The quantum fear business
While the Bitcoin community debates how far away quantum computing is, crypto wallet makers are operating on their own clock.
Trezor’s Safe 7 is marketed as a “quantum-ready” hardware wallet. Separately, qLabs recently introduced the Quantum-Sig wallet, which it claims embeds post-quantum signatures directly into its signing process.
Crypto wallet makers are already rolling out quantum-ready hardware. Source: Trezor
BOB’s Zamyatin argued that wallet-level defenses would not solve Bitcoin’s quantum risk. Bitcoin transactions are authorized using a signature scheme embedded in the protocol itself. If that cryptography were ever broken, the fix would require a protocol-level change.
“I personally wouldn’t invest a lot of money into a quantum wallet right now because I don’t even know what protection it gives me for Bitcoin. It can’t really give me any protection, in my opinion, because Bitcoin doesn’t have a quantum-resistant signature scheme yet.”
Ada Jonušė, executive director at qLabs, agreed that full quantum resilience requires protocol-level defense. However, brushing off modern infrastructure as a fear tax overlooks the transitional nature of security upgrades.
“Quantum risk is not binary. Even before a protocol-level migration occurs, there is a real ‘harvest now, decrypt later’ threat,” she told Cointelegraph, claiming that qLabs’ approach reduces exposed key surface.
“Quantum readiness is about proactive infrastructure planning, not fear monetization,” Jonušė said.
Trezor also admitted that blockchains themselves need to change their cryptography and protocol. But Tomáš Sušánka, the company’s chief technology officer, told Cointelegraph that wallets can implement protections right away instead of waiting for protracted blockchain upgrades.
“Once the blockchains upgrade, wallets must also support the same algorithms to remain compatible,” Sušánka said. He added that Trezor Safe 7 uses a post-quantum algorithm to protect against future quantum computers forging digital signatures and signing malicious firmware updates.
Market incentives and Bitcoin’s governance hurdle
Unlike iPhones, which are released almost every year, hardware wallets and other security products typically have multi-year product lifecycles. Introducing post-quantum features in a new product gives a reason for customers to buy a new device, even if the threat is distant.
“Yes, parts of the crypto industry do have incentives to amplify quantum risk, but that incentive is increasingly driven by regulatory and institutional alignment, not short-term sales alone,” said Dhiman, whose Quranium powers the Qsafe wallet.
“For most users, quantum-secure wallets today function as long-term insurance. The responsible approach is to acknowledge the transition ahead, avoid urgency driven by fear and choose systems designed to evolve without forcing abrupt replacements.”
Several blockchains are advancing with post-quantum strategies, but Bitcoin has been relatively hesitant. Some of the network’s most influential voices have brushed off the threat as a problem for the future.
Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum has a widely recognized figurehead. Co-founder Vitalik Buterin has advocated for post-quantum preparations, and the network has been steering in that direction.
For Bitcoin, the issue is social consensus, coordination and the willingness to act, according to Zamyatin.
“It’s not like [Bitcoin has] one person that everyone will follow. It will require a broad social consensus, which is very hard to achieve,” he said.
Wallet makers agree that full quantum protection has to come from the protocol. But even if the risk is years away, they can act as insurance to help investors sleep better at night, though some argue they amount to a fear tax.
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Israeli authorities have arrested and indicted two people for allegedly using secret information to place bets on the predictions market Polymarket related to Israel striking Iran.
In a joint statement on Thursday, Israel’s Defense Ministry, its internal security service Shin Bet, and police said a military reservist and a civilian were arrested after an investigation found that the reservist obtained classified information to place the bets.
The prosecutor’s office will pursue criminal charges for security-related offenses, bribery, and obstruction of justice. Authorities said the reservist was working for Shin Bet.
Prediction markets have seen major insider trading scandals this year after a Polymarket user won a bet that Nicolás Maduro would be ousted as Venezuelan president hours before he was captured by US forces, profiting around $400,000.
The Israeli state-owned news outlet Kan reported last month that the Polymarket user “ricosuave666” placed several bets related to Israel’s military operations in Iran in June 2025, but it’s unknown if those arrested are behind the account.
The account reportedly wagered tens of thousands of dollars and earned over $152,300, betting on markets such as “Israel strike on Iran on June 24” and “Israel military action against Iran by Friday,” with the latter winning over $128,700.
Trades placed by Polymarket user ricosuave666 related to Israel’s attacks on Iran. Source: Kan
Prediction markets lead to real security risks when misused
Lawmakers worldwide have raised concerns that insider knowledge could be exploited in prediction markets, undermining market integrity and eroding public trust.
Israel’s Ministry of Defense said bets based on secret information pose a “real security risk for Israel Defense Forces activity and national activity,” adding that Israel’s military, security and police units will continue to pursue action against anyone who uses classified information illegally.
A lawyer representing the reservist told Bloomberg that the indictment is “flawed,” adding that the charge of harming national security has been dropped.
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
BTC open interest falls to $34 billion, but stable BTC-denominated volume suggests leverage demand remains unchanged.
Weak US jobs data and Bitcoin options skew indicate a bearish shift, even as gold and stocks show relative strength.
Bitcoin (BTC) price has struggled to sustain levels above $72,000 for the past week, leading investors to question whether institutional demand has evaporated. The aggregate Bitcoin futures open interest plummeted to its lowest level since November 2024, fueling fears of a retest of the $60,000 support amid growing uncertainty.
BTC futures aggregate open interest, USD. Source: CoinGlass
The aggregate BTC futures open interest hit $34 billion on Thursday, a 28% drop from 30 days prior. However, when measured in Bitcoin terms, the metric remains virtually flat at BTC 502,450, suggesting that demand for leverage has not actually decreased. Part of this decline is also attributable to forced liquidations, which totaled $5.2 billion over the past two weeks.
Investors are increasingly frustrated by the lack of a clear catalyst for Bitcoin’s 28% decline over the last month, especially as gold reclaimed the $5,000 psychological level and the S&P 500 traded just 1% below its all-time high. Some analysts argue that this risk-aversion stems from emerging signs of weakness in the US labor market.
The US Labor Department revealed on Wednesday that the US economy added only 181,000 jobs in 2025, a figure weaker than previously reported. However, the White House has downplayed these concerns. According to the BBC, officials argue that the slowdown in population growth resulting from its immigration policies has reduced the number of jobs the US needs to create.
US weekly initial jobless claims (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: Tradingview
Bitcoin’s record 52% crash on March 13, 2020, occurred during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic fears, which anticipated a surge in jobless claims. If economic growth is currently at risk, odds are the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sooner than anticipated. This reduces companies’ cost of capital and eases financing conditions for consumers, which helps explain the stock market strength seen in 2026.
The lack of confidence in Bitcoin is evident through the weak demand for bullish leveraged positions, making the decoupling from traditional markets even more worrisome.
The annualized funding rate on Bitcoin futures held below the neutral 12% threshold for the past four months, signaling fear. Thus, even as the indicator recovered from the negative levels of the prior week, bears continue to have the upper hand. Professional traders remain unwilling to take downside price risk exposure, according to Bitcoin options markets.
BTC 30-day options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch
The BTC options delta skew at Deribit surged to 22% on Thursday as put (sell) instruments traded at a premium. Under normal circumstances, the indicator should range between -6% and +6%, reflecting balanced upside and downside risk aversion. This skew metric last flipped bullish in May 2025 after Bitcoin reclaimed the $93,000 level following a retest of $75,000.
While derivatives metrics reflect weakness, the $5.4 billion average daily trading volume in US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) contradicts speculation that institutional demand is fading. Although it is impossible to predict what will cause buyers to display strength, Bitcoin’s recovery likely depends on improved visibility into the US job market conditions.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
AAVE trades at $106.85 with RSI at 30.21 signaling potential oversold bounce. Technical analysis suggests recovery to $115-120 range in coming weeks despite bearish momentum.
Aave (AAVE) is showing signs of potential recovery as the token trades at $106.85, with technical indicators suggesting an oversold bounce could be on the horizon. Despite recent bearish momentum, our AAVE price prediction indicates a possible rally toward key resistance levels in the near term.
Recent analyst forecasts from January showed optimism for AAVE’s potential. Caroline Bishop predicted an “AAVE price prediction shows potential rally to $190-$195 range by February 2026, driven by oversold RSI recovery and analyst targets up to $213. Current $165 level offers entry opportunity.”
However, with AAVE now trading significantly lower at $106.85, these earlier predictions appear overly optimistic given current market conditions. Joerg Hiller’s analysis suggesting AAVE “could rally 18-25% from current levels” remains more realistic, which would target the $125-135 range from today’s prices.
According to on-chain data and technical metrics, AAVE’s current positioning suggests the token may be approaching oversold conditions that could trigger a relief rally.
AAVE Technical Analysis Breakdown
The technical landscape for AAVE presents a mixed but potentially improving picture:
RSI Analysis: At 30.21, AAVE’s RSI sits in neutral territory but approaching oversold levels below 30, suggesting selling pressure may be exhausting.
Moving Average Structure: AAVE trades well below all major moving averages, with the 7-day SMA at $111.01 providing immediate resistance. The 20-day SMA at $128.58 represents a significant hurdle, while the 200-day SMA at $222.36 shows the extent of the longer-term downtrend.
MACD Signals: The MACD histogram at -0.0000 indicates bearish momentum is flatlining, potentially signaling a momentum shift. The MACD and signal lines converging at -13.8005 suggest we may be approaching a potential bullish crossover.
Bollinger Bands: With AAVE’s %B position at 0.2135, the token trades closer to the lower band ($90.65) than the upper band ($166.51), indicating oversold conditions within the recent range.
Aave Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
A recovery rally could target the immediate resistance at $109.90, followed by the strong resistance at $112.95. Breaking above these levels would open the path toward the 7-day SMA at $111.01 and potentially the 12-day EMA at $117.06.
The ultimate bullish target remains the 20-day SMA at $128.58, which would represent a 20% gain from current levels. This Aave forecast aligns with historical oversold bounces in the DeFi sector.
Bearish Scenario
Failure to hold immediate support at $104.60 could lead to a test of strong support at $102.35. A break below this level might trigger further selling toward the Bollinger Band lower boundary at $90.65.
The daily ATR of $11.48 suggests significant volatility remains, with potential for swift moves in either direction.
Should You Buy AAVE? Entry Strategy
Current levels around $106.85 offer a reasonable risk-reward setup for traders comfortable with volatility. Consider:
Immediate: $105-107 range on any dips
Conservative: Wait for RSI to drop below 30 for confirmed oversold conditions
Stop Loss: Place protective stops below $100 to limit downside risk
Risk Management: Given AAVE’s high volatility (ATR of $11.48), position sizing should account for potential 10%+ daily moves.
Conclusion
Our AAVE price prediction suggests a potential recovery to the $115-120 range over the next 1-2 weeks, based on oversold RSI conditions and converging MACD signals. However, the broader technical picture remains challenging with AAVE trading below all major moving averages.
The medium-term Aave forecast of $120-135 depends on broader DeFi market recovery and successful defense of the $102.35 support level. Traders should remain cautious given the token’s 52% decline from recent highs.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are speculative and should not constitute financial advice. AAVE and all cryptocurrencies carry significant risk of loss. Always conduct your own research and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
LDO trades at $0.33 with RSI at 26.36 indicating oversold territory. Technical analysis suggests potential bounce to resistance levels as Lido DAO approaches critical support zones.
According to recent analysis from Peter Zhang on February 2, 2026: “LDO trades at $0.43 with RSI at 29.44 signaling oversold conditions. Technical analysis suggests potential bounce to $0.53 resistance level within 4 weeks as Lido DAO approaches key support zones.”
While specific analyst predictions have been limited in recent days, on-chain metrics suggest that LDO’s current positioning near oversold territory could present an opportunity for contrarian traders. The token’s technical setup mirrors classic reversal patterns seen in previous market cycles.
LDO Technical Analysis Breakdown
Lido DAO’s current technical picture presents a compelling case for potential upside movement. Trading at $0.33, LDO sits significantly below all major moving averages, with the 20-day SMA at $0.42 representing the first major resistance hurdle.
The RSI at 26.36 places LDO firmly in oversold territory, typically a precursor to bounce attempts. This oversold reading, combined with the token’s position at 0.20 on the Bollinger Bands (very close to the lower band at $0.28), suggests we’re approaching a technical inflection point.
The MACD histogram at effectively zero (-0.0000) indicates that bearish momentum may be exhausting itself, though the negative MACD reading of -0.0592 suggests caution is still warranted. The Stochastic oscillator readings (%K at 23.28, %D at 18.62) further confirm the oversold condition.
Key resistance levels emerge at $0.34 (immediate) and $0.35 (strong), while support holds at $0.32 (immediate) and $0.31 (strong). The daily ATR of $0.04 suggests moderate volatility, providing reasonable risk-reward setups for position sizing.
Lido DAO Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
In a bullish scenario for this Lido DAO forecast, LDO could target the $0.37 level (EMA 12) as the first significant milestone, representing a 12% upside from current levels. A break above $0.35 resistance with volume confirmation could accelerate the move toward the 20-day SMA at $0.42, offering 27% upside potential.
The ultimate bull target remains the $0.53 level (50-day SMA), which would represent a 60% rally from current prices. This target aligns with analyst Peter Zhang’s recent forecast and would require sustained buying pressure and broader market support.
Technical confirmation needed includes RSI moving back above 30, MACD histogram turning positive, and a decisive break above the $0.35 resistance level with increased trading volume.
Bearish Scenario
The bearish case for this LDO price prediction centers on a break below the $0.31 strong support level. Such a move could trigger further selling toward the Bollinger Band lower boundary at $0.28, representing a 15% downside risk.
A more severe scenario could see LDO test psychological support around $0.25, particularly if broader crypto markets face headwinds. The significant distance from the 200-day SMA at $0.86 highlights the token’s weakened long-term technical position.
Risk factors include continued low trading volume ($2.5M on Binance), potential liquidation cascades below key support levels, and any negative developments in the liquid staking sector.
Should You Buy LDO? Entry Strategy
Based on current technical conditions, a staged entry approach appears most prudent for this Lido DAO forecast. Consider initial positions around $0.33-$0.32, with additional buying planned if the token approaches the $0.31 strong support level.
A stop-loss below $0.30 would limit downside risk to approximately 9%, while targeting the $0.37-$0.42 range offers favorable risk-reward ratios. More aggressive traders might wait for confirmation above $0.35 before entering, sacrificing some upside for improved probability.
Position sizing should reflect the token’s elevated volatility and the current uncertain market environment. Consider limiting LDO exposure to 2-3% of total portfolio allocation until clearer directional momentum emerges.
Conclusion
This LDO price prediction suggests that while near-term risks remain, the technical setup favors patient buyers willing to accumulate near current levels. The oversold RSI reading, proximity to Bollinger Band support, and analyst target of $0.53 within four weeks provide a constructive medium-term outlook.
However, the token’s position well below all major moving averages and weak MACD readings counsel against aggressive positioning. A measured approach with proper risk management appears most appropriate as LDO navigates these critical technical levels.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
A simple data-entry error allowed 620,000 nonexistent BTC to appear in user accounts for 20 minutes because trades update a private database first, with onchain settlement happening later.
Around 1,788 BTC worth of trades were executed before the exchange locked everything down. What could have been dismissed as a harmless error turned into a serious operational and regulatory event.
Regulatory filings showed Bithumb held only 175 BTC of its own in Q3 2025, while it held custody of over 42,000 BTC for customers. This highlights how heavily the system depends on accurate internal accounting.
South Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service focused on why faulty internal data could result in executable trades. It raised fundamental questions about safeguards and tradability controls.
Bithumb, one of South Korea’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, ran a regular promotional campaign in early February 2026. However, it turned into a major regulatory concern. What started as a simple internal data-entry mistake briefly displayed hundreds of thousands of “ghost Bitcoin” on user dashboards. Some account holders actually traded those balances, prompting regulators to examine the inner mechanisms of centralized crypto platforms more closely.
This article explores how the ghost Bitcoin incident became a key example of vulnerabilities in exchange accounting. It also discusses the reasons behind South Korea’s accelerated move toward more rigorous, bank-like supervision of virtual asset services.
From a modest promotion to a serious error
Bithumb intended to offer a small reward program, crediting users with a modest amount of Korean won, typically 2,000 won ($1.37) per person. Reward programs are a standard tactic to boost user activity.
Instead, an input mistake caused the system to credit Bitcoin (BTC) rather than fiat. For about 20 minutes, the exchange’s internal ledger reflected roughly 620,000 BTC across hundreds of accounts. The value of the ghost BTC was in billions of dollars, vastly exceeding the exchange’s own holdings and total customer reserves.
Staff quickly detected the problem, froze the affected accounts and reversed the credits. But during that brief period, some users sold the ghost Bitcoin in their accounts, executing trades worth around 1,788 BTC before a full lockdown.
Although payouts were processed, it appears that no tokens actually left the exchange. Later, the platform successfully recovered 93% of the lost value in a mix of Korean won and other cryptocurrencies.
How “ghost Bitcoin” can exist
Centralized exchanges operate differently from decentralized ones. They do not settle every trade onchain in real time. Instead, they update user balances on an internal ledger, a private database, allowing fast execution. Onchain movements are batched and processed later, often during deposits or withdrawals.
This architecture facilitates quick trading, high liquidity and competitive fees, but it relies entirely on the accuracy of the exchange’s internal records. Users essentially trust that these records match real asset holdings.
In this case, the ledger temporarily showed unbacked Bitcoin balances. According to a regulatory filing, Bithumb’s own Bitcoin reserves were surprisingly lean in Q3 2025, holding only 175 BTC compared to the 42,619 BTC it manages for its customers.
Did you know? South Korea was among the first countries to mandate real-name bank accounts for crypto trading, a rule introduced in 2018 to curb anonymous speculation and reduce money laundering risks in digital asset markets.
Why regulators viewed it as a systematic failure
South Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) acted promptly, concluding that the problem was not merely a typing error but that trades proceeded based on faulty internal data.
This raised core questions: How can an exchange enable trading of assets it does not hold? What safeguards could prevent erroneous balances from becoming tradable? And who is accountable when users benefit from such mistakes?
The FSS conducted on-site inspections at Bithumb and indicated that a formal probe could be launched to examine whether any laws were breached. They cited the event as evidence that existing crypto rules may not sufficiently address internal system oversight.
Ripple effects of the Bitcoin promotion error in the industry
The incident’s impact extended well beyond Bithumb, triggering a wave of industry-wide scrutiny. Digital Asset eXchange Alliance, South Korea’s major crypto alliance, responded by launching a thorough audit of internal controls across all member platforms.
Meanwhile, legislators pointed to the event as evidence of systemic vulnerabilities in centralized exchanges. They noted that operational security had failed to keep pace with the market’s rapid growth.
Ultimately, the crisis highlighted a harsh reality: A single exchange’s failure could threaten the stability of the entire ecosystem.
Did you know? In traditional finance, similar “fat-finger” errors have triggered billion-dollar equity market disruptions, including temporary trading halts on major stock exchanges, showing that operational risk is not unique to crypto.
Liability and consumer protection concerns
A key debate arose over the liability of trades executed on erroneous credits. Some users sold BTC quickly before account freezes took effect. Bithumb reported recovering most of the value and absorbing shortfalls with its own funds. Regulators noted that, under applicable laws, users who profited from erroneous credits could potentially be subject to clawback or restitution claims.
This incident exposed ambiguities in centralized crypto platforms. Displayed balances appear definitive to users, yet they remain reversible if systems make an error. The case compelled regulators to address how protections apply when technical failures produce real financial outcomes.
Advancing to “Phase Two” regulation
Regulators stated that the incident exposed regulatory blind spots in earlier digital asset laws. As they pointed out, regulations emphasized custody, Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and the prevention of manipulation but largely overlooked internal ledger management.
The event is now driving discussions regarding enhanced oversight of the crypto ecosystem, including:
Required multi-level approvals for promotions and credits
Stricter, more frequent checks between ledgers and actual reserves
Defined procedures for erroneous trades and reversals
Audit and disclosure standards comparable to traditional finance.
This shift moves beyond token listings or promotions to scrutinize the underlying operational infrastructure.
Did you know? South Korea’s crypto trading volumes frequently spike during overnight US market hours, reflecting how global time zones can amplify the impact of exchange incidents beyond domestic users.
A test of trust in centralized exchanges
Although Bithumb took steps quickly to limit the damage, the impact on its reputation is likely to linger. The incident taught users that a balance displayed on a centralized exchange indicates a claim on the platform’s internal systems. It does not indicate direct ownership of onchain assets.
For regulators, the Bitcoin promotion error pointed to a broader concern. As digital asset markets expand, public trust rests on internal mechanisms that function entirely behind closed doors. Should these protocols falter even briefly, the impact could be severe. South Korea’s response has made it evident that regulators now view ledger integrity in crypto exchanges as a systemic risk rather than just an operational detail.
The “ghost Bitcoin” episode will remain in public memory not primarily for its magnitude but for the critical vulnerability it exposed. In crypto transactions, the invisible accounting systems working behind the scenes are as important as the blockchains functioning underneath.
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Dogecoin shows signs of potential rebound with RSI at neutral 33.76 and strong support at $0.09. Technical indicators suggest DOGE could test $0.10 resistance within weeks. DOGE Price Prediction S…
Dogecoin shows signs of potential rebound with RSI at neutral 33.76 and strong support at $0.09. Technical indicators suggest DOGE could test $0.10 resistance within weeks.
While specific analyst predictions are limited for recent trading sessions, on-chain metrics suggest Dogecoin is finding stability around current price levels. According to market data from major exchanges, DOGE has maintained relatively strong trading volume with $60.8 million in 24-hour Binance spot trading, indicating sustained investor interest despite recent price consolidation.
The absence of recent high-profile predictions from crypto Twitter influencers suggests the market is in a wait-and-see mode, with traders focusing more on technical levels rather than speculative catalysts.
DOGE Technical Analysis Breakdown
Dogecoin’s current technical setup presents a mixed but potentially constructive picture. Trading at $0.09, DOGE sits near the lower Bollinger Band at $0.08, with a Bollinger Band position of 0.24 indicating the price is in the lower quartile of its recent range.
The RSI reading of 33.76 places Dogecoin in neutral territory, suggesting the recent selling pressure may be exhausting without reaching oversold conditions. This could indicate limited downside risk from current levels.
The MACD histogram reading of 0.0000 shows bearish momentum has stalled, while the MACD line at -0.0097 remains negative but appears to be stabilizing. The Stochastic indicators (%K at 36.23, %D at 28.98) suggest potential for a short-term bounce.
Moving averages paint a bearish longer-term picture, with DOGE trading below all major SMAs: SMA 7 ($0.10), SMA 20 ($0.11), SMA 50 ($0.12), and SMA 200 ($0.18). However, the proximity to the SMA 7 suggests a quick recovery above $0.10 could shift near-term sentiment.
Dogecoin Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
In a bullish scenario, DOGE price prediction suggests a move toward $0.10 represents the immediate resistance level that could trigger additional buying interest. A break above this level would target the SMA 7 and potentially extend toward $0.105-$0.11 range, aligning with the SMA 20 and middle Bollinger Band.
Technical confirmation for this Dogecoin forecast would require RSI moving above 40 and MACD histogram turning positive. Volume expansion above current $60 million daily levels would support upward momentum.
Bearish Scenario
The bearish case sees DOGE testing the strong support at $0.09, with a break below potentially targeting the lower Bollinger Band around $0.08. Given the significant gap to longer-term moving averages, any broader crypto market weakness could pressure Dogecoin toward $0.07-$0.08 range.
Risk factors include the wide spread between current price and major SMAs, ongoing bearish MACD readings, and potential for crypto market correlation during volatile periods.
Should You Buy DOGE? Entry Strategy
For those considering DOGE positions, current levels near $0.09 offer a reasonable risk-reward setup. Entry points could be staged:
Primary entry zone: $0.089-$0.091 (current support area)
Secondary entry: $0.085-$0.088 (if lower Bollinger Band is tested)
Stop-loss placement below $0.08 would limit downside risk to approximately 11-12% from current levels. Target profit-taking could begin near $0.10 resistance, with extended targets at $0.105 if momentum builds.
Risk management suggests position sizing should account for crypto volatility, with the daily ATR of $0.01 indicating normal daily moves of roughly 11% at current price levels.
Conclusion
This DOGE price prediction suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for the next 2-4 weeks. While longer-term technical damage is evident from the position below major moving averages, near-term indicators suggest downside risk may be limited around $0.09 support.
The Dogecoin forecast points to $0.10 as a critical level that could determine short-term direction. A sustained move above this resistance would improve the technical picture and potentially target $0.105-$0.11. However, failure to hold $0.09 support could extend weakness toward $0.08.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are speculative and involve significant risk. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
