Blockrise, a Netherlands-based Bitcoin-only startup, has secured a regulatory license that opens the door for fully regulated Bitcoin financial services across Europe.
Issued on Tuesday, the MiCA license allows Blockrise to provide its Bitcoin (BTC) services, including custody solutions, trading and asset management, throughout Europe.
Additionally, Blockrise is debuting a new service that allows its business clients to obtain Bitcoin loans, even though MiCA does not yet regulate cryptocurrency lending services.
Business loans starting at $23,000
“MiCA is the basis for Blockrise to provide Bitcoin-backed loans, only provisioning to business clients in order to stay within the regulatory constraints,” Blockrise CEO Jos Lazet told Cointelegraph.
Starting today, Blockrise will offer a new credit service to all its corporate clients, with business loans starting at 20,000 euros ($23,150).
“Borrowers can collateralize their Bitcoin and open a loan against it,” Lazet said, adding that the current interest rate is 8%, but is revisited every month.
Blockrise CEO Jos Lazet (left) and chief technology officer Jasper Hu. Source: Blockrise
Implemented in full in late 2024, MiCA regulates crypto issuance and trading, though it doesn’t cover many industry services and areas such as lending, decentralized finance (DeFi) and more.
Addressing MiCA’s regulatory scope, the Blockrise CEO expressed optimism about the framework’s potential to scale in the coming years.
“MiCA doesn’t regulate everything yet, however, it is expected to extend over time and include more scopes, such as lending, mining, payments, etc,” Lazet said, adding:
“MiCA is a requirement in order to provide Bitcoin-backed loans, such as the MiCA licenses to custody, transfer and broker.”
Founded in 2017, Blockrise operates a crypto asset management company that offers a “semi-custodial wallet structure.” Unlike with pure self-custody, where users can recover their assets using a private key, Blockrise clients have a digital Blockrise key, which has no value other than accessing BTC on the platform, according to the CEO.
“Blockrise has multiple vaults, so-called Hardware security modules, which securely generate Bitcoin wallets, and the keys cannot be extracted out of the vault. To make a transaction, the user’s Blockrise key is needed,” Lazet said, adding that there’s a dependency on both the user and Blockrise to sign for transactions.
Because Blockrise does not directly custody user funds in the traditional sense, Lazet said assets under management are “a tough measurement.” The company currently oversees about 100 million euros ($116 million) in client assets, he said.
Bitcoin (BTC) is due for a “new uptrend” as a key BTC price metric suggests that the recent drop to $80,000 provided a prime buying opportunity.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple has entered the discount zone, suggesting undervalued market conditions.
BTC bull flag pattern targets a short-term recovery to $96,000.
Bitcoin price is “entering an opportune moment”
Data from CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin is in a buy-the-dip zone. The Puell Multiple, which tracks miners’ daily revenue against the annual average, has returned to the discount zone, following Bitcoin’s latest drop to multi-month lows around $80,500.
When the Puell Multiple falls below 1, it indicates that miners are generating less revenue than usual, suggesting financial pressure and potential capitulation.
At 0.86, the metric signals undervaluation and suggests that the “market is pricing Bitcoin below its fair value,” said CryptoQuant analyst Gaah in a QuickTake analysis on Tuesday.
The last time the indicator was this low was in April 2025, when BTC was trading close to $75,000, preceding a 50% rally to its previous all-time highs of $112,000 reached on May 22.
Bitcoin Puell Multiple and price comparison. Source: CryptoQuant
“Historically, all major correction reversals have started in precisely these discount regions,” the analyst said, adding:
“With the Puell Multiple again below this range, the market signals that we are entering an opportune moment. It is precisely in these moments of pessimism that a new uptrend begins to form.”
Additionally, data from Capriole Investments shows that Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score — a metric that compares BTC’s market value to its realized value and adjusts for volatility — has seen a notable decline, dropping to a two-year low on Nov. 22.
Historically, all previous Bitcoin drawdowns have been accompanied by a notable drop in the MVRV Z-score and have ended with the metric crossing below the green line (see chart below), signaling that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued.
At 1.13, the MVRV Z-score is approaching the green line, indicating that the BTC/USD pair may be forming a local bottom. Similar levels at the end of 2023 preceded an 80% price rally in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicate that the Bitcoin price has risen 8.6% from its local lows of $80,500, as a bull flag suggests a short-term rebound.
The bull flag was in play when the price broke above the upper trendline of the flag at $87,200 on Wednesday. The BTC/USD pair is currently retesting this level to confirm the breakout.
A successful confirmation would clear the way for a rally toward the measured target of the flag at $96,800, a 10.6% rise from the current price.
Another argument for the bullish case is the positive relative strength index, which has increased to 51 from oversold conditions on Saturday, suggesting increasing upward momentum.
However, veteran trader Peter Brandt warned on Tuesday that Bitcoin’s rebound to $89,00 could be a “dead cat bounce” before traders see another leg downward.
As Cointelegraph reported, a final leverage flush below $80,000 is still possible, as the recent liquidation event may not yet be over.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
AAVE price prediction targets $208-$246 recovery over next month as technical indicators show oversold bounce potential from current $176 support level.
Aave (AAVE) is showing classic oversold recovery signals at current levels around $176, with multiple technical indicators aligning for a potential 18-39% upside move over the coming weeks. Our comprehensive AAVE price prediction analysis suggests the DeFi lending protocol’s token is positioning for a significant bounce from oversold conditions.
AAVE Price Prediction Summary
• AAVE short-term target (1 week): $194-$208 (+10-18%)
• Aave medium-term forecast (1 month): $208-$246 range (+18-39%)
• Key level to break for bullish continuation: $184.78 (SMA 20 resistance)
• Critical support if bearish: $147.13 (immediate support level)
Recent Aave Price Predictions from Analysts
The analyst community shows remarkable consensus on AAVE’s recovery potential. Recent predictions from CoinCodex and Blockchain.News are converging around similar upside targets, with the most conservative AAVE price prediction from CoinCodex targeting $194.60 representing a 16.99% gain over 5 days.
Blockchain.News has been particularly bullish with their Aave forecast, consistently targeting the $208.54 level across multiple reports, citing oversold conditions as the primary catalyst. Their most ambitious AAVE price target reaches $256.24 for a 30-day timeframe, representing a potential 45% upside from current levels.
The consensus among analysts suggests AAVE has found a technical floor around current levels, with oversold RSI readings and positive MACD histogram divergence supporting recovery scenarios across all recent predictions.
AAVE Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Oversold Bounce
Current Aave technical analysis reveals several bullish divergences supporting our recovery thesis. The daily RSI at 43.32 sits in neutral territory but has been trending higher from oversold levels below 30 just weeks ago. This RSI recovery pattern often precedes meaningful price bounces in cryptocurrency markets.
The MACD histogram at 1.7854 shows the first signs of bullish momentum returning to AAVE, with the histogram moving positive despite the MACD line remaining below zero. This early momentum shift typically occurs 1-2 weeks before significant price moves materialize.
AAVE’s position within the Bollinger Bands at 0.39 indicates the token is trading in the lower portion of its recent range, providing substantial room for mean reversion toward the middle band at $184.78. Trading volume of $13.2 million on Binance provides adequate liquidity to support a meaningful recovery move.
Aave Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for AAVE
Our primary AAVE price target focuses on the $194-$208 zone, representing the convergence of multiple resistance levels. The first major hurdle sits at $184.78 (SMA 20), which AAVE must reclaim to confirm the oversold bounce thesis.
Breaking above $194 would target the $208.54 level identified by multiple analysts, representing a key Fibonacci retracement level from AAVE’s recent decline. Success at $208 opens the path to $232.25 (immediate resistance) and ultimately the $246-$256 range for our extended Aave forecast.
The strongest bullish scenario sees AAVE reclaiming the $211.02 level (SMA 50), which would signal a complete reversal of the recent downtrend and target the $287 strong resistance zone over a 2-3 month timeframe.
Bearish Risk for Aave
The primary risk to our bullish AAVE price prediction centers around the $147.13 immediate support level. A break below this critical support would invalidate the oversold bounce scenario and target the $146.08 lower Bollinger Band.
Further downside beyond $146 would target the psychological $125-$130 zone, representing AAVE’s 52-week low area. Such a scenario would require a broader DeFi market selloff or specific negative developments affecting Aave protocol fundamentals.
Volume expansion on any break below $147 would be particularly concerning and would necessitate a reassessment of our medium-term Aave forecast.
Should You Buy AAVE Now? Entry Strategy
The current price zone around $176 presents an attractive entry opportunity for those bullish on our AAVE price prediction. The optimal buy or sell AAVE decision favors accumulation between $174-$178, with the 24-hour low at $174.20 representing an ideal entry point.
Risk management requires a stop-loss below $147 to protect against the bearish scenario outlined above. This provides a favorable 2:1 risk-reward ratio targeting the initial $208 AAVE price target.
Position sizing should account for AAVE’s daily ATR of $16.24, suggesting potential 9% daily moves in either direction. Conservative traders might consider dollar-cost averaging into positions over 1-2 weeks to reduce timing risk.
AAVE Price Prediction Conclusion
Our analysis supports a medium confidence AAVE price prediction targeting $194-$208 within 1-2 weeks, extending to $208-$246 over the next month. The combination of oversold technical conditions, positive MACD momentum, and analyst consensus creates a compelling case for AAVE recovery from current levels.
Key confirmation signals include a break above $184.78 (SMA 20) and sustained volume above $15 million daily. Invalidation occurs below $147.13 support, which would require reassessing the bullish Aave forecast.
The 4-week timeframe provides sufficient duration for oversold conditions to normalize while allowing AAVE to benefit from any broader DeFi market recovery. Traders should monitor Bitcoin and Ethereum correlation as additional confirmation factors for this prediction.
Zcash surged more than 10x within weeks, briefly returning to large-cap territory with a valuation above $10 billion.
On Coinbase, ZEC became the most-searched asset in mid-November, surpassing both Bitcoin and XRP.
The rally is supported by several real shifts: the 2024 halving, rising shielded balances and the NU6.1 holder-controlled funding model.
Analysts are divided, with some calling the move a blow-off top and others viewing it as a repricing driven by renewed interest in “responsible” privacy coins amid stricter AML rules.
Zcash wasn’t expected to become a major story this market cycle. For most of the past few years, the privacy coin remained in the background while Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP) and a rotating cast of memecoins dominated headlines and trading activity.
Then November arrived.
In just a few days, Zcash (ZEC) climbed to the top of Coinbase’s search rankings. A screenshot shared by Zcash adviser Thor Torrens showed ZEC drawing around 52,000 searches on the platform. This was ahead of both XRP and Bitcoin, which recorded roughly 41,000 and 39,000 searches, respectively.
Zcash tops search charts on Coinbase
At the same time, ZEC’s price had already surged, delivering a four-digit percentage gain over the past year and briefly pushing the token back into the large-cap bracket.
For a coin many traders had written off as a relic of the previous privacy cycle, the question now is simple: How did Zcash go from low-profile to most-searched in a single month?
Did you know? Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox is a longtime cypherpunk who worked on DigiCash in the 1990s and helped create projects such as Tahoe-LAFS, the BLAKE2 hash function and the concept known as Zooko’s Triangle long before ZEC launched.
How Zcash slipped into low-profile relic status
For readers who haven’t looked at it in years, it is worth remembering what Zcash actually is.
Launched in 2016 as a Bitcoin-style proof-of-work (PoW) chain with a hard cap of 21 million coins, it was built around cutting-edge zero-knowledge proofs. These allow users to send either transparent transactions, similar to Bitcoin, or fully shielded transactions where amounts and addresses are hidden but still mathematically verifiable.
For a while, it was treated as a kind of “science project with a price,” backed by heavyweight cryptographers and privacy advocates.
Then the spotlight moved on. As regulators increased scrutiny of privacy coins, several major exchanges delisted or restricted them, and Monero (XMR) gradually became the default choice for die-hard privacy users.
ZEC slid down the market capitalization rankings, daily volumes thinned out, and social chatter faded. By early 2024, despite having survived two halving events and multiple network upgrades, it looked more like a legacy token from an earlier era than a contender for a new narrative.
The slow turnaround: Halvings, shielded usage and a governance reset
The November spike did not come out of nowhere. Zcash spent the past two years quietly reshaping its underlying story, while most of the market was not paying attention.
On the monetary side, the most recent halving on Nov. 23, 2024, cut the block reward from 3.125 ZEC to 1.5625 ZEC, reducing daily new issuance from roughly 3,600 coins to about 1,800. With a fixed supply of 21 million and halving cycles now running on a tighter post-Blossom schedule, ZEC began to be discussed in “sound money” terms by parts of the community.
Under the hood, actual usage was shifting as well. Coinbase research notes that the amount of ZEC held in shielded addresses climbed from about 1.7 million coins to roughly 4.5 million over the past year, with more than 1 million coins moving into shielded pools within a three-week window.
Overall, more than 27% of the circulating supply is now shielded, and other trackers show the peak shielded supply briefly rising above 5 million coins. This suggests that users are not just trading the ticker.
At the same time, the new funding and governance structure went live. The NU6.1 upgrade, activated on Nov. 24, 2025, allocates 8% of block rewards to community grants and 12% to a coinholder-controlled fund. This gives ZEC holders a formal say in how millions of dollars in development capital are deployed between now and the next halving in 2028.
Together, these changes laid the groundwork for a rerating long before search volumes surged.
Did you know? The Electric Coin Company commissioned Rand Europe to study criminal use of Zcash. The researchers found that ZEC had only a minor presence on the dark web and that Bitcoin remained the dominant currency for illicit activity.
Privacy revival, Monero exploit and new AML rules
The spark for all this was a mix of narrative and timing.
Privacy suddenly returned to focus after a high-profile exploit in Monero shook confidence in the sector’s default choice. Commentators began looking for an alternative with active governance and a clear upgrade path. With a scheduled network update underway and a halving narrative in the background, Zcash positioned itself as a candidate to fill that vacuum.
At the same time, regulators continued tightening oversight on opaque money flows. New Anti-Money Laundering (AML) rules, stronger Travel Rule enforcement and increased scrutiny of mixers made “total darkness” harder to defend, whereas Zcash’s model of optional privacy and auditable view keys appeared more compatible with compliance-minded institutions.
A rival stumbling, a returning theme and a protocol that could be positioned as a “responsible” privacy coin gave ZEC a fresh story just as traders were looking for the next big narrative.
About the Coinbase surge: What 52,000 searches really mean
According to figures shared by Zcash adviser Torrens, ZEC logged around 52,000 individual searches on Coinbase in mid-November, compared with roughly 41,000 for XRP and 39,000 for Bitcoin.
That is a clear snapshot of retail curiosity, with tens of thousands of users typing “Zcash” into the search bar on one of the largest fiat on-ramps in the world.
Off-exchange, social data from X and Reddit showed a similar rise in mentions. Taken together, November was the month Zcash reentered retail consciousness.
Blow-off top or real repricing
Look only at the chart, and it is easy to call this a blow-off top. From late September to early November, ZEC climbed from the mid-$70s to more than $700, at one point rising over 1,000% this fall and more than 500% in a single month, before sliding about 30% from its local high.
Coinbase notes that Zcash futures volume approached $10 billion on Nov. 7, and derivatives platforms have reported rising open interest as traders piled into the move. For anyone who has lived through past altcoin manias, those indicators often appear in periods of heavy speculative positioning.
But there is also a case that November was more of a repricing rather than a pure mania spike. Supply growth has already been cut in half by the 2024 halving, shielded usage now accounts for more than a quarter of the circulating supply, and NU6.1 has introduced a clearer and more transparent funding model through the next halving cycle.
If those fundamentals hold, some analysts argue that any sharp correction could represent a reset within a higher range, although outcomes remain uncertain. The hard part, as always, is separating narrative from lasting change in real time.
Did you know? Before Zcash launched in October 2016, futures contracts tied to the coin on over-the-counter (OTC) platforms jumped from about $18 to $261 in six weeks, a roughly 1,300% gain driven purely by anticipation of its privacy technology.
What Zcash’s November moment tells us about crypto narratives
Zcash’s November moment says as much about the broader crypto market as it does about one older token.
Markets have a habit of rediscovering assets that quietly improve their economics, strengthen governance and wait for the right macro story to catch up. In this case, the story centered on privacy. Rising concern over data exposure, tighter AML enforcement and fatigue with fully transparent chains created space for a “partial privacy” alternative that did not appear to be an immediate regulatory target.
For readers, the takeaway is twofold.
First, exchange search data is a useful early signal for where retail attention is drifting, but it often appears just as fear of missing out (FOMO) peaks.
Second, themes never truly disappear in crypto; they cycle. If Zcash can turn a legacy reputation into a fresh narrative, other forgotten categories may not be as dead as their charts suggest.
The SEC introduced new post-shutdown guidelines that explain how registration statements, including crypto ETF filings, progress through Sections 8(a) and 461 of the Securities Act.
Generic listing standards approved in September 2025 removed the need for individual 19(b) approvals for qualifying crypto ETPs.
The government shutdown created a backlog of more than 900 filings, pushing issuers to rely on the automatic 20-day effectiveness mechanism under Section 8(a).
The new SEC instructions allow issuers to choose between automatic effectiveness or requesting accelerated effectiveness under Rule 461 for faster launches.
After years of slow progress and periodic regulatory pauses, the US Securities and Exchange Commission has released new guidelines that may speed up the approval timeline for cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
These updates follow an extended, record-long government shutdown that halted progress on more than 900 pending registration filings across financial markets. As federal operations resumed, the SEC issued technical guidance outlining how issuers can advance ETF applications under Sections 8(a) and 461 of the Securities Act of 1933.
This article explains what changed, why it matters and how the updated procedures could shorten timelines for new crypto ETF launches in the US.
The regulatory freeze: A look back
For most of 2025, ETF issuers, especially those focused on crypto, were already dealing with a heavy procedural load. Following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 and Ether ETFs in May 2024, the filing activity has surged, coming from firms seeking to list products tracking altcoins such as Solana (SOL), XRP (XRP), Chainlink (LINK), Dogecoin (DOGE) and others.
The regulatory process for many of these products still required individualized review under Section 19(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. This meant issuers depended on the SEC to publish proposed rule changes, open public comment periods and issue approval or denial orders. Timelines varied widely.
Pathway to generic listing standards
On Sep. 17, 2025, the SEC approved generic listing standards for commodity-based trust shares on Nasdaq, the Chicago Board Options Exchange BZX Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange Arca. This changed the regulatory process by removing the need for individual Section 19(b) rule change approvals for every qualifying crypto ETF.
This streamlining removed the years-long bottleneck that had previously stalled products, but the immediate push to launch was halted by the government shutdown.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan’s X post
The shutdown backlog
During the 43-day shutdown, more than 900 filings were submitted but could not be processed. ETF issuers were left with no review mechanisms, no staff communication and no way to advance pending filings.
In this environment of regulatory paralysis, the only path forward for some issuers was to use an existing mechanism: the automatic 20-day effectiveness provision under Section 8(a) of the Securities Act of 1933. This allowed registration statements filed without a delay-in-time clause to automatically become effective after 20 days if the SEC did not take action or object. This mechanism was helpful for the launch of several funds, including Canary Capital’s spot XRP ETF.
The crisis and the reliance on a technical workaround highlighted the need for a more efficient and formal review process.
This approach was referenced directly in the SEC guidance published after operations resumed. Once the SEC reopened, staff was instructed to resume work promptly and orderly. Issuers immediately requested clarity on how filings submitted during the shutdown would be sequenced or amended.
The SEC’s new guidance was applied to issuers such as Bitwise, which had an XRP ETF filing pending but had not yet completed the Section 8(a) process.
The post-shutdown guidance created two primary mechanisms to move stalled applications toward launch.
Automatic 20-day effectiveness
As a remedy for filings submitted during the shutdown, the guidance confirmed that registration statements filed without a deferral would gain automatic effectiveness after 20 days under Section 8(a). The SEC also clarified that staff would not recommend enforcement action even if the filing does not include Rule 430A information.
Request for acceleration via amendment
For issuers who want a faster approval timeline or who want to restore active regulatory oversight, the SEC guidance clarified that it may add an amendment deferral and then formally request acceleration under Rule 461. This allows issuers to move beyond the automatic 20-day countdown and seek accelerated effectiveness. The SEC also noted that the division would review filings in the order in which they were received.
Did you know? The generic listing standards apply only to exchange-traded products (ETPs) that hold an underlying commodity, such as digital assets, that trades on an ISG-member exchange or is subject to a regulated futures market with appropriate surveillance sharing.
What this means for crypto ETF issuers moving forward
The SEC’s guidance does not guarantee faster approval for every crypto ETF. Substantive legal review remains unchanged. What has changed is the friction in the process. The automatic-effectiveness mechanism under Section 8(a) now plays a larger role because filings submitted without a delay clause during the shutdown can become effective after the standard 20-day period unless the SEC intervenes.
Rule 461 allows an issuer to request that the SEC accelerate the effective date of its registration statement to a specific time. To do this, an issuer must first amend its filing to return it to the standard delayed status and then submit a formal Rule 461 request to the SEC. This request is not a mere formality. It serves as confirmation that the issuer, underwriters and advisers are fully aware of, and accept, their legal and antifraud liabilities under the Securities Act.
By combining a Rule 461 acceleration request with the new generic listing standards, which bypass the older Section 19(b) delays, issuers have streamlined the entire process. This combination makes the path for compliant altcoin ETPs quicker and more predictable, allowing managers to target specific launch windows with greater certainty.
Why speed doesn’t mean safety
While the SEC has accelerated the timing of approvals, it has also emphasized that core investor protection rules have not been relaxed.
The primary takeaway for issuers is that fast approval does not reduce their legal responsibility. The SEC’s post-shutdown guidance clarifies that the liability and antifraud provisions of the federal securities laws still apply to all registration statements, including those that become effective automatically under Section 8(a).
This is backed by the core of the Securities Act of 1933: Section 11 and Section 12(a)(2). These rules impose strict liability under Section 11 and a heightened liability standard under Section 12(a)(2) for any material false statements or omissions in the registration documents. In simple terms, if the prospectus is misleading, the issuer is liable, and investors do not have to prove that the company acted carelessly or intentionally.
The burden of ensuring accuracy remains with ETF providers, who must conduct thorough internal checks and due diligence to meet this high standard, especially when timelines are compressed.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) gap appears when the price of Bitcoin (BTC) changes between Friday’s closing price and Monday’s opening price on the CME Bitcoin futures market. Price movement over the weekend, when no CME trading takes place, creates a disconnect on the chart. These gaps often draw attention because they tend to be filled once the market reopens.
Let’s look at an example. If BTC closes at $109,880 on the CME on Friday evening and the price rallies over the weekend, the market might reopen on Monday at $110,380. That creates a $500 gap.
No trading occurs during this period, and on financial charts, it shows up as a literal blank space.
CME gaps fall into two categories:
Gap up: BTC opens higher on Monday than it closed on Friday. This signals weekend buying pressure.
Gap down: BTC opens lower than Friday’s close, indicating that weekend selling was stronger.
Did you know? CME traces its roots to the Chicago Butter and Egg Board, founded in 1898. It was reorganized and renamed the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in 1919.
Why do Bitcoin CME futures gaps matter?
So, if CME gaps are simply blank spaces on the chart, why do they matter for traders?
The first point is that CME Bitcoin futures are a major channel for institutional investors, hedge funds, pension funds and other traditional finance participants. The CME allows them to gain exposure to Bitcoin in a regulated environment, which is different from the conditions on unregulated crypto exchanges.
This is because the CME operates under Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight, which provides legal clarity for large institutions. Since CME Bitcoin futures are cash-settled, investors do not need to handle BTC directly, which removes concerns about custody, private keys or security.
In addition, the CME is a long-established derivatives platform that deals in far more than crypto. Institutions are already familiar with its infrastructure, and they benefit from the deep liquidity that helps them execute large orders efficiently.
What this means for price action
With such large amounts of capital involved, CME gaps can create both opportunities and risks for experienced market participants. These gaps can offer context about how the market has behaved and how traders interpret short-term price dynamics.
BTC tends to fill these gaps relatively quickly, and this can lead to several knock-on effects:
Price corrections can occur as liquidity returns when the CME market reopens.
CME gaps can act as strong support or resistance levels, helping traders identify potential breakout areas or bounce zones.
If BTC does not fill the gap quickly, it may suggest that momentum is strong in the opposite direction. When the price moves away from the gap instead of toward it, it is worth monitoring closely.
Did you know? In October 2025, CME Group became the largest crypto futures exchange by open interest, surpassing Binance with a market share of over 23%.
Recent examples of Bitcoin CME gaps
Since this phenomenon occurs every weekend, CME gaps are frequent.
Here is an example:
On Nov. 18, 2025, BTC filled an anticipated $92,000 CME gap. Analysts noted that once the gap was filled, the immediate downside for BTC appeared limited in the short term.
This happened because the gap was filled almost immediately after the market opened, suggesting a potential support zone following a week of downward selling pressure.
While near-instant gap fills can offer more clarity for traders, this type of quick reaction does not always occur.
For example, on July 25, 2025, the CME BTC futures market reopened with a notable $1,770 gap. In this case, the gap did not fill for more than 16 hours.
This type of delay is rare and raises concerns about market structure and efficiency. For traders, it introduced psychological pressure and increased uncertainty around buying decisions for both institutional and retail participants.
In simple terms, this disconnect adds another layer of risk because it makes Bitcoin’s short-term volatility harder to anticipate.
Did you know? In October 2025, CME futures trading volume reached a new high of 26.3 million contracts, with micro Bitcoin futures up 60%. This sharp growth reflects continued demand, particularly from institutions that prefer regulated trading channels.
To do this, the first step is identifying the gap. This involves checking CME BTC futures charts to locate any weekend price disconnects.
Bitcoin price snapshot
Using this information, traders often look for clues about price direction:
When the current BTC price is above a gap, some traders watch for signs of a possible move downward toward that level.
When the price is below a gap, traders may monitor for signs of a possible move upward toward the gap.
These are general observations rather than guaranteed outcomes. They involve risk, and price behavior can vary depending on broader market conditions.
Risk management is important in any trading approach, and many traders use position sizing and stop-loss methods as part of their overall strategy.
Added considerations
Gap sizing: Larger gaps can result in wider price ranges, which some traders consider important when assessing market behavior.
Volume confirmation: Large gaps often require strong trading volume to support the move and reduce the chance of a reversal.
Market context: In a ranging market, the probability of a gap fill is typically higher. In stronger trending markets, gaps may take longer to resolve.
It is important to remember that while more than 98% of gaps eventually fill, the timing varies. Many close within hours, while others can take months. For example, the gap between $78,000 and $80,700 in November 2024 took nearly four months to resolve.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) gap appears when the price of Bitcoin (BTC) changes between Friday’s closing price and Monday’s opening price on the CME Bitcoin futures market. Price movement over the weekend, when no CME trading takes place, creates a disconnect on the chart. These gaps often draw attention because they tend to be filled once the market reopens.
Let’s look at an example. If BTC closes at $109,880 on the CME on Friday evening and the price rallies over the weekend, the market might reopen on Monday at $110,380. That creates a $500 gap.
No trading occurs during this period, and on financial charts, it shows up as a literal blank space.
CME gaps fall into two categories:
Gap up: BTC opens higher on Monday than it closed on Friday. This signals weekend buying pressure.
Gap down: BTC opens lower than Friday’s close, indicating that weekend selling was stronger.
Did you know? CME traces its roots to the Chicago Butter and Egg Board, founded in 1898. It was reorganized and renamed the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in 1919.
Why do Bitcoin CME futures gaps matter?
So, if CME gaps are simply blank spaces on the chart, why do they matter for traders?
The first point is that CME Bitcoin futures are a major channel for institutional investors, hedge funds, pension funds and other traditional finance participants. The CME allows them to gain exposure to Bitcoin in a regulated environment, which is different from the conditions on unregulated crypto exchanges.
This is because the CME operates under Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight, which provides legal clarity for large institutions. Since CME Bitcoin futures are cash-settled, investors do not need to handle BTC directly, which removes concerns about custody, private keys or security.
In addition, the CME is a long-established derivatives platform that deals in far more than crypto. Institutions are already familiar with its infrastructure, and they benefit from the deep liquidity that helps them execute large orders efficiently.
What this means for price action
With such large amounts of capital involved, CME gaps can create both opportunities and risks for experienced market participants. These gaps can offer context about how the market has behaved and how traders interpret short-term price dynamics.
BTC tends to fill these gaps relatively quickly, and this can lead to several knock-on effects:
Price corrections can occur as liquidity returns when the CME market reopens.
CME gaps can act as strong support or resistance levels, helping traders identify potential breakout areas or bounce zones.
If BTC does not fill the gap quickly, it may suggest that momentum is strong in the opposite direction. When the price moves away from the gap instead of toward it, it is worth monitoring closely.
Did you know? In October 2025, CME Group became the largest crypto futures exchange by open interest, surpassing Binance with a market share of over 23%.
Recent examples of Bitcoin CME gaps
Since this phenomenon occurs every weekend, CME gaps are frequent.
Here is an example:
On Nov. 18, 2025, BTC filled an anticipated $92,000 CME gap. Analysts noted that once the gap was filled, the immediate downside for BTC appeared limited in the short term.
This happened because the gap was filled almost immediately after the market opened, suggesting a potential support zone following a week of downward selling pressure.
While near-instant gap fills can offer more clarity for traders, this type of quick reaction does not always occur.
For example, on July 25, 2025, the CME BTC futures market reopened with a notable $1,770 gap. In this case, the gap did not fill for more than 16 hours.
This type of delay is rare and raises concerns about market structure and efficiency. For traders, it introduced psychological pressure and increased uncertainty around buying decisions for both institutional and retail participants.
In simple terms, this disconnect adds another layer of risk because it makes Bitcoin’s short-term volatility harder to anticipate.
Did you know? In October 2025, CME futures trading volume reached a new high of 26.3 million contracts, with micro Bitcoin futures up 60%. This sharp growth reflects continued demand, particularly from institutions that prefer regulated trading channels.
To do this, the first step is identifying the gap. This involves checking CME BTC futures charts to locate any weekend price disconnects.
Bitcoin price snapshot
Using this information, traders often look for clues about price direction:
When the current BTC price is above a gap, some traders watch for signs of a possible move downward toward that level.
When the price is below a gap, traders may monitor for signs of a possible move upward toward the gap.
These are general observations rather than guaranteed outcomes. They involve risk, and price behavior can vary depending on broader market conditions.
Risk management is important in any trading approach, and many traders use position sizing and stop-loss methods as part of their overall strategy.
Added considerations
Gap sizing: Larger gaps can result in wider price ranges, which some traders consider important when assessing market behavior.
Volume confirmation: Large gaps often require strong trading volume to support the move and reduce the chance of a reversal.
Market context: In a ranging market, the probability of a gap fill is typically higher. In stronger trending markets, gaps may take longer to resolve.
It is important to remember that while more than 98% of gaps eventually fill, the timing varies. Many close within hours, while others can take months. For example, the gap between $78,000 and $80,700 in November 2024 took nearly four months to resolve.
Glassnode releases its latest Bitcoin Vector report, offering insights into market trends and on-chain analysis. The report is a collaboration between Swissblock and Willy Woo.
The latest edition of the Bitcoin Vector report, presented by Glassnode in collaboration with Swissblock and renowned analyst Willy Woo, provides a comprehensive analysis of the current market trends and on-chain data. Released on November 24, 2025, the report aims to offer valuable insights for investors and enthusiasts seeking to understand the evolving dynamics of the Bitcoin (BTC) market.
Collaboration and Expertise
This latest report is a product of a collaborative effort between Swissblock and Willy Woo, known for their expertise in blockchain analysis and market insights. Glassnode, a leader in blockchain analytics, continues to deliver high-quality research, enhancing the understanding of digital asset markets.
Key Insights and Analysis
The Bitcoin Vector report delves into various aspects of the Bitcoin market, including price movements, market sentiment, and on-chain metrics. By analyzing these factors, the report aims to provide a holistic view of the current market conditions, helping stakeholders make informed decisions.
In addition to market analysis, the report also explores the impact of macroeconomic factors on Bitcoin’s price and the broader cryptocurrency market. This includes examining how global economic trends and regulatory developments may influence market dynamics.
Relevance to Investors
For investors and analysts, the Bitcoin Vector report is a valuable resource that offers detailed insights into the market forces shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory. By subscribing to Glassnode’s analysis, readers can stay updated with the latest trends and potential future scenarios in the cryptocurrency space.
For more detailed information, readers can access the full report on the Glassnode website.
Bitcoin is attempting a recovery from $80,600, which several analysts said was a bottom.
Several altcoins are struggling to start a rebound, indicating a lack of demand from buyers.
Bitcoin (BTC) dropped about 8% last week, but lower levels attracted buyers. The bulls are striving to push the price above $88,000 at the start of the new week. Inflows of $238.4 million into spot BTC exchange-traded funds on Friday, according to Farside Investors’ data, indicate that the bulls are again becoming active.
Analysts at wealth manager Swissblock said in a post on X that the sharply declining risk-off signal indicates a reduction in selling pressure, suggesting that the “worst of the capitulation” may be over for now. They added that fading selling pressure and a weaker second selling wave will confirm a more reliable bottom.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said in a post on X that BTC may chop below $90,000 and possibly fall into the low $80,000 levels. The ex-BitMEX chief executive said he expected the $80,000 level to hold.
Could BTC and the major altcoins start a sustained recovery, or will higher levels attract sellers? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
S&P 500 Index price prediction
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) turned up from the 6,550 support on Friday, and the bulls were attempting to extend the recovery on Monday.
The relief rally is expected to face selling in the zone between the moving averages and the resistance line. If the price turns down from the overhead zone, the bears will again try to pull the index below 6,550. If they can pull it off, the index could plummet to the 6,350 level.
On the other hand, a break and close above the resistance line indicates that the corrective phase may be over. The index could then retest the all-time high at 6,920.
US Dollar Index price prediction
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been facing resistance near the 100.50 level, but a positive sign is that the bulls have not ceded much ground to the bears.
The gradually upsloping moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI) in the positive territory indicate the path of least resistance is to the upside. If the price breaks above the 100.50 level, the index could surge to the 102 level. A close above the 102 resistance will complete a rounding bottom pattern, signaling a potential trend change.
Sellers will have to pull the price below the 20-day exponential moving average (99.62) to weaken the bullish momentum. The index could then drop to the 50-day simple moving average (98.81).
Bitcoin price prediction
BTC is attempting a recovery after having plunged to $80,600 on Friday, but higher levels are likely to attract sellers.
The 20-day EMA ($94,620) is likely to act as a major hurdle on the upside. If the Bitcoin price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, it suggests that the sentiment remains negative and the bears are selling on rallies. That heightens the risk of a drop to the $73,777 level, where the bulls are expected to step in.
Buyers will have to push and maintain the price above the 20-day EMA to gain strength. The BTC/USDT pair may then climb to the psychological level of $100,000.
Ether price prediction
Ether (ETH) is attempting to start a recovery, which may encounter significant resistance in the zone between the 20-day EMA ($3,148) and $3,350.
If the price turns down from the overhead zone, the bears will attempt to resume the downtrend. A break and close below $2,623 signals the start of the next leg of the downmove to $2,400 and then to the $2,111 level.
Instead, if buyers thrust the Ether price above $3,350, the ETH/USDT pair could reach the 50-day SMA ($3,659). A close above the 50-day SMA suggests the bulls are back in the game.
XRP price prediction
XRP (XRP) rebounded off the support line on Saturday, indicating that the bulls are trying to keep the price inside the descending channel pattern.
The bears are unlikely to give up easily and will try to halt the relief rally at the moving averages. If the price turns down sharply from the moving averages, the sellers will again attempt to pull the XRP/USDT pair to $1.61.
On the contrary, a break above the moving averages could push the price to the downtrend line. Buyers will have to pierce and sustain the XRP price above the downtrend line to suggest a potential trend change.
BNB price prediction
BNB (BNB) is attempting a recovery after hitting $790 on Friday, but the sellers are expected to enter at higher levels.
If the price turns down sharply from the $860, it suggests that the bears have flipped the level into resistance. That increases the possibility of a break below $790. The BNB/USDT pair could then plummet to $730.
The 20-day EMA ($920) remains the key overhead resistance to watch out for. A break and close above the 20-day EMA suggests that the market has rejected the break below $860. The BNB price may then rally to $1,019.
Solana price prediction
Solana (SOL) is trying to take support at the $126 level, but the shallow rebound suggests a lack of aggressive buying by the bulls.
If the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA ($145), it suggests that the bears are active at higher levels. The SOL/USDT pair then risks a drop below the $126 support. If that happens, the Solana price could tumble to $110 and subsequently to $95.
Contrarily, a break and close above the 20-day EMA indicates that the bulls are attempting a comeback. The pair could then attempt a rally to the 50-day SMA ($174).
The positive divergence on the RSI suggests that the selling pressure is diminishing. Buyers will have to drive the Dogecoin price above the 20-day EMA (0.16) to signal strength. The DOGE/USDT pair may then climb to the 50-day SMA ($0.18).
Alternatively, if the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, the bears will again try to drag the pair below $0.14. If they succeed, the pair could collapse to the Oct. 10 low of $0.10.
Cardano price prediction
Cardano (ADA) is attempting to take support at $0.38, but the weak bounce suggests the bears are in no mood to let go.
If the price turns down from the current level and breaks below $0.38, the ADA/USDT pair could resume its downtrend. The Cardano price could descend to the Oct. 10 low of $0.27.
The $0.50 resistance is the crucial level to watch out for on the upside. If the price turns down from $0.50, it suggests that the bears remain in control. That puts the $0.38 level at risk of breaking down.
Conversely, a close above $0.50 indicates that the bears are losing their grip. The pair could then rally toward the 50-day SMA ($0.60).
Bitcoin Cash price prediction
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) turned up sharply from the $443 support on Friday and soared above the resistance line of the falling wedge pattern.
The bears are trying to pull the price back into the wedge, but the bulls have held their ground. If the price turns up and breaks above $568, it signals the start of a new up move to $615 and then $651.
This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the Bitcoin Cash price turns down and breaks below the moving averages. Such a move suggests the break above the resistance line may have been a bull trap. The BCH/USDT pair could then retest the $443 support.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
A $314 million Hyperliquid token unlock scheduled for Saturday puts the perpetuals decentralized exchange (DEX) under its most significant tokenomics spotlight yet, as one community member calls for clearer communication on how the core contributor unlock will be managed.
Tokenomist data shows that on Saturday, Hyperliquid will release 9.92 million HYPE tokens, which is 2.66% of the supply. The tokens are worth about $314 million at the time of writing. The HYPE allocation will be released in a “cliff unlock,” which means they will be released all at once.
The unlock ignited public conversations among holders, including an open letter from an X user named Andy, who urged the team to address the community before the tokens are unlocked. At the time of writing, HYPE trades at $31, a 23% decline over the past month.
“The team and airdrop recipients finally able to sell is going to ruffle feathers until you address the community head on,” Andy wrote. “The entire market has PTSD from the destruction on charts of VC-backed vapor.”
Hyperliquid leads the weekly unlock list with $314 million scheduled for Saturday. Source: Tokenomist
Arthur Hayes says to expect sell pressure
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes issued a blunt warning that the upcoming unlocking event introduces unavoidable selling pressure for the token. He said that insider assurances cannot eliminate uncertainty
“Even if the team pinky swears to not sell, there is nothing holding them to that. So you have to assume a >0% amount of daily sell pressure,” Hayes wrote.
He pointed to a sharp drop in Hyperliquid’s price-to-fully diluted valuation (FDV) ratio since July as proof that traders are already discounting the forthcoming dilution risk, unless revenue growth continues to outpace the increase in supply.
While some community members are calling for more open communication, others argue that the Hyperliquid team is not obligated to disclose what they will do with their tokens.
One X user said that disclosing the allocation amount and timing was “sufficient” and that the team can decide what they will do with their tokens internally.
Another community member criticized the open letter and called it “desperation” and “borrowed conviction.” He said that out of all the teams, the Hyperliquid members have “definitely earned” their tokens.
Perpetual DEX volumes remain consistent in November
Despite a broader crypto market slump, perpetual DEXs saw consistent daily volumes ranging from $28 billion to $60 billion, according to DefiLlama.
The top four perp DEXs — Lighter, Aster, Hyperliquid and edgeX — saw a combined trading volume of over $1 trillion in the last 30 days. Lighter led the group with a $300 billion volume, while Aster followed with a $289 billion monthly volume.
Hyperliquid’s trading volume in November. Source: DefiLlama
Hyperliquid ranked third with a $259 billion volume, while edgeX recorded a volume of $177 billion in the same time frame.
