XRP (XRP) has retraced nearly 63% from its multi-year high of $3.66 to trade at $1.36 on Wednesday, a technical setup that may have bearish implications for its price, according to a market analyst.
Key takeaways:
XRP appeared bearish below $1.40, with chart technicals pointing to a further drop toward $0.70-$1.
Persistent spot XRP ETFs inflows, whale accumulation and a surge in active addresses could invalidate the bearish outlook.
Where will XRP price bottom?
In a Tuesday post on X, Chart Nerd said that previous fractals from the monthly Gaussian Channel indicator suggest that XRP could drop lower over the coming weeks or months.
The Gaussian Channel is a technical analysis indicator used to identify trends, spot potential support/resistance levels, and overbought/oversold conditions.
The chart below shows that whenever the XRP price rallied, it has corrected to retest the upper regression band of the Gaussian Channel, which is currently at $1.16.
Historically, this has led to three to four months of “further decline towards the middle regression band of the Gaussian Channel before marking a foundation and continuing the trajectory higher,” the analyst said, adding:
“The middle regression band currently ties up around $0.70, which is also a previous year-long resistance level seen back in 2023/2024, and hasn’t been backtested for support.”
XRP/USD monthly chart depicting the Gaussian Channel. Source: Chart Nerd
Chart Nerd added that this scenario will be validated if the XRP drops below the local lows of $1.12, reached on Friday.
Meanwhile, analyst Crypto Patel said that while a drop to $1 would provide a good entry zone for XRP buyers, the “best accumulation zone” could be lower at $0.50-$0.70.
“Currently, XRP/USDT is ~70% down from the recent ATH. After a historical 96% drawdown from $3.28 to $0.1050 in 2018,” a similar crash is “unlikely,” the technical analyst said, adding:
As Cointelegraph reported, the odds of XRP falling below $1 increased once the price was rejected by the 200-week moving average around $1.40.
Is there hope for an XRP price recovery?
Despite XRP’s price weakness, institutional demand and whale accumulation continued.
Launched in late 2025, spot XRP ETFs have now reached $1.23 billion in cumulative net inflows. The $3.26 million inflows on Tuesday marked the fifth consecutive day of inflows, bringing the total assets under management to $1.01 billion.
Spot XRP ETFs flows table. Source: SoSoValue
“Institutional demand and XRP ETF inflows continue, with persistent spot ETF net inflows highlighting institutional confidence,” trader Levi said in a recent post on X.
XRP’s latest rebound to $1.50 from $1.12 came as speculators discussed whether the price would fall below $1, market intelligence platform Santiment said in a recent post on X.
Another hope for the bulls is that whales accumulated during the crash as transactions involving over $100,000 in XRP spiked to four-month highs of 1,389.
The number of active addresses on the XRP Ledger “suddenly ballooned to 78,727 in just one 8-hour candle — the highest in 6 months,” Santiment said, adding:
“These are both major signals of a price reversal for any asset.”
XRP daily active addresses and whale transactions. Source: Santiment
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
AAVE trades at $106.24 in oversold territory with RSI at 29.99. Technical analysis suggests potential bounce from $101 support toward $130 resistance level.
Recent analyst predictions from late January 2026 painted a more optimistic picture for AAVE. Felix Pinkston projected “AAVE shows bullish potential toward $190-195 range by February 2026,” though current price action at $106.24 suggests these targets may need revision.
Peter Zhang provided a structured AAVE price prediction with “Short-term target (1 week): $182-184; Medium-term forecast (1 month): $190-195 range,” while Iris Coleman noted that “AAVE trades at $157.79 with analysts projecting $190-195 targets by February 2026.”
However, the current technical landscape shows AAVE has declined significantly from these earlier forecasts, trading nearly 33% below the levels referenced in recent analyst reports.
AAVE Technical Analysis Breakdown
The current AAVE price prediction relies heavily on oversold conditions signaling a potential reversal. With RSI at 29.99, AAVE sits firmly in oversold territory, historically a zone where bounce opportunities emerge.
AAVE trades below all major moving averages, with the 7-day SMA at $109.98 providing immediate resistance. The 20-day SMA at $131.03 represents a significant challenge, while the 200-day SMA at $223.35 shows the extent of the current downtrend.
The MACD histogram at 0.0000 suggests bearish momentum may be exhausting, though no clear bullish divergence has emerged. The Stochastic oscillator shows %K at 20.57 and %D at 16.46, both in oversold regions.
AAVE’s position at 0.18 on the Bollinger Bands scale places it near the lower band at $92.38, indicating potential support and mean reversion opportunity toward the middle band at $131.03.
Aave Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
A successful defense of the $101.15 strong support could trigger an Aave forecast targeting $113.33 resistance initially. Breaking above this level opens the path to $131.03 (20-day SMA) and potentially $149.86 (50-day SMA) by March 2026.
The oversold RSI condition supports this bullish AAVE price prediction, as historical precedent shows strong bounces from similar levels. Volume confirmation above $15 million would strengthen the bullish case.
Bearish Scenario
Failure to hold $101.15 support exposes AAVE to further downside toward the Bollinger Band lower boundary at $92.38. A break below this level could target psychological support at $85-$90.
The bearish Aave forecast considers the alignment of all major moving averages above current price, creating significant resistance layers that could cap any recovery attempts.
Should You Buy AAVE? Entry Strategy
Based on current technical conditions, a staged entry approach appears prudent for this AAVE price prediction:
Primary Entry Zone: $101-$104 (current support cluster) Secondary Entry: $107-$109 on any bounce confirmation Stop Loss: Below $95 (clear break of Bollinger support) Target 1: $113.33 (immediate resistance) Target 2: $125-$130 (medium-term objective)
Risk management suggests limiting position size given the strong bearish trend structure. The 14-period ATR of $12.06 indicates significant volatility, requiring wider stop-loss levels.
Conclusion
This AAVE price prediction anticipates a technical bounce from current oversold levels, targeting $113-$118 in the near term and $120-$130 by March 2026. The Aave forecast relies on successful defense of $101.15 support and RSI divergence confirmation.
While earlier analyst predictions targeting $190-$195 appear overly optimistic given current market structure, the oversold technical setup provides a reasonable foundation for a 15-25% recovery from current levels.
Cryptocurrency price predictions involve significant risk and uncertainty. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
Lido DAO (LDO) trades at $0.33 with RSI at 25.70 in oversold territory. Technical analysis suggests potential bounce to $0.40-$0.45 range over next 4-6 weeks if key support holds.
Lido DAO (LDO) has declined significantly from its recent highs, currently trading at $0.33 with a 3.21% drop in the last 24 hours. However, oversold technical conditions suggest a potential recovery could be on the horizon for this liquid staking protocol token.
While specific analyst predictions are limited in recent days, historical forecasts from CoinCodex projected LDO reaching $0.65 by early 2026, while Blockchain.News suggested potential upside of 16-23% to the $0.66-$0.70 range within 4-6 weeks in late December 2025.
According to on-chain data from major exchanges, LDO has maintained consistent trading volume of over $2.2 million on Binance alone, indicating sustained institutional interest despite the recent price decline.
LDO Technical Analysis Breakdown
The technical picture for Lido DAO presents a mixed but potentially bullish setup for contrarian traders:
RSI Indicates Oversold Territory: At 25.70, LDO’s RSI has dropped well below the 30 threshold, suggesting the token is oversold and due for a technical bounce. This level historically marks significant buying opportunities for LDO.
MACD Shows Bearish Momentum Stalling: The MACD histogram at 0.0000 indicates bearish momentum is losing steam, with the MACD line (-0.0598) matching the signal line. This convergence often precedes trend reversals.
Bollinger Bands Signal Oversold Conditions: With LDO trading at just 15.48% of its Bollinger Band range, the token is hugging the lower band at $0.28, suggesting extreme oversold conditions and potential mean reversion toward the middle band at $0.43.
Moving Average Analysis: LDO trades significantly below all major moving averages, with the SMA 7 at $0.35 providing immediate resistance. The EMA 12 at $0.38 represents the first major technical hurdle for any recovery attempt.
Lido DAO Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
In a bullish scenario for this LDO price prediction, a bounce from current oversold levels could target several key resistance zones. The immediate resistance at $0.34-$0.35 aligns with the 7-day simple moving average and represents the first hurdle.
A successful break above $0.35 could propel LDO toward the EMA 12 at $0.38, followed by the EMA 26 at $0.44. The ultimate bullish target sits at the SMA 20 around $0.43, which would represent a 30% gain from current levels.
Technical confirmation for the bullish case would require RSI breaking back above 30 and MACD histogram turning positive, along with volume expansion above the recent average.
Bearish Scenario
The bearish case for this Lido DAO forecast centers around a break below the critical $0.32 support level. Such a breakdown could trigger stop-losses and push LDO toward the Bollinger Band lower boundary at $0.28.
A deeper correction could see LDO test psychological support at $0.25, representing a 24% decline from current levels. This scenario would likely require broader crypto market weakness or specific negative developments affecting liquid staking protocols.
Risk factors include continued selling pressure from long-term holders, regulatory concerns around liquid staking, or broader DeFi sector weakness.
Should You Buy LDO? Entry Strategy
For risk-tolerant traders, the current oversold conditions present a potential entry opportunity with defined risk parameters. Consider a scale-in approach between $0.32-$0.33, with additional buying if LDO tests the $0.31 strong support level.
Initial position: $0.33 (current level)
Add on dips: $0.31-$0.32 range
Stop-loss: $0.29 (below Bollinger lower band)
First target: $0.38 (EMA 12)
Second target: $0.43 (SMA 20)
Risk management is crucial given LDO’s high volatility, with the daily ATR of $0.04 suggesting significant intraday price swings are likely to continue.
Conclusion
This LDO price prediction suggests that while bearish momentum has dominated recent trading, oversold technical conditions point to a potential recovery toward $0.40-$0.45 over the next month. The combination of extremely low RSI, Bollinger Band positioning, and MACD convergence creates a compelling contrarian setup.
However, any bullish thesis depends on LDO holding above the critical $0.31-$0.32 support zone and broader crypto market stability. Traders should maintain strict risk management given the high volatility environment.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are highly speculative and subject to extreme volatility. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before investing.
Bitcoin now responds more to liquidity than to rate cuts. While rate cuts once drove crypto rallies, Bitcoin’s recent price action reflects actual cash availability and risk capital in the system, not just borrowing costs.
Interest rates and liquidity are not the same. Rates measure the price of money, while liquidity reflects the amount of money circulating. Bitcoin reacts more when liquidity tightens or loosens, even if rates move in the opposite direction.
When liquidity is abundant, leverage and risk-taking expand, pushing Bitcoin higher. When liquidity contracts, leverage can unwind quickly, which has often coincided with sharp sell-offs across stocks and commodities.
Balance sheets and cash flows matter more than policy headlines. The Fed’s balance sheet policy, Treasury cash management and money market tools directly shape liquidity and often influence Bitcoin more than small changes in policy rates.
For years, US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have been a key macro signal for Bitcoin (BTC) traders. Lower rates typically meant cheaper borrowing, boosted risk appetite and sparked rallies in crypto. However, that classic link between Fed rate cuts and Bitcoin trading has weakened in recent months. Bitcoin now responds more to actual liquidity levels in the financial system than to expectations or incremental changes in borrowing costs.
This article clarifies why anticipated rate cuts have not pushed up Bitcoin recently. It explains why episodes of liquidity constraint have triggered synchronized sell-offs across crypto, stocks and even precious metals.
Rates vs. liquidity: The key difference
Interest rates represent the cost of money, while liquidity reflects the quantity and flow of money available in the system. Markets sometimes confuse the two, but they can diverge sharply.
The Fed might lower rates, yet liquidity could still contract if reserves are drained elsewhere. For instance, liquidity can tighten through quantitative tightening or the US Department of the Treasury’s actions. Liquidity can also rise without rate cuts through other inflows or policy shifts.
Bitcoin’s price action increasingly tracks this liquidity pulse more closely than incremental rate adjustments.
Did you know? Bitcoin often reacts to liquidity changes before traditional markets do, earning it a reputation among macro traders as a “canary asset” that signals tightening conditions ahead of broader equity sell-offs.
Why rate cuts no longer drive Bitcoin as strongly
Several factors have diminished the impact of rate cuts:
Heavy pre-pricing: Markets and futures often anticipate cuts well in advance, pricing them in long before they happen. By the time a cut occurs, asset prices may already reflect it.
Context matters: Cuts driven by economic stress or financial instability can coincide with de-risking. In such environments, investors tend to reduce exposure to volatile assets even if rates are falling.
Cuts do not guarantee liquidity: Ongoing balance sheet runoff, large Treasury issuance or reserve drains can keep the system constrained. Bitcoin, as a volatile asset, tends to react quickly to these pressures.
Bitcoin as a liquidity-sensitive, high-beta asset
Bitcoin’s buyers rely on leverage, available risk capital and overall market conditions. Liquidity influences these factors:
In environments with abundant liquidity, leverage flows freely, volatility is more tolerated, and capital shifts toward riskier assets.
When liquidity is constrained, leverage unwinds, liquidations cascade, and risk appetite vanishes across markets.
This dynamic suggests Bitcoin behaves less like a policy rate trade and more like a real-time gauge of liquidity conditions. When cash becomes scarce, Bitcoin tends to fall in tandem with equities and commodities, regardless of the Fed funds rate.
What lies behind liquidity
To understand how Bitcoin reacts in various situations, it helps to look beyond rate decisions and into the financial plumbing:
Fed balance sheet: Quantitative tightening (QT) shrinks the Fed’s holdings and pulls reserves from banks. While markets can handle early QT, it eventually constrains risk-taking. Signals about potential balance sheet expansion can at times influence markets more than small changes in policy rates.
Treasury cash management: The US Treasury’s cash balance acts as a liquidity valve. When the Treasury rebuilds its cash balance, money moves out of the banking system. When it draws the balance down, liquidity is released.
Money market tools: Facilities like the overnight reverse repo (ON RRP) absorb or release cash. Shrinking buffers make markets more reactive to small liquidity shifts, and Bitcoin registers those changes rapidly.
Did you know? Some of Bitcoin’s sharpest intraday moves have occurred on days with no Fed announcements at all but coincided with large Treasury settlements that quietly drained cash from the banking system.
Why recent sell-offs felt macro, not crypto-specific
Lately, Bitcoin drawdowns have aligned with declines in equities and metals, pointing to broad liquidity stress rather than isolated crypto issues. This cross-asset synchronization underscores Bitcoin’s integration into the global liquidity framework.
Fed leadership and policy nuances: Shifts in expected Fed leadership, particularly views on balance sheet policy, add complexity. Skepticism toward aggressive expansion signals tighter liquidity ahead, which affects Bitcoin prices more intensely than small rate tweaks.
Liquidity surprises pack a bigger punch: Liquidity shifts are less predictable and transparent, and markets are not as adept at anticipating them. They quickly affect leverage and positioning. Rate changes, however, are widely debated and modeled. Unexpected liquidity drains can catch traders off guard, with Bitcoin’s volatility magnifying the effect.
How to think about Bitcoin’s macro sensitivity
Over long periods, interest rates shape valuations, discount rates and opportunity costs. In the current regime, however, liquidity sets the near-term boundaries for risk appetite. Bitcoin’s reaction becomes more volatile when liquidity shifts.
Key things to monitor include:
Central bank balance sheet signals
Treasury cash flows and Treasury General Account (TGA) levels
Stress or easing signals in money markets.
Rate cut narratives can shape sentiment, but sustained buying depends on whether liquidity supports risk-taking.
The broader shift
Bitcoin was long seen as a hedge against currency debasement. Today, it is increasingly viewed as a real-time indicator of financial conditions. When liquidity expands, Bitcoin benefits; when liquidity tightens, Bitcoin tends to feel the pain early.
In recent periods, Bitcoin has responded more to liquidity conditions than to rate cut headlines. In the current phase of the Bitcoin cycle, many analysts are focusing less on rate direction and more on whether system liquidity is sufficient to support risk-taking.
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Malicious MEV attacks pose a significant threat to traders on Ethereum. Our latest research shows that almost 2,000 sandwich attacks happen daily and more than $2 million is extracted from the network each month. Even traders who execute large WETH, WBTC or stable swaps remain at risk and can lose a substantial portion of their trades.
MEV thrives because of the transparent nature of blockchains, where transaction data is visible before transactions are executed and finalized. One path toward mitigating MEV is mempool encryption, particularly through the use of threshold encryption. In our earlier articles, we examined two different models for threshold-encrypted mempools. Shutter, one of the first projects to apply threshold encryption to protect the mempool, introduced a per-epoch setup. Batched threshold encryption (BTE), a newer model, decrypts multiple transactions with a single key to reduce communication costs and raise throughput.
In this piece, we analyze Flash Freezing Flash Boys (F3B) by H. Zhang et al. (2022), a newly proposed threshold encryption design that applies encryption on a per-transaction basis. We explore its mechanics, explain its scaling properties as concerns latency and memory, and discuss the reasons it has not yet been deployed in practice.
How Flash Freezing Flash Boys implements per-transaction encryption
Flash Freezing Flash Boys addresses limitations in early threshold encryption systems that relied on per-epoch setups. Projects such as FairBlock and the early versions of Shutter used a single key to encrypt every transaction within a selected epoch. An epoch is a fixed number of blocks, e.g., 32 blocks on Ethereum. This created a vulnerability where some transactions that fail to be included in the specified block ends would still be decrypted with the rest of the batch. This would expose sensitive data and open up MEV opportunities to validators, thus making them vulnerable to front-running.
F3B applies threshold encryption on a per-transaction basis, which ensures that each transaction remains confidential until it reaches finality. The general flow of the F3B protocol is shown in the figure below. The user encrypts the transaction with a key that only the designated threshold committee, known as the Secret Management Committee (SMC), can access. The transaction ciphertext and the encrypted key are sent to the consensus group as a pair (Step 1). Thus, nodes can store and order transactions while retaining all required decryption metadata for prompt post-finality reconstruction and execution. Meanwhile, the SMC prepares its decryption shares but withholds them until the consensus commits the transaction (Step 2). Once a transaction is finalized and the SMC releases enough valid shares (Step 3), the consensus group decrypts the transaction and executes it (Step 4).
Per-transaction encryption had long remained impractical due to its heavy computational load for encryption and decryption as well as the storage requirement from large encrypted payloads. F3B addresses this by threshold-encrypting only a lightweight symmetric key instead of the full transaction. The transaction itself is encrypted with this symmetric key. This approach can reduce the amount of data that needs to be asymmetrically encrypted by up to ~10 times for a simple swap transaction.
Comparison of different cryptographic implementations of F3B and their latency overhead
Flash Freezing Flash Boys can be implemented with one of two cryptographic protocols, either TDH2 or PVSS. The difference lies in who bears the setup burden and how often the committee structure is fixed, with corresponding advantages and disadvantages in flexibility, latency and storage overhead.
TDH2 (Threshold Diffie-Hellman 2) relies on a committee that runs a distributed key generation (DKG) process to produce individual key shares along with a collective public key. Then, a user creates a fresh symmetric key, encrypts their transaction with it, and encrypts that symmetric key to the committee’s public key. The consensus group writes this encrypted pair onto the chain. After the chain reaches the required number of confirmations, committee members publish partial decryptions of the encrypted symmetric key together with NIZK (Non-Interactive Zero-Knowledge) proofs, which are required to prevent chosen-ciphertext attacks, where attackers submit malformed ciphertexts to try to trick trustees into leaking information during decryption. NIZKs guarantee the user’s ciphertext is well-formed and decryptable, and also that trustees submitted correct decryption shares. Consensus verifies the proofs and, once a threshold of valid shares is available, reconstructs and decrypts the symmetric key, decrypts the transaction, and then executes it.
The second scheme, PVSS (Publicly Verifiable Secret Sharing), follows a different path. Instead of the committee running a DKG in every epoch, committee members each have a long-term private key and a corresponding public key, which is stored on the blockchain and accessible to any user. For each transaction, users pick a random polynomial and use Shamir’s secret sharing to generate secret shares, which are then encrypted for each chosen trustee using the respective public key. The symmetric key is obtained by hashing the reconstructed secret. The encrypted shares are each accompanied by an NIZK proof, which allows anyone to verify that all shares were derived from the same secret, along with a public polynomial commitment, a record that binds the share-secret relationship. The subsequent steps of transaction inclusion, post-finality share release, key reconstruction, decryption and execution are similar to those in the TDH2 scheme.
The TDH2 protocol is more efficient due to a fixed committee and constant-size threshold-encryption data. PVSS, by contrast, gives users more flexibility, since they can select the committee members responsible for their transaction. However, this comes at the cost of larger public-key ciphertexts and higher computational overhead due to per-trustee encryption. In the greater scheme of things, the prototype implementation of the F3B protocol on simulated proof-of-stake Ethereum showed that it has minimal performance overhead. With a committee of 128 trustees, the delay incurred after finality is only 197 ms for TDH2 and 205 ms for PVSS, which is equivalent to 0.026% and 0.027% of Ethereum’s 768-second finality time. Storage overhead is just 80 bytes per transaction for TDH2, while PVSS’s overhead grows linearly with the number of trustees due to per-member shares, proofs and commitments. These results confirm that F3B could deliver its privacy guarantees with negligible impact on Ethereum’s performance and capacity.
Incentives and punishments in the Flash Freezing Flash Boys protocol
F3B incentivizes honest behavior among Secret Management Committee trustees through a staking mechanism with locked collateral. Fees motivate trustees to stay online and maintain the level of performance the protocol requires. A slashing smart contract ensures that if anyone submits proof of a violation, which demonstrates that decryption was performed prematurely, the offending trustee’s stake is forfeited. In TDH2, such proof consists of a trustee’s decryption share that can be publicly verified against the transaction ciphertext. Meanwhile, in PVSS, the proofs consist of a decrypted share together with a trustee-specific NIZK proof that authenticates it. This mechanism penalizes provable premature disclosure of decryption shares, increasing the cost of detectable misbehavior. However, it does not prevent trustees from colluding privately off-chain to reconstruct and decrypt transaction data without publishing any shares. As a result, the protocol still relies on the assumption that majority of committee members behave honestly.
Because encrypted transactions cannot be executed immediately, another attack vector is for a malicious user to flood the blockchain with non-executable transactions to slow down confirmation times. This is a potential attack surface common to all encrypted mempool schemes. F3B requires that users make a storage deposit for every encrypted transaction, which makes spamming costly. The system deducts the deposit upfront and refunds only part of it when the transaction executes successfully.
Challenges to deploying F3B on Ethereum
Flash Freezing Flash Boys offers a comprehensive cryptographic approach to mitigating MEV, but it is unlikely to see real-world deployment on Ethereum due to the complexity of integration. Although F3B leaves the consensus mechanism untouched and preserves full compatibility with existing smart contracts, it requires modifications to the execution layer to support encrypted transactions and delayed execution. This would require a far broader hard fork than any other update introduced since The Merge.
Nevertheless, F3B represents a valuable research milestone that extends beyond Ethereum. Its trust-minimized mechanism for sharing private transaction data can be applied to both emerging blockchain networks and decentralized applications that require delayed execution. F3B-style protocols can be useful even on sub-second blockchains where lower block times already significantly reduce MEV, to fully eliminate mempool-based front-running. As an example application, F3B could also be used in a sealed-bid auction smart contract, where bidders submit encrypted bids that remain hidden until the bidding phase ends. Thus, bids can be revealed and executed only after the auction deadline, which prevents bid manipulation, front-running or early information leakage.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as, legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph. Cointelegraph does not endorse the content of this article nor any product mentioned herein. Readers should do their own research before taking any action related to any product or company mentioned and carry full responsibility for their decisions. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
The decline suggests the market has moved out of the euphoric post-halving phase and into what Kaiko described as a historically typical bear market period that lasts about 12 months before a new accumulation phase begins.
In a research note shared with Cointelegraph on Monday, Kaiko said Bitcoin’s 32% crash was the most significant correction since the 2024 Bitcoin halving and may mark the “halfway point” of the current bear market.
“Analysis of on-chain metrics and comparative performance across tokens reveals a market approaching critical technical support levels that will determine whether the four-year cycle framework remains intact,” Kaiko said.
Bitcoin halving cycles, all-time chart. Source: Kaiko Research
Kaiko’s report highlighted several emerging onchain bear market signals, including a 30% drop in aggregate spot crypto trading volume across the 10 leading centralized exchanges, from around $1 trillion in October 2025 down to $700 billion in November.
At the same time, combined Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) futures open interest declined from $29 billion to $25 billion over the past week, a 14% reduction that Kaiko said reflects ongoing deleveraging.
Open interest for BTC and ETH futures, top 10 exchanges. Source: Kaiko Research
While Bitcoin has realigned with the historical four-year halving cycle since the beginning of the year, determining the depth of the current bear market is complex, as “many catalysts that fueled BTC’s rally to $126,000 are still in effect,” said Shawn Young, chief analyst, MEXC Research.
“With oversold indicators emerging on multiple timeframes, the rebound conversation around BTC is more a question of when, not if,” Young said, adding that Bitcoin may be entering a new cycle that will only become clear over the next year.
The key question for investors is whether the dip to $60,000 represents the low of the current bear market. The level roughly aligns with Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, which has historically acted as long-term support.
Still, more market volatility is expected in the absence of crypto-specific market catalysts, Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen, told Cointelegraph, adding:
“With that said, it is still very hard to say if it means we are going back to the conventional 4-year cycle. I have seen many prominent figures in the space air the idea, but equally many who do not think so.”
However, Kaiko pointed to a 52% retracement from Bitcoin’s previous all-time high being “unusually shallow” compared to previous bear market cycles.
A 60% to 68% retracement would “align more closely” with historical drawdowns, which implies a Bitcoin cycle bottom around $40,000 to $50,000, Kaiko said.
Still, some market participants argue that $60,000 already marked a local bottom. Analyst and MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe called the crash to $60,000 the local market bottom for Bitcoin’s price, citing a record low in investor sentiment and a critical low in the relative strength index, which sank to values last seen in 2018 and 2020.
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
The United Kingdom’s financial watchdog has launched court action against cryptocurrency exchange HTX, alleging it illegally promoted crypto asset services to British consumers in breach of financial advertising rules.
The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said it began proceedings against HTX and several related persons in the Chancery Division of the High Court in October 2025.
In an update published Tuesday, the regulator said it received permission on Wednesday to serve the case outside the UK and by alternative means, noting that HTX (formerly known as Huobi Global) is incorporated in Panama.
The legal action comes under the FCA’s Financial Promotions (FinProm) Regime, adopted in October 2023, which tightened requirements on how crypto firms can market their services to UK consumers.
FCA previously warned about HTX’s promotions
“Firms providing crypto products to UK consumers need to comply with rules which protect consumers from unfair and misleading marketing,” the regulator said. It added that advertising crypto assets on social media or websites without complying with these rules is a criminal offense.
The FCA had previously warned about HTX’s promotion of crypto services to UK consumers, the statement added.
“However, it has continued to publish financial promotions in breach of these rules on its website and on social media platforms, including TikTok, X, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube,” the authority said.
FCA’s announcement on taking action against HTX (formerly known as Huobi Global). Source: FCA
‘“Our rules are designed to support a sustainable and competitive crypto market in the UK, ensuring that consumers have what they need to make informed decisions,” said Steve Smart, joint executive director of enforcement and market oversight at the FCA.
“HTX’s conduct stands in stark contrast to the majority of firms working to comply with the FCA’s regime. This is the first time we’ve taken enforcement action against a crypto firm illegally marketing their products to UK consumers,” he added.
We’ll continue to act against firms who ignore our rules.”
The FCA also requested that social media companies block HTX’s social media accounts to UK-based consumers and requested the removal of HTX applications from Google Play and Apple Stores in the UK.
The regulator has also put the company on its Warning List, notifying consumers that they are not protected by the UK government if they have a complaint against HTX.
Cointelegraph reached out to HTX for comment on the FCA’s action, but had not received a response by publication.
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
While specific analyst predictions are limited in recent days, on-chain metrics suggest growing institutional interest in DeFi protocols. According to available forecasts, CoinCodex previously estimated AAVE reaching $175.11 by early February, though current market conditions have kept the token trading below those projections.
The lack of fresh analyst commentary may indicate consolidation phase typical before significant price movements in cryptocurrency markets.
AAVE Technical Analysis Breakdown
AAVE’s current technical setup presents a mixed but potentially bullish picture. Trading at $109.08, the token sits well below all major moving averages, indicating a sustained downtrend that may be nearing exhaustion.
The RSI at 31.20 suggests AAVE is approaching oversold territory without quite reaching extreme levels. This neutral-to-oversold reading often precedes bounce attempts, especially when combined with other technical factors.
The MACD histogram at 0.0000 shows bearish momentum has stalled, potentially signaling an inflection point. While the overall MACD remains negative at -13.8435, the flattening histogram suggests selling pressure may be diminishing.
Bollinger Band analysis reveals AAVE trading at just 0.18 position between the bands, indicating the token is hugging the lower band at $95.01. This positioning often leads to mean reversion moves toward the middle band at $133.56.
Key resistance emerges at $113.49 (immediate) and $117.91 (strong), while support holds at $106.34 and $103.61. The daily ATR of $12.21 suggests significant volatility potential for breakout moves.
Aave Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
If AAVE breaks above the $117.91 strong resistance level, the next logical target becomes the 7-day SMA at $112.43, followed by a push toward $125-$130. A sustained move above $117 with volume confirmation could trigger momentum toward the 20-day SMA at $133.56, representing a 22% gain from current levels.
The ultimate bullish target sits near $140-$145, where the EMA 12 at $120.94 and psychological resistance levels converge. This scenario requires broader DeFi sector strength and Bitcoin maintaining support above key levels.
Bearish Scenario
Failure to hold the $106.34 immediate support could trigger a test of strong support at $103.61. A break below this level opens the door to the Bollinger Band lower band at $95.01, representing a 13% downside risk.
The primary risk factor remains the distance from all major moving averages, suggesting the broader trend remains bearish until AAVE can reclaim the $117+ levels with conviction.
Should You Buy AAVE? Entry Strategy
For aggressive traders, current levels around $109 offer attractive risk-reward with tight stop-loss at $103. Conservative investors should wait for a break above $117.91 before establishing positions.
A dollar-cost averaging approach between $105-$110 makes sense for long-term DeFi believers, with stops below $95 to limit downside exposure. Position sizing should remain conservative given the 12% daily volatility indicated by ATR readings.
This AAVE price prediction suggests the token is positioned for a potential 7-15% bounce in the coming weeks, with initial resistance at $117. The Aave forecast becomes increasingly bullish above $117.91, opening targets toward $140.
However, failure to hold current support levels could extend the correction toward $95. Risk management remains crucial given cryptocurrency market volatility.
This AAVE price prediction is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before investing.
Bitcoin’s relief rally is facing selling near $72,000, but a positive sign is that the bulls have not ceded much ground to the bears.
Several major altcoins are facing selling at higher levels, indicating that the sentiment remains negative.
Bitcoin (BTC) has slipped closer to $69,500, indicating that the bears are selling on rallies. Several analysts say that BTC’s bottom is still not in. Trader BitBull said in a post on X that BTC’s “real bottom will form below $50,000, where most of the ETF buyers will be underwater.”
A different viewpoint was put forth by crypto sentiment platform Santiment. In a report on Saturday, the Santiment team said that data suggests the fall to $60,000 may have been a genuine bottom. Still, for a sustained recovery, the market has to sustain above the key support level, and whales must continue their tentative accumulation.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView
Another positive for the bulls is that the BTC Sharpe ratio has fallen to -10, which historically indicates the final phases of bear markets, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost. Although the readings do not confirm that the bear market is over, it indicates that the risk-to-reward profile may be reaching extreme levels.
Could BTC and the major altcoins start a strong relief rally, or will the downtrend resume? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
S&P 500 Index price prediction
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell below the ascending channel pattern on Thursday, but the bulls could not sustain the lower levels.
The index came roaring back on Friday and surged above the moving averages. That shows the break below the channel may have been a bear trap. The bulls will attempt to push the price to the resistance line, where the bears are expected to step in.
The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) (6,917) is flattening out, and the relative strength index (RSI) is just above the midpoint, signaling a balance between supply and demand. A close above the resistance line might start the next leg of the uptrend toward 7,290.
US Dollar Index price prediction
The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose above the 20-day EMA (97.67) on Thursday, but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels.
The price plunged sharply below the 20-day EMA on Monday, signaling that the bears are attempting to take control. There is strong support in the 96.21 to 95.51 support zone, but if the bears prevail, the index might collapse to 91.88.
Instead, if the price turns up sharply from the current level or the support zone and rises above the moving averages, it signals that the index might extend its stay inside the 96.21 to 100.54 range for some more time.
Bitcoin price prediction
BTC’s recovery is stalling just below the breakdown level of $74,508, indicating that the bears are attempting to flip the level into resistance.
The downsloping 20-day EMA ($78,142) and the RSI in negative territory indicate an advantage to sellers. If the price turns down from $74,508 or the 20-day EMA, the bears will again strive to pull the BTC/USDT pair toward $60,000.
This negative view will be invalidated in the near term if the Bitcoin price breaks above the 20-day EMA. That suggests solid buying at lower levels. The pair may then rally toward the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($86,636).
Ether price prediction
Ether’s (ETH) relief rally is facing selling at the $2,111 level, but a positive sign is that the bulls have not ceded much ground to the bears.
If the price decisively closes above the $2,111 level, the ETH/USDT pair may climb to the 20-day EMA ($2,447). This is a crucial resistance to watch out for, as a break above it suggests that the bearish momentum has weakened. The Ether price may then rise to the 50-day SMA ($2,877).
Sellers will have to aggressively defend the $2,111 level to retain their advantage. If they do that, the $1,750 level may be at risk of breaking down. The pair may then slump to $1,537.
BNB price prediction
BNB’s (BNB) relief rally is facing selling near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $676, indicating a negative sentiment.
If the price slips below $602, the bears will attempt to yank the BNB/USDT pair below the $570 support. If they manage to do that, the pair may plummet to $500.
Contrarily, if bulls push the BNB price above $676, the pair may ascend to the breakdown level of $730. Sellers are expected to defend the $730 to $790 zone as a break above it suggests that the bulls are back in the game. The pair might then surge to the 50-day SMA ($849).
XRP price prediction
Buyers have maintained XRP (XRP) above the support line of the descending channel pattern but are struggling to push the price to the 20-day EMA ($1.63).
If the price turns down and breaks below the support line, it indicates that the bears remain in charge. The XRP/USDT pair may then retest the $1.11 level. Buyers are expected to defend the $1.11 level with all their might, as a break below it may sink the pair to $1 and then to $0.75.
Buyers will have to propel the XRP price above the 20-day EMA to gain the upper hand in the short term. The pair may then march toward the downtrend line. A close above the downtrend line suggests the start of a new up move.
Solana price prediction
Solana’s (SOL) relief rally is facing selling just below the breakdown level of $95, indicating that the bears are attempting to flip the level into resistance.
If the Solana price continues lower and breaks below $77, it suggests that the bears remain in command. The SOL/USDT pair may then retest the $67 level, which is likely to act as a strong support.
Sellers are expected to defend the zone between the 20-day EMA ($104) and the $95 level, as a close above it signals that the bulls are back in the driver’s seat. The pair may then march toward the 50-day SMA ($123).
If the Dogecoin price turns down from the current level, it increases the possibility of a break below the $0.08 level. The DOGE/USDT pair may then resume its downtrend and nosedive to $0.06.
Time is running out for the bulls. They will have to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.11) to suggest that the bearish momentum is weakening. The pair may then march toward the $0.13 level.
Cardano price prediction
Cardano’s (ADA) shallow bounce off the support line of the descending channel pattern indicates that the bears are selling on rallies.
If the Cardano price turns down from the current level, the bears will again attempt to tug the ADA/USDT pair below the support line. If they can pull it off, the pair may collapse to the next support at $0.20.
Conversely, a break above the 20-day EMA ($0.30) suggests that the pair may remain inside the channel for some more time. The buyers will gain the upper hand on a close above the downtrend line. The pair may then ascend to the breakdown level of $0.50.
Bitcoin Cash price prediction
Bitcoin Cash’s (BCH) relief rally is facing resistance at the 20-day EMA ($543), indicating a bearish sentiment.
If the price continues lower and breaks below $497, it suggests that the bears remain in control. The BCH/USDT pair may then drop toward the crucial support at $443, where the buyers are expected to step in.
On the upside, the bulls will have to push and maintain the price above the 20-day EMA to negate the bearish view. If they do that, the Bitcoin Cash price may climb to the 50-day SMA ($585).
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Bitcoin miner Cango has sold 4,451 Bitcoin on the open market, generating net proceeds of about $305 million it says were used to partially repay a Bitcoin‑collateralized loan and to strengthen its balance sheet.
The company said Monday that the transaction, approved by its board after a review of “current market conditions,” is intended to reduce financial leverage and provide additional capacity to fund its planned expansion into artificial intelligence (AI) and high‑performance computing (HPC) infrastructure.
Cango said that the “strategic pivot” meant utilizing its “globally accessed, grid-connected infrastructure” to provide distributed compute capacity for the AI industry, and that the initiative would be implemented through a phased roadmap.
The sale follows a disposal of 550.3 BTC, with Cango selling more Bitcoin (BTC) than it produced in January to support its near‑term growth initiatives after extreme cold and blizzards reduced uptime during the month.
According to the company’s Feb. 3 update, Cango’s Bitcoin reserves stood at 7,474.6 BTC at the end of that month, down from 7,528.3 BTC at the end of December 2025, before the additional 4,451 BTC transaction further reduced its holdings.
Miners pivot power and capital into AI
Cango’s decision reflects a broader shift among Bitcoin miners as they look to diversify revenue streams by supplying power and data center capacity to AI and HPC customers.
Other large mining‑linked groups are signing long‑term contracts to supply GPU‑based cloud capacity for artificial intelligence and HPC using power and data center infrastructure that was originally built for Bitcoin mining.
Bitcoin miner Iren, for example, agreed to a five‑year, $9.7 billion deal with Microsoft in November 2025 to provide AI computing power from its Texas campus, committing hundreds of megawatts of capacity to contracted GPU hosting while continuing to operate one of the industry’s largest Bitcoin mining fleets.
These developments are taking place as post‑halving economics tighten across the sector in 2025. Cointelegraph Research data shows hashprice falling to multi‑year lows and network difficulty at record highs, as heavily compressed margins saw many miners operating close to breakeven at prevailing prices and cost levels.
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