A bullish signal from Solana’s MACD indicator hinted at a potential rally, though resistance at $90 could delay the recovery.
Nakamoto taps Bitwise and Kraken for Bitcoin options strategy to hedge risk
Nakamoto launched a Bitcoin derivatives program with Bitwise and Kraken, aiming to generate options premiums and hedge part of its BTC treasury exposure.
Strategy stock beats Bitcoin after rising 25% in a month: BTC bottom in?
Historically, MSTR’s outperformance signals traders are taking more risk, betting Bitcoin’s worst drawdown phase may be over.
XRP Risks 40% Dip Versus Bitcoin Despite Persistent ETF Inflows
XRP (XRP) has fallen about 5% against Bitcoin (BTC) over the past week, and the confirmation of a bearish pattern now points to the risk of more losses ahead.
Key takeaways:
- XRP/BTC’s descending triangle pattern on the weekly chart points to a possible 40% drop toward 0.000011 BTC.
- Persistent institutional demand through US-based spot ETFs supports the case for a recovery in XRP price.
XRP’s descending triangle breakdown is underway
Since late 2024, the XRP/BTC ratio has been consolidating inside a descending triangle on the weekly time frame.
In technical analysis, descending triangles are typically viewed as bearish patterns. The pattern was confirmed when the price produced a weekly candlestick close below the triangle’s lower trend line at 0.000096 BTC, as shown in the chart below.
The downside target is derived by taking the height of the triangle and placing it lower from the point where the price breaks below the pattern’s lower trend line.
XRP/BTC weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Using that method, the XRP/BTC pair’s measured downside target comes in near 0.000011 BTC, about 40.5% below current levels.
“$XRP/BTC looks edgy,” technical analyst ChartNerd said in a recent post on X, adding that losing support at $0.000091 would lead to further losses in the XRP/BTC ratio as well as the XRP/USD pair.
XRP/BTC weekly chart. Source: Chart Nerd
However, the RSI is near oversold at 33, levels that have previously marked macro bottoms for the ratio, as seen in mid- and late 2024. This suggests that the current downtrend could soon come to an end.
As Cointelegraph reported, a similar recovery could be seen in XRP price as several technical and onchain indicators send bottoming signals.
XRP ETF demand makes a comeback
Institutional demand for XRP investment products has been strengthening, according to data from SoSoValue.
US-based spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted $3.89 million in net inflows on Thursday. This marked nine consecutive days of net inflows, totaling $73.78 million. This streak has pushed cumulative inflows to nearly $1.28 billion and AUM to $1.1 billion.
US spot XRP ETF flows chart. Source: SoSoValue
This indicates an increased institutional appetite for XRP products, despite the price declining 22% in 2026 and lagging against Bitcoin.
“$XRP ETF inflows continue,” analyst Don Digital Finance said in a Friday X post.
It signals “steady institutional demand as accumulation continues despite sideways price action,” the analyst added.
“Institutional demand is rising fast as big money continues flowing into XRP exposure,” fellow analyst Ledger Man said, adding:
“This could be a major signal that confidence in XRP is growing stronger than ever.”
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.
AAVE Price Prediction: $105 Target Faces $80 Support Test – Critical 30-Day Crossroads
Ted Hisokawa
Apr 24, 2026 10:41
AAVE trades at a technical inflection point with derivatives data showing smart money positioning for upside despite neutral momentum indicators. The analysts at Blockchain.news identify a 35% prob…
AAVE’s Technical Crossroads
AAVE sits at $94.06 in a state of technical limbo that precedes major directional moves. The RSI at 44.94 occupies neutral territory while the MACD histogram flatlining at 0.0000 confirms momentum has completely stalled. Yet beneath this surface calm, the token managed a 2.72% daily gain, revealing underlying buying interest that contradicts the stagnant momentum readings.
The Bollinger Band positioning at 0.40 places AAVE in the lower half of its trading channel, with the middle band at $96.94 providing immediate resistance and the lower band at $82.14 establishing critical support. This $14.80 range compression typically resolves with sharp breakouts as market participants choose direction.
Institutional vs Retail Positioning
The derivatives landscape reveals a tale of two markets. While $25.6 million in 24-hour spot volume indicates steady institutional participation, the real story emerges from futures positioning. Open interest contracted 2.72% to $58.7 million as the funding rate turned negative at -0.0007%, signaling long position liquidations and smart money rebalancing.
The positioning data exposes a critical divergence: top traders maintain 59.1% long exposure with a 1.44 ratio, while retail sentiment remains balanced at 1.10. This gap between sophisticated and retail positioning historically precedes significant price moves. The taker buy/sell ratio at 0.987 shows minimal selling pressure despite technical weakness, suggesting accumulation continues at current levels.
Market Structure Analysis
AAVE faces a binary setup over the next 30 days based on its technical and derivatives structure. The upside path requires breaking above $96.87 immediate resistance, which would target the stronger resistance zone at $99.68 before potentially reaching $105. This scenario carries approximately 35% probability given current whale positioning and the potential for an oversold bounce.
The downside path involves failure at $91.19 immediate support, triggering algorithmic stops toward $88.32 and potentially the lower Bollinger Band near $82.14. This outcome holds roughly 65% probability as the bearish MACD divergence and neutral RSI provide limited technical support for buyers.
Volatility Window
The 7-day outlook appears particularly volatile given AAVE’s $8.71 Average True Range, suggesting daily moves approaching 9% remain probable. Smart money positioning favors the upside breakout scenario, but sustained rallies above $100 require retail participation to follow institutional accumulation patterns.
The absence of fresh fundamental catalysts means AAVE trades purely on technical levels and derivatives flows, potentially enabling cleaner price discovery without external narrative interference.
Image source: Shutterstock
US Soldier Charged Over $400K Polymarket Bet on Maduro Ouster
Luisa Crawford
Apr 24, 2026 02:27
Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke faces charges for using military intel to profit $400,000+ on Polymarket bets tied to Maduro’s removal.
A U.S. Army soldier, Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, has been charged with leveraging classified military intelligence to profit $409,881 on Polymarket prediction contracts tied to the planned capture of Venezuela’s former president, Nicolás Maduro. According to a U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) statement released Thursday, Van Dyke’s actions allegedly violated both military protocols and federal law.
The DOJ revealed that Van Dyke participated in the planning and execution of “Operation Absolute Resolve,” the January operation that led to Maduro’s capture in Caracas. Using this inside knowledge, Van Dyke reportedly made a series of high-stakes bets on prediction contracts such as “Maduro out by January 31” and “Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31.” These bets were placed between December 27, 2025, and January 2, 2026, just days before the operation took place.
Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, flagged and referred the trades to the DOJ, stating, “Insider trading has no place on Polymarket.” The platform claims to have cooperated fully with the investigation. Van Dyke later attempted to cover his tracks by asking Polymarket to delete his account and allegedly funneling much of his illicit gains into a foreign crypto vault.
The charges against Van Dyke are severe, including unlawful use of confidential government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and an unlawful monetary transaction. The wire fraud charge alone carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison. FBI Director Kash Patel emphasized the broader implications, stating, “Today’s announcement makes clear no one is above the law.”
Prediction Markets Under Scrutiny
Prediction markets like Polymarket allow users to bet on real-world events, from political outcomes to geopolitical developments. While the concept has democratized speculative trading, it has also drawn criticism for creating opportunities to profit from sensitive or classified information. Regulatory agencies, including the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), have started cracking down on misuse. CFTC Chair Michael Selig commented that such cases “put the lives of American service members in harm’s way.”
This incident is not isolated. In February, Israeli authorities arrested a military reservist for allegedly using classified information to profit on Polymarket contracts tied to Israeli strikes on Iran. Such cases highlight the growing concerns around the exploitation of decentralized platforms for insider trading.
What’s Next?
Van Dyke’s case underscores the evolving regulatory challenges facing prediction markets. Polymarket and its competitors have reportedly implemented stronger surveillance measures to combat insider trading, but high-profile cases like these raise questions about the enforcement gap.
Beyond the legal implications for Van Dyke, this case serves as a cautionary tale about the misuse of decentralized platforms. As regulatory scrutiny intensifies, the crypto community will likely see more stringent oversight and enforcement in an effort to balance innovation with accountability.
Image source: Shutterstock
Bitcoin Bulls Fight For Bull Market Support Band Into Weekly Close
Bitcoin (BTC) slipped from near three-month highs on Thursday as attention turned to the weekly close.
Key points:
- Bitcoin retraces after its latest trip to its highest levels in several months.
- The upcoming weekly candle close is of particular interest as price eyes its bull market support band.
- A macro lull comes ahead of a deluge of US inflation data next week.
Bitcoin bull market support band returns after six months
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD dropping to $77,200 prior to the Wall Street open.
The pair hit $79,500 the day prior, marking its highest levels since the last day of January as the $80,000 mark remained narrowly out of reach.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
“$BTC just keeps taking out the highs, taking out short stops without following through,” trader Jelle commented on the latest price action in a post on X.
“Been a while since we saw PA like that; usually means liquidity is being generated for a larger position. The question is, when will they step on the gas?”
BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Jelle/X
As Cointelegraph reported, multiple resistance levels remain in play in the current spot price zone, with the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) proving hard to flip to support. Bitcoin last traded above that trend line in October 2025.
With that, another chart feature finally making a comeback after a six-month absence is Bitcoin’s bull market support band.
Formed by the 21-week EMA and the 20-week simple moving average (SMA), the support band was lost as support soon after Bitcoin’s latest all-time highs.
“$BTC Attempting to break back above the bull market support band,” trader Daan Crypto Trades confirmed.
“Eyes on the weekly close this weekend, as it will be an important one. Bitcoin has not traded above its bull market support band since October 2025.”
BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
Fed policy, oil seen as next crypto catalysts
Macro markets provided little volatility on the day, with few cues from the US-Iran war.
Related: Bitcoin Bull Score hits six-month high as 2022 bear-market fears linger
The coming week was due to see key US macroeconomic data prints released, along with the latest interest-rate announcement from the Federal Reserve.
As Cointelegraph previously noted, markets saw little chance of Fed easing policy until the end of 2027 as geopolitical uncertainty raised the odds of inflation making a comeback.
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool put the chances of the Fed changing rates at next week’s meeting at practically zero.
“The cleanest tells from here are still oil and policy. Oil below $100 would support the relief case, while clearer Fed signalling would help compress the policy premium,” trading company QCP Capital wrote in its latest “Market Color” analysis on Wednesday.
“Until then, the broader message remains the same: risk has stepped back from the brink, but the underlying macro and geopolitical overhang has not been cleared.”
Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.
Flying Tulip Adds Withdrawal Circuit Breaker After DeFi Exploits
Flying Tulip, a decentralized finance (DeFi) platform founded by DeFi developer Andre Cronje, has added a circuit breaker that can delay or queue withdrawals during abnormal outflows, as April DeFi losses climbed amid a string of major exploits.
According to Flying Tulip’s documentation, the mechanism is designed to slow funds leaving the protocol if outflow capacity is exceeded, giving the team time to investigate suspicious activity and limiting how much an attacker could drain in a worst-case scenario.
Flying Tulip said the circuit breaker works differently across products. In the first version of the circuit breaker, used in its Perpetual PUT product, withdrawals can revert and users must retry later. In the second version, used in Flying Tulip’s stable asset and settlement currency, ftUSD, withdrawals are queued and become claimable after a delay instead of being rejected outright.
Flying Tulip said the circuit breaker is built with a “fail-open” design, meaning transactions would still be allowed if the safety mechanism itself were to malfunction. The platform said users can track the feature through a dedicated status page.
The design adds a new layer of protection for the DeFi platform as recent industry exploits exposed risks that extend beyond smart contract code.
Circuit breaker definition. Source: Flying Tulip
Recent exploits put broader security failures in focus
The added attention to outflow controls comes as recent exploits underscored vulnerabilities tied to signers, infrastructure and collateral design rather than only smart contract bugs.
Amir Hajian, a digital assets researcher at trading firm Keyrock, said the biggest failures in April were increasingly linked to operational and infrastructure weaknesses, including compromised multisigs, configuration flaws and key leaks.
The new mechanism deployed by Flying Tulip is designed to slow abnormal outflows and give the protocol time to respond when losses stem from failures outside of the smart contract itself.
Related: Phishing, deepfakes, supply chain attacks to fuel 2026’s biggest crypto hacks: CertiK
Hajian highlighted April’s DeFi losses, which reached over $600 million in the first 18 days of the month, with two incidents accounting for 95% of the damage.
On April 2, Solana-based decentralized exchange Drift Protocol suffered an exploit, with estimated losses at about $280 million. On April 19, liquid restaking platform Kelp was exploited for about $293 million, prompting lending protocol Aave to freeze rsETH markets on V3 and V4.
Magazine: 53 DeFi projects infiltrated, 50M NEO tokens could be ‘given back’: Asia Express
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.
Bitcoin buyers show ‘renewed conviction’ with BTC price push toward $79K
Bitcoin reached multi-month highs at $79,000 as bulls regained control and exchange reserves tightened, signaling buyers returning and reduced sell pressure.
AAVE Breakdown Targets $85 Support Before Dead Cat Bounce to $110
Ted Hisokawa
Apr 23, 2026 09:51
AAVE’s collapse below all moving averages exposes the $85-87 support zone as the final technical floor, while contrarian smart money positioning at 59% long signals a potential 20% recovery rally o…
The Blood in the Streets
AAVE is hemorrhaging at $91.12, down 2.85% and looking more like a distressed altcoin than a DeFi blue chip. The token has violently broken below every moving average from the 7-day ($96.27) through the 200-day ($156.30) – a technical massacre that typically signals deeper pain ahead.
The momentum indicators paint a bleak picture of exhausted bulls and persistent selling pressure. With RSI sliding to 42.55, we’re witnessing controlled demolition rather than panic selling, while the MACD histogram’s flatline at zero confirms that buying interest has completely evaporated. This isn’t oversold bouncing territory – it’s the kind of methodical breakdown that precedes capitulation wicks.
Critical Support Zone Dead Ahead
The immediate support at $94.67 has crumbled, leaving AAVE exposed to the $89.24 level that’s currently being tested. Below that lies the critical $87.36 support, which converges with the lower Bollinger Band at $81.84 to create a mathematical floor around $85-87.
Any relief attempts face a gauntlet of overhead resistance. The broken $94.67 level now acts as immediate resistance, followed by the psychological $98.22 barrier that’s been rejecting rallies. The 20-day EMA at $96.80 represents the bear market fortress that must fall before any meaningful recovery toward the upper Bollinger Band target of $110+.
Smart Money Contradiction
The derivatives data reveals a fascinating divergence from the technical carnage. While price action screams capitulation, smart money positioning shows 59% long bias among top traders compared to retail’s balanced 53% long exposure. This institutional accumulation during retail panic typically precedes violent reversals.
Open interest surged 6.53% to $62.5 million even as price declined, indicating large players are building positions while weak hands exit. The neutral funding rate at 0.0046% suggests no leverage exhaustion yet, leaving room for either direction to run.
The Trading Reality
The path of least resistance points toward the $85-87 support zone within the next week. Any bounce above $94 should be faded with stops above $98.50, targeting the mathematical support cluster for a 6-8% decline.
However, the smart money accumulation pattern warns against aggressive shorting. If AAVE can reclaim $94.67 and hold above $89, the spring-loaded positioning could trigger a violent squeeze toward $110 – representing a 20% recovery move that would catch both bears and retail off-guard.
The technical breakdown demands respect, but the derivatives positioning suggests the selling may be more orchestrated than organic. Trade the levels, not the headlines.
Image source: Shutterstock