Concerns are mounting that global equity markets may be drifting into another bubble, fueled by relentless optimism about AI. If that bubble cracks in 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market could be among the first to feel the fallout.
Key takeaways:
AI bubble risks could hit crypto first, as overstretched, debt-funded equity markets unwind.
Bitcoin may fall to $60,000–$75,000, but institutional support could help limit losses compared to past crashes.
AI bubble can trigger “severe” meltdown in stocks
In November, 45% of fund managers surveyed by Bank of America flagged an “AI bubble” as the market’s biggest tail risk, up from just 11% in September.
AI bubble vs. other risks in 2026. Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
More than half of respondents said they believe AI stocks are already trading in bubble territory, thanks to huge spending and poor return on investment.
Companies such as Meta Platforms, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Oracle have ramped up AI infrastructure spending in 2025.
Hyperscalers’ capital spending. Source: Bloomberg
That spending is expected to surge, with combined capital expenditures, or capex, predicted to rise 64% year-over-year to more than $500 billion by 2026, according to Alexander Joshi, Head of Behavioral Finance at Barclays UK.
“Estimates place AI data centres among the largest infrastructure build-outs in modern history,” he wrote in a November report, adding:
“AI data centres now drive a significant portion of US GDP growth. While not inherently bad, this dependence is risky if AI momentum stalls. If expectations break, the snapback could be severe.”
Financial analyst HedgieMarkets warned that the AI boom risks a far harsher crash than the 2000s dot-com bubble burst, arguing the sector spent roughly $400 billion to generate just $60 billion in revenue in 2025, with most firms seeing no returns.
🦔I think the AI bubble is going to pop, and when it does, it’s going to be uglier than people expect. Forrester predicts a market correction in 2026, and honestly, I think they’re being optimistic. The sector is spending $400 billion while only bringing in $60 billion in…
Unlike the equity-funded dot-com era, today’s AI expansion is debt-driven, raising the risk of cascading failures across private equity, banks, insurers, and already-stressed consumers if growth expectations collapse.
Economic historian Carlota Perez cautioned that an AI and crypto bust could lead to a global economic collapse of “unimaginable proportions.”
How low can Bitcoin go if AI bubble pops in 2026?
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino warned an AI sector correction could spill over into crypto markets in 2026, calling it the year’s “biggest risk for Bitcoin,” while citing its positive correlation with US equities as the basis for his bearish outlook.
BTC/USD and Nasdaq 100’s 52-week correlation coefficient chart. Source: TradingView
Ardoino added that BTC’s correction will not be as severe as it was during the 2022 (-77%) and 2018 (-84%) bear markets, due to its increasing institutional exposure.
As of December, Bitcoin was down by around 30% from its record high of $106,200.
Analyst Nomad Bullstreet said the Bitcoin price may not decline below its average production cost per coin in the $71,000-75,000 range, a target area previously suggested by BTC’s prevailing bearish flag pattern.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Concerns are mounting that global equity markets may be drifting into another bubble, fueled by relentless optimism about AI. If that bubble cracks in 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market could be among the first to feel the fallout.
Key takeaways:
AI bubble risks could hit crypto first, as overstretched, debt-funded equity markets unwind.
Bitcoin may fall to $60,000–$75,000, but institutional support could help limit losses compared to past crashes.
AI bubble can trigger “severe” meltdown in stocks
In November, 45% of fund managers surveyed by Bank of America flagged an “AI bubble” as the market’s biggest tail risk, up from just 11% in September.
AI bubble vs. other risks in 2026. Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
More than half of respondents said they believe AI stocks are already trading in bubble territory, thanks to huge spending and poor return on investment.
Companies such as Meta Platforms, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Oracle have ramped up AI infrastructure spending in 2025.
Hyperscalers’ capital spending. Source: Bloomberg
That spending is expected to surge, with combined capital expenditures, or capex, predicted to rise 64% year-over-year to more than $500 billion by 2026, according to Alexander Joshi, Head of Behavioral Finance at Barclays UK.
“Estimates place AI data centres among the largest infrastructure build-outs in modern history,” he wrote in a November report, adding:
“AI data centres now drive a significant portion of US GDP growth. While not inherently bad, this dependence is risky if AI momentum stalls. If expectations break, the snapback could be severe.”
Financial analyst HedgieMarkets warned that the AI boom risks a far harsher crash than the 2000s dot-com bubble burst, arguing the sector spent roughly $400 billion to generate just $60 billion in revenue in 2025, with most firms seeing no returns.
🦔I think the AI bubble is going to pop, and when it does, it’s going to be uglier than people expect. Forrester predicts a market correction in 2026, and honestly, I think they’re being optimistic. The sector is spending $400 billion while only bringing in $60 billion in…
Unlike the equity-funded dot-com era, today’s AI expansion is debt-driven, raising the risk of cascading failures across private equity, banks, insurers, and already-stressed consumers if growth expectations collapse.
Economic historian Carlota Perez cautioned that an AI and crypto bust could lead to a global economic collapse of “unimaginable proportions.”
How low can Bitcoin go if AI bubble pops in 2026?
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino warned an AI sector correction could spill over into crypto markets in 2026, calling it the year’s “biggest risk for Bitcoin,” while citing its positive correlation with US equities as the basis for his bearish outlook.
BTC/USD and Nasdaq 100’s 52-week correlation coefficient chart. Source: TradingView
Ardoino added that BTC’s correction will not be as severe as it was during the 2022 (-77%) and 2018 (-84%) bear markets, due to its increasing institutional exposure.
As of December, Bitcoin was down by around 30% from its record high of $106,200.
Analyst Nomad Bullstreet said the Bitcoin price may not decline below its average production cost per coin in the $71,000-75,000 range, a target area previously suggested by BTC’s prevailing bearish flag pattern.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Adoption is voluntary. Merchants participate because Bitcoin Lightning fees are typically under 1%, compared with the roughly 3% average charged by credit card networks.
Residents can pay municipal bills, including taxes, parking fines and tuition, in BTC or USDT using standard QR-code invoices.
The city balances the ecosystem by using BTC for payments, USDT for stability and LVGA as a local loyalty token.
The city does not hold volatile crypto assets. Payments are converted instantly into Swiss francs (CHF) through Bitcoin Suisse, limiting the city’s exposure to crypto price volatility.
The cobblestone streets of Lugano, Switzerland are better known for their Mediterranean-style piazzas and high-end boutiques than for radical economic shifts. But look closer at storefronts along Via Nassa, and the familiar “Visa” and “Mastercard” stickers have a new neighbor: a bright yellow “Plan ₿” decal.
In this lakeside enclave, Bitcoin is no longer just a digital asset tucked away in a cold wallet. It is a functional currency used to buy everything from a morning espresso to a Big Mac and even to settle municipal tax bills.
The vision behind a decentralized Plan ₿
Launched in 2022 as a partnership between the City of Lugano and Tether, Plan ₿ was not designed as a marketing stunt. It was conceived as a structural overhaul of the city’s financial rails.
While countries such as El Salvador have pursued top-down Bitcoin mandates, Lugano’s approach is quintessentially Swiss: voluntary, highly organized and focused on reducing merchant friction.
The ecosystem rests on three pillars: Bitcoin (BTC) for sovereign value, Tether’s USDt (USDT) for price stability in larger commerce and the LVGA token, a local stablecoin that powers a city-wide loyalty program.
The merchant experience and organic growth
For local shopkeepers, the transition to crypto is driven less by ideology and more by the bottom line. Traditional credit card processors in Switzerland can charge merchants upward of 3% per transaction. By contrast, Bitcoin payments made via the Lightning Network, a layer-2 protocol that enables instant, low-fee transactions, often cost less than 1%.
One local shop owner describes the shift as an organic process. It’s “like a tree growing,” he told the BBC. “This tree will grow very big in five, 10 years.” While crypto payments currently account for only a small share of his daily sales, the infrastructure is already in place, waiting for the “mass” in mass adoption.
To bridge the gap, the city distributed free smart POS terminals, provided by GoCrypto, to more than 350 merchants. These devices handle the technical heavy lifting. The merchant enters the price in Swiss francs (CHF), the customer scans a QR code, and the merchant can choose to receive the settlement instantly in CHF to avoid volatility or retain the crypto.
The circular economy
Lugano’s operational backbone is the MyLugano app. This is where the “how-to” of daily life in the city becomes tangible.
When users pay with crypto at participating local shops, they receive up to 10% cashback in LVGA tokens.
These tokens are not just digital points. They are pegged to the Swiss franc and accepted for city services, public parking and even childcare fees.
This creates a self-sustaining loop. A tourist might pay for a luxury watch in USDT, earn LVGA cashback and then use that “digital change” to pay for a boat ride across Lake Lugano. By keeping value within these digital rails, the city reduces reliance on certain traditional banking fee structures, keeping more transaction value within the local ecosystem.
Governance on the blockchain through taxes and fines
Perhaps the most radical “how-to” in Lugano is how residents interact with the state. Lugano is one of the few places in the world where all municipal invoices, from property taxes to parking tickets, can be paid using Bitcoin or Tether.
The process is remarkably mundane, which is exactly the point. An invoice arrives with a standard Swiss QR code. The resident scans it with a wallet, confirms the exchange rate, which is locked in for a short window to prevent slippage, and the debt is settled. The city’s administration describes this as a “complete automation” of financial flows, reducing the administrative burden on the local treasury.
Institutional infrastructure and the 2025 milestone
The momentum behind Plan ₿ reached a new peak in October 2025 during the fourth annual Plan ₿ Forum. The event drew a record 4,000 participants from 64 countries, representing a 140% increase in attendance since the project’s inception. This growth is not merely about tourism; it reflects a deepening level of institutional interest.
In 2025, Lugano further consolidated its position by issuing its fifth digital bond on SDX, the SIX Digital Exchange, demonstrating that blockchain infrastructure extends beyond retail payments to sophisticated municipal debt markets.
The city has also become a magnet for brain gain, attracting more than 110 crypto-related startups that have relocated to the region, drawn by the regulatory clarity provided under Switzerland’s FINMA framework.
The skeptical manager’s perspective on risk
However, any professional analysis must account for friction. Not everyone in Lugano is a believer. Local critics, including university students and some academics, remain wary. The primary concern is not the technology itself, but custodial risk.
In Switzerland, traditional bank deposits are protected by state-backed guarantees. Crypto assets held in digital wallets, however, do not benefit from the same protections. “If the platform where my digital wallet is recorded fails or goes bankrupt, my cryptocurrencies disappear,” warns Sergio Rossi, an economics professor at the University of Fribourg.
Finally, while the technical infrastructure may be fully in place, “psychological adoption” remains a generational challenge. Many residents still view Bitcoin primarily as an investment rather than as a medium of exchange.
Blueprint for the future
Lugano’s experiment suggests that large-scale Bitcoin integration may depend less on ideology and more on practical user interfaces. By focusing on three specific workflows, the city has created a repeatable model for municipalities worldwide:
Provide free hardware to merchants to remove the “entry fee” for adoption
Ensure the currency can be used for routine obligations such as taxes, not just discretionary purchases like luxury goods
Use a local loyalty token to keep value circulating within the city.
As the world watches central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) with a mix of curiosity and concern, Lugano offers a contrasting model: a city experimenting with private, decentralized and stable digital assets, positioned as an alternative to state-issued digital currencies.
Quantum computing has long been viewed as a threat to cryptocurrencies, a technology that could one day crack the cryptography securing Bitcoin and other blockchains. In 2026, that fear is resurfacing as major tech firms accelerate quantum research and investment.
While the technology is not yet ready for widespread use, the pace of investment and experimentation has gained traction. In February, Microsoft unveiled its Majorana 1 chip, which the company dubbed “the world’s first quantum chip powered by a new Topological Core architecture,” rekindling debate about how quickly quantum hardware might move from research into real-world systems.
However, despite growing attention, most experts say the risk to crypto remains theoretical, not imminent. The real concern, they argue, is not a sudden cryptographic collapse next year, but what attackers are already doing today to prepare for a post-quantum future.
Clark Alexander, co-founder and head of AI at Argentum AI, told Cointelegraph that he expects quantum computing to find “extremely limited commercial use” in 2026.
Nic Puckrin, crypto analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, was more blunt. “The whole ‘quantum threat to Bitcoin’ narrative is 90% marketing and 10% imminent threat… we’re almost certainly at least a decade away from computers that can actually break existing cryptography,” he said.
Why cryptocurrencies are at risk
Bitcoin (BTC) and most major blockchain networks rely on public-key cryptography to secure wallets and authorize transactions. Private keys sign transactions, public keys verify them, and hash functions secure the ledger. If a future quantum machine can derive private keys from public keys, funds could theoretically be stolen at scale.
The issue has even reached US regulators. In September, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)’s crypto task force received a proposal warning that quantum computing could eventually break the encryption protecting Bitcoin and other digital assets.
SEC reviews proposal to make crypto quantum-resistant. Source: Bitcoin Archive
At the technical level, consensus among cryptographers is that signatures are the weakest link. “Any cryptographic system whose security relies on a mathematical problem that Shor’s algorithm can efficiently solve (difficulty of factoring large semiprimes),” said Sofiia Kireieva, blockchain R&D and subject-matter expert at Boosty Labs.
She added that if a quantum-capable adversary targeted Bitcoin or a similar blockchain, the elliptic curve digital signature algorithm (ECDSA) used for private-public keys would be the “weakest link.” In contrast, the SHA-256 hash functions are much less vulnerable. Grover’s algorithm could at best give a quadratic speed-up, which is mitigated by using larger hashes, according to Kireieva.
Ahmad Shadid, founder of the Switzerland-based O Foundation, also said that signatures are the core vulnerability. “The cryptographic component that would be most vulnerable is the ECDSA digital signature algorithm, specifically, the security of public/private key pairs used to sign transactions, and especially with address reuse (this significantly increases vulnerability),” he said.
Despite rising concern, major technical barriers make a cryptographic collapse by 2026 highly unlikely.
Kireieva noted the physics barrier facing quantum hardware. “Current quantum devices have only hundreds or thousands of noisy qubits, it’s far below what’s needed to run deep algorithms like Shor’s… This means a realistic cryptanalytic attack would demand millions of physical qubits, ultra-low gate error rates, and the ability to perform millions of sequential operations without losing coherence,” she said.
A quantum computer would be able to derive a private key from a public key. Source: Anduro
Kireieva added that this would also require breakthroughs in materials science, quantum control, fabrication and signal isolation. “The bottleneck is not just engineering — it is the fundamental physics of the universe,” she said.
Alexander took this even further. He said that quantum computers are not only unlikely to break Bitcoin’s encryption by 2026, but may never do so under current approaches. He said that the real danger lies elsewhere, arguing that advances in classical computing pose a greater risk to encryption than quantum systems, and that both quantum and conventional machines would require fundamentally new algorithms before public-key cryptography could be realistically compromised.
Meanwhile, the real threat in 2026 is not that Bitcoin breaks; it is that attackers are already collecting data.
“The quantum threat coming to life in 2026 is highly unlikely,” said Sean Ren, co-founder of Sahara AI, “but bad actors are already collecting as much encrypted data as possible… so that, when the tech is ready, all that archived data becomes readable.”
Leo Fan, co-founder of Cysic, echoed that view, saying that one typical attack scenario is “harvest now, decrypt later,” where adversaries are already collecting sensitive encrypted data to unlock once quantum breakthroughs arrive.
More than half of TLS 1.3 traffic is using post-quantum (PQ) encryption. Source: Cloudflare Radar
Shadid explained that this means that someone could be downloading terabytes of this publicly accessible onchain data simply to collect public keys, which can then be used with a quantum computer to decode private keys.
Millions of Bitcoin remain exposed: How is crypto preparing?
Kireieva estimated that 25%–30% of all BTC (around 4 million coins) are in vulnerable addresses, addresses whose public keys have already been exposed onchain, making them more susceptible to private-key recovery by a sufficiently powerful quantum computer.
She advised users to minimize exposure by avoiding address reuse, ensuring public keys remain hidden until funds are spent, and staying prepared to migrate to quantum-resistant wallets and address formats as soon as they become available.
The crypto community has also taken practical steps. In July, cryptography experts outlined a plan to replace Bitcoin’s current signature systems with quantum-resistant alternatives, noting that about a quarter of Bitcoin’s funds are already exposed due to public keys being revealed onchain.
In November, Qastle announced plans to bring quantum-grade security to hot wallets by upgrading the cryptography behind the scenes. Instead of relying on predictable software-based randomness, it uses quantum-generated randomness and post-quantum encryption to protect keys, transactions and communications, all without extra hardware or complicated setup.
The crypto industry faces no quantum doomsday in 2026. However, the conversation about the threat of shifts from “if” to “when.”
“The likelihood that a major quantum attack… occurs by 2026 is low-to-moderate,” Fan said. “However, the likelihood that quantum becomes a top-tier risk factor for crypto security awareness in 2026… is high,” he added.
Quantum computing has long been viewed as a threat to cryptocurrencies, a technology that could one day crack the cryptography securing Bitcoin and other blockchains. In 2026, that fear is resurfacing as major tech firms accelerate quantum research and investment.
While the technology is not yet ready for widespread use, the pace of investment and experimentation has gained traction. In February, Microsoft unveiled its Majorana 1 chip, which the company dubbed “the world’s first quantum chip powered by a new Topological Core architecture,” rekindling debate about how quickly quantum hardware might move from research into real-world systems.
However, despite growing attention, most experts say the risk to crypto remains theoretical, not imminent. The real concern, they argue, is not a sudden cryptographic collapse next year, but what attackers are already doing today to prepare for a post-quantum future.
Clark Alexander, co-founder and head of AI at Argentum AI, told Cointelegraph that he expects quantum computing to find “extremely limited commercial use” in 2026.
Nic Puckrin, crypto analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, was more blunt. “The whole ‘quantum threat to Bitcoin’ narrative is 90% marketing and 10% imminent threat… we’re almost certainly at least a decade away from computers that can actually break existing cryptography,” he said.
Why cryptocurrencies are at risk
Bitcoin (BTC) and most major blockchain networks rely on public-key cryptography to secure wallets and authorize transactions. Private keys sign transactions, public keys verify them, and hash functions secure the ledger. If a future quantum machine can derive private keys from public keys, funds could theoretically be stolen at scale.
The issue has even reached US regulators. In September, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)’s crypto task force received a proposal warning that quantum computing could eventually break the encryption protecting Bitcoin and other digital assets.
SEC reviews proposal to make crypto quantum-resistant. Source: Bitcoin Archive
At the technical level, consensus among cryptographers is that signatures are the weakest link. “Any cryptographic system whose security relies on a mathematical problem that Shor’s algorithm can efficiently solve (difficulty of factoring large semiprimes),” said Sofiia Kireieva, blockchain R&D and subject-matter expert at Boosty Labs.
She added that if a quantum-capable adversary targeted Bitcoin or a similar blockchain, the elliptic curve digital signature algorithm (ECDSA) used for private-public keys would be the “weakest link.” In contrast, the SHA-256 hash functions are much less vulnerable. Grover’s algorithm could at best give a quadratic speed-up, which is mitigated by using larger hashes, according to Kireieva.
Ahmad Shadid, founder of the Switzerland-based O Foundation, also said that signatures are the core vulnerability. “The cryptographic component that would be most vulnerable is the ECDSA digital signature algorithm, specifically, the security of public/private key pairs used to sign transactions, and especially with address reuse (this significantly increases vulnerability),” he said.
Despite rising concern, major technical barriers make a cryptographic collapse by 2026 highly unlikely.
Kireieva noted the physics barrier facing quantum hardware. “Current quantum devices have only hundreds or thousands of noisy qubits, it’s far below what’s needed to run deep algorithms like Shor’s… This means a realistic cryptanalytic attack would demand millions of physical qubits, ultra-low gate error rates, and the ability to perform millions of sequential operations without losing coherence,” she said.
A quantum computer would be able to derive a private key from a public key. Source: Anduro
Kireieva added that this would also require breakthroughs in materials science, quantum control, fabrication and signal isolation. “The bottleneck is not just engineering — it is the fundamental physics of the universe,” she said.
Alexander took this even further. He said that quantum computers are not only unlikely to break Bitcoin’s encryption by 2026, but may never do so under current approaches. He said that the real danger lies elsewhere, arguing that advances in classical computing pose a greater risk to encryption than quantum systems, and that both quantum and conventional machines would require fundamentally new algorithms before public-key cryptography could be realistically compromised.
Meanwhile, the real threat in 2026 is not that Bitcoin breaks; it is that attackers are already collecting data.
“The quantum threat coming to life in 2026 is highly unlikely,” said Sean Ren, co-founder of Sahara AI, “but bad actors are already collecting as much encrypted data as possible… so that, when the tech is ready, all that archived data becomes readable.”
Leo Fan, co-founder of Cysic, echoed that view, saying that one typical attack scenario is “harvest now, decrypt later,” where adversaries are already collecting sensitive encrypted data to unlock once quantum breakthroughs arrive.
More than half of TLS 1.3 traffic is using post-quantum (PQ) encryption. Source: Cloudflare Radar
Shadid explained that this means that someone could be downloading terabytes of this publicly accessible onchain data simply to collect public keys, which can then be used with a quantum computer to decode private keys.
Millions of Bitcoin remain exposed: How is crypto preparing?
Kireieva estimated that 25%–30% of all BTC (around 4 million coins) are in vulnerable addresses, addresses whose public keys have already been exposed onchain, making them more susceptible to private-key recovery by a sufficiently powerful quantum computer.
She advised users to minimize exposure by avoiding address reuse, ensuring public keys remain hidden until funds are spent, and staying prepared to migrate to quantum-resistant wallets and address formats as soon as they become available.
The crypto community has also taken practical steps. In July, cryptography experts outlined a plan to replace Bitcoin’s current signature systems with quantum-resistant alternatives, noting that about a quarter of Bitcoin’s funds are already exposed due to public keys being revealed onchain.
In November, Qastle announced plans to bring quantum-grade security to hot wallets by upgrading the cryptography behind the scenes. Instead of relying on predictable software-based randomness, it uses quantum-generated randomness and post-quantum encryption to protect keys, transactions and communications, all without extra hardware or complicated setup.
The crypto industry faces no quantum doomsday in 2026. However, the conversation about the threat of shifts from “if” to “when.”
“The likelihood that a major quantum attack… occurs by 2026 is low-to-moderate,” Fan said. “However, the likelihood that quantum becomes a top-tier risk factor for crypto security awareness in 2026… is high,” he added.
Keonne Rodriguez, co-founder of Bitcoin privacy tool Samourai Wallet, spent Christmas Eve documenting his first day inside a US federal prison, offering a personal account as a crypto developer now serving a five-year sentence.
In a letter shared by The Rage, he described the experience of surrendering himself to the prison camp. The account detailed the intake process, which included searches, medical clearances and the transition into prison housing.
Rodriguez also described the emotional weight of leaving his family days before Christmas.
“While not at all comfortable, it is manageable. While I rather be at home with my wife and family, there are far worse places I could have ended up,” Rodriguez wrote. “I am thankful that all the prisoners here are respectful and downright friendly.”
The letter, dated Wednesday, Christmas Eve, marked the developer’s seventh day at the facility. He said that he was scheduled to receive his wife as his first visitor on Christmas Day.
Rodriguez’s imprisonment has become a focal point for debates over the criminal liability of open-source developers, particularly those working on crypto privacy tools. The case has been closely watched alongside the prosecution of Roman Storm, a co-founder of Tornado Cash, raising questions about whether writing and maintaining code can be treated as a criminal offense when third parties use that software for illicit activity.
Rodriguez celebrated Christmas early this year before going to prison. Source: Keonne Rodriguez
Community members sign petition for pardon
Rodriguez was sentenced on Nov. 19 on charges stemming from his involvement in the crypto mixing protocol.
A petition calling for clemency for Rodriguez had gathered over 12,000 signatures, reflecting sustained concern among privacy advocates and open-source developers. The petition described Rodriguez’s case as “a chilling attack on free speech and innovation.”
US President Donald Trump said he would review the case of Rodriguez, signaling a potential opening for clemency, after he started serving his sentence.
Speaking to reporters on Dec. 16, Trump said he had heard about the case and would “take a look at it,” adding that he was not familiar with the details but was open to reviewing it.
In a social post on Saturday, Rodriguez publicly called on Trump to grant a pardon, framing his prosecution as an example of “lawfare” carried out under the previous administration.
He argued that his case involved no direct victims and accused regulators and judges of targeting him as part of an anti-innovation agenda.
While Trump has not commented further on the request, his statement has kept the possibility of executive clemency in focus as the developer began serving his sentence.
AAVE price prediction shows potential 25-40% upside to $190-215 range within 4-6 weeks as oversold RSI at 34.75 and strong support at $146.40 set up recovery scenario.
The AAVE price prediction landscape has shifted dramatically as the token trades near critical support levels, presenting both significant risk and substantial upside potential. With AAVE currently priced at $151.43, down over 57% from its 52-week high of $357.78, technical indicators suggest a potential reversal is brewing.
AAVE Price Prediction Summary
• AAVE short-term target (1 week): $165-175 (+9% to +16%)
• Aave medium-term forecast (1 month): $190-216 range (+25% to +43%) • Key level to break for bullish continuation: $180.34 (SMA 20 resistance)
• Critical support if bearish: $146.40 (immediate support level)
Recent Aave Price Predictions from Analysts
The latest AAVE price prediction consensus among analysts reveals a cautiously optimistic outlook despite current technical challenges. Blockchain.News has issued an Aave forecast targeting $190 in the medium term, citing oversold RSI conditions at 35.7 and the critical $146.40 support level holding firm.
More aggressive predictions come from LeveX, projecting an AAVE price target of $340-350 in the short term based on technical breakout patterns with volume confirmation. However, this contrasts sharply with Hexn’s more conservative $150 target, suggesting significant disagreement among analysts about the near-term trajectory.
AInvest’s $216.75 AAVE price target appears most balanced, incorporating both the upcoming v4 upgrade catalyst and increasing institutional adoption trends. The market consensus generally favors recovery, but the wide range of predictions ($150-350) indicates substantial uncertainty in current market conditions.
AAVE Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Oversold Bounce
The current Aave technical analysis reveals a token positioned at a critical inflection point. With RSI at 34.75, AAVE has moved into oversold territory without reaching extreme levels, suggesting potential for a relief rally rather than a major reversal.
The MACD histogram at -4.1623 continues to show bearish momentum, but several analysts note early signs of this momentum weakening. AAVE’s position at 0.08 within the Bollinger Bands places it extremely close to the lower band at $145.62, historically a level where bounces occur.
Volume analysis shows mixed signals, with 24-hour trading volume of $11.6 million on Binance representing adequate but not exceptional participation. The daily ATR of $12.98 suggests normal volatility levels, providing reasonable risk parameters for position sizing.
Most concerning is AAVE’s position below all major moving averages, with the nearest resistance at the 7-day SMA of $161.18. The 20-day SMA at $180.34 represents the critical level that must be reclaimed for any sustained Aave forecast to turn bullish.
Aave Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for AAVE
The bullish AAVE price prediction scenario targets the $190-216 range based on several converging factors. Initial resistance at $161.18 (SMA 7) should provide the first test, followed by the more significant $180.34 level (SMA 20).
A successful break above $180.34 would activate the $190 AAVE price target identified by multiple analysts. The next logical target sits at $216.75, representing the middle Bollinger Band and a 43% gain from current levels.
The most aggressive scenario sees AAVE reaching the $340-350 range, but this would require a complete trend reversal and breakthrough of the $232.25 strong resistance level. This outcome depends heavily on the v4 upgrade catalyst and broader DeFi market recovery.
Bearish Risk for Aave
The bearish case for this AAVE price prediction centers on the failure to hold the $146.40 support level. A break below this critical level would likely trigger stops and accelerate selling toward the 52-week low of $138.42.
Further downside could target the $135 level identified in analyst predictions, representing a 10% decline from current prices. The bearish scenario gains credence if RSI breaks below 30 into deeply oversold territory while MACD histogram extends its negative readings.
Risk factors include broader crypto market weakness, DeFi sector underperformance, and any delays or issues with the anticipated v4 upgrade that forms a cornerstone of bullish predictions.
Should You Buy AAVE Now? Entry Strategy
The current setup suggests a measured approach rather than aggressive accumulation. For those considering whether to buy or sell AAVE, the technical picture supports scaled entries rather than large single purchases.
Primary entry zone: $146.40-151.43 (current support to current price) Secondary entry: $138.42-142 (if support breaks for deeper value) Stop-loss level: $135 (below 52-week low) Initial target: $165-175 (7-day SMA area)
Position sizing should account for the 15-20% risk to the stop-loss level. The risk-reward ratio favors buyers at current levels, with potential for 25-40% gains against 10-15% maximum loss if stops are honored.
For conservative investors, waiting for a break above $161.18 would provide confirmation of the bullish scenario, albeit at slightly higher entry prices.
AAVE Price Prediction Conclusion
This AAVE price prediction maintains a medium confidence level for upside to the $190-216 range over the next 4-6 weeks. The combination of oversold technical conditions, strong support at $146.40, and upcoming fundamental catalysts creates a favorable risk-reward setup.
Key indicators to monitor for confirmation include RSI holding above 30, MACD histogram stabilization, and most critically, reclaiming the $161.18 level on sustained volume. Invalidation would occur on a break below $146.40 with increased selling pressure.
The timeline for this Aave forecast centers on the next 4-6 weeks, when technical oversold conditions should resolve and fundamental developments around the v4 upgrade provide direction. Traders should remain flexible as the wide range of analyst predictions suggests significant uncertainty remains in AAVE’s near-term path.
LDO price prediction suggests upside to $0.75-$0.85 range within 30 days as MACD histogram turns bullish and oversold conditions create recovery opportunity from current $0.56 level.
LDO Price Prediction: Technical Recovery Points to $0.75-$0.85 Target
Lido DAO (LDO) is showing early signs of technical recovery after touching its 52-week low of $0.51, with multiple indicators suggesting a potential bounce toward the $0.75-$0.85 range over the next month. This LDO price prediction is based on bullish momentum signals emerging in key technical indicators and analyst consensus pointing to oversold bounce potential.
LDO Price Prediction Summary
• LDO short-term target (1 week): $0.66 (+17.9% from current $0.56)
• Lido DAO medium-term forecast (1 month): $0.75-$0.85 range (+34% to +52% upside)
• Key level to break for bullish continuation: $0.66 (immediate resistance)
• Critical support if bearish: $0.49 (strong support confluence)
Recent Lido DAO Price Predictions from Analysts
The analyst community shows moderate bullish consensus on LDO’s near-term prospects. Blockchain.News has issued two recent forecasts, with their latest LDO price prediction targeting $0.75-$0.85 for the medium term, citing positive MACD histogram and bullish momentum indicators. This represents the most optimistic view among recent predictions.
DigitalCoinPrice offers an even more aggressive short-term outlook with their Lido DAO forecast suggesting $0.88, implying a potential 65.25% increase by month-end. However, MEXC provides a more conservative perspective with a LDO price target of just $0.5352, based on modest 5% annual growth expectations.
The range of predictions from $0.5352 to $0.88 reflects uncertainty in the current market environment, but the technical setup appears to favor the more optimistic scenarios.
LDO Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Bullish Reversal
The Lido DAO technical analysis reveals several encouraging signals for bulls. The MACD histogram has turned positive at 0.0054, marking the first bullish momentum reading in recent sessions. While the main MACD line remains negative at -0.0317, the improving histogram suggests underlying momentum is shifting.
LDO’s current position within the Bollinger Bands at 0.44 indicates the token is trading in the lower half of its recent range, with room to move toward the upper band at $0.63. The 7-day SMA at $0.54 is beginning to flatten after a prolonged downtrend, while price has moved above this short-term average.
Trading volume of $3.83 million on Binance provides adequate liquidity for the anticipated move, though volume confirmation will be crucial for sustaining any breakout above the $0.66 resistance level.
Lido DAO Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for LDO
The primary bullish scenario for this LDO price prediction centers on breaking above $0.66, which represents both immediate resistance and the convergence of the 20-day SMA at $0.57. A sustained break above this level opens the path to $0.75, where the token previously found support during its decline from higher levels.
The ultimate LDO price target in the bullish case reaches $0.85, representing a 52% gain from current levels. This target aligns with the 50-day SMA at $0.65 and historical support/resistance zones. For this scenario to unfold, LDO needs to maintain momentum above $0.66 and see RSI climb above 50 to confirm the bullish shift.
Bearish Risk for Lido DAO
The bearish scenario becomes active if LDO fails to hold the critical $0.49 support level, which has served as both immediate and strong support. A break below this level could trigger further selling toward the 52-week low of $0.51, with limited technical support until the psychological $0.40 level.
Key risk factors include Bitcoin weakness that could drag altcoins lower, failure of the MACD histogram to sustain positive readings, and inability to generate sufficient volume to break resistance levels.
Should You Buy LDO Now? Entry Strategy
Based on this Lido DAO technical analysis, the current risk-reward setup favors controlled accumulation. The optimal buy or sell LDO strategy suggests entering positions in the $0.54-$0.56 range, with a tight stop-loss at $0.48 to limit downside risk.
For aggressive traders, a breakout entry above $0.66 offers better confirmation but reduces the risk-reward ratio. Conservative investors might wait for a retest of the $0.49 support level for maximum upside potential.
Position sizing should remain modest given the 63.88% distance from 52-week highs, suggesting LDO remains in a long-term downtrend despite short-term recovery prospects.
LDO Price Prediction Conclusion
This LDO price prediction maintains a MEDIUM confidence level for reaching the $0.75-$0.85 target within 30 days, contingent on breaking above $0.66 resistance. The bullish MACD histogram and oversold positioning support the Lido DAO forecast, though broader market conditions remain a significant variable.
Key indicators to monitor for confirmation include sustained MACD histogram readings above zero, RSI moving above 50, and daily closes above $0.66. Invalidation of this prediction would occur on a break below $0.49 support with volume confirmation.
The timeline for this prediction extends through January 2026, with the initial $0.66 target expected within 7-10 days if momentum continues building from current levels.
HBAR price prediction shows modest upside to $0.1160 in the next 24-48 hours, with Hedera forecast suggesting limited momentum as price trades near critical support.
HBAR Price Prediction Summary
• HBAR short-term target (1 week): $0.1160 (+5.45% from current $0.11)
• Hedera medium-term forecast (1 month): $0.1145-$0.14 range with high volatility expected
• Key level to break for bullish continuation: $0.12 (SMA 20 resistance)
• Critical support if bearish: $0.10 (Bollinger Band lower bound and strong support)
Recent Hedera Price Predictions from Analysts
The latest HBAR price prediction consensus from major platforms shows cautiously optimistic targets for the immediate term. Bitget’s analysis projects HBAR price target of $0.1145 by December 25, 2025, based on a conservative daily growth rate of 0.014%. Meanwhile, Blockchain.News offers a slightly more bullish Hedera forecast with a target of $0.1160 by December 26, 2025.
The most significant divergence appears in long-term projections, with Coinbase’s HBAR price prediction extending to $0.14 by 2026, suggesting a gradual 27% appreciation over the next year. This consensus indicates that while analysts expect modest short-term gains, the overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic rather than aggressively bullish.
What’s notable is the tight clustering of short-term predictions between $0.1145-$0.1160, suggesting limited volatility expectations despite HBAR’s historical price swings.
HBAR Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Cautious Recovery
The Hedera technical analysis reveals a mixed picture with several concerning signals that temper bullish expectations. HBAR currently trades at $0.11, precisely at the pivot point level, indicating a critical decision zone for the token’s next directional move.
The RSI reading of 36.38 sits in neutral territory but leans toward oversold conditions, which typically suggests potential for a bounce. However, this is contradicted by the moving average structure, where HBAR trades significantly below all major moving averages – 8% below the SMA 20 ($0.12), 27% below SMA 50 ($0.14), and a concerning 42% below the SMA 200 ($0.19).
The MACD histogram showing a positive 0.0005 reading provides the only clear bullish signal, suggesting that downward momentum is beginning to slow. The Bollinger Bands position at 0.2879 indicates HBAR is trading in the lower portion of its recent range, which historically has provided support for rebounds.
Trading volume of $6.65 million on Binance represents moderate activity but lacks the conviction needed for a strong directional move.
Hedera Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for HBAR
The primary HBAR price target in a bullish scenario is $0.1160, representing a 5.45% gain that aligns with analyst consensus. This target is technically justified by the distance to the next Fibonacci retracement level and recent resistance points.
For this scenario to unfold, HBAR needs to break above the immediate resistance at $0.12 (SMA 20) with sustained volume. A successful break would likely target the Bollinger Band upper bound at $0.14, which coincides with the SMA 50 and represents a logical profit-taking zone for short-term traders.
The bullish case is supported by the oversold RSI conditions and the positive MACD histogram, suggesting that selling pressure is diminishing.
Bearish Risk for Hedera
The downside Hedera forecast presents significant risk if the $0.11 pivot point fails to hold. The immediate target in a bearish scenario would be $0.10, which represents both the Bollinger Band lower bound and the 52-week low support level.
A break below $0.10 would be particularly concerning as it would establish new lows and potentially trigger additional selling pressure. The fact that HBAR trades 61.94% below its 52-week high of $0.29 indicates substantial weakness that could continue if broader market conditions deteriorate.
Risk factors include the overall weak positioning below all moving averages and the potential for volume to decrease during the holiday period, which could amplify any negative moves.
Should You Buy HBAR Now? Entry Strategy
The current technical setup suggests a buy or sell HBAR decision hinges on risk tolerance and time horizon. For aggressive traders, the current level near $0.11 offers a reasonable risk-reward setup with a tight stop-loss at $0.10.
Entry Strategy:
– Conservative entry: Wait for a break above $0.12 with volume confirmation
– Aggressive entry: Current levels around $0.11 with strict risk management
– Stop-loss: $0.0995 (below the 52-week low for cushion)
– Take-profit targets: $0.1160 (short-term), $0.14 (extended target)
Position sizing should remain conservative given the mixed technical picture and holiday trading conditions that could amplify volatility in either direction.
HBAR Price Prediction Conclusion
The HBAR price prediction for the next week points to modest upside potential targeting $0.1160, with medium confidence based on analyst consensus and oversold technical conditions. However, the Hedera forecast remains constrained by significant overhead resistance and weak longer-term trend structure.
Key indicators to monitor include RSI movement above 40 for confirmation of momentum shift, MACD line crossing above the signal line, and most importantly, a sustained break above the $0.12 resistance level with volume.
The prediction timeline suggests potential movement toward $0.1160 within 24-48 hours, but traders should remain cautious of the $0.10 support level, as a break below could invalidate the bullish thesis and trigger further downside toward new lows.
Confidence Level: MEDIUM – Technical indicators show mixed signals with modest bullish bias supported by oversold conditions and analyst consensus.
Bitcoin’s failure to sustain above $90,000 indicates a negative sentiment, where rallies are being sold into.
Several major altcoins threaten to break below their recent lows.
Bitcoin (BTC) has dipped back below $87,000, indicating a lack of demand at higher levels. Glassnode said in a post on X that the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of net flows into BTC and ETH exchange-traded funds has turned negative, signaling:
“a phase of muted participation and partial disengagement from institutional allocators.”
Along with institutional investors, participation by retail and short-term traders has also decreased. CryptoQuant data shows that the 30-day SMA of active addresses has declined to 807,000, its lowest level in the past year.
In addition, the 30-day SMA of Binance depositing and withdrawing addresses shows a drop to annual lows, indicating a market stalemate.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView
BTC neither saw a blow-off top in 2025 nor a sharp 70% or 80% drawdown. Entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano said in an interview on CNBC that some investors are disappointed that BTC did not soar to $150,000 or higher. However, they have to remember that BTC is up 300% in three years.
What are the crucial support levels to watch out for in BTC and major altcoins? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price prediction
Buyers pushed the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($88,850) on Monday, but the long wick on the candlestick shows selling at higher levels.
The bears will attempt to pull the price to the crucial support at $84,000, which is likely to attract buyers. If Bitcoin’s price turns up from $84,000 and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it suggests a possible range formation in the near term. The BTC/USDT pair could swing from $84,000 to $94,589 for some time.
On the contrary, if the price breaks below $84,000, it signals the resumption of the downmove. The pair could drop to $80,600 and eventually to the vital support at $74,508.
Ether price prediction
Ether (ETH) pierced the 20-day EMA ($3,010) on Monday, but the bulls could not clear the 50-day SMA ($3,088) resistance.
The bears are attempting to seize control by pulling the Ether price below the support line of the symmetrical triangle pattern. If they succeed, the ETH/USDT pair could slump to $2,623 and then to $2,373.
Conversely, if the price turns up sharply from the support line and breaks above the moving averages, it suggests that the pair could remain inside the triangle for some more time. Buyers will be back in the game after ETH price closes above the resistance line.
BNB price prediction
BNB (BNB) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($865) on Monday, indicating selling on minor rallies.
The BNB/USDT pair risks falling below the uptrend line. If that happens, the BNB price could tumble to the $790 level. This is a crucial level for the bulls to defend, as a break below $790 may sink the pair to $730.
On the contrary, if the price bounces from the uptrend line or the $790 level and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it suggests that the pair may rally to $928. A close above $928 opens the doors for a rally to $1,019, signalling that the corrective phase may be over.
XRP price prediction
XRP (XRP) resumed its slide toward the support line of the descending channel pattern, indicating that the bears are in command.
The bulls are expected to aggressively defend the $1.61 level, but if the bears prevail, the XRP/USDT pair could nosedive toward the Oct. 10 low of $1.25.
Instead, if the price turns up from the support line and breaks above the moving averages, it suggests that the pair may remain inside the channel for a while longer.
The bulls will be back in the driver’s seat on a close above the downtrend line. The pair could then rally toward $3.10.
Solana price prediction
Solana’s (SOL) failure to climb above the 20-day EMA ($128) indicates that every relief rally is being sold into.
The SOL/USDT pair risks breaking below the $116 level. If that happens, the Solana price could plummet to $108 and eventually to the critical support at $95, where the buyers are expected to step in.
On the upside, the bulls will have to push the price above the moving averages to signal strength. A short-term trend change will be indicated after the pair ascends above the $147 resistance. The pair could then march toward $172.
Dogecoin price prediction
Dogecoin (DOGE) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($0.13) on Tuesday, indicating that the bears remain in control.
Sellers will try to start a new downtrend by pulling the Dogecoin price below $0.12. If they succeed, the DOGE/USDT pair could slide to the Oct. 10 low of $0.10.
This bearish view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the moving averages. Such a move suggests that the market has rejected the breakdown below the $0.13 support. The pair may then rise to $0.16 and subsequently to $0.19.
Cardano price prediction
Cardano (ADA) turned down from the $0.37 level, indicating that the bears are trying to flip the level into resistance.
Sellers will attempt to resume the downtrend by pulling the Cardano price below $0.34. If they do that, the ADA/USDT pair could plunge to $0.30 and, after that, to the Oct. 10 low of $0.27.
Time is running out for the bulls. They will have to swiftly thrust the price above the moving averages to signal a comeback. The pair could then rally to the breakdown level of $0.50, which is likely to act as a major hurdle.
Bitcoin Cash price prediction
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) turned up from the 20-day EMA ($570) on Monday, but the bulls could not sustain the bounce.
The bears are attempting to strengthen their position by sinking the Bitcoin Cash price below the 20-day EMA. If they can pull it off, the BCH/USDT pair could descend to the 50-day SMA ($541).
On the contrary, if BCH price turns up sharply from the moving averages, it suggests that the bulls continue to buy on dips. That increases the likelihood of a rally to the $631 to $651 resistance zone.
Chainlink price prediction
Chainlink (LINK) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($12.91) on Monday, indicating that the bears continue to sell on rallies.
There is minor support at $11.61, but if the level cracks, the LINK/USDT pair could drop to the strong support at $10.94. Buyers are expected to vigorously defend the $10.94 level, as a break below it may sink the LINK price to the Oct. 10 low of $7.90.
Buyers will have to drive the pair above the moving averages to gain the upper hand. The pair may then rally to $15.01. A break and close above the $15.01 resistance suggests that the downtrend may be over.
Hyperliquid price prediction
Hyperliquid’s (HYPE) bounce could not even reach the 20-day EMA ($27.09), indicating a lack of demand from the bulls at higher levels.
The bears will attempt to pull the Hyperliquid price below the $22.19 support. If they manage to do that, the HYPE/USDT pair could retest the Oct. 10 low of $20.82. Buyers are expected to step in at the $20.82 level, as a break below it may sink the pair to $16.90.
The bulls will have to push the price above the 20-day EMA to signal strength. The pair may then climb to $29.37 and later to the breakdown level of $35.50.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
