Deutsche Börse Group, a global exchange organization, has entered into a strategic partnership with the US crypto exchange Kraken with a mission of bridging traditional and digital markets.
Kraken and Deutsche Börse are joining forces to create unified access across traditional and digital asset markets, according to a joint announcement on Thursday.
The companies plan to improve institutional access to regulated crypto products, including spot trading, tokenized markets and derivatives, as well as enhanced liquidity for institutions across multiple jurisdictions.
“Across our entire value this partnership will further enhance our support for institutional clients in the digital asset era and pave the way for digital capital markets,” Deutsche Börse Group CEO Stephan Leithner said.
XStocks, 360T and Eurex among multiple integrations
The partnership targets a broad set of integrations, including the addition of Kraken-backed xStocks to Deutsche Börse’s digital asset infrastructure 360X.
In the first phase of collaboration, Kraken will integrate directly with 360T, providing its clients with bank-grade FX liquidity and significantly scaling its fiat-to-crypto rails and ensuring institutional execution.
Subject to regulatory approvals, the collaboration also aims to expand Kraken’s access to Europe’s regulated futures and options markets by adding derivatives listed on the German derivatives exchange Eurex, the announcement said.
Kraken and Deutsche Börse will also work to integrate xStocks, tokenized stocks issued by Backed Finance, which Kraken plans to acquire by the end of 2025. Clearstream-held securities are also expected to be distributed in a tokenized form to Kraken’s client base, the announcement said.
“Our partnership with Deutsche Börse Group demonstrates what happens when two infrastructures designed for scale and trust intersect,” Kraken co-CEO Arjun Sethi said, adding:
“By linking traditional and digital markets across a wide range of asset classes, we’re building a holistic foundation for the next generation of financial innovation: defined by efficiency, openness, and client access.”
Deutsche Börse’s CEO Leithner highlighted the company’s “ongoing commitment to shaping the future of financial markets,” noting that its partnership with Kraken combines trust and resilience of our regulated infrastructure with the innovation of the digital asset ecosystem.
XRP (XRP) price is up 12% since plunging below the $2 mark on Nov. 21, reclaiming some key support levels. Surging network activity and persistent institutional demand, coupled with reduced supply on exchanges, may lead to a sustained price recovery.
Key takeaways:
A surge in XRP ledger velocity and whale activity signals elevated network activity and demand.
A decrease in XRP supply on exchanges indicates strong accumulation by holders.
XRP price bulls look to establish strong support at $2.15 for the next leg up.
XRP Ledger velocity hits 2025 highs
XRP ledger’s velocity rose has seen a sudden spike, rising to a yearly high of 0.0324 on Wednesday, per data from CryptoQuant.
Velocity is a metric used to determine the frequency of XRP’s circulation across the XRP Ledger over a given period.
High velocity indicates XRP is actively used in “economic activity and onchain transactions” rather than held, said CryptoQuant analyst CryptoOnchain in a Wednesday Quicktake analysis, adding:
“Such a surge typically signifies high liquidity and substantial involvement from traders or significant movements by whales.”
XRP/Ledger velocity. Source: CryptoQuant
This data confirms that the XRP Ledger is “experiencing one of its most active periods in 2025, with user engagement reaching a peak,” the analyst added.
Another chart from CryptoQuant showed consistently high values on the spot average order size metric for 30 consecutive days, indicating that whales remained increasingly active on the spot market during this period.
XRP Ledger spot average order size. Source: CryptoQuant
High velocity and increased whale activity simply translate to more users, reflecting adoption and interaction with the XRP token, positively impacting its price.
XRP balance on exchanges hits seven-year lows
There has been a sharp decrease in the XRP supply on exchanges over the last 30 days, as evidenced by data from Glassnode.
XRP balance on exchanges dropped by 930 million tokens to 2.7 billion on Wednesday from 2.63 billion on Nov. 1, levels last seen in September 2018.
XRP reserve on exchanges. Source: Glassnode
A reducing balance on exchanges suggests a lack of intention to sell by holders, reinforcing the upside potential for XRP.
The sharp decline coincided precisely with record exchange outflows, as the XRP net position change among exchanges fell by 1.4 million XRP, marking the largest spike in history, according to Glassnode data.
XRP: Exchange net position change.
Such outflows typically indicate strong accumulation by large holders, who move tokens to cold storage or invest in investment products, thereby reducing immediate sell-side pressure.
XRP sits on strong support above $2.15
XRP’s latest recovery saw it reclaim a key support level at $2.15, which is also supported by the 50-period simple moving average (SMA).
Reclaiming this trendline has previously been preceded by significant recoveries in XRP price, as shown in the chart below.
Glassnode’s UTXO realized price distribution (URPD), which reveals the prices at which the current supply was created, indicates that $2.15 is the most significant support for XRP, where investors acquired 3.6 billion tokens.
As Cointelegraph reported, several other factors, such as persistent spot ETF inflows and a bullish divergence in the RSI on the price charts, indicate that an XRP rally is looking increasingly likely.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
AAVE price prediction suggests imminent breakout to $195-$205 range within one week, supported by bullish MACD momentum and RSI recovery from oversold levels.
Aave (AAVE) is positioning for a significant short-term rally as technical indicators align to support a bullish AAVE price prediction. Trading at $193.51 with emerging momentum signals, the decentralized finance lending protocol’s token appears ready to challenge key resistance levels that could unlock substantial upside potential.
AAVE Price Prediction Summary
• AAVE short-term target (1 week): $195-$205 (+1% to +6%)
• Aave medium-term forecast (1 month): $185-$220 range with potential spike to $240
• Key level to break for bullish continuation: $200.61 (24-hour high resistance)
• Critical support if bearish: $177.56 (SMA 20 and Bollinger Band middle)
Recent Aave Price Predictions from Analysts
The latest AAVE price prediction consensus from leading cryptocurrency analysts shows remarkable alignment on near-term bullish sentiment. Investing.com issued a strong buy signal based on technical indicators, while Blockchain.News provided a specific Aave forecast targeting the $185-$195 range. CoinLore’s AI-driven model pinpointed an AAVE price target of $193.70, which has already been achieved.
This convergence of predictions suggests institutional confidence in AAVE’s technical setup. The fact that CoinLore’s prediction has been validated adds credibility to the broader $185-$195 forecast range, with our analysis extending this to $205 based on momentum acceleration patterns.
AAVE Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Bullish Breakout
The Aave technical analysis reveals a compelling bullish configuration developing across multiple timeframes. The MACD histogram’s positive reading of 4.1393 indicates strengthening bullish momentum, while the RSI at 52.55 sits in neutral territory with room for upward expansion before reaching overbought conditions.
AAVE’s position at 0.89 within the Bollinger Bands suggests the token is approaching upper resistance but hasn’t yet reached extreme overbought levels. The price trading above both the 7-day SMA ($185.36) and EMA 12 ($184.66) confirms short-term bullish sentiment, though resistance at the SMA 50 ($200.33) remains a critical hurdle.
Volume analysis shows $20.4 million in 24-hour trading, providing adequate liquidity for the anticipated move. The 14-day ATR of $14.59 indicates sufficient volatility to support rapid price movements, making a $10-15 move within days technically feasible.
Aave Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for AAVE
The primary AAVE price target sits at $200.61, representing the immediate resistance level that coincides with yesterday’s high. A decisive break above this level opens the path to $205-$210, where the token could encounter profit-taking from recent buyers.
For sustained bullish momentum, AAVE needs to reclaim the SMA 50 at $200.33 and maintain trading above this level. Success here could trigger algorithmic buying and push the token toward $220-$240, representing a 14-24% gain from current levels.
The stochastic indicators at %K: 86.72 and %D: 93.09 suggest short-term overbought conditions, but this often precedes final momentum surges in strong trends.
Bearish Risk for Aave
Failure to maintain support at the SMA 20 ($177.56) would invalidate the bullish AAVE price prediction and potentially trigger a decline toward the Bollinger Band lower boundary at $157.03. This represents a 19% downside risk from current levels.
The key bearish scenario involves a breakdown below $175, which could accelerate selling toward the strong support zone at $147.13. Such a move would require monitoring DeFi sector sentiment and broader market conditions for confirmation.
Should You Buy AAVE Now? Entry Strategy
The current technical setup suggests a strategic entry opportunity for those seeking exposure to AAVE. The optimal buy zone exists between $190-$193, allowing for a favorable risk-reward ratio targeting the $200-$205 resistance zone.
Conservative traders should wait for a confirmed breakout above $200.61 before entering, accepting a higher entry price in exchange for reduced risk. Aggressive traders can capitalize on the current momentum signals, but should implement strict stop-loss orders at $185 to limit downside exposure.
Position sizing should account for AAVE’s 14-day ATR of $14.59, suggesting 2-3% portfolio allocation for moderate risk tolerance. Higher allocations require careful monitoring given the token’s volatility profile.
AAVE Price Prediction Conclusion
The technical evidence strongly supports a bullish AAVE price prediction with high confidence for the $195-$205 target within seven days. The convergence of positive MACD momentum, neutral RSI positioning, and analyst consensus creates a compelling setup for upward movement.
Key indicators to monitor include the MACD histogram maintaining positive momentum and RSI remaining below 70 to avoid overbought conditions. The critical timeline for this Aave forecast spans the next 5-7 trading sessions, during which the token should either confirm the bullish breakout or face potential correction toward support levels.
Traders should watch for volume confirmation on any move above $200, as this would validate the prediction and potentially accelerate gains toward the upper targets. The overall assessment maintains high confidence in the near-term bullish scenario, with medium confidence in sustained momentum beyond $205.
Market maker Citadel Securities has recommended that the Securities and Exchange Commission tighten regulations on decentralized finance when it comes to tokenized stocks, causing backlash from crypto users.
Citadel Securities told the SEC in a letter on Tuesday that DeFi developers, smart-contract coders, and self-custody wallet providers should not be given “broad exemptive relief” for offering trading of tokenized US equities.
It argued that DeFi trading platforms likely fall under the definitions of an “exchange” or “broker-dealer” and should be regulated under securities laws if offering tokenized stocks.
“Granting broad exemptive relief to facilitate the trading of a tokenized share via DeFi protocols would create two separate regulatory regimes for the trading of the same security,” it argued. “This outcome would be the exact opposite of the “technology-neutral” approach taken by the Exchange Act.”
Citadel’s letter, made in response to the SEC looking for feedback on how it should approach regulating tokenized stocks, has drawn considerable backlash from the crypto community and organizations advocating for innovation in the blockchain space.
Crypto users, Blockchain Association hits out
“Whoever thought Citadel would be against innovation that removes predatory, rent-seeking intermediaries from the financial system?” asked lawyer and Blockchain Association board member Jake Chervinsky on Thursday.
“Oh, right, literally every single person in crypto,” he added.
Uniswap founder Hayden Adams added that it “makes sense the king of shady TradFi market makers doesn’t like open source, peer-to-peer tech that can lower the barrier to liquidity creation.”
Summer Mersinger, CEO of the crypto advocacy group the Blockchain Association, said that “regulating software developers as if they were financial intermediaries would undermine US competitiveness, drive innovation offshore, and do nothing to advance investor protection.”
“We urge the SEC to reject this overbroad and unworkable approach and instead focus regulatory attention on actual intermediaries who stand between users and their assets,” she added.
Citadel wrote to the SEC’s Crypto Task Force in July to argue that tokenized securities “must achieve success by delivering real innovation and efficiency to market participants, rather than through self-serving regulatory arbitrage.”
SIFMA also urges no DeFi carve-out
The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA), an industry trade group, issued a similar statement on Wednesday, supporting innovation but insisting that tokenized securities must be subject to the same fundamental TradFi investor protections.
It argued that recent disruptions in crypto markets, including the October flash crash, were “timely reminders of why long-standing securities regulatory frameworks designed to preserve market quality and protect investors were originally created.”
The statement echoes the stance the trade group took in July, rejecting any SEC exemptive relief for blockchain and DeFi platforms that issue tokenized assets.
In November, the World Federation of Exchanges, a group representing major stock exchanges, urged the SEC to abandon its plan to grant an “innovation exemption” to crypto companies seeking to offer tokenized stocks.
Tether purchased 26 tons of gold in Q3 2025, a larger quarterly acquisition than any reporting central bank. Its total holdings reached 116 tons, placing it among the world’s top 30 gold holders.
Stablecoin issuers, sovereign wealth funds, corporations and tech firms are increasingly active in gold markets. This trend marks a structural shift in global demand once dominated by central banks.
Central banks added 220 tons of gold in Q3 2025, up 28% from Q2. Countries such as Kazakhstan, Brazil, Turkey and Guatemala made notable additions despite record prices.
While central banks buy gold for national monetary policy, Tether’s purchases come from profits and support diversification, resilience and collateralization for USDT.
The global financial system is witnessing a period when non-state entities are competing with central banks to build gold reserves. Tether, the issuer of Tether USDt (USDT) — the largest stablecoin in the world — is now one of the largest buyers of gold. In a single quarter, the company purchased more gold than most central banks did in the same period.
This article explores how an enterprise moved ahead of central banks in purchasing gold for its reserves and discusses independent attestations of the purchase. It also examines the rise of non-state gold buyers and what Tether’s gold buying does not indicate.
A private company outpacing central banks in buying gold
During the third quarter of 2025, Tether added 26 metric tons of gold to its holdings. According to analysts at Jefferies, this made Tether the single-largest gold buyer in that quarter, larger than the combined purchases of all reporting central banks.
By the end of September 2025, Tether’s total reported gold holdings stood at about 116 tons. If ranked alongside countries on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) official gold reserves list, this would place Tether among the top 30 holders worldwide, ahead of nations such as Greece, Qatar and Australia.
Per analysis from the investment bank Jefferies, Tether’s 26-ton purchase in Q3 2025 exceeded the official gold purchases of many mid-sized central banks during the same period. This reflects a wider trend.
Large private players, including stablecoin issuers, sovereign wealth funds and multinational corporations, are becoming significant participants in markets once dominated by governments. Research from the World Gold Council has also pointed to rising non-sovereign demand for gold.
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said on X, “While the world continues to get darker, Tether will continue to invest part of its profits into safe assets like Bitcoin, Gold and Land.” The company has emphasized that these gold purchases are made from profits, not from customer reserves that back USDT. It holds that diversification into real assets strengthens long-term resilience.
Independent attestations: The verified gold breakdowns
Tether publishes quarterly independent attestations prepared by major accounting firms. These reports provide insight into the company’s reserves:
As of Sept. 30, 2025, gold and precious metals represent about 7% of Tether’s total consolidated reserves.
This figure includes both gold-backed USDT and gold allocated to Tether Gold (XAUT), Tether’s tokenized gold product.
XAUT has a market value of roughly $1.6 billion, which corresponds to less than 12 tons of gold.
More than 100 tons of the reported gold is not tied to XAUT and forms part of Tether’s broader corporate reserves and investments.
Did you know? Tether’s USDT became the first stablecoin to surpass a $100-billion market cap, a notable development in digital finance. Its scale allows it to function as a key liquidity layer across crypto exchanges, decentralized finance platforms and global remittance routes.
How Tether compares with central banks
The WGC “Gold Demand Trends – Q3 2025” report shows that central banks globally added a net 220 tons of gold in Q3 2025. For context, this was 28% higher than the Q2 figure and 6% more than the five-year quarterly average.
In 2025, the price of gold rose about 50% year-to-date. Record-high prices likely constrained the scale of initial purchases. However, the renewed increase in central bank demand during the latest quarter indicates that these institutions are continuing to add gold strategically. They are doing so even in the face of significantly higher prices.
To help you compare Tether’s gold purchase in Q3 2025, here is information about similar activity by central banks:
The National Bank of Kazakhstan was the most significant purchaser in the quarter, boosting its gold reserves by 18 tons to a total of 324 tons.
The Central Bank of Brazil, making its first gold purchase since July 2021, reported a 15-ton rise in its gold reserves in September 2025, bringing its total gold holdings to 145 tons.
The Central Bank of Turkey maintained its continuous gold accumulation, with its official central bank and Treasury gold reserves growing by seven tons in Q3 to 641 tons.
The Bank of Guatemala increased its gold reserves by six tons during the quarter, a substantial 91% jump. The bank now holds a total of 13 tons of gold, accounting for 5% of its total reserves.
While making such comparisons, it is important to remember that central banks have different objectives when purchasing gold.
Central banks acquire gold as part of their national monetary strategy, whereas Tether holds gold as part of its corporate reserves. The acquired gold serves as collateral for its stablecoin and as an asset diversification tactic.
Did you know? USDT is not tied to one network. It is deployed on more than 15 blockchains, including Ethereum, Tron, Solana, Polygon and Avalanche.
The rise of non-state gold buyers
Before the rise of non-state gold buyers like Tether, demand for gold was driven mainly by central banks, the jewelry sector and commodity investors. In recent years, however, a growing share of gold purchases has come from private institutions, sovereign wealth funds, stablecoin issuers and corporate treasuries.
This shift is being driven by geopolitical uncertainty and fluctuations in currency values. Stablecoin issuers, in particular, have become significant participants. They are acquiring gold in quantities once associated with medium-sized national central banks.
Major technology companies and investment funds are also adding gold to their portfolios as part of broader strategies.
The rapid expansion of non-state gold buyers makes them a noticeable part of overall gold demand. They now form a steadily growing segment that is reshaping the pattern of global gold demand.
Did you know? Tether undergoes independent reserve attestations every quarter by a top global accounting firm. These reports verify its assets, liabilities, reserve composition and exposure.
What Tether’s gold buying does not indicate
To prevent any misunderstanding, it is important to be clear about what this gold accumulation does not mean:
It does not indicate liquidity problems or a risk of insolvency. Independent attestations confirm the relationship between assets and liabilities. A private entity buying gold does not, on its own, indicate financial difficulty unless such concerns are disclosed by the entity.
It does not signal upcoming gold price moves. Gold buying by a non-state actor does not imply any market forecast or directional view.
It is not a monetary decision in the way central banks operate. Private companies manage their reserves under different objectives and rules, and their gold holdings serve corporate and operational purposes rather than national monetary policy.
This helps place Tether’s gold buying in its proper context and supports a better understanding of what the move represents.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Binance has launched Binance Junior, a parent-controlled crypto app for users ages 6 to 17, in a move that sparked debate over introducing digital assets to minors.
The company announced Wednesday that Binance Junior is a standalone mobile app linked to a parent’s primary Binance account. The tool allows adults to deposit crypto, set spending and transfer limits and enable Earn products for their kids, depending on local regulations.
Binance framed the new product as a family-focused financial literacy tool. It mirrors traditional custodial accounts, where children can hold assets while parents remain the legal owners and control permissions.
The announcement sparked different reactions among community members, with some praising the move and others accusing the exchange of targeting children.
Binance Junior operates as a custodial sub-account, which means that the parent’s verified identity underpins the entire setup.
The application allows parents to deposit funds from their main Binance account, move assets via onchain transfers and choose whether to allow their kids to enable the Junior Flexible Simple Earn feature, an interest-bearing product from Binance.
Teens aged 13 and above can also access Binance Pay to send and receive crypto to and from other Junior accounts or their parents, with daily limits set by the adult.
Binance said on the Binance Junior website that some features may be disabled based on users’ jurisdictions, highlighting that different laws may limit access to the products.
Cointelegraph reached out to Binance for more information, but had not received a response by publication.
One X user criticized Binance for “targeting” kids, questioning whether the industry’s existing youth-focused marketing efforts were not already enough.
Another called the move “crazy and irresponsible,” while a separate commenter joked that kids will become “exit liquidity.”
Not everyone was in agreement. One community member said that introducing the next generation to crypto was “huge for real adoption,” praising the parental tools that came with the product.
Bitcoin (BTC) and US dollar–pegged stablecoins are emerging as a global alternative for moving value across borders without banks and card networks, as the Bitcoin network’s settlement volume begins to rival the world’s largest payment giants.
Bitcoin settled $6.9 trillion worth of payments over the past 90 days, which is “on par with or above Visa and Mastercard,” according to blockchain data platform Glassnode’s digital asset research report for the fourth quarter of 2025, published on Wednesday.
Over the same period, Visa processed $4.25 trillion in payment volume and Mastercard $2.63 trillion, for a combined $6.88 trillion, according to the report.
“Activity is migrating off-chain as flows move to #ETFs and brokers, but Bitcoin and #stablecoins continue to dominate on-chain settlement,” Glassnode said on X.
Bitcoin, Visa, Mastercard, transfer volume comparison. Source: Glassnode
Bitcoin’s economic settlement still small next to cards
Once internal transfers between addresses controlled by the same entity are stripped out, Bitcoin’s “economic” settlement is closer to $870 billion per quarter, or about $7.8 billion per day, Glassnode estimated. The firm said the numbers still show Bitcoin’s growing role as a “globally relevant settlement network, bridging both institutional and retail transaction flows.”
This figure pales in comparison to Visa’s $39.7 billion daily average transaction volume, or Mastercard’s $26.2 billion, the lion’s share of which is used for consumer retail spending and daily needs.
In contrast, Bitcoin’s settlement volume is mainly attributed to trading, remittances, and store-of-value investment, as global merchant adoption remains low.
Stablecoins move $225 billion a day, but mostly bots
Stablecoins are emerging as another global value transfer alternative, thanks to their fixed price, low transaction fees and 24/7 availability.
Stablecoins are now moving an average of $225 billion in value per day, according to the 30-day moving average of aggregate transfer volume for the top five stablecoins calculated by Glassnode.
Stablecoins, aggregate supply. Source: Glassnode
Still, about 70% of the $15.6 trillion stablecoin transfers during the third quarter of 2025 were linked to automated trading bots, not organic activity.
Organic non-bot activity only accounted for about 20% of the total, while the remaining 9% was attributed to internal smart contract transfers and internal exchange transactions, according to a research report from crypto exchange CEX.io.
The exchange’s researchers said it was “crucial” to distinguish between organic and bot activity for policymakers to evaluate the systemic risk and real-world adoption of stablecoin payments.
AAVE shows bullish momentum with 13.21% daily gains. Technical analysis suggests potential move to $224-$240 range as MACD histogram turns positive and price breaks above key resistance levels.
Aave (AAVE) has demonstrated significant strength today with a 13.21% surge, bringing the current price to $192.51. This AAVE price prediction analysis examines the technical indicators and analyst forecasts to determine whether this momentum can sustain and drive prices higher in the coming weeks.
AAVE Price Prediction Summary
• AAVE short-term target (1 week): $224 (+16.4% from current levels)
• Aave medium-term forecast (1 month): $240-$280 range
• Key level to break for bullish continuation: $199.90 immediate resistance
• Critical support if bearish: $147.13 major support zone
Recent Aave Price Predictions from Analysts
The latest Aave forecast from multiple sources shows remarkable consensus around the $220-$240 price range. CoinCodex projects an AAVE price target of $223.73 representing a 16.88% gain over the next five days, while Blockchain.News maintains a bullish outlook with targets ranging from $240-$310 for the medium term.
The convergence of these predictions around similar price levels provides additional confidence in the upward trajectory. CoinLore’s more conservative $194.14 target has already been surpassed by today’s price action, suggesting the bullish momentum may exceed even conservative estimates.
What’s particularly noteworthy is the consistency in analyst reasoning: oversold conditions, bullish MACD signals, and price trading above key moving averages are recurring themes across multiple AAVE price prediction reports.
AAVE Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Breakout
The current Aave technical analysis reveals several bullish indicators aligning for potential upward momentum. The MACD histogram has turned positive at 3.6524, indicating a shift from bearish to bullish momentum – a crucial reversal signal that preceded today’s 13% rally.
AAVE is currently trading above both the 7-day SMA ($183.51) and 20-day SMA ($176.32), establishing an upward trending structure. The price position within the Bollinger Bands at 0.9462 suggests AAVE is approaching the upper band resistance at $194.46, which has already been tested during today’s session with a high of $194.78.
The RSI reading of 52.47 remains in neutral territory, providing room for further upward movement without entering overbought conditions. This is particularly bullish as it suggests the rally has sustainability rather than being an exhausted move.
Volume confirmation comes from the substantial $31.6 million in 24-hour trading volume on Binance, indicating genuine interest and not just thin market movements.
Aave Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for AAVE
In the optimistic scenario, AAVE breaks above the immediate resistance at $199.90 and targets the analyst consensus range of $224-$240. This represents the primary AAVE price target for the next 1-2 weeks.
The bullish case is supported by:
– MACD histogram turning positive for the first time in recent sessions
– Price reclaiming both short-term moving averages
– Oversold bounce potential from recent lows near $147
If momentum accelerates, the medium-term target of $240-$280 becomes achievable, especially if broader DeFi sector sentiment improves.
Bearish Risk for Aave
The bearish scenario would see AAVE fail to hold above current levels and retest the critical support at $147.13. A break below this level could lead to further downside toward the 52-week low of $125.30.
Based on current technical levels, the buy or sell AAVE decision depends on risk tolerance and entry timing. For aggressive traders, the current level around $192 offers a reasonable entry with tight stops below $185 (the pivot point).
Conservative investors might wait for a pullback to the $185-$188 range to enter with better risk-reward ratios. This would provide support from the 20-day SMA and reduce downside exposure.
Position sizing should account for AAVE’s high volatility, with the daily ATR of $14.75 indicating significant price swings are normal.
AAVE Price Prediction Conclusion
This AAVE price prediction maintains a bullish outlook with medium confidence for the next 7-14 days. The technical setup supports a move toward $224-$240, aligning with recent analyst forecasts. The positive MACD histogram and price action above key moving averages provide the foundation for continued upward momentum.
Confidence Level: Medium (65-70%)
Key indicators to monitor:
– Ability to break and hold above $199.90 resistance
– MACD histogram maintaining positive readings
– RSI remaining below overbought levels (>70)
The Aave forecast timeline suggests this move could materialize within the next 1-2 weeks, with initial confirmation needed above $199.90 to validate the bullish thesis. Failure to break this resistance could result in consolidation around current levels before the next directional move.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose on Wednesday, gaining 7.5% over the last 24 hours to trade above $93,000, as analysts expected new highs.
This came amid record capital inflows, rising realized cap and decreasing volatility, which suggested a changing market structure, according to a new joint report from Glassnode and Fanara Digital.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin has attracted a record $732 billion in new capital since the 2022 cycle low.
Breaking the resistance at $93,000 is crucial for sustaining the recovery.
Bitcoin’s recent sell-off saw it draw down as much as 36% from its all-time high of $126,000 reached on Oct. 6, sparking fears of a crypto winter.
Still, new research by Glassnode and Fanara Digital found that Bitcoin has attracted more than $732 billion in net new capital since the 2022 cycle low.
“The 2022–2025 cycle alone has attracted more capital than all previous cycles combined,” the report said, pushing the realized cap to about $1.1 trillion, while the spot price rose by over 690% to $126,000 at the peak, from $16,000.
This reflects the “profound impact of institutional adoption and the emergence of regulated investment vehicles, such as spot ETFs,” the report said, adding:
“The magnitude of capital inflows throughout the current cycle underscores a structural transformation in Bitcoin’s market depth and investor base.”
Bitcoin: Realized cap since cycle low. Source: Glassnode
Bitcoin’s realized cap is a measure of the actual capital invested in all BTC across the network and is usually the first metric to contract in bear markets. The chart above suggests that this is not the case.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s long-term volatility has nearly halved, falling to 43% from 84.4% at the peak of the 2021 bull run, underscoring a sustained dampening of systemic volatility.
This decline reflects “Bitcoin’s growing market depth and institutional participation” through ETFs and treasury companies, the report noted, adding:
“This compression in volatility highlights Bitcoin’s transition toward a more institutionally anchored asset.”
Typically, bear markets begin with rising volatility and diminishing liquidity, not when volatility is in its long-term structural decline.
The report also shows that demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs has been “exceptional” since their launch in January 2024. These investment products now hold about 1.36 million BTC worth $168 billion in assets under management, which is roughly 6.9% of the circulating supply.
“This underscores the growing integration of Bitcoin within institutional portfolios and highlights the pivotal role ETFs now play in shaping market structure.”
“BTC faced a strong rejection at $93K last week, but as price attempts to break through this level again today, we’re seeing large short-liquidation clusters forming,” Glassnode said in an X post on Wednesday, adding:
“Short liquidations can act as fuel for upside, as forced buyers amplify momentum.”
Bitcoin liquidation heatmap. Source: Glassnode
Analyst Daan Crypto Trades eyed the “local horizontal resistance” above $93,000, likewise suggesting that flipping this area into a new support zone was key to propelling the BTC/USD pair to $98,000.
The BTC price has made a “higher high and a higher low, so technically, the market structure is back to bullish on this time frame,” the analyst said, adding:
“$97K-$98K is still an interesting spot in terms of liquidity. That would be in play if this current area breaks.”
As Cointelegraph reported, more analysts are optimistic about Bitcoin’s recovery, with the Bollinger BandWidth indicator offering hope of a 2023-style BTC price surge into the year-end.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Strategy is the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, with roughly 650,000 BTC on its balance sheet.
The company’s model hinges on raising capital and converting it into BTC while keeping its market-cap-to-Bitcoin value (mNAV) above 1.
CEO Phong Le has described any Bitcoin sale as a “last resort” option that would be considered only if mNAV drops below 1 and access to new capital meaningfully deteriorates.
Even if Strategy chooses to sell a portion of its holdings, Bitcoin trades in a market with tens of billions in daily volume, and any sale would likely be targeted rather than a full exit.
Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, has spent the past five years turning itself into what it calls “the world’s first and largest Bitcoin Treasury Company.”
As of early December 2025, it held almost 650,000 Bitcoin (BTC), which is more than 3% of the 21 million supply and by far the largest stack owned by a public company.
For many traditional investors, Strategy’s stock became a kind of leveraged proxy for Bitcoin. Instead of buying BTC directly, they chose the stock because the company raises capital and converts it into Bitcoin.
The current debate comes from CEO Phong Le’s recent comments that a Bitcoin sale is possible under very specific conditions. Headlines often focus on the word “sell,” but the company presents this as risk management for extreme stress, not a shift in its long-term Bitcoin thesis.
This article looks at how the plan works and what could trigger sales, helping readers interpret future news without panic or fear of missing out (FOMO). This guide is purely informational and not investment advice.
Did you know? Recent estimates suggest that institutions now hold nearly 20% of all mined Bitcoin.
Raises capital in traditional markets through common-stock at-the-market programs, multiple series of perpetual preferred stock, such as STRK and STRF, and occasional convertible debt.
Uses much of that capital to buy more Bitcoin, which it treats as its primary treasury reserve asset.
Tracks a set of metrics to judge whether this remains sustainable and accretive for shareholders.
Two of those metrics matter here:
Bitcoin per share (BPS): How much BTC effectively sits behind each fully diluted share. Strategy publishes this as a key performance indicator.
Market-cap-to-net-asset-value (nNAV): The ratio between Strategy’s total market value and the market value of its Bitcoin holdings. If mNAV is above 1, the stock trades at a premium to its BTC.
When the company trades at a healthy premium, it can raise new equity or preferred stock with less dilution and keep growing its Bitcoin stack. That base case — where Strategy raises at a premium, buys more BTC and grows BPS — is still the model that management says it is pursuing.
The “last resort” sale trigger
The new element is a clearly stated kill switch for that model.
In recent interviews, Le explained that Strategy would consider selling some Bitcoin only if two conditions are met at the same time:
mNAV falls below 1, which means the company’s market cap drops to or below the value of the Bitcoin it holds.
Access to fresh capital dries up — e.g., if investors are no longer willing to buy its equity or preferred stock at viable terms.
He described selling BTC in that scenario as a “last resort” toolkit option to meet obligations such as preferred dividends, not as a standing plan to sell the treasury.
Put simply:
If the stock trades at or below the value of the BTC and the company cannot refinance itself, then selling a slice of BTC becomes the least bad way to protect the overall structure.
What could realistically push Strategy toward that line
Several moving parts would have to line up before the “last resort” switch is even considered.
Macro and Bitcoin price
Bitcoin has already pulled back sharply from its October all-time high near $126,000 to the mid-$80,000s, a drop of roughly 30%. Deeper or more prolonged drawdowns compress the value of Strategy’s BTC stack and tend to pressure its stock at the same time.
Equity performance and mNAV
Strategy’s market cap premium to its Bitcoin has already narrowed after a 30%-60% slide in the stock from earlier highs. In mid-November, the company briefly traded around or even below the spot value of its holdings, which suggested mNAV near 1.
Funding conditions
The business rests on being able to issue new common and perpetual preferred shares through existing shelf registrations and at-the-market (ATM) programs. If those offerings slowed sharply or if investors demanded much higher yields, that would signal stress on the funding side.
Internal obligations
Strategy has sizeable annual commitments in the form of preferred dividends and debt service. Analysts put preferred dividend obligations in the hundreds of millions of dollars per year.
Management still describes itself as a long-term Bitcoin accumulator, and the scenarios above describe a severe stress environment.
Did you know? Onchain forensics suggest that 3 million-4 million BTC is likely lost forever in dead wallets, which means a significant portion of the supply will never return to the market.
What a Strategy sale would and would not mean for Bitcoin
Given that Strategy holds 650,000 BTC, any shift from “never sell” to “might sell under stress” naturally catches traders’ attention.
Context is important, though:
Market size: Daily spot and derivatives volume in Bitcoin regularly runs into tens of billions of dollars. At the same time, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen single-day inflows and outflows measured in billions. A controlled sale of a fraction of Strategy’s holdings, even if meaningful, would enter a very large and liquid market.
Likely scale and pace: Based on Le’s own comments, any sale in a stress scenario would be targeted and partial, aimed at meeting obligations or maintaining the capital structure rather than exiting Bitcoin.
Pricing in advance: Markets often start incorporating these possibilities as soon as they are disclosed. The recent pullback in both BTC and Strategy’s stock, along with debate over mNAV, is an example of that process.
It is important to note that a conditional last resort sale framework is not the same thing as an announcement that large BTC sales are imminent.
Did you know? In Q3 2025, average daily crypto spot trading volume was about $155 billion, and another $14 billion in notional crypto derivatives traded daily on CME alone.
How to follow Strategy’s next moves
For readers who want to track this story without reacting to every headline or meme, several observable indicators can help readers understand the situation more clearly:
Start with primary sources.
US Securities and Exchange Commission filings, such as 8 Ks and prospectus supplements, show new capital raises and updated Bitcoin holdings.
Strategy’s press releases and its “Bitcoin Purchases” page summarize recent buys and total holdings.
Watch the core metrics.
US Securities and Exchange Commission filings, such as 8 Ks and prospectus supplements, show new capital raises and updated Bitcoin holdings.
Strategy’s press releases and its “Bitcoin Purchases” page summarize recent buys and total holdings.
Social media activity often reflects sentiment rather than data. “Green dot” posts, laser eyes memes and doomsday threads can be useful for reading mood, but it is worth cross-checking any claim about forced selling or insolvency against filings and numbers.
N.B. Financial situations, time horizons and risk tolerance vary by individual. This information is general in nature and should not be interpreted as advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset. Readers should consider consulting a qualified financial professional for guidance that fits their circumstances.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
