Aave founder and CEO Stani Kulechov has outlined a broader strategic vision for the protocol following a contentious governance vote that rejected a proposal to transfer control of Aave’s brand assets and intellectual property to its decentralized autonomous organization (DAO).
The failed vote has prompted renewed debate within the Aave community over the protocol’s long-term direction and governance structure, an issue Kulechov addressed directly.
In a post published Friday on the Aave governance forum, Kulechov argued that the protocol must evolve beyond its core decentralized finance (DeFi) lending business to pursue opportunities in real-world assets (RWAs), institutional lending and consumer-facing financial products.
He described the community as being “at a crossroads,” noting that DeFi’s future growth trajectory remains uncertain without broader market expansion.
Significantly, Kulechov said Aave Labs plans to distribute non-protocol revenue to Aave (AAVE) tokenholders, a move that could expand how the token captures value beyond governance participation. He added that Aave Labs plans to introduce a new governance proposal to address intellectual property ownership and brand-related rights, following community pushback against the earlier initiative.
Kulechov’s post appears aimed at refocusing the community away from short-term governance disputes and toward a more cohesive long-term strategy. He highlighted RWAs in particular, describing the sector as a potential $500 trillion opportunity based on the estimated value of global financial assets.
Aave is one of the largest DeFi protocols, with its total value locked exceeding $45 billion in October, according to industry data.
As Cointelegraph reported, Aave’s recent governance dispute centers on who should control and benefit from fees generated by cryptocurrency swaps within the ecosystem.
Some of those swaps are routed through CoW Swap, a decentralized trading service that allows users to exchange tokens directly from Aave. The disagreement arose over whether revenue tied to these swaps should belong to the Aave DAO, which represents tokenholders, or remain under the control of developers at Aave Labs.
The results of Aave’s governance vote on Monday. Source: Cointelegraph
Some members of the Aave community also pointed to Kulechov’s recent purchase of roughly $15 million worth of AAVE tokens as an attempt to influence the governance vote, a claim he strongly denied, saying the purchase reflected his personal “conviction” in the protocol rather than an effort to sway the outcome.
Bitcoin is bearish in the short term and could plunge to $50,000 if the $74,508 level is breached.
The short-term trend is likely to turn bullish above $100,000, opening the doors for a rally to $126,199.
Bitcoin (BTC) began 2025 near $93,000, before plunging to $74,500 in April and then rallying to $126,199 in October before falling to about $87,000 on Dec. 31.
While it is difficult to predict the future with certainty, charts provide insight into potential outcomes. Traders may keep a close watch on the support and resistance levels highlighted in the article and use them as an aid for formulating trading strategies. Let’s analyze the monthly and weekly charts to gain a long-term view of BTC.
Bitcoin price prediction
Bitcoin has been forming a series of higher highs and higher lows on the monthly charts, indicating an uptrend.
During the previous two corrections, the Bitcoin price found support at the 20-month exponential moving average (EMA) ($88,049), making it a crucial support to watch out for.
If the price closes below the 20-month EMA and the April low of $74,508, the sequence of higher lows will be broken. Such a move suggests that demand is drying up, and buyers are waiting for lower levels to enter. That may put the brakes on the uptrend, pulling the price down toward $50,000.
Instead, if the price turns up from the 20-week EMA and rises above the psychological $100,000 level, it suggests that the uptrend remains intact. The bulls will then attempt to drive the price to the all-time high of $126,199, where the bears are expected to mount a strong defense. If the buyers prevail, the BTC/USDT pair could start the next leg of the uptrend to $141,188 and then to $178,621.
Zooming in on BTC’s weekly charts, the near-term looks bearish. The moving averages are on the verge of completing a bearish crossover for the first time since January 2022. The previous bearish crossover resulted in an extended downtrend.
The pair is likely to drop to the $74,508 level, where the buyers are expected to mount a strong defense. However, when the sentiment is negative, rallies are viewed as a selling opportunity. In April 2022, bears halted the rally at the moving averages, and the downtrend resumed.
If history repeats and the price turns down from the moving averages, the pair may again drop to the $74,508 level. The repeated retest of a support level tends to weaken it. A break and close below the $74,508 level may then form a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, opening the gates for a decline to $50,000. Such a move could delay the resumption of the uptrend, as markets tend to consolidate after a sharp decline, as seen from June 2022 to February 2023.
The negative view will be invalidated if the price turns up and breaks above the moving averages. That suggests the $74,508 level is acting as a floor. The pair may then dash toward the $126,199 resistance.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
AAVE price prediction targets $185-195 recovery over next month as oversold RSI and descending wedge pattern suggest bullish reversal from current $152.82 level.
After analyzing current market conditions and technical indicators, our AAVE price prediction points toward a potential recovery in the coming weeks, despite recent bearish momentum. Trading at $152.82 with a 5.02% daily gain, AAVE appears positioned for a technical bounce from oversold conditions.
AAVE Price Prediction Summary
• AAVE short-term target (1 week): $165-170 (+8-11%)
• Aave medium-term forecast (1 month): $185-195 range (+21-28%)
• Key level to break for bullish continuation: $162.96 (SMA 20)
• Critical support if bearish: $146.40 (analyst consensus)
Recent Aave Price Predictions from Analysts
Current analyst sentiment shows a mixed but cautiously optimistic outlook for our AAVE price prediction. CoinCodex maintains a conservative short-term target of $177.48, citing bearish market sentiment and resistance at $150.26-154.52. However, Blockchain.News presents a more bullish Aave forecast with targets of $185-195, supported by oversold RSI conditions and a potential descending wedge breakout pattern.
The analyst consensus reveals an interesting dynamic: while immediate sentiment remains cautious, medium-term predictions align around the $180-200 range. This suggests that despite current technical challenges, fundamental support for AAVE remains intact at these levels.
AAVE Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Reversal
Our Aave technical analysis reveals several compelling factors supporting a recovery scenario. The RSI at 40.17 sits in neutral territory but has moved up from oversold levels, suggesting selling pressure may be exhausting. The MACD histogram at -0.3727 shows bearish momentum, but the relatively small divergence between MACD (-9.8345) and signal line (-9.4618) indicates weakening downward pressure.
The Bollinger Bands positioning tells a crucial story for our AAVE price target. Currently trading at the 0.34 position within the bands, AAVE sits closer to the lower band ($131.41) than the middle band ($162.96), historically a favorable setup for mean reversion trades. The daily ATR of $10.06 suggests normal volatility levels, providing clear risk parameters for position management.
Volume analysis from Binance shows $11.4 million in 24-hour trading, indicating adequate liquidity for the anticipated move. The price action above the immediate support at $143.63 provides a solid foundation for the recovery thesis.
Aave Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for AAVE
The primary AAVE price target centers on the $185-195 range, representing a 21-28% upside from current levels. This target aligns with the upper portion of the analyst consensus and corresponds to technical resistance levels identified in the data.
For this bullish scenario to unfold, AAVE must first reclaim the SMA 20 at $162.96, which would signal the beginning of trend reversal. A sustained break above this level would likely trigger momentum toward the immediate resistance at $198.12, with the ultimate target near $200 representing a complete retracement of recent losses.
The 52-week high at $357.78 remains distant, but the current 57.29% discount from those levels provides substantial upside potential for longer-term holders willing to weather near-term volatility.
Bearish Risk for Aave
Despite the optimistic Aave forecast, significant downside risks remain. The critical support level at $146.40, identified by analyst consensus, represents the line in the sand for bulls. A break below this level would likely trigger accelerated selling toward the strong support at $143.63.
In a bearish scenario, AAVE could retest the 52-week low at $146.02, representing a potential 5-6% downside from current levels. The declining moving averages (SMA 50 at $174.44 and SMA 200 at $250.33) continue to exert downward pressure on longer-term trends.
Should You Buy AAVE Now? Entry Strategy
Based on our technical analysis, the current level presents a reasonable entry point for those seeking to buy or sell AAVE. The optimal entry strategy involves scaling into positions between $150-155, with the first tranche deployable at current levels around $152.82.
Risk management remains crucial given the mixed signals. A stop-loss at $145.50, just below the critical $146.40 support level, provides a clear exit strategy with limited downside exposure. For aggressive traders, a tighter stop at $149.50 could limit losses while maintaining upside participation.
Position sizing should reflect the medium confidence level in this prediction. Conservative allocation of 1-2% of portfolio value allows for meaningful participation while limiting overall risk exposure.
AAVE Price Prediction Conclusion
Our AAVE price prediction anticipates a recovery to the $185-195 range within 30 days, representing a medium-confidence forecast based on current technical conditions. The combination of oversold RSI, potential descending wedge breakout, and analyst consensus around similar targets supports this outlook.
Key indicators to monitor include RSI movement above 50, MACD histogram turning positive, and most critically, a sustained break above the SMA 20 at $162.96. Failure to hold support at $146.40 would invalidate this bullish thesis and likely trigger further downside.
The timeline for this Aave forecast spans the next 20-30 days, providing sufficient time for technical patterns to develop while maintaining near-term relevance for trading decisions. Market participants should prepare for continued volatility as AAVE works through this critical technical juncture.
• SHIB short-term target (1 week): $0.0000078 (+12% from current levels)
• Shiba Inu medium-term forecast (1 month): $0.0000085-$0.00001019 range • Key level to break for bullish continuation: $0.0000085
• Critical support if bearish: $0.000007
Recent Shiba Inu Price Predictions from Analysts
The latest SHIB price prediction consensus among major analysts reveals a cautiously optimistic outlook for the meme token. Blockchain.News leads with the most conservative near-term target of $0.0000085 by end of January 2026, citing golden cross patterns and bullish MACD indicators as primary drivers.
Shiba Inu forecast models show significant variation in longer-term projections. MEXC News targets $0.00001019 by December 2025, while CoinCodex and DigitalCoinPrice converge around $0.000012-$0.0000124 for end-2026 predictions. The most aggressive forecast comes from CoinLore, projecting $0.0000935 in 2026 – representing a potential 1,150% increase that carries low confidence given its extreme deviation from consensus.
The SHIB price target convergence around $0.0000085 for January suggests this level represents meaningful technical resistance that multiple analysts recognize as achievable in the near term.
SHIB Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Cautious Recovery
Current Shiba Inu technical analysis reveals a mixed but improving picture. The RSI reading of 51.88 positions SHIB in neutral territory, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions – creating room for movement in either direction.
The MACD histogram showing 0.0000 with noted bullish momentum suggests the recent 9.18% daily gain may have legs for continuation. The Stochastic indicators paint a more aggressive picture, with %K at 93.81 indicating potential overbought conditions in the short term, though the %D at 60.24 suggests the momentum shift is still developing.
SHIB’s position at 0.79 within the Bollinger Bands indicates the token is trading closer to the upper band, suggesting recent buying pressure. The 24-hour volume of $15.4 million on Binance provides adequate liquidity for the predicted moves, though this volume needs to increase to confirm any sustained rally toward analyst targets.
The distance of -54.72% from the 52-week high indicates substantial room for recovery if broader market conditions remain supportive.
Shiba Inu Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for SHIB
The primary SHIB price prediction for the bullish scenario targets $0.0000085 within the next 3-4 weeks. This represents the first major resistance level identified by multiple analysts and aligns with technical patterns suggesting a golden cross formation.
For this target to materialize, SHIB needs to maintain momentum above current levels and break through immediate resistance. The bullish MACD histogram supports this scenario, and a sustained break above $0.0000085 could open the path toward the $0.00001019 level predicted by MEXC News.
Extended bullish targets for Q1 2026 range from $0.000010 to $0.000012, contingent on broader crypto market recovery and potential catalysts within the Shiba Inu ecosystem.
Bearish Risk for Shiba Inu
The bearish scenario for our SHIB price prediction centers on a failure to hold current support levels. Critical support sits at $0.000007, representing a key psychological level that has historically provided buying interest.
A break below this level could trigger further selling toward $0.0000068, representing approximately 15% downside risk from current levels. The elevated Stochastic %K reading of 93.81 warns of potential short-term correction pressure that could test these support zones.
Risk factors include broader cryptocurrency market weakness, regulatory concerns affecting meme tokens, or failure to sustain the current bullish MACD momentum.
Should You Buy SHIB Now? Entry Strategy
Based on current Shiba Inu technical analysis, the buy or sell SHIB decision depends on risk tolerance and time horizon. For aggressive traders, current levels offer entry opportunity targeting the $0.0000085 resistance.
Conservative buyers should wait for a pullback toward $0.0000072-$0.0000075 range, providing better risk-reward ratios. This approach allows for tighter stop-losses below the critical $0.000007 support level.
Position sizing should reflect the high volatility nature of meme tokens. Risk management requires stop-loss placement below $0.000007 for any positions taken above current levels. Target profit-taking at $0.0000085 offers approximately 22% upside potential with clearly defined risk parameters.
SHIB Price Prediction Conclusion
Our Shiba Inu forecast anticipates a measured recovery toward $0.0000085 within the January timeframe, representing a medium-confidence prediction supported by improving technical indicators and analyst consensus.
The bullish MACD momentum and neutral RSI provide the technical foundation for this move, while the multiple analyst targets around this level offer fundamental validation. However, the elevated Stochastic readings suggest potential near-term volatility that could create better entry opportunities.
Key indicators to monitor include MACD signal line crossovers, RSI breaking above 60 for sustained bullish momentum, and volume confirmation above $20 million daily averages. Invalidation of this SHIB price prediction occurs on a decisive break below $0.000007 support, which would shift the bias toward the $0.0000068 bearish target.
Timeline for target achievement extends through January 2026, with potential extension into February if broader market conditions remain supportive.
Worldcoin shows bullish momentum with MACD turning positive. WLD price prediction targets $0.58-$0.62 range within 3-4 weeks based on technical breakout patterns.
WLD Price Prediction Summary
• WLD short-term target (1 week): $0.56 (+5.7%)
• Worldcoin medium-term forecast (1 month): $0.58-$0.62 range
• Key level to break for bullish continuation: $0.59 (immediate resistance)
• Critical support if bearish: $0.47 (strong support level)
Recent Worldcoin Price Predictions from Analysts
The latest WLD price prediction data from major exchanges shows remarkable consensus around modest upside potential. MEXC’s conservative forecast targets $0.4962, while Bitget projects $0.5009 and Coinbase sets a longer-term Worldcoin forecast at $0.52. These predictions, however, appear overly cautious given current technical momentum.
The analyst consensus suggests 5% annual growth assumptions, which may underestimate WLD’s near-term potential. Current price action at $0.53 has already exceeded Coinbase’s long-term target, indicating these predictions may need upward revision. The convergence of these forecasts around $0.50 creates a psychological support floor for any potential pullbacks.
WLD Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Breakout
Worldcoin technical analysis reveals a compelling setup for continued upside. The MACD histogram at 0.0086 signals the first bullish momentum shift in recent sessions, while the RSI at 49.46 provides ample room for further gains without reaching overbought conditions.
The Bollinger Bands positioning is particularly noteworthy, with WLD trading at 0.79 relative position between the bands. This suggests strong momentum within the upper half of the trading range, with the upper band at $0.55 serving as the next immediate target. The 7-day and 12-day moving averages have converged at $0.51, creating a strong support base below current levels.
Volume confirmation at $16.2 million on Binance spot indicates genuine buying interest supporting the 7.75% daily gain. The Stochastic indicators show %K at 86.96, suggesting short-term overbought conditions that may lead to brief consolidation before the next leg higher.
Worldcoin Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for WLD
The primary WLD price target sits at $0.59, representing the immediate resistance level that needs to break for trend continuation. A clean break above this level opens the door to $0.62-$0.65, where the 50-day moving average at $0.58 will provide initial resistance before clearing toward stronger resistance at $0.75.
Technical confluence supports this bullish Worldcoin forecast. The positive MACD crossover, combined with price trading above the 20-day EMA at $0.53, establishes a foundation for higher prices. The daily ATR of $0.03 suggests normal volatility, allowing for measured upward movement without excessive whipsaws.
Bearish Risk for Worldcoin
Downside risks emerge if WLD fails to hold the $0.52 pivot point. A break below this level would target the immediate support at $0.47, coinciding with the strong support zone and near the 52-week low of $0.48. This represents a 11.3% downside risk from current levels.
The bearish scenario would be confirmed by MACD rolling over into negative territory and RSI breaking below 45. Volume expansion on any downward moves would increase the probability of testing the lower Bollinger Band at $0.46.
Should You Buy WLD Now? Entry Strategy
Current levels present a reasonable buy or sell WLD decision point for traders with proper risk management. The optimal entry strategy involves scaling into positions between $0.52-$0.53, using the pivot point and current EMA 26 as support reference.
Stop-loss placement should be positioned at $0.49, approximately 7.5% below current levels and below the key $0.50 psychological support. This provides adequate protection while allowing normal price fluctuations. Position sizing should remain moderate given the 72% distance from 52-week highs, indicating WLD remains in a longer-term recovery phase.
For conservative investors, waiting for a successful break above $0.59 immediate resistance would provide confirmation of the bullish thesis before entering positions.
WLD Price Prediction Conclusion
The WLD price prediction for the next 3-4 weeks targets the $0.58-$0.62 range with medium-high confidence. Technical momentum is building with MACD turning positive and price action breaking above key moving averages. The Worldcoin forecast is supported by volume confirmation and healthy RSI positioning.
Key indicators to monitor include the MACD maintaining positive territory, successful break above $0.59 resistance, and sustained trading above the $0.52 pivot point. Failure to hold $0.50 would invalidate the bullish prediction and suggest deeper correction toward $0.47 support.
The timeline for this prediction centers on January 2026, with initial targets potentially reached within 7-10 trading days if momentum sustains. Traders should monitor daily volume for confirmation and be prepared to adjust position sizing based on volatility expansion measured by the ATR indicator.
Onchain analytics firm Nansen ranked Solana, BNB Chain, Base, Tron and NEAR Protocol as the busiest blockchains in 2025.
Solana led the pack with 23.01 billion transactions, while BNB Chain followed with 3.89 billion. Coinbase’s Ethereum layer-2 Base handled 3.29 billion for third, as Tron trailed with 3.22 billion and NEAR came in fifth with 1.89 billion.
Even as 2025 was marked by institutional adoption, retail-focused use cases continued to dominate transaction volumes, particularly on blockchains with low fees and high throughput.
Top five blockchains by activity in 2025. Source: Nansen
Solana’s DEX boom and memecoin craze
Solana’s dominance came on the back of a trading boom that pushed it to the top of decentralized exchange (DEX) rankings in early 2025.
CoinGecko reported that Solana DEX trading dominated 40% of the industry’s market share by recording $293.7 billion in the first quarter of 2025. It was driven in part by a memecoin frenzy around celebrity and political tokens like $TRUMP, a Solana-based token launched on Jan. 18 tied to US President Donald Trump.
DefiLlama data showed that Solana remained among the top chains by DEX volume throughout the year, with monthly volumes around or above the $100 billion mark.
Base ranked third by 2025 transaction count as it leveraged direct distribution from Coinbase’s user base. A 2026 outlook by Messari researcher AJC said that Base’s protocol revenue grew by about 30 times in 2025, capturing 62% of total L2 revenue. The same research noted that Base’s ecosystem now spans DEXs, AI‑linked apps and prediction platforms.
Tron’s 3.22 billion transactions reflected its role as a backbone for the stablecoin economy. In June 2025, TRON DAO said that more than half of circulating USDt (USDT) is issued on its blockchain. Its stablecoin supply grew about 40% year‑to‑date with daily transfer volumes in the tens of billions of dollars.
NEAR Protocol rounded out the top five, with 1.89 billion transactions in 2025 according to Nansen’s ranking.
NEAR reported about 46 million users in May, placing it alongside Solana and Tron in activity metrics. Beyond numbers, a key part of NEAR’s 2025 story was its role in the privacy narrative via Zcash (ZEC), whose comeback was driven in part by the Electric Coin Company’s Zashi wallet integrating with NEAR’s Intents system. It allowed users to move in and out of ZEC’s shielded pool without going through centralized exchanges.
This integration helped push Zcash’s shielded supply to record levels and drove a spike in activity on NEAR Intents, including a day with over $17 million in Zcash-related volume.
XAU/USD was being held in check by $4,400 after becoming the winning major asset of 2025.
“Gold (+64%) was the best performing major asset in 2025 while Bitcoin (-6%) was the worst. Something we haven’t seen before in any calendar year (the inverse of 2013),” Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at wealth manager Creative Planning, noted.
This week, Cointelegraph included Bitcoin’s relationship with gold and silver in four key charts to watch next.
Analysis argued that BTC’s relative underperformance was not a sign of a new bear market, but the “calm before the storm,” based on historical patterns.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Solana appears poised to expand from its memecoin-focused, retail-dominant network this year, after posting record real-world asset tokenization activity in December.
Data from RWA.xyz shows the value of tokenized RWAs on Solana increased nearly 10% over the last month to a record-high $873.3 million, while the number of Solana RWA token holders rose over 18.4% to 126,236 over the same timeframe.
The majority of these RWAs back US Treasuries, such as the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund and the Ondo US Dollar Yield, which boast market caps of $255.4 million and $175.8 million, respectively.
New tokenized stocks like Tesla xStock and Nvidia xStock are also rising, at $48.3 million and $17.6 million, respectively, while institutional funds are also being tokenized on Solana.
Solana is poised to become the third blockchain to exceed $1 billion in tokenized RWAs, behind Ethereum at $12.3 billion and BNB Chain, which recently passed $2 billion.
SOL will set a new high in 2026 if one thing happens: Bitwise
If it passes, Bitwise expects crypto tokenization will take off, with Solana being one of the biggest winners from that upward trend: “We’re bullish on Ethereum and Solana. Really bullish. Primarily because we think stablecoins and tokenization are megatrends, and Ethereum and Solana are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries of that growth.”
SOL has some catching up to do on BTC, ETH
Solana (SOL) enters 2026 at a significantly lower price than it began 2025, trading around $125 versus roughly $190 this time last year.
SOL is also over 57% off the $293.3 all-time high it set on Jan. 19, 2025, while Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) set their all-time highs more recently — October and August — and are currently trading much closer to those prices.
ETFs, institutional payments also spurring SOL momentum
Solana’s legitimacy in the institutional space strengthened in late October when the US Securities and Exchange Commission approved the first lot of now six spot Solana exchange-traded funds.
Those Solana products have combined for $765 million in inflows, Farside Investors data shows.
Also in October, international remittance giant Western Union chose Solana to build its stablecoin settlements platform on for its more than 150 million customers, spread across over 200 countries and territories. It is expected to roll out in the first half of 2026.
Solana’s onchain metrics look solid
Solana is leading all blockchains in app revenue, proving it can generate high income even when memecoin activity slows.
Over the past 30 days, it raked in over $110 million, far ahead of second-place Hyperliquid at $61.1 million and nearly double Ethereum’s $47.2 million, DeFiLlama data shows.
Blockchains by app revenue over the last 30 days. Source: DeFiLlama
Covered calls gained traction as cash-and-carry returns collapsed, but data shows they are not structurally suppressing Bitcoin’s price.
Stable put-to-call ratios and rising put demand suggest hedging and yield strategies coexist with bullish positioning.
As Bitcoin (BTC) price entered a downtrend in November, traders began forming theories about why institutional inflows and corporate accumulation failed to sustain price levels above $110,000.
One explanation frequently cited is the rising demand for Bitcoin options, particularly those linked to the BlackRock iShares spot Bitcoin (IBIT) exchange-traded fund.
IBIT options open interest. Source: OptionCharts.io
The aggregate Bitcoin options open interest climbed to $49 billion in December 2025 from $39 billion in December 2024, putting the covered call strategy under closer scrutiny.
Critics argue that by “renting out” their upside for a fee, large investors have unintentionally created a ceiling that prevents Bitcoin from entering its next parabolic phase. To understand this argument, it helps to view a covered call as a trade-off between price appreciation and steady income.
In a covered call strategy, an investor who already owns Bitcoin sells a call (buy) option to another party. This gives the buyer the right to purchase that Bitcoin at a fixed price, such as $100,000 by a specified date. In return, the seller receives an upfront cash payment, similar to earning interest on a bond.
This options strategy differs from fixed income products because the seller continues to hold a volatile asset, even though their potential upside is capped. If Bitcoin rallies to $120,000, the seller must sell at $100,000, effectively missing the additional gains.
Traders argue that this dynamic suppresses price action because professional dealers who purchase these options often sell Bitcoin in the spot market to hedge their exposure, creating a persistent “sell wall” around popular strike prices.
Options-based yield replaced the collapsed cash and carry trade
This shift toward options-based yield is a direct response to the collapse of the cash and carry trade, which involves selling BTC futures while holding an equivalent position in the spot market.
For much of late 2024, traders captured a steady 10% to 15% premium. By February 2025, however, that premium had fallen below 10%, and by November it struggled to remain above 5%.
In search of higher returns, funds rotated into covered calls, which offered more attractive annualized yields of 12% to 18%. This transition is evident in IBIT options, where open interest jumped to $40 billion from $12 billion in late 2024. Even so, the put-to-call ratio has stayed stable below 60%.
If widespread “suppressive” call selling were truly the dominant force, this ratio would likely have collapsed as the market became saturated with call sellers. Instead, the balance implies that for every yield-focused seller, there is still a buyer positioning for a breakout.
The put-to-call ratio suggests that while some participants are selling upside call options, a much larger group is purchasing put (sell) instruments as protection against a potential price decline.
The recent defensive stance is reflected in the skew metric. While IBIT put options traded at a 2% discount in late 2024, they now trade at a 5% premium. At the same time, implied volatility, the market’s measure of expected turbulence, declined to 45% or lower from May onward, down from 57% in late 2024.
Lower volatility reduces the premiums earned by sellers, meaning the incentive to deploy this so-called “suppressive” strategy has actually weakened, even as total open interest has increased.
Arguing that covered calls are holding prices down makes little sense when the sellers of those call options stand to benefit most if prices rise toward their target levels. Rather than acting as a constraint, the options market has become the primary venue where Bitcoin’s volatility is being monetized for yield.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as, legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
