BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) holders are back in profit after Bitcoin’s recovery above $90,000, an early sign that sentiment may be turning among one of the key investor groups driving the market this year.
The holders of the largest spot Bitcoin (BTC) fund, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), bounced back to a cumulative profit of $3.2 billion on Wednesday, according to blockchain data platform Arkham.
“BlackRock IBIT and ETHA holders went from being up almost a combined $40 billion at their PnL peak on 7th October, down to $630 million 4 days ago,” wrote Arkham in a Wednesday X post. “This means the average of all BlackRock ETF buys is at just about break-even.”
With ETF holders no longer under pressure, Bitcoin ETFs may continue to slow their selling rate, which has seen a significant improvement since the $903 million in outflows recorded on Nov. 20.
BlackRock IBIT Bitcoin ETF holders, unrealized profit and loss ratio, three-month chart. Source: Arkham
Bitcoin ETFs recorded two consecutive days of inflows for the first time in two weeks, with a modest $21 million in cumulative inflows on Wednesday, according to Farside Investors.
The development is a welcome sign for Bitcoin, as BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF was the only fund to realize net positive inflows for 2025, according to K33 Research.
The inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs were the primary driver of Bitcoin’s momentum in 2025, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, told Cointelegraph recently.
BlackRock is the world’s largest asset management firm, with $13.5 trillion in assets under management as of the third quarter of 2025.
Bitcoin ETF investors no longer under pressure amid growing interest-rate cut expectations
The broader spot Bitcoin ETF investor cohort is also back in profit after Bitcoin climbed above the key $89,600 flow-weighted cost basis, a level that was lost two weeks ago.
Bitcoin’s recovery follows a sharp increase in interest rate cut expectations for the US Federal Reserve’s Dec. 10 meeting, with odds increasing by 46% in a week.
Two weeks ago, Bitcoin’s price correction pushed Bitcoin ETF holders below their flow-weighted cost basis near $89,600, according to Glassnode analyst Sean Rose, with the average holder facing paper losses on their investment.
However, most ETF holders are “long-term allocators,” meaning that “being underwater doesn’t trigger quick exits,” Vincent Liu, the chief investment officer at quantitative trading firm Kronos Research, told Cointelegraph.
Alex Bazin, CTO and COO of Lewis Silkin LLP, explores the impact of legal AI on team empowerment and innovation within the legal sector.
Alex Bazin, the Chief Technology Officer and Chief Operating Officer at Lewis Silkin LLP, is at the forefront of integrating technology into the legal industry. In a recent discussion, Bazin elaborated on how legal AI is transforming operations and empowering teams at Lewis Silkin, according to Harvey.ai.
Innovation and Legal AI
Bazin emphasizes that innovation should not be confined to large-scale initiatives. Instead, he advocates for a culture where everyone contributes to reimagining their work processes, guided by client feedback and emerging tools. This approach helps in continuously meeting evolving client needs.
Adoption and Impact of Harvey AI
Lewis Silkin LLP has adopted Harvey AI, a tool that Bazin notes has been well-received by colleagues due to its client-centric changes and adaptability. The firm’s approach to integrating Harvey AI is experimental, allowing flexibility in discovering how best to utilize the tool for enhancing client and firm outcomes.
Since its implementation, Harvey AI has seen broad usage across different levels within the firm, from apprentices to senior partners, indicating its wide-ranging applicability and acceptance.
Specific Use Cases
Harvey AI has significantly impacted document interrogation and summarization. It allows legal professionals to navigate lengthy PDFs and complex contracts efficiently, generating concise summaries that enhance clarity for clients. In employment litigation cases, Harvey AI’s Vault feature aids in organizing materials, generating timelines, and drafting responses, streamlining processes that typically require extensive manual effort.
Additionally, the tool assists in data wrangling and cross-referencing, automating tasks such as extracting structured tables from unsearchable PDFs, which is crucial in corporate transactions and contract reviews.
Building a Culture of Experimentation
For Bazin, success with GenAI lies in fostering a culture of experimentation. The leadership at Lewis Silkin, particularly the Joint Managing Partners, plays a pivotal role in championing technology adoption, ensuring the firm remains at the cutting edge of legal service delivery.
Future of Legal AI
Looking ahead, Bazin believes that GenAI will address the significant latent demand for legal services unmet by traditional models. He anticipates that AI will expand the market, improving outcomes for clients and revolutionizing the legal industry.
Bitcoin has been facing selling near $89,000, but the bulls have not given up much ground, suggesting a rally to $93,500.
Several major altcoins have started a recovery, but they are likely to face selling at higher levels.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) recovery is losing steam as bears attempt to sustain the price below the $88,000 level. Veteran trader Peter Brandt said in a post on X that BTC’s current recovery was a dead cat bounce.
In comparison, network economist Timothy Peterson was slightly more optimistic. Peterson said in a post on X that, according to an AI-based prediction tool, BTC only has a 15% chance of closing below $84,500 by the end of this year. On the way up, there was less than a 50% possibility of BTC reclaiming $100,000 by Dec. 31.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView
Another positive projection came from SignalPlus head of insights Augustine Fan who told Cointelegraph that BTC may have formed “local lows for now.” Fan anticipates BTC to range from $82,000 to $92,000, with the next major downside opening if the price sustains below $78,000.
What are the crucial support and resistance levels to watch for in BTC and major altcoins? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price prediction
BTC’s recovery is expected to face selling at the 20-day exponential moving average ($93,431).
If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it suggests that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. The BTC/USDT pair may then retest the $80,600 level. If the support cracks, the Bitcoin price could drop to $73,777.
This negative view will be invalidated in the near term if the price continues higher and breaks above the 20-day EMA. The pair could then climb to the psychological level of $100,000.
Ether price prediction
Ether’s (ETH) recovery is facing selling near $3,000, but a positive sign is that the bulls have not ceded much ground to the bears.
That indicates the relief rally could reach the 20-day EMA ($3,120) and then to the breakdown level of $3,350. If the price turns down from the overhead resistance zone, the bears will attempt to sink the ETH/USDT pair below $2,623. If that happens, the Ether price could collapse to $2,400.
Buyers will have to push and maintain the price above the 50-day simple moving average ($3,596) to signal that the downtrend may be over.
XRP price prediction
XRP’s (XRP) recovery is facing selling at the 20-day EMA ($2.20), but the bulls have kept up the pressure.
If the price closes above the 20-day EMA, it suggests that the XRP/USDT pair could extend its stay inside the descending channel pattern for some time. A potential trend change will be signaled after buyers drive the XRP price above the downtrend line.
Alternatively, if the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, the bears will attempt to sink the pair below the support line. If they manage to do that, the XRP price could descend to the vital support at $1.61.
BNB price prediction
BNB (BNB) has been witnessing a tough battle between buyers and sellers at the breakdown level of $860.
If the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA ($911), it signals that the bears continue to sell on rallies. That increases the risk of a break below $790, opening the gates for a drop to $730.
Instead, if the BNB price turns up and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it indicates that the market rejected the breakdown below the $860 level. The BNB/USDT pair could then rally to the 50-day SMA ($1,034).
Solana price prediction
Solana (SOL) is facing selling near the 20-day EMA ($144), indicating that the bears remain active at higher levels.
Sellers will attempt to pull the Solana price below the $126 support. If they succeed, the SOL/USDT pair could plunge to $110 and subsequently to $95. Buyers are expected to fiercely defend the $95 support.
On the way up, the bulls will have to clear the 20-day EMA hurdle to gain the upper hand. The pair could then rally to the 50-day SMA ($170), where the bears are expected to pose a substantial challenge.
Dogecoin price prediction
Dogecoin’s (DOGE) bounce off the $0.14 support is facing resistance at the 20-day EMA ($0.16), indicating that the bears are attempting to retain control.
If the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, it heightens the risk of a break below the $0.14 support. The Dogecoin price could then plummet to the Oct. 10 low of $0.10, which could attract buyers.
Contrarily, a break and close above the 20-day EMA suggests that the bears are losing their grip. The DOGE/USDT pair could then rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.18), signaling that the price may remain inside the large range between $0.14 and $0.29 for a while longer.
Cardano price prediction
Cardano’s (ADA) shallow bounce off the $0.38 level indicates a lack of aggressive buying by the bulls.
The bears will try to resume the downtrend by pulling the price below the $0.38 level. If they can pull it off, the ADA/USDT pair could collapse to the Oct. 10 panic low of $0.27.
Buyers have an uphill task ahead of them. Any recovery attempt is expected to face selling at the breakdown level of $0.50, but if the bulls prevail, the Cardano price could rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.58). A close above the 50-day SMA suggests that the downtrend has ended.
If the price turns down sharply from the current level, it suggests that the bears have flipped the $35.50 level into resistance. That increases the risk of a break below the $29.30 level. The HYPE/USDT pair may then tumble to $24.
Buyers will have to drive and maintain the Hyperliquid price above the 50-day SMA ($39.48) to signal a comeback. If they do that, the pair could surge to $44 and eventually to $51.50.
Bitcoin Cash price prediction
Buyers are attempting to maintain Bitcoin Cash (BCH) above the resistance line, but the bears continue to exert pressure.
If the price dips below the moving averages, it suggests that the break above the resistance line may have been a bull trap. The bears will then try to pull the BCH/USDT pair to the solid support at $443.
On the other hand, a strong bounce off the moving averages signals that the bulls are buying on dips. That increases the possibility of a break above the $568 level. The Bitcoin Cash price may then soar to the $606 levels.
Chainlink price prediction
Chainlink (LINK) has risen close to the 20-day EMA ($13.88), where the bears are expected to pose a strong challenge.
If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will try to pull the LINK/USDT pair to the solid support at $10.94. Buyers are expected to defend the $10.94 level with all their might, as a break below it may sink the pair to $7.90.
Conversely, a break and close above the 20-day EMA suggests that the selling pressure is reducing. The pair may then rise to the 50-day SMA ($16.22). A close above the 50-day SMA indicates that the Chainlink price may remain inside the $10.94 to $27 range for some more time.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
For years, US crypto firms operated under overlapping rules from the SEC, CFTC, FTC and FinCEN. The revised 2025 plan signals Washington’s intent to build a more flexible and structured framework tailored to digital assets.
The SEC is moving toward a model centered on innovation, capital formation, market efficiency and investor protection. This marks an acknowledgment that crypto requires dedicated rules rather than adaptations of older regulations.
The plan may lead to exemptions, safe harbors, DLT-specific transfer agent rules and crypto market structure amendments. These steps could help integrate digital assets into traditional market infrastructure.
The plan’s success will depend on cross-agency coordination and international alignment between regulatory agencies. Strong execution could encourage other jurisdictions to adopt more consistent global standards for crypto.
Since its early years, the US cryptocurrency industry has operated in an unclear regulatory environment. Different agencies, such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), have been overlooking different aspects of the crypto ecosystem. In this scenario, crypto enterprises found it difficult to determine what was allowed and what was not.
The SEC’s revised 2025 plan is likely to usher in positive change. It suggests that Washington, DC is seeking a more flexible regulatory framework that streamlines crypto oversight while supporting innovation.
This article discusses the possible outcomes of the plan, its key points, the advantages it may bring and the risks it could involve. It also explores how the plan may influence the crypto ecosystem worldwide.
Why the SEC’s revised 2025 plan matters
Cryptocurrency has evolved well beyond its early speculative phase. Digital tokens are now traded on major platforms, institutional investors allocate funds to them, and tokenization is gradually entering traditional finance. In a fast-changing crypto landscape, regulations are always trying to catch up.
The SEC’s new agenda reflects a shift in approach. It emphasizes innovation, capital management, market efficiency and investor protection. This shows the SEC’s acknowledgment that cryptocurrencies require tailored rules rather than adaptations of existing ones.
Industry representatives have highlighted the lack of clear compliance guidelines and the conflicting interpretations of existing rules. They also point out the tendency to prioritize enforcement over guidance. The SEC’s 2025 agenda includes initiatives that align with many industry concerns.
Did you know? After the Mt. Gox exchange collapse in 2014, Japan became the first major economy to pass a dedicated crypto law in 2017. Japan officially recognized Bitcoin (BTC) as a legal payment method and encouraged exchanges to adopt bank-level security standards.
Major elements of the SEC’s 2025 plan
This comprehensive agenda outlines the key areas and initiatives the SEC will pursue to safeguard investors:
New rules for issuing and selling digital assets
The SEC intends to establish clear guidelines for the issuance of digital assets, which may include exemptions or safe harbor provisions for token projects. This would help determine when a token is considered a security, when it is not and what information issuers must provide. For startups, such clarity would reduce the uncertainty that surrounds token launches.
Permission for crypto trading on national securities exchanges
The SEC is considering changes that would allow digital assets to be traded directly on registered national exchanges and alternative trading systems. These potential amendments aim to bring crypto assets closer to the regulated infrastructure used for traditional stocks, improve surveillance, strengthen investor protections and reduce reliance on less regulated offshore platforms.
Simplified disclosure requirements
The plan aims to streamline and modernize disclosure and compliance obligations for publicly listed companies, including those involved with digital assets. This would reduce administrative burdens for both cryptocurrency-focused firms and traditional businesses and encourage broader adoption.
Clearer rules for crypto intermediaries
Broker-dealers, custodians and trading platforms have operated under uncertain regulatory requirements. The new agenda seeks to clarify how existing rules for securities intermediaries apply to cryptocurrency activities. This would allow more financial institutions, banks and fintech companies to offer crypto-related services with greater confidence.
Streamlining disclosures and reducing compliance burden
The SEC intends to propose a framework for streamlining disclosures. The agency’s primary role involves establishing disclosure standards designed to enhance clarity and mitigate investor risk. With the revised plan, the agency aims to reduce the compliance burden for public companies, particularly regarding shareholder proposals.
The following table provides a brief overview of the SEC’s revised 2025 plan:
Salient points of the SEC revised 2025 plan
Benefits of the SEC’s revised 2025 plan
The SEC’s 2025 plan aims to enhance protection for individual investors, promote fair competition for issuers and financial institutions and strengthen the integrity and efficiency of the capital markets.
For cryptocurrency startups: Clearer regulations could lower legal risks and speed up product development. They would allow companies to stay in the US and grow rather than relocate abroad.
For traditional financial institutions: Banks and asset managers would gain regulated pathways to participate in digital assets while remaining fully compliant.
For investors (retail and institutional): Investors would benefit from better disclosures, safer trading venues and more consistent oversight of platforms. The plan could reduce risks such as hidden leverage or manipulative trading practices.
For regulators and markets: A more unified approach would reduce overlap between agencies. It would enhance market surveillance and align cryptocurrency regulation with established financial safeguards.
Did you know? Swiss regulators classify tokens based on their economic function as payment, utility or asset, similar to how farmers classify livestock. This approach helped Switzerland become one of the earliest global hubs for token innovation.
Remaining questions, risks and potential global impact
While the SEC’s revised 2025 plan looks promising, its success depends on several factors. For instance, it remains to be seen whether US agencies can coordinate effectively with regulators in other countries, given the global nature of cryptocurrencies.
The SEC will need to find an appropriate balance between fostering innovation and protecting investors. This balance will determine whether the 2025 agenda becomes successful or remains a statement of intent.
If the plan does not deliver tangible results, market participants will continue to face uncertainty. The US may lose innovation to other countries and risk its leadership in digital asset finance.
When the US updates its regulatory framework, other jurisdictions take notice. Clearer rules in the US will encourage similar regulatory changes in the European Union, the UK and Asia and foster international cooperation. This will lead to more consistent global standards for stablecoins, tokenization and custody.
The SEC’s 2025 regulatory agenda marks a significant shift toward replacing uncertainty with structure. If the proposed measures succeed, the US may enter a new phase in which cryptocurrency regulation supports responsible development and the protection of investors.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Polygon co-founder Sandeep Nailwal spurred public discussion about the project’s token branding, asking the community if the network should consider reverting its ticker from POL to MATIC.
On Wednesday, Nailwal said that while he personally thinks that they should stick to POL, he continues to hear feedback that the original MATIC ticker had stronger recognition, especially among retail users who are now confused about the asset’s whereabouts.
“The counter-argument I keep getting is: the guy in the Philippines running a sari-sari store, or an Uber driver in Dubai, knew MATIC… and now he has no idea where it went,” he wrote.
Because of this, he asked his followers on X if they think they should change the token back to MATIC. “I’m genuinely curious what the broader community thinks, because this feedback keeps coming up,” he said.
Cointelegraph reached out to Polygon for comments, but had not received a response by publication.
On Sept. 4, 2024, Polygon migrated its MATIC tokens into POL and framed the change as an upgrade. At the time, Polygon Labs CEO Marc Boiron told Cointelegraph that POL “goes one step further” than its predecessor.
While MATIC only earned fees from gas and staking, the POL token will also earn fees from additional actions, such as securing data availability or decentralizing a sequencer.
Polygon token’s one-year chart. Source: CoinGecko
CoinGecko data shows that the Polygon token reached an all-time high of $1.29 on March 13, 2024. According to the data aggregator, the token is now trading at $0.13, which is about 89% below its all-time high.
Community responses to Nailwal’s post reflected a split between users who viewed the ticker as a non-issue and those who expressed that brand recognition was important.
An X user with the handle martijnde_boer said Polygon should keep on building because fundamentals matter more than tickers.
This was echoed by another X user, who said that POL had already gained acceptance. “I believe POL has already overcome the hardest part, which is initial acceptance. Stick with POL,” the user wrote.
On the other hand, several community members pushed back, noting that early adopters associate the project with MATIC and that retail familiarity remains a powerful factor.
“We haven’t really seen a new wave of retail entrants into the markets, so going back to Matic might actually be the play here,” Mo Ezeldin wrote.
While some argued for and against the ticker change, another user suggested going in a different direction, like making the ticker PGON.
“MATIC was the version most OGs remembered it by, but it probably feels less intuitive for new market participants to find it under that ticker. Maybe ‘PGON’ or something would’ve done the trick?” a user wrote.
Michael Saylor’s Strategy is attempting to calm investor concerns about its balance sheet after the recent Bitcoin market downturn and a sharp pullback in digital asset treasury (DAT) stocks.
Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin (BTC) holder, has rolled out a new credit rating dashboard based on the company’s preferred stock notional value, and claims to have another 70 years’ worth of dividend payment runway to service its debt, even if Bitcoin’s price remains flat.
“If $BTC drops to our $74K average cost basis, we still have 5.9x assets to convertible debt, which we refer to as the BTC Rating of our debt. At $25K BTC, it would be 2.0x,” said Strategy in a Tuesday X post.
The move comes as investors grow increasingly worried that falling crypto prices could force large DAT companies into liquidation, adding more selling pressure to an already weakened market.
Strategy’s dividend runway and “robust” enterprise software cash flow are significantly reducing the liquidation risks for the company, according to Lacie Zhang, research analyst at Bitget Wallet.
“We view MicroStrategy’s 71-year dividend runway claim as realistic under a flat Bitcoin price scenario,” however, long-term projections are dependent on several uncertainties, including “market volatility or regulatory shifts,” Zhang told Cointelegraph.
“I’m not particularly concerned about near-term liquidations for the largest corporate BTC holder, as their diversified funding and hodl strategy positions them well for sustained growth.”
Strategy’s ongoing accumulation, she added, has contributed to broader “industry stability” and supported deeper institutional adoption.
Strategy’s hodl stance may prevent deeper Bitcoin declines, analyst says
Strategy’s ability to avoid forced selling could also help Bitcoin avoid falling below key psychological levels in future downturns, according to Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant.
Strategy’s strong financials are a positive signal for the next Bitcoin bear market, as the world’s largest corporate holder is “unlikely to sell,” he said.
This may save BTC from revisiting its realized price of around $56,000 during the next crypto bear market “because players like MSTR are unlikely to sell and those coins are effectively off the market,” wrote the analyst in a Friday X post.
Still, some of the leading DATs suffered significant stock crashes and declines in their market net asset value (mNAV), including Strategy, Bitmine, Metaplanet, Sharplink Gaming, Upexi and DeFi Development Corp.
The mNAV ratio compares a company’s enterprise value to the value of its crypto holdings. An mNAV below 1 makes it more challenging for companies to raise funds by issuing new shares, which may limit their cryptocurrency purchases.
Strategy key metrics, including mNAV. Source: Strategy.com
Strategy’s mNAV stood at 1.16 at the time of writing, meaning the company could still theoretically issue new shares to raise additional capital, according to Strategy’s dashboard.
Blockrise, a Netherlands-based Bitcoin-only startup, has secured a regulatory license that opens the door for fully regulated Bitcoin financial services across Europe.
Issued on Tuesday, the MiCA license allows Blockrise to provide its Bitcoin (BTC) services, including custody solutions, trading and asset management, throughout Europe.
Additionally, Blockrise is debuting a new service that allows its business clients to obtain Bitcoin loans, even though MiCA does not yet regulate cryptocurrency lending services.
Business loans starting at $23,000
“MiCA is the basis for Blockrise to provide Bitcoin-backed loans, only provisioning to business clients in order to stay within the regulatory constraints,” Blockrise CEO Jos Lazet told Cointelegraph.
Starting today, Blockrise will offer a new credit service to all its corporate clients, with business loans starting at 20,000 euros ($23,150).
“Borrowers can collateralize their Bitcoin and open a loan against it,” Lazet said, adding that the current interest rate is 8%, but is revisited every month.
Blockrise CEO Jos Lazet (left) and chief technology officer Jasper Hu. Source: Blockrise
Implemented in full in late 2024, MiCA regulates crypto issuance and trading, though it doesn’t cover many industry services and areas such as lending, decentralized finance (DeFi) and more.
Addressing MiCA’s regulatory scope, the Blockrise CEO expressed optimism about the framework’s potential to scale in the coming years.
“MiCA doesn’t regulate everything yet, however, it is expected to extend over time and include more scopes, such as lending, mining, payments, etc,” Lazet said, adding:
“MiCA is a requirement in order to provide Bitcoin-backed loans, such as the MiCA licenses to custody, transfer and broker.”
Founded in 2017, Blockrise operates a crypto asset management company that offers a “semi-custodial wallet structure.” Unlike with pure self-custody, where users can recover their assets using a private key, Blockrise clients have a digital Blockrise key, which has no value other than accessing BTC on the platform, according to the CEO.
“Blockrise has multiple vaults, so-called Hardware security modules, which securely generate Bitcoin wallets, and the keys cannot be extracted out of the vault. To make a transaction, the user’s Blockrise key is needed,” Lazet said, adding that there’s a dependency on both the user and Blockrise to sign for transactions.
Because Blockrise does not directly custody user funds in the traditional sense, Lazet said assets under management are “a tough measurement.” The company currently oversees about 100 million euros ($116 million) in client assets, he said.
Bitcoin (BTC) is due for a “new uptrend” as a key BTC price metric suggests that the recent drop to $80,000 provided a prime buying opportunity.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple has entered the discount zone, suggesting undervalued market conditions.
BTC bull flag pattern targets a short-term recovery to $96,000.
Bitcoin price is “entering an opportune moment”
Data from CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin is in a buy-the-dip zone. The Puell Multiple, which tracks miners’ daily revenue against the annual average, has returned to the discount zone, following Bitcoin’s latest drop to multi-month lows around $80,500.
When the Puell Multiple falls below 1, it indicates that miners are generating less revenue than usual, suggesting financial pressure and potential capitulation.
At 0.86, the metric signals undervaluation and suggests that the “market is pricing Bitcoin below its fair value,” said CryptoQuant analyst Gaah in a QuickTake analysis on Tuesday.
The last time the indicator was this low was in April 2025, when BTC was trading close to $75,000, preceding a 50% rally to its previous all-time highs of $112,000 reached on May 22.
Bitcoin Puell Multiple and price comparison. Source: CryptoQuant
“Historically, all major correction reversals have started in precisely these discount regions,” the analyst said, adding:
“With the Puell Multiple again below this range, the market signals that we are entering an opportune moment. It is precisely in these moments of pessimism that a new uptrend begins to form.”
Additionally, data from Capriole Investments shows that Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score — a metric that compares BTC’s market value to its realized value and adjusts for volatility — has seen a notable decline, dropping to a two-year low on Nov. 22.
Historically, all previous Bitcoin drawdowns have been accompanied by a notable drop in the MVRV Z-score and have ended with the metric crossing below the green line (see chart below), signaling that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued.
At 1.13, the MVRV Z-score is approaching the green line, indicating that the BTC/USD pair may be forming a local bottom. Similar levels at the end of 2023 preceded an 80% price rally in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicate that the Bitcoin price has risen 8.6% from its local lows of $80,500, as a bull flag suggests a short-term rebound.
The bull flag was in play when the price broke above the upper trendline of the flag at $87,200 on Wednesday. The BTC/USD pair is currently retesting this level to confirm the breakout.
A successful confirmation would clear the way for a rally toward the measured target of the flag at $96,800, a 10.6% rise from the current price.
Another argument for the bullish case is the positive relative strength index, which has increased to 51 from oversold conditions on Saturday, suggesting increasing upward momentum.
However, veteran trader Peter Brandt warned on Tuesday that Bitcoin’s rebound to $89,00 could be a “dead cat bounce” before traders see another leg downward.
As Cointelegraph reported, a final leverage flush below $80,000 is still possible, as the recent liquidation event may not yet be over.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
AAVE price prediction targets $208-$246 recovery over next month as technical indicators show oversold bounce potential from current $176 support level.
Aave (AAVE) is showing classic oversold recovery signals at current levels around $176, with multiple technical indicators aligning for a potential 18-39% upside move over the coming weeks. Our comprehensive AAVE price prediction analysis suggests the DeFi lending protocol’s token is positioning for a significant bounce from oversold conditions.
AAVE Price Prediction Summary
• AAVE short-term target (1 week): $194-$208 (+10-18%)
• Aave medium-term forecast (1 month): $208-$246 range (+18-39%)
• Key level to break for bullish continuation: $184.78 (SMA 20 resistance)
• Critical support if bearish: $147.13 (immediate support level)
Recent Aave Price Predictions from Analysts
The analyst community shows remarkable consensus on AAVE’s recovery potential. Recent predictions from CoinCodex and Blockchain.News are converging around similar upside targets, with the most conservative AAVE price prediction from CoinCodex targeting $194.60 representing a 16.99% gain over 5 days.
Blockchain.News has been particularly bullish with their Aave forecast, consistently targeting the $208.54 level across multiple reports, citing oversold conditions as the primary catalyst. Their most ambitious AAVE price target reaches $256.24 for a 30-day timeframe, representing a potential 45% upside from current levels.
The consensus among analysts suggests AAVE has found a technical floor around current levels, with oversold RSI readings and positive MACD histogram divergence supporting recovery scenarios across all recent predictions.
AAVE Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Oversold Bounce
Current Aave technical analysis reveals several bullish divergences supporting our recovery thesis. The daily RSI at 43.32 sits in neutral territory but has been trending higher from oversold levels below 30 just weeks ago. This RSI recovery pattern often precedes meaningful price bounces in cryptocurrency markets.
The MACD histogram at 1.7854 shows the first signs of bullish momentum returning to AAVE, with the histogram moving positive despite the MACD line remaining below zero. This early momentum shift typically occurs 1-2 weeks before significant price moves materialize.
AAVE’s position within the Bollinger Bands at 0.39 indicates the token is trading in the lower portion of its recent range, providing substantial room for mean reversion toward the middle band at $184.78. Trading volume of $13.2 million on Binance provides adequate liquidity to support a meaningful recovery move.
Aave Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for AAVE
Our primary AAVE price target focuses on the $194-$208 zone, representing the convergence of multiple resistance levels. The first major hurdle sits at $184.78 (SMA 20), which AAVE must reclaim to confirm the oversold bounce thesis.
Breaking above $194 would target the $208.54 level identified by multiple analysts, representing a key Fibonacci retracement level from AAVE’s recent decline. Success at $208 opens the path to $232.25 (immediate resistance) and ultimately the $246-$256 range for our extended Aave forecast.
The strongest bullish scenario sees AAVE reclaiming the $211.02 level (SMA 50), which would signal a complete reversal of the recent downtrend and target the $287 strong resistance zone over a 2-3 month timeframe.
Bearish Risk for Aave
The primary risk to our bullish AAVE price prediction centers around the $147.13 immediate support level. A break below this critical support would invalidate the oversold bounce scenario and target the $146.08 lower Bollinger Band.
Further downside beyond $146 would target the psychological $125-$130 zone, representing AAVE’s 52-week low area. Such a scenario would require a broader DeFi market selloff or specific negative developments affecting Aave protocol fundamentals.
Volume expansion on any break below $147 would be particularly concerning and would necessitate a reassessment of our medium-term Aave forecast.
Should You Buy AAVE Now? Entry Strategy
The current price zone around $176 presents an attractive entry opportunity for those bullish on our AAVE price prediction. The optimal buy or sell AAVE decision favors accumulation between $174-$178, with the 24-hour low at $174.20 representing an ideal entry point.
Risk management requires a stop-loss below $147 to protect against the bearish scenario outlined above. This provides a favorable 2:1 risk-reward ratio targeting the initial $208 AAVE price target.
Position sizing should account for AAVE’s daily ATR of $16.24, suggesting potential 9% daily moves in either direction. Conservative traders might consider dollar-cost averaging into positions over 1-2 weeks to reduce timing risk.
AAVE Price Prediction Conclusion
Our analysis supports a medium confidence AAVE price prediction targeting $194-$208 within 1-2 weeks, extending to $208-$246 over the next month. The combination of oversold technical conditions, positive MACD momentum, and analyst consensus creates a compelling case for AAVE recovery from current levels.
Key confirmation signals include a break above $184.78 (SMA 20) and sustained volume above $15 million daily. Invalidation occurs below $147.13 support, which would require reassessing the bullish Aave forecast.
The 4-week timeframe provides sufficient duration for oversold conditions to normalize while allowing AAVE to benefit from any broader DeFi market recovery. Traders should monitor Bitcoin and Ethereum correlation as additional confirmation factors for this prediction.
Zcash surged more than 10x within weeks, briefly returning to large-cap territory with a valuation above $10 billion.
On Coinbase, ZEC became the most-searched asset in mid-November, surpassing both Bitcoin and XRP.
The rally is supported by several real shifts: the 2024 halving, rising shielded balances and the NU6.1 holder-controlled funding model.
Analysts are divided, with some calling the move a blow-off top and others viewing it as a repricing driven by renewed interest in “responsible” privacy coins amid stricter AML rules.
Zcash wasn’t expected to become a major story this market cycle. For most of the past few years, the privacy coin remained in the background while Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP) and a rotating cast of memecoins dominated headlines and trading activity.
Then November arrived.
In just a few days, Zcash (ZEC) climbed to the top of Coinbase’s search rankings. A screenshot shared by Zcash adviser Thor Torrens showed ZEC drawing around 52,000 searches on the platform. This was ahead of both XRP and Bitcoin, which recorded roughly 41,000 and 39,000 searches, respectively.
Zcash tops search charts on Coinbase
At the same time, ZEC’s price had already surged, delivering a four-digit percentage gain over the past year and briefly pushing the token back into the large-cap bracket.
For a coin many traders had written off as a relic of the previous privacy cycle, the question now is simple: How did Zcash go from low-profile to most-searched in a single month?
Did you know? Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox is a longtime cypherpunk who worked on DigiCash in the 1990s and helped create projects such as Tahoe-LAFS, the BLAKE2 hash function and the concept known as Zooko’s Triangle long before ZEC launched.
How Zcash slipped into low-profile relic status
For readers who haven’t looked at it in years, it is worth remembering what Zcash actually is.
Launched in 2016 as a Bitcoin-style proof-of-work (PoW) chain with a hard cap of 21 million coins, it was built around cutting-edge zero-knowledge proofs. These allow users to send either transparent transactions, similar to Bitcoin, or fully shielded transactions where amounts and addresses are hidden but still mathematically verifiable.
For a while, it was treated as a kind of “science project with a price,” backed by heavyweight cryptographers and privacy advocates.
Then the spotlight moved on. As regulators increased scrutiny of privacy coins, several major exchanges delisted or restricted them, and Monero (XMR) gradually became the default choice for die-hard privacy users.
ZEC slid down the market capitalization rankings, daily volumes thinned out, and social chatter faded. By early 2024, despite having survived two halving events and multiple network upgrades, it looked more like a legacy token from an earlier era than a contender for a new narrative.
The slow turnaround: Halvings, shielded usage and a governance reset
The November spike did not come out of nowhere. Zcash spent the past two years quietly reshaping its underlying story, while most of the market was not paying attention.
On the monetary side, the most recent halving on Nov. 23, 2024, cut the block reward from 3.125 ZEC to 1.5625 ZEC, reducing daily new issuance from roughly 3,600 coins to about 1,800. With a fixed supply of 21 million and halving cycles now running on a tighter post-Blossom schedule, ZEC began to be discussed in “sound money” terms by parts of the community.
Under the hood, actual usage was shifting as well. Coinbase research notes that the amount of ZEC held in shielded addresses climbed from about 1.7 million coins to roughly 4.5 million over the past year, with more than 1 million coins moving into shielded pools within a three-week window.
Overall, more than 27% of the circulating supply is now shielded, and other trackers show the peak shielded supply briefly rising above 5 million coins. This suggests that users are not just trading the ticker.
At the same time, the new funding and governance structure went live. The NU6.1 upgrade, activated on Nov. 24, 2025, allocates 8% of block rewards to community grants and 12% to a coinholder-controlled fund. This gives ZEC holders a formal say in how millions of dollars in development capital are deployed between now and the next halving in 2028.
Together, these changes laid the groundwork for a rerating long before search volumes surged.
Did you know? The Electric Coin Company commissioned Rand Europe to study criminal use of Zcash. The researchers found that ZEC had only a minor presence on the dark web and that Bitcoin remained the dominant currency for illicit activity.
Privacy revival, Monero exploit and new AML rules
The spark for all this was a mix of narrative and timing.
Privacy suddenly returned to focus after a high-profile exploit in Monero shook confidence in the sector’s default choice. Commentators began looking for an alternative with active governance and a clear upgrade path. With a scheduled network update underway and a halving narrative in the background, Zcash positioned itself as a candidate to fill that vacuum.
At the same time, regulators continued tightening oversight on opaque money flows. New Anti-Money Laundering (AML) rules, stronger Travel Rule enforcement and increased scrutiny of mixers made “total darkness” harder to defend, whereas Zcash’s model of optional privacy and auditable view keys appeared more compatible with compliance-minded institutions.
A rival stumbling, a returning theme and a protocol that could be positioned as a “responsible” privacy coin gave ZEC a fresh story just as traders were looking for the next big narrative.
About the Coinbase surge: What 52,000 searches really mean
According to figures shared by Zcash adviser Torrens, ZEC logged around 52,000 individual searches on Coinbase in mid-November, compared with roughly 41,000 for XRP and 39,000 for Bitcoin.
That is a clear snapshot of retail curiosity, with tens of thousands of users typing “Zcash” into the search bar on one of the largest fiat on-ramps in the world.
Off-exchange, social data from X and Reddit showed a similar rise in mentions. Taken together, November was the month Zcash reentered retail consciousness.
Blow-off top or real repricing
Look only at the chart, and it is easy to call this a blow-off top. From late September to early November, ZEC climbed from the mid-$70s to more than $700, at one point rising over 1,000% this fall and more than 500% in a single month, before sliding about 30% from its local high.
Coinbase notes that Zcash futures volume approached $10 billion on Nov. 7, and derivatives platforms have reported rising open interest as traders piled into the move. For anyone who has lived through past altcoin manias, those indicators often appear in periods of heavy speculative positioning.
But there is also a case that November was more of a repricing rather than a pure mania spike. Supply growth has already been cut in half by the 2024 halving, shielded usage now accounts for more than a quarter of the circulating supply, and NU6.1 has introduced a clearer and more transparent funding model through the next halving cycle.
If those fundamentals hold, some analysts argue that any sharp correction could represent a reset within a higher range, although outcomes remain uncertain. The hard part, as always, is separating narrative from lasting change in real time.
Did you know? Before Zcash launched in October 2016, futures contracts tied to the coin on over-the-counter (OTC) platforms jumped from about $18 to $261 in six weeks, a roughly 1,300% gain driven purely by anticipation of its privacy technology.
What Zcash’s November moment tells us about crypto narratives
Zcash’s November moment says as much about the broader crypto market as it does about one older token.
Markets have a habit of rediscovering assets that quietly improve their economics, strengthen governance and wait for the right macro story to catch up. In this case, the story centered on privacy. Rising concern over data exposure, tighter AML enforcement and fatigue with fully transparent chains created space for a “partial privacy” alternative that did not appear to be an immediate regulatory target.
For readers, the takeaway is twofold.
First, exchange search data is a useful early signal for where retail attention is drifting, but it often appears just as fear of missing out (FOMO) peaks.
Second, themes never truly disappear in crypto; they cycle. If Zcash can turn a legacy reputation into a fresh narrative, other forgotten categories may not be as dead as their charts suggest.
