Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded 8.7% to $107,500 on Tuesday, following its four-month low of $98,900, as whales took advantage of discounted prices to add to their holdings. The price has since corrected below $103,000 on Thursday, as $106,000 proved a tough barrier to break.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin whales recorded their second-largest weekly accumulation of 2025.
Long-term holders continue to sell, frustrating recovery attempts.
BTC sell pressure sits at $106,000, a resistance level that may stop the bulls.
Market participants have observed deliberate posturing by whales, as these large holders recorded their second-largest accumulation of 2025, according to data from market onchain data provider CryptoQuant.
In March, whales — entities holding 1,000 BTC or more — initiated the most significant accumulation wave of the year amid a sharp decline in Bitcoin price.
“In the last week, whales accumulated more than 45,000 BTC, marking the second-largest weekly accumulation process in these wallets,” said CryptoQuant analyst Caueconomy in a Wednesday Quicktake analysis, adding:
“Large players are once again taking advantage of the capitulation of small investors to absorb coins.”
Bitcoin whale weekly change. Source: CryptoQuant
Nevertheless, this spot buying volume was insufficient to demonstrate a more widespread buy-the-dip recovery pattern.
There is a need for “renewed conviction and stronger demand from new market entrants” and other investors, such as day traders and retail investors, to push the price to above $106,000, Glassnode said in its latest Week Onchain report.
However, not all Bitcoin whales are accumulating. Long-term whale, Owen Gunden, continued to sell, transferring 2,401 BTC worth $245 million to Kraken on Thursday, according to Onchain Lens.
Owen Gunden has deposited 2,401 $BTC, worth $244.96M, into #Kraken, 3 hours ago.
As Cointelegraph reported, OG holders have moved large sums of BTC to exchanges, raising concerns about long-term confidence as Bitcoin loses momentum.
Bitcoin faces stiff resistance above $106,000
The BTC/USD pair failed to break $106,000 as its rebound stopped short of a bull market comeback.
This is due to “a dense supply cluster between $106K and $118K that continues to cap upward momentum, as many investors use this range to exit near breakeven, said Glassnode.
According to Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution heatmap, investors hold about 417,750 BTC at an average cost of between $106,000 and $107,200, establishing a resistance zone.
Glassnode added:
“This overhang of latent supply creates a natural resistance zone where rallies may stall, suggesting that sustained recovery will require renewed inflows strong enough to absorb this wave of distribution.”
Bitcoin: Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap. Source: Glassnode.
Traders say the BTC/USD pair must flip the resistance between $106,000 and $107,000 into support to target higher highs above $110,000.
“BTC is trending up on the lower time frame,” said analyst Daan Crypro Trades in a recent X post, adding:
“But it needs to break that $107K area. If it can do so, it would turn this into a decent deviation and retake back into the range.”
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades
Technical analyst CRYPTO Damus said BTC price to “make a higher high above 106K and breakout above the down trend line at $107,350 to flip the script bullish.”
“If we want to break upward, I’d rather want to see a break north of $108K-$110K, and then we’ll see a new ATH,” MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said in a Friday post on X.
As Cointelegraph reported, a break and close above the breakdown level of $107,000 would signal that the bulls are back in the driver’s seat.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
A green light for institutional staking alone will not signal a long-term future for Ethereum. As institutions enter the Web3 ecosystem, they need to recognize that ETH isn’t an asset that can be fit into existing TradFi molds; it’s the World Computer. Unless institutions can embrace Ethereum’s philosophy of decentralization, as well as its token, their core infrastructure and inherent proposition are doomed to fail.
The dot-com bubble offers a cautionary tale for Ethereum adopters. It burst partly because institutions dove headfirst into the consumer internet’s lucrative market potential without sufficiently understanding the infrastructure beneath it. The gap between capital and comprehension bred dysfunction.
Institutions should not repeat that mistake. As they move onchain, they should adopt a more balanced approach: accruing economic rewards while actively supporting network health and respecting the blockchain’s underlying ethos.
Institutions need to stake
ETH staking exemplifies this balance. In August 2025, the SEC declared that “most staking activities” were not securities, emphasizing that the yield from staked ETH was accrued through administrative acts to maintain the network. SEC guidelines and other important legislation were a landmark decision that opened the floodgates for institutional capital, and now over 10% of ETH is held in ETFs or strategic reserves.
As institutions pile in, however, they must remember that while staking their ETH reserves is a potentially lucrative exercise, its primary function is to support the underlying infrastructure.
Through staking, validators lock up ETH as collateral. If they validate transactions correctly, they earn rewards, but if they act maliciously or fail to perform their duties, their stake is penalized. This economic incentive, spread across thousands of independent validators, is what keeps the network secure and running smoothly.
To ensure regulatory compliance and shore up the future value of their assets, institutions must contribute meaningfully to the maintenance of Ethereum’s decentralized network through staking, while mitigating any risk of centralization or downtime.
DVT offers security in the face of centralization
The total amount of staked ETH is approaching 36 million (~29% of the supply), with around 25% held by centralized exchanges. With staking-enabled ETFs likely to encourage institutional interest in staking, ETH is approaching concentration thresholds whereupon the Ethereum Network’s decentralization could be meaningfully questioned, thus risking the security of the network and compromising the inherent purpose of the staking mechanism.
Several paths exist to address centralization risks, including encouraging client diversity, improving the geographic distribution of infrastructure, and supporting staking protocols with decentralized node operators.
Relying on piecemeal strategies alone may prove insufficient. What is needed are wholesale infrastructural solutions that can securely support global institutions.
Distributed validator technology (DVT) is an obvious solution. By splitting validator duties between multiple machines and spreading their responsibilities across different nodes, it ensures not only that the distribution of infrastructure maintaining validators is decentralized, but their functions too, ensuring the arrangement of validators in a global network of independent nodes.
Through threshold cryptography and multisignature validation, DVT prevents any single operator from controlling or compromising a validator. In contrast, its distributed architecture prevents single-point failures in the network, increasing resistance to censorship, outages, malicious activity and attacks.
DVT works for institutions
If institutions and exchanges adopt this setup, it removes the risk of a lopsided distribution of staked ETH, and improves the security and capital efficiency of their stake. DVT vastly reduces slashing risks while achieving ~99% uptime through fault-tolerant multiparty operation.
DVT eliminates single-point failures that could expose institutions to validator penalties and therefore maximizes rewards. Institutions using such infrastructure would have superior risk profiles compared to their alternatives, with greater fault tolerance and guaranteed regulatory compliance due to their maintenance of Ethereum’s network health.
The May 2025 Pectra upgrade increased the maximum stake to 2,048 ETH per validator. This is inherently a positive development for institutions with substantial ETH holdings and directly appeals to ETH reserve companies. Validators with such a large delegation of ETH do, however, pose inherent risks of centralization. DVT allows for large staking delegations while maintaining decentralization, without the operational overhead of spreading them over many validators to mitigate these risks.
The wholesale adoption of solutions like DVT would lead to a virtuous cycle, wherein every delegation of staked ETH would provide predictable, secure returns to institutional investors, while shoring up the underlying asset and ensuring decentralized validator distribution. Not only does DVT demonstrate how an ethos of decentralization can be hardwired into institutional adoption, it also shows how global finance and a cypherpunk ethos can coexist in productive ways.
ETH is more than an asset
The lesson institutions must internalize is this: ETH cannot be treated as just another treasury asset. It represents ownership in a decentralized computational network whose value proposition depends entirely on maintaining that decentralization. Institutions that stake without regard for network health are undermining their own investment thesis: Centralized Ethereum is a contradiction in terms.
This doesn’t mean sacrificing returns; instead, it means recognizing that sustainable yields depend on healthy infrastructure. By embracing DVT and other decentralization-preserving technologies, institutions can simultaneously maximize their economic returns and secure the network they now have significant stakes in.
The choice is simple: Build Ethereum’s future on solid, distributed infrastructure, or risk regulatory uncertainty and technical risks undermining the inherent value driving the most significant wave of crypto adoption in history.
Opinion by: Alon Muroch, founder of SSV Labs.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Ripple is spending about $4 billion to combine prime trading, treasury tools, payments and custody into a single integrated setup.
RLUSD trials aim to settle real card payments and corporate payouts onchain, then sync results back into ERP and TMS systems.
To scale, Ripple needs strong controls with clear reserves, strict compliance checks and transparent accounting rules.
Success will show in the data through faster settlements, lower costs and consistent real-world volume every day.
Ripple is positioning itself for a bigger role in traditional finance. In an interview at Swell 2025, the company described its $4 billion acquisition spree as the foundation for moving institutional money on the XRP Ledger alongside existing banking workflows.
The push comes after:
A new $500-million raise at a reported $40 billion valuation
A deal to acquire multi-asset prime broker Hidden Road for about $1.25 billion
A Ripple USD (RLUSD) pilot with Mastercard, WebBank and Gemini aimed at settling card payments onchain.
Taken together, the plan spans custody through Metaco, prime brokerage access and stablecoin-based settlement that integrates with the treasury and enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems already used by banks and corporates.
What the $4 billion actually buys
Prime brokerage and credit: Ripple agreed to acquire non-bank prime broker Hidden Road for about $1.25 billion, giving institutions unified market access, clearing, financing and, where supported, the option to use RLUSD as eligible collateral.
Treasury software integration: A roughly $1-billion deal for GTreasury connects Ripple to corporate treasury management system (TMS) and ERP workflows, including cash positioning, foreign exchange, risk management and reconciliation. This allows onchain settlements to be reflected within existing finance systems.
Stablecoin payments stack: The purchase of Rail, valued at about $200 million, adds virtual accounts, automated back-office tools and cross-border stablecoin payout capabilities. It serves as the operational layer for routing RLUSD through real business-to-business (B2B) payment flows.
Bank-grade custody and controls:Metaco, acquired in 2023, provides segregation of duties, policy engines and institutional key management for tokens, stablecoin reserves and enterprise wallets.
Card and merchant settlement pilot: In partnership with Mastercard, WebBank (the issuer of the Gemini card) and Gemini, Ripple is testing RLUSD settlement on the XRP Ledger. The initiative marks an early step toward shifting traditional fiat card batches to stablecoin-based settlement.
Capital and distribution: The new $500-million funding round gives Ripple room to integrate its acquisitions and expand sales to banks, brokers and large corporations.
Each line item targets a distinct function, including prime access, treasury connectivity, payment operations, custody and the capital that ties them together. The structure is designed to reduce overlap and demonstrate how all the pieces fit.
Did you know? In corporate finance, most treasurers still reconcile payments by importing batch files into ERP and TMS platforms. Any onchain settlement that can auto-generate those files helps reduce manual work at month-end.
How an enterprise would use Ripple
A) Cross-border payouts for a corporate treasurer
First, the treasury team sets the ground rules in the company’s TMS, defining approval limits, currency caps and eligible beneficiaries.
Next comes funding. The finance team moves cash from the operating account and converts a portion into RLUSD or XRP (XRP) through connected banking channels or prime brokerage access, assigning wallets to each subsidiary or business unit.
When a payout is created, the treasurer decides how to handle foreign exchange, choosing whether to convert before sending or upon receipt, and routes the transaction through Ripple’s payments stack with optional conversion at the edge for last-mile fiat delivery.
Settlement is nearly instant. The ledger event, invoice reference and payment details flow back into the ERP and TMS platforms, so reconciliation happens automatically.
Safekeeping is handled either in-house, with role-based policies and hardware security module (HSM) and multiparty computation (MPC) controls or through a qualified custodian. Duties are separated to align with enterprise governance policies.
Throughout the month, real-time transaction limits, the Travel Rule and Know Your Customer (KYC) checks and thorough auditing help maintain controls and support the month-end close.
B) Broker-dealer liquidity and financing
A broker or market desk connects to spot and derivatives venues through prime brokerage APIs to centralize market access, credit, clearing and settlement. RLUSD or XRP can be posted as collateral depending on the platform’s rules. Each platform decides how much of that collateral’s value counts toward a loan or trade (called a haircut) and which asset gets used first if more funds are needed (called margin priority).
Financing is activated as needed, whether term or intraday, against approved collateral with real-time visibility into limit utilization. Positions are netted to custody at the end of the day, and any excess funds are swept to the treasury for working capital or short-term yield. Trade and position data feed into risk, profit and loss (PnL) and compliance dashboards, with records archived for audits and regulatory reviews.
C) Card and merchant settlement
In the card pilot, the acquirer nets a day’s merchant transactions and prepares a single batch. The net amount settles in RLUSD on the XRP Ledger, with the option to convert to fiat immediately at the sponsor bank.
The treasury team imports the batch file, closes receivables and updates cash positions in the ERP and TMS platforms as usual.
Disputes and chargebacks continue under existing card network rules, and any fiat adjustments map directly to accounting entries. This means finance teams do not need to modify their existing month-end close process.
Did you know? Auditors increasingly ask for deterministic links between a payment instruction, its onchain transaction and the corresponding accounting entry. API-native evidence packs can significantly shorten audit timelines.
What changes if this all lands?
Charter and Fed access
If Ripple or one of its affiliates obtains a bank charter and a US Federal Reserve master account, the setup would change for clients. Stablecoin reserves could be held directly at the Fed instead of through a commercial intermediary, reducing counterparty and settlement risk. Payment flows would also gain clearer finality windows and fewer intermediaries, which is important for treasurers who measure every leg of cost, latency and reconciliation.
Stablecoin treatment and controls
Scale depends on maintaining bank-grade discipline. Expect scrutiny over reserve segregation, stress testing, intraday liquidity management and whether RLUSD can qualify as a cash equivalent in specific contexts. Independent attestations and transparent look-throughs to reserve assets will likely be a gating requirement for many finance teams.
Card networks and sponsor banks
For card settlement and merchant payouts, alignment on disputes, chargebacks, refunds and consumer protections is essential. The onchain component must map one-to-one with existing rules so operations teams do not need to redesign their exception-handling processes.
Travel Rule, sanctions and data
Cross-border payouts require KYC and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) processes that meet correspondent banking standards, along with reliable virtual asset service provider (VASP) information exchange and sanctions screening. Institutions will look for standardized data payloads, including beneficiary information, purpose codes and audit trails that integrate directly into compliance systems.
Accounting and reporting
Finance teams will need clear policies defining the instances when RLUSD should be classified as cash, restricted cash or a digital asset, how foreign exchange (FX) is recognized and how network fees are recorded. ERP connectors, detailed sub-ledgers and tight month-end reporting packs will determine whether “day two” operations function as a routine process.
Did you know? The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Travel Rule sets a data-sharing threshold, typically around $1,000 or 1,000 euros, for VASPs. This is why stablecoin payout infrastructure emphasizes standardized beneficiary data and purpose codes.
How this differs from rivals
Most firms in this space focus on a single specialty:
Stablecoin issuers concentrate on the token and fiat on- and off-ramps.
Custodians provide safekeeping and policy controls.
Payment companies handle fund transfers.
Treasury vendors connect to ERP systems.
Prime brokers offer market access and credit.
Ripple’s bet is to package these components for institutions. The goal is to let a finance team move seamlessly from instruction in treasury to funding through RLUSD or XRP and then to execution in payments or prime brokerage. Finally, safekeeping takes place in custody without the need to stitch together multiple vendors.
The upside is straight-through processing with a single client setup, unified controls, a shared data model and fewer reconciliation breaks.
The risk lies in breadth over depth, as specialists may still outperform a full-suite solution in their specific niches. For Wall Street buyers, the key question is whether an all-in-one stack can lower total cost and latency across the entire workflow while maintaining bank-grade controls.
How to judge the Wall Street pitch
If this bridge is real, it will appear in unglamorous places first, such as treasury dashboards, card-settlement files and auditor sign-offs.
The tells are fairly simple:
RLUSD moving through merchant batches and supplier payouts
The prime, treasury and payments components operating under one client contract
Concrete charter and master-account developments that determine where reserves sit and how settlement finality is achieved.
If those signals start to appear, and corridor-level data shows better performance than the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) and Automated Clearing House (ACH) networks on cost and speed, that will be the turning point. The story will then move beyond headline mergers and acquisitions. It will begin to take shape inside the everyday infrastructure of finance.
Bitcoin (BTC) bulls pushed the price above $105,000 on Wednesday, but the bears pounced on the rally and pulled the price below $102,000. That shows the bears are not willing to relinquish their advantage.
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management investment strategist Denny Galindo has turned cautious on the BTC rally. In a podcast episode titled Crypto Goes Mainstream, he said that BTC’s price cycle was in the “fall season,” where one should book profits before winter sets in.
Key points:
Bitcoin turned down from $107,000, signaling that the bears are trying to flip the level into resistance.
Several major altcoins rebounded from their support levels but encountered strong selling pressure near overhead resistance levels.
A slightly different short-term view was presented by Dan Tapiero, the founder of 10T Holdings. In an interview with Cointelegraph, Tapiero said that the bull market remained intact and on track to reach $180,000 in its current bull cycle. However, he cautioned that BTC remained vulnerable to a 70% drop during the next bear phase.
What are the crucial support and overhead resistance levels to watch out for in BTC and the major altcoins? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price prediction
BTC’s relief rally hit a sell wall at the 20-day exponential moving average ($106,302) on Tuesday, indicating that the negative sentiment remains intact.
The bears will attempt to strengthen their position by pulling the price below the psychological support at $100,000. If they manage to do that, the selling could accelerate and the BTC/USDT pair could plummet to $87,800.
Contrary to this assumption, if the Bitcoin price rises from its current level or the $100,000 support, it suggests that the bulls have not given up. A break and close above the breakdown level of $107,000 signals that the bulls are back in the driver’s seat.
Ether price prediction
Ether’s (ETH) recovery hit a roadblock at the breakdown level from the descending channel pattern.
Sellers will strive to strengthen their position by pulling the price below the $3,350 to $3,050 support zone. If that happens, the ETH/USDT pair could start a new downtrend toward $2,500.
Buyers will have to push and maintain the Ether price inside the channel to indicate a comeback. The pair could then rise to the 50-day simple moving average ($3,960), which is likely to attract sellers.
XRP price prediction
Buyers pushed XRP (XRP) above the 20-day EMA ($2.41) on Monday but were unable to clear the hurdle at the 50-day SMA ($2.58).
The bears are attempting to sustain the XRP price below the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the XRP/USDT pair could challenge the Nov. 4 intraday low of $2.06. This is a crucial level for the bulls to defend, as a close below $2.06 opens the doors for a fall to $1.90.
On the upside, the bulls will have to push and maintain the price above the downtrend line to suggest that the corrective phase may be over. The XRP price could then rally toward $3.20.
BNB price prediction
BNB’s (BNB) pullback fizzled out at the 20-day EMA ($1,022), indicating that the bears are active at higher levels.
The bears will attempt to pull the BNB price to the solid support at $860. If the price rises sharply from $860, it indicates that the bulls are aggressively defending the level. Buyers will then make another attempt to push the price above the 20-day EMA.
On the other hand, a weak rebound off $860 signals that the bears continue to exert pressure. That increases the possibility of a break below $860. The BNB/USDT pair may then slump toward $730.
Solana price prediction
Solana (SOL) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($172) on Tuesday, indicating that higher levels are attracting sellers.
The bears are attempting to sink the Solana price below the $155 support. If they succeed, the SOL/USDT pair could extend the decline to $126 and subsequently to the solid support at $110.
Buyers will have to push the price above the 20-day EMA to indicate strength. The pair could then climb to the 50-day SMA ($193), where the bears are expected to sell aggressively. However, if buyers overcome the resistance, the pair could ascend to $210.
Dogecoin price prediction
The failure of the bulls to push Dogecoin (DOGE) above the 20-day EMA ($0.18) suggests that the bears have maintained pressure.
Sellers will likely attempt to drive the Dogecoin price down to the $0.14 support level, which is a critical point to watch. If the support gives way, the DOGE/USDT pair could retest the Oct. 10 low of $0.10.
This negative view will be invalidated if the price turns up and breaks above the 20-day EMA. The pair may then climb to the $0.21 level. That suggests the pair may remain inside the $0.14 to $0.29 range for a while longer.
Cardano price prediction
Cardano’s (ADA) relief rally stalled at the 20-day EMA ($0.59) on Monday, indicating that the bears remain in control.
Sellers will attempt to sink the ADA/USDT pair to the solid support at $0.50, where the buyers are expected to step in. A weak bounce off the $0.50 level heightens the risk of a breakdown. The pair could then start a new downtrend toward $0.40.
On the contrary, if the price turns up from the current level or $0.50 and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it suggests that the bulls are attempting a comeback. The Cardano price may march toward the 50-day SMA ($0.68) and thereafter to the breakdown level of $0.75.
The bulls and the bears are witnessing a tough battle at the neckline. If the level holds, the bulls will again try to drive the Hyperliquid price above the 50-day SMA. If they can pull it off, the HYPE/USDT pair could surge toward $52.
Alternatively, a drop below the $37.47 level suggests that the bears have seized control. The pair may then slump to the solid support at $35.50. This is a vital level for the bulls to defend, as a break below it may sink the pair to $30.50 and later to $28.
Chainlink price prediction
Chainlink (LINK) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($16.50) on Tuesday but is finding support at $15.43.
A minor positive for the bulls is that the RSI is showing early signs of forming a positive divergence. That suggests the selling pressure is reducing. A close above the 20-day EMA opens the gates for a recovery to the resistance line.
Sellers are likely to have other plans. They will try to defend the 20-day EMA and pull the Chainlink price below $15.43. If they succeed, the LINK/USDT pair may plunge to the Nov. 4 intraday low of $13.69.
Bitcoin Cash price prediction
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) turned down from the resistance line of the falling wedge pattern on Tuesday, but the bulls were unable to sustain the lower levels.
The bulls are again attempting to thrust the Bitcoin Cash price above the resistance line. If that happens, it suggests a potential shift in trend. The BCH/USDT pair could then rally to the $615 to $651 resistance zone, where the bears are expected to mount a strong defense.
On the downside, a break and close below $500 signals that the bears are fiercely defending the resistance line. That could keep the pair inside the wedge for a little longer.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
AAVE price prediction shows potential rally to $246 in the short term, with medium-term Aave forecast targeting $340-$370 range based on technical analysis.
With AAVE trading at $217.29, multiple technical indicators are converging to suggest a potential bullish breakout in the coming weeks. Our comprehensive AAVE price prediction analysis reveals compelling upside targets, though traders should remain cautious of key support levels that could invalidate the bullish thesis.
AAVE Price Prediction Summary
• AAVE short-term target (2 weeks): $246 (+13.2%)
• Aave medium-term forecast (1-2 months): $340-$370 range (+56-70%)
• Key level to break for bullish continuation: $249.00 (immediate resistance)
• Critical support if bearish: $189.13 (Bollinger Band lower support)
Recent Aave Price Predictions from Analysts
The latest AAVE price prediction from leading analysts shows remarkable consensus around the $210-$246 range for short-term targets. CoinLore’s $212.17 prediction aligns closely with technical support levels, while AMB Crypto’s $224.96 forecast sits near current trading ranges.
Most notably, ABC Money’s $246 price target coincides with our technical analysis, supported by Aave’s Total Value Locked reaching $25 billion and recent governance upgrades. The standout Aave forecast comes from Blockchain.News, projecting medium-term targets of $340-$370, which aligns with our analysis of the 52-week high at $357.78.
The consensus among analysts suggests moderate confidence in upward movement, though the relatively tight range of short-term predictions ($212-$246) indicates cautious optimism rather than aggressive bullishness.
AAVE Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Bullish Reversal
The current Aave technical analysis reveals several compelling bullish signals. The MACD histogram at 2.4275 indicates growing bullish momentum, while the RSI at 48.26 sits in neutral territory with room for upward movement without entering overbought conditions.
AAVE’s position at 0.4974 within the Bollinger Bands suggests the token is trading near the middle band ($217.44), providing a balanced risk-reward setup. The price action above the 7-day SMA ($210.56) and near the 20-day SMA ($217.44) indicates short-term strength, though the distance from the 50-day SMA ($240.85) presents the first major resistance cluster.
Volume analysis shows $31.3 million in 24-hour trading activity, providing sufficient liquidity for the predicted price movements. The Average True Range (ATR) of $20.13 suggests normal volatility levels, supporting our confidence in the $246 AAVE price target.
Aave Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for AAVE
Our primary AAVE price prediction centers on a move to $246 within two weeks, representing a 13.2% gain from current levels. This target aligns with the upper portion of recent analyst forecasts and corresponds to technical resistance near the 50-day moving average zone.
For the bullish case to materialize, AAVE must break above immediate resistance at $249.00, which would trigger momentum toward the $340-$370 medium-term range identified in our Aave forecast. The path higher would likely encounter resistance at $302.19 (strong resistance level), but sustained buying pressure could push toward the 52-week high of $357.78.
Technical confirmation would come from RSI breaking above 55 and MACD signal line crossing above the histogram, providing additional momentum for the upward move.
Bearish Risk for Aave
The bearish scenario for our AAVE price prediction would activate if the token breaks below the Bollinger Band lower support at $189.13. This would represent a 13% decline and could trigger further selling toward the pivot point at $176.71.
A break below $176.71 would invalidate our bullish Aave forecast and potentially target the strong support zone at $79.51, though such a move would require significant fundamental deterioration or broader market weakness.
Key bearish signals to monitor include RSI falling below 40, MACD histogram turning negative for multiple days, and trading volume increasing on downward moves.
Should You Buy AAVE Now? Entry Strategy
Based on our AAVE technical analysis, the current price of $217.29 presents a reasonable entry point for those seeking exposure to the predicted upward move. However, more conservative traders might wait for a slight pullback to the $210-$212 range, which aligns with recent analyst predictions from CoinLore and provides better risk-adjusted entry.
For active traders considering whether to buy or sell AAVE, we recommend a scaled approach: initiate 50% of desired position at current levels, with the remainder on any dip toward $210. Place stop-losses below $189.13 to limit downside risk to approximately 13%.
Position sizing should account for AAVE’s volatility (ATR $20.13), suggesting maximum 2-3% portfolio allocation for most investors. Take-profit levels should be set at $240 (first target) and $246 (primary AAVE price target) to capture the anticipated short-term rally.
AAVE Price Prediction Conclusion
Our comprehensive analysis supports a bullish AAVE price prediction with high confidence for the $246 target within two weeks. The convergence of technical indicators, analyst forecasts, and fundamental developments creates a compelling case for upward movement.
The medium-term Aave forecast remains optimistic for the $340-$370 range, though this requires sustained momentum and broader DeFi market strength. Key indicators to monitor include the MACD histogram maintaining positive momentum and RSI remaining above 45 for trend confirmation.
Confidence Level: Medium-High for short-term $246 target, Medium for long-term $340-$370 range.
Critical validation levels include holding above $189.13 for continued bullishness and breaking $249.00 for acceleration toward higher targets. The timeline for our primary prediction spans 10-14 trading days, with potential extension to 3-4 weeks if consolidation occurs near resistance levels.
After filling the latest weekend “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market, BTC/USD took time to establish new local lows before heading higher.
The move preserved the pattern of higher lows in play since Nov. 5, and relative strength index (RSI) data hinted at a bullish divergence on the hourly chart.
BTC/USD one-hour chart with RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
“Trending up on the lower timeframe. But needs to break that $107K area. If it can do so, it would turn this into a decent deviation and retake back into the range,” trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in a response on X.
“That’s my main condition for a bullish turnaround.”
Eyeing another failed reclaim, this time of the bull market support band formed by two moving averages, trader Luca saw “further price consolidation” next.
“If the price breaks below the purple support range, I’d look to hedge part of my spot holdings to mitigate short-term downside risk, as that would likely open the door for a deeper pullback on the low-timeframes,” he told X followers alongside an explanatory chart.
BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Luca/X
Binance delivers “bullish signal” at $103,000
A more optimistic take on the day came from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
Binance users, it noted, had begun to withdraw significant amounts of BTC, potentially signalling a new “accumulation” phase.
“In early November, Binance recorded a sudden spike in Bitcoin withdrawal transactions — one of the largest surges in 2025,” contributor XWIN Research Japan wrote in one of CryptoQuant’s Quicktake blog posts.
“This movement indicates a significant shift in investor behavior and offers valuable clues about current market sentiment.”
XWIN noted that the bulk of the withdrawals coincided with BTC price hitting $103,000.
“Additionally, OTC desk activity increased during this period, indicating private transfers to custodial wallets—another sign of institutional participation,” it added.
“Overall, this spike should be viewed as a bullish signal.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
This perspective is lazy and wrong. The absence of an “altcoin season” doesn’t mean there is a lack of opportunity. It means the market is maturing.
The free-for-all token rallies of 2017 and 2021 are behind us — oversupply, poor tokenomics and retail fatigue made sure of that. Confusing the end of indiscriminate speculation with the demise of altcoins is to miss the real story. These tokens are no longer trying to compete as a currency. Instead, they’re evolving into one of the most powerful growth marketing tools we’ve ever seen.
Bitcoin isn’t the benchmark
Bitcoin will not win as the preferred monetary asset. All tokens have some non-zero monetary premium. The one most likely to gain the most significant monetary premium is the one that’s used the most as a means of payment, which is expected to be the native token that hosts the most popular Web3 applications. It’s still too early to say whether this will be Ether, SOL, or something else, but it almost certainly will not be Bitcoin.
Altcoins are shifting from speculative chips to fundamental business primitives. They’re not about replacing Bitcoin. They’re about accelerating adoption, pulling users out of Web2 silos and bootstrapping new networks faster and cheaper than any company in history.
The consequences of such an adoption will change the internet as we know it. The value of Web2 companies depends on their ability to hoard and monetize data. Once that data becomes portable, verifiable and user-controlled, the moat that sustained these monopolies starts to erode.
Over the next five years, we should expect the first year-over-year revenue declines at the Web2 giants. Google and Facebook, whose margins depend on data lock-in, are the most at risk. Apple, meanwhile, benefits regardless — whether apps are Web2 or Web3, they still run on iPhones. Amazon’s logistics moat will remain, but even there, tokenized networks could erode its dominance.
Altcoins aren’t dead. They’ve simply found their purpose as growth engines disguised as assets.
ZkTLS and verifiable data
The biggest unlock for altcoins is technical. Zero-knowledge transport layer security (zkTLS) — a mechanism for cryptographically verifying any data exchanged over HTTPS — now makes it possible to take siloed Web2 data and turn it into verifiable inputs on Web3.
That opens the floodgates for new applications. In fintech, a worker can prove their paystub onchain and immediately access a USDC loan on a debit card — no payday lender required. In advertising, influencers can tie posts to verified conversions and get paid without opaque intermediaries. Identity-driven services like ride-share drivers can port their history across platforms and earn token incentives to switch providers.
The implications go further. Remittances could bypass money transfer monopolies. Tokenized credit scores could expand financial access in emerging markets. In healthcare, patients could prove their medical records without exposing private data.
In e-commerce, verified purchase histories could unlock loyalty rewards across multiple platforms. In the infrastructure sector, projects are already utilizing tokens to construct decentralized 5G networks. Even in AI, networks are showing how tokens can coordinate global compute and data.
In every case, tokens aren’t just abstract assets, but incentives — the fuel that moves users from legacy incumbents to new challengers. In Web2, companies like Uber or DoorDash spent billions on subsidies to lure drivers and customers. Tokens enable startups to achieve the same effect with far less capital, thereby compressing the time it takes to bootstrap a two-sided marketplace.
There are already examples of this in crypto-native markets. A new exchange can “vampire attack” incumbents by rewarding traders who can prove their volumes elsewhere. Wherever data can be verified, tokens can be deployed to redirect attention and liquidity.
Now matters because of maturity
All of this is possible because the crypto tech stack has matured. In the early days, only hyper-technical founders could ship products. Now, the building blocks — databases, storage, identity layers — exist, opening the door for business-first founders to build billion-dollar companies in Web3.
That’s precisely how the internet evolved. In the 1990s, technical founders were replaced by business operators once the stack stabilized. The result wasn’t fewer companies — it was Amazon, Google and Facebook. We’re approaching the same inflection point in the crypto space.
The timing matters. The trillion-dollar advertising market is ripe for disruption. Similarly, the fintech, social media and cloud infrastructure industries are also experiencing growth. Web2 monopolies depend on hoarding user data. Web3 unlocks it. Tokens serve as the incentive layer that enables switching.
For institutions, the biggest mistake is assuming Bitcoin ETFs equal crypto exposure. Bitcoin may remain the reserve asset, but the real venture-style upside is happening in tokens that power applications. To ignore them is like ignoring the internet in 2000 because Pets.com went bust.
The risk is asymmetric. Allocate now, while the space is unpopular and valuations are reasonable, or wait until incumbents are being disrupted and pay 10 times more for the same exposure.
Either way, adoption is coming. The only question is whether you’ll participate early or arrive late.
Opinion by: Kamal Mokeddem, General Partner at Finality Capital.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Arjun Sethi, the co-CEO of major crypto exchange Kraken, criticized the United Kingdom’s crypto regulations, which he said hinder services for their customers.
In an interview with the Financial Times, Sethi said that “in the UK today, if you go to any crypto website, including Kraken’s, you see the equivalent to a cigarette box.” He suggested that the disclaimers have a significant impact on customer experience.
Sethi suggested that disclosures slow users down and that, because of the importance of speed in crypto trading, “it’s worse for customers.” He concluded that “disclosures are important […] but if there are 14 steps, it’s worse.”
The UK Financial Conduct Authority’s (FCA) updated financial promotion regime came into force in October 2023. It introduced a “cooling-off” period for first-time crypto investors and required firms to assess whether users had sufficient knowledge and experience before allowing them to trade.
Sethi said that the rules may prompt customers to avoid investing in crypto altogether, potentially leading to missed potential gains. The FCA defended the rules, noting that “some consumers may make an informed decision that investing in crypto is not right for them — that is our rules working as intended.”
Example of disclaimer from the Kraken website. Source: Kraken
Despite frustrations with the FCA, the UK appears to be moving toward a broader alignment with the United States on digital-asset oversight.
Lisa Cameron, a former UK member of Parliament and founder of the UK-US Crypto Alliance, said she believed a joint “sandbox” between the UK and the US was in development to align their crypto markets.
She came to this conclusion after discussion with US senators and regulators and expects the sandbox’s purpose to be to “iron out some of this in terms of passporting” for crypto licenses between the UK and the US.
On Monday, the Bank of England published a consultation paper proposing a regulatory framework for stablecoins. The new legislation focuses on sterling-denominated “systemic stablecoins,” which are widely used in payments, similar to the US’s GENIUS Act.
A crypto collaboration between the UK and the US is not a new phenomenon. September reports noted that Treasury authorities in the US and UK created a transatlantic task force to explore “short-to-medium term collaboration on digital assets.” Also in September, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discussed how the two nations could strengthen their coordination on crypto.
September also saw UK trade groups urge the UK government to include blockchain technology in a technology collaboration with the US program known as “Tech Bridge.” A joint letter by the organization warned that “excluding digital assets from the UK-US Tech Bridge would be a missed opportunity,” and that it “risks leaving Britain on the sidelines.”
Stablecoin supply has spiked to bear market levels, suggesting buyers could soon spark another leg up for the Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto markets, according to analysts.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin Stablecoin Supply Ratio at bear market lows signals BTC price bottom.
Rising Binance stablecoin reserves and falling BTC supply indicate a buildup of buyer liquidity.
Bitcoin’s falling wedge breakout targets previous all-time highs at $124,000.
Bitcoin liquidity signals “turning point”
Bitcoin’s stablecoin ratio is at levels that have historically marked bottoms for BTC, according to new analysis.
Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has dropped back to its “lower historical range (13) — the same zone that marked bottoms in mid-2021, and throughout 2024,” CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV wrote in a Quicktake analysis, adding:
“Each time, Bitcoin was trading quietly before staging a strong rebound.”
The low SSR suggests that stablecoin liquidity is quietly building again, potentially setting the stage for a relief rally or the final bullish leg of this cycle.
The Binance Bitcoin/Stablecoin Reserve Ratio (SRR) tells the same story.
The chart below shows that stablecoin reserves on Binance are rising, while BTC reserves are shrinking, “a pattern that, time and again, has occurred right before market recoveries,” the analyst said, adding:
“We’re witnessing a liquidity configuration that has only appeared a handful of times since 2020, and each instance marked a pivotal moment for Bitcoin’s trajectory.”
The growing stablecoin supply suggests that there is an increasing amount of sidelined capital that can be deployed into the crypto market.
Historically, this pattern tends to emerge during phases of structural capitulation or seller exhaustion, when weak hands exit and strong hands begin to accumulate quietly.
André Dragosch, the European head of research at investment company Bitwise, shared a chart showing the short-term holder seller exhaustion constant has recorded the lowest value since August 2023.
This metric reaches such levels when volatility is low, but losses realized onchain are high, signaling seller exhaustion.
The daily candle chart shows the BTC/USD pair trading within a falling wedge, after the price was rejected from the upper trendline of the pattern at $107,000.
Falling wedges are typically bullish reversal patterns, and BTC’s continued consolidation within the pattern’s trendlines suggests that the downtrend could be nearing its end.
“Bitcoin is trading in this falling wedge,” said analyst Mister Crypto in an X post on Tuesday, adding:
“The breakout is so close now.”
A daily candlestick close above $107,000 will confirm the pattern, clearing the path for Bitcoin’s rise toward the wedge’s bullish target at $124,000, representing a 19% increase from the current price. This coincides with its previous peak reached on Aug. 14.
“The Risk-Off Signal has shifted back to a low-risk regime, showing that selling pressure is easing as Bitcoin recovers,” private wealth manager Swissblock said in its latest BTC analysis, adding:
“BTC now needs to reclaim $108.5K–$110K, confirming recovery as risk stabilizes and goes to 0.”
Bitcoin risk-off signal. Source: Swissblock.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin gifts aren’t immediately taxable. The IRS treats cryptocurrency as property, so recipients generally don’t owe income tax on the gift.
Stay within the 2025 exclusion limit. You can gift up to $19,000 per person, or $38,000 for spouses splitting gifts, without triggering Form 709.
Recipients inherit the donor’s cost basis. Future taxes depend on the donor’s original purchase price, not the cryptocurrency’s value at the time of the gift.
Keep detailed records to avoid IRS issues. Document the fair market value, transaction date and wallet details to make your gift audit-proof.
Bitcoin has become a popular gift for birthdays, holidays or simply to share enthusiasm for cryptocurrency. Under US tax law, gifting Bitcoin (BTC) is not an immediate taxable event. The recipient owes no income tax, and the donor typically owes no gift tax if the gift’s value is within the annual exclusion limit.
The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) treats digital assets as property, not currency. This means Bitcoin gifts fall under the same framework as stocks or real estate. They follow property rules, require valuation at the time of transfer, and may need to be reported on Form 709 if the annual exclusion limit is exceeded.
In short, you can gift Bitcoin without creating an immediate tax obligation. However, poor documentation or misunderstanding basic rules can still cause problems later.
What counts as a gift?
A cryptocurrency gift must be a true transfer of ownership. You give up control and receive nothing in return. The 2025 annual exclusion allows up to $19,000 per recipient, or $38,000 for spouses using gift splitting, without filing Form 709. Exceeding that threshold does not automatically create a tax liability, but the form must still be filed.
Gifts between US citizen spouses are unlimited. For non-citizen spouses, the 2025 limit is about $190,000. Transfers to non-residents or certain trusts may have additional requirements.
Not every transfer qualifies as a gift under IRS rules: Only those made out of genuine generosity without expectation of repayment or services.
Paying someone’s tuition or medical bills directly is exempt from gift tax.
Moving cryptocurrency between your own wallets does not count as a gift.
Transfers labeled as “gifts” that are actually payments for services are treated as income, not generosity.
When Form 709 kicks in
Form 709, the United States Gift (and Generation-Skipping Transfer) Tax Return, is how the IRS tracks gifts that exceed the annual exclusion limit. Most people never owe gift tax, but some transfers still require filing.
You must file Form 709 if:
Your gifts to any one person exceed $19,000 in 2025, the annual exclusion amount.
You make a future-interest gift in which the recipient cannot immediately use or benefit from the asset.
You and your spouse elect to split gifts to double the exclusion, which requires both spouses to file Form 709.
You do not need to file if:
All gifts stay within the annual exclusion and qualify as present-interest transfers.
Gifts to a US citizen spouse or a qualified charity are fully excluded from filing as long as you transfer complete ownership and control.
All gifts go to qualified charities where you transfer full ownership.
Did you know? Form 709 is due by April 15 of the year after the gift. A separate form must be filed for each year, and filing doesn’t necessarily mean tax is owed. The 2025 lifetime exemption of $13.99 million typically covers most reportable gifts.
In practice, if you keep cryptocurrency gifts under the annual limit and document the fair market value on the date of transfer, you will likely avoid filing altogether.
Basis and the “dual-basis” trap for recipients
Receiving Bitcoin as a gift is not immediately taxable, but your future capital gains tax depends on the basis and holding period you inherit from the donor.
Carryover basis
You generally inherit the donor’s original cost basis and their holding period. If they bought Bitcoin for $5,000 and gifted it when it was worth $20,000, your basis would be $5,000. When you later sell, you will owe capital gains tax on the difference between your sale price and that basis.
Dual-basis rule
If the gift’s market value is lower than the donor’s basis at the time of transfer, two different bases apply:
For gains, use the donor’s original basis.
For losses, use the fair market value (FMV) at the time of the gift.
If you sell between those two values, no gain or loss is recognized.
Early Bitcoin adopters often have very low cost bases, so recipients of appreciated coins can face significant future tax liabilities. Conversely, gifts of Bitcoin worth less than the donor’s basis limit potential loss deductions. If the donor pays gift tax, part of that payment may increase the recipient’s basis.
Obtain the donor’s purchase date, cost basis, the fair market value on the gift date and whether any gift tax was paid before selling. These details determine whether your next Bitcoin sale results in a taxable gain, a deductible loss or no gain or loss.
Crypto-specific pitfalls to avoid
Most cryptocurrency gifts follow standard property rules, but digital assets introduce additional risks that can trigger audits or disqualify deductions.
1. Turning a gift into a sale
If you sell or swap cryptocurrency before transferring it, the transaction counts as a taxable disposition, not a gift. To qualify as a true gift, you must transfer the asset directly, receive nothing in return and permanently give up control.
2. Poor valuation or missing records
Always document the fair market value (FMV) on the date of transfer, along with your original cost basis, purchase date and transaction IDs. Without proper records, the IRS may challenge the reported value or the recipient’s later gain or loss calculation.
3. Gifts that are really income
If cryptocurrency is given in exchange for services to an employee, contractor or influencer, it counts as compensation, not a gift. This makes it taxable income for the recipient and may subject the sender to payroll or self-employment taxes.
4. Cross-border and non-citizen issues
International gifts or transfers involving foreign wallets may require filing Form 3520 and other disclosures. Gifts to non-US-citizen spouses are capped at about $190,000 in 2025 unlike the unlimited exclusion for US-citizen spouses.
Miss one of these rules, and a generous gesture could quickly become a taxable event.
Simple steps to prevent tax trouble
Gifting or donating cryptocurrency in 2025 can be simple if you follow a few key steps:
Stay within limits: Keep each recipient’s total gifts at or below $19,000 ($38,000 if splitting with a spouse). If you exceed that amount, file Form 709. You will likely still owe no tax unless you surpass the lifetime exemption.
Know what you’re passing on: The recipient inherits your cost basis and holding period. Their future tax bill depends on your original purchase price, not the value on the date of the gift.
Record everything: Keep records of the transfer date, fair market value, your original cost basis and acquisition date, and the wallet or transaction ID. Proper documentation protects both parties if the IRS requests verification.
Gift, don’t sell: Selling or swapping cryptocurrency before gifting makes the transfer a taxable disposition. Transfer the asset directly instead.
For charity: Donations exceeding $5,000 require a qualified appraisal, not just an exchange screenshot. Confirm that the charity can accept cryptocurrency before sending.
Watch cross-border gifts: Foreign recipients and non-citizen spouses face lower exclusions and additional reporting requirements.
Seek professional advice for large or complex transfers: High-value gifts, multi-signature wallets and trusts can create unique compliance challenges.
Before you gift Bitcoin
Most Bitcoin gifts fall safely within IRS limits, and no immediate tax is due. The risk usually arises later when the recipient sells. Because the donor’s basis carries over, gains or losses depend on that original value, not the market price at the time of gifting.
Handled properly, gifting Bitcoin is a straightforward way to share cryptocurrency wealth without tax complications. Keep detailed records, respect the thresholds and confirm that the transfer qualifies as a true gift. Generosity should not come with a surprise tax bill, and with the right steps, it will not.
