Financial technology company Omnes and financial services provider Apex Group said on Tuesday that they plan to issue a tokenized secured debt note backed by Bitcoin hashrate on Base.
The two companies announced that they would tokenize the Omnes Mining Note (OMN), an institutional-grade structured note backed by the Bitcoin (BTC) hashrate. The companies said it will be issued and managed on the Base blockchain, Coinbase’s Ethereum layer-2 network.
Apex said the note is designed to give institutional investors “direct economic exposure to new Bitcoin production measured in hashrate” without the operational burden of managing mining hardware, energy procurement and facilities.
The launch adds a new type of crypto-linked security to the tokenization market by packaging mining output into a regulated investment product that can be transferred onchain between approved investors.
Omnes CEO Emmanuel Montero said the OMN is intended to convert Bitcoin mining output into a structured financial instrument backed by large-scale mining operations. “Bitcoin mining is the only mechanism that creates new Bitcoin through protocol issuance. This is economically distinct from yield strategies that rely on redistributing existing Bitcoin,” he said.
Bitcoin mining exposure packaged into a tokenized debt note
According to the announcement, the OMN is designed to give professional investors outside of the United States economic exposure linked to mining production, using hashrate as its underlying metric. The Bitcoin hashrate is the computational power that secures the network and produces new coins.
The product essentially lets investors benefit from Bitcoin mining activity without running mining operations themselves.
Issued as a secured debt note, the product applies a traditional financial structure with blockchain-based features, including onchain transfers between approved investors.
While the product expands access to mining exposure, details on how hashrate translates into investor returns, as well as the note’s liquidity and risk profile, were not fully disclosed.
Cointelegraph reached out to Omnes and Apex Group for more information, but had not received a response by publication.
Tokenized assets climb to over $23 billion in March
The plans to tokenize Bitcoin mining exposure come amid a rise in tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) in 2026.
On March 11, DefiLlama data showed that the value of tokenized RWAs on public blockchains reached roughly $23.6 billion, up 66% year-to-date.
Onchain market cap for tokenized real-world assets (RWAs). Source: DefiLlama
At the time of writing, the onchain market capitalization for tokenized RWAs stood at around at $23 billion, according to DefiLlama.
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AI and stablecoin segments have outperformed the broader crypto market in 2026, with data pointing to continued usage growth despite declining prices elsewhere.
Key takeaways:
AI sector posts smallest loss in Q1/2026, down just 14%.
Stablecoin market cap hits a record $320 billion, with monthly transaction volumes at a record $1.8 trillion.
AI and stablecoin sectors buck the trend
Bitcoin (BTC) trades 18.5% lower in 2026, the total crypto market capitalization has slipped to $2.42 trillion, while most altcoins are lagging, as fear and uncertainty surrounding the US and Israel-Iran war and the Fed’s hawkishness grip the market.
Meanwhile, AI and stablecoin businesses continue to defy the trend, recording significant growth and strong fundamentals that highlight a rotation toward infrastructure over speculation.
For example, Circle’s USDC (USDC) supply is at $78 billion, a 220% increase since November 2023, data from Token Terminal shows.
ChatGPT’s weekly active users have also grown to 900 million in March 2026 from 85 million in November 2023, a roughly 10x increase over the same period.
USDC supply and ChatGPT WAU. Source: Token Terminal
Grayscale’s Q1/2026 report reinforces this observation, revealing that the AI sector recorded the smallest loss at 14% during the first three months of the year, compared to Consumer and Culture at 31%, Smart Contract Platforms at 21%, and Currencies at 21%.
This indicates that “investor appetite shifted away from momentum-driven and more speculative segments,” the digital-asset investment manager said, adding:
“Despite subdued overall sentiment, capital appeared to rotate toward projects with stronger fundamentals and those aligned with key themes such as AI and tokenization.”
Returns for each sector were negative in Q1/2026. Source: Grayscale
The market capitalization of AI tokens now stands at $17.4 billion, up 30% over the last 30 days. Bittensor (TAO) and NEAR Protocol (NEAR) lead the growth, with 75% and 30% price increases, respectively, over the same period
Market capitalization of top AI and big data tokens. Source: CoinMarketCap
Similarly, stablecoins continue to grow, with the total market capitalization hitting a record $320 billion on March 23. Tether’s USDt (USDT) maintains dominance around $184 billion, representing 57% of the total stablecoin supply.
Monthly transaction volumes hit a record $1.8 trillion in February, rivaling traditional payment rails. USDC led supply growth with an 80% month-to-month increase to a $1.26 trillion all-time high last month.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a stable value, typically pegged to fiat currencies like the US dollar, and can be hosted on multiple blockchains.
In a bear market, stablecoins serve as buying power and settlement rails, dominating trading pairs, supporting tokenized real-world assets, and enabling yield-bearing products.
Ethereum and other chains see high transfer volumes, while institutional products from banks and fintechs integrate them for yield and treasury management. This infrastructural role persists even as speculative assets bleed.
“Structural tailwinds” drive growth convergence
The two sectors thrive because they deliver measurable value even after speculation fades.
“AI labs and stablecoin issuers are among the businesses with the strongest structural tailwinds of the 2020s,” Token Terminal said.
They sit at the “intersection of three distinct forces: technology, finance, and geopolitics,” with each of these drivers independently driving demand for these sectors, the crypto data provider said, adding:
“AI drives productivity and defense capabilities, while stablecoins provide financial infrastructure for global dollar distribution.”
In an X post on Monday, Crypto trader Mando CT said AI and stablecoins are among the four dominant sectors in 2026.
Explaining the convergence, the trader said that AI needs instant and low-fees payment systems to operate, while stablecoins are the “internet money” needed to make this happen.
“These trends are connected,” Mando CT said, adding:
“2026 isn’t just another cycle. It’s the transition from: Speculation to Infrastructure.”
Cointelegraph reported that stablecoins could benefit from AI-driven payments by enabling easy, automatic, and rule-based transactions between entities, further driving long-term growth for both sectors.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
NVIDIA’s new open-source OpenShell runtime creates isolated sandboxes for AI agents, partnering with Cisco, CrowdStrike, and Microsoft on enterprise security.
NVIDIA has released OpenShell, an open-source runtime designed to lock down autonomous AI agents through kernel-level isolation and policy enforcement. The Apache 2.0-licensed tool addresses a growing problem: AI agents that can read files, execute code, and modify systems also represent significant security liabilities.
The core innovation here is separating what an agent wants to do from what it’s allowed to do. OpenShell sits between the AI and the operating system, using Linux Landlock LSM to create sandboxed environments where agents operate under strict constraints they cannot override—even if compromised.
How It Actually Works
Think of it like browser tabs for AI agents. Each agent runs in its own isolated session with controlled resources and verified permissions. Security policies are defined in YAML or JSON files at the system level, governing access down to specific binaries, network endpoints, and file paths.
The runtime also intercepts model API calls, letting organizations route inference traffic to private backends without touching the agent’s code. This handles both security and cost control in one layer.
What makes OpenShell practical for enterprise adoption: it’s agent-agnostic. It works with Claude Code, OpenAI’s Codex, and Cursor out of the box. No SDK rewrites required.
The Partner Ecosystem
NVIDIA isn’t going solo on this. The company has lined up Cisco, CrowdStrike, Google Cloud, Microsoft Security, and TrendAI to align runtime policy management across enterprise stacks. That’s a serious coalition for what’s essentially infrastructure-level AI governance.
Alongside OpenShell, NVIDIA released NemoClaw—a reference stack for building personal AI assistants that bundles OpenShell with Nemotron models. It runs on everything from GeForce RTX laptops to DGX Station supercomputers, giving developers a template for self-evolving agents with customizable security guardrails.
Why This Matters Now
Autonomous agents represent a genuine inflection point in enterprise AI risk. These systems don’t just generate text—they execute workflows, write code, and continuously improve their own capabilities. Traditional prompt-based safety measures fall apart when agents can potentially override them.
OpenShell’s approach of enforcing constraints at the infrastructure layer rather than the application layer addresses this directly. The agent literally cannot leak credentials or access restricted files because the sandbox prevents it, regardless of what the model tries to do.
Both OpenShell and NemoClaw remain in early preview. Developers can access ready-to-use environments on NVIDIA Brev or grab the code from GitHub. For enterprises scaling autonomous AI deployments, this represents the first serious attempt at standardized security controls—though real-world testing will determine whether the sandbox holds up under adversarial conditions.
Crypto investment products maintained their inflow streak last week but momentum slowed amid ongoing Middle East tensions and a “hawkish pause” interpretation of the US Fed’s meeting.
Crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) recorded $230 million in inflows last week, with $405 million in outflows following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in the US, CoinShares reported Monday.
CoinShares head of research James Butterfill largely attributed the slowdown to the market’s “hawkish pause” interpretation of the US Federal Reserve’s Wednesday meeting, rather than broader geopolitical tensions.
“The intra-week data supports this,” Butterfill said, referring to strong inflows in the first two days of the week before reversing sharply in the wake of the FOMC meeting.
Bitcoin funds lead inflows, while Ether reverses
Bitcoin (BTC) accounted for nearly all of last week’s crypto ETP inflows, posting $219.2 million in gains. Ether (ETH) funds saw $27.5 million in outflows, ending a three-week inflow streak.
Solana (SOL) saw $17 million in inflows for the seventh straight week, bringing the total to $136 million and making it one of the most popular ETP assets in recent months.
Crypto ETP flows by asset (in millions of US dollars). Source: CoinShares
Additionally, notable gains came from Chainlink (LINK) and Hyperliquid (HYPE), with inflows netting $4.6 million and $4.5 million, respectively.
Crypto ETPs have clocked $1.4 billion of inflows year-to-date, with Bitcoin ETPs leading at $1.2 billion. Total assets under management stand at $138 billion, according to CoinShares.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs account for 43% of gains
About half of Bitcoin ETP inflows were driven by the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) last week, which ended the week with $95.2 million in inflows.
The inflows marked four consecutive weeks of gains totaling $2.2 billion, according to SoSoValue data. Despite the gains, spot Bitcoin ETFs remain underwater year-to-date, with roughly $400 million in outflows.
Weekly flows in spot Bitcoin ETFs since February. Source: SoSoValue
Similar to broader investment products, US spot Ether ETFs failed to maintain the inflow streak after three weeks of inflows, with last week’s outflows totaling around $60 million.
The US spot Ether ETFs have seen $599 million in outflows year-to-date, while broader ETPs were roughly $50 million underwater.
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
Bitcoin moved back above $71,000 after US President Donald Trump postponed Iran strike for five days, sending oil price crashing below $100.
Bitcoin (BTC) broke back toward $71,000 during Monday’s European trading session as US President Donald Trump said attacks on Iran’s power infrastructure would be postponed.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin bounces 5% to $71,000 after President Trump said US attacks on Iran’s infrastructure would be postponed.
$270 million in short positions were liquidated in an hour.
Focus now shifts to $72,000–$75,000 liquidity zones to see if BTC price will rise further to grab these.
Bitcoin erases weekend losses with 5% rebound
Data from TradingView showed BTC price rose as much as 4.7% within 60 minutes to an intraday high of $71,500, recouping all the losses made over the last three days. The last time BTC/USD traded above $71,000 was on March 19.
The price reacted to President Trump’s announcement of a five-day pause on planned US military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure after “very good and productive” discussions with Tehran.
Source: TruthSocial/Donald J. Trump
“And this shall henceforth be known as the ‘TACO PUMP,’” Coinbureau CEO Nic Puckrin said in response to Bitcoin’s reaction following the news.
The move in Bitcoin was accompanied by $270 million in short liquidations within an hour, with BTC short liquidations accounting for $120 million.
This brought the total liquidations across the crypto market over the last 24 hours to $781 million.
Crypto liquidations. Source: CoinGlass
Gold erased almost all its earlier losses, now down just 1% on the day and rebounding to $4,440 per ounce, while the dollar index (DXY) has slipped to 99.3.
Oil, a key macro risk factor, dropped as much as 16% to $92 from an intraday high of $110, while WTI crude dropped below $85 — the steepest single-day decline since late 2025.
CFDs on WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
However, Iranian officials quickly denied the reports of substantive productive talks, insisting no meaningful concessions had been made and reiterating demands for a complete halt to US and Israeli actions before any broader resolution.
Bitcoin price fills CME gap at $70,000
Bitcoin started the week with a significant CME gap around $70,000. This gap has now been filled with the latest price rise. Traders will now focus on the next one near the $80,000 region.
Source: Bitcoinsensus
Meanwhile, the liquidation heatmap showed BTC price eating away ask orders below $72,000. A close above this level would push the BTC/USD pair toward $75,000, where the next major liquidity cluster sits.
Bitcoin liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass
On the downside, “the $64K-$65K region is interesting,” analyst Daan Crypto Trades said, adding:
“Currently there’s a lot of fear for the latter which is why most markets have been selling off a lot the past few trading days.“
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
This $3.4 million scam shows how modern crypto fraud increasingly relies on social engineering rather than technical exploits.
Scammers used a gradual grooming process, engaging victims in friendly conversations over time to build emotional trust before introducing any financial discussion. It closely resembled the pig-butchering model.
The investment pitch combined Ether’s growth potential with the perceived stability of gold. This created a compelling but fraudulent narrative that convinced victims they were gaining access to an exclusive, low-risk opportunity.
Victims were told to buy Ether themselves on legitimate platforms and transfer it to provided wallets. This gave them a false sense of control and legitimacy.
This scam did not begin with a phishing link or hacked wallet. It started with a simple message: “Sorry, wrong number.”
According to US prosecutors, the interaction evolved into a social engineering scheme that defrauded victims of millions and led to the seizure of $3.4 million in USDt (USDT).
From innocent messages to multimillion-dollar fraud
Federal prosecutors in Boston have initiated a civil forfeiture proceeding to recover approximately $3.44 million in USDt linked to a suspected online investment fraud.
According to authorities, the funds were seized in early 2025 as part of an investigation launched in late 2024 after complaints from victims in multiple US states who reported significant financial losses.
The operation did not involve sophisticated technical exploits. Instead, it relied on a well-known yet remarkably effective tactic: social engineering. Fraudsters used ordinary, everyday interactions to deceive unsuspecting victims.
Victims received texts or chat messages that appeared to have been sent by mistake. Fraudsters used apps like WhatsApp and Telegram to send these messages.
On the surface, the communication appeared completely ordinary. There was no pressure, no immediate request and no clear warning signs.
This lack of an obvious threat is one reason the method can be so effective.
Unlike crypto scams that trigger immediate suspicion, the “wrong number” approach:
Appears natural and socially appropriate
Encourages polite replies
Creates an opportunity for ongoing dialogue
In this case, as in similar ones, what begins as an apparent mistake soon evolves into an opening for further contact.
The grooming stage: Gradually establishing trust
Following the initial exchange, scammers avoid rushing the process. They cultivate trust gradually through friendly conversations, the sharing of seemingly personal information and the maintenance of a consistent, reliable persona.
Rather than introducing financial topics too early, the scammers:
Create a sense of emotional ease
Make regular communication feel normal
Foster the appearance of a genuine personal connection
This strategy aligns with a broader category of fraud commonly known as pig-butchering, in which victims are methodically “groomed” before being targeted for financial gain.
By the time money becomes part of the discussion, victims often believe they are interacting with someone familiar rather than an unknown fraudster.
Did you know? The “wrong number” scam technique evolved from earlier email scams in which fraudsters pretended to contact the wrong person. Messaging apps have made this tactic more effective by enabling real-time, casual conversations that feel more authentic.
The pitch: A fake Ether investment tied to gold
After building initial trust, scammers subtly shifted the discussion toward lucrative investment opportunities. Victims were presented with what appeared to be a privileged Ether (ETH) investment opportunity, supposedly tied to tangible gold holdings.
This pairing appears to have been deliberate.
It merged:
Together, these elements created an attractive narrative: the promise of substantial returns while minimizing perceived risk.
Victims were told they were being given access to a rare, exclusive opportunity that was not available to the general public.
The transaction method: Why victims purchased Ether
Instead of requesting direct transfers, the fraudsters instructed victims to:
Buy Ether through established, legitimate exchanges
This approach had a significant psychological impact.
Victims felt reassured because they:
Conducted transactions on genuine, well-known platforms
Personally handled and authorized the purchase
Could observe and verify the funds in their own wallets before the transfer
As a result, the process never felt like directly giving money to fraudsters. Instead, it appeared to be genuine participation in a legitimate investment opportunity.
Did you know? In many fraud cases, scammers appear to operate in organized groups using scripted playbooks. Some teams specialize only in the “conversation phase,” while others handle crypto transactions, showing how modern fraud has become structured like a business operation.
What occurred after the Ether transfer
After victims sent their Ether to fraudsters:
The funds were routed through various intermediary wallet addresses
Finally, the stablecoins were transferred to unhosted wallets controlled by the perpetrators
This sequence was designed to:
Conceal the transaction path
Disconnect the funds from their original source
Significantly complicate efforts to recover them
Nevertheless, blockchain records, combined with investigative tools, helped authorities trace the money trail. The process ultimately resulted in the seizure of assets.
Part of a larger fraud pattern
This prosecution fits into a broader wave of cryptocurrency-related fraud cases. Authorities across the US have taken action against pig-butchering frauds and romance scams. They have also launched crackdowns on laundering operations involving stablecoins.
Across these incidents, common traits appear:
Initial outreach through social media, dating apps or informal platforms
A slow, deliberate process of cultivating trust
A pivot toward cryptocurrency “investment” opportunities
Fund transfers through layered transactions
While the specific methods and technologies may vary, the intent and strategy remain consistent.
Did you know? Crypto scams often use multiple blockchains to move funds, not just one. After converting assets into stablecoins, scammers may bridge them across networks to make tracking and recovery efforts even more difficult.
Why this scam proved effective
The core reason these schemes succeed is that they are rooted in psychology rather than in any technological flaw.
The perpetrators did not exploit vulnerabilities in the system itself. Instead, they targeted and manipulated predictable patterns of human behavior.
Several critical psychological elements contributed:
Politeness bias: Individuals tend to reply politely even to messages that appear accidental.
Trust formation: Consistent, repeated contact creates a growing sense of familiarity and comfort.
Perceived control: Victims personally handled the purchase and transfer of funds.
Credibility: Linking the high-growth promise of cryptocurrency with the time-tested stability of gold gave the proposal greater believability.
By the time the fraud unraveled, the victim had already become deeply committed both emotionally and financially.
The legal response: Moving from seizure to permanent forfeiture
The US government initiated a civil forfeiture proceeding to recover the seized assets.
Through this legal mechanism, authorities are able to:
Assert ownership over property suspected of being linked to criminal conduct
Obtain judicial authorization for the permanent forfeiture of those assets
Allow victims or other third parties an opportunity to file legitimate claims to the property
Unlike criminal prosecutions, civil forfeiture proceedings focus on the assets themselves and do not necessarily require a criminal conviction to move forward.
Warning signs to recognize
Scams of this nature tend to follow well-established patterns. Important red flags to watch for include:
Unsolicited messages claiming to have been sent in error
The rapid development of rapport and trust by previously unknown individuals
Discussions that gradually shift toward investment suggestions
Promises of exclusive access or guaranteed high returns in cryptocurrency
Instructions to send funds or cryptocurrency to external wallet addresses
Any investment proposal that arises from a random conversation should be approached with the highest level of skepticism.
What to do if you receive similar messages
If you receive an unsolicited message about a lucrative crypto investment, you should:
Refrain from responding to or engaging with unfamiliar contacts
Resist the urge to continue the conversation simply to be polite
Never transfer money or cryptocurrency to wallet addresses provided by strangers
Immediately block and report suspicious phone numbers, accounts or profiles
Promptly notify law enforcement and the relevant platforms or exchanges if any funds have already been sent
Prompt action can sometimes improve the chances of authorities tracing the funds or freezing them.
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Arkham data shows a wallet cluster holding 644 million SIREN, about 88% of the 728 million circulating supply, raising manipulation concerns.
Crypto token Siren surged 340% in the last week, amid claims that a large portion of the circulating supply may be concentrated among a small group of wallets.
Siren markets itself as the “first AI analyst agent deployed on BNB Chain.” At the time of writing, CoinGecko data shows SIREN trading at $2.81, up over 340% from $0.63 on March 16. In the past month, the token exploded by nearly 1,300% from $0.22. The rally drew scrutiny after analysts said a large share of the token’s supply may be concentrated in a small group of wallets, a dynamic that could amplify volatility if confirmed.
Citing an unverified custom entity created by Arkham Intelligence, onchain analyst EmberCN said the party cornered nearly all spot supply to profit off contracts. He said this was the secret behind the token’s surge in the past month.
According to the Arkham Intelligence page, the entity holds 644 million SIREN (worth around $1.8 billion). The amount accounts for 88% of the entire circulating supply of 728 million tokens.
Unverified entity holding 644 million SIREN tokens. Source: Arkham Intelligence
Crypto analysts point to wallet clustering
On X, pseudonymous crypto analyst Mlmabc warned his followers on Sunday to be careful trading the token, adding that “supply is heavily cornered.” Mlmabc said a cluster of wallets is currently sitting on $950 million in unrealized profit, implying that it could dump the tokens on potential buyers.
Citing his own Dune Analytics dashboard, Bitcoin Strategy analyst Gerhard Kuschnik said most of the Siren token trading activity over the last month, when SIREN surged, was not from new users. Kuschnik said these were trading activities by existing holders, arguing that the token is not gaining new interest.
“The vast majority of trading happens by returning users,” adding that the average new user that bought into the token during its surge averaged between 100 and 200.
Siren’s users per day chart in the past month. Source: Gerhard Kuschnik
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
While specific analyst predictions are limited for the current period, on-chain metrics suggest AAVE is approaching oversold territory. According to technical data from major exchanges, the token has declined 2.49% in the past 24 hours, bringing it closer to significant support levels that could attract buyers.
Market data indicates trading volume remains healthy at over $4.2 million on Binance alone, suggesting continued institutional and retail interest despite the recent pullback.
AAVE Technical Analysis Breakdown
AAVE’s current technical picture presents a mixed but potentially bullish setup. Trading at $105.48, the token sits well below all major moving averages, indicating a clear downtrend that may be nearing exhaustion.
The RSI reading of 39.66 places AAVE in neutral territory but approaching oversold conditions, historically a zone where bounces occur. The MACD histogram at 0.0000 shows bearish momentum is stalling, though it hasn’t yet turned positive.
Bollinger Bands analysis reveals AAVE trading at just 0.14 position between the bands, extremely close to the lower band at $102.90. This positioning often precedes mean reversion moves toward the middle band at $111.93.
Key support emerges at $102.91, aligning closely with the Bollinger lower band, while immediate resistance sits at $107.50 and stronger resistance at $109.51.
Aave Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
If AAVE can reclaim the $107.50 level with volume, the path opens toward $109.51 resistance. A break above this level would target the 7-day SMA at $111.15, representing a 5% gain from current levels.
The ultimate bullish target remains the 50-day SMA at $115.33, which would require sustained buying pressure and broader DeFi sector strength. This Aave forecast represents approximately 9% upside potential.
Bearish Scenario
Failure to hold the critical $102.91 support could trigger further selling toward psychological support at $100. Below this level, AAVE price prediction models suggest a potential test of $95-$98 range, representing 10-15% downside risk.
The concerning factor remains the significant gap between current price and the 200-day SMA at $186.29, indicating the longer-term trend remains decidedly bearish.
Should You Buy AAVE? Entry Strategy
Current levels present a reasonable risk-reward setup for traders comfortable with DeFi exposure. Consider scaled entries between $103-$105, with a stop-loss below $102 to limit downside risk.
For conservative investors, waiting for a clear break above $109.51 with volume confirmation would provide better risk-adjusted entry, albeit with reduced upside potential.
Position sizing should remain modest given the overall bearish trend across longer timeframes.
Conclusion
This AAVE price prediction suggests a tactical bounce opportunity exists from current oversold levels, with initial targets around $109-$111 representing reasonable short-term objectives. However, any sustained bullish case requires reclaiming the 50-day SMA at $115.33.
The technical setup favors a relief rally over the next 1-2 weeks, though investors should remain cautious of the broader bearish trend. Risk management remains paramount in this volatile environment.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before investing.
Bitcoin (BTC) erased much of its US-Iran war-driven gains this week, moving back in sync with the broader downtrend in risk assets, mainly US equities.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s positive flip in S&P 500 correlation has historically preceded average declines of around 50% since 2018.
BTC is exposed to a broader risk-asset sell-off due to rising macro pressure.
As of Sunday, BTC/USD had fallen 5.65% week-to-date to about $68,700, while the S&P 500 (SPX) closed the week down 1.90%.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView
That renewed correlation is now signaling a greater risk of further downside in the Bitcoin market.
BTC drops 50% on average when it starts following stocks
The bearish warning for Bitcoin comes from a weekly correlation metric comparing BTC and the S&P 500 (SPX), the US equity benchmark index.
As of Saturday, the 20-week rolling correlation between BTC and SPX was 0.13, up from its recent nadir of around -0.5.
BTC/USD weekly chart ft correlation coefficient with SPX. Source: TradingView
Since 2018, such sharp recoveries in BTC-SPX correlation have been preceding broader Bitcoin market declines, averaging at about -50%.
“It is a warning sign that the stock market is going to collapse and take BTC with it,” said analyst Tony Severino.
In 2020 and 2022, Bitcoin’s declines lagged by several months, unfolding after classic “bull traps” in which BTC rallied alongside rising SPX correlation before reversing and wiping out those gains.
Bitcoin’s renewed correlation with equities is also coinciding with a pause in corporate accumulation.
Strategy (MSTR), one of the largest Bitcoin holders, hasn’t bought BTC via the sales of its STRC preferred stock this week, according to data resource STRC.LIVE.
Strategy’s BTC purchase in the week ending March 22. Source: STRC.LIVE
Strategy’s STRC-fueled buying helped support Bitcoin’s rally during the US–Iran war. With no fresh purchases this week, BTC is more exposed to the potential sell-off in stocks.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Bitcoin (BTC) erased much of its US-Iran war-driven gains this week, moving back in sync with the broader downtrend in risk assets, mainly US equities.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s positive flip in S&P 500 correlation has historically preceded average declines of around 50% since 2018.
BTC is exposed to a broader risk-asset sell-off due to rising macro pressure.
As of Sunday, BTC/USD had fallen 5.65% week-to-date to about $68,700, while the S&P 500 (SPX) closed the week down 1.90%.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView
That renewed correlation is now signaling a greater risk of further downside in the Bitcoin market.
BTC drops 50% on average when it starts following stocks
The bearish warning for Bitcoin comes from a weekly correlation metric comparing BTC and the S&P 500 (SPX), the US equity benchmark index.
As of Saturday, the 20-week rolling correlation between BTC and SPX was 0.13, up from its recent nadir of around -0.5.
BTC/USD weekly chart ft correlation coefficient with SPX. Source: TradingView
Since 2018, such sharp recoveries in BTC-SPX correlation have been preceding broader Bitcoin market declines, averaging at about -50%.
“It is a warning sign that the stock market is going to collapse and take BTC with it,” said analyst Tony Severino.
In 2020 and 2022, Bitcoin’s declines lagged by several months, unfolding after classic “bull traps” in which BTC rallied alongside rising SPX correlation before reversing and wiping out those gains.
Bitcoin’s renewed correlation with equities is also coinciding with a pause in corporate accumulation.
Strategy (MSTR), one of the largest Bitcoin holders, hasn’t bought BTC via the sales of its STRC preferred stock this week, according to data resource STRC.LIVE.
Strategy’s BTC purchase in the week ending March 22. Source: STRC.LIVE
Strategy’s STRC-fueled buying helped support Bitcoin’s rally during the US–Iran war. With no fresh purchases this week, BTC is more exposed to the potential sell-off in stocks.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
