LDO price prediction suggests upside to $0.75-$0.85 range within 30 days as MACD histogram turns bullish and oversold conditions create recovery opportunity from current $0.56 level.
LDO Price Prediction: Technical Recovery Points to $0.75-$0.85 Target
Lido DAO (LDO) is showing early signs of technical recovery after touching its 52-week low of $0.51, with multiple indicators suggesting a potential bounce toward the $0.75-$0.85 range over the next month. This LDO price prediction is based on bullish momentum signals emerging in key technical indicators and analyst consensus pointing to oversold bounce potential.
LDO Price Prediction Summary
• LDO short-term target (1 week): $0.66 (+17.9% from current $0.56)
• Lido DAO medium-term forecast (1 month): $0.75-$0.85 range (+34% to +52% upside)
• Key level to break for bullish continuation: $0.66 (immediate resistance)
• Critical support if bearish: $0.49 (strong support confluence)
Recent Lido DAO Price Predictions from Analysts
The analyst community shows moderate bullish consensus on LDO’s near-term prospects. Blockchain.News has issued two recent forecasts, with their latest LDO price prediction targeting $0.75-$0.85 for the medium term, citing positive MACD histogram and bullish momentum indicators. This represents the most optimistic view among recent predictions.
DigitalCoinPrice offers an even more aggressive short-term outlook with their Lido DAO forecast suggesting $0.88, implying a potential 65.25% increase by month-end. However, MEXC provides a more conservative perspective with a LDO price target of just $0.5352, based on modest 5% annual growth expectations.
The range of predictions from $0.5352 to $0.88 reflects uncertainty in the current market environment, but the technical setup appears to favor the more optimistic scenarios.
LDO Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Bullish Reversal
The Lido DAO technical analysis reveals several encouraging signals for bulls. The MACD histogram has turned positive at 0.0054, marking the first bullish momentum reading in recent sessions. While the main MACD line remains negative at -0.0317, the improving histogram suggests underlying momentum is shifting.
LDO’s current position within the Bollinger Bands at 0.44 indicates the token is trading in the lower half of its recent range, with room to move toward the upper band at $0.63. The 7-day SMA at $0.54 is beginning to flatten after a prolonged downtrend, while price has moved above this short-term average.
Trading volume of $3.83 million on Binance provides adequate liquidity for the anticipated move, though volume confirmation will be crucial for sustaining any breakout above the $0.66 resistance level.
Lido DAO Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for LDO
The primary bullish scenario for this LDO price prediction centers on breaking above $0.66, which represents both immediate resistance and the convergence of the 20-day SMA at $0.57. A sustained break above this level opens the path to $0.75, where the token previously found support during its decline from higher levels.
The ultimate LDO price target in the bullish case reaches $0.85, representing a 52% gain from current levels. This target aligns with the 50-day SMA at $0.65 and historical support/resistance zones. For this scenario to unfold, LDO needs to maintain momentum above $0.66 and see RSI climb above 50 to confirm the bullish shift.
Bearish Risk for Lido DAO
The bearish scenario becomes active if LDO fails to hold the critical $0.49 support level, which has served as both immediate and strong support. A break below this level could trigger further selling toward the 52-week low of $0.51, with limited technical support until the psychological $0.40 level.
Key risk factors include Bitcoin weakness that could drag altcoins lower, failure of the MACD histogram to sustain positive readings, and inability to generate sufficient volume to break resistance levels.
Should You Buy LDO Now? Entry Strategy
Based on this Lido DAO technical analysis, the current risk-reward setup favors controlled accumulation. The optimal buy or sell LDO strategy suggests entering positions in the $0.54-$0.56 range, with a tight stop-loss at $0.48 to limit downside risk.
For aggressive traders, a breakout entry above $0.66 offers better confirmation but reduces the risk-reward ratio. Conservative investors might wait for a retest of the $0.49 support level for maximum upside potential.
Position sizing should remain modest given the 63.88% distance from 52-week highs, suggesting LDO remains in a long-term downtrend despite short-term recovery prospects.
LDO Price Prediction Conclusion
This LDO price prediction maintains a MEDIUM confidence level for reaching the $0.75-$0.85 target within 30 days, contingent on breaking above $0.66 resistance. The bullish MACD histogram and oversold positioning support the Lido DAO forecast, though broader market conditions remain a significant variable.
Key indicators to monitor for confirmation include sustained MACD histogram readings above zero, RSI moving above 50, and daily closes above $0.66. Invalidation of this prediction would occur on a break below $0.49 support with volume confirmation.
The timeline for this prediction extends through January 2026, with the initial $0.66 target expected within 7-10 days if momentum continues building from current levels.
HBAR price prediction shows modest upside to $0.1160 in the next 24-48 hours, with Hedera forecast suggesting limited momentum as price trades near critical support.
HBAR Price Prediction Summary
• HBAR short-term target (1 week): $0.1160 (+5.45% from current $0.11)
• Hedera medium-term forecast (1 month): $0.1145-$0.14 range with high volatility expected
• Key level to break for bullish continuation: $0.12 (SMA 20 resistance)
• Critical support if bearish: $0.10 (Bollinger Band lower bound and strong support)
Recent Hedera Price Predictions from Analysts
The latest HBAR price prediction consensus from major platforms shows cautiously optimistic targets for the immediate term. Bitget’s analysis projects HBAR price target of $0.1145 by December 25, 2025, based on a conservative daily growth rate of 0.014%. Meanwhile, Blockchain.News offers a slightly more bullish Hedera forecast with a target of $0.1160 by December 26, 2025.
The most significant divergence appears in long-term projections, with Coinbase’s HBAR price prediction extending to $0.14 by 2026, suggesting a gradual 27% appreciation over the next year. This consensus indicates that while analysts expect modest short-term gains, the overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic rather than aggressively bullish.
What’s notable is the tight clustering of short-term predictions between $0.1145-$0.1160, suggesting limited volatility expectations despite HBAR’s historical price swings.
HBAR Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Cautious Recovery
The Hedera technical analysis reveals a mixed picture with several concerning signals that temper bullish expectations. HBAR currently trades at $0.11, precisely at the pivot point level, indicating a critical decision zone for the token’s next directional move.
The RSI reading of 36.38 sits in neutral territory but leans toward oversold conditions, which typically suggests potential for a bounce. However, this is contradicted by the moving average structure, where HBAR trades significantly below all major moving averages – 8% below the SMA 20 ($0.12), 27% below SMA 50 ($0.14), and a concerning 42% below the SMA 200 ($0.19).
The MACD histogram showing a positive 0.0005 reading provides the only clear bullish signal, suggesting that downward momentum is beginning to slow. The Bollinger Bands position at 0.2879 indicates HBAR is trading in the lower portion of its recent range, which historically has provided support for rebounds.
Trading volume of $6.65 million on Binance represents moderate activity but lacks the conviction needed for a strong directional move.
Hedera Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for HBAR
The primary HBAR price target in a bullish scenario is $0.1160, representing a 5.45% gain that aligns with analyst consensus. This target is technically justified by the distance to the next Fibonacci retracement level and recent resistance points.
For this scenario to unfold, HBAR needs to break above the immediate resistance at $0.12 (SMA 20) with sustained volume. A successful break would likely target the Bollinger Band upper bound at $0.14, which coincides with the SMA 50 and represents a logical profit-taking zone for short-term traders.
The bullish case is supported by the oversold RSI conditions and the positive MACD histogram, suggesting that selling pressure is diminishing.
Bearish Risk for Hedera
The downside Hedera forecast presents significant risk if the $0.11 pivot point fails to hold. The immediate target in a bearish scenario would be $0.10, which represents both the Bollinger Band lower bound and the 52-week low support level.
A break below $0.10 would be particularly concerning as it would establish new lows and potentially trigger additional selling pressure. The fact that HBAR trades 61.94% below its 52-week high of $0.29 indicates substantial weakness that could continue if broader market conditions deteriorate.
Risk factors include the overall weak positioning below all moving averages and the potential for volume to decrease during the holiday period, which could amplify any negative moves.
Should You Buy HBAR Now? Entry Strategy
The current technical setup suggests a buy or sell HBAR decision hinges on risk tolerance and time horizon. For aggressive traders, the current level near $0.11 offers a reasonable risk-reward setup with a tight stop-loss at $0.10.
Entry Strategy:
– Conservative entry: Wait for a break above $0.12 with volume confirmation
– Aggressive entry: Current levels around $0.11 with strict risk management
– Stop-loss: $0.0995 (below the 52-week low for cushion)
– Take-profit targets: $0.1160 (short-term), $0.14 (extended target)
Position sizing should remain conservative given the mixed technical picture and holiday trading conditions that could amplify volatility in either direction.
HBAR Price Prediction Conclusion
The HBAR price prediction for the next week points to modest upside potential targeting $0.1160, with medium confidence based on analyst consensus and oversold technical conditions. However, the Hedera forecast remains constrained by significant overhead resistance and weak longer-term trend structure.
Key indicators to monitor include RSI movement above 40 for confirmation of momentum shift, MACD line crossing above the signal line, and most importantly, a sustained break above the $0.12 resistance level with volume.
The prediction timeline suggests potential movement toward $0.1160 within 24-48 hours, but traders should remain cautious of the $0.10 support level, as a break below could invalidate the bullish thesis and trigger further downside toward new lows.
Confidence Level: MEDIUM – Technical indicators show mixed signals with modest bullish bias supported by oversold conditions and analyst consensus.
Bitcoin’s failure to sustain above $90,000 indicates a negative sentiment, where rallies are being sold into.
Several major altcoins threaten to break below their recent lows.
Bitcoin (BTC) has dipped back below $87,000, indicating a lack of demand at higher levels. Glassnode said in a post on X that the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of net flows into BTC and ETH exchange-traded funds has turned negative, signaling:
“a phase of muted participation and partial disengagement from institutional allocators.”
Along with institutional investors, participation by retail and short-term traders has also decreased. CryptoQuant data shows that the 30-day SMA of active addresses has declined to 807,000, its lowest level in the past year.
In addition, the 30-day SMA of Binance depositing and withdrawing addresses shows a drop to annual lows, indicating a market stalemate.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView
BTC neither saw a blow-off top in 2025 nor a sharp 70% or 80% drawdown. Entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano said in an interview on CNBC that some investors are disappointed that BTC did not soar to $150,000 or higher. However, they have to remember that BTC is up 300% in three years.
What are the crucial support levels to watch out for in BTC and major altcoins? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price prediction
Buyers pushed the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($88,850) on Monday, but the long wick on the candlestick shows selling at higher levels.
The bears will attempt to pull the price to the crucial support at $84,000, which is likely to attract buyers. If Bitcoin’s price turns up from $84,000 and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it suggests a possible range formation in the near term. The BTC/USDT pair could swing from $84,000 to $94,589 for some time.
On the contrary, if the price breaks below $84,000, it signals the resumption of the downmove. The pair could drop to $80,600 and eventually to the vital support at $74,508.
Ether price prediction
Ether (ETH) pierced the 20-day EMA ($3,010) on Monday, but the bulls could not clear the 50-day SMA ($3,088) resistance.
The bears are attempting to seize control by pulling the Ether price below the support line of the symmetrical triangle pattern. If they succeed, the ETH/USDT pair could slump to $2,623 and then to $2,373.
Conversely, if the price turns up sharply from the support line and breaks above the moving averages, it suggests that the pair could remain inside the triangle for some more time. Buyers will be back in the game after ETH price closes above the resistance line.
BNB price prediction
BNB (BNB) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($865) on Monday, indicating selling on minor rallies.
The BNB/USDT pair risks falling below the uptrend line. If that happens, the BNB price could tumble to the $790 level. This is a crucial level for the bulls to defend, as a break below $790 may sink the pair to $730.
On the contrary, if the price bounces from the uptrend line or the $790 level and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it suggests that the pair may rally to $928. A close above $928 opens the doors for a rally to $1,019, signalling that the corrective phase may be over.
XRP price prediction
XRP (XRP) resumed its slide toward the support line of the descending channel pattern, indicating that the bears are in command.
The bulls are expected to aggressively defend the $1.61 level, but if the bears prevail, the XRP/USDT pair could nosedive toward the Oct. 10 low of $1.25.
Instead, if the price turns up from the support line and breaks above the moving averages, it suggests that the pair may remain inside the channel for a while longer.
The bulls will be back in the driver’s seat on a close above the downtrend line. The pair could then rally toward $3.10.
Solana price prediction
Solana’s (SOL) failure to climb above the 20-day EMA ($128) indicates that every relief rally is being sold into.
The SOL/USDT pair risks breaking below the $116 level. If that happens, the Solana price could plummet to $108 and eventually to the critical support at $95, where the buyers are expected to step in.
On the upside, the bulls will have to push the price above the moving averages to signal strength. A short-term trend change will be indicated after the pair ascends above the $147 resistance. The pair could then march toward $172.
Dogecoin price prediction
Dogecoin (DOGE) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($0.13) on Tuesday, indicating that the bears remain in control.
Sellers will try to start a new downtrend by pulling the Dogecoin price below $0.12. If they succeed, the DOGE/USDT pair could slide to the Oct. 10 low of $0.10.
This bearish view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the moving averages. Such a move suggests that the market has rejected the breakdown below the $0.13 support. The pair may then rise to $0.16 and subsequently to $0.19.
Cardano price prediction
Cardano (ADA) turned down from the $0.37 level, indicating that the bears are trying to flip the level into resistance.
Sellers will attempt to resume the downtrend by pulling the Cardano price below $0.34. If they do that, the ADA/USDT pair could plunge to $0.30 and, after that, to the Oct. 10 low of $0.27.
Time is running out for the bulls. They will have to swiftly thrust the price above the moving averages to signal a comeback. The pair could then rally to the breakdown level of $0.50, which is likely to act as a major hurdle.
Bitcoin Cash price prediction
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) turned up from the 20-day EMA ($570) on Monday, but the bulls could not sustain the bounce.
The bears are attempting to strengthen their position by sinking the Bitcoin Cash price below the 20-day EMA. If they can pull it off, the BCH/USDT pair could descend to the 50-day SMA ($541).
On the contrary, if BCH price turns up sharply from the moving averages, it suggests that the bulls continue to buy on dips. That increases the likelihood of a rally to the $631 to $651 resistance zone.
Chainlink price prediction
Chainlink (LINK) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($12.91) on Monday, indicating that the bears continue to sell on rallies.
There is minor support at $11.61, but if the level cracks, the LINK/USDT pair could drop to the strong support at $10.94. Buyers are expected to vigorously defend the $10.94 level, as a break below it may sink the LINK price to the Oct. 10 low of $7.90.
Buyers will have to drive the pair above the moving averages to gain the upper hand. The pair may then rally to $15.01. A break and close above the $15.01 resistance suggests that the downtrend may be over.
Hyperliquid price prediction
Hyperliquid’s (HYPE) bounce could not even reach the 20-day EMA ($27.09), indicating a lack of demand from the bulls at higher levels.
The bears will attempt to pull the Hyperliquid price below the $22.19 support. If they manage to do that, the HYPE/USDT pair could retest the Oct. 10 low of $20.82. Buyers are expected to step in at the $20.82 level, as a break below it may sink the pair to $16.90.
The bulls will have to push the price above the 20-day EMA to signal strength. The pair may then climb to $29.37 and later to the breakdown level of $35.50.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
As the crypto space headed into the last month of 2025, the mood was different from previous cycles. The year didn’t bring another decentralized finance (DeFi) summer or non-fungible token (NFT) euphoria, but instead ushered in a slow and sober pivot toward utility.
Decentralized applications (DApps) are software programs that run on blockchain networks, rather than centralized servers. By using smart contracts, DApps allow users to interact directly with apps for payments, finance, gaming or social media while retaining greater control over identities and assets.
Active builders held steady in 2025 but shifted their priorities to a longer-term outlook. According to Electric Capital’s Developer Report, the number of full-time crypto developers — defined as contributors committing code at least 10 days per month — rose 5% year-on-year, even as total developer counts dipped slightly.
The divergence suggests that speculative “tourist” participation has waned, while more builders are pursuing crypto as a full-time profession. In practice, that points to a smaller but more committed developer base, with sustained development effort increasingly concentrated among long-term teams rather than short-term projects.
Web3 gaming developers are also identifying different drivers of success for gaming DApps. According to a survey by the Blockchain Gaming Alliance (BGA), Web3 game developers are tying success to polished gameplay, sustainable monetization and infrastructure that supports spending.
This means that builders are depending less on external forces like traditional gaming giants coming into Web3 and instead focusing on controllable factors such as implementing interoperability, integrating artificial intelligence and creating player-driven economies.
Key factors that are perceived to drive the growth of the blockchain gaming industry. Source: BGA Survey
If 2024 was defined by layer-2 scaling paths, 2025 became a year of preparation. Builders focused on making crypto usable, pushing account abstraction into production, tightening wallet UX and building mobile distribution channels through ecosystems like Solana’s Saga and The Open Network’s deep integration with Telegram.
At the same time, regulators across major jurisdictions like the United States, Europe and Asia have drawn clearer boundaries around stablecoins, custody and reporting, giving developers a framework to build within. The result was a year spent building the groundwork instead of chasing breakout apps.
The groundwork now sets up 2026 as a decisive test of relevance. With tooling largely in place and compliance streamlined, DApps will need to address the challenging question of whether they can attract and retain users without relying on speculative incentives.
The industry spent much of 2025 talking about a pivot to utility, but 2026 is where this claim would have to meet reality. If everyday users don’t stay once yields fade and rewards disappear, the problem will no longer be the technology, but the applications themselves.
How DApps can compete with Web2 in 2026
While DApps focused on competing with each other for user attention in previous years, 2026 may become the year when they must stand against Web2 applications and their scale.
For DApps to stand a chance, they must erase barriers that historically caused friction for mainstream users — and the shift is already underway. Account abstraction is moving closer to becoming the default experience across major ecosystems, enabling smart accounts that behave more like familiar log-in mechanisms than cryptographic tooling.
Gas sponsorships, where apps pay gas on behalf of users, reduced one of the biggest pain points, while social logins and MPC wallets removed the need for seed phrases. Moreover, sub-second finality on high-performance blockchains like Solana and modular rollups on Ethereum have narrowed the latency gap.
The emerging layer of AI agents capable of interacting with smart contracts could make DApp usage feel less like managing a wallet and more like a regular application.
This highlights the stark contrast between 2025 and 2026. This year showed fragmentation fatigue, where thousands of isolated DApps, each with separate accounts, assets and user journeys, created a high cognitive load for new users.
Because of this, the next leap for the sector may come from modular, interoperable super apps that bundle multiple needs in one interface, similar to how WeChat and Grab built dominance in the Web2 space.
Payments, savings and stablecoin rails could sit alongside NFT creator tools, gaming assets, loyalty tokens and social identity, allowing users to move across experiences inside a single ecosystem.
If 2025 was the year protocols built the foundation, 2026 may be the year to test whether these actually work in daily use.
Solana and opBNB dominate in unique active wallets in 2025. Source: DappRadar
Several ecosystems enter 2026 with distinct advantages, not only in throughput or developer tools, but also in distribution, user funnels and real-world relevance.
Ethereum remains the center of smart contract development, but its 2025 upgrades were incremental in nature. Improvements tied to the Fusaka upgrade focused on advancing Ethereum’s data availability and zero-knowledge roadmap.
It includes early steps toward more efficient proof systems and shared sequencing concepts rather than immediate fee reductions on the mainnet. Together with the continued maturation of rollups, these changes position Ethereum to support cheaper and faster settlement over time, without compromising its security model.
Solana continues to carve out the consumer lane, powering sub-second transactions for payments, in-app micro-purchases and mobile-native experiences that feel more Web2 than Web3.
On the other hand, TON stands out with arguably the strongest user funnel in the crypto space. Telegram’s massive user base, Mini Apps and seamless wallet integrations created a distribution channel that would be difficult to replicate.
DappRadar integrated data showed that BNB Chain has over 6,000 DApps. Source: DappRadar
Beyond chains, thematic sectors could also define what could dominate the sector in 2026. Decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN) gained traction in 2025 by anchoring crypto to real-world workflows like bandwidth, compute markets, mobility networks and energy credits.
These provided revenue paths that are not dependent on yield farming. In June, a World Economic Forum (WEF) report predicted that the sector could grow to $3.5 trillion by 2028, driven by the adoption of blockchain and artificial intelligence.
Meanwhile, creator-focused DApps are also maturing beyond NFTs and speculation toward micro-IP ownership, music royalties and fan-powered monetization models.
If these trends hold, the ecosystems best placed to succeed in 2026 will likely be the ones that combine distribution, scalability and clearer everyday use cases — not just the fastest network, but the one with the most active users.
2026 will be a turning point for utility
Crypto has already spent years building, scaling networks, tightening security, refining user experiences and building regulatory foundations to support its developments.
With infrastructure reaching consumer-grade readiness, the next phase may be less about which chain processes transactions faster and more about which products we are willing to return to without the usual token incentives.
If 2025 was a year spent in construction, 2026 is shaping up to be a year to evaluate — one where DApps must deliver practical value and not just promises. The winners will be those that feel similar to everyday applications, with simple onboarding, invisible gas and stable cost structures.
Hong Kong regulators will proceed with legislating licensing regimes for crypto dealers and custodians after wrapping up consultations, as part of a broader push to tighten oversight.
In a Wednesday announcement, the city’s Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau (FSTB) and the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) said that they had concluded consultations on proposed licensing regimes, which would require firms providing crypto dealings or custody services in Hong Kong to obtain licenses once the framework takes effect.
The move adds to the city’s expanding crypto licensing framework. Earlier in 2025, Hong Kong brought its Stablecoin Ordinance into force, opening a new licensing regime for stablecoin issuers.
Hong Kong already requires crypto trading platforms to be licensed. The current mandatory regime builds on earlier opt-in framework introduced in 2020, with 11 companies having received approval from the SFC to date.
Hong Kong has rejected more applicants for its crypto exchange license than it approved. Source: SFC
Hong Kong has long expressed its ambitions to develop into a crypto hub. The city already functions as a financial hub with its business-friendly tax regimes and its reputation as a finance gateway between mainland China and global capital markets.
Beyond crypto licensing rules, Hong Kong has also tested tokenization initiatives. In Thursday’s announcement, regulators added that the pending introduction of licensing regimes for crypto dealers and custodians is part of the city’s effort to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets alongside stablecoins and tokenization.
Julia Leung, CEO of the SFC, said that the further development of Hong Kong’s crypto regulatory framework would help the city maintain its position in global digital asset market developments by “fostering a trusted, competitive and sustainable ecosystem.”
The SFC also published a consultation paper on the same day, seeking public feedback on proposals to introduce licensing regimes for crypto advisory service providers and management service providers.
The consultation links the proposed regimes to Hong Kong’s existing Anti‑Mone‑Laundering (AML) framework and Counter‑Terrorist Financing Ordinance, and sets out how advisory and management activities involving digital assets will be brought within the regulatory framework.
It also invites comments on matters such as licensing scope, regulatory powers, sanctions and appeal arrangements, which will be taken into account in finalizing the proposals.
Bitcoin (BTC) may establish a local bottom after dropping by over 35% from its record high of around $126,200 established two months ago, based on a mix of technical and on-chain indicators.
Key takeaways:
Momentum, miner capitulation, and liquidity indicators point to fading selling pressure.
Macro liquidity suggests a BTC recovery could begin within the next 4–6 weeks.
Bitcoin sellers nearing exhaustion
As of December, Bitcoin’s weekly Stochastic RSI had turned up from oversold levels, a setup that has historically appeared near key inflexion points, before the price rebounded, as highlighted by trader Jesse in the chart below.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView/Jelle
Similar bullish crosses emerged in early 2019 (after BTC bottomed near $3,200), March 2020 (the COVID crash low near $3,800), and late 2022 (around the $15,500 cycle low). In each case, momentum shifted first, while price lagged.
Adding to the signal, Bitcoin’s three-day chart is printing a bullish divergence where price made a lower low, but momentum did not.
This pattern also appeared ahead of the mid-2021 correction low and the FTX-driven bottom in 2022, both of which preceded multi-month recoveries.
These signals suggest selling pressure in the Bitcoin market may be exhausted in the near future, a condition more typical of market bottoms than temporary relief rallies.
Bitcoin miner capitulation shows BTC bottom is in
Bitcoin’s hashrate fell 4% in the month to Dec. 15, a development VanEck analysts Matt Sigel and Patrick Bush viewed as “a bullish contrarian signal” linked to miner capitulation.
Periods of sustained hash rate compression have historically preceded stronger Bitcoin returns, they said, explaining that since 2014, BTC posted positive 90-day returns 65% of the time following 30-day hashrate declines.
Bitcoin mean hash rate vs. price. Source: Glassnode
The signal strengthened over longer horizons, with positive 180-day returns 77% of the time and an average gain of 72%.
Rising prices could also improve miner profitability and bring sidelined capacity back online.
Bitcoin may rally in 4-6 weeks, one macro indicator shows
Bitcoin may be nearing a bottom as liquidity conditions begin to improve, a factor that has historically led to major BTC reversals.
Analyst Miad Kasravi’s backtest of 105 indicators showed the National Financial Conditions Index’s (NFCI) top often leads a Bitcoin rally by four to six weeks.
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index. Source: FRED
This signal appeared in late 2022 and mid-2024, both ahead of sharp rallies. Historically, each 0.10-point decline has aligned with roughly 15%–20% upside in Bitcoin, with deeper NFCI readings marking prolonged BTC uptrend phases.
NFCI Index vs. Bitcoin price. Source: X
As of December, NFCI sat at -0.52 and was trending lower.
NFCI Index vs. Bitcoin price. Source: X
A potential catalyst is the Federal Reserve’s plan to rotate mortgage-backed securities into Treasury bills, a move Kasravi compared to the 2019 “not-QE” liquidity injection that preceded a 40% Bitcoin rally.
Despite these signals, many market watchers anticipate Bitcoin’s price to decline further, with their price targets ranging from $70,000 to $25,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Bitcoin (BTC) may establish a local bottom after dropping by over 35% from its record high of around $126,200 established two months ago, based on a mix of technical and on-chain indicators.
Key takeaways:
Momentum, miner capitulation, and liquidity indicators point to fading selling pressure.
Macro liquidity suggests a BTC recovery could begin within the next 4–6 weeks.
Bitcoin sellers nearing exhaustion
As of December, Bitcoin’s weekly Stochastic RSI had turned up from oversold levels, a setup that has historically appeared near key inflexion points, before the price rebounded, as highlighted by trader Jesse in the chart below.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView/Jelle
Similar bullish crosses emerged in early 2019 (after BTC bottomed near $3,200), March 2020 (the COVID crash low near $3,800), and late 2022 (around the $15,500 cycle low). In each case, momentum shifted first, while price lagged.
Adding to the signal, Bitcoin’s three-day chart is printing a bullish divergence where price made a lower low, but momentum did not.
This pattern also appeared ahead of the mid-2021 correction low and the FTX-driven bottom in 2022, both of which preceded multi-month recoveries.
These signals suggest selling pressure in the Bitcoin market may be exhausted in the near future, a condition more typical of market bottoms than temporary relief rallies.
Bitcoin miner capitulation shows BTC bottom is in
Bitcoin’s hashrate fell 4% in the month to Dec. 15, a development VanEck analysts Matt Sigel and Patrick Bush viewed as “a bullish contrarian signal” linked to miner capitulation.
Periods of sustained hash rate compression have historically preceded stronger Bitcoin returns, they said, explaining that since 2014, BTC posted positive 90-day returns 65% of the time following 30-day hashrate declines.
Bitcoin mean hash rate vs. price. Source: Glassnode
The signal strengthened over longer horizons, with positive 180-day returns 77% of the time and an average gain of 72%.
Rising prices could also improve miner profitability and bring sidelined capacity back online.
Bitcoin may rally in 4-6 weeks, one macro indicator shows
Bitcoin may be nearing a bottom as liquidity conditions begin to improve, a factor that has historically led to major BTC reversals.
Analyst Miad Kasravi’s backtest of 105 indicators showed the National Financial Conditions Index’s (NFCI) top often leads a Bitcoin rally by four to six weeks.
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index. Source: FRED
This signal appeared in late 2022 and mid-2024, both ahead of sharp rallies. Historically, each 0.10-point decline has aligned with roughly 15%–20% upside in Bitcoin, with deeper NFCI readings marking prolonged BTC uptrend phases.
NFCI Index vs. Bitcoin price. Source: X
As of December, NFCI sat at -0.52 and was trending lower.
NFCI Index vs. Bitcoin price. Source: X
A potential catalyst is the Federal Reserve’s plan to rotate mortgage-backed securities into Treasury bills, a move Kasravi compared to the 2019 “not-QE” liquidity injection that preceded a 40% Bitcoin rally.
Despite these signals, many market watchers anticipate Bitcoin’s price to decline further, with their price targets ranging from $70,000 to $25,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Ondo plans an early 2026 rollout of tokenized US stocks and ETFs on Solana.
The tokens are custody-backed. Underlying securities sit with US-registered broker-dealers, while onchain holders receive economic exposure rather than shareholder rights.
Minting and redemption are designed to keep tokens anchored to real assets on a 24/5 basis, while transfers and trading can operate 24/7.
Compliance is intended to travel with the asset, using Solana Token Extensions such as Transfer Hooks to enforce eligibility and transfer restrictions.
Ondo’s core pitch is that investors should be able to hold traditional financial exposure, such as Treasurys, money market funds and now US equities, inside the same wallet they use for stablecoins and move those assets onchain.
Most recently, the company plans to bring tokenized US stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to Solana. Ondo says it aims to launch these tokens in early 2026, extending a product line it already operates on other blockchains.
The idea is straightforward: You hold a “stock token” in your wallet, then trade or transfer that exposure on Solana, with settlement that can occur much faster than the traditional market stack and access that continues even when US exchanges are closed.
Did you know? Ondo Finance launched its USDY (“US Dollar Yield”) token in August 2023, describing it as a tokenized note backed by US Treasurys and bank deposits, paying 5% APY at launch.
What exactly is Ondo putting on Solana?
Ondo’s Global Markets product already offers onchain exposure to more than 100 US stocks and ETFs, with “hundreds more” on the roadmap. The team has flagged Solana as one of the next networks in line.
The Solana rollout focuses on taking that existing catalog and making it available on Solana in early 2026, with tokenized stock and ETF trading that runs 24/7 and settles in seconds.
With roughly $365 million already issued onchain, this represents a scale-up of Ondo’s existing tokenization business. Bringing the product to Solana follows an earlier expansion to BNB Chain.
According to Ondo’s disclosures, the tokens provide economic exposure to publicly traded stocks and ETFs, including dividend effects, with the underlying assets held at US-registered broker-dealers, along with cash in transit.
The holder’s claim is to that stream of economic returns, while shareholder rights over the underlying securities remain with the custodial structure that owns them. In short, financial performance lives onchain while formal ownership remains offchain. That is the core structure Ondo plans to bring to Solana.
How the structure works: Custody, minting and redemption
For stock tokens to be credible, they need to stay anchored to real securities.
Ondo’s design follows a classic custody-backed model. The underlying US stocks and ETFs are held with one or more US-registered broker-dealers, along with any cash that sits between trades or transfers. The tokens visible onchain are intended to reflect economic exposure to that pool of assets, rather than a separate synthetic product that could drift away from what is actually held.
That is where minting and redemption come in. Token supply is designed to expand and contract as users create and redeem tokens against the underlying assets, rather than leaving a fixed pool to trade freely on secondary markets.
Ondo says users will be able to mint and redeem 24 hours a day, five days a week, while the tokens themselves can move directly between crypto wallets and applications 24/7/365. In other words, creation and redemption align with traditional market hours, while transfers and trading follow crypto’s always-on rhythm.
Pricing is the other key component. If a token is meant to track total economic return, it cannot simply mirror the last exchange-traded share price. Dividends and corporate actions must be reflected in the data as well.
Ondo has pointed to Chainlink as the official oracle layer, and Chainlink has discussed building custom feeds for each tokenized equity that account for both price movements and events such as dividend payments. This gives protocols, trading venues and risk systems a single, consistent reference for what each token is worth at any given moment.
Solana’s technical features also matter at this level of detail. Tokenized equities require eligibility checks and transfer rules to be built into the asset’s behavior.
Solana’s Token Extensions include transfer hooks, which are pieces of code that run each time a token moves. This allows Ondo to attach conditions directly to the token, including who is allowed to hold it, which regions are excluded, and what happens when someone attempts to send it into a specific smart contract. These checks travel with the asset wherever it moves in the ecosystem.
Why Solana?
If Ondo wants tokenized US stocks to feel natural to everyday crypto users, Solana is an obvious candidate.
The network already has a large retail audience, fast confirmation times and a culture of trading applications built around low fees and near-instant execution. For something that looks and feels like an equity position but lives in a wallet alongside stablecoins and memecoins, those characteristics are hard to ignore. That context sets the stage for Ondo’s plan to launch its tokenized stocks and ETFs on Solana in early 2026.
There is also a regulatory and risk angle. These tokens are linked to regulated underlying assets, and as Ondo’s own disclosures make clear, they do not turn the holder into a direct shareholder.
That means there must be jurisdiction filters, investor eligibility checks and clear rules governing how and where the tokens can move. The product only works if those constraints are enforced consistently rather than being left to individual applications or exchanges to interpret on their own.
Solana’s Token Extensions are built with this type of real-world asset in mind. The Transfer Hook extension allows each token to call custom logic on every movement. For example, it can confirm that both the sender and receiver are permitted to hold the asset or block transfers to certain smart contracts altogether.
Instead of relying on every front end and every decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol to remember the rules, Ondo can embed those rules directly into the token itself and then focus on expanding coverage and improving the surrounding user experience.
Did you know? In the first half of 2025, Solana averaged around 3 million to 6 million daily active addresses, with peaks above 7 million on some days, while typical transaction fees were roughly $0.00025 per transaction and blocks were produced about every 400 milliseconds.
How it would work for a user (once it’s live on Solana)
The experience is expected to feel much more like a regulated investment product than a typical DeFi token.
The first step is eligibility. Ondo’s Global Markets line has been positioned for qualifying non-US investors, using jurisdiction filters and an eligibility screen. Before you ever hit “buy,” you would need to confirm that you are in a permitted region and meet the relevant requirements.
Onboarding will likely feel closer to opening a brokerage account than simply connecting a wallet to a decentralized exchange (DEX). Because the tokens are described as fully backed by underlying stocks and ETFs held at US-registered broker-dealers, along with cash in transit, access must meet strict regulatory standards.
That includes Know Your Customer (KYC) checks, custody obligations and other compliance requirements.
Once you are approved, the user flow then shifts into a more crypto-native model:
You fund a Solana wallet with a payment asset supported by Ondo for this product, typically stablecoins.
You select a ticker and buy or mint the tokenized version. Minting and redemption are described as operating 24 hours a day, five days a week, while transfers between wallets and applications can continue 24/7/365.
You hold the position like any other token in your wallet, with one important caveat: It provides economic exposure, including dividend effects, but it is not the stock or ETF itself and does not carry shareholder rights.
Upsides and limitations
The potential appeal is clear. If Ondo succeeds in making stock and ETF exposure behave more like standard tokens on Solana, users may experience faster settlement and more flexible movement of positions compared with traditional brokerage workflows.
Even with US markets moving to T+1 settlement, a day and a few seconds sit in very different buckets, especially for users who want to move value between venues or use positions within onchain applications without waiting for trades to clear.
At the same time, some limits remain built into the design. Ondo’s disclosures are clear that holders receive economic exposure only. The underlying shares and associated shareholder rights remain with the regulated custody and brokerage structure that actually owns the securities. Access is also filtered by jurisdiction and investor eligibility since the backing assets sit within that regulated environment.
Market mechanics add another layer of dependency. For the token to track the real instrument closely, liquidity must be present, prices must stay aligned, and corporate actions such as dividends need to flow through cleanly.
That is why Ondo emphasizes both broker-dealer custody and a dedicated oracle system as core components rather than optional extras. If either the custody link or the oracle layer fails, the promise of stock-like behavior onchain begins to break down, regardless of how smooth the Solana user experience may appear on the surface.
Did you know? T+1 settlement means a trade settles, with cash and securities officially exchanging hands, one business day after the trade date. If you buy a stock on Monday, it typically settles on Tuesday, assuming there is no market holiday. In the US, this became the standard for most securities on May 28, 2024, replacing the old T+2 cycle.
What to watch before this goes live on Solana
Between now and the early 2026 target, the key signals will be the launch details that determine who can use the product, how closely the tokens track the real instruments and what protections apply if something goes wrong.
Here is the short checklist worth watching:
Launch lineup: Which stocks and ETFs are supported on day one and whether Ondo sticks with the same custody-backed model it uses elsewhere.
Access rules: How non-US eligibility, jurisdiction limits and KYC checks work and what happens if a user’s status changes.
Custody and backing: Where the underlying shares and ETFs are held and how minting and redemption operate in practice.
Pricing and events: How Chainlink feeds handle both prices and corporate actions such as dividends and splits.
Onchain controls: Whether Solana Token Extensions, such as Transfer Hooks, are used and how strict the transfer rules are.
Finally, expect scrutiny. Regulators and market structure groups have warned that tokenized stock products can confuse investors because they often do not provide shareholder rights, and the token framing does not make them any less of a securities issue.
That scrutiny is likely to shape how aggressively Ondo restricts access and how explicit it is about what holders do and do not own.
AAVE price prediction indicates potential recovery to $190 within 4 weeks, though immediate support at $146.40 must hold to prevent further decline to $135 range.
Aave (AAVE) has experienced significant downward pressure in recent trading sessions, currently sitting at $147.80 after a 3.15% decline over the past 24 hours. Our comprehensive AAVE price prediction analysis suggests a complex technical picture with both immediate risks and medium-term recovery potential emerging from current oversold conditions.
AAVE Price Prediction Summary
• AAVE short-term target (1 week): $155-$165 (+5% to +12%) – Recovery bounce expected
• Aave medium-term forecast (1 month): $175-$195 range – Sustained recovery if support holds • Key level to break for bullish continuation: $182 (SMA 20 resistance)
• Critical support if bearish: $138.42 (52-week low) – Major breakdown risk below this level
Recent Aave Price Predictions from Analysts
The latest analyst predictions for AAVE reveal mixed sentiment with slight bearish bias. Hexn’s AAVE price prediction targets a modest $150 by December 25th, representing only a 1.5% upside from current levels. This conservative forecast aligns with the current Fear & Greed Index reading of 24, indicating extreme fear in the broader crypto market.
CoinCodex presents a more optimistic Aave forecast, projecting a potential surge to $212.38 within five days – a substantial 43.6% gain that would require breaking through multiple resistance levels. However, their technical analysis also identifies critical support zones at $167.35, $161.11, and $152.35, suggesting significant downside risk if current support fails.
The consensus among recent predictions leans bearish in the immediate term, with most analysts highlighting the breakdown below the $183.92 support level as a concerning technical development for AAVE’s near-term prospects.
AAVE Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Oversold Bounce
Current Aave technical analysis reveals severely oversold conditions that typically precede short-term rebounds. The RSI sits at 32.44, approaching oversold territory while maintaining room for further decline. More notably, AAVE’s position relative to Bollinger Bands shows a -0.0279 reading, indicating the price is trading below the lower band – a condition that often signals oversold extremes and potential mean reversion.
The MACD histogram at -4.4947 confirms bearish momentum remains intact, but the divergence between price action and momentum indicators suggests this selling pressure may be reaching exhaustion. AAVE’s Stochastic indicators (%K at 2.32, %D at 3.92) are deeply oversold, historically a precursor to relief rallies.
Volume analysis shows elevated trading activity at $18.8 million over 24 hours, indicating genuine interest at these lower levels. This volume profile supports the thesis that current levels may represent a temporary bottom formation.
Aave Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for AAVE
Our bullish AAVE price prediction targets an initial recovery to $165 (EMA 12 resistance), followed by a more significant move toward $190 if momentum builds. The AAVE price target of $190 represents the midpoint between current levels and the SMA 50 at $184.45, providing a realistic medium-term objective.
For this bullish scenario to unfold, AAVE must first reclaim the $152 level and establish it as support. A break above $165 would signal the beginning of a more substantial recovery phase, potentially targeting the SMA 20 at $181.90. Ultimate bullish confirmation would come from a break above $195, opening the door to test $212.38 as suggested by CoinCodex’s aggressive forecast.
Bearish Risk for Aave
The bearish case for our Aave forecast centers on a breakdown below the critical $146.40 support level. Such a break would likely trigger algorithmic selling and push AAVE toward the 52-week low at $138.42. A decisive break below this level could see AAVE testing the $125-$130 range, representing a -15% to -18% decline from current levels.
Key bearish catalysts include broader crypto market weakness, DeFi sector rotation, or failure to hold current support amid continued selling pressure. The distance from the 52-week high of 58.69% already reflects significant technical damage that could worsen under adverse conditions.
Should You Buy AAVE Now? Entry Strategy
Based on our AAVE technical analysis, the current risk-reward profile favors selective accumulation for risk-tolerant investors. The optimal entry strategy involves scaling into positions between $145-$150, with the strongest buy signal emerging on any dip toward $142-$145.
Risk management requires tight stop-losses below $138.42 to limit downside exposure. Position sizing should remain conservative given the uncertain macro environment, with initial allocations not exceeding 2-3% of total portfolio value.
For those questioning whether to buy or sell AAVE, the current setup favors patient buyers willing to endure potential near-term volatility. However, selling pressure could persist if broader market sentiment doesn’t improve, making this a higher-risk entry point suitable only for experienced traders.
AAVE Price Prediction Conclusion
Our comprehensive AAVE price prediction anticipates a recovery to $190 within the next 4-6 weeks, contingent on holding current support levels. This represents a medium confidence forecast based on oversold technical conditions and typical bounce patterns from similar setups.
Key indicators to watch include RSI movement above 40 for initial recovery confirmation, MACD histogram turning positive for momentum shift confirmation, and sustained trading above $155 for trend change validation. Timeline for this prediction extends through late January 2025, with interim targets at $165 and $175 serving as progression markers.
The primary invalidation signal would be a decisive break below $138.42, which would require reassessing our Aave forecast toward significantly lower targets in the $120-$130 range.
Bhutan is using surplus, carbon-free hydropower to mine Bitcoin, converting excess electricity into a liquid digital export rather than curtailing generation.
Mining and custody are handled by the sovereign investment arm, Druk Holding and Investments (DHI), and confined to designated jurisdictions, limiting retail exposure.
Officials describe mined Bitcoin as a foreign-currency liquidity buffer that has already supported government finances.
The central bank permits crypto activity only under a phased, sandbox-style framework linked to Gelephu Mindfulness City, with an emphasis on risk control and transparency.
Bhutan’s pitch to the crypto world is simple: If a country has abundant renewable power and limited domestic demand, it can turn electrons into digital assets.
In practice, the Himalayan kingdom has been quietly doing exactly that: using hydropower to run industrial-scale Bitcoin (BTC) mining and to build a state-backed, values-driven “green digital assets” strategy that officials say can generate hard-currency liquidity, support public spending and help develop a domestic tech workforce.
Step 1: Start with the only natural resource that scales
Bhutan’s energy system is dominated by hydropower, and electricity exports, especially to India, are a core pillar of the economy. Reportedly, Bhutan’s leadership views expanded hydropower capacity as a prerequisite for scaling its “green” crypto ambitions.
The government’s own energy planning documents frame this expansion in large numbers. Bhutan’s National Energy Policy 2025 cites a “techno-economically viable hydropower potential” of 33,000 megawatts (MW), based on the Power System Master Plan 2040, and positions hydropower alongside solar, wind and storage as central to long-term growth.
A World Bank report similarly places Bhutan’s feasible hydropower potential at roughly 33 gigawatts and notes the macroeconomic impact of recent imports of IT equipment linked to crypto mining expansion.
Recent cross-border project announcements underline how tangible the buildout has become. In November 2025, India inaugurated the 1,020-MW Punatsangchhu-II hydropower project and extended a new credit line tied to deeper energy cooperation. Officials also noted that Bhutan’s domestic power demand is around 1,000 MW, with surplus electricity exported.
Step 2: Use surplus hydropower as “computing fuel”
Bhutan’s crypto strategy is spearheaded by Druk Holding and Investments (DHI), the commercial investment arm of the royal government.
In an April 2025 interview with Reuters, DHI CEO Ujjwal Deep Dahal said Bhutan began adding cryptocurrencies to DHI’s portfolio in 2019. He framed Bitcoin mining as a way to increase access to foreign-currency liquidity and create value from surplus hydropower.
Bhutan has used some crypto-related profits to help pay government salaries for the past two years, according to senior officials in Thimphu.
A key industrial lever is the Bitdeer and DHI partnership, announced in May 2023. Bitdeer said the parties planned to launch a closed-end fund of up to $500 million to develop carbon-free digital asset mining operations in Bhutan, leveraging the country’s renewable power and Bitdeer’s mining expertise.
Step 3: Treat Bitcoin like a financial buffer for a seasonal grid
Hydropower systems often face a timing problem: Generation can surge when rivers run high and shrink when flows drop.
In January 2025, Bhutan’s Gelephu Mindfulness City (GMC) project described the country’s approach as a way to monetize surplus summer hydropower via “green Bitcoin,” then convert that value back into electricity or imports when power is tighter. The project quoted DHI’s Dahal as describing Bitcoin “strategically as a battery.”
That “battery” framing matters because it is one of Bhutan’s most consistent arguments for why mining is not merely speculation. Instead, it is positioned as infrastructure-adjacent, turning otherwise curtailed renewable generation into a liquid reserve asset.
Step 4: Keep it sovereign and increasingly regulated
Bhutan’s mining and reserve-building efforts have attracted attention because they are state-linked rather than purely private. In September 2024, blockchain analytics firm Arkham disclosed that it had identified Bhutan government-linked Bitcoin holdings on its platform and characterized those holdings as originating from mining rather than seizures. However, onchain estimates fluctuate with price movements and wallet attribution and should not be treated as audited public accounts.
On the regulatory front, Bhutan’s central bank, the Royal Monetary Authority (RMA), has publicly signaled a controlled approach. In an April 30, 2025, notice titled “RMA’s Regulatory Stance on Cryptocurrency,” the RMA said it would adopt a phased and focused strategy.
The notice stated that crypto mining and exchanges would be permitted only for entities registered with GMC. Participation would also be limited to business partners operating under the GMC framework.
This sandbox-like containment aligns with how GMC is being positioned as a special jurisdiction with its own policy toolkit and a prominent finance and digital assets pillar. That framework includes a proposed blockchain-linked currency concept, “ter,” and a planned fully reserved digital bank, Oro Bank.
Step 5: The “green coin” narrative and the risks involved
Bhutan’s officials explicitly emphasize the climate angle. For example, Dahal has argued that coins mined using Bhutan’s hydropower offset coins mined with fossil energy elsewhere and contribute to the green economy.
But even in a renewables-heavy system, these risks do not disappear:
Volatility and fiscal risk: Bitcoin’s price can swing sharply, and using volatile assets in public finance introduces budgeting risk, even if holdings are built from surplus power rather than taxes.
Transparency: Onchain tracking is not the same as official disclosure. Audited reporting and clear governance matter when reserves are state-linked.
Financial crime and consumer protection: The RMA’s phased stance and the restriction of permitted activity to GMC-registered entities reflect a preference for controlled participation rather than open retail speculation.
Testing a green Bitcoin model
Bhutan’s green Bitcoin economy is not a meme trade; it is a state-directed effort to bolt a new export, digital assets, onto the country’s existing comparative advantage in renewable power. The strategy uses a special jurisdiction, Gelephu Mindfulness City, alongside central bank guardrails to limit spillover risk.
Whether it becomes a durable model will depend less on slogans and more on hydropower expansion, disciplined reserve management and how transparently the state accounts for what it mines, holds and sells.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
