The newly appointed governor of the Bank of Korea, Hyun-Song Shin, has voiced support for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and tokenized deposits in his first public address.
Shin, who began his four-year term after an inauguration ceremony in Seoul on Tuesday, said the central bank will advance the second phase of “Project Hangang,” a Bank of Korea-led pilot project to test a blockchain-based, wholesale CBDC system.
He also pointed to international cooperation efforts, including the Agora Project, an international collaborative initiative launched in April 2024 by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and seven central banks to explore the tokenization of cross-border payments. Shin said these initiatives “will elevate the status of the Korean won in the digital payment environment.”
While previous reports had suggested Shin was open to won-based stablecoins, he did not mention stablecoins in his inaugural speech.
South Korea’s stablecoin bill remains stalled, with regulators and lawmakers split over whether issuance of won-pegged tokens should be limited to commercial banks or opened up to non-bank players such as fintech and tech firms.
Shin also mentioned rising tensions in the Middle East and its effect on oil prices, saying that the Bank of Korea must adapt to rising uncertainty driven by geopolitical shocks, inflation pressures and shifts in the global economy.
“We must strive for price and financial stability through the operation of prudent and flexible monetary policy,” he said.
Shin was the BIS economic adviser from May 2014 to March 2026 and also served as head of the Monetary and Economic Department from January 2025, according to the BIS website.
Last month, he published an academic paper arguing that stablecoins fail to meet a core property of money, “unity,” because blockchain networks are inherently fragmented across different chains with varying fees, security and decentralisation levels.
South Korea to test tokenized deposits for government spending
South Korea’s Ministry of Economy and Finance is preparing to test blockchain-based payments for selected government expenses as part of a regulatory sandbox exploring distributed ledger technology in public finance.
The pilot will use tokenized deposits to execute government operational spending, with a full rollout targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026. The initial phase will be launched in Sejong City and will include conditions such as limits on timing and spending categories.
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AAVE approaches make-or-break support levels as DeFi lending tokens face institutional rotation pressure. Technical patterns suggest potential downside to $70-75 if key support fails.
Market Context: Why AAVE is Moving Now
AAVE faces mounting pressure as institutional capital rotates away from DeFi lending protocols toward traditional finance yield opportunities. The token’s recent performance reflects broader skepticism about decentralized lending margins as conventional markets offer competitive returns with regulatory clarity.
The protocol maintains strong fundamentals with consistent revenue generation, but market sentiment has shifted toward more established crypto assets. This creates a disconnect between AAVE’s operational health and its price action, setting up potential technical opportunities for patient investors.
Technical Analysis Framework
AAVE’s chart structure reveals a critical juncture approaching. The token has been consolidating in a defined range, with lower support levels becoming increasingly important for maintaining bullish structure. RSI indicators suggest neither extreme oversold nor overbought conditions, creating uncertainty about near-term direction.
Moving averages show the token trading below key long-term trend lines, indicating the path of least resistance remains downward absent a catalyst. Bollinger Band positioning suggests volatility compression that typically precedes significant directional moves.
Volume patterns indicate reduced institutional participation, with trading activity concentrated among retail participants. This dynamic often creates conditions for sharp price movements when institutional flows resume.
Derivatives and Positioning Analysis
Futures positioning data suggests mixed sentiment among professional traders, with no clear directional bias in aggregate positioning. Open interest levels remain stable, indicating neither aggressive accumulation nor distribution phases currently active.
Funding rates across perpetual contracts show neutral readings, suggesting no significant premium for long or short positioning. This equilibrium often precedes periods of increased volatility as market participants await catalysts.
Options flow indicates interest in both upside and downside protection, with elevated implied volatility reflecting uncertainty about AAVE’s near-term trajectory.
Strategic Scenarios
The primary bearish scenario involves a breakdown below established support levels, which could accelerate selling toward the $70-75 range. This outcome becomes more probable if broader crypto markets experience renewed selling pressure or if DeFi sector rotation continues.
Such a decline would represent approximately 25% downside from current levels, bringing AAVE to technically significant support zones where institutional accumulation historically occurs.
The alternative bullish scenario requires reclaiming key resistance levels with sustained volume, potentially triggering short-covering and renewed institutional interest. This path faces headwinds from sector rotation trends but remains viable if broader crypto sentiment improves.
Target Analysis: Technical support breakdown could drive AAVE toward $70-75 within 10 trading days, creating potential accumulation opportunities for long-term investors at historically attractive valuations.
LDO’s recent bounce off multi-week lows reeks of short covering, not genuine buying interest. The next resistance test near $0.40 will likely trigger the final capitulation wave toward $0.25 support.
The Bounce That Screams Weakness
LDO carved out a textbook bear market rally from its recent lows, but the underlying structure tells a different story than the green candles suggest. When a token bounces this hard after weeks of selling pressure, the natural instinct is to assume buyers are stepping in. The reality is far grimmer.
Bear market rallies follow a predictable pattern: sharp oversold bounces that attract late longs, followed by brutal rejections that wipe out both new bulls and remaining bagholders. LDO’s current price action fits this template perfectly, trading in the danger zone where hope meets reality.
Technical Structure Breakdown
The key insight here isn’t about specific indicator readings – it’s about market structure. LDO remains trapped well below its major moving averages, indicating the longer-term trend stays firmly bearish. Every bounce in this environment serves one purpose: creating better short entry points for institutions.
The recent low around $0.27 established a temporary floor, but floors in bear markets are made to be broken. The current bounce has likely exhausted itself as it approaches the $0.38-$0.40 resistance cluster where previous support turned resistance.
What makes this setup particularly dangerous for bulls is the volume profile. Genuine accumulation phases show sustained buying interest across multiple timeframes. Instead, we’re seeing sharp spikes followed by immediate selling pressure – the hallmark of distribution disguised as recovery.
The Rejection Zone Approaches
The $0.38-$0.42 area represents the killing field for this bounce. Multiple technical factors converge in this zone to create a brick wall of resistance. Previous support levels from earlier in the downtrend now serve as resistance, and the psychological round number at $0.40 adds another layer of selling pressure.
Smart money understands this dynamic. They’re not chasing green candles into resistance – they’re positioning for the inevitable rejection. The bounce serves their purposes by clearing out weak shorts and attracting fresh long positions that will provide exit liquidity for the next leg down.
Derivatives Market Reality Check
The futures market tells the real story behind LDO’s price action. While spot prices bounce, the derivatives complex shows persistent bearish positioning from sophisticated traders. The funding rates and open interest patterns suggest institutions are using this rally to build larger short positions rather than covering existing ones.
This creates a dangerous feedback loop for retail traders. Surface-level bullish price action masks underlying bearish positioning from players with deeper pockets and better information. When the rejection comes, it tends to be swift and brutal as leveraged longs get liquidated in cascade fashion.
The Capitulation Target
Once LDO rejects from the $0.38-$0.42 resistance zone, the next major support sits around $0.25. This represents a significant breakdown below the recent lows and would likely trigger widespread capitulation from remaining holders.
The $0.25 level isn’t arbitrary – it aligns with longer-term Fibonacci retracement levels and represents a psychological breaking point for many LDO bulls. More importantly, it sits at a level that would flush out most leveraged positions and create the type of washout that marks genuine bear market bottoms.
Trading The Setup
The immediate strategy is straightforward: fade the bounce at resistance rather than chase green candles. LDO’s structure favors sellers at current levels, with risk-reward heavily skewed toward short positions as the token approaches the rejection zone.
The key is patience. Let the bounce exhaust itself naturally rather than trying to pick the exact top. Once rejection begins from the $0.38-$0.42 area, the downside targets become much more attractive with stops placed above the resistance cluster.
For those still holding LDO from higher levels, this bounce represents a gift – an opportunity to reduce position size before the next wave of selling pressure arrives. The technical and structural evidence suggests this relief rally is temporary, not the beginning of a sustainable recovery.
Ethereum layer-2 blockchain Arbitrum on Monday froze more than 30,000 Ether worth about $71.2 million held in a wallet connected to the recent exploit of the Kelp protocol.
Arbitrum said on Monday that its security council, a 12-member body elected by the Arbitrum community, took “emergency action” to freeze 30,766 Ether (ETH) that was held in a wallet connected to the Kelp exploit.
It added that the ETH had been moved to “an intermediary frozen wallet” and was “no longer accessible to the address that originally held the funds, and can only be moved by further action by Arbitrum governance.”
Kelp, a liquid restaking protocol, was hacked for at least $293 million on Saturday through its LayerZero-powered bridge, with LayerZero accusing North Korea of carrying out the attack.
The exploit has caused millions of dollars’ worth of “bad debt” in the highly interconnected crypto lending market, as the attackers used stolen Kelp tokens to borrow cryptocurrencies on the lending platform Aave.
A blockchain freezing crypto is a divisive measure in the crypto sector, with opponents of freezes arguing that such action is antithetical to the purpose of the technology, while supporters argue it enhances security and maintains a network’s integrity.
Multiple users on X criticized Arbitrum over the freeze and questioned its decentralization in light of funds being frozen by decree of a council.
Griff Green, a member of the Arbitrum Security Council, posted to X that the group “did not make this decision lightly, there were countless hours of debates, technical, practical, ethical and political.”
Green added that nine members of the 12-member council voted to freeze the funds, but did not share further details.
Arbitrum said its council acted with input from law enforcement and “weighed its commitment to the security and integrity of the Arbitrum community without impacting any Arbitrum users or applications.”
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Crypto security is expanding beyond digital threats, with criminals increasingly targeting individuals directly through physical coercion rather than trying to exploit blockchain vulnerabilities or hack wallets.
The French case illustrates how attackers used a fake police raid and violence to force a Bitcoin transfer worth $1 million, bypassing encryption entirely by compelling the victim to authorize the transaction.
Wrench attacks are rising, with criminals using threats or force instead of technical exploits. This highlights how human vulnerability can override even the most secure cryptographic systems.
Impersonating authority figures such as police is highly effective because it combines fear, urgency and social conditioning, making victims more likely to comply without questioning the situation.
Digital defenses are no longer the only front line in crypto security. While phishing and exchange hacks have long been major threats, a growing number of thefts now bypass code entirely and target crypto holders directly.
A recent case in France highlights this shift. Attackers posing as police staged a “raid” and physically coerced a couple into transferring nearly $1 million in Bitcoin (BTC). This was not a failure of software, but a high-stakes robbery carried out through physical force.
When the victim, not the wallet, becomes the target
Posing as law enforcement officials is often effective because it taps into several psychological triggers:
Authority: People are socially conditioned to obey police directives.
Urgency: The appearance of an official raid creates the impression that immediate compliance is necessary.
Fear: Any resistance can seem as though it may lead to criminal consequences.
When criminals present themselves as police, victims often fail to question:
The reason for their presence.
The legitimacy of their demands.
The authenticity of the entire situation.
Under stress, the impulse to obey tends to overpower the instinct to verify or question what is happening.
In crypto, this risk is even greater because a single approved transaction can move significant funds in seconds.
Did you know? The term “wrench attack” became popular in the crypto space after an online comic joked that threatening someone physically is easier than breaking encryption. It reflects a real-world shift in which attackers bypass complex systems by targeting people rather than technology.
From simulated police raid to coerced Bitcoin transfer
Unlike conventional robberies that target cash, jewelry or other tangible items, this assault specifically targeted digital cryptocurrency holdings.
The attackers’ objective was straightforward: force the victim to carry out an immediate crypto transfer.
This form of theft can be difficult to contain for several reasons:
Stolen funds can be transferred anywhere in the world within minutes.
Blockchain transactions are generally irreversible.
Once transferred, funds can be moved quickly, which can make tracing and recovery more difficult.
When the victim retains direct control over their wallet, criminals do not need to steal hardware or break through security. They only need to force the victim to approve and send the transaction personally.
Understanding wrench attacks in the cryptocurrency space
It is often far easier to threaten a person with a wrench than to try to crack their encryption.
Rather than attempting to hack a wallet, perpetrators may use:
Threats
Physical violence
Other forms of coercion
These methods are used to force victims to reveal private keys or authorize the transfer of funds. Such attacks bypass even the strongest technical protections.
No matter how strong the encryption is, human vulnerability can make that security irrelevant.
Did you know? Some high-net-worth crypto holders now use “decoy wallets” with small balances. In a coercive situation, they can reveal these wallets instead of their main holdings, adding an extra layer of psychological and financial protection.
Why these attacks are becoming more frequent
Several underlying factors are driving this increase:
Growth in self-custody: A rising number of users now hold their own private keys and manage their assets directly, making them more immediate and accessible targets.
Visibility of high-value targets: Many cryptocurrency investors, company founders and executives maintain public profiles that make their wealth and identity relatively easy to identify.
Advances in cybersecurity: As digital wallet security improves and remote hacking becomes more difficult, criminals are increasingly turning to the softer target, the human user.
Instant global liquidity: Cryptocurrency enables near-instant transfers of value anywhere in the world without banks or intermediaries acting as gatekeepers.
In 2025 alone, documented cases of verified wrench attacks reportedly rose sharply, increasing 75% from 2024. Europe, and France in particular, stood out as a growing hotspot for such incidents. Financial losses reached $40.9 million in 2025, marking a 44% annual increase. While kidnapping remained the primary threat vector, physical assaults surged by 250%.
Why France has experienced a surge
France has recently recorded multiple high-profile violent crimes linked to cryptocurrency:
Kidnappings carried out to extort cryptocurrency ransoms.
Home invasions specifically targeting high-profile figures in the crypto industry.
Coordinated operations by organized criminal groups aimed at stealing digital assets.
These recurring incidents point to a shift in criminal behavior:
More deliberate efforts to identify individuals who hold cryptocurrency.
Increased surveillance of their physical locations and daily routines.
A growing preference for direct physical targeting over purely digital methods.
As cryptocurrency adoption continues to expand, public awareness of who owns it is also growing. Unfortunately, the physical risks associated with that visibility are rising as well.
Why criminals increasingly choose coercion over hacking
Crypto security has become increasingly strong. Hardware wallets, multisignature setups and cold storage solutions make remote hacking far more difficult.
Coercion, however, changes the equation.
Even the strongest technical protections may fail if a victim is coerced into unlocking their hardware device, revealing their credentials or authorizing a transaction.
Coercive attacks bypass cryptographic defenses entirely, target points of human access and exploit natural human reactions.
For perpetrators, this approach is often faster and more reliable than trying to break through technical defenses.
Why Bitcoin remains particularly exposed in duress situations
Bitcoin’s core architecture gives it considerable strength, but it also creates significant vulnerability when the owner is under coercion.
Its key features include:
The ability to transfer value immediately
The absence of any central entity capable of reversing transactions
Permissionless, worldwide accessibility
In a situation where the holder is forced to transfer funds, these traits can result in:
Assets being moved almost instantly
Virtually no realistic chance of recovery
Attackers rapidly moving funds across multiple addresses
The same qualities that give Bitcoin its independence and value also make stolen funds extremely difficult to recover once they are transferred under duress.
Did you know? Private security firms have started offering specialized protection services for crypto investors, including travel risk assessments, home security audits and digital footprint reduction strategies aimed at preventing targeted attacks.
How French authorities are responding
French law enforcement agencies are actively investigating the incident, with specialized organized crime units leading the effort.
Potential criminal charges under review include:
Although authorities are increasing enforcement in response to such incidents, these cases continue to present serious challenges because of:
The rapid cross-border movement of stolen assets
The pseudonymous and irreversible nature of cryptocurrency transactions
The involvement of organized and professional criminal groups
Key security takeaways for cryptocurrency owners
This incident underscores a major shift in the nature of cryptocurrency security threats.
Protecting technical systems alone is no longer enough. Safeguarding wallets, private keys and physical devices must now be paired with strong personal security measures.
Essential protective steps include:
Never publicly reveal or discuss the extent of your cryptocurrency holdings.
Keep your real-world identity separate from your wallet addresses and ownership.
Use multisignature wallets so that no single individual or compromised key can authorize transfers.
Distribute signing authority and key control across different geographic locations or trusted parties.
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Buyers aggressively bought into the dip in Bitcoin, indicating positive sentiment. That increases the possibility of a rally to $84,000.
Several major altcoins have pulled back to their support levels, signaling that the bears remain sellers on rallies.
Bitcoin (BTC) corrected over the weekend but is finding buyers at lower levels, indicating a positive sentiment. According to SoSoValue data, US spot BTC exchange-traded funds recorded $996 million in inflows last week, the best weekly performance since early January.
The cryptocurrency recovery may be at risk if the US and Iran do not reach a deal before the two-week ceasefire ends on Wednesday, or if the ceasefire is not extended. Trading resource Mosaic Asset Company said in its newsletter that “intensifying hostilities could unwind the bullish action over the past few weeks.”
Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView
However, the short-term uncertainty could not stop Michael Saylor’s Strategy from adding more BTC to its portfolio. The BTC treasury company purchased 34,164 BTC between April 13 and April 19 for $2.54 billion, according to an 8-K filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday. That boosted Strategy’s holdings to 815,061 BTC acquired for $61.56 billion.
Could buyers resume the relief rally in BTC and the major altcoins? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
S&P 500 Index price prediction
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) rallied sharply last week, rising to a new all-time high of 7,147 on Friday.
The sharp upward move propelled the relative strength index (RSI) into overbought territory, suggesting the index is at risk of a minor consolidation or pullback in the short term. The first support on the downside is at the breakout level of 7,002, followed by the 20-day exponential moving average (6,828). If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, it signals that the uptrend remains intact.
Sellers have an uphill task ahead of them. They will have to swiftly yank the price below the moving averages to signal a comeback.
US Dollar Index price prediction
The US Dollar Index (DXY) turned down sharply from the 20-day EMA (98.73) on April 13 and dropped to the 97.74 support on Friday.
The index is attempting to initiate a relief rally but is expected to encounter selling pressure at the 20-day EMA. If the price again turns down from the 20-day EMA, the possibility of a break below the 97.74 level increases. That may sink the price to the 96.21 support.
The index is likely to remain inside the 95.55 to 100.54 range for a while longer. The next trending move is expected to begin on a close above the 100.54 resistance or below the 95.55 support.
Bitcoin price prediction
BTC has bounced off the 20-day EMA ($72,832), suggesting the bulls are seeing dips as buying opportunities.
The bears are unlikely to give up easily and will attempt to halt the recovery in the $76,000 to $78,333 zone. If the BTC price turns down from the overhead zone and breaks below the moving averages, it suggests that the market has rejected the breakout.
On the other hand, a break and close above the overhead resistance zone signals the resumption of the up move. The BTC/USD pair may then skyrocket to $84,000 and eventually to the pattern target of $92,000.
Ether price prediction
Buyers tried to push Ether (ETH) above the $2,415 level on Saturday, but the bears held their ground. That started a pullback to the 20-day EMA ($2,252).
Buyers will have to fiercely defend the 20-day EMA and secure a close above the $2,415 level to signal the resumption of the relief rally. If they do that, the ETH/USDT pair may march to the $2,800 level.
Sellers are likely to have other plans. They will attempt to push the ETH price below the moving averages, keeping the pair within the $1,916 to $2,415 range for some time.
BNB price prediction
BNB (BNB) continues to oscillate between $570 and $687, signaling a balance between supply and demand.
The flattish moving averages and the RSI near the midpoint do not signal an advantage either to the bulls or the bears. If the BNB price breaks above $650, the next target is likely $687.
Instead, if the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, the BNB/USDT pair may plunge toward the range’s support at $570. The next trending move is expected to begin on a close above $687 or below $570.
XRP price prediction
XRP (XRP) has been consolidating between the $1.27 support and the $1.61 resistance for several days.
The flattish moving averages and the RSI just above the midpoint suggest that the range-bound action may extend for a few more days. Buyers will have to achieve a close above the downtrend line to signal a potential trend change. The XRP price may then surge to $2.
On the downside, a break and close below the $1.27 level signals that the bears are back in the driver’s seat. There is support at the $1.11 level, but that may be broken. The XRP/USDT pair may then tumble toward the support line of the descending channel pattern.
Solana price prediction
Solana (SOL) fell below its moving averages on Sunday, suggesting that higher levels are attracting sellers.
The flattish moving averages and the RSI near the midpoint indicate that the range-bound action may continue for a while. If the price remains below the moving averages, bears will attempt to push the SOL/USDT pair toward the $76 support.
Buyers will have to push the SOL price above the $90 level to open the door to a rally toward the $98 resistance. A close above the $98 level suggests the start of a sustained recovery to the $117 level.
The flat moving averages and the RSI near the midpoint do not give either buyers or sellers a clear advantage. If the DOGE price breaks below the moving averages, the $0.09 support may be tested. A break below the $0.09 level may start the next leg of the downward move to $0.08 and subsequently to $0.06.
Buyers will have to push the price above the $0.10 level and maintain it to signal strength. The DOGE/USDT pair may then climb toward the $0.12 resistance level, where bears are expected to step in.
Hyperliquid price prediction
Hyperliquid (HYPE) fell back below the breakout level of $43.76 after staying above it for several days.
The bulls are attempting to halt the pullback at the 20-day EMA ($41.03), but the bears continue to exert pressure. If the 20-day EMA gives way, the HYPE/USDT pair may plummet toward the 50-day SMA ($38.09) and then toward $34.45.
On the contrary, a bounce off the 20-day EMA suggests that the lower levels continue to attract buyers. The bulls will then attempt to drive the HYPE price above the $45.77 level again. If they succeed, the pair may skyrocket to the $50-$51.43 zone.
Cardano price prediction
Cardano (ADA) rose above the 50-day SMA ($0.26) on Friday, but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels.
The ADA/USDT pair turned lower on Saturday, falling below the $0.25 level. Sellers will attempt to strengthen their position by driving the ADA price below $0.23. If they manage to do that, the pair may resume its downtrend to $0.22 and later to the support line of the descending channel pattern.
Buyers will have to push the price above the downtrend line and maintain it there to signal a potential short-term trend change. The pair may then rise to $0.32, then to $0.37.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Bitcoin‘s on-chain metrics are flashing contradictory signals this week, with strong ETF demand clashing against rising bearish positioning in derivatives markets, according to Glassnode’s latest Market Pulse report released April 20.
BTC traded at $75,342 as of April 19, down 0.76% over 24 hours after retreating from a six-week high near $78,000 earlier in the week. The pullback aligns with what Glassnode describes as “a blend of contrasting signals” across spot, futures, and options markets.
Spot Markets: Buyers Present, But Sellers Gaining Ground
The spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has flipped from positive to negative, signaling increased selling pressure. Yet buyer interest remains strong enough to potentially buffer against significant price declines, the report notes. Trading activity on centralized exchanges has picked up, suggesting traders aren’t sitting on the sidelines.
Derivatives Tell a Different Story
Futures open interest has climbed, indicating traders are taking on more risk. But the direction of that risk has shifted bearish. Long-side funding payments have declined significantly, while perpetual CVD has dropped sharply. Translation: traders are paying a premium to short Bitcoin, and buy-side aggression has cooled.
Options markets offer a counterpoint. Demand for downside protection has decreased, suggesting the most bearish hedging activity may be fading. Open interest contraction in options could mean profit-taking or position closures are underway.
ETF Flows Remain a Bright Spot
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continue showing strength. The ETF MVRV ratio has increased alongside positive netflows, pointing to enhanced profitability for ETF holders and sustained institutional interest. Trading activity in these regulated products has notably increased.
This tracks with broader observations that ETF inflows are returning to Bitcoin even as spot markets show selling pressure—a dynamic that’s kept prices supported despite the retreat from recent highs.
Long-Term Holders Aren’t Budging
On the liquidity front, Hot Capital Share has declined while Realized Cap Change remains negative but improving. This indicates older, more dormant capital is dominant, with net outflows easing. The Short-Term Holder to Long-Term Holder Supply Ratio remains stable, suggesting long-term holders maintain confidence despite recent volatility.
Improvements in Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) and Percent Supply in Profit signal potential stabilization, with reduced pessimism across the market. However, the Realized Profit to Loss Ratio has dropped, indicating some fear-driven selling persists.
What Traders Should Watch
Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 hit 0.74 in early March, and the asset continues trading more like equities than digital gold. The $76,000-$78,000 resistance zone remains the key technical level. A sustained break above could shift the derivatives positioning that’s currently leaning bearish.
For now, the market sits in a tug-of-war: institutional demand through ETFs versus short-term bearish positioning in futures. Which side wins likely determines whether Bitcoin retests its recent highs or consolidates further around current levels.
US stocks saw modest downside as the week began, but the losses remained modest, while oil began retracing an initial move toward $90.
CFDs on WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The repositioning came a day after US President Donald Trump announced a fresh round of negotiations over Iran in Pakistan.
“My Representatives are going to Islamabad, Pakistan — They will be there tomorrow evening, for Negotiations,” he wrote in a post on Truth Social on Sunday.
Trump appeared to dismiss the significance of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, calling its announcement “strange.”
Source: Truth Social
Responding, crypto trading company QCP Capital suggested that markets had already readjusted expectations of the war’s outcome and timeline for it.
“Despite the pullback in spot alongside renewed tensions, volatility has stayed notably subdued, hovering near year-to-date lows,” it wrote in its latest “Market Color” update.
“This disconnect between realised risk and implied pricing suggests investors are recalibrating expectations toward a more episodic pattern of escalation: on-and-off disruptions around the Strait, paired with cycles of rhetoric and de-escalation. In effect, markets are beginning to price duration rather than intensity, pointing to a conflict that may be more protracted than initially assumed, but still contained within current bounds.”
Bitcoin’s recent local highs, he suggested, were simply a result of buying pressure from Strategy and speculative traders, with sellers stepping in to take profit, halting the rally.
“Where does that leave price? Not far,” he summarized in an X thread.
BTC/USD chart with STH cost-basis data. Source: J. A. Maartunn/X
Maartunn said that BTC/USD remained stuck below “key resistance,” including the cost basis of short-term holders (STHs) near $83,000.
“Long-Term Holders keep accumulating, and Strategy isn’t done yet,” he acknowledged.
“The key question: is it enough to push Bitcoin higher? For now, this still looks like a bear market rally… But a strong breakout could quickly shift the trend.”
BTC/USDT three-day chart. Source: J. A. Maartunn/X
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, including forward-looking statements, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content.
VIDT’s RSI bounce from oversold territory creates a narrow window for recovery to $0.008-0.012 over the next two weeks, but failure here sends the token into sub-penny oblivion where most retail ca…
Market Context: Why VIDT is Moving Now
VIDT sits in crypto purgatory – too beaten down to ignore, too risky for serious money. The token’s recent collapse has created the kind of technical setup that either launches spectacular recoveries or completes total capitulation. With most altcoins showing signs of life, VIDT remains stubbornly near zero, suggesting either maximum pain has been reached or the project has lost fundamental relevance.
The current price action resembles other tokens that faced similar crossroads – some like LUNA went to zero, others like DOGE found unexpected second lives. VIDT’s fate hinges on whether its oversold bounce can gain momentum or peters out into another leg down.
Indicator Alignment
The technical picture shows a token caught between salvation and destruction. VIDT’s RSI emerging from deeply oversold conditions provides the raw material for a bounce, but the broader trend structure remains hostile to bulls. Price continues trading below all meaningful resistance levels, creating a situation where any recovery faces immediate selling pressure from trapped holders.
The momentum indicators paint a picture of exhaustion rather than accumulation. While oversold conditions can persist longer than logic suggests, they also create the foundation for violent reversals when sentiment shifts. VIDT’s compressed volatility suggests the next major move will be decisive – either breaking higher toward previous support levels or collapsing into penny stock territory.
Strategic Positioning
VIDT faces a binary outcome over the next two weeks. Either the token musters enough buying interest to reclaim the $0.008-0.012 range, establishing a base for further recovery, or it succumbs to selling pressure and trades into sub-penny levels where liquidity disappears and recovery becomes nearly impossible.
The setup favors aggressive position sizing only for traders comfortable with total loss scenarios. VIDT represents a classic “lottery ticket” trade – small position size with massive upside potential if the recovery scenario plays out. The token’s beaten-down state means any positive catalyst could generate outsized returns, but the flip side involves watching positions evaporate completely.
Risk management becomes critical here. Entry above $0.005 with tight stops below $0.003 offers reasonable risk-reward for momentum traders betting on oversold bounces. Patient accumulation strategies make little sense given VIDT’s uncertain fundamental outlook and technical weakness. This trade demands conviction – either you believe in the bounce setup enough to risk meaningful capital, or you stay away entirely.
RavenDAO’s RAVE token lost over 98% of its value over the weekend, and the hourly chart now warns of another massive drop in the coming days.
Key takeaways:
RAVE chart hints at 50%-plus drop next
On the hourly chart, RAVE continues to trade inside a descending channel, with lower highs and lower lows forming between two downward-sloping trend lines.
As of Monday, the spot price was retreating after testing the channel’s upper boundary, a sign that sellers remain active on rallies. If that rejection holds, RAVE could slide toward the channel’s lower trend line in the near term.
A Fibonacci extension drawn from the latest bounce at the lower boundary to the recent pullback from the upper boundary points to the 1.618 extension as the next bearish objective.
That level comes in near $0.30, implying a further 55%–58% decline from current prices in April or by May.
Notably, the same setup correctly anticipated Sunday’s drop toward $0.49, reinforcing the channel’s relevance.
RAVE/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
Meanwhile, the 20-hour exponential moving average at $0.96 and the 1.0 Fib line at $0.94 continue to cap upside attempts. Unless the bulls reclaim these levels decisively, the broader bias remains tilted to the downside.
Market manipulation claims add to RAVE risks
RAVE’s technical weakness is unfolding alongside mounting allegations of market manipulation, with market watchers comparing it to the LUNA and WAVES pump-and-dumps from 2022.
Onchain investigator ZachXBT described the token’s explosive rally and subsequent collapse as a “blatant” pump-and-dump, allegedly orchestrated across major exchanges including Binance, Bitget and Gate.io.
Source: ZachXBT
He flagged roughly 23 million RAVE tokens (worth around $23 million) moving from a team-linked multisig wallet to Bitget deposit addresses shortly before a 40% flash crash, and has since maintained a $25,000 bounty for whistleblowers.
Still, ZachXBT has doubled down on his claims, arguing that over 90% of the token’s supply may be controlled by insiders, raising concerns about liquidity concentration and price control.
Source: X
A few days ago, RaveDAO revealed plans to sell portions of unlocked tokens to fund operations, marketing and hiring.
The team said it is considering price- or performance-based lock mechanisms to better align incentives, adding that “building a movement requires resources.”
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