Crypto exchange Coinbase is working on creating a website for a prediction markets platform, according to a tech researcher who posted screenshots seemingly indicating it will be backed by Kalshi.
Jane Manchun Wong, a tech researcher and blogger known for discovering in-development features on Big Tech sites, posted to X on Tuesday that Coinbase is “working on a prediction market,” and shared multiple screenshots apparently showing the platform.
In one screenshot, it states that the prediction market is offered by Coinbase Financial Markets, the derivatives arm of Coinbase Global, through the prediction market Kalshi.
The other images show a typical prediction market interface splashed with Coinbase’s logo, along with an FAQ section and a branded guide explaining the offering.
Coinbase told CNBC in July that it plans to offer prediction markets as part of its bid to create an “everything exchange.” Coinbase and Kalshi partnered on Nov. 13, with the exchange acting as the custodian for Kalshi’s USDC (USDC)-based event contracts.
Coinbase and Kalshi didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Wong is known for discovering unreleased features from platforms, including Facebook, Instagram and X, by scouring a website’s public source code for clues.
In the screenshots shared by Wong, Coinbase is apparently set to allow USDC or US dollars on the prediction markets, set to include events pertaining to economics, sports, science, politics and technology. It also hints that new markets will be added regularly.
Prediction markets have become one of the hottest crypto offerings this year, with volumes on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket surging.
Many of Coinbase’s crypto exchange rivals have also been looking to cash in on the trend by partnering with existing platforms or developing their own offerings.
Crypto.com recently started offering a prediction markets platform, which is set to be integrated with Trump Media.
Crypto exchange Gemini is also planning to launch a prediction markets platform as part of an initiative to create a “super app,” and said last week that it filed to become a designated contract market with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to offer the platform.
Federal Reserve balance-sheet limits and possible repo operations point to improving liquidity conditions that could boost Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Fiscal strain and sector weakness currently weigh on markets, but easing tariffs and a targeted stimulus plan may support a recovery in crypto demand.
Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market could remain under pressure ahead of the upcoming US Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Dec. 10. Expectations for the direction of monetary policy remain highly split, with concerns over inflation clashing against signs of slowing economic activity.
Fed target rate probabilities for December FOMC. Source: CME FedWatch Tool
Traders are divided between a 0.25% cut and keeping rates steady at 4%, based on implied odds on government bond markets. The more cautious Fed members argue that US President Donald Trump’s tariffs have added inflation pressure, reducing the room to ease rates and support growth. At the same time, the US job market shows clear signs of cooling, according to reports from BlackRock.
Blaming Bitcoin’s weakness solely on Fed appears misguided
Concerns with sticky inflation have been regularly cited by Fed officials. “I worry that restrictive monetary policy is weighing on the economy, especially about how it is affecting lower-and middle-income consumers,” Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday. Waller dismissed rumors that the missing official data, resulting from the government shutdown, has hurt the Fed’s visibility.
Still, blaming Bitcoin’s weakness only on the Fed seems inaccurate, given that the downtrend started in early October. US import tariffs helped narrow the monthly government deficit, and the Fed’s balance sheet continued to shrink, causing the US dollar to strengthen against a basket of major currencies. Historically, Bitcoin holds an inverse correlation to the dollar Index (DXY).
Inverse US Dollar Index (red) vs. BTC/USD (right). Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph
Pinpointing the exact trigger behind Bitcoin’s weakness since the Oct. 6 all-time high is nearly impossible. Financial conditions worsened as freight activity slowed, housing markets softened, and companies faced tighter cash flows, according to a Savvy Wealth report. As a result, Bitcoin’s decline may stem more from broad risk aversion than from dollar strength alone.
The Fed has signaled that it will no longer allow its assets under management to fall below the current $6.5 trillion, starting in December. This move could be offset by the launch of repurchase agreement (Repo) operations. In practice, the Fed’s balance sheet stays unchanged while cash is injected into financial markets, easing liquidity concerns by adding reserves to banks.
Total assets in the US Federal Reserve balance sheet, USD millions. Source: Fed
Meanwhile, Trump has directed US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to prepare a stimulus campaign aimed at lower-income households for early 2026, and import tariffs may be gradually reduced to lower inflation risks. Still, fiscal conditions worsen in 2026 as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act takes effect.
Bitcoin may rebound strongly as liquidity eventually returns
By the start of the year, there should be far less uncertainty in the economic outlook, for better or worse. Currently, weaknesses are evident in the real estate and auto sectors, both of which are placing significant pressure on regional banks. Bitcoin and other riskier assets have already reacted defensively, but they stand to benefit the most once liquidity returns.
Money market funds as a percentage of GDP. Source: ING
Bitcoin is not hostage to US monetary policy, especially with a weakening job market. The Fed has limited room to act while fiscal conditions stay tight, leaving expansionist measures as its fallback. Over time, liquidity is expected to return to markets, helping to mitigate a sharper economic impact and creating a more favorable environment for a strong rally in scarce assets.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Traditionally tied to the last five trading days of December and the first two of January, the Santa Rally now influences Bitcoin and major altcoins as seasonal optimism, low liquidity and renewed risk appetite shape year-end trading.
With institutional desks quiet during the final week of December, even small retail trades can move prices. Social media narratives, year-end bonuses and FOMO often amplify that effect.
Retail traders chase narratives, quick trends and speculative opportunities, while whales focus on risk management, balance-sheet adjustments and optimizing capital ahead of the new year.
The slowdown in institutional activity increases price sensitivity, making retail-driven surges in Bitcoin, tech stocks and speculative tokens appear more powerful than they actually are.
The Santa Claus rally, which covers the last trading days of December and the first few days of January, has interested market experts for years. The trend has now spread to cryptocurrencies. This period of end-of-year optimism, low trading volume and increased risk appetite can push prices sharply higher.
What leads to this phenomenon: individual traders or large investors? In the current market, which includes drivers like exchange-traded funds (ETFs), institutional flows and online traders, understanding the dynamics behind the Santa Rally becomes even more important.
This article explains what the Santa Rally is and how holiday periods influence investor behavior among both retail and institutional participants. It explores when each group tends to dominate trading and how to read the indicators that shape the rally.
What is the Santa Rally?
Traditionally, the Santa Rally refers to the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January, a period that has often produced strong gains in US stocks. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) has posted increases during this window in most years since the 1950s.
This pattern is no longer limited to stocks. Major cryptocurrencies also tend to perform well in late December, supported by renewed investor interest, reduced activity from large institutions and new funds entering the market at the start of the year.
Solana (SOL), for instance, traded at $56 on Dec. 24, 2023, and rallied to $105 by Jan. 5, 2024. Gold often benefits from similar seasonal trends in late December as investors adjust portfolios and increase demand for safe assets.
Who are the main participants in a Santa Rally?
The Santa Rally is driven by a mix of market forces and investor psychology. Here are the key groups whose actions contribute to the positive momentum.
Whales and institutions: Whales include major cryptocurrency holders, spot ETFs, hedge funds, pension funds, companies and market makers. These participants trade in large amounts, follow set rules and operate with structured plans. They adjust portfolios at year-end, manage risk levels and often use derivatives to protect or increase their positions.
The objectives of these groups differ significantly:
Retail traders focus on price trends, narratives and fear of missing out (FOMO).
Whales focus on year-end reporting, risk controls and efficient use of capital.
Did you know? Crypto never sleeps. Unlike stock markets that close on weekends and public holidays, Bitcoin trades nonstop worldwide. This round-the-clock activity creates unique patterns like “weekend volatility,” where prices can move more sharply because institutional trading desks are offline.
How holiday inactivity amplifies small investor impact
Retail traders are often seen as sparking year-end rallies because the last week of December typically has less activity from major institutions. With many professional desks quieter during the holidays, even small amounts of retail buying can move prices more than usual.
Why the holidays favor retail participation
There are several reasons for increased retail participation during the holidays:
Lower activity from institutions allows retail trades to have a greater impact.
Optimism for the new year encourages more risk-taking and new deposits on trading platforms.
Narratives like “Santa Rally,” “December increase” and the “January effect” spread quickly on social media.
End-of-year bonuses and savings often lead to retail purchases.
Smaller tokens that tend to react quickly to market sentiment.
Since retail traders often follow rising prices, these investments can grow quickly. This can create the impression of a coordinated rally even when the moves are mostly emotional and short-term in nature.
Did you know? On platforms such as X, Reddit and Telegram, a single viral post can move a token’s price before official news outlets catch up. This speed of narrative-driven trading has contributed to the rise of memecoins, social trading and so-called attention markets.
Institutional whales and the year-end crypto surge
Although retail may start a rally, whales often determine its size.
Growth of institutional investments has increased greatly
Since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched, institutional investments have become a major force in cryptocurrency markets. Large ETF purchases of Bitcoin can lift the broader market. When pension funds and institutional managers add riskier assets in late December or early January, the resulting inflows often create wider and longer-lasting rallies.
Year-end rebalancing
Whales follow organized steps:
Pension funds and asset managers adjust portfolios to meet target levels.
Hedge funds change risk levels and close short positions before the new year.
Institutions with strong performance may increase risk to prepare for January activity.
These adjustments can produce large buy orders that significantly affect markets during low-volume periods.
Derivatives and advanced trading
Whales also influence derivatives markets, including futures, options and perpetual contracts. A single hedge fund adjusting or protecting a position can shift funding rates, trigger short squeezes or set off chain reactions in holiday markets. These moves can sometimes look like retail-driven excitement even when they originate from institutional risk management strategies.
When retail leads and when whales dominate
Both groups influence the Santa Rally, but their impact shifts depending on market conditions.
Scenario 1: Retail-led Santa Rally
Retail tends to dominate when:
These situations often create fast, unstable price movements. They are most visible in memecoins, small-cap stocks and higher-risk assets.
Scenario 2: Whale-led Santa Rally
Whales tend to lead when:
ETF investments increase
Hedge funds expect policy changes, such as rate cuts
Institutions make major portfolio adjustments
Derivatives funding improves.
This usually results in steadier, broader rallies and stronger gains in Bitcoin, Ether (ETH) and large alternative coins.
Scenario 3: Combined regime (the most common today)
In current markets, the typical pattern is combined:
Retail creates the story and initial momentum.
Usually, whales provide the capital to maintain or expand the rally.
Recognizing this interaction is essential for forecasting December performance.
Did you know? Futures, perpetual swaps and options now dominate global crypto trading volumes. Perpetual futures in particular have no expiry date, making them a favorite among sophisticated traders. Funding rates from these markets often serve as early indicators of trend strength or potential reversals.
How to read the 2025 Santa Rally indicators in real time
As the 2025 Santa Rally unfolds, you need to track specific indicators and data points to gauge its strength and sustainability.
Retail indicators to watch
Search trends for cryptocurrencies and meme assets
Volatility indexes such as the CBOE volatility index (VIX) and the Bitcoin volatility index (BVIX)
Global fund flows.
Together, these indicators provide a clearer view of which group is guiding the markets.
Risk control: Don’t let the Santa Rally wreck your investments
Holiday markets often experience low volume, heightened emotions and sudden reversals. These conditions can make price movements unpredictable, so understanding the risks is important for anyone observing the market.
Common considerations during this period include:
Being aware that lower liquidity can exaggerate price swings
Recognizing that sentiment-driven moves may not last
Understanding that leverage, if used, can increase both gains and losses
Keeping in mind that seasonal rallies can end abruptly
Noting when momentum appears to cool or stabilize.
The Santa Rally can be an interesting seasonal pattern, but it is not guaranteed. Relying solely on historical behavior without considering current market conditions can lead to misunderstandings about potential outcomes.
Web3 startup aPriori has gone quiet after fresh allegations over its latest token airdrop, as onchain analysts flag unusually concentrated distribution patterns.
About 60% of the recent aPriori (APR) token airdrop was claimed by a single entity across 14,000 interconnected cryptocurrency wallets, according to blockchain analytics platform Bubblemaps.
The wallets were freshly funded through crypto exchange Binance with 0.001 BNB (BNB) each over a short period, Bubblemaps said. All of the addresses then sent their APR allocations to new wallets.
The mysterious entity that claimed 60% of the airdrop allocations was still funding new wallets to claim more of these tokens, Bubblemaps said in a Nov. 11 X post.
APriori launched its airdrop claim on Oct. 23, shortly before the BNB Chain-native token surpassed $300 million in market capitalization. About 12% of the APR token supply was allocated to the airdrop.
In August, aPriori raised $20 million to expand its trading infrastructure platform, with participation from Pantera Capital, HashKey Capital and Primitive Ventures among others, bringing its total funding to $30 million.
The San Francisco–based company was founded in 2023 by former quant traders and engineers with experience at Coinbase, Jump Trading and Citadel Securities.
APriori goes silent after insider activity allegations
APriori has yet to address the allegations related to the airdrop. Since the Oct. 23 airdrop claim announcement, its official X page has only published a single unrelated post on Sunday.
“Still no reply from the co-founder, the way they have given zero transparency makes them look no different from scammers,” wrote onchain sleuth ZachXBT in a Tuesday X post.
However, the high concentration of the airdrop’s distribution is not necessarily due to insider activity, but may also hint at a sophisticated airdrop farmer.
In crypto, a professional airdrop farmer (or squatter) is an entity that interacts with emerging protocols solely for the airdrop rewards, often using multiple wallets to compound rewards.
In March 2023, it was revealed that airdrop hunters consolidated $3.3 million worth of tokens from Arbitrum’s ARB airdrop from 1,496 wallets into just two wallets they had controlled.
El Salvador, the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, says it has bought more than $100 million in BTC despite pledging to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to limit public exposure to the asset as part of a loan agreement.
According to data from El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office, the government acquired 1,090 Bitcoin (BTC) worth more than $100 million on Tuesday. The purchase comes after the IMF said in a July report that the Central American nation had not bought any new Bitcoin since the organization approved a $1.4 billion loan program at the end of 2024.
According to El Salvador’s Bitcoin reserve data, the country’s Bitcoin holdings went from 5,968 BTC on Dec. 18, 2024 — when the government inked a deal with the IMF — to over 7,474 BTC following its latest purchase announcement.
El Salvador’s reserves were valued at roughly $683 million at the time of writing, despite Bitcoin losing ground after falling 28% from an all-time high of over $126,000 in early October to $96,000 at the time of writing.
The move follows comments in July from Quentin Ehrenmann, general manager at My First Bitcoin — a non-governmental organization focused on Bitcoin adoption — who said that El Salvador’s Bitcoin reserve had a limited impact on the broader population. He said that “since the government entered into this contract with the IMF, Bitcoin is no longer legal tender, and we haven’t seen any other effort to educate people.”
“The government, apparently, continues to accumulate Bitcoin, which is beneficial for the government — it’s not directly good for the people.“
The IMF and the Salvadoran government did not respond to Cointelegraph’s requests for comment by publication.
Data from El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office appears to show that the government has continued to accumulate BTC since signing the IMF agreement. The IMF also requested that the country restrict Bitcoin purchases in early March, in accordance with the terms of the previous loan agreement.
Still, a letter of intent signed by El Salvador’s central bank president and Minister of Finance — quoted in the aforementioned July IMF report — claims that the Central American country bought no Bitcoin since the 2024 loan.
The IMF report explained that Chivo “does not adjust its Bitcoin reserves to reflect changes in clients’ Bitcoin deposits,” which led to “minor” discrepancies that made it appear that El Salvador’s public sector was accumulating BTC.
The letter, signed by Salvadoran officials, further stated that “in line with commitments under the program, the stock of Bitcoins held by the public sector remains unchanged.” It also promised that steps to reduce exposure are being taken.
“We are taking steps to mitigate fiscal risks by reducing the public sector’s role in the Chivo wallet and reframing the Bitcoin project.”
Those assurances came before the latest — and unusually large — Bitcoin purchase. Even so, the government has continued to suggest it was steadily accumulating BTC before this week’s buy, raising fresh questions over how closely it is adhering to the IMF deal and how its Bitcoin reserves are being reported.
El Salvador, the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, says it has bought more than $100 million in BTC despite pledging to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to limit public exposure to the asset as part of a loan agreement.
According to data from El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office, the government acquired 1,090 Bitcoin (BTC) worth more than $100 million on Tuesday. The purchase comes after the IMF said in a July report that the Central American nation had not bought any new Bitcoin since the organization approved a $1.4 billion loan program at the end of 2024.
According to El Salvador’s Bitcoin reserve data, the country’s Bitcoin holdings went from 5,968 BTC on Dec. 18, 2024 — when the government inked a deal with the IMF — to over 7,474 BTC following its latest purchase announcement.
El Salvador’s reserves were valued at roughly $683 million at the time of writing, despite Bitcoin losing ground after falling 28% from an all-time high of over $126,000 in early October to $96,000 at the time of writing.
The move follows comments in July from Quentin Ehrenmann, general manager at My First Bitcoin — a non-governmental organization focused on Bitcoin adoption — who said that El Salvador’s Bitcoin reserve had a limited impact on the broader population. He said that “since the government entered into this contract with the IMF, Bitcoin is no longer legal tender, and we haven’t seen any other effort to educate people.”
“The government, apparently, continues to accumulate Bitcoin, which is beneficial for the government — it’s not directly good for the people.“
The IMF and the Salvadoran government did not respond to Cointelegraph’s requests for comment by publication.
Data from El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office appears to show that the government has continued to accumulate BTC since signing the IMF agreement. The IMF also requested that the country restrict Bitcoin purchases in early March, in accordance with the terms of the previous loan agreement.
Still, a letter of intent signed by El Salvador’s central bank president and Minister of Finance — quoted in the aforementioned July IMF report — claims that the Central American country bought no Bitcoin since the 2024 loan.
The IMF report explained that Chivo “does not adjust its Bitcoin reserves to reflect changes in clients’ Bitcoin deposits,” which led to “minor” discrepancies that made it appear that El Salvador’s public sector was accumulating BTC.
The letter, signed by Salvadoran officials, further stated that “in line with commitments under the program, the stock of Bitcoins held by the public sector remains unchanged.” It also promised that steps to reduce exposure are being taken.
“We are taking steps to mitigate fiscal risks by reducing the public sector’s role in the Chivo wallet and reframing the Bitcoin project.”
Those assurances came before the latest — and unusually large — Bitcoin purchase. Even so, the government has continued to suggest it was steadily accumulating BTC before this week’s buy, raising fresh questions over how closely it is adhering to the IMF deal and how its Bitcoin reserves are being reported.
AAVE price prediction points to $208 recovery target within one week as technical indicators show oversold bounce potential from current $170.80 level.
AAVE Price Prediction Summary
• AAVE short-term target (1 week): $208.54 (+21.8% from current $170.80)
• Aave medium-term forecast (1 month): $226-$246 range (+32-44% upside potential)
• Key level to break for bullish continuation: $217 (20-day SMA resistance)
• Critical support if bearish: $161.96 (Bollinger Band lower support)
Recent Aave Price Predictions from Analysts
Recent AAVE price prediction consensus among top analysts shows remarkable alignment on near-term recovery potential. Blockchain.News maintains the most optimistic short-term view with a $208.54 target within one week, citing oversold technical conditions as the primary catalyst. CoinCodex offers a slightly more conservative Aave forecast of $194.60 by November 22, 2025, representing a 13.9% upside from current levels.
The medium-term outlook becomes more bullish, with analysts projecting an AAVE price target range between $226-$246. This optimism stems from fundamental catalysts including MiCA regulatory approval enabling EU-regulated stablecoin access and the upcoming V4 protocol upgrade introducing modular liquidity hubs. The $25 billion increase in Total Value Locked (TVL) provides additional fundamental support for these elevated targets.
Notably, all recent predictions carry medium confidence levels, reflecting the current market uncertainty while acknowledging the strong technical setup for a recovery bounce.
AAVE Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Oversold Recovery
Current Aave technical analysis reveals a textbook oversold setup primed for a relief rally. With AAVE trading at $170.80, the token sits just 5.5% above the Bollinger Band lower support at $161.96, indicating extreme oversold conditions. The RSI reading of 35.88 confirms this oversold state without reaching extreme levels, suggesting room for recovery momentum.
The MACD histogram at -2.6293 shows bearish momentum is still present but potentially weakening. More importantly, the Stochastic oscillator readings (%K: 8.75, %D: 7.66) indicate AAVE is in deeply oversold territory, historically a strong contrarian signal for short-term rebounds.
Volume analysis shows $41.1 million in 24-hour trading volume, indicating sufficient liquidity to support a recovery move. The price action has created a significant gap between the current level and all major moving averages, with the 7-day SMA at $181.32 representing the first major resistance hurdle.
Aave Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for AAVE
The primary AAVE price target of $208.54 represents a 21.8% upside move that aligns with historical oversold bounce patterns. This target coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline and provides a realistic short-term objective.
For the bullish scenario to unfold, AAVE must first reclaim the $181.32 level (7-day SMA), followed by a break above $200.68 (20-day SMA). Success at these levels would open the path to the $226-$246 medium-term range, where the 50-day SMA ($229.34) provides natural resistance.
The upcoming V4 upgrade and regulatory developments could serve as fundamental catalysts to drive price action beyond technical resistance levels, potentially targeting the $237.07 immediate resistance zone.
Bearish Risk for Aave
Despite the oversold setup, downside risks remain if AAVE fails to hold the critical $161.96 Bollinger Band support. A decisive break below this level could trigger additional selling toward the $150 psychological support and ultimately the strong support zone at $79.51.
The bearish scenario would be confirmed by a breakdown below the current pivot point at $172.78, especially if accompanied by increasing volume. In this case, the Aave forecast would shift to target the $164.91 immediate support level as the next major test.
Should You Buy AAVE Now? Entry Strategy
Based on current Aave technical analysis, a staged entry approach offers the best risk-reward profile. The primary buy zone exists between $164.91-$170.80, with the strongest entry signal occurring on a bounce from the Bollinger Band lower support at $161.96.
Conservative traders should wait for confirmation above the $181.32 resistance (7-day SMA) before establishing positions, targeting the $208.54 level for a 15% gain from the breakout point. Aggressive traders can accumulate current levels with tight stop-losses below $161.96.
Risk management dictates position sizing should not exceed 2-3% of portfolio allocation given the current volatility (ATR: $19.00). The question of whether to buy or sell AAVE depends on individual risk tolerance, but technical conditions favor buyers over sellers at current oversold levels.
AAVE Price Prediction Conclusion
The AAVE price prediction for the next week targets $208.54 with medium confidence, representing a 21.8% upside potential from current levels. This forecast relies on the technical oversold bounce thesis supported by RSI readings below 40 and proximity to Bollinger Band lower support.
Key indicators to monitor include RSI movement above 45 for bullish confirmation and MACD histogram improvement from current bearish readings. A failure to hold $161.96 support would invalidate the bullish Aave forecast and shift focus to lower targets around $150.
The prediction timeline spans 5-7 trading days for the initial $208.54 target, with the extended $226-$246 range achievable within 3-4 weeks if fundamental catalysts align with technical recovery. Current market conditions favor a tactical bounce play rather than a major trend reversal, making this an attractive short-term trading opportunity for risk-tolerant investors.
Bitcoin’s fall has resulted in three consecutive weeks of outflows from crypto ETPs, indicating a negative sentiment.
Several altcoins are struggling to start a rebound, indicating a lack of demand from buyers.
Bitcoin (BTC) attempted a recovery to start the week, but the long wick on the candlestick shows selling at higher levels.
Several analysts believe that the market is likely to bottom soon and that the worst is over. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley said in a post on X that BTC has been in a bear market for the past six months, which is about to end. He added that the setup for crypto “has never been stronger.”
However, crypto sentiment platform Santiment cautioned in a report that “true bottoms often form when the majority expects prices to fall further” and not when there is a consensus about a “specific price bottom.”
Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView
Traders should keep a close eye on crypto investment products, which have witnessed three consecutive weeks of outflows totaling $3.2 billion. Last week alone saw $2 billion in outflows, the largest weekly outflows since February, according to a report from CoinShares. Sustained buying into crypto ETPs will be needed for a meaningful recovery.
Could BTC extend its decline, pulling altcoins lower or is a recovery around the corner? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
S&P 500 Index price prediction
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating indecision between the bulls and the bears.
If the price turns down and breaks below the support line, it signals the start of a deeper correction toward 6,550 and then 6,400. The pattern target of the break from the triangle is 6,276.
Alternatively, if the price continues higher and breaks above the resistance line, it indicates the resumption of the uptrend. The index may rally to 7,000 and then to the target objective of 7,220.
US Dollar Index price prediction
The US Dollar Index (DXY) turned down from the 100.50 overhead resistance level on Nov. 5 but is taking support at the 20-day exponential moving average (99.32).
If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA with strength, the likelihood of a break above the 100.50 level increases. The index could then climb to the 102 level, where the bears are again expected to mount a strong defense.
Sellers will have to pull the price below the 50-day simple moving average (98.57) to gain the upper hand. If they do that, the index may consolidate between 100.50 and 96.21 for a while longer.
Bitcoin price prediction
BTC is attempting to take support at the $93,000 level, but the lack of a solid rebound indicates that the bears continue to exert pressure.
Any recovery attempt is expected to face selling at the psychological level of $100,000. If the price turns down from $100,000, it suggests that the bears have flipped the level into resistance. That heightens the risk of a drop to $87,800 and subsequently to $83,000.
Time is running out for the bulls. They will have to swiftly drive the Bitcoin price above the 20-day EMA ($102,022) to weaken the bearish momentum. The BTC/USDT pair may then climb to the 50-day SMA ($109,927).
Ether price prediction
Ether (ETH) has been trading below the breakdown level of $3,350, but the bears have failed to sink the price below $3,000.
The ETH/USDT pair could rise to the 20-day EMA ($3,444), where the bears are expected to sell aggressively. If the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, the pair risks a break below $3,000. If that happens, the Ether price may plunge to $2,500.
Contrarily, if buyers kick the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($3,871). A close above the 50-day SMA suggests that the corrective phase may be ending.
XRP price prediction
XRP (XRP) has been falling inside a descending channel pattern, indicating that the bears continue to sell on rallies.
There is minor support at $2.15, but if the level cracks, the XRP/USDT pair could plummet to the support line of the channel. Buyers are expected to aggressively defend the support line, as a break below it may sink the pair to $1.61.
On the upside, a break and close above the 50-day SMA ($2.52) suggests that the bulls are attempting a comeback. A short-term trend change will be signaled after buyers achieve a close above the downtrend line.
BNB price prediction
BNB (BNB) is attempting to stay above the $860 level, but the recovery is expected to face selling at the 20-day EMA ($983).
If the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, the bears will again try to sink the BNB/USDT pair below the $860 level. If they manage to do that, the BNB price could collapse to $730.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it suggests that the selling pressure is reducing. The pair may then rise to the 50-day SMA ($1,082).
Solana price prediction
Solana (SOL) has been gradually sliding toward the solid support at $126, indicating that the bears remain in control.
Any recovery attempt is expected to face selling at the 20-day EMA ($159). If the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, the risk of a break below $126 increases. The Solana price could then dive to $95.
Instead, if the price breaks above the 20-day EMA, it signals solid demand at lower levels. The SOL/USDT pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA ($186), where the bears are expected to step in.
If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA ($0.17), the likelihood of a drop to $0.14 increases. Buyers are expected to defend the $0.14 level with all their might, as a break below it could sink the Dogecoin price to $0.10.
On the contrary, a break and close above the 20-day EMA suggests that selling dries up near $0.14. The DOGE/USDT pair may then rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.19). Such a move indicates that the pair could extend its stay inside the $0.14 to $0.29 range for some more time.
Cardano price prediction
Cardano (ADA) dipped below the $0.50 support on Friday, indicating that the bears remain in charge.
The bulls are attempting to push the Cardano price back above the breakdown level of $0.50. If they succeed, the ADA/USDT pair could ascend to the 20-day EMA ($0.55). Sellers will try to halt the recovery at the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the bears will try to extend the decline to $0.40.
A minor positive for the bulls is that the RSI is attempting to form a positive divergence. That suggests the selling pressure is reducing. If buyers clear the hurdle at the 20-day EMA, the pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.65).
Hyperliquid price prediction
Hyperliquid (HYPE) has been trading between the 50-day SMA ($41.78) and the $35.50 support for the past several days.
This tight-range trading is expected to culminate in a range expansion, but it is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout. If the price pierces the 50-day SMA, the HYPE/USDT pair could surge to $52.
Conversely, if the price drops below $35.50, it signals that the bears have overpowered the buyers. That could accelerate selling and sink the Hyperliquid price to $30.50 and subsequently to $28.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
To be clear, Brazil’s National Treasury and central bank are not adding Bitcoin to the country’s sovereign reserves. There is also no law requiring government bodies or state-owned firms to hold Bitcoin (BTC).
What is happening instead is a patchwork of city initiatives, listed companies and new market infrastructure coming online:
In the following sections, we’ll outline the “whats,” the “whys” and the risks involved.
Brazil sits firmly near the top of the list for crypto adoption in 2025
Did you know? B3 (short for Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão) is Brazil’s main stock exchange, formed in 2017 through the merger of São Paulo’s securities, futures and commodities exchanges. It is one of the largest market infrastructures in the world and the first in Latin America to list a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
What has Brazil built so far?
Brazil has spent the past few years building regulated, familiar ways to access Bitcoin.
In 2021, B3 listed Latin America’s first spot Bitcoin ETF (QR Asset’s QBTC11), giving institutions an auditor-friendly instrument without requiring self-custody from day one. Derivatives followed.
In mid-2025, B3 reduced the Bitcoin futures contract size from 0.1 BTC to 0.01 BTC to broaden participation and improve hedging. The change was formally implemented on June 16, 2025, through circular and public notice.
Product innovation kept pace. Asset managers launched hybrid funds that blend Bitcoin and gold on B3, showing that regulators and the exchange are comfortable hosting crypto-linked products in public markets.
The rulebook is maturing alongside the products. In November 2025, the central bank published detailed standards for VASPs covering licensing, AML/CFT, governance, security and consumer protection, with enforcement starting in February 2026.
For treasurers, that reduces operational uncertainty as they rely on ETFs, futures and regulated intermediaries.
Why Brazilian treasurers are doing this
Treasury teams are trying to smooth earnings and protect purchasing power in a market where the Brazilian real can swing sharply on policy decisions and external shocks.
A small Bitcoin allocation, held through audited instruments, adds a liquid, non-sovereign hedge alongside dollars and local notes without requiring new custody operations.
It’s also about using familiar pipes. Spot ETFs and listed futures on B3 let treasurers size, rebalance and hedge within the same governance and audit routines they use for other assets. The smaller 0.01-BTC futures contract makes hedging more precise and cheaper to implement at a treasury scale.
There’s a governance blueprint now. Méliuz showed the sequence boards want to see: shareholder approval → clear disclosure → execution → additional capital to scale the position. That reduces career risk for other chief financial officers considering a pilot allocation.
Access matters for those who can’t hold crypto directly. OranjeBTC’s B3 listing gives equity exposure to a large on-balance-sheet BTC position, allowing institutions to participate through a listed vehicle while staying within mandate.
Finally, the regulatory arc lowers operational uncertainty. With the central bank’s VASP standards covering licensing, AML/CFT, governance and security set to take effect in February 2026, treasurers can rely on licensed intermediaries and documented controls rather than bespoke crypto infrastructure.
Did you know? A spot Bitcoin ETF is a fund that holds actual Bitcoin and lets you buy shares of that Bitcoin on a stock exchange, just like any other ETF. It gives you price exposure, daily liquidity and audited custody without managing your own wallet or keys, which is why treasurers and institutions often prefer it over holding coins directly.
The risks and how Brazil is addressing them
Brazil knows the risks and is tightening the playbook.
Market volatility: Bitcoin can swing hard, so treasurers that opt in usually cap position sizes, set rebalancing rules and use listed hedges. B3’s smaller 0.01-BTC futures, effective June 16, 2025, make it easier to hedge profit and loss and liquidity shocks with finer precision.
Operational and counterparty risk: Self-custody, exchange exposure and vendor security are not trivial. The central bank’s new VASP standards push crypto intermediaries toward traditional-finance norms.
Legal and enforcement clarity: Prosecutors and regulators need predictable tools when crypto intersects with criminal cases. A new bill would let financial institutions liquidate seized crypto, aligning treatment with foreign exchange and securities processes and reducing gray areas in enforcement.
Public optics and disclosure: “Bitcoin treasury” remains politically sensitive. Listed paths pull companies into auditor-vetted reporting and continuous disclosure on exposure, custody and risk. That transparency helps boards and regulators get comfortable as the market matures.
How Brazil compares: BTC treasury pathways
BTC treasury paths across regions
What other nations can learn
Remember, Brazil wrote rules. The central bank set clear criteria for when crypto-fiat conversions are treated as foreign exchange and raised standards for VASPs across AML/CFT, governance, security and consumer protection.
Ship simple access products early. QBTC11 and its peers launched in 2021, giving institutions a familiar, audited instrument instead of forcing them to build custody from scratch. With an ETF path, treasurers can size exposure within existing mandates.
Add hedging tools for risk managers. In June 2025, B3 cut the Bitcoin futures contract size to 0.01 BTC. Smaller contracts make hedges cheaper and tighter, allowing boards to approve them and treasury teams to manage value at risk (VaR) and drawdowns with more precision.
Encourage disclosure norms via public vehicles. Listed “Bitcoin-treasury” companies such as Méliuz and OranjeBTC create reference points for audits, board processes, impairment policies and reporting cadence. These become templates others can copy.
Pilot below the federal level. City or agency pilots surface political and accounting questions early. Rio’s 1% signal in 2022 showed how quickly optics become the story and why mandates and risk limits must be explicit.
The sequence is straightforward: write the rulebook, introduce plain-vanilla access products, downsize derivatives to support hedging and allow disclosure standards to develop in public markets. Only then does the conversation about putting BTC in the treasury become meaningful.
The Trump Organization and London-listed luxury real estate developer Dar Global are debuting a tokenized luxury hotel development project in the Maldives, one of the world’s most exclusive holiday destinations.
The Trump Organization and Dar Global are tokenizing the development of a luxury hospitality project, introducing an “unprecedented financial innovation,” according to a joint announcement on Monday.
Unlike most tokenized real-estate projects, which fractionalize ownership of completed or near-completed properties, the initiative will allow investors to gain exposure at the earliest stages of development.
The new resort, Trump International Hotel Maldives, is set to open by the end of 2028. Located 25 minutes by speedboat from Malé, the resort will feature about 80 luxury beach and overwater villas for travelers seeking the “highest levels of privacy, exclusivity and sophistication.”
The development plans aim to capitalize on the advantages of the emerging real-world asset tokenization sector, which mints tangible assets on the blockchain ledger, offering more investor access through fractionalized shares and 24/7 trading opportunities.
Trump International Hotel Maldives. Source: PRNewswire
Trump Organization to set a “new benchmark” for tokenized real estate investments: Eric Trump
The new resort development initiative will set a “new benchmark for tokenized real estate investments, according to Eric Trump, executive vice president of The Trump Organization.
“This development will not only redefine luxury in the region but also set a new benchmark for innovation in real estate investment through tokenization,” he said.
The Trump Organization did not immediately respond to a request for comment on what specific investment opportunities will be made available through the tokenized model.
“Tokenizing the development of Trump International Hotel Maldives marks a global first that blends luxury, innovation, and technology in a way that will transform how the world invests in hospitality,” said Ziad El Chaar, CEO of Dar Global.
The development comes as Trump-linked cryptocurrency ventures have gained traction during US President Donald Trump’s second term. As of Oct. 16, the Trump family’s crypto-related businesses, including World Liberty Financial (WLFI) and the Official Trump (TRUMP) and Melania Meme (MELANIA) tokens, had reported roughly $1 billion in pre-tax profit.
