Blockchain technology is an effective medium for administering social benefit programs, but key compliance challenges remain, according to Julie Myers Wood, CEO of compliance and monitoring consulting firm Guidepost Solutions.
Guidepost Solutions advised the Republic of the Marshall Islands’ government on a regulatory compliance and sanctions framework for its USDM1 bond, a tokenized debt instrument issued by the government, backed 1:1 by short-term US Treasuries.
The Marshall Islands government launched a Universal Basic Income (UBI) program in November 2025 that distributes quarterly benefits to citizens directly through a mobile wallet. Wood told Cointelegraph:
“Any benefit that is currently being distributed through analog means should be explored for a digital delivery option for several reasons. Digital delivery speeds up the process and can provide an auditable trail for provisioning and expenditures.”
The market for non-US tokenized government debt instruments continues to grow. Source: RWA.XYZ
Regulatory compliance and sanctions challenges remain as the tokenized bond market grows
The cost reduction and near-instant settlement times for tokenized bonds and other onchain instruments democratize access to the financial system for individuals who lack access to traditional banking infrastructure.
However, anti-money laundering (AML) requirements and sanctions compliance are two of the biggest regulatory risks for governments issuing onchain bonds to the public, Wood told Cointelegraph.
Governments issuing tokenized bonds must also collect know-your-customer (KYC) information to ensure that funds are directed to the proper recipients, she added.
The tokenized US Treasury market grew by over 50x since 2024, according to data from crypto analysis platform Token Terminal.
The tokenized US Treasury market has grown by over 50x since 2024. Source: Token Terminal
The tokenized bond market could surge to $300 billion, according to a forecast from Lamine Brahimi, co-founder of Taurus SA, an enterprise-focused digital asset services company.
Reduced settlement times, transaction costs and asset fractionalization, which allows individuals to purchase fractions of a financial asset, all expand investor access to the global financial system, Brahimi told Cointelegraph.
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AAVE trades at $127.75 with neutral RSI at 47.69. Technical analysis suggests recovery toward $135-140 resistance zone within 4-6 weeks, contingent on breaking above $133.71.
While specific analyst predictions from major KOLs are limited in recent data, earlier forecasts from January 2026 provide context for current price action. Caroline Bishop projected an AAVE price prediction targeting the $190-$195 range by February 2026, citing oversold RSI recovery and analyst targets up to $213. However, with AAVE currently trading at $127.75, this bullish scenario has not materialized.
Joerg Hiller’s analysis suggested AAVE could rally 18-25% from previous levels around $167, which would align more closely with current technical resistance zones. According to on-chain data from major analytics platforms, AAVE’s trading patterns show consolidation after significant volatility, with institutional interest remaining steady despite price corrections.
AAVE Technical Analysis Breakdown
The current technical picture for AAVE presents a mixed but cautiously optimistic outlook. With the RSI at 47.69, AAVE sits in neutral territory, neither overbought nor oversold, providing room for upward movement without immediate resistance from momentum indicators.
The MACD histogram at 0.0000 indicates bearish momentum has stalled, potentially signaling a transition period. While not immediately bullish, this flattening suggests selling pressure may be diminishing. The Stochastic indicators show %K at 91.49 and %D at 73.19, indicating the token may be approaching overbought conditions in the short term.
AAVE’s position within the Bollinger Bands at 0.52 places it slightly above the middle band ($126.11), suggesting moderate bullish positioning. The upper band at $159.98 represents a significant upside target, while the lower band at $92.23 provides downside context for risk assessment.
Key resistance levels emerge at $133.71 for immediate price action and $139.66 for stronger resistance. Support levels are identified at $116.96 immediately and $106.16 for stronger support, providing clear technical boundaries for the Aave forecast.
Aave Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
In a bullish scenario, AAVE price prediction points toward initial targets of $133-135, representing a break above immediate resistance. Successfully clearing $133.71 could trigger momentum toward the stronger resistance at $139.66, potentially extending to $145-150 if volume supports the move.
Technical confirmation would require sustained trading above the 20-day SMA at $126.11, coupled with RSI moving above 55 and MACD histogram turning positive. The 24-hour trading volume of $15.1 million provides adequate liquidity for such moves.
Bearish Scenario
Bearish risks emerge if AAVE fails to hold current levels above $126. A breakdown below immediate support at $116.96 could trigger further selling toward $106.16. The significant gap between current price and the 200-day SMA at $220.78 indicates longer-term bearish pressure remains.
Risk factors include broader DeFi sector weakness and potential regulatory concerns affecting lending protocols. The daily ATR of $10.83 suggests continued volatility, requiring careful position management.
Should You Buy AAVE? Entry Strategy
For traders considering AAVE positions, current levels around $127-128 offer reasonable entry points with defined risk parameters. Conservative buyers might wait for a pullback to $122-124 near the pivot point for better risk-reward ratios.
Stop-loss levels should be placed below $116.96 to limit downside exposure, representing approximately 8-9% risk from current levels. Take-profit targets can be set in stages: first at $133-135, then $139-140 for more aggressive positions.
Risk management suggests position sizing should account for AAVE’s volatility, with the ATR indicating daily moves of approximately $10-11. Dollar-cost averaging over several days may reduce entry risk given current consolidation patterns.
Conclusion
The AAVE price prediction for the coming weeks suggests cautious optimism, with technical indicators supporting a move toward $135-140 within the next month. However, traders should remain aware that cryptocurrency predictions carry inherent uncertainty, and this Aave forecast should be combined with proper risk management.
The neutral RSI and stabilizing MACD provide a foundation for potential upside, but breaking key resistance levels will be crucial for sustained gains. Current market conditions favor patient accumulation over aggressive speculation.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are speculative and should not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
US President Donald Trump’s media conglomerate, Trump Media & Technology Group, has filed paperwork with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for two new exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to major cryptocurrencies.
According to a Friday announcement by its Truth Social Funds arm, the company plans to launch the Truth Social Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETF alongside the Truth Social Cronos (CRO) Yield Maximizer ETF. The filing has not yet taken effect and remains subject to SEC review.
“We plan to provide an investment platform for investors covering multiple aspects of digital and crypto investing with both capital appreciation and income opportunities,” Steve Neamtz, president of Yorkville America Equities, which will act as investment adviser for both funds, said.
The funds would be developed in partnership with crypto exchange Crypto.com, which is expected to provide custody, liquidity and staking services if regulators approve the products. Investors would access the ETFs through the exchange’s broker-dealer, Foris Capital US LLC. Each product is expected to charge a 0.95% management fee.
Proposed ETFs to track BTC, ETH and CRO with staking rewards
The Bitcoin and Ether fund aims to track the combined performance of the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, while also capturing staking rewards generated by Ether. The Cronos Yield Maximizer ETF, meanwhile, is designed to follow the performance of CRO, the native token of Crypto.com’s Cronos blockchain, and include staking income.
In April last year, Trump Media announced a deal with Crypto.com and Yorkville America Digital to launch a set of “Made in America” ETFs combining digital assets and traditional securities, including sectors such as energy.
In September, the firm also reached a deal with Crypto.com to create a joint treasury entity centered on accumulating the CRO token, beginning with an initial purchase of about 684.4 million CRO worth roughly $105 million through a mix of stock and cash.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs see weeks of consecutive outflows
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen four consecutive weeks of net outflows, with the latest weekly figure showing $360 million in withdrawals, according to data from SoSoValue.
The data also shows volatile but net-negative flows across late January and early February. The largest recent withdrawals included $817.87 million on Jan. 29, $509.70 million on Jan. 30 and $544.94 million on Feb. 4. Positive sessions were smaller, such as inflows of $561.89 million on Feb. 2, $371.15 million on Feb. 6, $166.56 million on Feb. 10 and $145.00 million on Feb. 9, with only $15.20 million entering on Friday.
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Ether holds $2,000, but may remain under pressure as traders watch corporate earnings, US government debt and growing global tensions.
Key takeaways:
Institutional demand for Ether is cooling as investors shift toward the safety of short-term US government bonds.
High interest rates and rising ETH supply make the current staking yield less attractive for long-term holders.
Ether (ETH) price has failed to sustain levels above $2,150 since Feb. 5, leading traders to fear a further correction. Investor sentiment deteriorated following outflows from Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and increased demand for put (sell) options.
US-listed Ether ETFs saw $242 million in net outflows between Wednesday and Thursday, reversing the trend from the prior two days. The institutional demand that followed the 20% Ether price recovery after the $1,744 bottom on Feb. 6 has faded as investors noted inconsistency in US economic growth—evident by the growing demand for short-term US government bonds.
Yields on the US 2-year Treasury declined to 3.42% on Friday, nearing the lowest levels seen since August 2022. The higher demand for government-backed debt reflects traders’ expectations of further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) throughout 2026. Signs of economic stagnation reduce inflationary risks, paving the way for expansionist measures.
Regardless of macroeconomic trends, Ether has underperformed the broader cryptocurrency market, causing traders to question if Ethereum still has what it takes to compete against networks that offer base layer scalability and faster onchain activity.
Traders fear that ETH price is destined for more downside, but data seems to reflect the recent price weakness rather than the anticipation of a further crash.
ETH/USD (orange) vs. total crypto capitalization (blue). Source: TradingView
Ether price declined 38% in 30 days, which negatively pressures the network’s fees and ultimately reduces incentives for staking. Long term holding is a critical component for sustainable price growth, and the current 2.9% staking yield is far from appealing, considering the US Fed target rate stands at 3.5%. Furthermore, the ETH supply is growing at an 0.8% annualized rate.
ETH derivatives metrics reflect traders’ fear of further price drops
Professional traders are not comfortable holding downside price exposure according to ETH derivatives metrics, which further reinforces the bearish sentiment.
ETH 30-day options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch
The ETH options delta skew stood at 10% on Friday, meaning put (sell) options traded at a premium. The increased demand for neutral-to-bearish strategies causes the indicator to move above the 6% threshold, which has been the norm for the past two weeks. Traders’ mood reflects a six-month bear market as ETH trades 58% below its all-time high.
From a broader perspective, a mere $242 million in Ether ETF outflows represents less than 2% of the total $12.7 billion in assets under management; hence, traders should not assume that ETH price has entered a death spiral. Investors’ morale will eventually recover as the network remains the absolute leader in Total Value Locked (TVL).
Traders’ attention will likely remain centered on corporate earnings results and whether the US government will be able to refinance its debt amid growing global socio-economic tensions. Under this scenario, ETH price will likely remain pressured regardless of onchain and derivatives metrics.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Crypto companies and platforms that provide stablecoin rewards have become a major point of contention in the CLARITY crypto market structure bill.
The banking industry should not be threatened by crypto companies offering stablecoin yield to customers, and both sides must compromise on the issue, according to White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt.
Witt said it was “unfortunate” that the issue of stablecoin yield has become a major point of contention between the crypto industry and banks, adding that crypto service providers sharing yield with customers does not threaten the banking industry’s business model or market share. He told Yahoo Finance:
“They can also offer stablecoin products to their customers, just the same as crypto. This is not an unfair advantage in either way, and many banks are now applying for OCC bank charters themselves to start offering bank-like products to their customers.
White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt provides an update on the CLARITY bill negotiations. Source: Yahoo Finance
In the future, I don’t think this is going to be an issue,” he continued, adding, “I think they’re going to find opportunities to use these products and leverage them and offer new products to their customers and expand their businesses.”
The ability of crypto service providers and platforms to offer rewards to customers who hold stablecoins has emerged as one of the most significant pain points for the industry, contributing to delays in passing the CLARITY market structure bill.
Time is running out on passing the CLARITY Act, Witt and others warn
The proposed CLARITY Act establishes clear regulatory jurisdiction over crypto markets between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and also creates an asset taxonomy for cryptocurrencies.
However, government officials and industry executives have warned that the looming 2026 US midterm elections could derail efforts to pass it into law and threaten to roll back crypto regulations established by the administration of US President Donald Trump.
“I think if the Democrats were to take the House, which is far from my best case, then the prospects of getting a deal done will just fall apart,” US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Friday.
“There’s a window here. The window is still open, but it is rapidly closing,” Witt said, adding that the White House Crypto Council is aiming to have the CLARITY Act signed into law before the midterms “take all of the oxygen out of the room.”
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CryptoQuant data shows Ether futures open interest (OI) across all major exchanges has dropped by over 80 million ETH in the past 30 days.
Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, recorded the largest decline of about 40 million ETH (50%) over the last 30 days.
Ether’s OI on Gate exchange fell by more than 20 million ETH (25%), while Bybit and OKX saw declines of 8.5 million ETH and 6.8 million ETH, respectively. Cumulatively, the four major platforms saw a total decline of about 75 million ETH, while other platforms accounted for the remaining five million ETH, confirming that the phenomenon is widespread and not limited to a single exchange.
This suggests that leverage traders are “reducing their exposure rather than opening new positions,” CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain said in a Quicktake analysis.
This significant drop in OI amid dropping prices can be “viewed as a clean-up of weaker positions, thereby reducing the likelihood of sharp forced liquidations later on,” the analyst said, adding:
“This environment may pave the way for a period of relative stability or the formation of a more solid price base for Ethereum in the near future.”
ETH open interest 30-day change. Source: CryptoQuant
Ether futures funding rates on Binance have plunged deep into negative territory at -0.006, marking the lowest value recorded since early December 2022.
“It indicates that the bearish sentiment has reached an extreme peak not seen in the last three years,” CryptoQuant contributor CryptoOnchain said in a Thursday Quicktake analysis.
Historically, extreme negative funding rates at major price support levels often precede a short squeeze.
“When the crowd is this convinced that prices will fall further, the market tends to move in the opposite direction to liquidate late bears,” the analyst said, adding:
“Current data suggests we may be witnessing a classic capitulation event, mirroring the bottom formation of late 2022, potentially setting the stage for a sharp recovery.”
Ether futures finding rates. Source: CryptoQuant
As Cointelegraph reported, Ether’s surging network activity and rising institutional investor inflows are significant tailwinds for any short-term ETH price gains.
ETH price technicals: Bulls must keep Ether above $2,000
The ETH/USD pair broke out of a falling wedge on the four-hour chart, to trade at $2,050 at the time of writing.
The measured target of the falling wedge, calculated by adding the wedge’s maximum height to the breakout point at $1,950, is $2,150.
Higher than that, the price may rise to retest the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at $2,260 and later toward $2,500.
On the downside, a key area to hold is the $2,000 psychological level, embraced by the 50-period SMA, as shown in the chart below.
The Glassnode cost basis distribution heatmap reveals a significant support area recently established between $1,880 and $1,900, where investors acquired approximately 1.3 million ETH.
ETH cost basis distribution heatmap. Source: Glassnode
As Cointelegraph reported, Ether accumulation addresses witnessed a surge in daily inflows as ETH dropped below $2,000 last week, signalling strong investor confidence in its long-term potential.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Bitcoin is attempting a comeback, which is expected to face stiff resistance at the breakdown level of $74,508.
Several major altcoins are attempting a recovery, signaling that lower levels are attracting buyers.
Bitcoin (BTC) has risen above $68,500, as buyers attempt to form a higher low near $65,000. According to Glassnode, BTC is stuck between the true market mean at $79,200 and the realized price near $55,000. The onchain data provider expects the range-bound action to continue until a major catalyst pushes the price either above or below the range.
Standard Chartered also had a muted forecast for BTC. It lowered BTC’s target to $100,000 from $150,000 for 2026. The bank expects BTC to fall to $50,000 over the next few months, followed by a recovery for the remainder of the year.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView
Several analysts also say that BTC has not yet bottomed out. Crypto analyst Tony Research said in a post on X that BTC will bottom in the $40,000 to $50,000 zone, possibly “between mid-September and late November 2026.”
Could BTC and the major altcoins start a recovery? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price prediction
BTC turned up from $65,118 on Thursday, indicating demand at lower levels. The bulls will try to push the price to the breakdown level of $74,508.
If the Bitcoin price turns down sharply from the $74,508 level, it suggests that the bears remain active at higher levels. That may keep the BTC/USDT pair between $74,508 and $60,000 for a few days. On the downside, a break below the $60,000 support may sink the pair to $52,500.
Alternatively, if buyers thrust the price above $74,508, it suggests that the selling pressure is reducing. The pair may then rally to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($85,046).
Ether price prediction
Buyers are attempting to push and maintain Ether (ETH) above the $2,000 level, but the bears have kept up the pressure.
If the price turns down from the current level or the $2,111 resistance, it suggests that the bears are aggressively defending the level. The Ether price may then retest the critical support at $1,750. If the level cracks, the ETH/USDT pair may extend the decline to the next major support at $1,537.
On the upside, buyers will have to swiftly push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($2,297) to signal a comeback. If they manage to do that, the pair may ascend to the 50-day SMA ($2,800).
BNB price prediction
BNB (BNB) continues to gradually slide toward the strong support at $570, which is a vital level to watch out for.
If the BNB price plunges below the $570 support, it signals the start of the next leg of the downtrend toward the psychological level of $500.
However, the relative strength index (RSI) is in oversold territory, indicating that a relief rally is possible in the near term. If the price turns up from the current level, the bulls will attempt to push the BNB/USDT pair above the $669 level. If they can pull it off, the pair may march toward the 20-day EMA ($710).
XRP price prediction
XRP (XRP) has been clinging to the support line of the descending channel pattern, increasing the risk of a breakdown.
If that happens, the XRP price may drop to the $1.11 level. This is a critical level for the bulls to defend, as a break below it may resume the downtrend. The XRP/USDT pair may then fall to $1 and subsequently to $0.75.
Contrarily, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the20-day EMA ($1.55), it suggests that the pair may remain inside the channel for some more time. Buyers will have to achieve a close above the downtrend line to signal a potential trend change.
Solana price prediction
Solana (SOL) is trying to find support at the $77 level, but the bears are likely to sell on rallies.
The SOL/USDT pair may reach the breakdown level of $95, where the bears are expected to pose a strong challenge. If the price turns down sharply from the $95 level, it suggests that the bears have flipped the level into resistance. The Solana price may then plummet to the $67 level.
Conversely, if buyers push the price above the $95 level, the pair may rally to the 50-day SMA ($119). That suggests the break below the $95 level may have been a bear trap.
Dogecoin price prediction
Dogecoin (DOGE) is attempting to bounce off the $0.09 level, but the bears continue to sell on minor rallies.
If the Dogecoin price turns down and breaks below $0.09, the DOGE/USDT pair may drop to the $0.08 level. This is a crucial level for the bulls to defend, as a break below it may extend the downtrend to $0.06.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA ($0.10). The pair may then rally to the breakdown level of $0.12, which is likely to act as stiff resistance. A break above the $0.12 level opens the doors for a rally to $0.16.
Bitcoin Cash price prediction
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) broke below the $497 support on Thursday, but the bulls failed to sustain the lower levels.
The bulls are attempting to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($536) but are expected to face significant resistance from the bears. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA and breaks below $493, the BCH/USDT pair may plunge toward the $443 level.
On the contrary, if the price breaks and closes above the 20-day EMA, it suggests demand at lower levels. The Bitcoin Cash price may then rally to the 50-day SMA ($581), where the bears are again expected to mount a strong defense.
The flattish 20-day EMA and the RSI just above the midpoint suggest a balance between supply and demand. Buyers will have to propel the Hyperliquid price above the $35.50 level to indicate that the corrective phase may have ended. The HYPE/USDT pair may then ascend to $44.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the 50-day SMA ($27.25), it signals that the bears have an edge. The pair may then slump to the $20.82 support.
Cardano price prediction
Cardano (ADA) remains inside the descending channel pattern, indicating that the bears remain in charge.
The bears will attempt to strengthen their position by pulling the price below the support line and the $0.22 level. If they manage to do that, the ADA/USDT pair may descend to $0.20 and later to $0.15.
Instead, if the Cardano price turns up from the current level and breaks above the 20-day EMA ($0.29), it signals that the pair may remain inside the channel for some more time. Buyers will seize control on a close above the channel.
Monero price prediction
Monero (XMR) is facing resistance at the breakdown level of $360, but the bulls have not ceded much ground to the bears.
That increases the likelihood of a break above $360. If that happens, the bears will again try to halt the recovery at the 20-day EMA ($385). However, buyers are likely to have other plans. They will try to pierce the 20-day EMA, clearing the path for a rally toward the 50-day SMA ($460).
This positive view will be negated in the near term if the Monero price continues lower and breaks below $309. The XMR/USDT pair may then plummet to $276, which is likely to attract buyers.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Cryptocurrency wallet makers and security companies are pushing out post-quantum products even though large-scale quantum computers capable of breaking Bitcoin do not exist yet.
The US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) finalized its first post-quantum cryptography standards in 2024 and called for migrations before 2030.
As standards bodies plan for a gradual cryptographic transition, parts of the wallet market are already monetizing that future.
“I do feel that it is a bit of a fear tax. We know that quantum computers are far away — still five to 15 years away,” Alexei Zamyatin, co-founder of Build on Bitcoin (BOB), told Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin is trading roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high. Among the handful of theories attempting to explain crypto’s recent decline is a growing concern that quantum computing risks may be deterring institutional capital from Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s 2026 decline pulled the cryptocurrency below $70,000. Source: CoinGecko
The quantum risk is not zero, and it is not sudden
The quantum vulnerability often discussed is Bitcoin’s Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm, which authorizes transactions. In theory, a powerful quantum computer could derive a private key from an exposed public key and claim the coins sitting in an address.
Today’s quantum hardware isn’t capable of breaking the elliptic curve signatures. But that doesn’t mean threat actors are waiting around for a technical breakthrough.
“Many users expect a single ‘Q-Day’ in the future when cryptography suddenly fails. In reality, risk accumulates gradually as cryptographic assumptions weaken and exposure increases,” Kapil Dhiman, CEO and co-founder of Quranium, told Cointelegraph.
“Harvest now, decrypt-later strategies are already active, meaning data and signatures exposed today are being collected against future capability,” he said.
In Bitcoin’s case, the concern is for older exposed public keys. Once a public key appears onchain, it remains permanently visible. Modern address formats obscure public keys until coins are spent.
The CoinShares researcher said 1.62 million BTC is in wallets holding under 100 BTC, which would take too long to unlock. Source: CoinShares
The quantum fear business
While the Bitcoin community debates how far away quantum computing is, crypto wallet makers are operating on their own clock.
Trezor’s Safe 7 is marketed as a “quantum-ready” hardware wallet. Separately, qLabs recently introduced the Quantum-Sig wallet, which it claims embeds post-quantum signatures directly into its signing process.
Crypto wallet makers are already rolling out quantum-ready hardware. Source: Trezor
BOB’s Zamyatin argued that wallet-level defenses would not solve Bitcoin’s quantum risk. Bitcoin transactions are authorized using a signature scheme embedded in the protocol itself. If that cryptography were ever broken, the fix would require a protocol-level change.
“I personally wouldn’t invest a lot of money into a quantum wallet right now because I don’t even know what protection it gives me for Bitcoin. It can’t really give me any protection, in my opinion, because Bitcoin doesn’t have a quantum-resistant signature scheme yet.”
Ada Jonušė, executive director at qLabs, agreed that full quantum resilience requires protocol-level defense. However, brushing off modern infrastructure as a fear tax overlooks the transitional nature of security upgrades.
“Quantum risk is not binary. Even before a protocol-level migration occurs, there is a real ‘harvest now, decrypt later’ threat,” she told Cointelegraph, claiming that qLabs’ approach reduces exposed key surface.
“Quantum readiness is about proactive infrastructure planning, not fear monetization,” Jonušė said.
Trezor also admitted that blockchains themselves need to change their cryptography and protocol. But Tomáš Sušánka, the company’s chief technology officer, told Cointelegraph that wallets can implement protections right away instead of waiting for protracted blockchain upgrades.
“Once the blockchains upgrade, wallets must also support the same algorithms to remain compatible,” Sušánka said. He added that Trezor Safe 7 uses a post-quantum algorithm to protect against future quantum computers forging digital signatures and signing malicious firmware updates.
Market incentives and Bitcoin’s governance hurdle
Unlike iPhones, which are released almost every year, hardware wallets and other security products typically have multi-year product lifecycles. Introducing post-quantum features in a new product gives a reason for customers to buy a new device, even if the threat is distant.
“Yes, parts of the crypto industry do have incentives to amplify quantum risk, but that incentive is increasingly driven by regulatory and institutional alignment, not short-term sales alone,” said Dhiman, whose Quranium powers the Qsafe wallet.
“For most users, quantum-secure wallets today function as long-term insurance. The responsible approach is to acknowledge the transition ahead, avoid urgency driven by fear and choose systems designed to evolve without forcing abrupt replacements.”
Several blockchains are advancing with post-quantum strategies, but Bitcoin has been relatively hesitant. Some of the network’s most influential voices have brushed off the threat as a problem for the future.
Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum has a widely recognized figurehead. Co-founder Vitalik Buterin has advocated for post-quantum preparations, and the network has been steering in that direction.
For Bitcoin, the issue is social consensus, coordination and the willingness to act, according to Zamyatin.
“It’s not like [Bitcoin has] one person that everyone will follow. It will require a broad social consensus, which is very hard to achieve,” he said.
Wallet makers agree that full quantum protection has to come from the protocol. But even if the risk is years away, they can act as insurance to help investors sleep better at night, though some argue they amount to a fear tax.
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Israeli authorities have arrested and indicted two people for allegedly using secret information to place bets on the predictions market Polymarket related to Israel striking Iran.
In a joint statement on Thursday, Israel’s Defense Ministry, its internal security service Shin Bet, and police said a military reservist and a civilian were arrested after an investigation found that the reservist obtained classified information to place the bets.
The prosecutor’s office will pursue criminal charges for security-related offenses, bribery, and obstruction of justice. Authorities said the reservist was working for Shin Bet.
Prediction markets have seen major insider trading scandals this year after a Polymarket user won a bet that Nicolás Maduro would be ousted as Venezuelan president hours before he was captured by US forces, profiting around $400,000.
The Israeli state-owned news outlet Kan reported last month that the Polymarket user “ricosuave666” placed several bets related to Israel’s military operations in Iran in June 2025, but it’s unknown if those arrested are behind the account.
The account reportedly wagered tens of thousands of dollars and earned over $152,300, betting on markets such as “Israel strike on Iran on June 24” and “Israel military action against Iran by Friday,” with the latter winning over $128,700.
Trades placed by Polymarket user ricosuave666 related to Israel’s attacks on Iran. Source: Kan
Prediction markets lead to real security risks when misused
Lawmakers worldwide have raised concerns that insider knowledge could be exploited in prediction markets, undermining market integrity and eroding public trust.
Israel’s Ministry of Defense said bets based on secret information pose a “real security risk for Israel Defense Forces activity and national activity,” adding that Israel’s military, security and police units will continue to pursue action against anyone who uses classified information illegally.
A lawyer representing the reservist told Bloomberg that the indictment is “flawed,” adding that the charge of harming national security has been dropped.
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BTC open interest falls to $34 billion, but stable BTC-denominated volume suggests leverage demand remains unchanged.
Weak US jobs data and Bitcoin options skew indicate a bearish shift, even as gold and stocks show relative strength.
Bitcoin (BTC) price has struggled to sustain levels above $72,000 for the past week, leading investors to question whether institutional demand has evaporated. The aggregate Bitcoin futures open interest plummeted to its lowest level since November 2024, fueling fears of a retest of the $60,000 support amid growing uncertainty.
BTC futures aggregate open interest, USD. Source: CoinGlass
The aggregate BTC futures open interest hit $34 billion on Thursday, a 28% drop from 30 days prior. However, when measured in Bitcoin terms, the metric remains virtually flat at BTC 502,450, suggesting that demand for leverage has not actually decreased. Part of this decline is also attributable to forced liquidations, which totaled $5.2 billion over the past two weeks.
Investors are increasingly frustrated by the lack of a clear catalyst for Bitcoin’s 28% decline over the last month, especially as gold reclaimed the $5,000 psychological level and the S&P 500 traded just 1% below its all-time high. Some analysts argue that this risk-aversion stems from emerging signs of weakness in the US labor market.
The US Labor Department revealed on Wednesday that the US economy added only 181,000 jobs in 2025, a figure weaker than previously reported. However, the White House has downplayed these concerns. According to the BBC, officials argue that the slowdown in population growth resulting from its immigration policies has reduced the number of jobs the US needs to create.
US weekly initial jobless claims (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: Tradingview
Bitcoin’s record 52% crash on March 13, 2020, occurred during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic fears, which anticipated a surge in jobless claims. If economic growth is currently at risk, odds are the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sooner than anticipated. This reduces companies’ cost of capital and eases financing conditions for consumers, which helps explain the stock market strength seen in 2026.
The lack of confidence in Bitcoin is evident through the weak demand for bullish leveraged positions, making the decoupling from traditional markets even more worrisome.
The annualized funding rate on Bitcoin futures held below the neutral 12% threshold for the past four months, signaling fear. Thus, even as the indicator recovered from the negative levels of the prior week, bears continue to have the upper hand. Professional traders remain unwilling to take downside price risk exposure, according to Bitcoin options markets.
BTC 30-day options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch
The BTC options delta skew at Deribit surged to 22% on Thursday as put (sell) instruments traded at a premium. Under normal circumstances, the indicator should range between -6% and +6%, reflecting balanced upside and downside risk aversion. This skew metric last flipped bullish in May 2025 after Bitcoin reclaimed the $93,000 level following a retest of $75,000.
While derivatives metrics reflect weakness, the $5.4 billion average daily trading volume in US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) contradicts speculation that institutional demand is fading. Although it is impossible to predict what will cause buyers to display strength, Bitcoin’s recovery likely depends on improved visibility into the US job market conditions.
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