Arkham data shows a wallet cluster holding 644 million SIREN, about 88% of the 728 million circulating supply, raising manipulation concerns.
Crypto token Siren surged 340% in the last week, amid claims that a large portion of the circulating supply may be concentrated among a small group of wallets.
Siren markets itself as the “first AI analyst agent deployed on BNB Chain.” At the time of writing, CoinGecko data shows SIREN trading at $2.81, up over 340% from $0.63 on March 16. In the past month, the token exploded by nearly 1,300% from $0.22. The rally drew scrutiny after analysts said a large share of the token’s supply may be concentrated in a small group of wallets, a dynamic that could amplify volatility if confirmed.
Citing an unverified custom entity created by Arkham Intelligence, onchain analyst EmberCN said the party cornered nearly all spot supply to profit off contracts. He said this was the secret behind the token’s surge in the past month.
According to the Arkham Intelligence page, the entity holds 644 million SIREN (worth around $1.8 billion). The amount accounts for 88% of the entire circulating supply of 728 million tokens.
Unverified entity holding 644 million SIREN tokens. Source: Arkham Intelligence
Crypto analysts point to wallet clustering
On X, pseudonymous crypto analyst Mlmabc warned his followers on Sunday to be careful trading the token, adding that “supply is heavily cornered.” Mlmabc said a cluster of wallets is currently sitting on $950 million in unrealized profit, implying that it could dump the tokens on potential buyers.
Citing his own Dune Analytics dashboard, Bitcoin Strategy analyst Gerhard Kuschnik said most of the Siren token trading activity over the last month, when SIREN surged, was not from new users. Kuschnik said these were trading activities by existing holders, arguing that the token is not gaining new interest.
“The vast majority of trading happens by returning users,” adding that the average new user that bought into the token during its surge averaged between 100 and 200.
Siren’s users per day chart in the past month. Source: Gerhard Kuschnik
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
While specific analyst predictions are limited for the current period, on-chain metrics suggest AAVE is approaching oversold territory. According to technical data from major exchanges, the token has declined 2.49% in the past 24 hours, bringing it closer to significant support levels that could attract buyers.
Market data indicates trading volume remains healthy at over $4.2 million on Binance alone, suggesting continued institutional and retail interest despite the recent pullback.
AAVE Technical Analysis Breakdown
AAVE’s current technical picture presents a mixed but potentially bullish setup. Trading at $105.48, the token sits well below all major moving averages, indicating a clear downtrend that may be nearing exhaustion.
The RSI reading of 39.66 places AAVE in neutral territory but approaching oversold conditions, historically a zone where bounces occur. The MACD histogram at 0.0000 shows bearish momentum is stalling, though it hasn’t yet turned positive.
Bollinger Bands analysis reveals AAVE trading at just 0.14 position between the bands, extremely close to the lower band at $102.90. This positioning often precedes mean reversion moves toward the middle band at $111.93.
Key support emerges at $102.91, aligning closely with the Bollinger lower band, while immediate resistance sits at $107.50 and stronger resistance at $109.51.
Aave Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
If AAVE can reclaim the $107.50 level with volume, the path opens toward $109.51 resistance. A break above this level would target the 7-day SMA at $111.15, representing a 5% gain from current levels.
The ultimate bullish target remains the 50-day SMA at $115.33, which would require sustained buying pressure and broader DeFi sector strength. This Aave forecast represents approximately 9% upside potential.
Bearish Scenario
Failure to hold the critical $102.91 support could trigger further selling toward psychological support at $100. Below this level, AAVE price prediction models suggest a potential test of $95-$98 range, representing 10-15% downside risk.
The concerning factor remains the significant gap between current price and the 200-day SMA at $186.29, indicating the longer-term trend remains decidedly bearish.
Should You Buy AAVE? Entry Strategy
Current levels present a reasonable risk-reward setup for traders comfortable with DeFi exposure. Consider scaled entries between $103-$105, with a stop-loss below $102 to limit downside risk.
For conservative investors, waiting for a clear break above $109.51 with volume confirmation would provide better risk-adjusted entry, albeit with reduced upside potential.
Position sizing should remain modest given the overall bearish trend across longer timeframes.
Conclusion
This AAVE price prediction suggests a tactical bounce opportunity exists from current oversold levels, with initial targets around $109-$111 representing reasonable short-term objectives. However, any sustained bullish case requires reclaiming the 50-day SMA at $115.33.
The technical setup favors a relief rally over the next 1-2 weeks, though investors should remain cautious of the broader bearish trend. Risk management remains paramount in this volatile environment.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before investing.
Bitcoin (BTC) erased much of its US-Iran war-driven gains this week, moving back in sync with the broader downtrend in risk assets, mainly US equities.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s positive flip in S&P 500 correlation has historically preceded average declines of around 50% since 2018.
BTC is exposed to a broader risk-asset sell-off due to rising macro pressure.
As of Sunday, BTC/USD had fallen 5.65% week-to-date to about $68,700, while the S&P 500 (SPX) closed the week down 1.90%.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView
That renewed correlation is now signaling a greater risk of further downside in the Bitcoin market.
BTC drops 50% on average when it starts following stocks
The bearish warning for Bitcoin comes from a weekly correlation metric comparing BTC and the S&P 500 (SPX), the US equity benchmark index.
As of Saturday, the 20-week rolling correlation between BTC and SPX was 0.13, up from its recent nadir of around -0.5.
BTC/USD weekly chart ft correlation coefficient with SPX. Source: TradingView
Since 2018, such sharp recoveries in BTC-SPX correlation have been preceding broader Bitcoin market declines, averaging at about -50%.
“It is a warning sign that the stock market is going to collapse and take BTC with it,” said analyst Tony Severino.
In 2020 and 2022, Bitcoin’s declines lagged by several months, unfolding after classic “bull traps” in which BTC rallied alongside rising SPX correlation before reversing and wiping out those gains.
Bitcoin’s renewed correlation with equities is also coinciding with a pause in corporate accumulation.
Strategy (MSTR), one of the largest Bitcoin holders, hasn’t bought BTC via the sales of its STRC preferred stock this week, according to data resource STRC.LIVE.
Strategy’s BTC purchase in the week ending March 22. Source: STRC.LIVE
Strategy’s STRC-fueled buying helped support Bitcoin’s rally during the US–Iran war. With no fresh purchases this week, BTC is more exposed to the potential sell-off in stocks.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Bitcoin (BTC) erased much of its US-Iran war-driven gains this week, moving back in sync with the broader downtrend in risk assets, mainly US equities.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s positive flip in S&P 500 correlation has historically preceded average declines of around 50% since 2018.
BTC is exposed to a broader risk-asset sell-off due to rising macro pressure.
As of Sunday, BTC/USD had fallen 5.65% week-to-date to about $68,700, while the S&P 500 (SPX) closed the week down 1.90%.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView
That renewed correlation is now signaling a greater risk of further downside in the Bitcoin market.
BTC drops 50% on average when it starts following stocks
The bearish warning for Bitcoin comes from a weekly correlation metric comparing BTC and the S&P 500 (SPX), the US equity benchmark index.
As of Saturday, the 20-week rolling correlation between BTC and SPX was 0.13, up from its recent nadir of around -0.5.
BTC/USD weekly chart ft correlation coefficient with SPX. Source: TradingView
Since 2018, such sharp recoveries in BTC-SPX correlation have been preceding broader Bitcoin market declines, averaging at about -50%.
“It is a warning sign that the stock market is going to collapse and take BTC with it,” said analyst Tony Severino.
In 2020 and 2022, Bitcoin’s declines lagged by several months, unfolding after classic “bull traps” in which BTC rallied alongside rising SPX correlation before reversing and wiping out those gains.
Bitcoin’s renewed correlation with equities is also coinciding with a pause in corporate accumulation.
Strategy (MSTR), one of the largest Bitcoin holders, hasn’t bought BTC via the sales of its STRC preferred stock this week, according to data resource STRC.LIVE.
Strategy’s BTC purchase in the week ending March 22. Source: STRC.LIVE
Strategy’s STRC-fueled buying helped support Bitcoin’s rally during the US–Iran war. With no fresh purchases this week, BTC is more exposed to the potential sell-off in stocks.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
AAVE price prediction shows potential recovery to $114-120 range amid oversold conditions, with RSI at 41.26 signaling neutral territory and key support at $103.
While specific analyst predictions are limited in recent crypto Twitter activity, historical forecasts from early 2026 provide context for current market positioning. According to blockchain data platforms, AAVE has experienced significant volatility divergence from earlier bullish projections.
Rebeca Moen’s January 3rd analysis targeted $185-195 over 3-4 weeks, while Caroline Bishop’s January 10th Aave forecast projected $190-195 by February 2026. However, with AAVE currently trading at $107.22, these predictions highlight the extreme volatility characteristic of DeFi tokens in the current market cycle.
On-chain data from major analytics platforms suggests that AAVE’s current positioning may present oversold opportunities for patient investors, though caution remains warranted given the significant deviation from earlier analyst expectations.
AAVE Technical Analysis Breakdown
The current technical landscape for AAVE reveals mixed signals with potential for short-term recovery. At $107.22, AAVE trades below all major moving averages, with the 200-day SMA at $187.30 indicating a longer-term bearish trend.
RSI Analysis: The 14-period RSI at 41.26 sits in neutral territory, avoiding oversold conditions but showing room for upward momentum without hitting overbought levels.
MACD Indicators: The MACD histogram at 0.0000 suggests bearish momentum has stalled, potentially setting up for a reversal if buying pressure emerges.
Bollinger Bands: AAVE’s position at 0.20 within the Bollinger Bands indicates trading near the lower band ($103.83), with the upper band at $120.68 providing clear resistance targets.
Volume Profile: Daily trading volume of $3.45 million on Binance spot markets shows moderate interest, though increased volume would strengthen any breakout attempts.
Aave Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
In a bullish AAVE price prediction scenario, immediate resistance at $110.94 represents the first target, followed by strong resistance at $114.66. A sustained break above $114.66 could trigger momentum toward the 20-day SMA at $112.26 and ultimately the upper Bollinger Band at $120.68.
Key technical confirmation needed includes RSI breaking above 50, MACD histogram turning positive, and daily volume exceeding $5 million to validate any upward moves.
Bearish Scenario
The bear case for this Aave forecast centers on a break below immediate support at $105.19. Such a move could accelerate selling toward strong support at $103.16, aligning with the lower Bollinger Band at $103.83.
Risk factors include broader DeFi sector weakness, regulatory concerns affecting lending protocols, and failure to reclaim moving average support levels.
Should You Buy AAVE? Entry Strategy
Based on current technical levels, potential entry points include:
Conservative Entry: $105-107 range, near current support levels with stop-loss at $102.
Aggressive Entry: Current levels around $107.22 with tight risk management, targeting the $112-114 resistance zone.
Risk management remains crucial given AAVE’s daily ATR of $6.28, suggesting significant intraday volatility. Position sizing should account for potential 6-8% daily swings.
Conclusion
This AAVE price prediction suggests cautious optimism for a recovery toward $114-120 over the next month, supported by neutral RSI conditions and potential oversold bounce dynamics. However, the significant deviation from earlier 2026 forecasts underscores the unpredictable nature of DeFi token valuations.
Traders should focus on the $103-105 support zone as a critical level, with breaks below potentially triggering further downside. Conversely, sustained moves above $115 could signal a more substantial recovery phase.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are highly speculative and involve substantial risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
A Nevada judge has temporarily blocked Kalshi from operating in the state, finding that state authorities are reasonably likely to prevail in a legal fight over whether the company’s event contracts violate Nevada gambling laws.
Carson City District Court Judge Jason Woodbury issued a temporary restraining order on Friday, siding with a Nevada Gaming Control Board motion to block Kalshi from operating in the state for 14 days.
“Prediction markets, to the extent they facilitate unlicensed gambling, are illegal in Nevada, and we have a statutory duty to protect the public,” Nevada Gaming Control Board Chair Mike Dreitzer said in a statement to Reuters.
Kalshi did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The court’s decision comes after a federal appeals court on Thursday denied an emergency request by Kalshi to stay a federal court proceeding, allowing Nevada’s regulators to take action.
Nevada bars sports, election and entertainment event contracts
In his order, Judge Woodbury wrote that Kalshi was banned from offering sports, election and entertainment-related event contracts in Nevada.
He added that, in the record of the early stages of the case, such contracts are considered a “sports pool” under Nevada law, which Kalshi was not licensed to operate.
The Nevada Gaming Control Board sued Kalshi last month, asserting the company needed to be licensed by the state in order to offer its sports event contracts.
Kalshi argued that its contracts are under the exclusive jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, an agency that has backed prediction markets that are fighting in multiple state courts over accusations of offering illegal gambling.
“The question of federal preemption in this regard is nuanced and rapidly evolving,” Judge Woodbury wrote in his motion, rejecting Kalshi’s argument. “At the moment, the balance of convincing legal authority weighs against federal preemption in this context.”
Judge Woodbury scheduled a hearing on April 3 to consider a motion for preliminary injunction against Kalshi.
Kalshi is being sued, or has launched its own legal action, against multiple states that have accused the prediction market of operating without a state license.
A Massachusetts state judge banned Kalshi from offering sports event contracts earlier this year, which was lifted after Kalshi appealed the decision.
On Tuesday, Arizona filed criminal charges against Kalshi, with the state’s Attorney General Kris Mayes alleging Kalshi is “running an illegal gambling operation,” which Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour called a “total overstep.”
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
Bitcoin’s mining difficulty fell by around 7.7% at the latest adjustment on March 20 to 133.79 trillion at block 941,472, the sharpest drop since February, according to CoinWarz data.
The latest move takes difficulty down from around 145 trillion in mid-March and roughly 148 trillion at the start of the year. A lower difficulty means it takes less computational work to earn the same block reward, slightly improving revenue per unit of hashrate for firms that stay online.
The adjustment followed slower-than-target block production over the prior 2,016 blocks. CloverPool data showed average block times at about 12 minutes 36 seconds, well above Bitcoin’s 10-minute target, forcing the network to recalibrate lower.
Bitcoin (BTC) difficulty measures how hard it is for miners to find a valid hash for the next block and is automatically adjusted to keep issuance steady at one block every 10 minutes.
When more computing power, or hashrate, joins the network, difficulty rises to prevent blocks from being mined too quickly, while a decline in hashrate triggers a lower difficulty, making it easier for remaining miners to earn rewards.
The next difficulty adjustment is currently estimated for April 3, though that projection changes with each new block.
Miners pivot to AI as power costs bite
The difficulty reset also comes as several listed miners push further into AI and high-performance computing infrastructure in search of steadier returns on power and data-center capacity.
Last week, crypto trader Ran Neuner argued AI had become Bitcoin mining’s biggest competitor as both industries compete for electricity, even going as far as to say that “AI has killed Bitcoin forever.”
Bitcoin miners such as Core Scientific, MARA Holdings, Hut 8 and Cipher Mining have begun reallocating capacity or pivoting toward AI workloads, while some operators have reduced hashrate or shut down less efficient rigs as profitability tightens.
On Feb 21, Bitdeer liquidated 943 BTC from reserves and sold newly mined coins, cutting corporate holdings to zero. In its latest weekly update on March 21, it confirmed that its BTC holdings remained at zero.
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
NEAR Protocol trades at $1.32 with technical indicators showing mixed signals. Key resistance at $1.38 could trigger rally to $1.46, while $1.28 support holds downside risk.
What Crypto Analysts Are Saying About NEAR Protocol
While specific analyst predictions are limited for the immediate term, historical price projections from late 2025 suggested NEAR Protocol could trade between $2.82-$4.69 throughout 2026, with an average target of $4.22. However, current market conditions show NEAR trading significantly below these projections at $1.32.
According to on-chain data platforms, NEAR Protocol’s recent performance has been impacted by broader market volatility, with the token experiencing a 2.01% decline in the past 24 hours. Trading volume remains healthy at nearly $15 million on Binance spot markets, indicating sustained interest despite the price correction.
NEAR Technical Analysis Breakdown
The NEAR price prediction outlook shows mixed technical signals as the protocol navigates key price levels. Currently trading at $1.32, NEAR sits precisely at its 20-day simple moving average, suggesting a critical inflection point for future direction.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52.75 places NEAR in neutral territory, neither oversold nor overbought. This positioning suggests potential for movement in either direction based on market catalysts. The MACD indicator shows a flat histogram at 0.0000, indicating bullish momentum may be building as the signal and main lines converge.
Bollinger Bands analysis reveals NEAR trading within the middle portion of its recent range, with the upper band at $1.46 and lower band at $1.18. The current %B position of 0.48 suggests room for upward movement toward the upper band resistance.
Key moving averages paint a mixed picture for the NEAR Protocol forecast. While the 7-day SMA at $1.38 sits above current price levels, creating immediate resistance, the 50-day SMA at $1.17 provides strong support. However, the 200-day SMA at $1.89 remains well above current levels, indicating longer-term bearish pressure.
NEAR Protocol Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
A break above the immediate resistance at $1.38 could trigger momentum toward the strong resistance level of $1.46, representing the upper Bollinger Band. This move would require confirmation through increased volume and RSI breaking above 60. The ultimate bullish target sits at the 200-day moving average near $1.89, though this would require significant market catalyst.
For bulls to maintain control, NEAR must hold above the 20-day SMA at $1.32 and generate momentum past the 7-day average at $1.38. A decisive break of $1.46 could open the path toward $1.60-$1.70 levels.
Bearish Scenario
Failure to hold current support at $1.30 could lead to a test of strong support at $1.28. A break below this level might trigger selling pressure toward the 50-day SMA at $1.17, representing the lower Bollinger Band area.
The most concerning scenario for NEAR holders would be a breakdown below $1.17, which could accelerate selling toward psychological support near $1.00. The Average True Range of $0.08 suggests daily volatility could produce rapid moves in either direction.
Should You Buy NEAR? Entry Strategy
For traders considering NEAR Protocol positions, current technical levels offer defined entry and exit points. Conservative buyers might wait for a pullback to the $1.28-$1.30 support zone, providing better risk-reward ratios.
Aggressive buyers could enter near current levels around $1.32, with a stop-loss below $1.28 to limit downside risk. The target for this strategy would be the $1.38-$1.42 resistance cluster.
Dollar-cost averaging presents another viable approach given NEAR’s position at key moving average support. Scaling into positions between $1.28-$1.35 could capture any upward momentum while managing downside risk.
Conclusion
The NEAR price prediction for the coming week suggests a crucial test of resistance levels that could determine short-term direction. With technical indicators showing neutral to slightly bullish signals, NEAR Protocol appears positioned for a potential breakout attempt above $1.38.
However, traders should remain cautious given the significant gap between current prices and longer-term moving averages. The NEAR Protocol forecast depends heavily on broader market sentiment and the ability to generate sustained volume above key resistance levels.
Disclaimer: This NEAR price prediction is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry substantial risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
Stellar (XLM) shows neutral momentum at $0.17 with technical indicators suggesting potential move to $0.18-$0.20 range over next 4-6 weeks as RSI remains balanced.
While specific analyst predictions are limited for the current timeframe, recent forecasts from industry sources provide some insight into XLM’s trajectory. MEXC News suggested in January 2026 that “Stellar (XLM) could trade between $0.204 and $0.270 in January 2026,” though current price action has remained more conservative around the $0.17 level.
Felix Pinkston noted earlier this year that XLM showed “neutral RSI at 50.36” with technical analysis suggesting consolidation patterns, which aligns with current market behavior showing similar RSI readings of 52.40.
On-chain metrics from major data platforms continue to show steady network activity for Stellar’s payment infrastructure, though specific analyst commentary remains sparse in the immediate term.
XLM Technical Analysis Breakdown
The current XLM price prediction shows mixed signals with a slight bullish bias. At $0.17, Stellar sits precisely at its 7-day simple moving average, indicating short-term equilibrium between buyers and sellers.
RSI Analysis: The 14-period RSI of 52.40 places XLM in neutral territory, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. This provides room for movement in either direction without immediate reversal pressure.
MACD Signals: The MACD histogram at 0.0000 indicates bearish momentum has stalled, with the MACD line (0.0014) converging with its signal line. This convergence often precedes directional moves.
Bollinger Band Position: With XLM at 66.5% of its Bollinger Band range, the token sits closer to the upper band ($0.18) than the lower band ($0.15), suggesting recent strength despite the modest daily decline.
Key Levels: Strong resistance emerges at $0.17, which currently acts as both support and resistance. The 20-day SMA at $0.16 provides the primary support level, while $0.18 represents the critical breakout threshold.
Stellar Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
In the bullish case for this Stellar forecast, XLM targets the upper Bollinger Band at $0.18, representing a 5.8% upside from current levels. A sustained break above this resistance could propel prices toward $0.20, aligning with historical resistance zones.
Technical confirmation would require:
– RSI breaking above 60 with sustained momentum
– MACD histogram turning positive
– Volume expansion above the current $3.78M daily average
– Clear break and hold above $0.175
Bearish Scenario
The bearish XLM price prediction sees potential retest of the 20-day SMA support at $0.16, representing a 6.25% decline. Failure to hold this level could lead to a test of the lower Bollinger Band at $0.15.
Based on current technical positioning, XLM presents a neutral to slightly bullish setup. Conservative investors might consider:
The daily ATR of $0.01 suggests moderate volatility, allowing for position sizing that accounts for typical daily price swings of approximately 6%.
Conclusion
This Stellar forecast suggests XLM remains in a consolidation phase with slight bullish bias toward the $0.18-$0.20 range over the next 4-6 weeks. The neutral RSI and converging MACD indicate a potential directional move is approaching, with the upper Bollinger Band at $0.18 serving as the key breakout level.
The XLM price prediction carries moderate confidence given the balanced technical indicators, though traders should monitor the $0.16 support level closely for any signs of weakness.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are speculative and involve significant risk. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and risk assessment before making investment decisions.
After a strong start to the week, Bitcoin (BTC) is down nearly 5%, alongside the S&P 500, DOW, Nasdaq, and Gold. Crude oil, on the other hand, has risen 7.30% and is up 53% since the US and Israel–Iran war began on Feb. 28.
The collective market weakness highlights a coordinated shift in capital flows as the war continues in the Middle East, with an uptick in outflows from the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) further highlighting traders’ decision to cut risk.
Capital exodus takes place across all investment markets
The Kobeissi Letter reported a combined $64 billion outflow from the S&P 500 (SPX) ETF and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) over the past three months, the largest on record.
This reverses a $50 billion inflow seen in November and pushes outflows to 5% of the total assets under management.
The spot Bitcoin ETFs mirrored the broader market weakness, recording $253 million in outflows over the past two days.
While the monthly ETF flows remain positive at $1.48 billion, this comes against the backdrop of $6.3 billion in cumulative outflows between November and February, highlighting a fragile recovery in investor demand.
Glassnode data suggests the market is struggling to absorb the selling pressure. The net realized profit-taking briefly accelerated to around $17 million per hour (24-hour average) before losing momentum, after which the BTC price slipped back below $70,000. Glassnode added,
“Broader geopolitical uncertainty appears to be compressing demand depth, limiting the market’s capacity to absorb even moderate realization events.”
Market participants are framing Bitcoin’s move against past geopolitical events, drawing parallels between the current US and Israel–Iran war and the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.
Coincidentally taking place in February four years apart, crypto commentator Carlitosway noted that following Russia’s attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Bitcoin initially sold off before posting a 24% relief bounce in the following four weeks. The momentum faded soon after, as BTC dropped another 64% by November 2022.
A similar sequence is unfolding this month, with BTC rallying nearly 10% at one stage last week since the beginning of the war, but momentum is now slowing down.
Carlitosway linked the weakness to sustained pressure on liquidity, rising energy costs, and continued forced selling during periods of stress, all of which reduce the follow-through demand for Bitcoin.
The pattern points to a more extended stabilization phase, where the recovery may take time as capital rebuilds and the selling pressure clears.
Crypto analyst Finish believed that the recovery path for Bitcoin might take place after a price bottom around $55,000. The analyst added,
“I frankly think that until the Iran war is settled, it’s gonna be hard for $BTC to rise. The environment is risk off, the SPX lost trillions in capitalisation, which leads me to a more neutral stance.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.