Russian authorities have opened a criminal investigation into Telegram co-founder and CEO Pavel Durov, according to state media reports.
Durov is being investigated in Russia as part of a criminal case involving allegations of facilitation of terrorist activities, official state publication Rossiyskaya Gazeta reported on Tuesday, citing the Federal Security Service (FSB).
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reportedly confirmed the investigation, saying the news reports were based on materials from the FSB, which was “carrying out its functions.”
The latest news adds to an ongoing pressure campaign against Telegram in Russia since state media regulator Roskomnadzor tightened messenger restrictions in early February.
Telegram had not responded to the reports by the time of publication. Cointelegraph contacted Telegram for comment but did not immediately receive a response.
Telegram refuses to cooperate with Russian authorities
The reported investigation builds on Telegram’s refusal to comply with Roskomnadzor’s demands to remove what it said was extremist-linked content.
According to the state-linked Komsomolskaya Pravda, Telegram has not removed almost 155,000 channels, chats and bots flagged for illegal or harmful content locally.
The largest categories include 104,093 channels containing false information, 10,598 promoting extremism, 4,168 justifying extremist activity and 3,771 related to drugs.
The investigation could lead to the entire platform being labeled as extremist, former Russian presidential internet adviser German Klimenko reportedly warned. He said that could criminalize payments for Telegram Premium subscriptions and advertising on the platform.
Durov accuses Russia of attacking Telegram to promote state-owned messenger
Durov has previously said the pressure is aimed at steering users toward a new state-backed messenger called MAX.
He added that other countries, including Iran, have attempted similar strategies and failed. “Despite the ban, most Iranians still use Telegram and prefer it to surveilled apps,” Durov wrote on his Telegram channel on Feb. 10.
“Restricting citizens’ freedom is never the right answer. Telegram stands for freedom of speech and privacy, no matter the pressure,” Durov added.
The Russian investigation comes as Durov remains under scrutiny abroad. Durov is also part of an ongoing inquiry in France since his arrest in August 2024.
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
Bitcoin’s (BTC) weakness extended into the weekly open as major stocks sold off in response to US President Donald Trump’s threat to enforce a 15% global tariff after the Supreme Court ruled that his IEEPA tariffs were illegal.
Market sentiment remains fragile, as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 5 out of 100 remains in the “extreme fear” zone. Pseudonymous trader and investor BitcoinHyper said in a post on X that the index has been in the extreme fear zone for nearly three weeks, the longest since 2022.
Traders on the prediction market Polymarket have increased the odds of BTC falling below $55,000 to 72%. The prediction market expectations matches several analysts and financial institutions who expect a fall near or below $55,000.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView
While a bottom may not have formed, expectations are that BTC will eventually recover and move higher. Economist Timothy Peterson said in a post on X that BTC has been positive 50% of the time in the past 24 months. Using a statistical model, Peterson estimated that there is an 88% chance that BTC “will be higher 10 months from now.”
Could buyers defend the support levels in BTC and the major altcoins? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
S&P 500 Index price prediction
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has been trading between 6,775 and 7,002 for several days, indicating a balance between supply and demand.
The flat moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI) near the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears. Buyers will have to achieve a close above the 7,002 resistance to signal the resumption of the uptrend. The index may then ascend to the 7,290 level.
This bullish view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the 6,775 level. The index may then tumble to the solid support at the 6,550 level.
US Dollar Index price prediction
The US Dollar Index (DXY) turned down from the 50-day simple moving average (97.95) on Friday, indicating that the bears are aggressively defending the level.
Sellers are attempting to sink and maintain the index below the 20-day exponential moving average (97.48). If they manage to do that, the index might slide to the 96.21 to 95.55 support zone.
Buyers are likely to have other plans. They will attempt to halt the pullback and push the price above the 50-day SMA. If they can pull it off, the index may jump toward the 99.50 level and subsequently to the 100.54 resistance.
Bitcoin price prediction
BTC fell below the $65,118 support on Monday, but the bulls are attempting to defend the level on a closing basis.
Any relief rally is expected to face selling at the 20-day EMA ($70,185). If the Bitcoin price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, it increases the likelihood of a drop to the vital $60,000 support. Buyers will have to defend the $60,000 level with all their might, as a break below it may sink the BTC/USDT pair to $52,500.
Buyers will have to propel the price above the 20-day EMA to signal demand at lower levels. The pair may then march to the $74,508 level, where the bears are again likely to pose a strong challenge.
Ether price prediction
Ether (ETH) fell below the nearby support at $1,897 on Monday, opening the doors for a retest of the $1,750 level.
The downsloping moving averages and the RSI near the oversold territory heighten the risk of a breakdown. If the $1,750 level is taken out, the ETH/USDT pair may resume the downtrend toward the next support at $1,537.
Contrarily, if the Ether price turns up sharply from $1,750, it suggests demand at lower levels. That may keep the pair inside the $1,750 to $2,111 range for a while longer. A close above $2,111 will be the first sign of strength, clearing the path for a rally to the 50-day SMA ($2,593).
XRP price prediction
XRP (XRP) has been trading between the support line of the descending channel pattern and the 20-day EMA ($1.47) for the past few days.
The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative territory indicate that the bears remain in control. If the support line cracks, the XRP/USDT pair may retest the Feb. 6 low of $1.11. A break and close below the $1.11 level may extend the decline to psychological support at $1.
Buyers have an uphill task ahead of them. They will have to swiftly propel the XRP price above the downtrend line to signal a potential trend change.
BNB price prediction
BNB (BNB) fell below the immediate support at $587 on Monday, but the long tail on the candlestick shows buying at lower levels.
The bulls will attempt to start a recovery, which is expected to face selling at the 20-day EMA ($651). If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will again strive to pull the BNB/USDT pair below the $570 level. If they manage to do that, the BNB price may start the next leg of the downtrend to psychological support at $500.
Contrary to this assumption, if buyers pierce the 20-day EMA, the pair may rally to the breakdown level of $730.
Solana price prediction
The failure of the bulls to push Solana (SOL) to the breakdown level of $95 signals that the bears are active at higher levels.
Sellers will attempt to strengthen their position by pulling the Solana price below the $76 level. If they succeed, the SOL/USDT pair may fall to the Feb. 6 low of $67, which is a critical support to watch out for. If the level gives way, the pair may slump to $60.
Any relief rally is expected to face resistance at the 20-day EMA and then at the $95 level. A close above the $95 level suggests that the sellers are losing their grip. The pair may then surge to $117.
The bulls are expected to fiercely defend the $0.08 level, as the failure to do so may start the next leg of the downward spiral toward $0.06.
The 20-day EMA remains the immediate near-term resistance to watch out for. A close above the 20-day EMA will be the first sign that the selling pressure is reducing. The DOGE/USDT pair may then ascend to the breakdown level of $0.12, where the bears are expected to mount a strong defense.
Bitcoin Cash price prediction
Buyers pushed Bitcoin Cash (BCH) above the 50-day SMA ($571) on Sunday but could not sustain the higher levels.
The bears sold aggressively and have pulled the Bitcoin Cash price below the 20-day EMA ($551). If the price maintains below $538, the BCH/USDT pair might plummet to the strong support at $500. Buyers are expected to aggressively defend the $500 level, as a close below it may sink the pair to $443.
Buyers will have to drive and maintain the price above the 50-day SMA to signal strength. The pair may then climb to $600.
Cardano price prediction
Despite repeated attempts, buyers failed to push and maintain Cardano (ADA) above the 20-day EMA ($0.28) in the past few days.
That increases the likelihood of a drop to the support line of the descending channel pattern. If the price rebounds off the support line and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it suggests that the ADA/USDT pair may remain inside the channel for some more time.
Instead, if the Cardano price continues lower and breaks below the support line, it indicates the resumption of the downtrend. The pair may then plunge toward $0.15. A short-term trend change will be signaled after buyers clear the overhead hurdle at the downtrend line.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
New research from $380B-valued Anthropic shows users are 5.2% less likely to verify AI outputs when creating artifacts, raising questions about automation risks.
Anthropic’s latest research reveals a troubling pattern: the more polished AI outputs look, the less users bother to verify them. The finding comes from the company’s new AI Fluency Index, which analyzed 9,830 Claude.ai conversations during January 2026.
When Claude produces artifacts—code, documents, interactive tools—users are 5.2 percentage points less likely to identify missing context and 3.1 percentage points less likely to question the AI’s reasoning. Essentially, a slick-looking output lulls users into complacency.
The Iteration Gap
The $380 billion company’s research team, led by Kristen Swanson, tracked 11 observable behaviors across thousands of conversations to measure what they call “AI fluency.” The methodology draws from a framework developed with Professors Rick Dakan and Joseph Feller.
The strongest signal? Users who iterate—treating AI responses as starting points rather than final answers—demonstrate 2.67 additional fluency behaviors compared to those who accept first responses. That’s roughly double the engagement. These iterative users are 5.6 times more likely to question Claude’s reasoning and 4 times more likely to spot missing context.
But only 85.7% of conversations showed this iterative behavior. The remaining 14.3% essentially accepted whatever Claude produced on the first try.
The Artifact Paradox
Here’s where it gets interesting for anyone building with AI tools. In the 12.3% of conversations involving artifact creation, users actually became more directive upfront—clarifying goals (+14.7pp), specifying formats (+14.5pp), providing examples (+13.4pp). They put in the work at the start.
Then they dropped their guard. Fact-checking declined by 3.7 percentage points in these same conversations. The researchers note this aligns with patterns from their recent coding skills study, suggesting the phenomenon isn’t limited to casual users.
“As AI models become increasingly capable of producing polished-looking outputs, the ability to critically evaluate those outputs will become more valuable rather than less,” the report states.
Why This Matters Now
Anthropic isn’t some scrappy startup raising concerns. Fresh off a $30 billion Series G round in February 2026—the second-largest venture funding deal ever—the company now commands a $380 billion valuation with $14 billion in annual run-rate revenue. When they publish research suggesting their own product creates verification blind spots, it carries weight.
The company acknowledges limitations: the sample skews toward early adopters, behaviors like mental fact-checking go unobserved, and the findings are correlational rather than causal. They also can’t see when users test code or verify outputs outside the chat interface.
Still, the practical takeaway is clear. Only 30% of users explicitly tell Claude how they want it to interact with them—instructions like “push back if my assumptions are wrong” or “tell me what you’re uncertain about.” The research suggests this simple habit could reshape entire conversations.
Anthropic plans cohort analyses comparing new and experienced users, plus qualitative research on behaviors invisible in chat logs. For now, their advice to users is blunt: when AI output looks finished, that’s precisely when you should start asking questions.
While specific analyst predictions for dogwifhat are currently limited, recent market data provides some insight. According to The Solana Post, WIF posted “the largest 24-hour gain across the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap” on January 6, 2026, demonstrating the token’s potential for explosive moves during favorable market conditions.
On-chain metrics from major data platforms suggest that meme coins on Solana, including WIF, continue to maintain strong community engagement despite recent price corrections. Trading volume data from Binance shows consistent daily volume above $6.9 million, indicating sustained institutional and retail interest in the token.
WIF Technical Analysis Breakdown
The current WIF price prediction is heavily influenced by oversold technical conditions. With the token trading at $0.20, several key indicators point toward a potential near-term recovery:
RSI Analysis: At 35.47, WIF’s RSI sits in neutral territory but approaching oversold levels, suggesting selling pressure may be diminishing. This creates a foundation for potential price recovery as momentum shifts.
MACD Signals: The MACD histogram at -0.0000 indicates bearish momentum is weakening, with the MACD line and signal line converging near zero. This convergence often precedes trend reversals in oversold assets.
Bollinger Bands Position: WIF’s position at 0.11 within the Bollinger Bands places it very close to the lower band at $0.20, which historically serves as strong support. The middle band at $0.22 represents immediate resistance, while the upper band at $0.25 marks the primary target for any recovery rally.
Moving Average Structure: All major moving averages remain above current price levels, with the SMA 7 and SMA 20 both at $0.22, creating a clear resistance cluster that must be broken for sustained upward movement.
dogwifhat Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
In the bullish case for this dogwifhat forecast, WIF could target $0.25 within 4-6 weeks. This represents the upper Bollinger Band and would require breaking through the $0.22 moving average resistance cluster. Key confirmation signals include RSI moving above 50, MACD turning positive, and daily volume exceeding $10 million.
A successful break above $0.25 could open the path toward the SMA 50 at $0.30, representing a 50% gain from current levels. This scenario assumes broader crypto market stability and continued Solana ecosystem growth.
Bearish Scenario
The bearish scenario for WIF price prediction involves a break below the critical support at $0.19. Such a move would likely trigger stops and could send the token toward $0.15-$0.17, representing a 25% decline from current levels.
Risk factors include broader crypto market correction, reduced meme coin speculation, or technical issues within the Solana network. The MACD remaining in negative territory and failure to reclaim $0.22 would confirm bearish momentum.
Should You Buy WIF? Entry Strategy
Based on current technical analysis, potential entry points for WIF include:
Conservative Entry: Wait for a confirmed break above $0.22 with volume confirmation before entering, targeting $0.25 with a stop-loss at $0.19.
Aggressive Entry: Current levels around $0.20 offer risk-reward favoring buyers, given the Bollinger Band support. Set stop-loss at $0.18 and initial target at $0.22.
Risk Management: Given WIF’s high volatility (ATR of $0.02), position sizing should be conservative. Never risk more than 2-3% of portfolio on speculative meme coin positions.
Conclusion
This WIF price prediction suggests a 25% upside potential to $0.25 over the next 4-6 weeks, supported by oversold technical conditions and strong Bollinger Band support. The dogwifhat forecast carries moderate confidence given the neutral RSI and weakening bearish MACD signals.
However, investors should remember that meme coin predictions carry inherently high risk due to their speculative nature and social media-driven volatility. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and all cryptocurrency investments should be considered high-risk ventures.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk of loss.
Measuring real Bitcoin payments is difficult because many transactions go through intermediaries, crypto cards or instant conversions.
Surveys show that a sizable minority of crypto holders have used crypto to buy goods or services at least once but rarely distinguish Bitcoin from other assets.
El Salvador’s experience suggests that making Bitcoin legal tender does not automatically lead to everyday retail use, especially when existing payment systems remain convenient.
Payment processor data indicates that crypto payments are more common in online and high-value categories like travel, electronics and digital services.
When Satoshi Nakamoto conceptualized Bitcoin, they thought of it as digital money. However, a question stands today: How many people really use Bitcoin to buy things?
The answer is not simple. Payment data is fragmented, many transactions go through intermediaries, and a rising portion of crypto payments now use stablecoins instead of Bitcoin (BTC). Still, exploring surveys, payment processors, app ecosystems and country-level experiments will help you develop a clearer view.
This picture reveals that, while Bitcoin hasn’t yet attained widespread everyday adoption, it is used in situations where it solves practical problems better than traditional payment methods.
This article explores what makes measuring Bitcoin payments so complex, what surveys indicate about spending behavior and what the El Salvador experiment reveals about Bitcoin payments. It also discusses what payment processors demonstrate about usage and when Bitcoin payments make sense in real terms.
Why measuring Bitcoin payments is harder than it seems
There are no global statistics disclosing a record of Bitcoin used at checkout. Instead, when it comes to measuring Bitcoin payments, analysts depend on indirect indicators:
Consumer surveys that ask whether people have ever paid with crypto
Payment processor data showing merchant transaction volumes
State-level efforts that aim to make Bitcoin legal tender
App-based systems that support Lightning payments.
Lightning payments are a way to send Bitcoin instantly for a negligible fee. It works like a high-speed express lane on top of the main Bitcoin network, making it suitable for small everyday purchases.
Various factors explain why measuring Bitcoin payments is so complicated:
Merchants usually do not hold the Bitcoin they receive. Payment processors often convert BTC to local currency right away so merchants can avoid associated price risks. From the buyer’s viewpoint, they paid with Bitcoin, but on the merchant’s end, it resembles a regular bank payment.
Crypto cards make the distinction between Bitcoin payments and regular payments less clear. When someone uses a Visa card backed by crypto, the merchant receives fiat through normal channels. This is spending funded by crypto but not a true Bitcoin payment.
Stablecoins tend to be used more predominantly in crypto payment flows. Tokens linked to fiat currencies, particularly dollars, make up a large share of transaction volume, whether for business payments or cross-border transfers.
For this reason, it is useful to distinguish three separate cases:
Paying directly with Bitcoin onchain or through the Lightning Network
Paying with Bitcoin that is converted to fiat in the background
Paying with other crypto assets, such as stablecoins.
Did you know? In 2010, 10,000 BTC was used to buy two pizzas, marking the first known commercial Bitcoin transaction and proving that the network could be used for real-world trade, not just peer-to-peer transfers.
What surveys suggest about spending habits
Among those who own crypto, spending is not uncommon, but it is not regular either.
A 2025 National Cryptocurrency Association survey found that 39% of crypto holders reported using cryptocurrency to shop for goods and services.
According to GM Global Cryptocurrency Insights, conducted in 2024, 11% of respondents reported actively using crypto for purchases, while 19% expressed interest in using crypto for everyday transactions.
These surveys indicate that a sizable minority of crypto holders have used crypto to make purchases at least once. Yet these surveys tend not to separate Bitcoin from other assets, and they do not track how often it happens.
This difference is important. A person who used crypto once to buy a flight or an online service counts the same as someone who uses it often even though their actions differ greatly in terms of payment adoption.
El Salvador: A real-world test for Bitcoin payments
El Salvador is the only country to have made Bitcoin legal tender nationwide, creating a natural testing ground for everyday payment use.
Despite early incentive programs following the official adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, retail adoption in the country did not grow significantly. Only a fraction of citizens used it for regular transactions, and most businesses that accepted BTC reported very low volumes.
Several reasons explain this:
Volatility made pricing difficult for buyers and sellers.
Many users quickly converted government incentives to cash.
Merchants had no compelling reason to encourage Bitcoin payments.
Usability problems persisted for non-technical users.
El Salvador’s experience demonstrates that legal status by itself does not build consumer payment habits, especially when existing payment options function well.
The country initially made accepting Bitcoin payments mandatory for private businesses. However, in early 2025, businesses were allowed to decide whether to accept Bitcoin payments as part of an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Bitcoin payments continue to be legal for obligations such as taxes and state bills.
Did you know? In certain countries, Bitcoin kiosks allow users to pay utility bills by converting BTC into local payment networks, turning crypto into an indirect but practical payment bridge.
What payment processors show about actual usage
Crypto payment processors act as a window into merchant activity. Some consistent patterns are visible:
Transaction volumes are higher in online commerce than in physical retail.
Average purchase amounts are often larger than typical retail purchases.
Categories such as travel, luxury goods, digital services and electronics appear more frequently.
These patterns align with basic economic logic. Crypto payments are more attractive for large cross-border payments.
Another emerging trend is that stablecoins account for a major part of crypto payments. Merchants find receiving dollar-pegged tokens simpler to record and convert into their operating currency than holding Bitcoin.
While crypto payments are rising in merchant systems, Bitcoin’s share of this activity may not be the largest, whether in business-to-business (B2B) or peer-to-peer (P2P) transactions.
Lightning and app-based payment systems
If Bitcoin is to work as everyday money, the Lightning Network is essential. Lightning enables near-instant, low-cost payments, making small transactions feasible.
But Lightning also brings new measurement difficulties. Many transactions remain off the main blockchain, so total volumes are hard to track.
What you can see instead is platform activity.
You can use apps that facilitate Lightning, allowing users to pay merchants without directly holding Bitcoin. In some setups:
The user pays in local currency.
The app converts it to Bitcoin behind the scenes.
The merchant receives Bitcoin via Lightning.
To the merchant, this counts as a Bitcoin payment. To the user, it may simply feel like a normal QR code scan.
This approach blurs the usual meaning of paying with Bitcoin, but it is significant because it lowers friction.
Did you know? Nonprofits have started using Bitcoin donations to receive funds globally within minutes, especially when traditional wire transfers or card payments face regional shutdowns.
Where Bitcoin payments actually make sense today
Data sets and case studies suggest that Bitcoin payments appear mainly in specific economic niches rather than in everyday consumer spending:
Cross-border small business payments: Exporters, online merchants and freelancers sometimes choose Bitcoin to bypass international bank delays, currency controls or high intermediary fees. Fast settlement and finality matter more than volatility since funds are converted quickly.
Travel and high-value online purchases: Airline tickets, hotel bookings and electronics often appear in crypto payment reports. These are cases where card fees add up and international buyers are common.
Donations and censorship-resistant funding: Nonprofits, activists and humanitarian groups use Bitcoin when traditional payment systems are unreliable or politically restricted.
Remittances in certain corridors: Stablecoins lead most crypto remittance flows, but Bitcoin still plays a role where local on-ramps exist and recipients can convert easily.
Gift card and voucher systems: Many people use Bitcoin by buying gift cards or prepaid vouchers indirectly. This is not direct merchant acceptance, but it is a real way consumers spend.
Local circular economies: Small communities around Bitcoin meetups, tourism areas or coworking spaces can demonstrate local usage. These cases are genuine but remain small in scale.
So, how many people actually pay with Bitcoin?
There is no exact global number for Bitcoin payments, and any precise user count should be viewed with caution.
The evidence supports the following points:
Among crypto holders, a substantial minority has used crypto for payments, though not always regularly.
Everyday Bitcoin payment use has remained low, even in countries that encouraged it.
Merchant acceptance exists, but payment volumes are concentrated in certain sectors and regions rather than broad retail.
A rising portion of crypto payments now uses stablecoins instead of Bitcoin, particularly for business transactions.
Bitcoin functions today more as specialized payment infrastructure than as universal consumer money.
Practical milestones for Bitcoin adoption
Future adoption of Bitcoin as a payment method will likely depend less on theory and more on the development of infrastructure layers.
Key indicators to watch include:
Apps that hide crypto wallets and private keys from users
Merchant tools that add Lightning without added complexity
Clear regulations on crypto payment settlement and accounting
Competition between Bitcoin systems and stablecoin networks.
If paying with Bitcoin becomes as easy as scanning a QR code in a familiar app, usage may increase, depending on regulatory and market conditions.
Base will transition to a unified, internally maintained stack, expected to be its biggest architectural shift since launch.
After debuting in 2023 as a rollup built on Optimism’s OP Stack, Coinbase’s Ethereum layer 2 is now consolidating its software into an in-house distribution, which can unlock faster upgrades and greater autonomy over its technical roadmap.
It has been three years since Base launched its testnet. The network has experienced SocialFi explosions and ridden its own memecoin wave. It even went through a phase that both fascinated and unnerved Crypto Twitter as AI agents began transacting on its chain.
Here’s how it got here.
Base introduced itself to the world three years ago, intending to bring 1 billion users to crypto. Source: Base
Base’s mainnet opened to builders in July 2023, and users followed in August. The period after Coinbase cut the ribbon was promoted as “Onchain Summer.” In the first week, Base attracted 700,000 new users, who brought with them about $242 million in inflows.
Friend.tech was the headline act of Coinbase’s summer festival. It was a social app that allowed users to buy and sell access to their connections. The loudest voices on Crypto Twitter tested the industry’s newest toy, which also attracted the rich and famous outside the community. In less than two weeks after launching, it generated over $1 million in daily fees, surpassing Bitcoin at the time.
It didn’t last long.
Friend.tech’s activity collapsed after a few days of glory. Source: Beanie
The memecoin frenzy became one of the defining crypto stories in recent years, drawing in political figures and public personalities. Eventually, it prompted the US Securities and Exchange Commission to state that such tokens fall outside the scope of securities laws.
Solana is the go-to blockchain for memecoins. Its data shows the memecoin boom gaining momentum in late 2023, when its daily active addresses began climbing toward Ethereum’s levels. In March 2024, Solana decisively surpassed Ethereum on that metric when Base users started showing some post-Friend.tech signs of life.
Base overtook Ethereum’s active addresses through its own memecoin boom. Source: Token Terminal
From March 19 to 25, Cointelegraph Magazine found more than 380,000 ERC-20 tokens deployed on Base. That activity brought fresh liquidity into Base’s DeFi ecosystem, and by June 2024, the layer 2 had flipped Ethereum in active addresses. It held on to that lead until December 2025.
Uniswap on Base challenged Solana DEX volumes in March of 2024. Source: DefiLlama
AI agents begin transacting on Base
In the latter half of 2024, AI agents claimed the driver’s seat in crypto. As with memecoins, early experiments took off on Solana, such as Goatseus Maximus, ai16z and Truth Terminal.
Developers launched agent-linked tokens, autonomous trading bots and social accounts that presented themselves as autonomous onchain actors.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong argued that crypto provides a natural financial rail for AI systems, as agents lack the legal identity required to open traditional bank accounts.
On Base, focus shifted to AI agents capable of holding balances, tipping users and interacting directly with smart contracts. In October 2024, Coinbase introduced “Based Agents,” a toolkit that allowed users to build AI agents equipped with crypto wallets.
Armstrong offers a crypto wallet to an AI agent, while Solana’s Anatoly Yakovenko warns of potentially apocalyptic consequences. Source: Truth Terminal/Armstrong/Yakovenko
Base’s 2023 debut was followed by the breakout of Friend.tech. In 2025, SocialFi returned to Base in a different form, sparked by deeper integration with Coinbase’s consumer ecosystem.
That push was tied to Coinbase’s “super app” ambitions. Super apps are platforms that support a variety of 21st-century necessities, such as messaging, digital banking, ride sharing or even food delivery.
Such platforms already exist in Asia. WeChat in China is used in the everyday lives of more than 1 billion users, combining messaging, payments and commerce. South Korea’s KakaoTalk and Japan’s Line serve similar functions in their respective markets. Social media giants like X and Meta have said they are exploring similar models.
In July 2025, Coinbase rebranded its wallet as the Base App, making its Ethereum layer 2 the default execution layer within its wallet ecosystem.
At the center of this phase was Farcaster, a decentralized social network where accounts are linked to crypto addresses. Posts, tips and token launches connected directly to onchain activity.
Zora pushed Base token launches above Solana after the Coinbase app rebranded. Source: Dune Analytics
The second coming of SocialFi on Base lasted longer than Friend.tech, but interest faded after the initial hype period. On Feb. 9, 2026, Coinbase announced it would sunset its Creator Rewards program and Farcaster-powered social feeds. The change does not directly affect Zora users, though activity there has also cooled from its peak.
Base becomes Ethereum’s most active layer 2
Throughout the first three years, Base showcased the distribution power of the largest US exchange, similar to how BNB Chain’s user activity is influenced by Binance.
Aside from their technical differences, Binance has attempted to distance itself from the blockchain it founded by attempting to give it its own brand, while Coinbase has kept Base close to its orbit.
Coinbase and its blockchain have ridden the tides of emerging trends such as memecoins and AI agents while becoming the center of creator economies and SocialFi applications.
Those trends came and went, but they did push Base to the top of the Ethereum layer-2 ladder. It now leads in users, transactions, fees and total value locked, according to data from Nansen and DefiLlama.
Base’s transaction volume compared to Arbitrum and Optimism. Source: Nansen
Trends onboarded users and distribution brought scale. Now, Base is consolidating its foundation. Whether the unified stack cements its lead or merely bookends its first growth era will define its next three years, as Ethereum’s focus shifts from L2s back to scaling the main chain.
Cointelegraph Features and Cointelegraph Magazine publish long-form journalism, analysis and narrative reporting produced by Cointelegraph’s in-house editorial team and selected external contributors with subject-matter expertise. All articles are edited and reviewed by Cointelegraph editors in line with our editorial standards. Contributions from external writers are commissioned for their experience, research or perspective and do not reflect the views of Cointelegraph as a company unless explicitly stated. Content published in Features and Magazine does not constitute financial, legal or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals where appropriate. Cointelegraph maintains full editorial independence. The selection, commissioning and publication of Features and Magazine content are not influenced by advertisers, partners or commercial relationships.
Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), is on track to test and potentially break the $1,500 support level in the coming days.
Key takeaways:
Ethereum has entered the breakdown phase of its prevailing bearish continuation pattern.
ETH price may decline below $1,500 by early March amid founder-led selling.
ETH bear pennant breakdown targets $1,475
On Monday, ETH’s price dropped by more than 5.60% to about $1,850 amid a broader de-risking sentiment led by nervousness surrounding tariffs.
In doing so, the biggest altcoin broke below the lower trendline of its prevailing bear pennant pattern, with rising volumes indicating traders’ conviction behind the breakdown move.
Edit the caption here or remove the text
A bear pennant breakdown typically resolves when the price falls by as much as the previous downtrend’s height.
Applying the same principle to ETH’s charts would bring its downside target to $1,475, close to the psychological support level of $1,500, by the end of February or early March.
The bulls must therefore reclaim the pennant’s lower trendline as support, followed by a continued rally above the 20-day exponential moving average (20-day EMA, the green line) at $2,085, which may invalidate the bearish outlook.
Vitalik Buterin will likely sell more ETH soon
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin’s planned ETH sales have not helped the bulls regain their footing in February.
On Jan. 30, Buterin said he would withdraw and sell 16,384 ETH via his Kanro entity to fund ecosystem work, open-source software and other long-term initiatives during an Ethereum Foundation “mild austerity” phase.
Since early February, onchain tracker Arkham Intelligence has flagged about 9,000 ETH sold in batches, with the pace picking up again over the past 48 hours after a 3,500 ETH withdrawal from Aave.
Vitalik Buterin “is selling ETH faster again,” said onchain monitoring resource, Lookonchain, on Monday.
Ethereum’s price has dropped 18.55% so far in February, aligning with Buterin’s ETH distribution. The overhang could grow if he liquidates the remaining ~7,350 ETH.
History shows how founder-linked supply, including Ethereum Foundation treasury transfers, can amplify bearish sentiment among traders.
For instance, the May 2021 35,000 ETH transfers (about $125 million at that time) preceded a 50% ETH price drop within weeks.
Later, the foundation transferred another 20,000 ETH ($95 million) to Kraken on Nov. 11, 2021, a move that, in hindsight, coincided with Ether’s price peaking near $4,700 before the next leg lower.
Such conditions further increase ETH’s odds of hitting its pennant target below $1,500 in the coming days.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Unlike phishing attacks that defraud victims quickly, pig-butchering scams build long-term emotional trust before introducing fraudulent crypto investment opportunities.
From casual outreach and relationship building to fake profits, escalating deposits and blocked withdrawals, each step is carefully designed to deepen commitment.
Blockchain security firm CertiK reported $370.3 million in scam-related losses in January 2026 alone, with social engineering tactics accounting for the majority.
Authorities are targeting scam networks and laundering operations, yet cross-border jurisdictional issues and encrypted communications complicate crackdowns.
Pig-butchering frauds involve a long-drawn, methodical approach in which scammers instill confidence in their targets and later exploit it for monetary gain. Over the last few years, such schemes have proliferated within the crypto sector, making traders fearful of losing their funds. These frauds have reshaped how regulators and law enforcement view crypto-enabled crime.
This article explores how pig-butchering crypto scams manipulate victims through long-term relationship building and the exploitation of emotional trust using fabricated investment platforms. It explains the psychological tactics scammers use, how funds are extracted over time and why these schemes have become one of the fastest-growing global crypto fraud models.
Defining a pig-butchering scam
Pig-butchering derives from the Chinese expression “Sha Zhu Pan,” which refers to nurturing a target like livestock prior to slaughter. Applied to fraud, it entails scammers forging deep personal connections over extended periods. They then coax victims into sending funds to a deceptive digital currency venture.
While typical phishing tactics rely on urgency and alarm, pig-butchering scams hinge on persuasion and persistence. Scammers assume roles such as a confidant, adviser or financial consultant, methodically building trust before executing the scheme.
Did you know? Some victims interact with scammers for several months before investing, making pig-butchering one of the longest-running and most emotionally manipulative forms of online financial fraud.
Breaking down the scam process
Understanding each stage of a pig-butchering scam reveals how emotional manipulation and financial deception are woven together to trap victims:
First outreach: Perpetrators typically initiate contact with victims through dating platforms, professional networks like LinkedIn, social media such as Instagram, messaging services like Telegram or unsolicited SMS messages. The introductory message is designed to lower suspicion and often appears accidental or casual.
Fostering connection: Over subsequent days or weeks, the scammer nurtures a bond with the victim by sharing “manufactured” anecdotes, routine details and “professional” achievements. Many scammers impersonate successful digital asset traders and finance experts.
Unveiling the opportunity: Eventually, the scammers shift the conversation to investing. They claim to know a high-return crypto trading strategy or to have access to insider knowledge or a private investment platform. They show victims screenshots of fake profits and guide them to professional-looking fraudulent websites.
Early modest returns: Scammers encourage individuals to start with minimal investments. The system may display swift “earnings” to build trust. Occasionally, scammers allow small withdrawals to make the platform appear legitimate.
Intensification: As the victim’s trust in the scammers increases, they are encouraged to invest larger amounts. Scammers may advise victims to take bank loans, withdraw savings or even borrow from friends.
Blocked withdrawals and exit: When victims attempt to retrieve the amount “deposited,” the system blocks access and demands additional “charges.” Thereafter, the scammers vanish.
Did you know? Law enforcement agencies in the US and Europe have begun freezing crypto wallets linked to pig-butchering rings, sometimes recovering partial funds through coordinated blockchain tracing efforts.
Using trust as a psychological weapon
The core feature that sets pig-butchering scams apart is their reliance on psychological and emotional exploitation. Fraudsters target vulnerabilities such as:
Feelings of isolation or a strong need for connection and affection
Economic difficulties combined with the hope of gaining quick wealth
Authority bias, which refers to the tendency to rely on perceived experts
Trust in apparent evidence of success.
Perpetrators intentionally spend time in the buildup phase rather than pushing for quick action. An extended period of interaction deepens the victim’s sense of attachment and loyalty. When the moment arrives to send money, many victims genuinely feel they are partnering with a dependable ally or close companion.
The emotional layer complicates the path to recovery, both financially and psychologically.
Did you know? Pig-butchering exploits proceed through complex laundering chains involving multiple wallets, cross-chain bridges and over-the-counter (OTC) brokers before funds are cashed out.
Assessing the magnitude of the problem
Fraud involving cryptocurrency has seen a sharp rise in recent times. According to blockchain security company CertiK, scammers stole $370.3 million in January 2026 alone, the largest single-month total in nearly a year. Of that amount, phishing and social engineering tactics accounted for about $311 million, a category that frequently includes pig-butchering operations.
This uptick followed prominent crypto security breaches in 2025, particularly the Bybit exchange hack in February, which contributed to $1.5 billion in overall losses during that period.
Significant court outcomes further demonstrate the scale of these crimes. In early 2026, Daren Li, a dual citizen of China and St. Kitts and Nevis, received a 20-year federal prison sentence in the US for leading an extensive cryptocurrency fraud network. According to prosecutors, his actions defrauded victims of more than $73 million, with accomplices setting up fake websites and using front companies.
Dimensions of crypto-related frauds
Trading in digital currencies does not always result in fraud. However, crypto trading has its own unique dynamics.
Swiftness and finality: Crypto transactions become permanent once confirmed. Unlike card-based payments, no central authority can reverse the transfer of funds.
Global reach: Fraudsters often operate in networks that span national borders. Crypto enables seamless cross-border transfers independent of conventional finance.
Convincing interfaces: Scam websites have grown more sophisticated. Like legitimate platforms, they may feature dynamic pricing, user dashboards and support functions.
Obfuscation using stablecoins and decentralized finance: To obscure the trail of funds involved in these scams, assets are often swapped into stablecoins or routed through decentralized systems.
While blockchain transparency assists investigators, stolen assets may pass through a chain of addresses before an investigation begins.
Countermeasures to curb pig-butchering scams
Security agencies have taken steps to deter pig-butchering scams, which can be devastating for victims. Entities such as the US Secret Service and Homeland Security are strengthening joint efforts through anti-crime units focused on financial offenses.
Recent cases demonstrate that investigative agencies are pursuing not only individual scammers but also laundering networks and shell companies that facilitate the movement of funds. However, enforcement faces several challenges:
Jurisdictional complexity
Use of encrypted communications
Scam compounds operating in loosely regulated regions
Reports of forced labor in some Southeast Asian scam centers.
The global nature of these operations requires a coordinated international response.
Red flags to watch for
Awareness remains the first line of defense against fraudulent activities. Common warning signs include:
Unsolicited investment advice from online acquaintances
Pressure to move conversations off mainstream apps
Assurances of consistent high returns with low risk
Requests to deposit crypto on unfamiliar platforms
Demands for “tax” or “unlock” fees before withdrawals.
Before investing in any platform, verify through independent sources that it is credible.
Cointelegraph maintains full editorial independence. The selection, commissioning and publication of Features and Magazine content are not influenced by advertisers, partners or commercial relationships.
Bitcoin past performance gave 88% odds of higher prices by early 2027, the latest in a series of new bullish BTC price predictions.
Bitcoin (BTC) at $122,000 in ten months could be an “average return” if history repeats itself.
Key points:
An “informal” Bitcoin price metric gives 88% odds of BTC/USD trading higher by early 2027.
$122,000 per coin would mark an “average return” based on prior performance.
Bullish BTC price predictions remain in place despite the current low sentiment.
BTC price ended half of past 24 months higher
New analysis from network economist Timothy Peterson gives almost 90% odds of a BTC price being higher by early 2027.
Bitcoin’s underperformance since Q4 2025 has not removed every bullish BTC price prediction that leverages historical data.
For Peterson, monthly price action over the past two years points to a recovery through the rest of the year.
“50% of the past 24 months have been positive. This implies a 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now,” he reported on X.
“The average return is exp(60%)-1 = 82% => $122,000. Data goes back to 2011.”
Trailing positive BTC price months with put option payoff data. Source: Timothy Peterson/X
In a previous post, Peterson acknowledged that trailing price performance is more useful for identifying trend “inflection points” than price targets.
“This metric measures frequency, not magnitude. So Bitcoin could trend sideways for months and this metric could still go down. But it is still very useful for identifying inflection points,” he wrote, calling the tool “informal.”
Among them is an analysis from Bernstein, which this month offered a $150,000 target, calling Bitcoin’s comedown its “weakest bear case” in history.
US banking giant Wells Fargo additionally sees $150 billion in capital inflows into Bitcoin and stocks by the end of March.
“Speculation picks up with bigger savings…we expect YOLO to return,” analyst Ohsung Kwon wrote in a note last week.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
US President Donald Trump is now using alternative legal routes to levy tariffs, but critics say his authority to impose them is still limited.
United States President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that he is raising the 10% global tariff rate announced on Friday to 15%, which will take effect immediately.
Trump reiterated his criticism of the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down his authority to levy tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). In a Saturday Truth Social post, he said:
“As President of the United States of America, I will be, effective immediately, raising the 10% worldwide tariff on countries, many of which have been ‘ripping’ the US off for decades, without retribution, until I came along, to the fully allowed, and legally tested, 15% level.”
On Friday, Trump announced a 10% global tariff rate to be added on top of already existing tariffs that remained valid after the court ruling, under alternative legal statutes outlined in the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and the Trade Act of 1974.
However, pro-crypto attorney Adam Cochran said the scope of these laws also limits Trump’s authority to levy broad tariffs indefinitely.
“The law he is using only allows this to be on countries we have a deficit with, for a set period of 150 days, and at a capped percentage,” he said.
Each new tariff announcement from Trump caused turmoil in the crypto and stock markets, with severe downturns that negatively impacted asset prices and fueled macroeconomic uncertainty among investors.
Crypto markets held firm in the wake of the latest tariff announcements
The crypto market, which usually experiences heavy sell-offs in response to tariff announcements, held firm in the wake of the latest tariff headlines.
Bitcoin’s price barely reacted to the Trump tariff announcements on Friday and Saturday. Source: TradingView
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) held steady at the $68,000 level, and Ether (ETH) also remained firm, showing little to no change since Friday when the new tariffs were announced.
The Total3 indicator, which tracks the entire market capitalization of the crypto sector, excluding BTC and ETH, fell by less than 1% on Saturday and remains at about $713 billion at the time of this writing.
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
