Bitcoin (BTC) may establish a local bottom after dropping by over 35% from its record high of around $126,200 established two months ago, based on a mix of technical and on-chain indicators.
Key takeaways:
Momentum, miner capitulation, and liquidity indicators point to fading selling pressure.
Macro liquidity suggests a BTC recovery could begin within the next 4–6 weeks.
Bitcoin sellers nearing exhaustion
As of December, Bitcoin’s weekly Stochastic RSI had turned up from oversold levels, a setup that has historically appeared near key inflexion points, before the price rebounded, as highlighted by trader Jesse in the chart below.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView/Jelle
Similar bullish crosses emerged in early 2019 (after BTC bottomed near $3,200), March 2020 (the COVID crash low near $3,800), and late 2022 (around the $15,500 cycle low). In each case, momentum shifted first, while price lagged.
Adding to the signal, Bitcoin’s three-day chart is printing a bullish divergence where price made a lower low, but momentum did not.
This pattern also appeared ahead of the mid-2021 correction low and the FTX-driven bottom in 2022, both of which preceded multi-month recoveries.
These signals suggest selling pressure in the Bitcoin market may be exhausted in the near future, a condition more typical of market bottoms than temporary relief rallies.
Bitcoin miner capitulation shows BTC bottom is in
Bitcoin’s hashrate fell 4% in the month to Dec. 15, a development VanEck analysts Matt Sigel and Patrick Bush viewed as “a bullish contrarian signal” linked to miner capitulation.
Periods of sustained hash rate compression have historically preceded stronger Bitcoin returns, they said, explaining that since 2014, BTC posted positive 90-day returns 65% of the time following 30-day hashrate declines.
Bitcoin mean hash rate vs. price. Source: Glassnode
The signal strengthened over longer horizons, with positive 180-day returns 77% of the time and an average gain of 72%.
Rising prices could also improve miner profitability and bring sidelined capacity back online.
Bitcoin may rally in 4-6 weeks, one macro indicator shows
Bitcoin may be nearing a bottom as liquidity conditions begin to improve, a factor that has historically led to major BTC reversals.
Analyst Miad Kasravi’s backtest of 105 indicators showed the National Financial Conditions Index’s (NFCI) top often leads a Bitcoin rally by four to six weeks.
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index. Source: FRED
This signal appeared in late 2022 and mid-2024, both ahead of sharp rallies. Historically, each 0.10-point decline has aligned with roughly 15%–20% upside in Bitcoin, with deeper NFCI readings marking prolonged BTC uptrend phases.
NFCI Index vs. Bitcoin price. Source: X
As of December, NFCI sat at -0.52 and was trending lower.
NFCI Index vs. Bitcoin price. Source: X
A potential catalyst is the Federal Reserve’s plan to rotate mortgage-backed securities into Treasury bills, a move Kasravi compared to the 2019 “not-QE” liquidity injection that preceded a 40% Bitcoin rally.
Despite these signals, many market watchers anticipate Bitcoin’s price to decline further, with their price targets ranging from $70,000 to $25,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Ondo plans an early 2026 rollout of tokenized US stocks and ETFs on Solana.
The tokens are custody-backed. Underlying securities sit with US-registered broker-dealers, while onchain holders receive economic exposure rather than shareholder rights.
Minting and redemption are designed to keep tokens anchored to real assets on a 24/5 basis, while transfers and trading can operate 24/7.
Compliance is intended to travel with the asset, using Solana Token Extensions such as Transfer Hooks to enforce eligibility and transfer restrictions.
Ondo’s core pitch is that investors should be able to hold traditional financial exposure, such as Treasurys, money market funds and now US equities, inside the same wallet they use for stablecoins and move those assets onchain.
Most recently, the company plans to bring tokenized US stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to Solana. Ondo says it aims to launch these tokens in early 2026, extending a product line it already operates on other blockchains.
The idea is straightforward: You hold a “stock token” in your wallet, then trade or transfer that exposure on Solana, with settlement that can occur much faster than the traditional market stack and access that continues even when US exchanges are closed.
Did you know? Ondo Finance launched its USDY (“US Dollar Yield”) token in August 2023, describing it as a tokenized note backed by US Treasurys and bank deposits, paying 5% APY at launch.
What exactly is Ondo putting on Solana?
Ondo’s Global Markets product already offers onchain exposure to more than 100 US stocks and ETFs, with “hundreds more” on the roadmap. The team has flagged Solana as one of the next networks in line.
The Solana rollout focuses on taking that existing catalog and making it available on Solana in early 2026, with tokenized stock and ETF trading that runs 24/7 and settles in seconds.
With roughly $365 million already issued onchain, this represents a scale-up of Ondo’s existing tokenization business. Bringing the product to Solana follows an earlier expansion to BNB Chain.
According to Ondo’s disclosures, the tokens provide economic exposure to publicly traded stocks and ETFs, including dividend effects, with the underlying assets held at US-registered broker-dealers, along with cash in transit.
The holder’s claim is to that stream of economic returns, while shareholder rights over the underlying securities remain with the custodial structure that owns them. In short, financial performance lives onchain while formal ownership remains offchain. That is the core structure Ondo plans to bring to Solana.
How the structure works: Custody, minting and redemption
For stock tokens to be credible, they need to stay anchored to real securities.
Ondo’s design follows a classic custody-backed model. The underlying US stocks and ETFs are held with one or more US-registered broker-dealers, along with any cash that sits between trades or transfers. The tokens visible onchain are intended to reflect economic exposure to that pool of assets, rather than a separate synthetic product that could drift away from what is actually held.
That is where minting and redemption come in. Token supply is designed to expand and contract as users create and redeem tokens against the underlying assets, rather than leaving a fixed pool to trade freely on secondary markets.
Ondo says users will be able to mint and redeem 24 hours a day, five days a week, while the tokens themselves can move directly between crypto wallets and applications 24/7/365. In other words, creation and redemption align with traditional market hours, while transfers and trading follow crypto’s always-on rhythm.
Pricing is the other key component. If a token is meant to track total economic return, it cannot simply mirror the last exchange-traded share price. Dividends and corporate actions must be reflected in the data as well.
Ondo has pointed to Chainlink as the official oracle layer, and Chainlink has discussed building custom feeds for each tokenized equity that account for both price movements and events such as dividend payments. This gives protocols, trading venues and risk systems a single, consistent reference for what each token is worth at any given moment.
Solana’s technical features also matter at this level of detail. Tokenized equities require eligibility checks and transfer rules to be built into the asset’s behavior.
Solana’s Token Extensions include transfer hooks, which are pieces of code that run each time a token moves. This allows Ondo to attach conditions directly to the token, including who is allowed to hold it, which regions are excluded, and what happens when someone attempts to send it into a specific smart contract. These checks travel with the asset wherever it moves in the ecosystem.
Why Solana?
If Ondo wants tokenized US stocks to feel natural to everyday crypto users, Solana is an obvious candidate.
The network already has a large retail audience, fast confirmation times and a culture of trading applications built around low fees and near-instant execution. For something that looks and feels like an equity position but lives in a wallet alongside stablecoins and memecoins, those characteristics are hard to ignore. That context sets the stage for Ondo’s plan to launch its tokenized stocks and ETFs on Solana in early 2026.
There is also a regulatory and risk angle. These tokens are linked to regulated underlying assets, and as Ondo’s own disclosures make clear, they do not turn the holder into a direct shareholder.
That means there must be jurisdiction filters, investor eligibility checks and clear rules governing how and where the tokens can move. The product only works if those constraints are enforced consistently rather than being left to individual applications or exchanges to interpret on their own.
Solana’s Token Extensions are built with this type of real-world asset in mind. The Transfer Hook extension allows each token to call custom logic on every movement. For example, it can confirm that both the sender and receiver are permitted to hold the asset or block transfers to certain smart contracts altogether.
Instead of relying on every front end and every decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol to remember the rules, Ondo can embed those rules directly into the token itself and then focus on expanding coverage and improving the surrounding user experience.
Did you know? In the first half of 2025, Solana averaged around 3 million to 6 million daily active addresses, with peaks above 7 million on some days, while typical transaction fees were roughly $0.00025 per transaction and blocks were produced about every 400 milliseconds.
How it would work for a user (once it’s live on Solana)
The experience is expected to feel much more like a regulated investment product than a typical DeFi token.
The first step is eligibility. Ondo’s Global Markets line has been positioned for qualifying non-US investors, using jurisdiction filters and an eligibility screen. Before you ever hit “buy,” you would need to confirm that you are in a permitted region and meet the relevant requirements.
Onboarding will likely feel closer to opening a brokerage account than simply connecting a wallet to a decentralized exchange (DEX). Because the tokens are described as fully backed by underlying stocks and ETFs held at US-registered broker-dealers, along with cash in transit, access must meet strict regulatory standards.
That includes Know Your Customer (KYC) checks, custody obligations and other compliance requirements.
Once you are approved, the user flow then shifts into a more crypto-native model:
You fund a Solana wallet with a payment asset supported by Ondo for this product, typically stablecoins.
You select a ticker and buy or mint the tokenized version. Minting and redemption are described as operating 24 hours a day, five days a week, while transfers between wallets and applications can continue 24/7/365.
You hold the position like any other token in your wallet, with one important caveat: It provides economic exposure, including dividend effects, but it is not the stock or ETF itself and does not carry shareholder rights.
Upsides and limitations
The potential appeal is clear. If Ondo succeeds in making stock and ETF exposure behave more like standard tokens on Solana, users may experience faster settlement and more flexible movement of positions compared with traditional brokerage workflows.
Even with US markets moving to T+1 settlement, a day and a few seconds sit in very different buckets, especially for users who want to move value between venues or use positions within onchain applications without waiting for trades to clear.
At the same time, some limits remain built into the design. Ondo’s disclosures are clear that holders receive economic exposure only. The underlying shares and associated shareholder rights remain with the regulated custody and brokerage structure that actually owns the securities. Access is also filtered by jurisdiction and investor eligibility since the backing assets sit within that regulated environment.
Market mechanics add another layer of dependency. For the token to track the real instrument closely, liquidity must be present, prices must stay aligned, and corporate actions such as dividends need to flow through cleanly.
That is why Ondo emphasizes both broker-dealer custody and a dedicated oracle system as core components rather than optional extras. If either the custody link or the oracle layer fails, the promise of stock-like behavior onchain begins to break down, regardless of how smooth the Solana user experience may appear on the surface.
Did you know? T+1 settlement means a trade settles, with cash and securities officially exchanging hands, one business day after the trade date. If you buy a stock on Monday, it typically settles on Tuesday, assuming there is no market holiday. In the US, this became the standard for most securities on May 28, 2024, replacing the old T+2 cycle.
What to watch before this goes live on Solana
Between now and the early 2026 target, the key signals will be the launch details that determine who can use the product, how closely the tokens track the real instruments and what protections apply if something goes wrong.
Here is the short checklist worth watching:
Launch lineup: Which stocks and ETFs are supported on day one and whether Ondo sticks with the same custody-backed model it uses elsewhere.
Access rules: How non-US eligibility, jurisdiction limits and KYC checks work and what happens if a user’s status changes.
Custody and backing: Where the underlying shares and ETFs are held and how minting and redemption operate in practice.
Pricing and events: How Chainlink feeds handle both prices and corporate actions such as dividends and splits.
Onchain controls: Whether Solana Token Extensions, such as Transfer Hooks, are used and how strict the transfer rules are.
Finally, expect scrutiny. Regulators and market structure groups have warned that tokenized stock products can confuse investors because they often do not provide shareholder rights, and the token framing does not make them any less of a securities issue.
That scrutiny is likely to shape how aggressively Ondo restricts access and how explicit it is about what holders do and do not own.
AAVE price prediction indicates potential recovery to $190 within 4 weeks, though immediate support at $146.40 must hold to prevent further decline to $135 range.
Aave (AAVE) has experienced significant downward pressure in recent trading sessions, currently sitting at $147.80 after a 3.15% decline over the past 24 hours. Our comprehensive AAVE price prediction analysis suggests a complex technical picture with both immediate risks and medium-term recovery potential emerging from current oversold conditions.
AAVE Price Prediction Summary
• AAVE short-term target (1 week): $155-$165 (+5% to +12%) – Recovery bounce expected
• Aave medium-term forecast (1 month): $175-$195 range – Sustained recovery if support holds • Key level to break for bullish continuation: $182 (SMA 20 resistance)
• Critical support if bearish: $138.42 (52-week low) – Major breakdown risk below this level
Recent Aave Price Predictions from Analysts
The latest analyst predictions for AAVE reveal mixed sentiment with slight bearish bias. Hexn’s AAVE price prediction targets a modest $150 by December 25th, representing only a 1.5% upside from current levels. This conservative forecast aligns with the current Fear & Greed Index reading of 24, indicating extreme fear in the broader crypto market.
CoinCodex presents a more optimistic Aave forecast, projecting a potential surge to $212.38 within five days – a substantial 43.6% gain that would require breaking through multiple resistance levels. However, their technical analysis also identifies critical support zones at $167.35, $161.11, and $152.35, suggesting significant downside risk if current support fails.
The consensus among recent predictions leans bearish in the immediate term, with most analysts highlighting the breakdown below the $183.92 support level as a concerning technical development for AAVE’s near-term prospects.
AAVE Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Oversold Bounce
Current Aave technical analysis reveals severely oversold conditions that typically precede short-term rebounds. The RSI sits at 32.44, approaching oversold territory while maintaining room for further decline. More notably, AAVE’s position relative to Bollinger Bands shows a -0.0279 reading, indicating the price is trading below the lower band – a condition that often signals oversold extremes and potential mean reversion.
The MACD histogram at -4.4947 confirms bearish momentum remains intact, but the divergence between price action and momentum indicators suggests this selling pressure may be reaching exhaustion. AAVE’s Stochastic indicators (%K at 2.32, %D at 3.92) are deeply oversold, historically a precursor to relief rallies.
Volume analysis shows elevated trading activity at $18.8 million over 24 hours, indicating genuine interest at these lower levels. This volume profile supports the thesis that current levels may represent a temporary bottom formation.
Aave Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for AAVE
Our bullish AAVE price prediction targets an initial recovery to $165 (EMA 12 resistance), followed by a more significant move toward $190 if momentum builds. The AAVE price target of $190 represents the midpoint between current levels and the SMA 50 at $184.45, providing a realistic medium-term objective.
For this bullish scenario to unfold, AAVE must first reclaim the $152 level and establish it as support. A break above $165 would signal the beginning of a more substantial recovery phase, potentially targeting the SMA 20 at $181.90. Ultimate bullish confirmation would come from a break above $195, opening the door to test $212.38 as suggested by CoinCodex’s aggressive forecast.
Bearish Risk for Aave
The bearish case for our Aave forecast centers on a breakdown below the critical $146.40 support level. Such a break would likely trigger algorithmic selling and push AAVE toward the 52-week low at $138.42. A decisive break below this level could see AAVE testing the $125-$130 range, representing a -15% to -18% decline from current levels.
Key bearish catalysts include broader crypto market weakness, DeFi sector rotation, or failure to hold current support amid continued selling pressure. The distance from the 52-week high of 58.69% already reflects significant technical damage that could worsen under adverse conditions.
Should You Buy AAVE Now? Entry Strategy
Based on our AAVE technical analysis, the current risk-reward profile favors selective accumulation for risk-tolerant investors. The optimal entry strategy involves scaling into positions between $145-$150, with the strongest buy signal emerging on any dip toward $142-$145.
Risk management requires tight stop-losses below $138.42 to limit downside exposure. Position sizing should remain conservative given the uncertain macro environment, with initial allocations not exceeding 2-3% of total portfolio value.
For those questioning whether to buy or sell AAVE, the current setup favors patient buyers willing to endure potential near-term volatility. However, selling pressure could persist if broader market sentiment doesn’t improve, making this a higher-risk entry point suitable only for experienced traders.
AAVE Price Prediction Conclusion
Our comprehensive AAVE price prediction anticipates a recovery to $190 within the next 4-6 weeks, contingent on holding current support levels. This represents a medium confidence forecast based on oversold technical conditions and typical bounce patterns from similar setups.
Key indicators to watch include RSI movement above 40 for initial recovery confirmation, MACD histogram turning positive for momentum shift confirmation, and sustained trading above $155 for trend change validation. Timeline for this prediction extends through late January 2025, with interim targets at $165 and $175 serving as progression markers.
The primary invalidation signal would be a decisive break below $138.42, which would require reassessing our Aave forecast toward significantly lower targets in the $120-$130 range.
Bhutan is using surplus, carbon-free hydropower to mine Bitcoin, converting excess electricity into a liquid digital export rather than curtailing generation.
Mining and custody are handled by the sovereign investment arm, Druk Holding and Investments (DHI), and confined to designated jurisdictions, limiting retail exposure.
Officials describe mined Bitcoin as a foreign-currency liquidity buffer that has already supported government finances.
The central bank permits crypto activity only under a phased, sandbox-style framework linked to Gelephu Mindfulness City, with an emphasis on risk control and transparency.
Bhutan’s pitch to the crypto world is simple: If a country has abundant renewable power and limited domestic demand, it can turn electrons into digital assets.
In practice, the Himalayan kingdom has been quietly doing exactly that: using hydropower to run industrial-scale Bitcoin (BTC) mining and to build a state-backed, values-driven “green digital assets” strategy that officials say can generate hard-currency liquidity, support public spending and help develop a domestic tech workforce.
Step 1: Start with the only natural resource that scales
Bhutan’s energy system is dominated by hydropower, and electricity exports, especially to India, are a core pillar of the economy. Reportedly, Bhutan’s leadership views expanded hydropower capacity as a prerequisite for scaling its “green” crypto ambitions.
The government’s own energy planning documents frame this expansion in large numbers. Bhutan’s National Energy Policy 2025 cites a “techno-economically viable hydropower potential” of 33,000 megawatts (MW), based on the Power System Master Plan 2040, and positions hydropower alongside solar, wind and storage as central to long-term growth.
A World Bank report similarly places Bhutan’s feasible hydropower potential at roughly 33 gigawatts and notes the macroeconomic impact of recent imports of IT equipment linked to crypto mining expansion.
Recent cross-border project announcements underline how tangible the buildout has become. In November 2025, India inaugurated the 1,020-MW Punatsangchhu-II hydropower project and extended a new credit line tied to deeper energy cooperation. Officials also noted that Bhutan’s domestic power demand is around 1,000 MW, with surplus electricity exported.
Step 2: Use surplus hydropower as “computing fuel”
Bhutan’s crypto strategy is spearheaded by Druk Holding and Investments (DHI), the commercial investment arm of the royal government.
In an April 2025 interview with Reuters, DHI CEO Ujjwal Deep Dahal said Bhutan began adding cryptocurrencies to DHI’s portfolio in 2019. He framed Bitcoin mining as a way to increase access to foreign-currency liquidity and create value from surplus hydropower.
Bhutan has used some crypto-related profits to help pay government salaries for the past two years, according to senior officials in Thimphu.
A key industrial lever is the Bitdeer and DHI partnership, announced in May 2023. Bitdeer said the parties planned to launch a closed-end fund of up to $500 million to develop carbon-free digital asset mining operations in Bhutan, leveraging the country’s renewable power and Bitdeer’s mining expertise.
Step 3: Treat Bitcoin like a financial buffer for a seasonal grid
Hydropower systems often face a timing problem: Generation can surge when rivers run high and shrink when flows drop.
In January 2025, Bhutan’s Gelephu Mindfulness City (GMC) project described the country’s approach as a way to monetize surplus summer hydropower via “green Bitcoin,” then convert that value back into electricity or imports when power is tighter. The project quoted DHI’s Dahal as describing Bitcoin “strategically as a battery.”
That “battery” framing matters because it is one of Bhutan’s most consistent arguments for why mining is not merely speculation. Instead, it is positioned as infrastructure-adjacent, turning otherwise curtailed renewable generation into a liquid reserve asset.
Step 4: Keep it sovereign and increasingly regulated
Bhutan’s mining and reserve-building efforts have attracted attention because they are state-linked rather than purely private. In September 2024, blockchain analytics firm Arkham disclosed that it had identified Bhutan government-linked Bitcoin holdings on its platform and characterized those holdings as originating from mining rather than seizures. However, onchain estimates fluctuate with price movements and wallet attribution and should not be treated as audited public accounts.
On the regulatory front, Bhutan’s central bank, the Royal Monetary Authority (RMA), has publicly signaled a controlled approach. In an April 30, 2025, notice titled “RMA’s Regulatory Stance on Cryptocurrency,” the RMA said it would adopt a phased and focused strategy.
The notice stated that crypto mining and exchanges would be permitted only for entities registered with GMC. Participation would also be limited to business partners operating under the GMC framework.
This sandbox-like containment aligns with how GMC is being positioned as a special jurisdiction with its own policy toolkit and a prominent finance and digital assets pillar. That framework includes a proposed blockchain-linked currency concept, “ter,” and a planned fully reserved digital bank, Oro Bank.
Step 5: The “green coin” narrative and the risks involved
Bhutan’s officials explicitly emphasize the climate angle. For example, Dahal has argued that coins mined using Bhutan’s hydropower offset coins mined with fossil energy elsewhere and contribute to the green economy.
But even in a renewables-heavy system, these risks do not disappear:
Volatility and fiscal risk: Bitcoin’s price can swing sharply, and using volatile assets in public finance introduces budgeting risk, even if holdings are built from surplus power rather than taxes.
Transparency: Onchain tracking is not the same as official disclosure. Audited reporting and clear governance matter when reserves are state-linked.
Financial crime and consumer protection: The RMA’s phased stance and the restriction of permitted activity to GMC-registered entities reflect a preference for controlled participation rather than open retail speculation.
Testing a green Bitcoin model
Bhutan’s green Bitcoin economy is not a meme trade; it is a state-directed effort to bolt a new export, digital assets, onto the country’s existing comparative advantage in renewable power. The strategy uses a special jurisdiction, Gelephu Mindfulness City, alongside central bank guardrails to limit spillover risk.
Whether it becomes a durable model will depend less on slogans and more on hydropower expansion, disciplined reserve management and how transparently the state accounts for what it mines, holds and sells.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Wall Street’s adoption of Ethereum is closely tied to its ability to automate settlement through smart contracts, reducing reliance on slow, manual reconciliation processes.
Stablecoins and tokenized dollars now serve as a primary entry point for banks, allowing regulated US dollar transfers to move continuously on Ethereum-based rails.
Financial institutions often avoid naming Ethereum directly, instead describing it as neutral blockchain infrastructure that supports compliant financial systems.
Tokenized funds and real-world assets use Ethereum as a distribution and administration layer, while the underlying investments remain traditional financial products.
For years, the financial world viewed Ethereum primarily as a playground for digital art and digital assets. By 2025, however, a gradual shift had become clear. Wall Street had largely stopped treating the network as a “crypto” project and had begun using it as a foundational utility.
By late 2025, Ethereum was processing more than $5 trillion in quarterly transaction volume, a figure comparable in scale to traditional payment processors. Major institutions are now migrating value onto this digital rail, often without ever mentioning the word “cryptocurrency,” turning Ethereum into an increasingly used settlement layer in specific institutional contexts.
This article examines how the world’s leading financial institutions are quietly adopting Ethereum’s decentralized infrastructure.
Ethereum as financial plumbing, not a crypto asset
To the average observer, Ethereum is a “coin” to be traded. To Wall Street, however, it has become something far more practical: high-tech financial plumbing. In August 2025, VanEck CEO Jan van Eck labeled Ethereum the “Wall Street token,” highlighting that the network’s underlying architecture, the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), is becoming a global standard for bank-to-bank settlement.
Unlike legacy systems that require manual reconciliation, Ethereum functions as a “single source of truth,” where transactions are verified by a global network of nodes rather than a central clearinghouse.
Instead of relying on routes that can take days to clear trades, institutions are using Ethereum’s smart contracts to automate much of the manual work handled by middle-office operations.
This shift enables T+0 settlement, meaning transactions clear instantly. Previously, a trade would settle on a T+2 basis, as banks exchanged messages to verify funds and positions. On Ethereum, the asset transfer and the payment occur at the same moment.
In this context, Ethereum functions as foundational infrastructure that allows the traditional financial system to operate faster, at a lower cost and with fewer errors. Because Ethereum is value-agnostic, it serves as a neutral platform where financial agreements can be codified and executed without human intervention.
Stablecoins and tokenization as the entry point
Wall Street’s adoption of Ethereum’s infrastructure is also visible in the rapid growth of “tokenized dollars.” Following the passage of the GENIUS Act in July 2025, a landmark piece of US legislation that established a clear framework for stablecoins, the total market capitalization of these assets climbed to $300 billion. For banks, stablecoins on Ethereum represent digital versions of the US dollar that can move around the clock, avoiding the settlement risk associated with traditional banking hours and weekend closures.
Traditional payment giants such as Visa and Mastercard have integrated stablecoin settlement APIs to support global payments on the network. These firms are not interacting with the speculative side of crypto. Instead, they are using Ethereum-based stablecoins to settle transactions between merchants and banks in near real time.
As banks adapt to client demand for faster cross-border transfers, the Ethereum network provides the secure infrastructure needed to move these regulated digital dollars.
Did you know? The GENIUS Act, signed into law on July 18, 2025, became the first federal framework to formally authorize US banks to issue stablecoins through subsidiaries. This shift repositioned Ethereum from a regulatory gray area into a legally compliant infrastructure layer for the US dollar.
Tokenized funds and real-world assets
The evolution of Ethereum has moved beyond payments into the tokenization of more complex investment vehicles. In December 2025, JPMorgan made headlines by launching its first money market fund on the public Ethereum blockchain. Trading under the ticker MONY, the fund allows qualified investors to access yields from traditional US Treasury securities, using Ethereum as the distribution layer.
By placing a fund like MONY on the Ethereum blockchain, JPMorgan enabled peer-to-peer transferability and daily dividend reinvestment that were previously difficult to achieve. Investors can subscribe or redeem using cash or stablecoins through institutional platforms. In this structure, Ethereum is not the investment itself. It functions as the digital wrapper that increases liquidity and operational efficiency.
This development marks a turning point in which Ethereum’s smart contracts handle much of the operational burden of fund administration, significantly reducing overhead costs. By automating yield distribution through code, Ethereum allows these funds to operate with a level of precision and transparency that legacy databases cannot easily replicate.
The strategic silence: Why Wall Street is not naming Ethereum
If you examine the marketing materials of top-tier banks, you will see terms such as “onchain liquidity,” “distributed ledgers” or “programmable payments,” yet the underlying technology is almost always Ethereum. This “invisible” adoption helps explain why Ethereum is frequently chosen by Wall Street institutions.
A key technical driver is the network effect. Much like the internet relies on standardized protocols, the financial system is converging around Ethereum’s programming standards. By late 2025, multiple reports suggested that tokenized dollars on the network were quietly reshaping how money moves between major clearinghouses.
As more assets such as treasuries, bonds and real estate are tokenized on Ethereum, the network’s utility becomes increasingly evident in institutional use cases. Since its launch in 2024, BlackRock’s BUIDL fund has become the world’s largest tokenized money market fund, deploying more than $1 billion directly on the Ethereum blockchain to enable near real-time dividend distribution.
Similarly, in late 2025, JPMorgan rebranded its blockchain division as Kinexys, facilitating more than $2 billion in average daily transaction volume through Ethereum-compatible rails.
By relying on Ethereum’s “credible neutrality,” these firms avoid the constraints of proprietary private blockchains that lack global interoperability. Instead, they treat Ethereum as a neutral and largely invisible settlement layer. As a result, the network has begun to function as a standardized operating system for global capital, regardless of whether the brand is explicitly acknowledged in boardrooms.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
AAVE price prediction targets $180-190 recovery within 4-6 weeks despite current oversold conditions at $149. Technical analysis shows potential bounce from support.
The AAVE price prediction landscape shows consensus among analysts for a potential recovery despite current bearish momentum. With Aave trading at $149.32 after a sharp 6.02% daily decline, technical indicators suggest the token may be setting up for a significant bounce from oversold levels.
AAVE Price Prediction Summary
• AAVE short-term target (1 week): $162-$170 (+8-14%)
• Aave medium-term forecast (1 month): $180-$190 range (+20-27%)
• Key level to break for bullish continuation: $193.36
• Critical support if bearish: $147.13
Recent Aave Price Predictions from Analysts
Recent analyst predictions show remarkable alignment despite varying methodologies. Blockchain.News issued an AAVE price prediction targeting $180-$190 within 4-6 weeks, citing oversold technical conditions. CoinMarketCap AI’s Aave forecast aligns closely, projecting $170-$185 based on Fibonacci retracement analysis and institutional adoption potential.
The most aggressive prediction came from earlier this month, with a $240.24 target dependent on holding $162 support. This creates a clear consensus range of $170-$240 for medium-term AAVE price targets, though current technical conditions suggest the lower end is more realistic near-term.
AAVE Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Oversold Bounce
Current Aave technical analysis reveals compelling oversold conditions that typically precede price recoveries. The RSI at 32.92 sits in neutral territory but approaching oversold levels, while the token trades 10.2% below the lower Bollinger Band—a classic reversal setup.
The MACD histogram at -4.2533 confirms bearish momentum remains dominant, but historical patterns suggest this divergence often marks capitulation phases. AAVE’s position relative to moving averages shows significant disconnect: trading 11.5% below the 7-day SMA and 23.2% below the 50-day SMA creates substantial mean reversion potential.
Volume analysis supports the Aave forecast for recovery, with $53.2 million in 24-hour volume indicating institutional interest despite price weakness. The daily ATR of $14.33 suggests volatility remains elevated, typical during trend reversal periods.
Aave Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for AAVE
The primary bullish AAVE price target sits at $180-$190, representing a 20-27% upside from current levels. This aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level that CoinMarketCap AI highlighted in their analysis.
For this scenario to materialize, AAVE must first reclaim $162 support—the immediate resistance turned support level. A decisive break above $193.36 would signal momentum reversal and open the path to $207.16 immediate resistance, with ultimate targets at $232.25 strong resistance.
The institutional adoption narrative surrounding Aave’s 2026 roadmap provides fundamental support for higher valuations, particularly if governance issues resolve favorably.
Bearish Risk for Aave
Should the current support at $147.69 fail to hold, the next major AAVE price target sits at $147.13 strong support. A break below this level could trigger deeper correction toward the 52-week low of $133.98.
The primary risk factors include continued altcoin liquidity challenges and unresolved governance concerns that could pressure institutional confidence. MACD divergence suggests momentum remains tilted bearish near-term.
Should You Buy AAVE Now? Entry Strategy
Based on current Aave technical analysis, a tiered entry approach offers optimal risk-reward positioning. Primary entry zones include:
Immediate Entry: $147-150 range (current support zone) Secondary Entry: $162-165 on any pullback after initial recovery Stop-Loss: $142 (below 52-week low for risk management)
Position sizing should reflect the medium confidence level analysts assign to current predictions. Consider allocating 50% at current levels with reserves for potential $142-147 accumulation zone.
The buy or sell AAVE decision ultimately depends on risk tolerance, but technical oversold conditions favor measured accumulation over aggressive selling at current levels.
AAVE Price Prediction Conclusion
The consensus AAVE price prediction targets $180-$190 recovery within 4-6 weeks carries medium confidence based on technical oversold conditions and analyst alignment. Current price action suggests AAVE may have found near-term support around $147-149.
Key indicators to monitor include RSI movement above 35 for confirmation of oversold bounce, MACD histogram narrowing toward zero, and volume expansion on any move above $162. The critical timeline spans the next 4-6 weeks, with initial confirmation expected if AAVE can reclaim $162 within 7-10 days.
This Aave forecast remains contingent on broader cryptocurrency market stability and resolution of internal governance challenges that have weighed on institutional sentiment.
ZOOZ Strategy’s Bitcoin-backed stock has been put on a Nasdaq compliance clock after the exchange warned the company its shares no longer meet the $1 minimum bid-price requirement, raising the risk of delisting if the price fails to recover within six months.
The dual‑listed firm, which trades on Nasdaq and the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, said in a Monday statement that it plans to monitor the situation, and it may consider a reverse share split if needed.
A reverse share split is when a company reduces the number of its outstanding shares and raises the price per share proportionally, typically to lift the stock price without changing the firm’s overall market value.
The top 100 Bitcoin treasury companies collectively hold over 1 million BTC, and the number of public companies holding Bitcoin rose 38% between July and September amid deepening institutional adoption. At the time, market watchers claimed that the rising accumulation by treasury companies place upward pressure on the price of Bitcoin.
ZOOZ is built around a long‑term Bitcoin treasury strategy, and has accumulated 1,036 BTC (BTC) as a strategic asset, which gives its shareholders indirect exposure to Bitcoin. That pitch helped the stock grab attention when it launched earlier this year, but it has not prevented the share price from sliding under the $1 threshold.
The notice does not mean an immediate delisting. Under Nasdaq rules, ZOOZ has until June 15, 2026, to post a closing bid of at least $1 for 10 straight trading days, and could be eligible for a second grace period if it meets other criteria.
ZOOZ’s warning lands less than a week after KindlyMD, another Bitcoin treasury player created via a merger with David Bailey’s Bitcoin‑native holding company Nakamoto, disclosed its own price‑deficiency notice from Nasdaq after its shares slipped below the $1 mark.
Listing pressure is not limited to pure Bitcoin treasuries. Digital Currency X Technology (DCX), a digital‑asset firm that reports more than $1.4 billion in token holdings following its EdgeAI token acquisition, announced on Dec. 18 that it had received a separate Nasdaq non‑compliance notice tied to minimum market‑value requirements.
This doesn’t mean that all Bitcoin treasuries are on thin ice. Tokyo‑listed Metaplanet, which also leans on Bitcoin as a treasury asset, has continued to find ways to tap capital markets, most recently clearing the issuance of new shares and Bitcoin‑linked dividend instruments aimed at institutional investors.
Strategy, the best‑known corporate Bitcoin holder, has also kept pressing its strategy into December, adding roughly $980 million in BTC in mid‑month and lifting its total stash to over 671,000 coins.
Arizona state Senator Wendy Rogers has proposed two bills and a resolution in an effort to change the state’s laws on taxing digital assets.
In legislation prefiled with the Arizona Senate on Friday, Rogers proposed amending state statutes to exempt virtual currency from taxation (SB 1044), barring counties, cities and towns from taxing or fining entities running blockchain nodes (SB 1045), and amending the state constitution’s definition of property taxes to clarify rules on digital assets (SCR 1003).
The blockchain node bill may move through the state legislature, but the crypto tax bill and resolution would require a vote by Arizona voters during the next general election, in November 2026.
SCR 1003 would amend Arizona’s constitution to specifically exclude virtual currency from property tax, while SB 1044 would add similar language to the state’s statutes. SB 1045 would prohibit cities, towns and counties in the state from imposing “a tax or fee on a person that runs a node on blockchain technology.”
Bill barring cities or towns from taxing blockchain node activity: Source: Arizona legislature
Arizona is one of the few US states that has a law on the books allowing the government to claim ownership of digital assets that have been abandoned for at least three years. The law was part of efforts by crypto advocates to establish a digital asset reserve in Arizona, but there are other proposals to give the state more authority to invest in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC).
Rogers was one of the co-sponsors of a Bitcoin reserve bill vetoed by Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs in May. The senator condemned the move and said she would refile the bill during the next session. Cointelegraph reached out to Rogers for comment but had not received a response at the time of publication.
US states adopt crypto reserve bills, different digital asset policies
Arizona remains one of the few US states with a law establishing a digital asset reserve, along with New Hampshire and Texas. Although some lawmakers in other states have been attempting to gather support for similar bills, there are also many suggesting a different approach to digital asset taxation.
For example, Ohio’s House of Representatives passed a bill that could exempt crypto transactions under $200 from the state’s capital gain taxes. The legislation does not appear to have advanced since June.
New York Assemblymember Phil Steck proposed adding a 0.2% excise tax on “digital asset transactions, including the sale or transfer of digital assets” for the state’s residents. The bill was referred to the ways and means committee and did not appear to have advanced since August.
At the federal level, Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis submitted a draft bill in July proposing a de minimis exemption for digital asset transactions and capital gains of $300 or less. Lummis announced on Friday that she would retire from the US Senate in January 2027.
US banks are prioritizing tokenized versions of familiar products, including deposits, funds and custody, rather than launching new crypto-native assets.
Most onchain bank activity is taking place in wholesale payments, settlement and infrastructure, largely out of public view.
Regulators are increasingly allowing crypto-related banking activities, but only within tightly supervised and risk-managed frameworks.
Public blockchains such as Ethereum are being tested by major banks, but exclusively through controlled and compliant product structures.
US banks are not racing to issue speculative crypto products. Instead, they are methodically rebuilding core financial plumbing, including payments, deposits, custody and fund administration, so these services can operate on distributed ledgers. The work is incremental, technical and often invisible to retail customers, but it is already reshaping how large institutions think about money movement and settlement.
Rather than embracing unregulated crypto assets, banks are focusing on tokenization, the process of representing traditional financial claims, such as deposits or fund shares, as digital tokens recorded on a ledger. These tokens are designed to move with embedded rules, automated settlement, real-time reconciliation and reduced counterparty risk while remaining within existing regulatory frameworks.
Tokenized cash: Deposits that move like software
One of the clearest signals of this shift is the rise of tokenized deposits, sometimes described as “deposit tokens.” These are not stablecoins issued by nonbanks. Instead, they are digital representations of commercial bank deposits that are issued and redeemed by regulated banks.
JPMorgan has been among the earliest movers. Its JPM Coin system, launched for institutional clients, is positioned as a deposit token that enables real-time, 24/7 transfers on blockchain-based rails. According to JPMorgan, the system is used for peer-to-peer payments and settlement between approved clients.
In 2024, JPMorgan rebranded its broader blockchain unit as Kinexys, framing it as a platform for payments, tokenized assets and programmable liquidity rather than as a standalone “crypto” initiative.
Citi has taken a similar path. In September 2023, the bank announced Citi Token Services, integrating tokenized deposits and smart contracts into its institutional cash management and trade finance offerings. By October 2024, Citi said its tokenized cash service had moved from pilot to live production, processing multimillion-dollar transactions for institutional clients.
These initiatives are not happening in isolation. The New York Fed’s New York Innovation Center (NYIC) has published details of a regulated Liability Network (RLN) proof of concept involving banks, including BNY Mellon, Citi, HSBC, PNC, TD Bank, Truist, U.S. Bank and Wells Fargo, as well as Mastercard.
The project simulated interbank payments using tokenized commercial bank deposits alongside a theoretical wholesale central bank digital currency (CBDC) representation, all within a controlled test environment.
Did you know? Beyond cash and funds, major US banks are actively considering the tokenization of real-world asset classes such as private credit and commercial real estate. This could unlock onchain liquidity and fractional ownership, an area where traditional finance may gain an edge over typical crypto-native models.
Custody and safekeeping: Building institutional-grade controls
For any onchain system to work at scale, assets must be held and transferred under robust custody and governance standards. US banks have been steadily building this layer.
BNY Mellon announced in October 2022 that its Digital Asset Custody platform was live in the US, allowing select institutional clients to hold and transfer Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH). The bank positioned the service as an extension of its traditional safekeeping role, adapted for digital assets.
Regulators have been clarifying what is permitted. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), in Interpretive Letter 1170, stated that national banks may provide cryptocurrency custody services for customers. The US Federal Reserve has also weighed in, publishing a 2025 paper on crypto-asset safekeeping by banking organizations that outlines expectations around risk management, internal controls and operational resilience.
At the same time, regulators have emphasized caution. In January 2023, the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and OCC issued a joint statement warning banks about risks associated with crypto-asset activities and relationships with crypto-sector firms.
Tokenized funds and collateral move onto public blockchains
Beyond payments and custody, banks are also experimenting with the tokenization of traditional investment products.
In December 2025, J.P. Morgan Asset Management announced the launch of the My OnChain Net Yield Fund (MONY), its first tokenized money market fund. The firm said the fund’s shares are issued as tokens on the public Ethereum blockchain and that the product is powered by Kinexys Digital Assets.
Reportedly, JPMorgan seeded the fund with $100 million and described it as a private, tokenized representation of a traditional money market fund rather than a crypto-native yield product.
This step is significant because it links tokenized cash and tokenized yield-bearing instruments within familiar regulatory structures, illustrating how traditional asset managers are testing public blockchains without abandoning established compliance models.
Did you know? Some US banks and market participants are exploring tokenization’s role in preserving traditional trading revenue by integrating digital asset trading and brokerage infrastructure directly into bank systems. This approach allows them to keep execution, spreads and post-trade services in-house even as tokenized markets grow.
Regulation: Permitted, but closely supervised
The regulatory environment has been evolving alongside these pilots. In March 2025, the OCC clarified that national banks may engage in certain crypto-related activities, including custody and some stablecoin and payment functions, and rescinded earlier guidance that required banks to seek supervisory non-objection before proceeding.
The OCC has also issued a series of interpretive letters addressing related issues, including banks holding deposits backing stablecoins (IL 1172) and using distributed ledger networks and stablecoins for payments (IL 1174), alongside examination guidance explaining how supervisors will review such activities.
Taken together, these developments show a banking sector preparing for an onchain future in a cautious way by adapting existing products, embedding them in supervised environments and testing new infrastructure long before it reaches the mainstream.
