Bitcoin (BTC) rose on Wednesday, gaining 7.5% over the last 24 hours to trade above $93,000, as analysts expected new highs.
This came amid record capital inflows, rising realized cap and decreasing volatility, which suggested a changing market structure, according to a new joint report from Glassnode and Fanara Digital.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin has attracted a record $732 billion in new capital since the 2022 cycle low.
Breaking the resistance at $93,000 is crucial for sustaining the recovery.
Bitcoin’s recent sell-off saw it draw down as much as 36% from its all-time high of $126,000 reached on Oct. 6, sparking fears of a crypto winter.
Still, new research by Glassnode and Fanara Digital found that Bitcoin has attracted more than $732 billion in net new capital since the 2022 cycle low.
“The 2022–2025 cycle alone has attracted more capital than all previous cycles combined,” the report said, pushing the realized cap to about $1.1 trillion, while the spot price rose by over 690% to $126,000 at the peak, from $16,000.
This reflects the “profound impact of institutional adoption and the emergence of regulated investment vehicles, such as spot ETFs,” the report said, adding:
“The magnitude of capital inflows throughout the current cycle underscores a structural transformation in Bitcoin’s market depth and investor base.”
Bitcoin: Realized cap since cycle low. Source: Glassnode
Bitcoin’s realized cap is a measure of the actual capital invested in all BTC across the network and is usually the first metric to contract in bear markets. The chart above suggests that this is not the case.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s long-term volatility has nearly halved, falling to 43% from 84.4% at the peak of the 2021 bull run, underscoring a sustained dampening of systemic volatility.
This decline reflects “Bitcoin’s growing market depth and institutional participation” through ETFs and treasury companies, the report noted, adding:
“This compression in volatility highlights Bitcoin’s transition toward a more institutionally anchored asset.”
Typically, bear markets begin with rising volatility and diminishing liquidity, not when volatility is in its long-term structural decline.
The report also shows that demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs has been “exceptional” since their launch in January 2024. These investment products now hold about 1.36 million BTC worth $168 billion in assets under management, which is roughly 6.9% of the circulating supply.
“This underscores the growing integration of Bitcoin within institutional portfolios and highlights the pivotal role ETFs now play in shaping market structure.”
“BTC faced a strong rejection at $93K last week, but as price attempts to break through this level again today, we’re seeing large short-liquidation clusters forming,” Glassnode said in an X post on Wednesday, adding:
“Short liquidations can act as fuel for upside, as forced buyers amplify momentum.”
Bitcoin liquidation heatmap. Source: Glassnode
Analyst Daan Crypto Trades eyed the “local horizontal resistance” above $93,000, likewise suggesting that flipping this area into a new support zone was key to propelling the BTC/USD pair to $98,000.
The BTC price has made a “higher high and a higher low, so technically, the market structure is back to bullish on this time frame,” the analyst said, adding:
“$97K-$98K is still an interesting spot in terms of liquidity. That would be in play if this current area breaks.”
As Cointelegraph reported, more analysts are optimistic about Bitcoin’s recovery, with the Bollinger BandWidth indicator offering hope of a 2023-style BTC price surge into the year-end.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Strategy is the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, with roughly 650,000 BTC on its balance sheet.
The company’s model hinges on raising capital and converting it into BTC while keeping its market-cap-to-Bitcoin value (mNAV) above 1.
CEO Phong Le has described any Bitcoin sale as a “last resort” option that would be considered only if mNAV drops below 1 and access to new capital meaningfully deteriorates.
Even if Strategy chooses to sell a portion of its holdings, Bitcoin trades in a market with tens of billions in daily volume, and any sale would likely be targeted rather than a full exit.
Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, has spent the past five years turning itself into what it calls “the world’s first and largest Bitcoin Treasury Company.”
As of early December 2025, it held almost 650,000 Bitcoin (BTC), which is more than 3% of the 21 million supply and by far the largest stack owned by a public company.
For many traditional investors, Strategy’s stock became a kind of leveraged proxy for Bitcoin. Instead of buying BTC directly, they chose the stock because the company raises capital and converts it into Bitcoin.
The current debate comes from CEO Phong Le’s recent comments that a Bitcoin sale is possible under very specific conditions. Headlines often focus on the word “sell,” but the company presents this as risk management for extreme stress, not a shift in its long-term Bitcoin thesis.
This article looks at how the plan works and what could trigger sales, helping readers interpret future news without panic or fear of missing out (FOMO). This guide is purely informational and not investment advice.
Did you know? Recent estimates suggest that institutions now hold nearly 20% of all mined Bitcoin.
Raises capital in traditional markets through common-stock at-the-market programs, multiple series of perpetual preferred stock, such as STRK and STRF, and occasional convertible debt.
Uses much of that capital to buy more Bitcoin, which it treats as its primary treasury reserve asset.
Tracks a set of metrics to judge whether this remains sustainable and accretive for shareholders.
Two of those metrics matter here:
Bitcoin per share (BPS): How much BTC effectively sits behind each fully diluted share. Strategy publishes this as a key performance indicator.
Market-cap-to-net-asset-value (nNAV): The ratio between Strategy’s total market value and the market value of its Bitcoin holdings. If mNAV is above 1, the stock trades at a premium to its BTC.
When the company trades at a healthy premium, it can raise new equity or preferred stock with less dilution and keep growing its Bitcoin stack. That base case — where Strategy raises at a premium, buys more BTC and grows BPS — is still the model that management says it is pursuing.
The “last resort” sale trigger
The new element is a clearly stated kill switch for that model.
In recent interviews, Le explained that Strategy would consider selling some Bitcoin only if two conditions are met at the same time:
mNAV falls below 1, which means the company’s market cap drops to or below the value of the Bitcoin it holds.
Access to fresh capital dries up — e.g., if investors are no longer willing to buy its equity or preferred stock at viable terms.
He described selling BTC in that scenario as a “last resort” toolkit option to meet obligations such as preferred dividends, not as a standing plan to sell the treasury.
Put simply:
If the stock trades at or below the value of the BTC and the company cannot refinance itself, then selling a slice of BTC becomes the least bad way to protect the overall structure.
What could realistically push Strategy toward that line
Several moving parts would have to line up before the “last resort” switch is even considered.
Macro and Bitcoin price
Bitcoin has already pulled back sharply from its October all-time high near $126,000 to the mid-$80,000s, a drop of roughly 30%. Deeper or more prolonged drawdowns compress the value of Strategy’s BTC stack and tend to pressure its stock at the same time.
Equity performance and mNAV
Strategy’s market cap premium to its Bitcoin has already narrowed after a 30%-60% slide in the stock from earlier highs. In mid-November, the company briefly traded around or even below the spot value of its holdings, which suggested mNAV near 1.
Funding conditions
The business rests on being able to issue new common and perpetual preferred shares through existing shelf registrations and at-the-market (ATM) programs. If those offerings slowed sharply or if investors demanded much higher yields, that would signal stress on the funding side.
Internal obligations
Strategy has sizeable annual commitments in the form of preferred dividends and debt service. Analysts put preferred dividend obligations in the hundreds of millions of dollars per year.
Management still describes itself as a long-term Bitcoin accumulator, and the scenarios above describe a severe stress environment.
Did you know? Onchain forensics suggest that 3 million-4 million BTC is likely lost forever in dead wallets, which means a significant portion of the supply will never return to the market.
What a Strategy sale would and would not mean for Bitcoin
Given that Strategy holds 650,000 BTC, any shift from “never sell” to “might sell under stress” naturally catches traders’ attention.
Context is important, though:
Market size: Daily spot and derivatives volume in Bitcoin regularly runs into tens of billions of dollars. At the same time, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen single-day inflows and outflows measured in billions. A controlled sale of a fraction of Strategy’s holdings, even if meaningful, would enter a very large and liquid market.
Likely scale and pace: Based on Le’s own comments, any sale in a stress scenario would be targeted and partial, aimed at meeting obligations or maintaining the capital structure rather than exiting Bitcoin.
Pricing in advance: Markets often start incorporating these possibilities as soon as they are disclosed. The recent pullback in both BTC and Strategy’s stock, along with debate over mNAV, is an example of that process.
It is important to note that a conditional last resort sale framework is not the same thing as an announcement that large BTC sales are imminent.
Did you know? In Q3 2025, average daily crypto spot trading volume was about $155 billion, and another $14 billion in notional crypto derivatives traded daily on CME alone.
How to follow Strategy’s next moves
For readers who want to track this story without reacting to every headline or meme, several observable indicators can help readers understand the situation more clearly:
Start with primary sources.
US Securities and Exchange Commission filings, such as 8 Ks and prospectus supplements, show new capital raises and updated Bitcoin holdings.
Strategy’s press releases and its “Bitcoin Purchases” page summarize recent buys and total holdings.
Watch the core metrics.
US Securities and Exchange Commission filings, such as 8 Ks and prospectus supplements, show new capital raises and updated Bitcoin holdings.
Strategy’s press releases and its “Bitcoin Purchases” page summarize recent buys and total holdings.
Social media activity often reflects sentiment rather than data. “Green dot” posts, laser eyes memes and doomsday threads can be useful for reading mood, but it is worth cross-checking any claim about forced selling or insolvency against filings and numbers.
N.B. Financial situations, time horizons and risk tolerance vary by individual. This information is general in nature and should not be interpreted as advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset. Readers should consider consulting a qualified financial professional for guidance that fits their circumstances.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Texas became the first US state to add Bitcoin exposure to a state-managed investment portfolio by purchasing about $5 million of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF through its newly created Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
SB 21 shifted Texas from a crypto mining hub to an active digital asset investor. The bill authorizes the state comptroller to buy, hold and sell Bitcoin using a legislature-approved $10-million fund.
The initial allocation is small relative to Texas’ overall investment portfolio, which holds more than $667 million in S&P 500 ETFs. This signals a cautious and exploratory step.
Texas’ move stands apart from federal crypto programs, which deal mainly with seized assets. Texas made a proactive and budgeted investment.
Texas took an unprecedented step in the US when it added Bitcoin (BTC) exposure to its state-managed investment portfolio. The state invested about $5 million in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) through its newly created Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The move shows how a state can treat digital assets as part of its long-term investment strategy.
This article examines how Texas shifted from a mining center to a Bitcoin reserve state, how Senate Bill 21 (SB 21) changed its approach to digital assets and why the move suggests a broader shift in government policy.
From mining hub to Bitcoin reserve
Texas has long been a major center for Bitcoin mining because of its favorable energy prices and supportive regulations. Until 2025, however, the state itself did not own any Bitcoin.
That changed in November 2025 when the Texas Treasury Safekeeping Trust Company purchased about $5 million of the IBIT exchange-traded fund (ETF), according to the Texas Blockchain Council. The purchase was made under SB 21, a law passed in June 2025 that created the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Official transaction records have not yet been released, but the law clearly authorizes such investments.
Senate Bill 21, officially called the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Investment Act, created a special fund separate from the state treasury. This fund is managed by the Texas Treasury Safekeeping Trust Company under the same regulations that apply to other state investments.
The law allows the state comptroller to buy, hold, manage and sell Bitcoin using money specifically approved by the legislature. Lawmakers set aside $10 million for this purpose.
On Nov. 20, 2025, the state reportedly used half of that amount ($5 million) to buy shares of BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF. This is said to be the first time any US state has directly purchased Bitcoin exposure with public funds.
The state’s investment portfolio holds about $667 million in a large S&P 500 ETF and $34 million in another fund. If confirmed, the $5-million Bitcoin ETF position is small by comparison. It appears to be a cautious first step rather than a major change in strategy.
Did you know? An Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund was one of the earliest government-linked institutions to hold a Bitcoin ETF.
How SB 21 changes Texas’ approach to digital assets before this law
Before SB 21, Texas’ focus on crypto was centered on mining, grid participation and economic incentives. SB 21 shifts the state from simply hosting the industry to becoming an investor itself.
Senator Charles Schwertner, the bill’s main sponsor, described Bitcoin as the best-performing asset of the past decade. He argued that Texas should have the option to include it, just as it can invest in land or gold. Supporters of the bill emphasized long-term diversification and protection against inflation, not short-term price gains.
Some analysts see Texas’ move as further evidence that major institutions are becoming more comfortable with Bitcoin ETFs. Others warn that Bitcoin’s high volatility creates added risks for public money and that governments must be especially careful when investing taxpayer funds in such assets. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas also noted that IBIT is now reportedly held by an Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund.
Why this looks like a shift in government crypto policy
State governments in the US have generally viewed Bitcoin as either a regulatory issue or a factor affecting the power grid. SB 21 shifts that view by treating Bitcoin as an allowable long-term store of value that can be held and managed like traditional mutual funds. This is not an endorsement of Bitcoin’s price or value. It is a reclassification of how the asset is governed.
Texas’ Bitcoin reserve differs from current federal digital asset programs. Federal efforts, such as the proposed US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve or the Digital Asset Stockpile, focus on cryptocurrency seized through law enforcement actions. By contrast, Texas’ reserve is funded directly by an act of the legislature and managed under the same fiduciary standards as other state investments.
This difference carries weight. Texas is making an active and budgeted investment decision rather than passively accepting forfeited assets. However, the move does not create national policy because no federal law currently authorizes Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
Several US states have explored similar ideas, but most remain in the planning stage. States such as Wyoming and Oklahoma have proposed legislation for digital asset reserves, but Texas is the only state to have completed an actual purchase.
Did you know? Harvard Endowment made a $443-million bet on BlackRock’s IBIT. The investment accounts for about 20% of Harvard’s reported US-listed public equity holdings.
What Texas’ Bitcoin reserve move does not mean
Setting clear boundaries is important to avoid overstating the significance of Texas’ decision. Texas is not making Bitcoin legal tender or accepting it as payment for taxes, and it has not shifted its investment portfolio in any significant way toward digital assets.
The move also does not create a binding precedent for the federal government or other states, nor does it signal a unified national policy. Most states and federal agencies continue to approach digital assets with caution, citing concerns about price volatility, consumer protection and energy use.
Did you know? Analysts increasingly compare BTC reserves to traditional gold reserves. Bitcoin’s verifiable supply, transparent onchain traceability and fixed issuance make it an unconventional but measurable counterpart to gold.
Policy risks and open questions
Including Bitcoin in the state’s investment scheme exposes public officials to new forms of risk. Large price declines could generate political criticism, especially during budget reviews. Research on public fund management shows that high volatility can lead to questions about whether officials made appropriate decisions.
SB 21 requires adequate record-keeping and fiduciary oversight, but specific operational rules such as rebalancing triggers, volatility limits, exit plans or any intention to move from ETF holdings to direct Bitcoin custody remain undisclosed.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
More big-name financial institutions are opening the door to Bitcoin exposure, signaling a growing institutional appetite for regulated digital asset products.
Bank of America, the second-largest US bank, reportedly recommended a 1%–4% cryptocurrency allocation to its wealth management clients through the Merrill, Bank of America Private Bank and Merrill Edge platforms, according to a statement shared with Yahoo Finance on Tuesday.
“For investors with a strong interest in thematic innovation and comfort with elevated volatility, a modest allocation of 1% to 4% in digital assets could be appropriate,” said Chris Hyzy, chief investment officer at Bank of America Private Bank, in the statement shared with Yahoo.
Starting Jan. 5, the bank will enable its clients to gain access to four new Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB), Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) and BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).
The development will enable the bank’s wealthiest clients to gain exposure to Bitcoin ETFs, which were previously only available upon request. The bank’s over 15,000 wealth advisers were unable to recommend any cryptocurrency investment products.
“Our guidance emphasizes regulated vehicles, thoughtful allocation, and a clear understanding of both the opportunities and risks,” added the bank’s chief investment officer.
The bank’s Bitcoin allocation recommendation is signaling a wider institutional appetite for regulated cryptocurrency investment products. It comes a day after Vanguard, the world’s second-largest asset manager, enabled crypto ETF trading for its clients, reversing its previous stance on digital asset ETFs.
BlackRock helped set the Bitcoin allocation playbook
BlackRock, the world’s largest asset management firm, was the first big institution to recommend an up to 2% Bitcoin allocation to its clients, Cointelegraph reported in December 2024.
Around 1%–2% is a “reasonable range for Bitcoin exposure,” which poses the “same share of overall portfolio risk” as a typical allocation to “the ‘magnificent 7’ group of mostly mega-cap tech stocks,” wrote BlackRock in a report at the time.
The “magnificent 7” refers to Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Tesla, Meta and Nvidia.
In June, asset management firm Fidelity also recommended a 2% to 5% Bitcoin allocation, which was small enough to minimize the risk of a Bitcoin crash, but large enough to enjoy any upside from BTC’s inflationary hedge.
Earlier in October, Morgan Stanley also suggested a 2% to 4% allocation to crypto portfolios for investors and financial advisers, further signaling that large financial institutions are moving toward a shared playbook of modest, risk-managed exposure to digital assets.
The United Kingdom is considering a ban on crypto donations to political parties, a move that would directly affect Reform UK and its leader, Nigel Farage, who have leaned into digital assets as part of a pitch for a crypto revolution in Britain, according to Politico.
The option is being discussed as part of an Elections Bill intended to bolster trust in politics, even though a ban was not included in an earlier policy paper, Politico reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter.
The report claimed that a government spokesperson did not deny that the plan is under review, saying further details will be set out in the bill.
Reform UK became the first party to accept crypto donations this year. Speaking at the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas in May, Farage announced that the group is accepting Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrency contributions from eligible donors. The party has since launched a portal for crypto gifts.
The move comes as Reform UK has surged into a clear polling lead, with the party sitting around 29% in the latest national averages, placing it ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives. The trend shows a steady rise through mid-2025 before stabilizing near the top, while Labour has slid to about 18% and the Conservatives to 17%, leaving the traditional two-party system fractured.
According to the Politico report, those urging action against crypto donations include former Cabinet Office Minister Pat McFadden, Business Committee Chair Liam Byrne, as well as Phil Brickell, who leads an all-party group on anti-corruption and fair tax.
The clampdown advocates say digital assets make it harder to trace the true source of funds, raising the risk that foreign money could slip through, alongside proceeds of crimes.
Ex-Reform UK leader jailed for pro-Russia advocacy
The debate has intensified after Nathan Gill, the former head of Reform in Wales, was jailed last month for being paid to make pro-Russian statements in the European Parliament. Farage has disowned Gill and rejected any link.
The Elections Bill is also expected to tighten rules on shell companies and unincorporated associations, and to require parties to keep risk assessments for donations that may pose a threat of foreign interference.
AAVE price prediction suggests upward movement to $185-195 range over next 2 weeks, with bullish MACD histogram supporting recovery from oversold conditions.
AAVE Price Prediction: Technical Recovery Points to $185-195 Target
With Aave trading at $168.75 and showing early signs of bullish momentum divergence, our AAVE price prediction indicates a potential recovery toward the $185-195 range over the next two weeks. The combination of improving MACD momentum and neutral RSI conditions suggests Aave may be setting up for a technical bounce.
AAVE Price Prediction Summary
• AAVE short-term target (1 week): $180-185 (+6.7% to +9.6%)
• Aave medium-term forecast (1 month): $185-220 range with potential 30% upside
• Key level to break for bullish continuation: $175.57 (SMA 20 resistance)
• Critical support if bearish: $147.13 (immediate and strong support confluence)
Recent Aave Price Predictions from Analysts
While no major analyst predictions have emerged in the past 72 hours, the lack of fresh bearish calls combined with AAVE’s technical setup suggests institutional attention may be shifting. The absence of new predictions often precedes directional moves as smart money accumulates positions before broader market recognition. Our Aave forecast fills this gap by focusing on pure technical indicators rather than sentiment-driven predictions.
AAVE Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Short-Term Recovery
The Aave technical analysis reveals several compelling factors supporting a near-term bullish bias. The MACD histogram at 1.7642 shows the first meaningful bullish momentum signal in recent sessions, while the RSI at 39.50 provides room for upward movement without immediately hitting overbought conditions.
AAVE’s current position at 0.3177 within the Bollinger Bands indicates the token is trading in the lower half of its recent range but not at extreme oversold levels. This positioning often precedes mean reversion moves toward the middle band at $175.57. The daily ATR of $14.22 suggests sufficient volatility for meaningful price moves in either direction.
Volume analysis from Binance spot market shows $21.99 million in 24-hour trading, providing adequate liquidity for institutional participation. The 2.15% daily gain demonstrates early buying interest emerging near current levels.
Aave Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for AAVE
Our primary AAVE price target centers on the $185-195 range, representing the confluence of the EMA 26 ($185.34) and psychological resistance. For this scenario to unfold, AAVE must first reclaim the SMA 20 at $175.57, which would confirm the bullish MACD signal.
A break above $195 could accelerate movement toward $217.13 (immediate resistance), potentially reaching 28% gains from current levels. The 52-week range provides a roadmap, with AAVE currently 52.83% below its high, suggesting substantial room for recovery if broader crypto conditions improve.
Bearish Risk for Aave
The bearish scenario activates if AAVE fails to hold the $147.13 support confluence. This level represents both immediate and strong support, making it critical for maintaining the current weak bullish trend. A breakdown below $147 could target the 52-week low near $125.30, representing potential 26% downside.
Risk factors include broader crypto market weakness, DeFi sector rotation, or failure of the MACD momentum to translate into sustained buying pressure.
Should You Buy AAVE Now? Entry Strategy
Based on our analysis, the question of whether to buy or sell AAVE depends on risk tolerance and timeframe. Conservative buyers should wait for a clear break above $175.57 with volume confirmation before entering positions. This approach trades potential upside for higher probability setups.
Aggressive buyers can consider current levels with tight stop-losses below $162.29 (24-hour low). Position sizing should account for the 8.4% stop-loss distance to the recent low. A reasonable risk-reward setup targets $185 (first target) with stops at $162, providing approximately 1:2 risk-reward ratio.
AAVE Price Prediction Conclusion
Our AAVE price prediction carries medium-high confidence for the $180-185 initial target within 7-10 days, based on the convergence of oversold RSI conditions, bullish MACD momentum, and strong support holding. The Aave forecast becomes increasingly uncertain beyond the one-month timeframe due to broader market dependencies.
Key validation signals include reclaiming the SMA 7 at $179.54 and maintaining volume above $20 million daily. Invalidation occurs with a break below $162.29, which would suggest the recent bounce was merely a dead-cat bounce rather than the start of meaningful recovery.
Traders should monitor Bitcoin’s correlation impact and overall DeFi sector performance, as these factors will heavily influence AAVE’s ability to reach our projected targets. The technical setup provides the framework, but macro crypto conditions will determine execution success.
Bitcoin mining and hardware maker Canaan has entered into a partnership to co-develop a renewable-energy adaptive Bitcoin mining platform, expanding its focus on green energy as the industry seeks sustainable ways to meet its power demands.
In conjunction with green-power developer SynVista Energy, Canaan plans to create a mining rig that uses an artificial intelligence-powered scheduling engine to synchronize energy supply with dynamic hash-rate demand, the miner announced on Monday.
The goal is to maximize the utilization of clean energy without compromising grid stability, according to Canaan.
Canaan said the scheme will advance “green mining from isolated pilots to an engineered, replicable solution,” that will offer the industry an “economically viable and regulation-ready blueprint.”
We’re excited to announce our new partnership with SynVista Energy, launching a renewable-adaptive Bitcoin-mining ecosystem that integrates clean power, storage, and hash-rate in one intelligent platform. ⚡️
“High renewable penetration is accompanied by growing output volatility and mounting curtailment risk. Traditional strategies struggle to convert surplus electrons into bankable returns,” the company added.
Bitcoin (BTC) mining has long been criticized for its energy consumption, with some estimates claiming it’s roughly equivalent to the power use of a mid-sized country, such as Poland or Thailand.
However, Bitcoin proponents argue that Bitcoin mining can help support grid stability while mitigating the strain on the grid from AI data centers.
Canaan and SynVista are also tokenizing RWA
At the same time, both Canaan and SynVista Energy will tokenize generation output, carbon savings and mining yields onchain, to create a “verifiable data foundation for the digitalization and real-world-asset (RWA) securitization of green-power plants.”
“Longer term, the onchain data backbone will enable tokenization and securitization of generation cash-flows and carbon credits, enhancing price transparency and liquidity of green assets and providing a new paradigm for converging digital economy with energy transition,” Canaan said.
Data from the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index estimates that Bitcoin’s share of global electricity is roughly 0.8%.
However, in parallel, the share of renewable energy used in Bitcoin mining has steadily increased, growing at an average annual rate of 5.8%, according to an April report by the industry organization MiCA Crypto Alliance.
This isn’t Canaan’s first foray into using renewables to power Bitcoin mining. In October, the company launched a gas-to-computing pilot in Canada, which converts stranded natural gas into energy for Bitcoin mining, according to its October mining update.
Meanwhile, in September, the miner inked a deal with Soluna Holdings, a company that operates data centers powered by renewable energy, to deploy miners at a wind-powered data center in Texas.
Bitcoin is facing significant selling at the start of the new week, with some analysts expecting a drop as low as $50,000.
Several altcoins turned down from their overhead resistance and are threatening to dip below their support levels.
Bitcoin (BTC) began December on a weak note, signaling that the bears are not willing to let go of their advantage. Trader Peter Brandt said in a post on X that BTC’s chart shows support in the sub-$70,000 to mid-$40,000 zone.
Another analyst who is cautious in the near term is network economist Timothy Peterson. According to data that Peterson posted on X, BTC’s second half of 2025 is very similar to the second half of 2022. If history repeats, BTC may not see a sharp rally until well into Q1 next year.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView
A minor positive for the bulls is that crypto exchange-traded products attracted $1.07 billion in inflows last week, breaking their four-week losing streak, according to CoinShares data. That shows demand at lower levels.
Could BTC and the major altcoins hold on to their support levels? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
S&P 500 Index price prediction
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose above the moving averages on Tuesday and extended the recovery above the resistance line on Friday.
The bulls are expected to encounter significant selling at the 6,920 level. If the price turns down from the 6,920 resistance and breaks below the moving averages, it suggests a range formation. The index could then consolidate between 6,550 and 6,920 for some time. Sellers will be back in command if they yank the price below the 6,550 level.
Conversely, a break and close above the 6,920 resistance indicates the resumption of the uptrend. The index could surge to the 7,000 level and later to the 7,300 level.
US Dollar Index price prediction
The US Dollar Index (DXY) turned down from the 100.50 resistance and broke below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) (99.57) on Wednesday.
The immediate support on the downside is at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) (99.05). If the price rebounds off the 50-day SMA, the bulls will again try to pierce the 100.50 resistance. If they succeed, the index could soar toward the 102 level.
Alternatively, a break and close below the 50-day SMA suggests that the bulls are losing their grip. The index could then drop to the 98 level. That points to a possible consolidation between 96.21 and 100.50 for some time.
Bitcoin price prediction
BTC turned down sharply on Monday after failing to rise above the 20-day EMA ($91,999) in the past few days.
If the Bitcoin price closes below $84,000, the BTC/USDT pair could collapse to $80,600. Buyers are expected to aggressively defend the $80,600 to $73,777 zone. On the way up, the bulls will have to push and maintain the price above the 20-day EMA to signal strength. The pair could then rally to the 50-day SMA ($101,438).
Contrary to this assumption, if the $73,777 support gives way, the selling could intensify and the pair risks diving to $54,000.
Ether price prediction
Ether (ETH) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($3,052) on Sunday, indicating that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.
The bears will attempt to sink the Ether price below the $2,623 level, starting the next leg of the downtrend. If they do that, the ETH/USDT pair could plunge to $2,400 and then to the $2,111 level.
The bulls will have to push and maintain the price above the 20-day EMA to signal strength. The pair could then rally to the breakdown level of $3,350, which is a crucial level for the bears to defend.
XRP price prediction
XRP (XRP) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($2.18) on Sunday, indicating that the bulls have given up.
The XRP/USDT pair could drop to the support line of the descending channel pattern, where the buyers are expected to step in. If the XRP price turns up sharply from the support line and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it suggests that the pair may remain inside the channel for a while longer.
On the other hand, a break and close below the support line opens the doors for a fall to the $1.61 support. Buyers are expected to defend the $1.61 level with all their might, as a break below it may sink the pair to $1.25.
BNB price prediction
BNB’s (BNB) recovery fizzled out at the 20-day EMA ($894), signaling that the bears remain active at higher levels.
The sellers are attempting to sink the BNB price below the Nov. 21 low of $790. If they can pull it off, the BNB/USDT pair could resume its downtrend toward the next target objective of $730.
Instead, if the price turns up and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it suggests that the bulls are buying at lower levels. The pair could then rally toward the 50-day SMA ($999), where the bears are expected to renew their selling.
Solana price prediction
Solana (SOL) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($140) on Sunday and is threatening to skid below the $126 support.
If the price sustains below $126, the SOL/USDT pair could descend to $110 and, after that, to the solid support at $95.
This negative view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns up sharply and breaks above the 20-day EMA. The Solana price could then climb to the 50-day SMA ($163), where the bears are again expected to mount a strong defense. A close above the 50-day SMA signals the start of a new up move.
Sellers are trying to strengthen their position by pulling the Dogecoin price below the $0.13 support. If they manage to do that, the DOGE/USDT pair could tumble toward the Oct. 10 low of $0.10.
Time is running out for the bulls. They will have to swiftly drive the price above the 20-day EMA to signal a comeback. The large range of $0.14 to $0.29 will be back in play after buyers propel the pair above the 50-day SMA ($0.17).
Cardano price prediction
The bears are attempting to start the next leg of the downward move below the $0.38 support in Cardano (ADA).
If the price closes below $0.38, the ADA/USDT pair could plummet to the Oct. 10 low of $0.27. Buyers are expected to fiercely defend the $0.27 level, as a break below it may sink the pair to $0.23.
The 20-day EMA ($0.45) remains the key overhead resistance level to watch out for in the near term. A break and close above the 20-day EMA suggests the selling pressure is reducing. Buyers will have to drive the Cardano price above the 50-day SMA ($0.55) to signal that the downtrend may have ended.
Bitcoin Cash price prediction
Buyers attempted to push Bitcoin Cash (BCH) above the $568 resistance on Sunday, but the bears held their ground.
Repeated failure to clear the overhead resistance increases the risk of a breakdown below the 50-day SMA ($514). If that happens, the BCH/USDT pair could slide to the solid support at $443.
The flattening moving averages and the RSI just below the midpoint suggest a possible consolidation in the short term. Buyers will have to drive the Bitcoin Cash price above the $568 level to retain the advantage. The pair could then rally to $615.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Buterin sees a nontrivial 20% chance that quantum computers could break current cryptography before 2030, and he argues that Ethereum should begin preparing for that possibility.
A key risk involves ECDSA. Once a public key is visible onchain, a future quantum computer could, in theory, use it to recover the corresponding private key.
Buterin’s quantum emergency plan involves rolling back blocks, freezing EOAs and moving funds into quantum-resistant smart contract wallets.
Mitigation means smart contract wallets, NIST-approved post-quantum signatures and crypto-agile infrastructure that can swap schemes without chaos.
In late 2025, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin did something unusual. He put numbers on a risk that is usually discussed in sci-fi terms.
Citing forecasting platform Metaculus, Buterin said there is “about a 20% chance” that quantum computers capable of breaking today’s cryptography could arrive before 2030, with the median forecast closer to 2040.
A few months later at Devconnect in Buenos Aires, he warned that elliptic curve cryptography, the backbone of Ethereum and Bitcoin, “could break before the next US presidential election in 2028.” He also urged Ethereum to move onto quantum-resistant foundations within roughly four years.
According to him, there is a nontrivial chance of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer arriving in the 2020s; if so, then the risk belongs on Ethereum’s research roadmap. It should not be treated as something for a distant future bucket.
Did you know? As of 2025, Etherscan data shows more than 350 million unique Ethereum addresses, highlighting how widely the network has grown even though only a small share of those addresses hold meaningful balances or remain active.
Why quantum computing is a problem for Ethereum’s cryptography
Most of Ethereum’s security rests on the elliptic curve discrete logarithm (ECDLP) equation, which is the basis for the elliptic curve digital signature algorithm (ECDSA). Ethereum uses the secp256k1 elliptic curve for these signatures. Simply:
Your public key is a point on the curve derived from that private key.
Your address is a hash of that public key.
On classical hardware, going from private key to public key is easy, but going backwards is believed to be computationally infeasible. That asymmetry is why a 256-bit key is treated as effectively unguessable.
Quantum computing threatens that asymmetry. Shor’s algorithm, proposed in 1994, shows that a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could solve the discrete log equation and related factorization equations in polynomial time, which would undermine schemes like Rivest-Shamir-Adleman (RSA), Diffie-Hellman and ECDSA.
The Internet Engineering Task Force and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) both recognize that classical elliptic curve systems would be vulnerable in the presence of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC).
Buterin’s Ethereum Research post on a potential quantum emergency highlights a key subtlety for Ethereum. If you have never spent from an address, only the hash of your public key is visible onchain, and that is still believed to be quantum safe. Once you send a transaction, your public key is revealed, which gives a future quantum attacker the raw material needed to recover your private key and drain the account.
So, the core risk is not that quantum computers break Keccak or Ethereum’s data structures; it is that a future machine could target any address whose public key has ever been exposed, which covers most user wallets and many smart contract treasuries.
What Buterin said and how he frames risk
Buterin’s recent comments have two main pieces.
First is the probability estimate. Instead of guessing himself, he pointed to Metaculus’s forecasts that put the chance of quantum computers capable of breaking today’s public key cryptography at roughly one in five before 2030. The same forecasts place the median scenario around 2040. His argument is that even this kind of tail risk is high enough for Ethereum to prepare in advance.
Second is the 2028 framing. At Devconnect, he reportedly told the audience that “elliptic curves are going to die,” citing research that suggests quantum attacks on 256-bit elliptic curves might become feasible before the 2028 US presidential election. Some coverage compressed this into a headline like “Ethereum has four years,” but his message was more nuanced:
Current quantum computers cannot attack Ethereum or Bitcoin today.
Once CRQCs exist, ECDSA and related systems become structurally unsafe.
Migrating a global network to post-quantum schemes takes years, so waiting for obvious danger is itself risky.
In other words, he is thinking like a safety engineer. You do not evacuate a city because there is a 20% chance of a major earthquake in the next decade, but you do reinforce the bridges while you still have time.
Did you know? IBM’s latest roadmap pairs new quantum chips, Nighthawk and Loon, with a goal of demonstrating fault-tolerant quantum computing by 2029. It also recently showed that a key quantum error correction algorithm can run efficiently on conventional AMD hardware.
Inside the “quantum emergency” hard-fork plan
Long before these recent public warnings, Buterin laid out a 2024 Ethereum Research post titled “How to hard-fork to save most users’ funds in a quantum emergency.” It sketches what Ethereum could do if a sudden quantum breakthrough blindsides the ecosystem.
Imagine a public announcement about large-scale quantum computers going live and attackers already draining ECDSA-secured wallets. What then?
Detect the attack and roll back
Ethereum would revert the chain to the last block before large-scale quantum theft became clearly visible.
Disable legacy EOA transactions
Traditional externally owned accounts (EOAs) that use ECDSA would be frozen from sending funds, which would cut off further theft through exposed public keys.
Route everything through smart-contract wallets
A new transaction type would let users prove, through a zero-knowledge STARK, that they control the original seed or derivation path — e.g., a Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) 32 HD wallet preimage, for a vulnerable address.
The proof would also specify new validation code for a quantum-resistant smart contract wallet. Once verified, control of the funds moves to that contract, which can enforce post-quantum signatures from that point on.
Batch proofs for gas efficiency
Because STARK proofs are large, the design anticipates batching. Aggregators submit bundles of proofs, which lets many users move at once while keeping each user’s secret preimage private.
Crucially, this is positioned as a last resort recovery tool, not Plan A. Buterin’s argument is that much of the protocol plumbing needed for such a fork, including account abstraction, strong ZK-proof systems and standardized quantum-safe signature schemes, can and should be built.
In that sense, quantum emergency preparedness becomes a design requirement for Ethereum infrastructure, not just an interesting thought experiment.
What the experts say about timelines
If Buterin is leaning on public forecasts, what are hardware and cryptography specialists actually saying?
On the hardware side, Google’s Willow chip, unveiled in late 2024, is one of the most advanced public quantum processors so far, with 105 physical qubits and error-corrected logical qubits that can beat classical supercomputers on specific benchmarks.
Yet Google’s quantum AI director has been explicit that “the Willow chip is not capable of breaking modern cryptography.” He estimates that breaking RSA would require millions of physical qubits and is at least 10 years out.
Academic resources point in the same direction. One widely cited analysis finds that breaking 256-bit elliptic curve cryptography within an hour using surface code-protected qubits would require tens to hundreds of millions of physical qubits, which is far beyond anything available today.
On the cryptography side, the NIST and academic groups at places like the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have warned for years that once cryptographically relevant quantum computers exist, they will break essentially all widely deployed public key systems, including RSA, Diffie-Hellman, Elliptic Curve Diffie-Hellman and ECDSA, through Shor’s algorithm. This applies both retrospectively, by decrypting harvested traffic, and prospectively, by forging signatures.
That is why the NIST has spent nearly a decade running its Post Quantum Cryptography competition and, in 2024, finalized its first three PQC standards: ML-KEM for key encapsulation and ML-DSA and SLH-DSA for signatures.
There is no expert consensus on a precise “Q-Day.” Most estimates sit in a 10-to-20-year window, although some recent work entertains optimistic scenarios where fault-tolerant attacks on elliptic curves could be possible in the late 2020s under aggressive assumptions.
Policy bodies like the US White House and the NIST take the risk seriously enough to push federal systems toward PQC by the mid-2030s, which implies a nontrivial chance that cryptographically relevant quantum computers arrive within that horizon.
Seen in that light, Buterin’s “20% by 2030” and “possibly before 2028” framing is part of a broader spectrum of risk assessments, where the real message is uncertainty plus long migration lead times, not the idea that a code-breaking machine is secretly online today.
Did you know? A 2024 National Institute of Standards and Technology and White House report estimates that it will cost around $7.1 billion for US federal agencies to migrate their systems to post-quantum cryptography between 2025 and 2035, and that is just one country’s government IT stack.
What needs to change in Ethereum if quantum progress accelerates
On the protocol and wallet side, several threads are already converging:
Account abstraction and smart-contract wallets
Moving users from bare EOAs to upgradeable smart contract wallets, through ERC-4337-style account abstraction, makes it much easier to swap out signature schemes later without emergency hard forks. Some projects already demo Lamport-style or eXtended Merkle Signature Scheme (XMSS)-style quantum-resistant wallets on Ethereum today.
Post-quantum signature schemes
Ethereum will need to pick (and battle-test) one or more PQC signature families (likely from the NIST’s ML-DSA/SLH-DSA or hash-based constructions) and work through trade-offs in key size, signature size, verification cost and smart contract integration.
Crypto agility for the rest of the stack
Elliptic curves are not just used for user keys. BLS signatures, KZG commitments and some rollup proving systems also rely on discrete log hardness. A serious quantum resilient roadmap needs alternatives for those building blocks as well.
On the social and governance side, Buterin’s quantum emergency fork proposal is a reminder of how much coordination any real response would require. Even with perfect cryptography, rolling back blocks, freezing legacy accounts or enforcing a mass key migration would be politically and operationally contentious. That is part of why he and other researchers argue for:
Building kill switch or quantum canary mechanisms that can automatically trigger migration rules once a smaller, deliberately vulnerable test asset is provably broken.
Treating post-quantum migration as a gradual opt-in process that users can adopt long before any credible attack rather than a last-minute scramble.
For individuals and institutions, the near-term checklist is simpler:
Prefer wallets and custody setups that can upgrade their cryptography without forcing a move to entirely new addresses.
Avoid unnecessary address reuse so fewer public keys are exposed onchain.
Track Ethereum’s eventual post-quantum signature choices and be ready to migrate once robust tooling is available.
Quantum risk should be treated the way engineers think about floods or earthquakes. It is unlikely to destroy your house this year, but likely enough over a long horizon that it makes sense to design the foundations with that in mind.
Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest public Bitcoin holder, is creating a $1.44 billion US dollar reserve to support dividend payments on its preferred stock and interest on its outstanding debt.
Strategy on Monday announced the establishment of a US dollar reserve funded through proceeds from the sale of Class A common stock under its at-the-market offering program.
“Strategy’s current intention is to maintain a USD Reserve in an amount sufficient to fund at least twelve months of its dividends, and Strategy intends to strengthen the USD Reserve over time, with the goal of ultimately covering 24 months or more of its dividends,” the company said.
Alongside the launch of the reserve, Strategy disclosed an additional purchase of 130 Bitcoin (BTC) for $11.7 million, bringing its total holdings to a symbolic value of 650,000 BTC, acquired for $48.38 billion.
USD Reserve to complement BTC holdings
“Establishing a USD Reserve to complement our BTC Reserve marks the next step in our evolution,” Strategy founder Saylor said, adding that the new financial tool will better position the company to navigate short-term market volatility.
Strategy CEO and president Phong Le highlighted that the company’s latest BTC purchase — made in the past two weeks — brings its total holdings to 650,000 BTC, or about 3.1% of the 21 million BTC that will ever exist.
An excerpt from Strategy’s Form 8-K. Source: SEC
“In recognition of the important role we play in the broader Bitcoin ecosystem, and to further reinforce our commitment to our credit investors and shareholders, we have established a USD Reserve that currently covers 21 months of dividends,” Le noted.
