US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have posted five consecutive weeks of net outflows, with investors pulling roughly $3.8 billion from the products over the period.
During last week, the funds recorded about $315.9 million in net outflows, according to data from SoSoValue. The biggest weekly withdrawal during this 5-week streak occurred in the week ending Jan. 30, when spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs recorded about $1.49 billion in net outflows.
The net weekly outflows come as some sessions posted inflows. On Friday, Bitcoin ETFs saw about $88 million in inflows, but they were outweighed by larger redemption days earlier in the week. Notable withdrawals included more than $410 million on Feb. 12, along with additional negative sessions from Feb. 17 through Feb. 19, leaving the weekly total firmly negative.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs see outflows for five consecutive weeks. Source: SoSoValue
As of Friday, spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated roughly $54.01 billion in net inflows since launch. Total net assets stood near $85.31 billion, representing approximately 6.3% of Bitcoin’s overall market capitalization.
Recent withdrawals from spot Bitcoin ETFs appear tied to institutional positioning rather than a loss of long-term interest in the asset, according to Vincent Liu, chief investment officer at Kronos Research. He said the outflows reflect portfolio de-risking as geopolitical tensions and broader macro uncertainty rise.
Liu added that flows may remain unstable in the near term. Escalating trade disputes and tariff developments have reinforced a risk-off environment across markets, leaving digital assets sensitive to macro headlines.
“Market inflows will be dependent on macro events like incoming Thursday’s initial jobless claims, as weaker data could revive expectations for future rate cuts and help support sentiment currently at 14 extreme fear on the crypto fear and greed index,” he told Cointelegraph.
Spot Ether (ETH) ETFs have also faced sustained selling pressure, with flows turning negative across the past five weeks as investors trimmed exposure to the second-largest cryptocurrency.
Ether ETFs also see weekly outflows. Source: SoSoValue
During last week, the funds recorded about $123.4 million in net outflows, according to SoSoValue data. The weekly losses came despite occasional positive sessions. Ether ETFs posted inflows on several days, including about $48.6 million on Feb. 17 and $10.3 million on Feb. 13, but they were outweighed by heavier selling earlier in the week.
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EXCERPT : ALGO shows oversold conditions at $0.09 with RSI at 37.93. Technical analysis suggests potential recovery to $0.11-$0.16 range within 4-6 weeks as Algorand tests key resistance levels….
EXCERPT: ALGO shows oversold conditions at $0.09 with RSI at 37.93. Technical analysis suggests potential recovery to $0.11-$0.16 range within 4-6 weeks as Algorand tests key resistance levels.
While specific analyst predictions from major KOLs are limited for the immediate term, recent forecasts from blockchain analysts provide insight into ALGO’s potential trajectory. According to Peter Zhang’s analysis from mid-January 2026, “Algorand (ALGO) shows bullish momentum despite recent decline. Technical indicators suggest potential 19-42% upside to $0.16-$0.19 range within 4-6 weeks.”
Similarly, Caroline Bishop noted that “Algorand shows bullish potential with RSI at 60.5 and MACD divergence signaling recovery from oversold conditions,” with analysts eyeing $0.16-$0.19 targets within the same timeframe.
According to on-chain data from major analytics platforms, Algorand’s current oversold conditions and trading volume patterns suggest accumulation phases that historically precede price recoveries.
ALGO Technical Analysis Breakdown
The current ALGO price prediction is heavily influenced by oversold technical conditions. With ALGO trading at $0.09, the RSI reading of 37.93 indicates the token is approaching oversold territory, typically a precursor to potential bounce-back scenarios.
The MACD analysis reveals a bearish histogram of 0.0000 with both MACD (-0.0060) and signal line (-0.0060) in negative territory, suggesting continued short-term weakness. However, the convergence between these lines could signal an impending momentum shift.
Algorand’s position within the Bollinger Bands shows significant compression, with the current price sitting at 0.25 of the band width. This positioning near the lower band at $0.08 suggests ALGO is trading at potentially oversold levels, while the middle band at $0.10 represents immediate resistance.
The moving average structure reveals a bearish configuration with price below all major SMAs: 7-day ($0.09), 20-day ($0.10), 50-day ($0.11), and 200-day ($0.17). This Algorand forecast suggests any recovery must first reclaim the 20-day SMA at $0.10.
Algorand Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
In the bullish case for this ALGO price prediction, a recovery above the 20-day SMA at $0.10 could trigger momentum toward the 50-day SMA at $0.11. A sustained break above $0.11 aligns with analyst targets suggesting potential for the $0.16-$0.19 range.
Key bullish catalysts include RSI recovery above 50, MACD histogram turning positive, and volume expansion above the current $2.3 million daily average. The Bollinger Band squeeze suggests potential for volatility expansion, which could favor upside momentum if supported by broader market conditions.
Technical confirmation would require ALGO to establish $0.10 as support and demonstrate consecutive daily closes above this level.
Bearish Scenario
The bearish scenario for this Algorand forecast centers on a breakdown below the lower Bollinger Band at $0.08. Such a move could trigger further selling toward psychological support at $0.075 or lower.
Risk factors include continued MACD bearish momentum, RSI falling below 30 into oversold territory, and broader cryptocurrency market weakness. The significant gap between current price ($0.09) and the 200-day SMA ($0.17) highlights the extent of the technical damage requiring repair.
A failure to hold current support levels could see ALGO retesting 2025 lows.
Should You Buy ALGO? Entry Strategy
For this ALGO price prediction strategy, patient accumulation appears favorable at current levels with strict risk management. Entry points around $0.088-$0.092 offer attractive risk-reward ratios targeting the $0.11-$0.16 resistance zone.
Recommended approach includes dollar-cost averaging on any dips toward the lower Bollinger Band at $0.08, with stop-loss positioned below $0.075 to limit downside exposure.
Volume confirmation above $3 million daily average would strengthen any breakout attempts above $0.10 resistance.
Risk management should limit ALGO exposure to 2-3% of total portfolio given the current technical uncertainty and broader market conditions.
Conclusion
This Algorand forecast suggests ALGO is positioned for potential technical recovery from oversold conditions, with medium-term targets in the $0.11-$0.16 range appearing reasonable based on historical resistance levels and recent analyst projections. However, any ALGO price prediction must account for the current bearish technical structure requiring significant momentum shifts for sustained upside.
The convergence of oversold RSI conditions, compressed Bollinger Bands, and analyst targets provides a cautiously optimistic outlook, though confirmation through volume and momentum indicators remains essential.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are speculative and subject to high volatility. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before investing.
Injective (INJ) shows bullish momentum at $3.41 with neutral RSI and key resistance breaks. Analysts target $3.50-$4.00 range within 4-6 weeks as technical indicators align.
Injective Protocol (INJ) is showing signs of technical recovery after recent consolidation, with the token currently trading at $3.41 following a 4.76% daily gain. As we analyze the current market structure and technical indicators, several key price levels emerge for the coming weeks.
Recent analyst predictions paint a cautiously optimistic picture for Injective’s price trajectory. Peter Zhang noted on February 18, 2026: “Injective (INJ) trades at $3.11 with neutral RSI at 34.86. Technical analysis suggests potential recovery to $3.50-$4.00 range by March 2026, with key resistance at $3.22.”
Felix Pinkston provided a more detailed Injective forecast on February 15, stating: “INJ Price Prediction Summary: Short-term target (1 week): $3.41; Medium-term forecast (1 month): $3.41-$3.90 range; Bullish breakout level: $3.41; Critical support: $3.08.”
Additionally, Caroline Bishop observed on February 14: “Injective (INJ) shows mixed signals at $3.20 with neutral RSI and bearish momentum. Technical analysis suggests potential recovery to $3.50-$4.00 range within 4-6 weeks if key resistance breaks.”
The consensus among these analysts points to a $3.50-$4.00 target range, with key resistance levels that need to be overcome for sustained upward momentum.
INJ Technical Analysis Breakdown
The current technical picture for Injective presents several compelling signals. With INJ trading at $3.41, the token sits above its 7-day SMA ($3.22) and 20-day SMA ($3.23), indicating short-term bullish momentum. However, the price remains significantly below the 50-day SMA ($4.19) and 200-day SMA ($8.18), suggesting longer-term bearish pressure still exists.
The RSI reading of 46.61 places INJ in neutral territory, neither overbought nor oversold, which provides room for movement in either direction. The MACD histogram at 0.0000 indicates a potential momentum shift, though the overall MACD remains bearish at -0.2354.
Bollinger Bands analysis shows INJ positioned at 0.72 within the bands, with the upper band at $3.62 serving as immediate resistance. The current position suggests the token has room to move toward the upper band before encountering significant selling pressure.
Key trading levels reveal immediate resistance at $3.57 and strong resistance at $3.72. On the downside, immediate support sits at $3.24, with strong support at $3.07. The daily ATR of $0.25 indicates moderate volatility, typical for INJ’s current trading range.
Injective Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
In the bullish case for this INJ price prediction, a break above the immediate resistance level of $3.57 could trigger a rally toward $3.72 and eventually the $4.00 target cited by multiple analysts. The path higher would require:
Sustained trading volume above the recent 24-hour average of $7.06 million
RSI moving into the 50-60 range, confirming bullish momentum
A decisive break above the Bollinger Band upper limit at $3.62
If these conditions align, the medium-term target of $3.50-$4.00 becomes highly achievable within the next 4-6 weeks, representing potential gains of 17-25% from current levels.
Bearish Scenario
The bearish scenario for Injective forecast involves a failure to hold the current support structure. Key risk factors include:
A break below the immediate support at $3.24, which could trigger selling toward $3.07
Continued pressure from the significant gap to the 50-day SMA at $4.19
Overall crypto market weakness that could impact altcoin performance
In this scenario, INJ could retest the $3.07 strong support level, representing a potential 10% decline from current prices. A break below this level could see further downside toward the $2.84 Bollinger Band lower limit.
Should You Buy INJ? Entry Strategy
Based on the current technical setup, potential entry strategies for INJ include:
Conservative Approach: Wait for a pullback to the $3.24 support level for a lower-risk entry, with a stop-loss below $3.07. This provides a favorable risk-reward ratio for the $3.50-$4.00 upside targets.
Aggressive Approach: Enter on any break above $3.57 with conviction, using the $3.24 level as a stop-loss. This strategy captures momentum but carries higher risk if the breakout fails.
Risk management remains crucial given INJ’s position below longer-term moving averages. Position sizing should account for the potential 10-15% downside risk to key support levels.
Conclusion
This INJ price prediction suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for Injective Protocol in the coming weeks. The convergence of analyst targets around $3.50-$4.00, combined with improving short-term technical indicators, supports a bullish bias for the March timeframe.
However, investors should remain aware that INJ still trades well below its longer-term moving averages, and broader crypto market conditions will significantly impact price action. The technical setup favors the bulls if key resistance levels can be overcome with volume.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are inherently speculative and carry significant risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
Large Bitcoin (BTC) holders have steadily increased their holdings in recent months, with the total balance climbing back to levels last seen before the October 10, 2025, market crash.
At the same time, crypto exchange data shows whale-related outflows averaging 3.5% of exchange-held BTC over a 30-day rolling period, the highest since late 2024.
BTC whale reserves return to pre-October peak
Bitcoin wallets or “whales” holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC, have rebuilt reserves over the past three months. The cohorts increased their total balance to 3.09 million, from 2.86 million BTC on Dec. 10, 2025, a 230,000 BTC addition that restores their balance to pre-October 2025 levels.
Total BTC balance of large holders (1k-10k). Source: CryptoQuant
Crypto analyst caueconomy said the full drawdown in whale reserves has been reversed over the past 30 days with the accumulation of 98,000 BTC. The broader distribution phase began in August 2025 (after BTC hit $124,000), after which Bitcoin struggled to sustain a rally significantly higher.
BTC spot market data supports the recovery. Throughout 2026, the average BTC order size has ranged from 950 BTC to 1,100 BTC, the most consistent stretch of large-ticket activity since September 2024.
Similar clusters appeared during the February–March 2025 correction. During that phase, retail orders accounted for the majority of activity, while large blocks appeared more intermittently and in smaller clusters.
Bitcoin spot average order size. Source: CryptoQuant
CryptoQuant analyst maartunn reported $8.24 billion in whale BTC exchange flows moved into Binance over the past 30 days, marking a 14-month high. Retail flows reached $11.91 billion and have flattened over the same period. The retail-to-whale ratio now sits at 1.45, and it continues to drop as the larger-size deposits increase.
Binance whale to exchange flows. Source: CryptoQuant
Parallel to these inflows, Glassnode data shows gross exchange whale withdrawals averaging 3.5% of total exchange-held BTC supply over a 30-day period, the strongest pace since November 2024.
Based on current exchange balances, that translates to about 60,000–100,000 BTC in withdrawals over the past month.
While gross inflows to exchanges have also increased, the elevated withdrawal ratio suggests that much of that incoming BTC is being offset by strong outbound transfers, leaving net exchange balances relatively stable.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Bitcoin bulls are struggling to sustain the intraday rallies, indicating that every minor rise is being sold into.
Select major altcoins are showing weakness, signaling a drop to their strong support levels.
Bitcoin (BTC) bulls pushed the price above $68,300 but are struggling to maintain the higher levels. BTC is likely to record its fifth consecutive red monthly candle in the absence of a major rally in the next few days. That is the longest losing streak since 2018/19 when BTC fell for six successive months. A minor positive for the bulls is that the losing streak in 2018/19 was followed by a 131.6% rally over the following five months, per CoinGlass data.
Another indicator signaling a possible rally to the upside is the Bollinger Bands. According to crypto analyst Dorkchicken, the monthly Bollinger Bands are at their “tightest” level on record. All previous such instances have resulted in a bullish breakout, except the breakdown to $16,000 from $20,000 in 2022.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView
Although signs point to a possible up move, traders should keep a close watch on BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) flows to gauge institutional activity. US spot BTC ETFs have recorded $403.9 million in net outflows this week, according to SoSoValue data. Unless Friday witnesses sharp inflows, reversing losses of the past three days, the ETFs are on track for a five-week outflow streak. A sustained recovery may be difficult without institutional participation.
Could buyers push BTC and select major altcoins above their overhead resistance levels? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price prediction
BTC bulls have maintained the price above the immediate support at $65,118, indicating demand at lower levels.
Buyers will have to push the Bitcoin price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($71,247) to gain the upper hand. If they manage to do that, the BTC/USDT pair may climb to the breakdown level of $74,508. Sellers are expected to aggressively defend the $74,508 level, as a break above it suggests the pair may have formed a short-term bottom. The pair may then ascend to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($82,258).
Sellers will have to yank the price below the $65,118 level to signal strength. The pair may then retest the Feb. 6 low of $60,000, which is likely to attract solid buying by the bulls.
Ether price prediction
Ether (ETH) has been consolidating between the $1,750 and the $2,111 level, indicating uncertainty about the next directional move.
There is minor support at $1,897, but if the level cracks, the ETH/USDT pair may drop to the $1,750 support. Buyers are expected to fiercely defend the $1,750 level, as a close below it may sink the pair to $1,537.
The bulls will be back in the driver’s seat on a close above the $2,111 resistance. If they can pull it off, the Ether price may rally to the 50-day SMA ($2,665). Sellers may again attempt to halt the recovery at the 50-day SMA, but if the buyers prevail, the pair may surge to $3,045.
XRP price prediction
The failure of the bulls to push XRP (XRP) above the 20-day EMA ($1.50) suggests a lack of demand at higher levels.
The XRP/USDT pair may slide to the support line, which is a crucial level to watch out for. If the XRP price turns up sharply from the support line and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it suggests that the pair may remain inside the descending channel for some more time. Buyers will have to pierce the downtrend line to signal a short-term trend change.
Contrarily, a break and close below the support line indicates that the bears are in command. The pair may then tumble to $1.11 and subsequently to $1.
BNB price prediction
BNB (BNB) has been gradually sliding toward the $587 to $570 support zone, indicating that the bears are in control.
If the BNB price turns down and skids below the support zone, the BNB/USDT pair may start the next leg of the downtrend to the psychological level at $500.
This bearish view will be negated in the near term if the bulls push the price above the $669 resistance. If that happens, the pair may surge to the breakdown level of $730 and then to the 50-day SMA ($797). Such a move suggests that the pair may have bottomed out in the short term.
Solana price prediction
Solana (SOL) bulls are attempting to maintain the price above the immediate support at $76, but the bounce lacks strength.
That heightens the risk of a break below the $76 level. If that happens, the SOL/USDT pair may plummet to the Feb. 6 low of $67. Buyers are expected to mount a strong defense at the $67 level, as a close below it may sink the pair to $50.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the breakdown level of $95. That indicates the bears are losing their grip. The Solana price may then rally to the 50-day SMA ($114).
Dogecoin price prediction
Buyers are attempting to push Dogecoin (DOGE) above the 20-day EMA ($0.10), but the bears have held their ground.
A minor positive in favor of the bulls is that they have not given up much ground to the bears. That increases the possibility of a break above the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the DOGE/USDT pair may rally to the breakdown level of $0.12.
Contrary to this assumption, if the Dogecoin price turns down and breaks below $0.09, it suggests that the bulls have given up. That might sink the pair to the critical $0.08 support.
Bitcoin Cash price prediction
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has slipped below the 20-day EMA ($548), indicating that the bears are attempting to take charge.
If the Bitcoin Cash price sustains below the 20-day EMA, the BCH/USDT pair may plummet to the next major support at $500. Buyers are expected to vigorously defend the $500 level, as a close below it may open the doors for a fall to the vital support at $443.
The bulls will have to push and maintain the price above the 50-day SMA ($575) to signal strength. The pair may then jump to $600 and later to $631. Buyers are expected to encounter aggressive selling in the $631 to $670 zone.
Buyers will have to drive the Hyperliquid price above $32.50 to seize control. The HYPE/USDT pair may then pick up momentum and surge to the $35.50 to $38.42 resistance zone.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA ($30.01) and breaks below the 50-day SMA, it suggests that the bulls are losing their grip. The pair may then slump toward the $20.82 support, where buyers are expected to step in.
Cardano price prediction
Buyers are struggling to push Cardano (ADA) above the 20-day EMA ($0.28), but a minor positive is that they have not ceded much ground to the bears.
The bulls will again attempt to drive the Cardano price above the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the ADA/USDT pair may march toward the stiff overhead resistance at the downtrend line. Buyers will have to achieve a close above the downtrend line to signal a potential short-term trend change.
Sellers are likely to have other plans. They will strive to tug the price below the support line, indicating the resumption of the downtrend. The next stop on the downside is likely to be $0.15.
Monero price prediction
Monero (XMR) has been consolidating in a downtrend, indicating that the bears have kept up the pressure.
Sellers will attempt to strengthen their position by pulling the Monero price below the $309 level. If they manage to do that, the XMR/USDT pair might drop to the $276 level. Buyers are expected to defend the $276 level with all their might, as a close below it may sink the pair to $247.
On the upside, the bulls will have to drive and maintain the price above the 20-day EMA ($360) to signal strength. The pair may then climb to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $414.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
A US federal judge in Tennessee temporarily blocked the state from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction markets operator Kalshi’s sports event contracts.
The ruling, issued by Judge Aleta Trauger of the US District Court for the Middle District of Tennessee on Thursday, allows Kalshi to continue offering sports-related event contracts to users in the state while its lawsuit against Tennessee regulators proceeds.
Trauger found that Kalshi is likely to succeed on the merits of its claim that federal commodities law preempts Tennessee’s attempt to regulate its sports markets as illegal gambling.
The court concluded that Kalshi’s sports event contracts are “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act, over which the law grants the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) exclusive jurisdiction, and held that Tennessee’s enforcement efforts are likely preempted under conflict preemption principles.
The injunction applies to the identified state officials, while the Tennessee Sports Wagering Council itself was dismissed on sovereign immunity grounds, and Kalshi was ordered to post a $500,000 bond.
Long-running clash with states
The Tennessee case marks another chapter in a broader clash over how to treat event contracts in the United States.
An earlier temporary restraining order from Trauger had already paused enforcement of Tennessee’s cease-and-desist letter, which alleged that Kalshi was operating unlicensed sports wagering, ordered it to stop offering sports event contracts to customers in Tennessee, void those contracts and refund deposits, and threatened fines and further legal action.
Kalshi has similarly gone to federal court in multiple states, including Nevada, New Jersey, and Connecticut, over cease-and-desist actions targeting its event markets, with courts reaching divergent conclusions on whether to grant preliminary relief.
CFTC steps in to defend prediction markets
The injunction also lands against a shifting federal backdrop, as the CFTC moves to assert primacy over prediction markets.
In a video message on Tuesday, CFTC Chair Michael Selig said the agency had filed a friend-of-the-court brief to defend its “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets, warning state authorities that the commission would meet them in court if they tried to undermine federal oversight of these derivative markets.
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
Selling pressure in US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs continued Thursday, with analysts noting the cryptocurrency is on track for one of its worst yearly starts.
Spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs saw $165.8 million in outflows Thursday, bringing weekly losses to $403.9 million, according to SoSoValue data.
The redemptions moved the funds closer to a possible five-week outflow streak, with year-to-date (YTD) losses totaling $2.7 billion.
Daily flows in US spot Bitcoin ETFs this week. Source: SoSoValue
Trading activity continued to shrink, falling 21% over the week and reaching its lowest levels since late December, signaling weakening investor activity.
Despite $53.9 billion in cumulative net inflows, analysts, including DropsTab, noted that 2026 is shaping up to be “one of the worst yearly starts in Bitcoin’s history,” with BTC prices down about 22% year-to-date, according to TradingView data.
BlackRock’s IBIT leads losses with $368 million in outflows this week
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) accounted for the bulk of outflows this week, totaling $368 million, according to Farside data.
Other US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw little or no activity this week, aside from about $50 million in outflows from the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) on Wednesday.
Daily flows in US spot Bitcoin ETFs by issuer. Source: Farside.co.uk
Some major financial institutions reported reducing IBIT exposure earlier this week, with Brevan Howard cutting its holding in the fund by as much as 85% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Bitcoin set for one of its worst yearly starts
The ongoing outflows from Bitcoin ETFs coincide with weakening investor sentiment, as multiple sources point to unusually low BTC price levels compared to previous cycles.
Drops Analytics highlighted Bitcoin’s price in the context of halving — an event that reduces BTC’s block reward once every four years and is typically followed by price surges in the years that follow.
Source: Drops Analytics
“Almost two years later, BTC trades around $66,000 — nearly the same level as during the April 2024 halving,” Drops Analytics said in a Telegram post on Thursday.
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
ARB trades at $0.10 with RSI at extreme oversold levels (25.12). Technical analysis suggests potential 25-40% recovery to $0.125-$0.14 resistance zone within 4-6 weeks.
Arbitrum (ARB) has experienced significant selling pressure, dropping 9.64% in the last 24 hours to trade at $0.10. However, technical indicators suggest the token may be approaching a potential reversal point, with extreme oversold conditions creating an opportunity for a relief rally.
Recent analyst coverage shows mixed sentiment for ARB. Unusual Whales provided a bullish outlook in early January, projecting a possible 14-27% increase to $0.25-$0.28 within 2-4 weeks, citing “bullish MACD momentum despite prevailing negative market sentiment.”
However, current market conditions have shifted significantly since that prediction. While specific recent analyst predictions are limited, on-chain metrics suggest ARB is approaching oversold levels that historically have preceded bounce attempts.
ARB Technical Analysis Breakdown
The current technical setup for ARB reveals several key insights:
RSI Signals Extreme Oversold Territory: At 25.12, ARB’s RSI has dropped well below the traditional oversold threshold of 30, suggesting potential for a technical bounce. Such extreme readings often precede short-term reversals.
MACD Shows Bearish Momentum: The MACD line sits at -0.0162 with a histogram reading of 0.0000, indicating bearish momentum has stalled but hasn’t yet turned positive. This neutral histogram suggests momentum may be stabilizing.
Bollinger Band Analysis: ARB is trading near the lower Bollinger Band with a %B position of 0.0366, indicating the price is hugging the lower boundary. The middle band at $0.12 represents the first major resistance level.
Moving Average Structure: ARB trades below all major moving averages, with the 7-day SMA at $0.11 providing immediate resistance. The 200-day SMA at $0.30 highlights the significant distance from long-term bullish territory.
Arbitrum Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
In a recovery scenario, ARB would need to reclaim the $0.11 level (7-day SMA) to confirm a bounce attempt. The next targets would be:
– First target: $0.115 (previous support turned resistance)
– Second target: $0.125-$0.13 (EMA 26 and middle Bollinger Band region)
– Breakout target: $0.14 (upper Bollinger Band)
A successful break above $0.14 could open the door for a test of the 50-day SMA at $0.16, representing a 60% gain from current levels.
Bearish Scenario
If selling pressure continues, ARB faces limited support levels:
– Immediate support: $0.09 (lower Bollinger Band and recent lows)
– Major support: $0.08-$0.085 (psychological level)
– Extended downside: $0.07 (potential capitulation level)
A break below $0.09 would signal further weakness and potentially trigger additional selling from leveraged positions.
Should You Buy ARB? Entry Strategy
For traders considering ARB positions, the current oversold conditions present both opportunity and risk:
Conservative Entry: Wait for confirmation above $0.11 with increased volume before entering long positions. This approach reduces risk but may miss the initial bounce.
Aggressive Entry: Consider small position sizes at current levels ($0.10) with tight stop-losses at $0.095. The risk-reward ratio favors this approach given oversold conditions.
Dollar-Cost Averaging: Gradual accumulation between $0.095-$0.105 may be suitable for longer-term investors, with stop-losses below $0.085.
Conclusion
Our ARB price prediction suggests a potential 25-40% recovery to the $0.125-$0.14 range over the next 4-6 weeks, based on extreme oversold technical conditions. The Arbitrum forecast remains cautiously optimistic in the short term, though broader market conditions will ultimately determine the sustainability of any bounce.
The current setup offers an asymmetric risk-reward opportunity, with defined support at $0.09 and resistance targets well above current levels. However, traders should be prepared for continued volatility and maintain strict risk management protocols.
Disclaimer: This ARB price prediction is based on technical analysis and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
Professional traders are paying a 13% premium for downside protection as Bitcoin struggles to maintain support above $66,000.
While stocks and gold remain strong, $910 million in Bitcoin ETF outflows suggest that institutional investor caution is rising.
Bitcoin (BTC) price entered a downward spiral after rejecting near $71,000 on Sunday. Despite successfully defending the $66,000 level throughout the week, options markets reflect growing fear as professional traders avoid downside price exposure.
Even with relative strength in the stock market and gold prices, traders seem to be effectively betting on a $60,000 retest rather than overreacting to Bitcoin price dips.
BTC two-month options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: laevitas.ch
Bitcoin put (sell) options traded at a 13% premium relative to call (buy) instruments on Thursday. Under neutral conditions, the delta skew metric typically ranges between -6% and +6%, indicating balanced demand for upside and downside strategies. The fact that these levels have been sustained over the past four weeks shows that professional sentiment is leaning heavily toward caution.
Top BTC options strategies at Derbit past 48 hours, USD. Source: Laevitas.ch
This bearish bias is clear in the neutral-to-bearish positioning seen in Bitcoin options. According to Laevitas data, the bear diagonal spread, short straddle and short risk reversal were the most traded strategies on the Deribit exchange over the past 48 hours.
The first lowers the cost of the bearish bet because the short-term option loses value faster, while the second maximizes profit if Bitcoin price barely moves. The short risk reversal, on the other hand, generates profit from a downward move with little to no upfront cost, but it carries unlimited risk if the price spikes.
Weak institutional demand for Bitcoin ETFs fuels discontent
To better gauge the risk appetite of traders, analysts often look at stablecoin demand in China. When investors rush to exit the cryptocurrency market, this indicator usually drops below parity.
USD stablecoin premium/discount relative to USD/CNY rate. Source: OKX
Under neutral conditions, stablecoins should trade at a 0.5% to 1% premium relative to the US dollar/Yuan exchange rate. This premium compensates for the high costs of traditional FX conversion, remittance fees and the regulatory friction caused by China’s capital controls. The current 0.2% discount suggests moderate outflows, though this is an improvement from the 1.4% discount seen on Monday.
Part of the current discontent among traders can be explained by the lackluster flows in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which serve as a proxy for institutional demand.
US-listed Bitcoin ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: Farside Investors
US-listed Bitcoin ETFs have seen $910 million in total outflows since Feb. 11, which likely caught bulls off balance, especially as Bitcoin traded 47% below its all-time high while gold prices hovered near $5,000, up 15% in just two months. Similarly, the S&P 500 index sat only 2% below its own all-time high, indicating that this risk-aversion is largely restricted to the cryptocurrency sector.
While Bitcoin options signal a fear of further downside, traders are likely staying extremely cautious until a clear rationale for the crash to $60,200 on Feb. 6 finally emerges.
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Dash, a layer-1 blockchain protocol with privacy-preserving features, announced on Thursday the integration of Zcash’s “Orchard” shielded pool into the Dash Evolution chain, a secondary layer on the L1 network that supports smart contract functionality.
The integration will go live following the completion of cybersecurity audits and is expected to launch in March, according to an announcement shared with Cointelegraph.
Initially, the integration will support basic transfers of Zcash (ZEC) from one party to another on the Evolution chain, with subsequent upgrades adding Orchard’s privacy features for tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), the announcement said.
The price of the DASH (DASH), the native token of the network, surged by over 125% in January. Dash briefly reached a local high of about $96 on the Binance crypto exchange before retracing to current levels.
Dash’s price action shows two large spikes in 2025 and 2026, fueled by the growth of the privacy narrative. Source: TradingView
Onchain privacy protocols and privacy blockchain tokens gained significant momentum in 2025 and early 2026, with proponents of the technology framing it as a response to increased financial surveillance from governments and corporations.
Lack of privacy is holding back crypto payments, while the tech comes under fire
“Lack of Privacy may be the missing link for crypto payments adoption,” according to Changpeng Zhao (CZ), the co-founder of the Binance cryptocurrency exchange.
Transaction data could also reveal information about key partnerships and other trade secrets to competitors, Avidan Abitbol, a former business development specialist for the Kaspa cryptocurrency project, told Cointelegraph.
Agata Ferreira, assistant professor at the Warsaw University of Technology, argues that true financial privacy is achieved through a combination of regulation, culture and code, rather than simply protecting onchain metadata.
User anonymity can still be breached, and ownership of privacy tokens can be determined through forensic analysis and law enforcement investigation, according to critics of the technology, like author and Bitcoin (BTC) advocate Saifedean Ammous.
Author of “The Bitcoin Standard,” Saifedean Ammous talks to Cointelegraph’s Gareth Jenkinson about onchain privacy. Source: Cointelegraph
In January 2026, Dubai’s Financial Services Authority (DFSA), a financial regulator for the emirate, banned privacy tokens, including ZEC and XMR (XMR), the native token of the Monero privacy protocol.
The ban does not prevent citizens from holding the tokens, but does prohibit regulated crypto exchanges from selling the tokens to new users, highlighting the tension between state regulators and privacy technology.
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