Bitcoin-backed borrowing at the Gibraltar-based Xapo Bank is increasingly being used for long-term financial planning rather than short-term liquidity, according to the bank’s 2025 Digital Wealth Report.
Shared with Cointelegraph, the report says 52% of the Bitcoin-backed loans issued by Xapo in 2025 carried a 365-day term, with many of those loans remaining open even as new loan creation slowed later in the year.
The bank, which primarily caters to high-net-worth individuals and private clients, said the trend reflects members using Bitcoin as collateral to unlock liquidity while preserving long-term exposure, rather than tapping loans for temporary cash needs.
“Long-term Bitcoiners, many of whom are now holding the majority of their wealth in Bitcoin, finally felt comfortable taking some profit,” the report said. “At the same time, the underlying conviction didn’t waver. Most of our long-term members continued to hold the bulk of their Bitcoin through periods of heavy market movement.”
The data comes from Xapo’s first calendar year of operating its Bitcoin-backed lending product, which allows qualified clients to borrow US dollars against their Bitcoin holdings. It offers a view into how Bitcoin is being used inside regulated banking rails as productive collateral integrated into longer-term financial planning.
From launch narrative to observed behavior
Xapo launched its Bitcoin-backed USD loans on March 18, 2025, targeting long-term Bitcoin holders seeking liquidity without selling their assets.
At the time, the bank positioned the product as a conservative alternative to earlier crypto lending models, offering loan terms of up to 365 days and relatively low loan-to-value ratios.
Xapo Bank CEO Seamus Rocca previously told Cointelegraph that growing confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term outlook was encouraging holders to borrow rather than liquidate their positions, signaling a shift away from short-term speculation toward longer-term thinking.
The 2025 report suggests that expectation has materialized in practice. While loan issuance moderated later in the year, outstanding loan balances continued to grow, indicating that borrowers were keeping loans open rather than using them as short-term liquidity tools.
Rocca said in the report that the pattern reflects “disciplined, private-bank-style financial behaviour,” with members using Bitcoin as productive capital rather than a short-term liquidity tool.
Loan volumes are also concentrated in regions like Europe and Latin America. According to Xapo Bank, the two regions accounted for 85% of total loan volume, at 56% and 29% respectively.
Members’ BTC holdings, per region, quarter-on-quarter. Source: Xapo Bank
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Fellow analyst Titan of Crypto said that after sweeping the previous monthly low at $84,000 and past quarterly low around $80,000, BTC price could rebound toward the first fair value gap (FVG) between $79,000 and $81,000.
Above that, the next area of interest is the second FVG between $84,000 and $88,000.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Titan of Crypto
A FVG happens when the price moves very fast, leaving a gap in a three-candle pattern. The first candle’s wick and the third candle’s wick don’t overlap at all, showing an imbalance where no trading occurred.
Additionally, exchange order-book liquidity data from CoinGlass showed the price pinned below two sell-order clusters at $80,000 and just above $85,000.
“2 strong liquidity levels shining bright for $BTC,” Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC said in his latest post on X, adding:
“Will markets get enough of a bounce at the start of Feb to take both out? IMO yes, but it may take a little time and the US passing the Crypto bill as a catalyst.”
Bitcoin liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass
If the $80,000 level is broken, it could spark a liquidation squeeze, forcing short sellers to close positions and driving prices toward $85,000, which is the next major liquidity cluster.
February’s first Bitcoin ETF inflows give hope
Discussing whether demand is returning at lower BTC prices, market analyst CoinBureau was optimistic.
“Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $561.9M in net inflows yesterday, ending 4 straight days of outflows. Not a single ETF saw outflows,” the analyst said in a Tuesday post on X, adding:
“February’s first inflow day has already outpaced all of January. The bid is back.”
Data from market intelligence platform Santiment shows that Bitcoin’s latest rebound to $78,300 from $74,600 came after FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) levels reached their highest levels since November 2025.
This signals the potential for a relief rally as seen in “previous two instances following FUD,” Santiment said.
Bitcoin: positive vs. negative commentary. Source: Santiment
As Cointelegraph reported, the (MVRV) z-score has reached its lowest level ever recorded, signalling “fire-sale valuations for Bitcoin,” and also hinting at a potential rebound in the near term.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Bitcoin has started a relief rally, which is expected to face selling near $84,000.
Several major altcoins are at risk of breaking below their support levels if the bulls fail to clear the overhead resistance levels.
Bitcoin (BTC) turned up from the $74,508 level on Monday, and the buyers are attempting to maintain the price above $79,000. BTC analyst PlanC said in a post on X that the fall to the $75,000 to $80,000 zone might be “the deepest pullback opportunity this Bitcoin bull run.”
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, plunged into the “Extreme Fear” zone with a score of 14, the lowest in 2026. Crypto analytics platform Santiment said in a report on Friday that the extreme negativity on social media was a silver lining as “historically, crypto markets move in the opposite direction of the crowd’s expectations.”
Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView
However, not everyone believes that a bottom is in. Several analysts are bearish on BTC and expect it to fall further. Traders on Polymarket also anticipate the downtrend to continue, with the odds of BTC falling below $65,000 rising to 72% on Monday.
Could BTC and the major altcoins start a strong relief rally in the near term? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
S&P 500 Index price prediction
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell to the 50-day simple moving average (6,864) on Thursday, but the bulls successfully defended the level.
The bulls will have to thrust the price above the resistance line of the ascending channel pattern to indicate the resumption of the uptrend. The index may then rally to 7,290.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the resistance line and breaks below the 20-day exponential moving average ($6,929), it suggests that the index may remain inside the channel for a while longer. The bears will gain the upper hand on a close below the support line. The index may then decline toward the 6,550 support.
US Dollar Index price prediction
The US Dollar Index (DXY) tumbled below the 96.21 support on Tuesday, but the bears could not sustain the lower levels.
The bulls pushed the price back above the 96.21 level on Wednesday, but the recovery is expected to face selling at the 20-day EMA ($97.78). If the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, the bears will attempt to sink the index below the 96.21 level.
On the other hand, a break and close above the 20-day EMA suggests that the break below the 96.21 level may have been a bear trap. The index may then rally toward the stiff overhead resistance of 100.54.
Bitcoin price prediction
BTC fell below the Nov. 21, 2025, low of $80,600 on Saturday and reached the critical support of $74,508 on Monday.
The relative strength index (RSI) plunged into the oversold territory, signaling a possible relief rally in the near term. The Bitcoin price is expected to face selling in the $80,600 to $84,000 zone. If the BTC/USDT pair turns down sharply from the overhead zone, the risk of a break below the $74,508 level increases. The next support on the downside is at $60,000.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the moving averages. That suggests the $74,508 level will continue to behave as a floor for some more time.
Ether price prediction
Ether (ETH) broke below the $2,623 level on Saturday and fell to the next major support of $2,111 on Monday.
The RSI has slipped into the oversold category, indicating that the selling may have been overdone in the near term. That increases the possibility of a relief rally, which is expected to face selling at the 20-day EMA ($2,833).
A shallow bounce off the current level or a sharp reversal from the 20-day EMA suggests that the advantage remains with the bears. If the $2,111 support cracks, the Ether price may descend to $1,750. The bulls will be back in the game after the ETH/USDT pair rises above the moving averages.
BNB price prediction
BNB (BNB) plummeted below the uptrend line and the $790 support on Saturday, indicating aggressive selling by the bears.
The bulls are attempting to protect the $730 support, but the relief rally is expected to face selling at the breakdown level of $790. If the BNB price turns down sharply from $790, it signals that the bears have flipped the level into resistance. That increases the prospects of a drop to $700.
Instead, if the price closes above $790, it suggests that the lower levels are attracting buyers. The BNB/USDT pair may then rally to the moving averages, where the bulls are expected to encounter solid selling by the bears.
XRP price prediction
XRP (XRP) is witnessing a tough battle between the buyers and sellers at the crucial $1.61 support.
A shallow bounce increases the likelihood of a drop to the support line of the descending channel pattern. Buyers are expected to defend the support line, as a break below it might sink the XRP/USDT pair to the Oct. 10, 2025, low of $1.25.
The moving averages are the critical resistance to watch out for on the upside. A close above the moving averages suggests that the XRP price may remain inside the channel for a few more days.
Solana price prediction
Solana (SOL) collapsed below the $117 level on Saturday and reached the critical support at $95.
The bulls have successfully defended the $95 level, but the failure to start a strong bounce suggests that the bears continue to exert pressure. If the $95 support gives way, the SOL/USDT pair may start the next leg of the downtrend to $79.
Contrarily, if the Solana price rises above $107, the recovery may reach the 20-day EMA ($121). Sellers will attempt to defend the 20-day EMA, but if the bulls prevail, the pair may march toward the $147 resistance.
The bulls have started a relief rally, which is expected to face selling at the 20-day EMA ($0.12). If the Dogecoin price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, the risk of a break below the $0.10 level increases. The DOGE/USDT pair may then nosedive to $0.08.
Alternatively, if buyers pierce the 20-day EMA, it suggests that the market has rejected the break below the $0.10 level. The pair will then attempt a rally to the solid overhead resistance at $0.16.
Cardano price prediction
Cardano (ADA) fell below the Oct. 10, 2025, low of $0.27 on Saturday, signaling that the bears remain in charge.
The Cardano price has bounced off the support line but is expected to face selling at the 20-day EMA ($0.34). If the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, the bears will again try to yank the ADA/USDT pair below the support line. If they succeed, the downtrend may extend to $0.20.
The bulls will have to catapult the price above the downtrend line to suggest that the downtrend may be ending. The pair may then ascend to the breakdown level of $0.50.
Bitcoin Cash price prediction
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) fell toward its pattern target of $456 on Saturday, where the buyers stepped in.
The bulls have started a relief rally, which is expected to face resistance in the zone between the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $535 and the 61.8% retracement level of $551. If the Bitcoin Cash price turns down from the resistance zone, the bears will attempt to pull the BCH/USDT pair below $500.
On the contrary, if buyers propel the price above $551, the pair may reach the 20-day EMA ($571). A close above the 20-day EMA signals that the bulls are back in the game.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
India’s e-rupee has evolved from a domestic digital payment experiment into a strategic instrument aimed at influencing cross-border trade, remittances and tourism flows.
The e-rupee represents sovereign digital money, enabling direct and final settlement without relying on multiple intermediaries for international payments.
India views cross-border CBDC use as a way to address long-standing inefficiencies in global payments, including high costs and slow settlement times.
Proposals to link the e-rupee with other countries’ CBDCs reflect India’s effort to simplify trade and tourism settlements using sovereign digital currencies.
India’s e-rupee is no longer just a tech experiment; it has become an important part of the country’s financial plans. With emerging proposals to take it beyond India’s borders, the e-rupee is now positioned as a critical tool for streamlining international trade, remittances and tourism. It is also increasingly discussed in the context of India’s geopolitical strategy.
This article explores what the e-rupee is and how India plans to use it to address cross-border challenges. It examines the strategic objectives behind the move, how such transactions could function and what a successful implementation may entail.
What is the e-rupee?
The e-rupee is India’s central bank digital currency (CBDC), a digital form of the Indian rupee issued by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on par with physical cash. It functions like digital cash stored in a wallet, with the RBI acting as the guarantor of its value. The RBI is currently running pilot programs for both retail (public use) and wholesale (institutional use) versions to test the technology, distribution and practical applications.
Unlike India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI), which facilitates real-time transfers between bank accounts, the e-rupee represents sovereign digital money itself. This allows for direct, instantaneous and final settlement without relying on multiple intermediaries.
Did you know? The idea of cross-border CBDCs gained momentum after central banks realized that even instant domestic payments can take days to settle internationally because of legacy correspondent banking layers.
The cross-border challenges India aims to address
Current international payments depend heavily on correspondent banking networks and systems tied to the US dollar. These often involve delays, high costs, limited transparency and dependence on intermediary banks. Such inefficiencies affect businesses, remittance senders and travelers.
India views the e-rupee as a potential solution by enabling a digital, interoperable infrastructure for cross-border settlements.
Recent policy discussions have increasingly focused on international applications beyond domestic use. The RBI has proposed linking the e-rupee with other countries’ CBDCs, particularly those of BRICS nations, to streamline cross-border trade and tourism transactions.
Four strategic motivations behind India’s global e-rupee push
A blend of economic, financial and strategic priorities drives India’s interest in taking the e-rupee beyond domestic borders. These objectives reflect how New Delhi aims to modernize cross-border payments while strengthening the rupee’s role in global transactions.
Reducing costs and improving speed for remittances and payments: India is one of the world’s top recipients of remittances, and many Indians travel or work abroad. Traditional cross-border transfers involve multiple banks and foreign exchange conversions, increasing both time and cost. A direct e-rupee corridor or interoperability with other CBDCs could reduce intermediaries, enabling faster and lower-cost transfers that benefit migrant workers, families and small businesses.
Simplifying trade and tourism settlements: Proposals to connect CBDCs among BRICS countries aim to ease payments for trade and tourism by allowing direct settlement in sovereign digital currencies. This would reduce the need for dollar-based conversions or complex intermediary processes, which is especially relevant given growing trade volumes within BRICS.
Promoting the internationalization of the rupee: India has long sought to expand the rupee’s use in global trade settlements and financial flows without framing the effort as de-dollarization. Linking the e-rupee with other CBDCs could enhance its efficiency and international appeal, particularly in Asia and among BRICS partners.
Providing a regulated alternative to private stablecoins: While US dollar-pegged stablecoins and other private digital assets are seeing wider global adoption, the RBI has warned that they carry monetary and systemic risks due to limited oversight and lack of sovereign backing. A CBDC-based cross-border system offers a regulated alternative that reduces the risk of financial fragmentation.
Did you know? In early global CBDC pilots, banks reported that real-time cross-border settlement reduced the need for large pre-funded nostro accounts, freeing up idle capital for lending or liquidity management.
How cross-border e-rupee transactions could work
Experts and policymakers have outlined several practical approaches to enable seamless cross-border use of the e-rupee:
Bilateral CBDC corridors: Central banks from two countries establish direct agreements for e-rupee settlement, including foreign exchange conversion mechanisms and aligned regulatory standards.
Multilateral platforms: A shared technical infrastructure connects CBDCs from multiple countries, modeled on initiatives such as the multi-CBDC Bridge, to promote broader interoperability.
Linking domestic payment systems with CBDC settlement: India has seen success in connecting UPI with select foreign payment networks. This approach integrates interoperable payment rails, with the e-rupee serving as the underlying settlement asset.
Barriers to global CBDC interoperability
Cross-border CBDC integration remains complex. Countries must harmonize technology standards, governance frameworks, compliance requirements, including Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (CFT) rules, and mechanisms for dispute resolution. A persistent challenge is managing settlement imbalances, where one country accumulates excess holdings of another’s digital currency without corresponding outflows.
Geopolitical factors also play a role, as such initiatives could prompt responses from dominant currency issuers or key trade partners. Navigating these efforts requires careful consideration of broader strategic dynamics.
Did you know? Several countries exploring CBDC linkages see tourism as a surprisingly strong use case, as visitors could pay digitally in sovereign money without opening local bank accounts or converting cash.
Key outcomes and milestones for the global e-rupee
For India, taking the e-rupee beyond its borders would mean delivering measurable outcomes. These include lower transaction costs and faster settlement times for cross-border payments, wider international use of the rupee in trade and tourism, and successful operational pilots that enable banks and fintech firms to conduct borderless transactions using the e-rupee.
Key milestones could include launching pilot corridors with strategic partners, strengthening regulatory frameworks and securing broader participation from financial institutions.
Positioning India in the future of money
India’s efforts to extend the e-rupee internationally reflect a broader strategic vision. The policy aims to modernize cross-border payments, safeguard financial system resilience and expand the rupee’s global footprint within a digital, regulated environment.
Whether achieved through bilateral linkages, multilateral platforms or enhanced interoperable systems, the e-rupee could alter how international money flows are structured over time. Realizing this potential, however, will require policymakers to address the underlying technical, regulatory and geopolitical complexities effectively.
Cosmos (ATOM) trades at $1.98 with RSI at 34.79 signaling oversold conditions. Technical analysis suggests potential recovery to $2.29 resistance within 4-6 weeks.
Cosmos (ATOM) is currently trading at $1.98, showing a modest 1.65% gain over the past 24 hours despite broader technical challenges. With the RSI indicating oversold conditions and the token trading near its lower Bollinger Band, this ATOM price prediction examines whether the interchain protocol is positioned for a technical rebound.
While specific analyst predictions are limited for the recent period, on-chain metrics suggest Cosmos is experiencing a technical consolidation phase. According to current market data, ATOM has maintained relatively stable trading volume at $4.08 million on Binance spot markets, indicating sustained interest despite price pressure.
The lack of recent KOL commentary may actually be a contrarian indicator, as oversold conditions often precede technical rebounds when market attention is elsewhere.
ATOM Technical Analysis Breakdown
The current technical setup for Cosmos presents a mixed but potentially constructive picture. The RSI reading of 34.79 places ATOM in neutral territory but approaching oversold conditions, which historically has marked potential reversal zones for the token.
The MACD configuration shows bearish momentum with both the MACD line and signal line at -0.0926, while the histogram sits at precisely zero, suggesting momentum may be stabilizing. This technical divergence often precedes trend changes.
Most notably, ATOM’s Bollinger Band position at 0.0889 indicates the token is trading very close to the lower band support at $1.91. The middle band (20-day SMA) sits at $2.29, representing a potential 15.7% upside target from current levels.
Key moving averages paint a clearer picture of the challenge ahead. While shorter-term averages like the 7-day SMA ($2.08) and EMA 12 ($2.14) remain above current price, the 200-day SMA at $3.35 highlights the significant distance ATOM needs to recover to reach longer-term trend levels.
Cosmos Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
The primary upside target for this Cosmos forecast centers on the immediate resistance at $2.01, followed by the strong resistance level at $2.05. A break above these levels would likely target the 20-day SMA at $2.29, representing the key recovery level.
If bullish momentum accelerates, the upper Bollinger Band at $2.67 becomes the next logical target, offering approximately 35% upside from current levels. Technical confirmation would require sustained trading above $2.05 with increasing volume.
The 7-day SMA at $2.08 and EMA 12 at $2.14 would need to be reclaimed to validate any bullish thesis, as these represent the first major moving average hurdles.
Bearish Scenario
Downside risks focus on the immediate support at $1.90, which aligns closely with the lower Bollinger Band. A break below this level would likely target the strong support zone at $1.83, representing approximately 7.6% downside risk.
Further deterioration could see ATOM testing psychological support around $1.50, though this would require a broader crypto market selloff to materialize. The key risk factor remains the significant gap between current price and the 200-day SMA, indicating the longer-term trend remains challenged.
Should You Buy ATOM? Entry Strategy
Based on current technical conditions, a scaled entry approach appears most prudent for this ATOM price prediction. Initial positions could be considered around current levels ($1.98) with additional accumulation planned near the $1.90 support level.
A stop-loss below $1.83 would limit downside risk to approximately 9%, while the initial target at $2.29 offers a favorable risk-reward ratio of nearly 2:1.
Risk management should include position sizing appropriate for the current volatility, with the daily ATR of $0.14 suggesting typical daily moves of 7% in either direction.
Conclusion
This Cosmos forecast suggests ATOM is approaching technically oversold conditions that could support a near-term recovery. The combination of RSI approaching oversold levels, trading near lower Bollinger Band support, and stabilizing MACD momentum creates conditions that have historically preceded rebounds.
However, the distance from key moving averages and the broader technical picture suggest any recovery may be limited to the $2.29-$2.67 range initially. A break above $2.29 with volume would significantly improve the technical outlook for the coming months.
This ATOM price prediction is based on technical analysis and historical patterns. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
US President Donald Trump has nominated former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh to lead the US central bank, a move that has sent mixed signals for cryptocurrency markets and US dollar liquidity, according to market analysts.
Trump nominated Bitcoin-friendly Warsh on Friday, and he is set to replace Jerome Powell when his term ends in May, assuming the Senate approves him.
Warsh’s nomination could mean the Fed will continue its interest rate cut trajectory. But according to Thomas Perfumo, a global economist at cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, it also signals that broader market liquidity is expected to “stabilize rather than meaningfully expand.”
He told Cointelegraph:
“This sustains the mixed macro backdrop for Bitcoin and crypto, which are sensitive to overall liquidity conditions, perhaps moreso than changes to the Fed Funds Rate.”
However, investors may be disappointed with Warsh’s “skeptical posture on balance sheet expansion,” explained Perfumo, which includes measures like quantitative easing — a shift that involves bond-buying to lower borrowing costs and stimulate economic activity.
Crypto market liquidations in the past 24 hours. Source: CoinGlass
The comments come shortly after cryptocurrency markets lost $250 billion in market capitalization over the weekend, as part of a wider sell-off impacting stock markets and precious metals.
Popular analyst Raoul Pal pointed to the US liquidity drought as the main reason behind the crypto and equities crash, rather than crypto-specific events, Cointelegraph reported earlier on Monday.
Market crash caused by Warsh nomination, liquidity concerns: Puckrin
Warsh’s nomination ignited liquidity concerns among investors, becoming the main reason for the crash in crypto, stocks and precious metals, according to Nic Puckrin, investment analyst and co-founder of educational platform Coin Bureau.
“Markets are digesting Warsh’s views on future Fed policy – most notably the central bank’s balance sheet, which he says is ‘trillions larger’ than it needs to be,” the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:
“If he does indeed adopt policies to shrink the balance sheet, markets will have to reckon with a lower-liquidity environment – a backdrop that isn’t supportive of either risk assets or precious metals.”
Still, questions remain on Warsh’s interest rate policy and how much he is “willing to align himself” with Trump’s push for lower interest rates, said Puckrin.
Interest rate cut expectations. Source: CMEgroup
Interest rate expectations have remained largely unchanged since Warsh’s nomination, with 85% of market participants expecting rates to remain steady at the next meeting on March 18, according to data from the CMEGroup’s FedWatch tool.
Interest rate policy expectations also remain stable for the June 17 meeting, with 49% expecting a 25 basis-point interest rate cut, up from 46% the week prior. This would mark the date of the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting after Powell’s term ends in May.
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
South Korea’s financial watchdog has expanded the use of artificial intelligence to monitor digital asset markets, signaling a shift toward automated, data-driven enforcement as trading activity grows more complex.
On Monday, the country’s Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) said it has upgraded its Virtual Assets Intelligence System for Trading Analysis (VISTA), a model used to investigate unfair crypto trading.
An automated detection algorithm has been added, the FSS said, which can spot potential price-manipulation periods without manual intervention.
From manual analysis to systemized oversight
The FSS said the new algorithm uses a sliding-window grid search technique to examine every possible sub-period within a trading dataset. This approach is meant to enable exhaustive analysis of potential manipulation windows that investigators previously had to identify manually.
The watchdog said that performance tests on completed investigation cases showed that the system detected all previously identified manipulation periods, while also flagging additional suspicious intervals that were difficult to spot with traditional analysis.
The FSS also said it secured a 170 million won ($116,000) budget for 2026 for further AI performance upgrades, with additional capabilities to be rolled out in different stages through the end of 2026.
Planned upgrades include tools to automatically identify networks of coordinated trading accounts, analyze abnormal trading-related text across thousands of crypto assets and trace the origin of funds used in manipulation.
South Korea weighs pre-emptive freezes for suspected manipulation
The AI surveillance system upgrade aligns with the regulator’s aim to enhance enforcement capabilities in the crypto space.
On Jan. 6, local outlet Newsis reported that the FSC was considering a payment suspension system that would block transactions before suspects can launder ill-gotten gains.
The country’s crypto surveillance push also comes alongside broader efforts to expand AI-based monitoring across South Korea’s capital markets.
On Monday, the Financial Services Commission (FSC) announced that the Korea Exchange will begin operating an AI-driven market monitoring system to strengthen early detection of stock price manipulation.
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
XRP is below the average buy price of the past year, putting many holders in the red and increasing downside risk in the near term.
XRP (XRP) mirrored a 50% crash scenario from 2022 as it underwent its sharpest weekly selloff since October 2025.
Key takeaways:
New XRP buyers are in the red
As of Monday, XRP was trading around $1.60, down more than 20% over the past week and sitting well below the cost basis of buyers from the last 12 months.
XRP realized price by age. Source: Glassnode
It is now just above its aggregated realized price near $1.48, which tracks the average cost basis of all XRP in circulation. It means that a large share of XRP’s recent buyers are underwater.
A decisive break below $1.48 would mean the average holder will be underwater, a setup that closely matches the 2022 bear phase that ultimately ended in a 50% drawdown to about $0.30.
Additionally, XRP’s 90-day whale flow remains net negative, with large holders distributing rather than accumulating, data from CryptoQuant shows.
Fewer stablecoins on exchanges reduces buying pressure, making it harder for XRP to rise above the realized price.
XRP price risks crashing by another 50%
Price charts show that XRP has held above its 100-2W exponential moving average (100-2W EMA; the purple line) at around $1.43, close to the aggregated realized price of $1.48.
XRP/USD two-week chart. Source: TradingView
But while XRP could still slip into the $1.43–$1.48 support band in February, its two-week relative strength index (RSI) near 38 has historically preceded reversals.
XRP/USD two-week chart. Source: TradingView
In any case, XRP may spend weeks finding its footing before attempting a stronger recovery by late Q1 or Q2 2026 if the RSI holds around 38 as it has throughout history.
Conversely, a decisive breakdown below XRP’s 100-2W EMA will likely invalidate the potential recovery scenario.
In that case, XRP risks sliding toward its 200-2W EMA (the blue line) near $1 as early as March, echoing the kind of breakdown that followed similar support losses in 2022.
A drop to $1 would put XRP about 36% below current levels.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Update (Feb. 2, 12:20 am UTC): This article has been updated to add a post by CrossCurve CEO Boris Povar.
Crypto protocol CrossCurve said its cross-chain bridge has been attacked, with $3 million reportedly exploited across multiple networks.
CrossCurve posted to X late on Sunday that its bridge was “under attack, involving the exploitation of a vulnerability in one of the smart contracts used.”
“Please pause all interactions with CrossCurve while the investigation is ongoing,” it added.
Defimon Alerts, an X account linked to the blockchain security company Decurity, reported that CrossCurve was exploited for around $3 million “on several networks.”
It added that one of CrossCurve’s smart contracts allowed anyone to spoof a message to bypass validation and unlock tokens.
“Anyone could call expressExecute on ReceiverAxelar contract with a spoofed cross-chain message, bypassing gateway validation and triggering unlock on PortalV2,” Defimon Alerts said.
Curve Finance, which has partnered with CrossCurve, posted on X that users who allocated to CrossCurve pools “may wish to review their positions and consider removing those votes.”
“We continue to encourage all participants to remain vigilant and make risk-aware decisions when interacting with third-party projects,” it added.
CrossCurve offers 10% bounty if funds returned in 72 hours
In an attempt to contact the attacker, CrossCurve CEO Boris Povar shared 10 addresses he said had received tokens from the exploit and offered a reward for their return within 72 hours.
“These tokens were wrongfully taken from users due to a smart contract exploit. We do not believe this was intentional on your part, and there is no indication of malicious intent,” he said. “We hope for your cooperation in returning the funds.”
Povar offered up to a 10% bounty if the funds were returned within 72 hours of the attack.
“If the funds are not returned or no contact is established within 72 hours, we will have to assume there is malicious intent and treat this as a judicial matter,” he added.
Povar said CrossCurve was prepared to work with law enforcement, file civil lawsuits to recover damages, and coordinate with authorities and other crypto projects to freeze assets if the funds were not returned.
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MATIC shows bearish momentum at $0.38 with RSI at 38. Technical analysis suggests potential recovery to $0.45-$0.52 range within 4-6 weeks if key resistance breaks.
While specific analyst predictions from major crypto KOLs are limited in recent days, available market analysis provides some insight into MATIC’s trajectory. According to Felix Pinkston’s January 6th assessment, “MATIC price prediction targets $0.45-$0.52 recovery within 4-6 weeks, contingent on breaking key $0.58 resistance.”
This Polygon forecast aligns with technical resistance levels identified through on-chain data analysis. According to current market metrics, MATIC remains in a consolidation phase below key moving averages, suggesting cautious optimism among market participants.
MATIC Technical Analysis Breakdown
Polygon’s current technical picture presents a mixed but potentially recovering scenario. At $0.38, MATIC is trading significantly below its key moving averages, with the 20-day SMA at $0.43 and the 50-day SMA at $0.45 acting as immediate resistance levels.
The RSI reading of 38.00 places MATIC in neutral territory, avoiding oversold conditions that could trigger panic selling. However, the MACD histogram at -0.0000 indicates bearish momentum is still present, though weakening.
Polygon’s position within the Bollinger Bands is particularly telling. With a %B position of 0.29, MATIC is trading in the lower portion of the bands but hasn’t touched the lower band at $0.31, suggesting some underlying support remains intact. The middle band at $0.43 represents the first major hurdle for any recovery attempt.
The Stochastic oscillator shows %K at 25.19 and %D at 20.15, indicating MATIC may be approaching oversold territory where buying interest could emerge.
Polygon Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
If MATIC can reclaim the 20-day SMA at $0.43, the path opens toward the 50-day SMA at $0.45. A successful break above this level could trigger the recovery scenario outlined in recent analysis, targeting the $0.45-$0.52 range.
The ultimate bullish target sits at the Upper Bollinger Band near $0.56, which coincides with the resistance level mentioned in analyst predictions. For this MATIC price prediction to materialize, Polygon would need to see increased trading volume above the current $1.07 million daily average and positive momentum confirmation through MACD crossover.
Bearish Scenario
Failure to hold current levels could see MATIC test the Lower Bollinger Band at $0.31. This represents approximately 18% downside risk from current prices. A break below this critical support level could trigger further selling pressure, potentially targeting the psychological $0.30 level.
The bearish case is reinforced by MATIC trading below all major moving averages, with the 200-day SMA at $0.69 showing the longer-term downtrend remains intact.
Should You Buy MATIC? Entry Strategy
Current technical conditions suggest a cautious approach to MATIC accumulation. The optimal entry strategy involves:
Risk management remains crucial given the bearish MACD momentum. Position sizing should account for the potential 20% downside to the $0.31 support level.
For more aggressive traders, a breakout strategy above $0.43 with volume confirmation could offer better risk-reward ratios, though this requires waiting for technical confirmation.
Conclusion
This MATIC price prediction suggests cautious optimism for Polygon’s recovery potential over the next 4-6 weeks. While current momentum remains bearish, the technical setup doesn’t indicate severe oversold conditions, leaving room for the projected $0.45-$0.52 Polygon forecast to materialize.
The key catalyst will be MATIC’s ability to reclaim the $0.43 resistance level with sustained volume. Until this occurs, traders should expect continued consolidation around current levels.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are inherently speculative and subject to high volatility. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and risk assessment before making investment decisions.
