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    A16z Backs CFTC in Fight Against State Prediction Market Bans

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    A16z has thrown its weight behind the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in a growing federal-state standoff over prediction markets, opposing state regulators that try to shut down platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.

    The venture capital heavyweight submitted the letter on Thursday in response to the CFTC’s advance notice of proposed rulemaking on prediction markets. It argues that state-level crackdowns, ranging from cease-and-desist letters to criminal charges, are creating barriers that undermine the federal agency’s mandate to provide “impartial access to its markets and services.”

    In recent weeks alone, the CFTC has filed lawsuits against Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, New York and Wisconsin, claiming that those states overstepped by trying to regulate markets that fall under federal jurisdiction. A16z backed that position, arguing that forcing exchanges to block users based on their state of residence directly conflicts with the CFTC’s impartial access rules.

    “Being forced to deny impartial access to users in states that seek to license or prohibit certain event contracts will likely severely circumscribe available liquidity,” the firm wrote.

    Related: Prediction market battle gets closer to Supreme Court

    CFTC gets to define gaming: A16z

    State attorneys general have countered that platforms offering contracts on sports outcomes and political events are running unlicensed gambling operations. A16z pushed back on that framing, arguing that the CFTC, not state legislatures, holds the authority to define what constitutes “gaming” under federal commodities law, given the agency’s decades of oversight over event contracts.

    Beyond the jurisdictional fight, a16z also made a case for the social value of prediction markets, describing their pricing mechanisms as a distinct form of price discovery that surfaces crowd intelligence on uncertain outcomes. The firm also showed support for blockchain-based platforms, claiming that the onchain auditability of transactions makes regulatory oversight more effective.

    Kalshi and Polymarket trading volume. Source: Token Terminal

    The letter arrives amid the growing popularity of these platforms. As Cointelegraph reported, monthly trading volume reached $25.7 billion in March, with more than 80% of users classified as retail, defined as those trading less than $10,000.

    Related: Kalshi, Polymarket among 27 prediction platforms banned in Brazil

    Polymarket wants back into the US

    Polymarket is in talks with the CFTC to lift the ban that has kept American users off its main platform since a 2022 settlement, in which the company paid a $1.4 million penalty and agreed to block US customers over unregistered event contracts.

    A full return would require a formal commission vote, though the process may move faster given that four of the CFTC’s commissioner seats are currently vacant.

    Magazine: How to fix suspected insider trading on Polymarket and Kalshi

    Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

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    Riot Posts $167M in Q1 Revenue as Data Center Arm Pulls in $33M

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    Riot Platforms posted $167.2 million in revenue for the first quarter of 2026, with its newly launched data center business contributing $33.2 million.

    The data center revenue helped offset a decline in Riot’s core Bitcoin mining business, which fell to $111.9 million from $142.9 million in Q1 2025, driven by lower average Bitcoin prices and a 24% rise in the global network hash rate. Riot produced 1,473 Bitcoin during the quarter, down from 1,530 a year earlier, while the average cost to mine one coin increased to $44,629 from $43,808, according to an announcement.

    “The first quarter of 2026 marks a definitive inflection point for Riot, as we officially transitioned into an active, revenue-generating data center operator,” CEO Jason Les said, adding that AMD’s decision to double its contracted capacity to 50 megawatts during the quarter validated the company’s ability to execute at institutional scale.

    AMD had initially contracted 25 megawatts before exercising an option to expand, bringing total contracted capacity to 50 megawatts of critical IT infrastructure.

    Related: CoreWeave shows how crypto-era infrastructure quietly became AI’s backbone

    Riot holds $1.1 billion in Bitcoin

    Riot ended the quarter holding 15,679 Bitcoin, valued at roughly $1.1 billion based on a March 31 price of $68,222, with 5,802 coins held as collateral. The company maintained $282.5 million in cash, of which $76.9 million is restricted. Riot also said it sold more than $250 million worth of Bitcoin during the quarter.

    Meanwhile, engineering revenue, which covers infrastructure services, rose to $22.2 million from $13.9 million year-over-year, adding another layer of diversification to the company’s revenue mix.

    Riot’s stock closed up 7.31% at $18.50 on Friday, surging on the earnings release. The stock slipped 0.57% in after-hours trading to $18.40.

    Riot shares surge on earnings news. Source: Yahoo! Finance

    Related: Bitcoin Miner Bitdeer Liquidates Entire BTC Treasury, Holdings Fall to Zero

    Bitcoin miners shift to AI

    Bitcoin miners are increasingly shifting toward AI infrastructure as tightening mining margins push the industry to seek more stable revenue streams. As Cointelegraph reported, Core Scientific is converting its Pecos, Texas site into a 1.5-gigawatt AI-focused data center campus, repurposing 300 megawatts of Bitcoin mining capacity and acquiring over 200 acres of land to support the buildout.

    Among other miners, MARA Holdings has acquired a majority stake in French AI infrastructure firm Exaion, while Hive, Hut 8, TeraWulf and Iren are also converting mining facilities into data centers.

    Magazine: Bitcoin will not hit $1M by 2030, says veteran trader Peter Brandt

    Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

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    AAVE Price Prediction: $80 Breakdown Imminent Before December Recovery to $120

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    Peter Zhang
    May 02, 2026 08:52

    AAVE’s technical structure is cracking at $92 with bearish momentum accelerating toward $80 support. The setup demands a swift breakdown before any legitimate recovery can target $120 by year-end.





    AAVE’s Critical Juncture

    AAVE sits at $92.12 in a deteriorating technical position that’s about to resolve violently. The token has rejected every attempt to reclaim meaningful resistance while bears systematically dismantled support levels. This isn’t consolidation – it’s controlled demolition ahead of a capitulation move.

    The price action shows classic distribution patterns where smart money exits into retail strength. AAVE’s position deep in the lower Bollinger Band territory signals oversold conditions, but oversold can become more oversold in bear markets. The momentum indicators paint a picture of sellers in complete control, with buying interest evaporating at current levels.

    Market Structure Breakdown

    Derivatives positioning reveals the harsh reality facing AAVE bulls. While large traders maintain 60% long exposure, the aggressive selling pressure shown in the taker ratios demonstrates institutional distribution. These aren’t conviction longs – they’re trapped positions hoping for relief rallies that aren’t coming.

    The futures market structure shows declining open interest alongside price weakness, indicating position closures rather than fresh shorting. This typically precedes acceleration moves as remaining weak hands get flushed out. Spot volumes remain anemic, suggesting retail has already capitulated while institutions continue methodical selling.

    The Path Forward

    AAVE faces an unavoidable test of $80 support within the next two weeks. The technical damage is too severe for sideways grinding – this market needs a flush to clear the deck. Analysts at Blockchain.news recognize that sustainable rallies require proper basing processes, not false hope bounces.

    Once AAVE completes its capitulation move toward $80, the real accumulation phase can begin. The DeFi narrative remains intact long-term, but short-term price action must respect market structure. December presents the optimal window for recovery once selling exhaustion sets in.

    Target the $80 breakdown as your entry signal rather than trying to catch falling knives at current levels. The subsequent recovery should target $120 by December if broader crypto markets cooperate with seasonal patterns. Risk management remains paramount – this market punishes premature positioning.

    Blockchain.news Crypto Market

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    LDO Price Prediction: Relief Rally to $0.44 Before $0.30 Collapse

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    Joerg Hiller
    May 02, 2026 08:49

    LDO shows classic dead cat bounce signals with smart money accumulation against retail shorts. Target $0.44 resistance before inevitable breakdown to $0.30 support.





    Market Context: Why LDO is Moving Now

    Lido DAO trades in a textbook distribution phase after getting crushed from $0.52 highs. The sideways grind around $0.37 reflects broader DeFi weakness, but liquid staking demand keeps institutional money flowing despite retail capitulation. Bulls and bears remain deadlocked in a battle that will resolve violently.

    The 1.06% daily pump is meaningless noise within this larger consolidation. LDO sits 29% below its 200-day moving average – a breach this severe rarely reverses on first attempts. Analysts at Blockchain.news expect multiple false breakouts before any sustainable recovery begins.

    Indicator Alignment

    RSI at 50.97 shows zero momentum in either direction while MACD sits dead flat at the zero line. This neutral reading masks dangerous compression building beneath the surface. Bollinger Bands position LDO at 0.39 – low enough to suggest selling exhaustion but not oversold enough to guarantee a bounce.

    The daily ATR of $0.03 reveals volatility has compressed to critical levels. When price action gets this quiet, explosive moves follow. The question isn’t if LDO breaks out, but which direction it chooses.

    Whales & Analyst Targets

    Derivatives data exposes the real positioning behind LDO’s sideways action. Retail traders pile into shorts with a 0.68 long/short ratio while smart money maintains near-balanced 0.89 exposure. This divergence creates perfect conditions for a squeeze in either direction.

    The 1.57 taker buy/sell ratio confirms institutional accumulation despite bearish sentiment. Open interest dropped 5.91% as weak hands exit positions, reducing the float available for trading. With $13.1 million still committed, any catalyst triggers violent price swings.

    Strategic Positioning

    LDO faces immediate resistance at the $0.39 seven-day moving average, but the real battle happens at $0.44 upper Bollinger resistance. A break above this level opens the door to $0.52 previous highs, though rejection remains the higher-probability outcome.

    The bear case targets $0.33 lower Bollinger support initially, then breakdown toward $0.30 psychological support. Macro DeFi headwinds combined with LDO’s broken technical structure make this the primary scenario over the next month.

    Bulls need sustained volume above $0.39 to shift the narrative. Without it, expect a classic relief rally to $0.44 that traps late longs before the real selloff toward $0.30 begins.

    Blockchain.news Crypto Market

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    Bitcoin Doesn’t Need A Fresh Narrative To Reclaim $100K: Analyst

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    Bitcoin may not need a new story or catalyst to push back above the psychological $100,000 level, which it has not traded above in nearly five months, according to MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe.

    ‘“There doesn’t need to be a narrative that pushes the price upwards,” van de Poppe said in an X post on Friday, after asking, “What narrative will bring Bitcoin to $100K?”

    “Price moves upwards, and the narrative will create itself,” van de Poppe said, adding:

    “That’s why simply using math, statistics, and logic is required in order to succeed, and that’s why these regions on Bitcoin are still good for accumulation.”

    Van de Poppe pointed out that attention has rotated elsewhere in the technology industry, with AI and other sectors “taking the spotlight” away from Bitcoin in recent months. At the time of market close on Friday, the stock price of Nvidia (NVDA), the largest AI stock by market capitalization, is up 5.08% since Jan. 1, while Bitcoin (BTC) is down around 10% over the same period.

    Bitcoin hasn’t traded above $100,000 in almost five months

    The last time Bitcoin traded at $100,000 was Nov. 13, just a month after the Oct. 10 $19 billion crypto market liquidation event, which many market participants attributed to the recent five-month downtrend. Bitcoin fell to a yearly low of $60,000 in February and has since recovered to $78,250 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap. 

    Bitcoin is up 14.49% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap

    Many crypto market participants still believe that Bitcoin needs a strong narrative to drive its price higher. In recent times, attention has centered on US Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, regulatory developments in the US, and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows as potential catalysts.

    Some also point to the potential passage of the US CLARITY Act, which aims to provide clearer rules for the industry, as a possible driver of Bitcoin’s upside.

    Some say the CLARITY Act will not boost Bitcoin’s price

    Others are not so sure. Veteran trader Peter Brandt told Cointelegraph in December that the CLARITY Act would be a positive step for the industry, but is unlikely to act as a major catalyst for upward movement in Bitcoin’s price.

    Related: Repeated Bitcoin profit taking near $77K suggests rally is losing steam

    “Is it a world-shaking macro development? Nope. Needed for sure, but not something that should redefine value,” Brandt said.

    Coinbase chief legal officer Faryar Shirzad said on Friday that “It’s time” for the CLARITY Act to be finalized after new stablecoin yield provisions were published on Friday.

    Meanwhile, White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt said at the Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas this week that a “big announcement” on US President Donald Trump’s Bitcoin reserve is coming within weeks.

    Magazine: AI-driven hacks could kill DeFi — unless projects act now

    Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

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    DeFi’s Lose-Lose Problem on Freezing Stolen Funds

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    Decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols are stepping in to freeze stolen funds while centralized issuers face criticism for holding back.

    A recent intervention on Arbitrum saw attacker-linked assets frozen after a major exploit, while some stablecoin issuers, including Circle, have faced public backlash for slower or more limited responses in similar situations.

    Connor Howe, CEO and co-founder of cross-chain infrastructure project Enso, said that crypto protocols are not that different from centralized platforms or banks if a small group of people can freeze funds.

    “The differentiation from a bank compliance officer is less than DeFi idealists will ever admit,” Howe told Cointelegraph.

    The debate isn’t the usual kerfuffle between decentralization and centralization, but about who gets to intervene and how quickly they can act. In practice, it can determine whether stolen funds are stopped or slip through.

    Crypto community divided on Arbitrum’s decision to freeze stolen funds. Source: Joe Hall

    The limits of decentralization in DeFi

    To put it simply, the industry is split on whether protocols that call themselves decentralized should be able to freeze funds during exploits.

    Protocols like THORChain said they cannot freeze funds by design, even during exploits. Security researchers have questioned that claim, pointing to past cases where intervention did happen.

    THORChain founder’s defense against the security community. Source: JP Thorbjornsen

    Related: Crypto projects shut down as token models fail under pressure

    Bernardo Bilotta, CEO of stablecoin infrastructure platform Stables, said the function is necessary but must operate within clear constraints.

    “Freeze capabilities need to be narrowly scoped, time-limited and governed by transparent criteria that existed before the breach occurred,” Bilotta told Cointelegraph. “A protocol shouldn’t be making up the rules while the house is on fire.”

    Bilotta characterized choosing “philosophical purity” over user protection as “negligence.”

    The recent $293 million Kelp DAO exploit brought those discussions back into the spotlight as Arbitrum froze some of the stolen funds linked to suspected North Korean hackers. Some in the industry said the decision cut against DeFi’s grain.

    The Ethereum layer-2 network has a 12-member security council with the ability to carry out certain changes to the protocol. In emergency situations, it can do so through nine of the 12 in its multisig wallet.

    Arbitrum security council members are voted on by the network’s decentralized autonomous organization. Source: Arbitrum

    Howe said that transparency in how such security councils operate can still separate DeFi platforms from traditional finance or their centralized counterparts.

    “That’s notably different from a TradFi institution that invokes discretionary powers buried in their terms of service and guarded by their legal team,” Howe said.

    “There should be transparency in every protocol around who holds the keys, and the safeguards in place to prevent them from going rogue. If there’s no clear distinction, then it’s a vague claim of decentralization.”

    Centralized issuers face different constraints

    Centralized stablecoins are among the most-traded cryptocurrencies in the world. Tether’s USDt and Circle’s USDC are the largest, accounting for more than $266 billion in combined market capitalization.

    Both issuers have the ability to freeze their stablecoins, but they approach that function differently.

    While Tether freezes funds more quickly in most security breaches, Circle emphasizes legal process and jurisdiction before intervening, 

    “Let me be clear about something that is frequently misunderstood: when Circle freezes USDC, it is not because we have decided, unilaterally or arbitrarily, that someone’s assets should be taken from them,” Dante Disparte, the company’s head of global policy, wrote in a recent blog post.

    “Our ability to freeze funds is a compliance obligation — exercised only when we are legally compelled by an appropriate authority, through lawful process,” he continued.

    Circle was pushed to explain its stance after the recent $280 million exploit on Solana-based Drift protocol, also attributed to North Korea.

    Circle’s explanation did not cut it for security experts demanding answers. Source: ZachXBT

    Related: Ethereum’s EEZ could pull other blockchains into its orbit

    Bilotta said waiting for formal legal orders in cases with clear, onchain evidence of an exploit is a “failure of responsibility.”

    Who decides what counts as “extreme”

    Large-scale exploits, including those linked to North Korean actors, have pushed the industry into situations most would consider extreme, where hundreds of millions can be drained and laundered in real time.

    Such cases raise the question of who defines what qualifies as “extreme” and when intervention is justified.

    “This is the question the industry has been ducking the longest,” said Wish Wu, CEO of institution-focused layer-1 Pharos.

    “In practice, ‘extreme’ is too often defined after the fact by whoever holds the keys, which is exactly the failure mode decentralization was meant to avoid,” he added.

    Wu said the more credible approach is to define those conditions in advance and encode them into governance, even if that means accepting that some edge cases fall outside those rules.

    “Can a small, identifiable group move user funds before users have a fair chance to exit?” Wu asked.

    “If the answer is yes, then whatever the marketing says, the system is custodial in substance. If the answer is no, only then are we in an honest conversation about which governance and safety tradeoffs make sense for different use cases.”

    Below that line, decentralization loses its substantive meaning, he added.

    Magazine: AI-driven hacks could kill DeFi — unless projects act now

    Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

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    Bitcoin ETFs Post Strong April Inflows as Ether Turns Positive

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    US-listed spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) finished April in the green as Bitcoin rallied throughout the month.

    Bitcoin ETFs drew $1.97 billion in inflows in April, well above March’s $1.37 billion, marking their highest monthly inflows of the year, according to SoSoValue data.

    With inflows in March and April offsetting outflows in January and February, Bitcoin ETFs now show about $1.47 billion in net inflows for 2026. The cumulative net inflows to the products since they launched have topped $58 billion.

    Monthly spot Bitcoin ETF flows in 2026. Source: SoSoValue

    The April inflows came alongside a 12% rise in Bitcoin, its strongest monthly gain since April 2025, when it rose more than 14%, according to CryptoRank.

    April’s data comes ahead of the 13F filing season in May, when major financial institutions will disclose their holdings in crypto ETFs for the first quarter of 2026.

    ETFs post $490 million in late-month outflows

    Late-month redemptions were not enough to offset April’s inflows. The ETFs saw around $490 million in outflows during three days in late April.

    BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) was the dominant driver of gains in April, bringing around $2 billion in net inflows. On the other hand, Grayscale Investments’ Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) was the biggest loser, with net outflows totaling around $280 million.

    Daily spot Bitcoin ETF flows by issuer since April 27, 2026. Source: Farside

    The Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust ETF (MSBT), which began trading on April 8, generated around $194 million in inflows, with no single day of outflows over the month.

    The first month of gains for Ether ETFs since October 2025

    April’s positive trend extended to some altcoin ETFs, with Ether (ETH) funds logging their first monthly inflow since October 2025, at $356 million versus about $570 million in October 2025.

    Still, Ether ETFs remain in negative territory after four months of 2026, with about $413 million in net outflows year to date, according to SoSoValue. The cumulative net inflows since launch stood at about $11.9 billion.

    Monthly spot Ether ETF flows since October 2025. Source: SoSoValue

    XRP funds also surged in April, logging their strongest month since December 2025 with $81.6 million of inflows. The ETFs saw about $124 million in net inflows across the first four months of 2026, while total cumulative inflows stand at around $1.3 billion.

    Related: Bitcoin risks extended retreat as April rally was futures-driven: CryptoQuant

    Dogecoin (DOGE) ETFs rallied in April as well, logging $2 million of inflows, accounting for roughly 21% of total cumulative inflows of about $9.6 million.

    Meanwhile, Solana (SOL) ETFs saw $38.7 million in April inflows, the smallest monthly total on record, compared with cumulative inflows of about $1 billion.

    Magazine: Your guide to surviving this mini-crypto winter

    Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

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    Brazil Central Bank Bars Virtual Assets From eFX Payments

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    Brazil’s central bank, Banco Central do Brasil (BCB), has barred the use of virtual assets in certain regulated international payment and transfer services, tightening rules for cross-border payment providers operating under the country’s eFX framework.

    On Thursday, BCB published Resolution BCB No. 561, amending existing rules for eFX, a regulated category covering international payments and transfers. The resolution states that payments or receipts between an eFX provider and its foreign counterparty must be carried out exclusively through a foreign exchange transaction or movement in a non-resident Brazilian real account, with the use of virtual assets prohibited.

    The restriction also applies under transitional rules for eFX providers that are not yet listed among approved provider categories. Those firms may continue providing eFX only if they apply for authorization from the central bank by May 31, 2027, but their payments and receipts must still use foreign exchange transactions or non-resident real accounts, not virtual assets. 

    The rule does not amount to a blanket ban on crypto transfers in Brazil. Instead, it closes off the use of crypto and stablecoins inside the regulated eFX channel, reinforcing the central bank’s effort to keep cross-border payment flows within supervised foreign exchange rails.

    English translated excerpt of the BCB Resolution No. 561. Source: BCB 

    Brazil tightens oversight of crypto-linked cross-border flows

    Brazil has been moving to fold virtual assets into its financial and foreign exchange rulebook as stablecoins become a larger part of the country’s crypto activity. 

    In November 2025, the central bank detailed new rules for virtual asset service providers, including authorization requirements and rules for services involving virtual assets in the foreign-exchange market.

    The central bank’s push follows concern over the use of stablecoins for payments and cross-border transfers. In February, Reuters reported that BCB Governor Gabriel Galipolo said that crypto use had surged in the country over the previous two to three years, with about 90% of flows linked to stablecoins. He said that raised concerns around taxation, money laundering and asset backing.

    Related: Spain emerges as leading EURC retail market in Europe, Brighty data shows

    The eFX rule comes as Brazil’s central bank has also signaled concern over stablecoins issued by companies outside its regulatory perimeter. In a technical note sent to Congress and seen by Cointelegraph Brasil, the central bank said stablecoins issued by entities not subject to BCB supervision could face a ban or strict conditions in the domestic market.

    The document said real-denominated stablecoins issued outside BCB supervision may pose risks to regulatory equality and monetary sovereignty, while foreign-currency stablecoins raise concerns around jurisdiction, capital flows and fragmentation of the payments system. 

    Magazine: AI-driven hacks could kill DeFi — unless projects act now

    Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

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    AAVE Price Prediction: $98-105 Recovery Rally Within 14 Days Despite Current Weakness

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    Joerg Hiller
    May 01, 2026 08:50

    AAVE sits oversold at $92.81 with neutral RSI suggesting accumulation zone formation. Smart money positioning 62% long signals potential 6-13% bounce to $98-105 range by mid-May.





    AAVE’s Technical Reality Check

    AAVE’s current positioning screams oversold opportunity rather than continued decline. With RSI sitting at 43.64 in neutral territory and MACD histogram flatlining at zero, the selling pressure that drove price below all major moving averages has clearly exhausted itself. The token trades 38% below its 200-day SMA at $149.59, creating a substantial discount that savvy traders recognize.

    The Bollinger Bands tell the real story here – AAVE’s position at 0.34 indicates we’re much closer to the lower band ($83.06) than the upper band ($111.87), yet still maintaining distance from true capitulation levels. This positioning typically precedes mean reversion moves, especially when daily volatility (ATR) remains elevated at $6.06, providing ample room for swift directional moves.

    Volume & Price Alignment

    The derivatives market reveals institutional conviction that spot prices don’t reflect. While daily volume of $7.3 million appears modest, the futures market shows significantly more conviction with open interest climbing 3.31% to $56.3 million. This expansion during price weakness indicates fresh positioning rather than liquidation-driven selling.

    Most telling is the stark difference between retail and institutional sentiment. Top traders maintain a 1.62 long/short ratio (62% long) while retail traders show more modest 1.26 positioning (56% long). When smart money holds heavier long exposure than retail during weakness, it signals accumulation ahead of the next leg higher. The balanced taker buy/sell ratio of 0.92 suggests neither panic selling nor FOMO buying – exactly the type of equilibrium that precedes breakout moves.

    Expert Outlook Context

    The absence of recent KOL predictions creates an information vacuum that often benefits contrarian positioning. According to analysts at Blockchain.news, such periods of reduced social media attention frequently coincide with institutional accumulation phases. The lack of hype removes emotional premium from pricing while fundamental value propositions remain intact.

    Without external catalysts driving price action, AAVE’s movement depends purely on technical factors and positioning dynamics. This environment typically favors mean reversion trades over momentum strategies, particularly when price sits significantly below key moving averages yet maintains healthy derivatives interest.

    Forward Price Path

    AAVE faces two distinct probability scenarios over the next 14-30 days. The primary path (65% probability) targets the $98-105 range, representing a 6-13% recovery that would reclaim the EMA-26 at $96.97 and approach the SMA-20 at $97.46. This move requires minimal catalyst beyond current oversold conditions and smart money positioning.

    The secondary scenario (35% probability) involves further decline toward the $85-88 range if broader crypto markets deteriorate. However, strong support confluence around $91-92 (current pivot area) makes this less likely given existing institutional long bias.

    Risk/reward heavily favors the upside scenario. Entry around current levels offers 6-13% upside potential against 3-5% downside to strong support. The technical setup, combined with institutional positioning and oversold conditions, creates the type of asymmetric opportunity that defines profitable swing trades in DeFi tokens.

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    Carrot’s TVL Collapses 93% in a Month Following Drift Hack

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    Solana-based decentralized finance yield protocol Carrot said Thursday that it is shutting down permanently, becoming one of the first DeFi protocols to fall due to contagion from the Drift Protocol exploit in early April. 

    In an X post on Thursday, Carrot said the Drift exploit was “catastrophic” for the protocol and had left it financially unable to continue operating. The platform set a May 14 deadline for users to withdraw remaining funds. It said it will continue to help recovery efforts related to Drift and distribute assets once they become available.

    “We are setting May 14th as the deadline to withdraw any remaining funds from Boost, Turbo, and CRT before we will then begin to deleverage the system. Your deposited funds are still yours, but all leverage will be reduced to zero, freeing up all liquidity for CRT redemption,” the protocol’s team said.

    The Drift protocol exploit on April 1 was the second-largest in 2026. It was a highly coordinated attack that involved months of social engineering by a group of hackers who gained admin control and drained more than half the protocol’s total value locked. 

    The contagion spread to several affiliated projects such as the yield protocol Gauntlet, the lending and borrowing platform PrimeFi and the crypto fund Elemental DeFi. 

    Related: Insider trading backlash forces Polymarket to step up surveillance

    Carrot was integrated with Drift’s infrastructure and used its pools to generate yield for its users. Its TVL collapsed after the Drift Protocol hack. 

    According to data from DefiLlama, Carrot’s total value locked was around $28 million before the Drift hack, and is currently $1.99 million, marking a decrease of roughly 93%.

    Carrot’s sharp TVL drop after the Drift hack. Source: DefiLlama

    DefiLlama data also shows nearly $630 million worth of digital assets were stolen in April across 25 incidents, making it the month with the largest losses since February 2025, when $1.47 billion was stolen.

    The $293 million hack on liquid staking protocol Kelp is the largest exploit of 2026 so far. The Drift hack is close behind at $285 million. Together, these two attacks account for more than 90% of all crypto stolen in April.

    Magazine: AI-driven hacks could kill DeFi — unless projects act now

    Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

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