ETH derivatives positioning shows large traders increasing long exposure as sentiment stabilizes despite ongoing weakness in broader risk markets.
Public companies holding sizable ETH reserves continue to trade at discounts, signaling investors still lack conviction in a near-term recovery.
Ether (ETH) faced a sharp 15% drop Wednesday to Friday, falling to $2,625, its lowest level since July. The move wiped out $460 million of leveraged ETH bullish positions in two days and extended the decline to 47% from the Aug. 24 all-time high.
Demand from ETH bulls is still mostly absent in derivatives markets, although sentiment is slowly leaning toward a potential relief bounce to $3,200.
ETH perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: laevitas.ch
The annualized funding rate on ETH perpetual futures settled near 6% on Friday, rising from 4% the previous week. Under balanced conditions, the indicator typically fluctuates 6% to 12% to cover the cost of capital. While still far from a bullish setup, ETH futures showed some resilience even as macroeconomic uncertainty increased.
US consumer and housing data signal rising economic stress
A University of Michigan survey shows that 69% of consumers now expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, more than twice the level from a year ago. Joanne Hsu, the director of the consumer survey, reportedly said: “Cost-of-living concerns and income worries dominate consumer views of the economy across the country.”
During an earnings call on Tuesday, Home Depot CEO Ted Decker said the company continues “to see softer engagement in larger discretionary projects,” mainly due to ongoing weakness in the housing market. Decker said that housing turnover as a share of total available supply has approached a 40-year low, while home prices have begun to adjust, according to Yahoo Finance.
Spot Ethereum ETFs daily net outflows, USD. Source: Farside Investors
Part of Ether traders’ fading confidence stems from nine straight sessions of net outflows in spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Roughly $1.33 billion has exited those products during that stretch, driven in part by institutional investors reducing exposure to risk assets. The US dollar strengthened against major foreign currencies as concerns around the artificial intelligence sector grew.
US Dollar index (DXY). Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph
The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to its highest level in six months as investors sought the safety of cash holdings. It might seem counterintuitive, given the US economy’s heavy ties to the tech sector, but traders are simply holding reserves until there is clearer visibility on employment data and whether consumer demand will recover after the extended US government shutdown.
ETH top traders’ long-to-short positions at OKX. Source: CoinGlass
Top traders at OKX increased their long positions even as Ether fell to $2,700 from $3,200 on Sunday. Confidence is gradually improving following strong quarterly earnings and year-end guidance from Nvidia (NVDA US), and after Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said he sees room for interest rate cuts in the near term as the labor market weakens.
The cryptocurrency bear market has been especially difficult for companies that built large ETH reserves through debt and equity issuance, such as BitMine Immersion (BMNR US) and ShapeLink Gaming (SBET US). Those stocks currently trade at discounts of 16% or more relative to their ETH holdings, highlighting investors’ lack of comfort.
From a derivatives standpoint, whales and market makers are increasingly convinced that $2,650 marked the bottom. Still, bullish conviction likely hinges on renewed spot Ether ETF inflows and clearer signals of a less restrictive monetary policy, meaning Ether’s potential return to $3,200 may take a few weeks.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
XRP (XRP) extended its downtrend on Friday, dropping 3% over the last 24 hours to trade at $1.93. The inability to hold above $2 now puts the altcoin’s recovery possibilities in question, with traders asking how much further it can fall.
The XRP/USD pair has formed a megaphone pattern in the weekly time frame, suggesting that a deeper correction was in store for the altcoin.
A megaphone pattern, also known as a broadening wedge, forms when the price creates a series of higher highs and lower lows. As a technical rule, a breakout below the pattern’s lower boundary may trigger a sharp drop.
Key levels to watch before this target is reached are the 100-week simple moving average (SMA) at $1.60 and the 200-week SMA at $1.05.
The weekly RSI dropped to 39 on Friday, down from extremely overbought levels of 91 in December 2024, suggesting steadily increasing downward momentum over this period.
Meanwhile, XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has moved from euphoria to denial, and now anxiety is creeping in.
XRP’s NUPL vs. price performance chart. Source: Glassnode
With more than 41.5% of XRP holders underwater at current prices, there is a likelihood of increased sell-side pressure as investors count their losses. Such setups in 2018 and 2021 preceded sharp corrections, raising the possibility of similar pullbacks over the next few weeks.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Cryptocurrency markets continued their decline for a fourth consecutive week this week, raising concerns over the status of the bull market cycle.
Investor concerns grew on Thursday after a 10X Research report revealed that BitMine Immersion Technologies, the world’s largest corporate Ether (ETH) holder, is sitting on a cumulative unrealized loss of $3.7 billion on its total holdings.
Most digital asset treasuries (DATs) have suffered declines in their net asset value (NAV), making it difficult to raise funds for new investments or to attract new retail investors, leaving existing shareholders “trapped” with growing paper losses, according to 10x Research founder Markus Thiele
DATs are also facing significant pressure from the MSCI stock market index, which is considering excluding corporate crypto treasuries with a balance sheet comprising more than 50% of crypto assets.
The consultation is open until Dec. 31, with the results set to be made public on Jan. 15, 2026. The resulting changes will take effect in February.
Elsewhere, Bitcoin (BTC) sank to a six-month low of $82,000 on Friday, a level last seen in April when the markets were recovering from US President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement, TradingView data shows.
BitMine sits on $3.7 billion loss as DAT “Hotel California” meets BlackRock’s staked ETH ETF
Concerns are mounting over the sustainability of corporate crypto-treasury firms as BlackRock moves forward with a staked Ether fund that analysts say could compete directly with existing digital-asset treasuries.
BitMine Immersion Technologies, the world’s largest corporate Ether holder, is currently down $1,000 per purchased ETH, implying a cumulative unrealized loss of $3.7 billion on its total holdings, according to a Thursday research report from crypto insights company 10x Research.
The decline in net asset value (NAV) across these firms is making it difficult to attract new retail investors while leaving many existing shareholders effectively “trapped” unless they sell at a steep loss, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen wrote in a LinkedIn post.
“When the premium inevitably shrinks to zero, as it is doing now, investors find themselves trapped in the structure, unable to get out without significant damage, a true Hotel California scenario,” he said. He added that, unlike exchange-traded funds (ETFs), digital-asset treasury companies, or DATs, “layer on complex, opaque, and often hedge-fund-like fee structures that can quietly erode returns.”
BitMine, Ethereum, right-hand side (RHS) price. Source: 10X Research
The mNAV ratio compares a company’s enterprise value to the value of its crypto holdings. An mNAV above 1 allows a company to raise funds by issuing new shares to accumulate digital assets. Values below 1 make it much harder to expand capital and holdings.
BitMine’s basic mNAV stood at 0.77 while its diluted mNAV stood at 0.92, according to data from Bitminetracker.
SEC to hold privacy and financial surveillance roundtable in December
The US Securities and Exchange Commission’s Crypto Task Force has scheduled a roundtable discussion centered on privacy and financial surveillance for December, as a renewed focus on privacy grips the cryptocurrency industry.
The privacy roundtable is slated for Dec. 15. Like other SEC roundtables, crypto industry executives and SEC officials will discuss common pain points and solutions, but no hard policy proposals will be submitted.
Privacy tokens like Zcash experienced a price surge beginning in October. Source: CoinMarketCap
“Authoritarians thrive when people have no privacy. When those in charge start being hostile to privacy protections, it is a major red flag,” said Naomi Brockwell, founder of the Ludlow Institute, an organization advocating for liberty through technology.
The renewed interest in privacy hearkens back to crypto’s cypherpunk roots, and one of the core reasons the cryptographic technology that underpins crypto was invented — to ensure secure communication channels between parties in hostile environments.
Coinbase launches ETH-backed loans as onchain lending tops $1.25 billion
Coinbase has launched Ether-backed loans for US users, allowing customers to borrow USDC against their ETH holdings without selling, in a new offering powered by Morpho and running on Base.
The exchange said the product is available across most US states, except New York, with variable rates and liquidation risk tied to market conditions. Users can borrow up to $1 million in USDC (USDC) stablecoin.
Coinbase plans to expand the program to other assets, including loans backed by its staked Ether token, cbETH.
The new product is being launched in collaboration with Morpho, a decentralized finance (DeFi) lending protocol. In September, Coinbase integrated Morpho into the Coinbase app, offering users a yield of up to 10.8% on their USDC holdings.
According to Dune data, Coinbase’s onchain lending markets have processed more than $1.25 billion in loan originations, backed by about $1.37 billion in deposited collateral. Roughly $810 million in loans is outstanding, with more than 13,500 wallets holding active borrow positions.
Advocacy group proposes DeFi solutions to address global poverty
The DeFi Education Fund, an advocacy organization focused on decentralized finance, has proposed utilizing the technology to reduce costs, aiming to address poverty in the United States and globally.
In a Wednesday blog post, the group said DeFi infrastructure could potentially save unbanked and underbanked people around the world about $30 billion annually by reducing remittance costs. The organization cited examples of workers sending funds home and paying fees to do so, which could be reduced “by up to 80%” with DeFi.
“The poverty premium [the expenses incurred by low-income households that wealthier individuals are often able to access at a lower cost] persists because the current, layered, antiquated financial infrastructure makes it expensive to serve low-income customers profitably,” said the DeFi Education Fund, adding:
“Nothing is free, and DeFi doesn’t eliminate costs entirely, but by removing intermediaries and leveraging software rather than outdated financial systems, we can dramatically reduce the cost of financial services for everyday people and give them greater control of their finances.”
Many advocates have proposed utilizing various applications of blockchain technology to address factors that contribute to poverty, such as reducing transaction times, eliminating or reducing fees, and increasing access to financial services. The DeFi Education Fund cited the increasing costs in the US associated with cashing paychecks without a bank account, using money orders and owning a home.
Mastercard taps Polygon to turn clunky crypto addresses into simple usernames
Mastercard is expanding its Crypto Credential program to self-custody wallets, allowing users to send and receive cryptocurrencies using verified, username-style aliases instead of long wallet addresses.
Polygon will be the first blockchain to support the rollout, while payments firm Mercuryo will handle identity verification and issue the aliases to users, according to a Tuesday press release shared with Cointelegraph.
“By streamlining wallet addresses and adding meaningful verification, Mastercard Crypto Credential is building trust in digital token transfers,” said Raj Dhamodharan, executive vice president of blockchain and digital assets at Mastercard.
Once verified by Mercuryo, users can link a human-readable alias to their self-custody wallet or request a soulbound token on Polygon that proves the wallet belongs to a verified individual.
Mastercard chooses Polygon to launch username-based crypto transfers. Source: Polygon
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, most of the 100 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization ended the week in the red.
The privacy-centric Canton network’s (CC) token fell 32% marking the week’s biggest decline, followed by the Story (IP) token, down 29% during the past week.
Total value locked in DeFi. Source: DefiLlama
Thanks for reading our summary of this week’s most impactful DeFi developments. Join us next Friday for more stories, insights and education regarding this dynamically advancing space.
Bitcoin has been facing intense selling pressure, opening the doors for a fall to the crucial support at $73,777.
Several major altcoins have slipped below their support levels, indicating that bears remain in firm control.
Bitcoin (BTC) attempted a recovery on Friday, but the bears continued to exert pressure, bringing the price as low as $80,000 at Binance. The sentiment remains weak as US stock markets deepened their correction this week amid concerns about excessive valuations in the artificial intelligence sector. Additionally, expectations of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve have dropped to 33.1% from 98.1% on Oct. 21, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
The question on everyone’s mind is how low could BTC go? Bitwise European head of research André Dragosch said in a post on X that BTC is likely to bottom out in the zone between BlackRock’s IBIT cost-basis of $84,000 and Strategy’s cost-basis near $73,000.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView
Select analysts view the current dip as a positive development. Veteran trader Peter Brandt said in a post on X that the correction was the “best thing” that could have happened to BTC. He said he remains long-term bullish on BTC, expecting the price to rally to $200,000 around the third quarter of 2029.
What are the crucial overhead resistance levels to watch out for in BTC and major altcoins? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price prediction
BTC sliced through several short-term support levels and plunged to $80,600, signaling aggressive selling by the bears.
The next major support on the downside is at $73,777. Buyers are expected to defend the $73,777 level with all their might, as a break below it opens the gates for a collapse to $53,500.
Sharp corrections are followed by an equally sharp rally. The oversold levels on the relative strength index (RSI) indicate a potential relief rally in the near term. That could push the BTC/USDT pair to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($97,319), where the bears are expected to mount a strong defense.
Ether price prediction
Ether (ETH) closed below the $3,000 level on Thursday, clearing the path for a collapse to $2,500.
The fall has pushed the RSI into the oversold zone, signaling that a relief rally is possible in the near term. If the Ether price turns up from the current level or rebounds off $2,500, the ETH/USDT pair could reach the breakdown level of $3,350.
On the contrary, a shallow bounce off $2,500 suggests weak demand from the bulls. That increases the risk of the continuation of the downward trend. The pair could then tumble to the $2,111 level.
XRP price prediction
XRP (XRP) slipped below the support line of the descending channel pattern on Friday, indicating that the bears are in charge.
If the price closes below the support line, the XRP/USDT pair may descend to the $1.61 support. Buyers are expected to defend the $1.61 level with all their might, as a break below it could start a new downtrend to $1.27 and then to $1.
On the upside, the zone between the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($2.45) and the downtrend line is the key resistance to keep an eye on. Buyers will have to thrust the XRP price above the downtrend line to signal a potential trend change.
BNB price prediction
BNB (BNB) remains in a firm bear grip as sellers attempt to maintain the price below the $860 support.
A close below $860 could intensify selling, pulling the BNB price to $818 and then to $730. The sharp fall of the past few days has pulled the RSI into oversold territory, suggesting a relief rally in the near term.
Any recovery attempt is expected to face selling at the breakdown level of $860 and then at the 20-day EMA ($946). If the price turns down from the overhead resistance, the bears will strive to pull the BNB/USDT pair to $625. The first sign of strength will be a close above the 20-day EMA. That opens the doors for a rally to $1,019 and then to the 50-day SMA ($1,069).
Solana price prediction
Buyers attempted a relief rally in Solana (SOL) on Thursday, but the long wick on the candlestick shows that the bears are active at higher levels.
The bears are trying to strengthen their position by sustaining the Solana price below the $126 support. If they manage to do that, the selling could pick up and the SOL/USDT pair could decline to $110 and later to $95.
The 20-day EMA ($150) remains the key short-term resistance to watch out for on the upside. Buyers will have to pierce the 20-day EMA to signal the start of a sustained recovery to the 50-day SMA ($179).
Dogecoin price prediction
Dogecoin (DOGE) has reached the bottom of the $0.14 to $0.29 range, where the buyers are expected to step in.
The bulls will have to push the Dogecoin price above the 20-day EMA ($0.16) to signal strength. The DOGE/USDT pair may then rise to the 50-day SMA and later to the $0.21 level. Such a move suggests that the pair may extend its stay inside the wide range for a while longer.
Alternatively, a break and close below $0.14 indicates that the bears have overpowered the bulls. The pair may then start a new downtrend toward the Oct. 10 low of $0.10.
Cardano price prediction
Cardano (ADA) continued its slide and reached the first support at $0.40, indicating that the bears are in command.
The sharp fall has pulled the RSI into the oversold territory, suggesting a recovery may be around the corner. The relief rally is expected to face selling at the breakdown level of $0.50. If the Cardano price turns down from $0.50, it suggests that the bears have flipped the level into resistance. That increases the risk of a drop toward $0.27.
On the contrary, if buyers drive the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.51), it signals that the bears are losing their grip. The ADA/USDT pair may then climb to the 50-day SMA ($0.62).
The selling picked up, and the bears pulled the price below the $35.50 support on Friday. If the price closes below $35.50, the HYPE/USDT pair could start a new downtrend toward $28 and then $24.
Buyers will have to quickly reclaim the $35.50 level to signal that the market has rejected the breakdown. The bulls will gain the upper hand after they propel the Hyperliquid price above the 50-day SMA ($40.98).
Zcash price prediction
Zcash (ZEC) bounced off the 20-day EMA ($559) on Tuesday, but the up move is facing selling near $750.
The negative divergence on the RSI suggests weakening bullish momentum. Sellers will try to pull the Zcash price below the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the ZEC/USDT pair could correct to $424.
On the other hand, the bulls will have to defend the 20-day EMA if they want to retain the advantage. A close above the $750 resistance could start the next leg of the uptrend toward the psychological level of $1,000.
Bitcoin Cash price prediction
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) made a sharp recovery from the solid support at $443, indicating that the bulls are aggressively defending the level.
The relief rally is expected to face selling at the resistance line of the falling wedge pattern. If the price turns down from the resistance line and breaks below the moving averages, it suggests that the bears remain active at higher levels. The bears will then make one more attempt to sink the BCH/USDT pair below $443.
Conversely, a break and close above the resistance line signals a potential trend change. The BCH price could rally to $580 and then to $615.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Khurram Dara, a former policy lawyer at cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, officially launched his campaign for New York State Attorney General.
In a Friday notice, Dara cited his “regulatory and policy experience, particularly in the crypto and fintech space” among his reasons to try to unseat Attorney General Letitia James in 2026.
The former Coinbase lawyer had been hinting since August at potential plans to run for office, claiming that James had engaged in “lawfare” against the crypto industry in New York.
Until July, Dara was the regulatory and policy principal at Bain Capital Crypto, the digital asset arm of the investment company. According to his LinkedIn profile, he worked as Coinbase’s policy counsel from June 2022 to January 2023 and was previously employed at the crypto companies Fluidity and Airswap.
James, who took office in 2019, has faced criticism from many in the crypto industry for filing lawsuits against companies on behalf of affected New Yorkers, including Genesis, KuCoin and NovaTech. Whoever assumes the role of New York’s attorney general would have significant discretion over whether to file charges against crypto companies.
Dara, who said he plans to run as a Republican, also echoed Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s recent winning campaign, citing New Yorkers’ concerns about the cost of living and affordability. Cointelegraph reached out to Dara for comment, but had not received a response at the time of publication.
The lawyer who represented XRP holders is also running for office again
As the deadline approached for candidates for various offices to announce their runs, former Massachusetts senatorial candidate John Deaton said he would try to unseat a Democrat again.
Deaton ran against Senator Elizabeth Warren in 2024, losing by about 700,000 votes. On Nov. 10, however, he announced he would run as a Republican again, attempting to unseat Senator Ed Markey in 2026.
Deaton gained recognition in the crypto industry by advocating on behalf of XRP holders in the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s lawsuit against Ripple.
Like Dara, Deaton will be running in a race that largely favors Democrats: The last Republican to win a US Senate seat for Massachusetts was in 2010. Both candidates are expected to face competition in their respective Republican primaries.
AAVE price prediction shows potential recovery to $214 within 4-6 weeks, though immediate downside risk to $120 exists. Technical analysis reveals oversold conditions may spark bounce.
AAVE Price Prediction: Technical Reversal Signals Point to $214 Recovery Target
Aave (AAVE) finds itself at a critical juncture as technical indicators flash mixed signals for the DeFi protocol’s native token. Trading at $158.82 with bearish momentum dominating short-term charts, our AAVE price prediction suggests a potential reversal could drive prices toward $214 within the next 4-6 weeks, despite immediate downside risks.
AAVE Price Prediction Summary
• AAVE short-term target (1 week): $175-$185 (+10-16%) – Initial bounce off oversold levels
• Aave medium-term forecast (1 month): $195-$225 range – Recovery toward moving average resistance
• Key level to break for bullish continuation: $192.62 (20-day SMA)
• Critical support if bearish: $147.13, with major support at $120
Recent Aave Price Predictions from Analysts
The latest analyst forecasts present a divergent outlook that reflects current market uncertainty. Short-term predictions from AMB Crypto targeting $214.52 align closely with our technical assessment, while CoinCodex’s $192.51 forecast appears conservative given oversold conditions.
However, 30rates.com’s bearish Aave forecast calling for a decline to $120 by month-end represents the most concerning scenario, particularly as AAVE currently trades near Bollinger Band support at $152.47. The wide disparity between long-term projections – ranging from Coinbase’s modest $294.38 to Changelly’s ambitious $340.73 – suggests significant uncertainty about Aave’s fundamental trajectory.
The consensus appears cautiously optimistic for medium-term recovery, with most analysts expecting AAVE to reclaim the $200+ level within coming weeks, supporting our core AAVE price prediction thesis.
AAVE Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Oversold Bounce
Current technical conditions strongly suggest AAVE has reached oversold territory that typically precedes meaningful bounces. The RSI reading of 33.81 sits in neutral-to-oversold range, while the token’s position just 0.08 above the lower Bollinger Band indicates extreme selling pressure may be exhausted.
The MACD histogram at -2.2582 confirms bearish momentum remains intact, but the divergence between price action and momentum indicators often signals impending reversals. AAVE’s retreat below all major moving averages creates substantial resistance overhead, with the 7-day SMA at $170.98 representing the first technical hurdle.
Volume analysis reveals $47.7 million in 24-hour trading activity, suggesting adequate liquidity for any directional move. The Average True Range of $19.38 indicates heightened volatility that could amplify any technical breakout or breakdown.
Most significantly, AAVE trades 55.61% below its 52-week high of $357.78, creating compelling risk-reward dynamics for patient buyers willing to weather potential further downside.
Aave Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for AAVE
Our primary bullish AAVE price target centers on the $214.52 level identified by recent analyst predictions. This target aligns with the midpoint between current price and the 20-day moving average resistance.
For this scenario to unfold, AAVE must first reclaim immediate resistance at $168.06 (yesterday’s high), followed by a break above $175. Sustained buying pressure could then drive prices toward the 7-day SMA at $170.98, with momentum building toward our primary AAVE price target of $214.
The ultimate bullish target sits at $237.07 (immediate technical resistance), which would represent a 49% gain from current levels. This scenario requires broader DeFi sector strength and successful defense of the $147.13 support level.
Bearish Risk for Aave
The primary downside risk materializes if AAVE breaks below immediate support at $147.13, opening the path toward the $120 target predicted by 30rates.com. This bearish Aave forecast becomes probable if broader crypto markets experience significant selling pressure.
A break below $120 would expose the major support zone at $79.51, representing potential 50%+ downside from current levels. This extreme scenario would likely coincide with broader DeFi sector distress and require fundamental deterioration in Aave’s protocol metrics.
Should You Buy AAVE Now? Entry Strategy
Based on our Aave technical analysis, the current risk-reward profile favors patient accumulation with strict risk management. The optimal buy or sell AAVE decision depends on individual risk tolerance and investment timeline.
Conservative Entry Strategy: Wait for a break above $168 with volume confirmation before establishing positions, targeting 25% exposure initially with plans to add on strength above $175.
Aggressive Entry Strategy: Begin accumulation between $150-$158 with stop-loss orders below $147. This approach captures maximum upside if our oversold bounce thesis proves correct.
Risk Management: All positions should maintain stop-losses below $147.13, with profit-taking planned at $185, $205, and $225 levels to capture gains during the anticipated recovery.
AAVE Price Prediction Conclusion
Our comprehensive AAVE price prediction anticipates a recovery toward $214 within 4-6 weeks, representing 35% upside potential from current levels. This forecast carries MEDIUM confidence based on oversold technical conditions and supportive analyst sentiment.
The key indicators to monitor include RSI movement above 40, MACD histogram turning positive, and successful defense of the $147.13 support level. Volume expansion above 50 million daily would provide additional confirmation of our bullish thesis.
Traders should prepare for initial volatility as AAVE works through overhead resistance, but the combination of oversold conditions and analyst price targets supports our medium-term recovery outlook. The timeline for this Aave forecast extends through December 2025, with critical inflection points expected within the next 2-3 weeks.
While spot Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are facing some of the biggest daily outflows since they launch, two new altcoin products are bucking the trend.
Despite the broader market rout, Solana (SOL) and XRP (XRP) ETFs have yet to record a single outflow day since launch, according to crypto ETF data aggregator SoSoValue. This makes the two altcoin ETFs rare green marks in an otherwise red ETF landscape.
The inflows are becoming substantial. Data shows that Solana-based spot ETFs have accumulated nearly $500 million in net inflows, while XRP ETFs have seen $410 million in cumulative net inflows to date.
The divergence comes amid one of the most severe multi-week outflow streaks in spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETF history. While flagship crypto products are seeing large-scale redemptions, steady inflows into new ETFs suggest a small but notable hint of conviction among investors exploring exposure beyond the two largest assets.
Solana ETF inflows in November. Source: Farside Investors
XRP and Solana ETFs log consistent inflows amid market stress
On Thursday, Bitwise Asset Management launched its XRP ETF under the ticker “XRP.” The ETF made a strong debut, pulling in $105 million on its first trading day, according to SoSoValue data.
Asset manager Canary’s XRPC added another $12.8 million on Thursday, bringing total inflows to $118 million on the day.
Canary CEO Steven McClurg congratulated Bitwise on the launch, saying that they’re “rooting” for them despite being competitors in the space.
Canary has also contributed to the consistency of XRP ETF inflows. It currently holds the record for the largest XRP ETF inflow day, pulling in $243 million in inflows on Nov. 14 for XRPC.
Solana-based ETFs displayed a similar pattern of resilience, recording consistent daily inflows even as the broader markets declined.
SOL-based ETF products attracted between $8.26 million and $55.61 million per day this week, with Nov. 19 marking the strongest daily inflow.
Solana and XRP tokens are in the red despite ETF gains
Despite the steady gains posted by SOL and XRP-based ETFs, the underlying assets behind the exchange-traded products saw poor performances in the past month.
Solana declined by 32.5% in the past month and 10.9% in the last week, according to CoinGecko data. At the time of writing, the token trades at $122.94, representing a 52.3% decline in the last year.
Solana’s 30-day price chart. Source: CoinGecko
Meanwhile, XRP performed similarly recently, declining by 21.2% over the last 30 days and 16.6% over the last week.
However, its yearly chart tells a different story. The asset currently trades at $1.86, representing a 49.9% increase over the past year, according to CoinGecko.
Gold has long met store-of-value standards, while fiat currencies lose purchasing power over time. Bitcoin now meets several of the same store-of-value benchmarks.
With a hard cap of 21 million coins and around-the-clock global trading, Bitcoin offers digital scarcity, durability supported by network security and liquidity that rivals many traditional assets.
Concerns remain, including short-term volatility, inconsistent global regulations, cybersecurity risks, limited historical data and challenges integrating Bitcoin into traditional investment models.
Still, rising inflation, geopolitical tension and weakening confidence in some fiat currencies are prompting pension funds to explore Bitcoin as part of a long-term strategy.
A key question has followed Bitcoin (BTC) since it gained prominence: Can it reliably act as a store of value? The idea has long intrigued individual investors, and now even pension funds are beginning to explore it. They are assessing whether Bitcoin can preserve value over time, potentially alongside or even competing with traditional safe assets such as gold.
This article examines what defines a store-of-value asset and how pension funds are approaching Bitcoin. It compares Bitcoin with established store-of-value assets and explores how crypto exposure for pension funds may expand beyond BTC.
What defines a store-of-value asset?
A store-of-value asset maintains its purchasing power over long periods. It typically has four main qualities:
Scarcity: A limited supply that is difficult to expand
Durability: The ability to last without degrading
Portability: Ease of transfer and storage
Liquidity: The ability to be easily exchanged for goods or other assets.
Gold has traditionally met these standards. Fiat currencies, by contrast, lose value over time because of inflation and an expanding money supply. Pension funds are taking interest in Bitcoin because, in some areas, it may outperform both gold and fiat currencies.
Bitcoin’s total supply is capped at 21 million coins. It is fully digital, remains secure as long as the network functions and trades worldwide around the clock with strong liquidity.
Did you know? Despite being called “coins,” Bitcoin exists only as entries on a decentralized digital ledger. There are no physical Bitcoins anywhere.
Pension funds: Cautious yet interested
Pension funds operate under strict regulations designed to protect investors’ money and deliver steady retirement income over decades. This framework has made them cautious toward volatile or lightly regulated assets. Their key concerns include:
Challenges integrating Bitcoin with traditional investment models.
However, the broader economic environment is changing. Rising inflation, geopolitical tension and concerns about the stability of some fiat currencies are prompting investors to review alternative assets that may help preserve value. As cryptocurrency becomes more integrated into mainstream finance, pension funds are assessing whether excluding digital assets could limit diversification rather than enhance it.
Case study: AMP Super’s approach to Bitcoin
Australian superannuation fund AMP Super made an allocation to Bitcoin futures through its dynamic asset allocation program. The fund does not classify Bitcoin as a speculative bet. Instead, it views Bitcoin as part of a broader strategy to protect purchasing power and hedge against currency weakness.
The fund’s research found that Bitcoin aligns well with store-of-value criteria, in some cases more effectively than many conventional assets.
The fund’s approach involves:
Assessing Bitcoin against store-of-value criteria such as scarcity, durability, portability and liquidity.
Using trading signals in its dynamic asset allocation program that include price momentum, investor sentiment, liquidity and inflation-change indicators to guide the size and timing of the allocation.
Observing how Bitcoin responds to changes in inflation expectations and other macro signals rather than simply focusing on inflation levels.
Employing onchain analytics to monitor blockchain data metrics as part of evaluating market conditions and trading signal generation.
This cautious, evidence-based strategy offers a model for other pension funds, combining traditional analysis with cryptocurrency-specific tools.
Did you know? One Bitcoin can be divided into 100 million units called “satoshis,” which allows for micropayments.
How Bitcoin compares to traditional store-of-value assets
Bitcoin differs from assets such as gold in volatility, liquidity, scarcity and regulatory risk. Understanding these differences is important when assessing its potential role in a diversified portfolio:
Scarcity: Bitcoin’s capped supply is enforced by code. This contrasts with gold, which can be mined, and fiat money, which can expand through policy.
Portability and liquidity: Bitcoin can be transferred globally within minutes and trades around the clock. Gold is costly to move and store, and fiat transactions depend on banking infrastructure.
Response to inflation: Bitcoin and gold often rise when inflation expectations shift. This can make both useful for funds seeking to maintain real returns.
Diversification: Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks and bonds has varied but generally remains low enough to provide diversification benefits. Even a small allocation can improve risk-adjusted returns in some portfolio simulations.
Crypto investments beyond Bitcoin for pension funds
Pension funds are also exploring crypto investments beyond Bitcoin. For example, turning asset rights into digital tokens could streamline how investments are held, transferred and settled. This approach makes assets programmable, allows digital wallets to replace traditional accounts and uses blockchain to lower operational costs.
However, current systems still need technical improvements and broader adoption to realize these benefits fully. Blockchain has the potential to reduce reconciliation costs and unlock new forms of settlement, but several implementation challenges must be addressed.
Bitcoin faces challenges such as:
Evolving regulations for digital assets
Ensuring secure, insured and approved custody
Obtaining regulatory approval for new projects
Building internal expertise through training.
Pension funds view Bitcoin as a supplement rather than a replacement for assets such as gold or inflation-protected bonds. They have found that Bitcoin can behave like a store-of-value asset during shifts in inflation expectations and that modest allocations may help improve overall portfolio performance.
Gold has long met store-of-value standards, while fiat currencies lose purchasing power over time. Bitcoin now meets several of the same store-of-value benchmarks.
With a hard cap of 21 million coins and around-the-clock global trading, Bitcoin offers digital scarcity, durability supported by network security and liquidity that rivals many traditional assets.
Concerns remain, including short-term volatility, inconsistent global regulations, cybersecurity risks, limited historical data and challenges integrating Bitcoin into traditional investment models.
Still, rising inflation, geopolitical tension and weakening confidence in some fiat currencies are prompting pension funds to explore Bitcoin as part of a long-term strategy.
A key question has followed Bitcoin (BTC) since it gained prominence: Can it reliably act as a store of value? The idea has long intrigued individual investors, and now even pension funds are beginning to explore it. They are assessing whether Bitcoin can preserve value over time, potentially alongside or even competing with traditional safe assets such as gold.
This article examines what defines a store-of-value asset and how pension funds are approaching Bitcoin. It compares Bitcoin with established store-of-value assets and explores how crypto exposure for pension funds may expand beyond BTC.
What defines a store-of-value asset?
A store-of-value asset maintains its purchasing power over long periods. It typically has four main qualities:
Scarcity: A limited supply that is difficult to expand
Durability: The ability to last without degrading
Portability: Ease of transfer and storage
Liquidity: The ability to be easily exchanged for goods or other assets.
Gold has traditionally met these standards. Fiat currencies, by contrast, lose value over time because of inflation and an expanding money supply. Pension funds are taking interest in Bitcoin because, in some areas, it may outperform both gold and fiat currencies.
Bitcoin’s total supply is capped at 21 million coins. It is fully digital, remains secure as long as the network functions and trades worldwide around the clock with strong liquidity.
Did you know? Despite being called “coins,” Bitcoin exists only as entries on a decentralized digital ledger. There are no physical Bitcoins anywhere.
Pension funds: Cautious yet interested
Pension funds operate under strict regulations designed to protect investors’ money and deliver steady retirement income over decades. This framework has made them cautious toward volatile or lightly regulated assets. Their key concerns include:
Challenges integrating Bitcoin with traditional investment models.
However, the broader economic environment is changing. Rising inflation, geopolitical tension and concerns about the stability of some fiat currencies are prompting investors to review alternative assets that may help preserve value. As cryptocurrency becomes more integrated into mainstream finance, pension funds are assessing whether excluding digital assets could limit diversification rather than enhance it.
Case study: AMP Super’s approach to Bitcoin
Australian superannuation fund AMP Super made an allocation to Bitcoin futures through its dynamic asset allocation program. The fund does not classify Bitcoin as a speculative bet. Instead, it views Bitcoin as part of a broader strategy to protect purchasing power and hedge against currency weakness.
The fund’s research found that Bitcoin aligns well with store-of-value criteria, in some cases more effectively than many conventional assets.
The fund’s approach involves:
Assessing Bitcoin against store-of-value criteria such as scarcity, durability, portability and liquidity.
Using trading signals in its dynamic asset allocation program that include price momentum, investor sentiment, liquidity and inflation-change indicators to guide the size and timing of the allocation.
Observing how Bitcoin responds to changes in inflation expectations and other macro signals rather than simply focusing on inflation levels.
Employing onchain analytics to monitor blockchain data metrics as part of evaluating market conditions and trading signal generation.
This cautious, evidence-based strategy offers a model for other pension funds, combining traditional analysis with cryptocurrency-specific tools.
Did you know? One Bitcoin can be divided into 100 million units called “satoshis,” which allows for micropayments.
How Bitcoin compares to traditional store-of-value assets
Bitcoin differs from assets such as gold in volatility, liquidity, scarcity and regulatory risk. Understanding these differences is important when assessing its potential role in a diversified portfolio:
Scarcity: Bitcoin’s capped supply is enforced by code. This contrasts with gold, which can be mined, and fiat money, which can expand through policy.
Portability and liquidity: Bitcoin can be transferred globally within minutes and trades around the clock. Gold is costly to move and store, and fiat transactions depend on banking infrastructure.
Response to inflation: Bitcoin and gold often rise when inflation expectations shift. This can make both useful for funds seeking to maintain real returns.
Diversification: Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks and bonds has varied but generally remains low enough to provide diversification benefits. Even a small allocation can improve risk-adjusted returns in some portfolio simulations.
Crypto investments beyond Bitcoin for pension funds
Pension funds are also exploring crypto investments beyond Bitcoin. For example, turning asset rights into digital tokens could streamline how investments are held, transferred and settled. This approach makes assets programmable, allows digital wallets to replace traditional accounts and uses blockchain to lower operational costs.
However, current systems still need technical improvements and broader adoption to realize these benefits fully. Blockchain has the potential to reduce reconciliation costs and unlock new forms of settlement, but several implementation challenges must be addressed.
Bitcoin faces challenges such as:
Evolving regulations for digital assets
Ensuring secure, insured and approved custody
Obtaining regulatory approval for new projects
Building internal expertise through training.
Pension funds view Bitcoin as a supplement rather than a replacement for assets such as gold or inflation-protected bonds. They have found that Bitcoin can behave like a store-of-value asset during shifts in inflation expectations and that modest allocations may help improve overall portfolio performance.
An in-depth analysis of the evolution of crypto wallet technologies, highlighting self-custodial, embedded wallets, and Smart Accounts shaping the future of blockchain interactions.
The landscape of cryptocurrency wallet technologies is undergoing a transformative shift, according to an article by Ryan Yi on Paragraph. With advancements in both blockspace and wallet infrastructure, the crypto ecosystem is poised for significant changes that could redefine user interactions within the next five years.
Wallet Technology Overview
Historically, self-custodial wallets have been the primary means for users to interact with blockchain networks. These wallets, such as Trust Wallet, Coinbase Wallet, and Metamask, require users to manage their keys and transactions independently. However, the introduction of new technologies like embedded wallets and Wallet-As-A-Service (WaaS) is set to revolutionize this space.
Embedded Wallets and WaaS
Embedded wallets, also known as Multi-Party Computation (MPC) wallets, allow users to log in using familiar web2 credentials, such as email or social media accounts. This system distributes key management between the user’s device, the decentralized application (Dapp), and potentially a third-party service. Embedded wallets promise a seamless user experience, crucial for onboarding non-crypto native users.
Despite being in the early stages, the potential for embedded wallets to improve user experience is evident. They offer users the option to export keys, maintaining control over their wallets, and can link multiple Dapps under a single provider, enhancing user convenience and data integration.
The Rise of Smart Accounts
Smart Accounts, which utilize smart contract wallets with account abstraction features, represent another innovation in the wallet sector. These accounts allow users to authorize transactions executed by third-parties, offering flexibility and enhanced functionality.
Smart Accounts are seen as complementary to existing trends, with potential to integrate with self-custodial and embedded wallet technologies. These developments could enable features like gasless transactions, further easing user interaction with blockchain applications.
Impact on Adoption and Business Models
The evolution of wallet technologies is expected to have significant implications for user adoption and business models in the crypto space. Embedded wallets, operating on a freemium or SaaS model, could lower onboarding friction and costs, potentially expanding the user base to include those unfamiliar with traditional crypto setups.
Moreover, regulatory considerations and geographic factors might influence the adoption of different wallet types, with embedded wallets potentially facing classification as custodial services in certain jurisdictions.
Conclusion
The progression of wallet technologies marks a pivotal moment for the crypto industry, akin to an “iPhone moment” for blockchain interactions. As the ecosystem continues to develop, the integration of these advanced wallet solutions is expected to drive widespread adoption and enhance the utility of blockchain technologies across various applications.
