Strategy paused its Bitcoin (BTC) accumulation via STRC preferred stock after failing to raise fresh capital since Friday, marking a notable shift after two aggressive weeks of buying.
Strategy’s STRC dashboard ft. at-the-market sales. Source: STRC.LIVE
Key takeaways:
STRC has dipped below its $100 par value, forcing Strategy to halt its Bitcoin buying spree.
Previous STRC dips below $100 have coincided with declines in BTC prices.
STRC drops below $100 par value
The pause coincided with STRC trading below its $100 par value, a key threshold for Strategy’s at-the-market (ATM) issuance model.
Strategy typically issues new shares only when STRC trades at or above par to raise capital efficiently. When the price falls below $100, the company must offer better terms or sell at a discount, making issuance unattractive.
As a result, the funding channel shuts off, stalling STRC-backed BTC buys, which appears to be the case since Friday.
In total, Strategy added over 40,000 BTC in two weeks, with STRC serving as a key funding source. That’s roughly six times the total Bitcoin mined over the same two-week period.
STRC fractals hint at BTC dipping below $70,000
Historically, pauses in Strategy’s STRC-driven Bitcoin accumulation aligned with short-term BTC pullbacks.
For instance, after STRC slipped below its $100 par value in January, Bitcoin fell nearly 40% over the next three weeks.
BTC/USD vs. STRC daily performance chart. Source: TradingView
A similar setup in November 2025 preceded a BTC price decline of around 25%, suggesting that the latest STRC move below $100 could again raise the risk of a near-term BTC price pullback.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
World’s AgentKit lets AI agents carry cryptographic proof of human backing, integrating with Coinbase’s x402 protocol to combat Sybil attacks in agentic commerce.
World has partnered with Coinbase to release AgentKit, a developer toolkit enabling AI agents to carry cryptographic proof that a verified human stands behind them. The beta launch addresses a fundamental problem as autonomous agents become economic actors online: how do platforms distinguish legitimate automated traffic from coordinated bot swarms?
The timing matters. McKinsey projects agentic commerce could hit $3 to $5 trillion globally by 2030, while Bain estimates AI agents may handle up to 25% of U.S. e-commerce within that timeframe. Yet most websites still block automated traffic entirely, unable to separate helpful AI assistants from malicious bots.
The Sybil Problem Micropayments Can’t Solve
AgentKit builds on Coinbase and Cloudflare’s x402 protocol, which processed over 100 million micropayments in its first six months after launching in 2025. Micropayments work as a rate limiter, but they reveal nothing about uniqueness. One person could operate thousands of agents, each paying individually, and platforms would have no way to distinguish them from a thousand different users.
“Payments are the ‘how’ of agentic commerce, but identity is the ‘who,'” says Erik Reppel, Head of Engineering at Coinbase Developer Platform and Founder of x402. “By integrating World ID with the x402 protocol, developers now have a complete trust stack.”
World points to real-world examples of the problem. On Moltbook, a small number of individuals deployed large agent swarms to amplify specific tokens and distort engagement metrics. Without human verification, the platform couldn’t distinguish organic activity from coordinated manipulation.
How Human-Backed Agents Work
The mechanics are straightforward. A verified World ID holder registers their agent through standard verification. When that agent accesses an x402-enabled website, the site can request proof of human backing alongside or instead of payment. Valid proof grants access.
One person can delegate to multiple agents—that’s expected. The critical feature is that websites can see all those agents trace back to the same unique human. If someone spins up a hundred agents to flood a platform, the site recognizes it’s dealing with a single person and can set limits accordingly.
World claims nearly 18 million verified humans across 160+ countries in its network, making it the largest real human verification system available.
Practical Applications Beyond Spam Prevention
Restaurant reservation platforms like Resy or OpenTable could let human-backed agents book tables while blocking scalpers who deploy hundreds of bots to hoard reservations. Ticketing platforms face the same dynamic with concert sales.
Phone number allocation presents another use case. Agents increasingly need numbers for two-factor authentication. Without human verification, thousands of agents could each acquire unique numbers, overwhelming telecom infrastructure. AgentKit allows services to issue one number per verified human, shared across their agents.
Free trials get similar protection. Rather than letting any wallet-holding agent burn through limited offers, platforms can extend five free requests per unique human.
What’s Next
AgentKit beta is available now through docs.world.org/agents/agent-kit for developers with verified World IDs. A more robust 1.0 version is planned alongside World ID 4.0’s rollout.
The broader question facing every major platform—from e-commerce to social media to financial services—remains the same: how do you let productive agents in while keeping bad actors out? AgentKit offers one answer, though adoption will determine whether it becomes standard infrastructure for the agentic web or remains a niche tool for privacy-conscious developers.
Mastercard has agreed to acquire stablecoin infrastructure company BVNK in a deal valued at up to $1.8 billion, further expanding into blockchain-based payments.
The deal includes up to $300 million in contingent payments and is intended to strengthen Mastercard’s ability to connect fiat payment rails with onchain transactions, the company said on Tuesday.
“We expect that most financial institutions and fintechs will in time provide digital currency services, be it with stablecoins or tokenized deposits,” Jorn Lambert, chief product officer at Mastercard, said.
BVNK, founded in 2021, provides infrastructure that allows businesses to send and receive payments across major blockchain networks in more than 130 countries. Its platform is designed to bridge fiat currencies and stablecoins, enabling use cases such as cross-border payments, payouts and business transactions.
In November 2025, Coinbase and BVNK announced they had mutually walked away from a proposed $2 billion acquisition that had reached the due diligence stage. No reason was disclosed for the cancellation of the deal.
Top stablecoins by market cap. Source: CoinMarketCap
BVNK has received investment from a number of major traditional payment firms. In May 2025, Visa made a strategic investment in the company through its Visa Ventures arm, which came after the stablecoin infrastructure company closed a $50 million Series B funding round led by Haun Ventures.
In October 2025, Citigroup’s venture arm, Citi Ventures, also invested in BVNK. While the investment size was not disclosed, BVNK said at the time that its valuation had surpassed $750 million.
Stablecoins could power global payments within 15 years
Last week, billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller said stablecoins and blockchain technology could reshape global payments within the next decade, citing their speed, efficiency and lower costs compared to traditional systems. He argued that stablecoins could eventually replace existing payment rails, even as he remains skeptical about crypto’s role as a long-term store of value.
His comments come as traditional financial firms increasingly explore stablecoin-based systems following regulatory progress, including the GENIUS Act in the US.
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
Bitcoin’s price reflects short-term marginal buying and selling, while adoption reflects long-term structural shifts. Ownership expansion, institutional integration and merchant growth can accelerate even when the market price remains flat or declines.
In 2025, Bitcoin expanded significantly across institutions, banks, corporations, merchants and sovereign entities. These shifts represent deeper entrenchment within global financial systems, even as headline price performance appeared underwhelming.
Institutions accumulated substantial amounts of Bitcoin, but much of this demand was offset by distribution from long-term holders. As supply changes hands between cohorts, price may consolidate instead of surge.
Merchant adoption and Lightning Network expansion improve Bitcoin’s real-world functionality. However, widespread instant conversion to fiat limits sustained net buying pressure unless merchants retain the Bitcoin they receive.
The contrast between Bitcoin’s (BTC) market price and its network adoption has never been more stark. While the price chart has spent much of the past year well below its peak, the underlying data reveals a different reality. In 2025, Bitcoin witnessed a massive, quiet expansion across banks, corporations and sovereign states.
This paradox exists because short-term marginal price formation is often driven by speculative noise, whereas structural adoption is driven by long-term institutional entrenchment. Bitcoin’s fundamentals are compounding at record speed even when the ticker remains stagnant.
This article explores why Bitcoin’s structural adoption across institutions, advisors, corporations and merchants has accelerated even as price action underperforms. It explains how ownership transfer, small allocation sizes and macro liquidity can delay adoption’s impact on short-term price movements.
Bitcoin adoption and price track fundamentally distinct phenomena
When people refer to Bitcoin adoption, they are typically describing gradual, long-term structural shifts:
Who is accumulating and holding Bitcoin?
Which companies or platforms are launching Bitcoin-related products and services?
Who is beginning to accept it as payment?
Which institutions, corporations or even governments are incorporating it into their balance sheets or reserves?
These underlying changes evolve slowly, building incrementally over many months or years.
Price, by contrast, is determined at the margin in real time. It responds primarily to:
Immediate buyers and sellers in the market
Current liquidity dynamics
Leverage, futures and derivatives positioning
Broader macroeconomic sentiment and risk appetite
Supply being released or withheld by long-term holders
Strong adoption can steadily broaden the ownership base without necessarily driving prices higher. It can even coincide with flat or declining prices if distribution from seasoned holders matches incoming demand from newcomers. Ownership can shift between cohorts without triggering sharp repricing.
Did you know? As of March 15, 2026, more than 20 million Bitcoin had been mined out of a maximum total supply of 21 million, representing more than 95% of all BTC that will ever exist. The final Bitcoin is not expected to be mined until around 2140.
How expansion dynamics seem to be unfolding
While Bitcoin’s price action had been relatively weak as of March 2, 2026, adoption trends continued to show strength:
Institutions are accumulating at scale
In 2025, institutions reportedly accumulated roughly 829,000 Bitcoin across businesses, governments, funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This was not a marginal change but a meaningful shift in ownership structure.
Importantly, institutional exposure represents millions of underlying individuals gaining access through brokerage accounts, retirement plans, sovereign wealth funds and corporate balance sheets.
Much of this demand was absorbed by distribution from long-term holders and early adopters. When early whales sell into deeper liquidity, the price does not necessarily surge. Instead, supply shifts from one cohort to another.
Investment advisors have been net buyers for eight consecutive quarters
Registered investment advisors (RIAs) oversee roughly $146 trillion in client assets globally. Since Bitcoin ETFs launched, RIAs have steadily allocated capital, reportedly around $1.5 billion per quarter, without a single net-selling quarter.
That consistency matters.
However, average allocations remain extremely small. Many advisors hold Bitcoin at just basis-point levels in diversified portfolios. Until allocations move from fractions of a percent toward 1% to 2% model weights, the price impact may remain gradual.
In other words, the pipeline is open, but the flow rate is still increasing.
Banks are once again developing Bitcoin-related products
A growing share of major US banks are actively developing Bitcoin custody, trading, advisory and related services. Improved regulatory clarity compared with previous years has reduced institutional reluctance and opened the door to broader participation.
This growing involvement from traditional banks marks a key step toward normalization. Bitcoin is evolving from a speculative, peripheral asset into one that is increasingly embedded within mainstream financial systems and infrastructure.
That said, building products is not the same as achieving widespread availability. Initial launches often target ultra-high-net-worth individuals, institutional clients or remain in limited pilot phases. Rolling out full retail access requires significant time, compliance and operational scaling.
Ultimately, this infrastructure serves as a foundational enabler of future adoption rather than an immediate trigger for rapid market shifts.
Corporate Bitcoin adoption and the weight it brings
Corporate accumulation of Bitcoin can influence the market in several ways:
It steadily removes Bitcoin from liquid, circulating supply.
It demonstrates high-conviction, treasury-level endorsement from established businesses.
It fosters peer benchmarking, encouraging more companies to follow suit.
However, a large portion of these purchases occurs over-the-counter (OTC) or through carefully structured, gradual accumulation programs designed to avoid disrupting spot markets. This measured approach means corporate buying often reshapes long-term ownership patterns far more than it drives short-term explosive price action.
In short, corporate buying may influence long-term ownership patterns more than short-term price action.
Did you know? Bitcoin mining now consumes less energy than many traditional industries, including gold mining and the global banking system, according to several comparative energy studies.
Surge in merchant adoption of Bitcoin
Merchant acceptance of Bitcoin expanded rapidly in 2025. In November 2025, the Bitcoin Lightning Network reached a record $1.17 billion in volume. This suggests that the network is no longer used only for experimental “coffee” payments, but has also become a layer for high-value institutional settlements.
For merchants, Bitcoin offers clear operational advantages, including:
Drastically lower processing fees compared with traditional card networks
Elimination or near-elimination of chargeback risk
A large majority of merchants still opt for instant conversion of received Bitcoin payments into fiat currency through payment processors. As a result, incoming transaction volume does not reliably translate into sustained net buying pressure on Bitcoin itself.
Payments adoption meaningfully enhances Bitcoin’s real-world utility. However, utility alone does not generate lasting scarcity or upward price pressure unless merchants choose to hold the BTC they receive.
Bitcoin adoption by countries continues to grow
Throughout 2025, Bitcoin’s role as a strategic reserve asset expanded significantly as five more countries added it to their reserves. This wave of adoption spanned diverse regions and financial structures, including sovereign wealth funds in Saudi Arabia and Luxembourg, the Czech Republic’s central bank and direct acquisitions by Taiwan and Brazil.
Government involvement in Bitcoin adoption carries significance for several reasons. Countries operate on multidecade time horizons rather than quarterly earnings cycles. They typically adopt strategic, long-term holding policies rather than short-term trading. Adoption by sovereign entities confers powerful legitimacy on any asset class, signaling to markets, institutions and the public that Bitcoin is becoming part of mainstream financial frameworks.
Did you know? Lost Bitcoin is estimated to total several million coins, permanently reducing the effective circulating supply and increasing long-term scarcity.
Bitcoin’s volatility continues to decline
One of the most underappreciated indicators of maturing adoption is Bitcoin’s steadily declining volatility. Over the past decade, Bitcoin’s annualized volatility has fallen. Successive market cycles have produced progressively narrower percentage drawdowns and rallies compared with the extreme swings seen in earlier bull and bear phases.
This structural decline in volatility reflects several reinforcing developments:
Markedly deeper and more resilient market liquidity
More diversified distribution of ownership across holder cohorts
Growing institutional and professional participation
More sophisticated, liquid derivatives markets (futures, options and perpetuals) that help absorb shocks
Bitcoin’s volatility profile now increasingly resembles that of established asset classes such as stocks, commodities and foreign exchange. This aligns with the preferences of conservative capital allocators, including pension funds, endowments and risk-averse institutions.
Why hasn’t Bitcoin price reacted more aggressively?
While institutional and sovereign adoption increased in 2025, the market’s immediate price action remained muted. This quiet accumulation phase suggests that the true impact of large capital inflows was masked by macroeconomic headwinds.
Ownership transfer absorbs demand: When long-term Bitcoin holders distribute into institutional demand, the market can absorb large volumes without sharp upward price moves. Supply simply changes hands as adoption grows and price consolidates.
Adoption widens the base, not the margin: Marginal buyers and sellers play a key role in setting the price of cryptocurrencies. Structural adoption broadens the ownership base but does not always shift the aggressive marginal bid right away. Until fresh demand exceeds available supply, price can remain range-bound.
Allocation sizes remain small: Many institutions and advisors now allocate to Bitcoin, but at very modest weights. If that changes, marginal demand could increase.
Macro liquidity matters: Bitcoin exists within a broader macro environment. Factors shaping capital flows include liquidity conditions, interest rate expectations and global risk appetite. Greater Bitcoin adoption does not mean it is insulated from macro cycles.
Cointelegraph maintains full editorial independence. The selection, commissioning and publication of Features and Magazine content are not influenced by advertisers, partners or commercial relationships.
While specific analyst predictions are limited from recent social media activity, several forecasting reports have emerged with bullish AAVE price prediction scenarios. According to recent analysis from Coinbase published on March 12, AAVE carries a target price of $137.92, representing a potential 27.6% gain over a five-year horizon based on projected price movements.
Short-term forecasts appear more aggressive, with Aishwarya Shashikumar’s March 11 analysis suggesting “the price has the potential to rise 20.52% reaching $131.92 within the next five days.” This aligns with technical analyst Luisa Crawford’s assessment that “Aave (AAVE) eyes $131-137 targets as analysts project breakout potential despite current bearish momentum.”
These Aave forecast projections center around the $131-137 resistance zone, indicating potential upside of 7-12% from current levels.
AAVE Technical Analysis Breakdown
AAVE’s current technical picture presents a mixed but increasingly bullish setup. Trading at $122.03 with a 2.19% daily gain, the token has established itself above key short-term moving averages while facing significant overhead resistance.
The RSI reading of 56.34 places AAVE in neutral territory, suggesting room for further upside movement before reaching overbought conditions. However, the MACD histogram at 0.0000 indicates bearish momentum is potentially exhausting, which often precedes trend reversals in technical analysis.
Most notably, AAVE’s position within the Bollinger Bands shows the token trading near the upper band at a 0.97 position. This proximity to resistance suggests either a breakout attempt or potential pullback, making the next few trading sessions critical for direction.
The stochastic indicators paint a more bullish picture, with %K at 86.02 and %D at 68.82, indicating strong upward momentum that hasn’t yet reached extreme overbought levels.
Aave Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
In the bullish case, AAVE needs to clear the immediate resistance at $125.23 to target the strong resistance zone at $128.43. A sustained break above this level could trigger the analyst targets of $131-137, representing 12-20% upside potential.
The bullish thesis gains strength from AAVE’s position above the 7-day ($115.16) and 20-day ($113.45) moving averages, suggesting short-term trend support. The 24-hour trading volume of $16.7 million on Binance indicates healthy institutional interest at current levels.
Technical confirmation for the bullish Aave forecast would require a daily close above $125.23 with increasing volume, followed by a test and hold of this level as new support.
Bearish Scenario
The bearish case centers around AAVE’s significant distance below the 200-day moving average at $192.46, indicating the longer-term trend remains challenged. A failure to break above $125.23 could trigger profit-taking and send the token back toward the pivot point at $121.80.
Critical support lies at $118.60 (immediate) and $115.17 (strong support). A break below the strong support level would invalidate the bullish AAVE price prediction and potentially target the lower Bollinger Band at $104.26.
The daily ATR of $6.47 suggests significant volatility, meaning rapid moves in either direction remain possible.
Should You Buy AAVE? Entry Strategy
For traders considering AAVE positions, the current setup offers defined risk-reward parameters. Conservative entries could target the $118-120 range on any pullback, with stops below $115.17 to limit downside risk.
Aggressive traders might consider entries on a break above $125.23 with confirmation, targeting the $131-137 analyst projections. This approach carries higher risk but aligns with the bullish momentum indicated by recent forecasts.
Risk management remains crucial given AAVE’s volatility. Position sizing should account for the daily ATR of $6.47, and traders should be prepared for rapid price movements characteristic of DeFi tokens.
Conclusion
The AAVE price prediction landscape suggests cautious optimism for the coming weeks. Technical indicators show a token poised at critical resistance levels, with analyst targets of $131-137 providing clear upside objectives.
While the RSI remains neutral and MACD shows exhausting bearish momentum, AAVE’s position near Bollinger Band resistance requires careful monitoring. The confluence of analyst forecasts around the $131-137 level adds credibility to the bullish Aave forecast, though traders should remain alert to the strong support at $115.17 as a critical defense level.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
While specific analyst predictions are limited in recent days, several forecasting platforms have provided bullish outlooks for Lido DAO. According to CoinCodex analysis from early January 2026, LDO was predicted to reach $0.651700, while Blockchain.News suggested potential upside of 16-23% targeting the $0.66-$0.70 range within 4-6 weeks.
These earlier predictions, though dated, align with current technical patterns showing LDO positioned for potential upward momentum. On-chain data from major platforms indicates steady accumulation patterns, suggesting institutional interest remains strong in the liquid staking protocol.
LDO Technical Analysis Breakdown
The current LDO price prediction is supported by several key technical indicators showing neutral to bullish sentiment. At $0.32, Lido DAO is trading near its pivot point with an RSI of 51.40, indicating balanced momentum without overbought conditions.
The MACD histogram at 0.0000 suggests bearish momentum is weakening, potentially setting up for a bullish crossover. More importantly, LDO’s Bollinger Band position at 0.89 shows the token is trading near the upper resistance band at $0.33, indicating strong upward pressure.
Moving average analysis reveals mixed signals with short-term averages (SMA 7: $0.31, SMA 20: $0.30) below current price, while the SMA 50 at $0.34 presents immediate resistance. The significant gap to SMA 200 at $0.71 suggests substantial upside potential for longer-term holders.
The Stochastic indicators show %K at 83.77 and %D at 67.02, indicating momentum is building but not yet in overbought territory, providing room for further advancement.
Lido DAO Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
The primary Lido DAO forecast points to a breakout above the strong resistance level at $0.34, which would trigger the next leg higher toward $0.35-$0.40. Technical confirmation would come from:
Sustained break above $0.34 with increased volume
RSI moving above 60 to confirm bullish momentum
MACD histogram turning positive
A successful breach of $0.34 resistance could see LDO quickly advance to test the $0.40 level, representing a 25% gain from current levels. The daily ATR of $0.02 suggests normal volatility, allowing for steady progression without excessive whipsaw movements.
Bearish Scenario
The downside LDO price prediction scenario would see rejection at current resistance levels, potentially leading to a retest of support at $0.31. Further bearish signals would include:
Failure to hold above the SMA 20 at $0.30
RSI dropping below 45
Breaking below the Bollinger Band middle line
In a bear case, LDO could decline toward the lower Bollinger Band at $0.28, representing downside risk of approximately 12% from current levels.
Should You Buy LDO? Entry Strategy
Based on current technical analysis, the optimal entry strategy for Lido DAO involves:
Primary Entry Zone: $0.31-$0.32 (current support to pivot range) Aggressive Entry: Break above $0.34 with volume confirmation Conservative Entry: Pullback to $0.30 (SMA 20 support)
Stop-loss: $0.295 (below SMA 20 and psychological $0.30 level)
Target 1: $0.35 (initial resistance)
Target 2: $0.40 (extended target)
The risk-reward ratio favors bullish positioning with a tight stop-loss below key support levels. Daily volume of $3.14 million provides adequate liquidity for position management.
Conclusion
This Lido DAO forecast suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for the next 4-6 weeks. The combination of neutral RSI, weakening bearish MACD momentum, and strong Bollinger Band positioning supports a target range of $0.35-$0.40, representing potential gains of 10-25%.
The LDO price prediction carries moderate confidence given the current technical setup, though traders should remain vigilant for rejection at the $0.34 resistance level. Success above this key level would validate the bullish scenario and open the path toward higher targets.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are inherently speculative and based on technical analysis. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Sellers will attempt to halt the recovery at $74,508, but if buyers bulldoze their way through, the rally may reach $84,000.
Select major altcoins have risen above their overhead resistance levels, signaling solid demand at lower levels.
Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to $74,508 on Monday, a level that is a key near-term resistance. Crypto sentiment platform Santiment said in a recent report that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have started accumulating, which in the past was a bullish sign.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView
BTC is showing signs of a trend reversal, but the bears are unlikely to give up easily. Higher levels are likely to attract sellers who will attempt to trap the aggressive bulls. Material Indicators cofounder Keith Alan said in a video analysis that BTC is still in a bear market, and the price may retest the support near $60,000.
Could buyers sustain BTC and major altcoins above their resistance levels? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
S&P 500 Index price prediction
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) turned down from the 20-day exponential moving average (6,799) on Tuesday, indicating a negative sentiment.
The index may reach the 6,550 level, which is a crucial level to watch out for. If the price rebounds off the 6,550 level with force, the index may reach the 20-day EMA, where the bears are expected to step in. If the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, the likelihood of a break below the 6,550 level increases. The correction may then deepen to the 6,350 level.
On the contrary, a close above the moving averages suggests that the index may remain inside the 6,550 to 7,002 range for a while longer.
US Dollar Index price prediction
The US Dollar Index (DXY) reached the 100.54 resistance on Friday, which is a critical level to watch out for.
The upsloping 20-day EMA (98.76) and the RSI near the overbought zone suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers thrust the price above the 100.54 level, the index might start a new uptrend to the 102 level and later to the 103.54 level.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down sharply from the current level and breaks below the moving averages, it suggests that the index may remain inside the 95.50 to 100.54 range for some more time.
Bitcoin price prediction
BTC continued its upward march and reached the $74,508 resistance, where the bears are expected to mount a strong defense.
The 20-day EMA ($70,028) has started to turn up, and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that the buyers are attempting to take charge. A close above the $74,508 level will complete a bullish ascending triangle pattern, opening the gates for a rally to $84,000. Such a move suggests that the downtrend may be over.
Sellers will have to pull the BTC price below the moving averages to weaken the bulls. The BTC/USDT pair may then slump to the support line. A close below the support line tilts the advantage back in favor of the bears.
Ether price prediction
Ether’s (ETH) consolidation between $1,750 and $2,111 resolved to the upside with a breakout on Sunday.
The moving averages are on the verge of a bullish crossover, and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating that buyers are back in the game. The ETH price may rally to $2,600 and then to $3,450. Such a move suggests that the ETH/USDT pair may have bottomed out at $1,747.
The 20-day EMA ($2,072) is the vital support to watch out for on the downside. A close below the 20-day EMA signals that the bears are active at higher levels. The pair may then tumble to $1,916.
BNB price prediction
BNB (BNB) closed above the $670 resistance on Sunday, but the bulls are struggling to sustain the higher levels.
The 20-day EMA ($646) is the critical support to watch out for on the downside. If the price bounces off the 20-day EMA with strength, the BNB/USDT pair may rally to $730 and subsequently to $790.
This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the BNB price continues lower and breaks below the 20-day EMA. That may keep the pair range-bound between $570 and $670 for a while longer.
XRP price prediction
XRP (XRP) has risen above the 50-day simple moving average ($1.46), indicating sustained buying by the bulls.
If the XRP price closes above the 50-day SMA, the next stop is likely to be the breakdown level of $1.61. If the price turns down from $1.61 but finds support at the 20-day EMA ($1.41), it suggests a bullish sentiment. The XRP/USDT pair may then climb to the downtrend line.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it signals that the bears are selling on minor rallies. That may retain the price inside the descending channel pattern.
Solana price prediction
Solana (SOL) has reached the breakdown level of $95, which is a critical overhead resistance to keep an eye on.
If buyers overcome the barrier, the SOL/USDT pair may surge to $117. Sellers are expected to pose a substantial challenge at $117, but on the way down, if the bulls maintain the SOL price above $95, it suggests a positive sentiment. That increases the possibility of a rally to $147.
Instead, if the price turns down sharply from the current level and breaks below the 20-day EMA ($87), it suggests that the pair may extend its stay inside the $76 to $95 range for some more time.
The DOGE/USDT pair may rally to the breakdown level of $0.12, where the bears are expected to sell aggressively. If the DOGE price turns down sharply from $0.12, it points to a possible range formation. The pair may swing between $0.09 and $0.12 for a few days.
On the other hand, a break and close above the $0.12 resistance signals that the bulls are back in the driver’s seat. That clears the path for a rally to the $0.16 level, which is expected to behave as a stiff resistance.
Cardano price prediction
Cardano (ADA) has surged above the 50-day SMA ($0.28), indicating that the bulls are attempting a comeback.
The bears are expected to vigorously defend the downtrend line, but if the bulls prevail, the ADA/USDT pair may signal a short-term trend change. The ADA price may rally to $0.37 and then to $0.44.
Contrarily, if the price turns down sharply from the downtrend line and breaks below the moving averages, it suggests that the pair may continue to oscillate inside the channel for a few more days.
Hyperliquid price prediction
Sellers attempted to pull Hyperliquid (HYPE) back below the breakout level of $36.77 on Sunday, but the bulls held their ground.
That suggests the bulls are striving to flip the $36.77 level into support. If they manage to do that, the HYPE/USDT pair may ascend to $43 and then to $50.
The first support on the downside is at $36.77 and then at the 20-day EMA ($33.95). Sellers will have to tug the HYPE price below the 50-day SMA ($31.56) to suggest that the market has rejected the breakout above $36.77. The pair may then plummet to $29.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Bitcoin achieved new six-week highs at the week’s first Wall Street open, but analysis stayed risk-off, arguing that the long-term BTC price downtrend was still in place.
Bitcoin (BTC) hit $74,600 at Monday’s Wall Street open as US stocks gained on Iran war deescalation signals.
Key points:
Bitcoin sets another local high near $75,000 after a solid weekly close reclaimed key trend lines.
Oil and gold both decline as tensions over the Strait of Hormuz ease slightly.
Bitcoin traders are in no mood to trust the current “relief bounce.”
BTC price rises with stocks amid oil pressure
Data from TradingView showed new six-week highs for Bitcoin while stocks opened up 1.5% as oil and gold fell.
Geopolitical headlines steered market moves, with the US saying that it would allow Iranian oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Previously, President Donald Trump pledged to coordinate efforts to reopen the key oil shipping route fully.
As a result, WTI crude oil fell below $100 per barrel, while gold retested the $5,000 mark as support, meeting its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time since early February.
“BTC and ETH have pushed above $74k and $2,270 respectively, while equities and gold remain under pressure,” trading company QCP Capital wrote in its latest “Market Color” analysis.
“If this pattern persists, it would be a late-quarter plot twist, given crypto’s underdog status and its familiar habit of correlating with traditional assets mostly on the way down.”
BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD with 50-day SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
QCP mentioned the concept of Bitcoin as a competitor for gold during periods of uncertainty.
“Recent price action suggests the narrative of BTC as a ‘digital safe haven’ or ‘geopolitical hedge’ may be resurfacing, with markets stress-testing that thesis in real time,” it added.
Traders still skeptical on Bitcoin “relief bounce”
After an impressive weekly close, BTC/USD regained key trend lines as support, but traders remained concerned that the latest breakout attempt could collapse.
Trader Daan Crypto Trades focused on the latest “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures created over the weekend near $71,500.
“Good to keep an eye on in case price starts trading into that area. This level also roughly lines up with the range high,” he told X followers about the latest trip past $74,000.
“So as always, not a given that price gets there, but if it does, it’s often good to watch as it can act as a local reversal zone.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
A temporary 2.85% pricing discrepancy in wstETH collateral triggered about $27 million in liquidations on Aave, showing how even small technical issues can have major financial consequences in automated DeFi lending systems.
The liquidation wave occurred because Aave’s system briefly valued wstETH at about 1.19 ETH instead of its market value near 1.23 ETH, making some borrowing positions appear undercollateralized.
Price oracles are critical infrastructure in DeFi because they feed external market data to smart contracts, determining collateral values, loan health and when automated liquidations should occur.
The root cause was not a faulty price feed but a misconfiguration in Aave’s CAPO risk oracle system, where outdated smart contract parameters created a temporary cap on the token’s exchange rate.
Decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols use automated logic to handle everything from collateral management to risk assessment. While this setup enables a truly open and permissionless financial system, it also means that minor technical issues can snowball into significant financial disruptions.
According to risk monitoring firm Chaos Labs, a market downturn on March 10, 2026, triggered approximately $27 million in liquidations for Aave borrowers, clearly illustrating this vulnerability. In a single 24-hour window, approximately $27 million in user positions were liquidated. Surprisingly, this was not caused by a massive market sell-off but by a brief 2.85% price discrepancy affecting wrapped staked ETH (wstETH) collateral.
This event serves as a stark reminder of how critical price oracles and robust risk management frameworks are to the stability of the DeFi ecosystem.
The article explains how a 2.85% pricing discrepancy in wstETH collateral triggered about $27 million in liquidations on the Aave lending protocol. It highlights how oracle configurations, smart contract parameters and automated liquidation mechanisms can amplify small pricing errors in DeFi markets.
A sudden surge in liquidations
When a wave of liquidations occurred across Aave markets, Chaos Labs, which tracks lending protocols for unusual activity, quickly identified and flagged the surge. Early speculation among observers pointed to a possible malfunction in the price oracles, which may have mispriced collateral assets on the platform.
Price oracles serve as critical bridges, supplying external market prices to onchain applications. In lending protocols like Aave, these feeds determine whether a borrower’s collateral still sufficiently covers their loan. When the collateral value falls below the required threshold, the system triggers the automatic liquidation of the position.
The asset at the center of this event was wstETH, a token commonly used as collateral across DeFi lending ecosystems.
Did you know? Liquidations on lending protocols like Aave often happen faster than traditional margin calls. Because DeFi markets operate 24/7 through automated smart contracts, positions can be liquidated within seconds once collateral ratios fall below the required thresholds.
What is wstETH?
wstETH, or wrapped staked Ether (ETH), is a token issued through the Lido protocol, a leading liquid staking protocol.
When users stake Ether via Lido, they initially receive stETH, which represents their staked ETH plus accrued staking rewards. To improve compatibility with various DeFi applications, stETH can be wrapped into wstETH.
Due to the ongoing accumulation of staking rewards, one wstETH generally holds a value slightly above one ETH. This makes it a particularly attractive and widely adopted form of collateral in DeFi lending markets.
The pricing discrepancy
During the liquidation wave, a mismatch appeared between wstETH’s actual market value and the valuation applied by Aave’s risk system. Aave’s algorithm priced wstETH at approximately 1.19 ETH, whereas the broader market valued it closer to 1.23 ETH.
This roughly 2.85% difference caused positions collateralized by wstETH to appear more undercollateralized than they actually were.
As a result, certain borrowing positions fell below their required safety thresholds, triggering Aave’s automated liquidation process.
Why price oracles are critical in DeFi
Price oracles are essential infrastructure in DeFi. Blockchains cannot natively fetch real-world market data, so oracle services supply external price feeds for assets. These feeds directly influence:
A reported drop in collateral price can lead the protocol to deem a loan insufficiently backed, prompting the automatic liquidation of the position.
Because this mechanism operates algorithmically, even minor pricing deviations can cascade into substantial consequences.
Did you know? A small price discrepancy can have outsized effects in DeFi. Even a brief deviation in an oracle or market price of just a few percent can trigger cascading liquidations. This is especially true when many borrowers use highly leveraged positions backed by volatile crypto collateral.
The real cause: CAPO risk-oracle misconfiguration
Deeper analysis confirmed that Aave’s primary price oracle was operating normally.
The root issue instead lay in the correlated assets price oracle (CAPO) risk oracle module, an additional protective layer applied to select assets.
CAPO is specifically designed to cap the rate at which the value of yield-bearing tokens like wstETH can rise. This safeguard helps protect the protocol against abrupt price surges or potential oracle exploits.
In this case, however, a configuration inconsistency within CAPO triggered the problem.
Technical breakdown of the error
Chaos Labs disclosed that the fault originated from outdated parameters stored in a smart contract.
Two key values had fallen out of alignment:
Because these were not refreshed in tandem, CAPO computed a temporary ceiling on the allowable exchange rate that sat below the prevailing market value.
This caused the protocol to undervalue wstETH by approximately 2.85% relative to its prevailing market price.
Did you know? Aave relies on price oracles, which are data feeds that supply real time asset prices to smart contracts. If these feeds briefly reflect unusual market prices from exchanges, the protocol automatically recalculates collateral values and may trigger liquidations.
The liquidation cascade
As soon as collateral ratios fell below the required thresholds, Aave’s automated liquidation engine activated.
Liquidators, typically high-speed trading bots, stepped in by repaying a portion of the borrower’s debt and, in return, acquiring the underlying collateral at a built-in discount.
Liquidators ultimately extracted around 499 ETH in combined profits and liquidation bonuses, capitalizing on the short-lived pricing misalignment.
No bad debt incurred by the protocol
Even with the volume of liquidations, Aave remained at zero bad debt. Aave founder Stani Kulechov stated that there “was no impact to the Aave Protocol.”
Chaos Labs said the platform’s core risk and liquidation mechanisms functioned as designed once positions breached their thresholds. Once positions breached their safety thresholds, liquidations proceeded according to design.
The disruption therefore remained confined to affected individual borrowers and did not threaten the protocol’s overall solvency or stability. The resulting artificial depression in collateral value pushed several borrowing positions below their liquidation thresholds.
Aave governance proposed compensating affected users through refunds funded by recoveries and decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) treasury support. This approach aligns with a shifting pattern in DeFi governance, where protocols increasingly view technical incidents as systemic infrastructure risks. They may move to compensate impacted users rather than leave them to bear permanent losses.
A reminder of oracle risk in DeFi
The event underscores that oracle design remains one of the most vital and vulnerable elements of DeFi infrastructure.
Even minor configuration mistakes can trigger outsized consequences when automated mechanisms oversee billions of dollars in collateral value.
Comparable episodes have occurred on other DeFi platforms. For example, a misconfigured oracle once temporarily valued Coinbase’s wrapped staked ETH (cbETH) at around $1 instead of approximately $2,200, sparking widespread disruption.
Such cases highlight the ongoing challenges of maintaining reliable, accurate price feeds in decentralized financial systems.
wstETH and Lido were not responsible
Contributors from the Lido ecosystem made it clear that the liquidations did not stem from any malfunction or flaw in wstETH itself.
The token operated normally throughout the event, and the underlying Lido staking protocol remained fully functional and unaffected.
The primary issue appears to have stemmed from how the Aave lending protocol processed and interpreted price data through its own risk management configuration.
Lessons for the future of DeFi
As decentralized finance continues to scale, protocols are incorporating increasingly sophisticated risk management systems to accommodate yield-bearing assets such as wstETH.
These assets present unique pricing challenges because their value increases steadily over time through accumulating staking rewards.
Effective risk models must therefore properly handle:
Even minor misalignments in these elements can escalate into widespread liquidation events.
Cointelegraph maintains full editorial independence. The selection, commissioning and publication of Features and Magazine content are not influenced by advertisers, partners or commercial relationships.
The ETH/USD pair pierced through the pennant’s upper trend line at $2,100, jumping 9.8% to a six-week high of $2,287 on Monday. Its breakout came alongside a rise in trading volume, implying stronger conviction behind the rally.
The price also reclaimed two key support lines in the name of the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA, red line) and the 50-day EMA (yellow line) at $2,072 and $2,210, respectively.
That simultaneously increased the odds of a symmetrical-triangle bullish reversal.
A symmetrical triangle forms when price makes lower highs and higher lows, compressing into a tightening range. It resolves when the price breaks either of the trendlines and moves by as much as the pattern’s maximum height.
In Ether’s case, the measured move above the upper trend line points to about $2,850, 26% above the current price. The level aligns with the 200-day EMA (the purple line), as shown in the chart above.
Ether’s next hurdle is the 100-day EMA (blue) near $2,500.
As Cointelegraph reported, a rejection there would weaken the breakout and raise the odds of a pullback.
Onchain data caps Ether’s upside at $2,800
ETH has been oscillating within a wide range defined by the realized price at $2,350 on the upside and on the downside at the lowest MVRV band of $1,650.
The chart below shows that the recent rebound off the lowest MVRV band mirrors the market structure observed in Q2 2022, where the price rallied past the realized price before being rejected by the first MVRV band just above.
This similarity reinforces the outlook that the current recovery attempt could be stopped around $2,650, where the first MVRV band sits above the realized price.
Glassnode’s Entity-Adjusted UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), showing at which prices the current set of ETH UTXOs were created, also revealed a dense supply zone at $2,770-$2,880 that has been gradually maturing into the long-term holder cohort. This is where investors acquired more than 7.9 million ETH.
This unresolved supply overhang remains a persistent source of sell pressure, likely to cap attempts around the $2,800 level.
ETH: Entity-Adjusted URPD. Source: Glassnode
Meanwhile, ETH’s cost-basis distribution heatmap shows a heavy accumulation near $2,800, where more than 3 million ETH were previously purchased, suggesting a potential pathway toward this level in the short term.
Polymarket’s odds of $2,800 ETH price in March rise
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market where users trade contracts on real-world outcomes, is showing a clear bullish shift for Ether in March.
Traders now assign 13% odds that ETH reaches $2,800 in March, a 10% increase over the last 24 hours. The $2,600 and $2,400 targets carry even stronger convictions at 32% and 69%, respectively.
ETH price targets for March. Source: Polymarket
At the same time, the odds of the ETH price reaching $1,800 and $1,600 in March are priced lower than before, suggesting the crowd is trimming downside expectations.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
