Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has proposed a plan to address four areas of the network he sees as most vulnerable to quantum attacks.
Quantum computing and crypto have been in the headlines recently as concerns mount over Bitcoin and other blockchains’ resistance to quantum-capable supercomputers.
Buterin posted his quantum resistance roadmap for Ethereum on Thursday, stating that the four areas are: validator signatures, data storage, user account signatures, and zero-knowledge proofs.
He said that replacing the current BLS (Boneh-Lynn-Shacham) consensus signatures with “Lean” quantum-safe hash-based signatures would fix that component. The challenge is selecting an appropriate hash function, since the choice would likely remain in place long-term.
“This may be ‘Ethereum’s last hash function,’ so it’s important to choose wisely,” he said.
Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake proposed “Lean Ethereum,” a plan to make the network quantum-secure, in August 2025.
Quantum-safe data storage and accounts
Regarding data storage, or “blobs”, Ethereum currently uses a system called KZG (Kate-Zaverucha-Goldberg) for storing and verifying data.
The plan is to swap this out for STARKs (Zero-Knowledge Scalable Transparent Argument of Knowledge), which are quantum-resistant. “It’s manageable, but there’s a lot of engineering work to do,” said Buterin.
The third challenge is user accounts. Ethereum currently uses ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm) signatures, which are standard cryptographic keys. The fix is to upgrade the network so that accounts can use any signature scheme, including “lattice-based” quantum-resistant ones.
However, quantum-safe signatures are significantly more computationally intensive and would consume more gas.
“The long-term fix is protocol-layer recursive signature and proof aggregation, which could reduce these gas overheads to near-zero,” he said.
Quantum-resistant proofs are very expensive
Quantum-resistant proofs are extremely expensive to run onchain so “the solution again is protocol-layer recursive signature and proof aggregation,” said Buterin.
Instead of verifying every signature and proof individually onchain, a single master proof or “validation frame” would verify thousands of them at once, keeping costs near zero.
“This way, a block could ‘contain’ a thousand validation frames, each of which contains either a 3kB signature or even a 256kB proof,” he explained.
Buterin floated the concept of a recursive-STARK-based bandwidth-efficient mempool in January. Source: ETHresearch
Buterin also commented on the Ethereum Foundation’s “Strawmap” on Thursday, stating that he expects to see “progressive decreases of both slot time and finality time.”
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Cryptocurrency investors accused quantitative trading company Jane Street of pressuring Bitcoin’s price with a daily, programmatic sell-off at the US market open, but market analysts and data suggest the pattern is not consistent, and no single company can force Bitcoin into a prolonged bear market.
The claims surged online a day after Terraform Labs’ court-appointed administrator sued Jane Street, alleging insider trading tied to transactions that worsened the collapse of Terra’s algorithmic stablecoin ecosystem in May 2022.
Several market watchers, including crypto influencer Justin Bechler, have argued that Jane Street’s holding of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust exchange-traded fund (ETF), known as IBIT, could mask a net short Bitcoin position through hedges that do not appear in public filings. Bechler argued that Jane Street conducted coordinated algorithmic selling of Bitcoin at 10 a.m. Eastern Standard Time daily, manipulating the Bitcoin (BTC) price to buy the ETF at a discount.
”When Jane Street reports holding $790 million in IBIT shares, the filing tells you nothing about whether those shares are hedged by puts, offset by short futures, or wrapped in a collar that makes the firm’s net Bitcoin exposure zero or even negative,” wrote Bechler, adding that the ”actual position could be a massive short that looks like a long because the offsetting half of the trade is invisible under current disclosure rules.”
CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, cautioned that the activity Bechler described is not unique to one company. He said buying spot exposure while selling futures is a common approach for delta-neutral funds seeking to capture spreads rather than directional price moves.
Jane Street’s latest 13-F filing also disclosed holdings in Strategy, as well as sizable positions in Bitcoin mining companies Bitfarms, Cipher Mining and Hut 8.
The online narrative centers on the idea that Bitcoin regularly drops shortly after 10 a.m. Eastern Standard Time, a window that overlaps with the start of US trading. Onchain analyst Nonzee posted an hourly Bitcoin chart on Wednesday and claimed Jane Street had been “manipulating” the market at that time for months.
Crypto market watcher account Whale Factor claimed Bitcoin has consistently registered a 2% to 3% daily drop minutes after the US open, alleging a programmatic manipulation ongoing since early November.
”Many traders point to Jane Street’s massive $2.5B+ position in BlackRock’s IBIT as the likely driver: engineered liquidity sweeps to accumulate spot #ETF’s at a discount,” said Whale Factor in a Dec. 9 X post.
Macro analyst Alex Krüger disputed the framing, sharing blockchain data pointing to Bitcoin recording cumulative returns of 0.9% in the 10 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. window since Jan. 1, claiming it was not a ”systemic dump.”
”Everyone says Bitcoin dumps at 10 AM every day. I pulled the data, and it’s not true,” wrote Krüger in a Thursday X post, adding that the ” 10 AM dump” theory is a broad risk-asset repricing that tracks the price performance of the Nasdaq stock index.
Analysts say one company can’t drive a bear market
Even if certain trading strategies amplify volatility around the US open, some market participants said it is unlikely that one entity can dominate a global market as deep and fragmented as Bitcoin.
”Regardless of whether market manipulation has taken place, Bitcoin’s price isn’t driven by just one firm, no matter how influential. It isn’t a memecoin,” said Nick Puckrin, the co-founder and lead market analyst at educational platform Coin Bureau.
”It’s understandable that investors with strong conviction in Bitcoin are looking for a villain during a major downturn. But the reality of Bitcoin market dynamics is much more nuanced.”
Puckrin said Bitcoin’s recent weakness is better explained by a mix of geopolitical uncertainty, global liquidity conditions and competition for investor attention from the fast-growing artificial intelligence sector.
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Telegram’s built-in crypto wallet has introduced a feature that allows users to earn returns on major cryptocurrencies inside the messaging app.
The update introduces vaults in TON Wallet, a self-custodial wallet integrated within Wallet in Telegram, enabling users to hold, send and earn on Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and Tether’s USDt (USDT) without leaving the chat interface, according to a Thursday announcement shared with Cointelegraph.
“At Wallet in Telegram, our mission is to transform digital assets from complex concepts into practical tools for everyday life,” said Andrew Rogozov, CEO of The Open Platform and Wallet in Telegram.
The system runs on decentralized finance (DeFi) infrastructure provided by lending network Morpho, the TON ecosystem’s execution layer TAC (TON Applications Chain) and strategy provider Re7. The tools operate in the background, while users interact with a simple interface similar to a typical app wallet, per the announcement.
Wallet in Telegram said the goal is to make earning on crypto easier for everyday users by removing the technical steps normally associated with DeFi services, which often require multiple wallets, network bridges and external applications.
The vault strategies generate variable returns and allow users to keep control of their funds through self-custody, the announcement said. USDT vaults offer dollar-denominated earning strategies with different risk levels, while BTC and ETH vaults extend the same functionality to two of the largest cryptocurrencies, according to the announcement.
“The goal is to make onchain yield accessible in the simplest possible way — directly inside a self-custodial wallet embedded in a mainstream consumer app. We’re lowering the barrier to DeFi strategies by packaging advanced yield strategies in a product that is native to Telegram,” a spokesperson for Wallet in Telegram told Cointelegraph.
Wallet in Telegram also plans to support direct deposits of native Bitcoin and Ether, which will automatically appear in wrapped form within the TON ecosystem to enable transfers and earning features.
Wallet in Telegram claims to have more than 150 million registered users.
TON launches crypto payments toolkit for merchants
Earlier this month, the TON Foundation introduced TON Pay, a payments software development kit that lets merchants and Telegram Mini App developers accept cryptocurrency directly within Telegram.
Telegram significantly increased its operating revenue in 2025, reporting $870 million in the first half of the year, a 65% increase from $525 million a year earlier. Roughly $300 million of the revenue came from exclusivity agreements tied to its associated cryptocurrency Toncoin (TON).
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
Indiana lawmakers sent a bill to Governor Mike Braun that would expand legal protections for cryptocurrency users and require certain state retirement and savings plans to offer a self-directed brokerage option with at least one crypto investment choice.
House Bill 1042 (HB1042) for the “regulation and investment of cryptocurrency” cleared the legislature on Wednesday, with 59 lawmakers voting in favor and 33 against, according to data from Legiscan.
The bill seeks to protect Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrency investor rights, ban discriminatory crypto taxes and open the door for digital asset holdings in state retirement plans.
The bill is headed to Braun for his signature. If signed, most provisions will take effect July 1, while the retirement-plan self-directed brokerage requirement would take effect later.
Indiana House Bill 1042, history. Source: Legiscan
A handful of US states have already signed crypto investor protection bills, including Oklahoma in November 2024 and Kentucky in March 2025.
Pennsylvania’s House Bill 2481 (HB2481) for crypto investor protection rights passed in October 2024 with strong bipartisan support, but has yet to be signed into law.
Indiana’s cryptocurrency rights bill stands out from the others as the only piece of legislation seeking to offer self-directed brokerage accounts to facilitate crypto retirement plans.
The bill would allow Indiana citizens to hold Bitcoin and digital assets as part of their retirement plans for the first time.
If signed, the bill would require certain state retirement and savings plans to offer self-directed brokerage accounts with at least one cryptocurrency investment option by July 1, 2027.
This would extend to the legislators’ defined contribution plan, the Hoosier START plan, specified public employees’ retirement funds and specified teachers’ retirement fund plans, among others.
Indiana House Bill 1042. Source: Legiscan
Moreover, the bill includes other key provisions that protect the rights of crypto investors from future regulatory crackdowns.
Indiana’s bill would restrict state and local public agencies from adopting or enforcing rules that would prohibit lawful crypto payments, self-custody or mining, subject to the bill’s carve-outs.
Under the legislation, public agencies, excluding the Department of Financial Institutions, will be prohibited from adopting regulations that prohibit an individual’s ability to accept digital asset payment for legal goods and services, take custody of their crypto holdings or impose taxes and fees on crypto payments and self-custodied holdings.
The bill also prohibits the enforcement of regulations that would prohibit crypto mining operations for businesses or individuals.
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
AAVE trades at $116.24 with analysts targeting $137.53 by February 28. Technical indicators show neutral RSI at 42.62, suggesting potential upside momentum as price approaches key resistance levels.
While specific analyst predictions from major KOLs are currently limited, recent market analysis provides valuable insights into AAVE’s trajectory. According to CoinCodex’s February 23rd assessment, AAVE is expected to reach $137.53 by February 28, 2026, representing a potential 19.78% price increase over the next five days.
Earlier analysis from February 20th highlighted that AAVE faced some obstacles, with the DeFi token experiencing a 3.57% decline that underperformed both the broader cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin. However, technical recovery patterns suggest these headwinds may be temporary.
On-chain data suggests that DeFi protocols like Aave continue to show resilience despite short-term price volatility, with lending and borrowing metrics remaining robust across major blockchain networks.
AAVE Technical Analysis Breakdown
Currently trading at $116.24, AAVE shows mixed technical signals that lean toward potential recovery. The RSI reading of 42.62 places the token in neutral territory, suggesting neither oversold nor overbought conditions – a position that often precedes directional moves.
The MACD configuration presents interesting dynamics with the MACD line at -5.0678 and signal line also at -5.0678, resulting in a histogram reading of 0.0000. This convergence suggests bearish momentum may be weakening, potentially setting up for a bullish crossover.
Bollinger Bands analysis reveals AAVE trading at 0.41 position between the bands, with the upper band at $130.14 and lower band at $106.40. The current price sits below the middle band (SMA 20) at $118.27, but the positioning suggests room for upward movement without hitting overbought conditions.
Moving averages paint a complex picture: while short-term SMAs (7-day at $117.11 and 20-day at $118.27) trade relatively close to current levels, longer-term averages show significant gaps. The 50-day SMA at $138.78 aligns closely with analyst targets, while the 200-day SMA at $211.63 represents longer-term recovery potential.
Aave Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
The path to $137.53 requires AAVE to break through immediate resistance at $122.39, followed by strong resistance at $128.53. A successful break above $128.53 would likely trigger momentum toward the $137-$140 range, supported by the 50-day SMA at $138.78.
Technical confirmation for this Aave forecast would include RSI climbing above 50, MACD histogram turning positive, and sustained trading above the Bollinger Band middle line. Daily volume exceeding the current $23.7 million would provide additional bullish validation.
The bullish case gains strength if AAVE can reclaim the $118.27 level (20-day SMA) as support, potentially setting up a run toward the upper Bollinger Band at $130.14.
Bearish Scenario
Downside risks emerge if AAVE fails to hold immediate support at $112.05. A breakdown below this level could accelerate selling toward strong support at $107.85, representing the lower Bollinger Band region.
The bearish scenario would be confirmed by RSI dropping below 40, sustained MACD divergence, and daily closes below the 20-day moving average. Given the Average True Range of $8.38, volatility could amplify any downward moves.
Critical support failure at $107.85 could open the door to deeper corrections, though such scenarios would likely present attractive entry opportunities for longer-term investors.
Should You Buy AAVE? Entry Strategy
Based on current technical positioning, the optimal AAVE price prediction strategy involves staged entries. Conservative investors might wait for a clear break above $118.27 (20-day SMA) with volume confirmation before establishing positions.
Aggressive traders could consider entries near current levels around $116-$117, with stop-losses below $112.05 to limit downside risk. The risk-reward ratio appears favorable given the proximity to support levels and analyst targets suggesting 19% upside potential.
For those following the $137.53 target, position sizing should account for the daily ATR of $8.38, allowing for normal volatility without premature stop-loss triggers. A tiered approach with initial entries at current levels and additional buying on any dip toward $112-$114 could optimize entry pricing.
Conclusion
The AAVE price prediction points toward moderate bullish potential over the next week, with the $137.53 target representing realistic upside based on current technical setup. While momentum indicators show neutral to slightly bearish readings, the proximity to support levels and analyst forecasts suggest favorable risk-reward dynamics.
This Aave forecast carries moderate confidence given the neutral RSI positioning and convergent MACD readings that often precede directional moves. However, investors should remain cautious of broader market conditions that could impact DeFi token performance.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are inherently speculative and subject to high volatility. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
Bitcoin bulls have pushed the price above $69,000, signaling solid dip buying at lower levels.
Several major altcoins have turned up sharply, suggesting that selling pressure is reducing.
Bitcoin (BTC) bulls purchased Tuesday’s dip and are attempting to sustain the price above $69,000 on Wednesday. According to SoSoValue data, BTC exchange-traded funds recorded net inflows of $257.7 million on Tuesday, the largest inflows since Feb. 6. That suggests investors are viewing the dips near $60,000 as a buying opportunity.
Santiment said in a post on X that BTC’s correlation with stocks has broken down in the past six months. The S&P 500 rose 7% during the period, while BTC fell 43%. However, the onchain data provider added that the disconnection is unlikely to continue. If BTC follows its historical pattern of tracking equities during economic expansions, then “it may have significant room to catch up.”
Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView
Not everyone is bullish on BTC’s prospects in the short term. Glassnode said in a post on X that BTC’s realized profit/loss ratio (90-day moving average) slipped below 1. Historically, breaks below 1 have resulted in at least six months of loss realization before the level was reclaimed.
Could BTC and select major altcoins break above their overhead resistance levels? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price prediction
BTC has risen sharply from the $62,510 level on Tuesday, indicating that the bulls are vigorously defending the $60,000 level.
Buyers will attempt to thrust the Bitcoin price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($69,375). If they succeed, the BTC/USDT pair may rally to the breakdown level of $74,508, where the bears are again expected to mount a strong defense.
Sellers will have to successfully defend the 20-day EMA if they want to retain the advantage. If the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, the $60,000 support may be at risk of breaking down. If that happens, the pair may plummet to $52,500.
Ether price prediction
Ether (ETH) turned up from the $1,800 level on Tuesday, indicating that the bulls are attempting to retain the price inside the $1,750 to $2,111 range.
The relief rally is expected to face selling at the $2,111 level. If the Ether price turns down sharply from $2,111, the ETH/USDT pair may extend its stay inside the range for a few more days.
Alternatively, if buyers propel the price above the $2,111 level, it suggests that the bears are losing their grip. The pair may then surge to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($2,540), where the bears are again expected to step in.
XRP price prediction
XRP (XRP) turned up sharply and has reached the 20-day EMA ($1.46), indicating that the bulls are attempting a comeback.
If the XRP price closes above the 20-day EMA, the XRP/USDT pair may rally to the 50-day SMA ($1.70) and eventually to the downtrend line. Buyers will have to clear the hurdle at the downtrend line to signal a potential trend change.
Sellers are likely to have other plans. They will attempt to defend the moving averages and pull the price below the support line. If they can pull it off, the pair may nosedive to the Feb. 6 low of $1.11 and then $1.
BNB price prediction
BNB (BNB) has risen sharply from $577, indicating that the bulls are aggressively defending the $570 level.
Buyers will have to swiftly drive the price above the 20-day EMA ($641) to strengthen their position. If they manage to do that, the BNB/USDT pair may rise to $669 and eventually to $730.
Contrary to this assumption, if the BNB price turns down and breaks below $570, it indicates that the bears are in control. The pair may then resume the downtrend toward the psychological level at $500.
Solana price prediction
Solana (SOL) dipped below the $76 support on Tuesday, but the bears could not maintain the lower levels.
The SOL/USDT pair is attempting a recovery, which is expected to face selling at the 20-day EMA ($87). If the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, the possibility of a break below the $76 level increases. The Solana price may then tumble to the Feb. 6 low of $67.
Instead, if bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the relief rally may reach the $95 level. This is a crucial level to watch out for, as a close above $95 suggests that the bulls are back in the game. The pair may then rally toward $117.
Dogecoin price prediction
Dogecoin (DOGE) turned up sharply from the $0.09 level, and the bulls are attempting to drive the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.10).
Sellers are unlikely to give up easily and will strive to defend the 20-day EMA. If the Dogecoin price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it increases the likelihood of a drop to the $0.08 support. Buyers are expected to fiercely defend the $0.08 level, as a close below it may start the next leg of the downtrend to the $0.06 level.
Buyers will have to maintain the price above the 20-day EMA to indicate that the bears are losing their grip. The DOGE/USDT pair may then march toward the breakdown level of $0.12.
Bitcoin Cash price prediction
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) turned down sharply from the 50-day SMA ($564) and fell below the $500 support on Monday.
The 20-day EMA has started to turn down, and the relative strength index (RSI) is in negative territory, indicating an advantage to the bears. That suggests the relief rally to the 20-day EMA is likely to be sold into. If the Bitcoin Cash price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the possibility of a drop to the $443 level increases.
The first sign of strength will be a close above the moving averages. The BCH/USDT pair may then rise to $580 and subsequently to $600.
Buyers are striving to push the price back above the moving averages but are likely to face stiff resistance from the bears. If the Hyperliquid price turns down from the moving averages, the HYPE/USDT pair may drop to the solid support at $20.82.
Contrarily, if the price closes above the 20-day EMA ($29.31), it suggests buying at lower levels. The pair may then ascend to $32.50 and later to the stiff resistance at $36.77. The next trending move is expected to begin on a close above $36.77 or below $20.82.
Cardano price prediction
The bears failed to pull Cardano (ADA) to the support line of the descending channel pattern, indicating a lack of selling at lower levels.
The buyers are attempting to make a comeback by sustaining the Cardano price above the 20-day EMA ($0.28). If they manage to do that, the ADA/USDT pair may rally to the downtrend line.
If the price turns down sharply from the downtrend line and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it suggests that the pair may remain inside the channel for a while. The bulls will have to secure a close above the downtrend line to gain the upper hand.
Monero price prediction
Monero (XMR) fell below the immediate support at $309 on Monday, but the bears could not sustain the lower levels.
The bulls are attempting a relief rally, which is expected to face selling at the 20-day EMA ($346) and then at the breakdown level of $360. If the Monero price turns down from the overhead resistance, it suggests a range-bound action between $360 and $300 for some time.
The advantage will tilt in favor of the bulls if they push and maintain the XMR/USDT pair above the $360 level. If they do that, the pair may surge toward the 50-day SMA ($435).
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
A governance dispute inside the Aave ecosystem intensified after two detailed reports offered contrasting interpretations of the protocol’s past funding and contributions ahead of a vote on a proposed $50 million package for Aave Labs.
Aave Chan Initiative (ACI) founder Marc Zeller on Wednesday published what he called a transparency report reviewing Aave Labs’ historical funding and applied a return-on-investment framework to past DAO grants. Hours earlier, Aave Labs released its own contributions report outlining its role in building the protocol since 2017.
The dispute centers on the “Aave Will Win” framework, a proposal asking tokenholders to approve funding worth up to $42.5 million in stablecoins and 75,000 AAVE (AAVE) tokens. In return, Aave Labs would route 100% of revenue from Aave-branded products to the Aave DAO treasury under a DAO-funded operating model, according to the proposal and related forum posts.
The debate has broadened beyond the size of the funding request to include questions about accountability standards, revenue attribution and who maintains the protocol’s core infrastructure.
Zeller’s report said Aave Labs has received about $86 million in lifetime capitalization, including its 2017 initial coin offering (ICO) proceeds, venture funding and DAO payments.
He argued that future DAO grants should be evaluated using measurable revenue impact and clearer disclosure standards.
ACI, a service provider to the Aave DAO and not a neutral party in the debate, questioned whether governance votes should be unbundled to separate funding, revenue alignment and V4 ratification.
Zeller wrote that funding decisions should be tied to performance benchmarks and transparent reporting.
Aave Labs, in its contributions report, highlighted its role in designing and shipping Aave V1, V2 and V3, and highlighted features it said underpin the protocol’s current revenue model, including flash loans, the Safety Module and Efficiency Mode.
Aave Labs argued that counting governance proposals or forum posts does not reflect the full scope of research, development, security and infrastructure work required to maintain a protocol used by millions of users.
Under the “Aave Will Win” framework, Aave Labs would transition to a DAO-funded operating model while directing product-level revenue, including from aave.com and planned consumer-facing products, to the DAO.
The proposal also seeks ratification of Aave V4 as the protocol’s long-term technical foundation and outlines plans for a new foundation to steward the Aave brand.
Some community members have previously raised concerns about the size of the funding package and the inclusion of 75,000 AAVE tokens, which carry voting power.
On Feb. 13, critics called for clearer definitions of revenue and greater transparency around governance holdings.
The Snapshot vote, scheduled for Thursday, is an initial offchain vote that gauges community sentiment before any binding onchain proposal is submitted.
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
Bitcoin’s recovery Wednesday aligns closely with similar rebounds in the US stock market, with AI and tech stocks leading the market higher.
Source: The Kobeissi Letter
The tech-focused Nasdaq led the recovery with 1.05% daily gains, while the S&P 500 rose 0.68%. The Dow locked in a 421-point gain, closing the trading day on Tuesday 0.86% higher.
The swift recovery of US equity markets appears to have played a role in easing negative pressure on crypto investors looking to cut risk asset exposure.
This is evidenced by the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index, a metric that tracks the price difference between BTC on Coinbase and Binance, which has flipped positive for the first time since Jan. 15.
This means “US buyers are stepping in,” said analyst Nic in a post on Wednesday, adding that the index needs to stay positive to ensure sustained buying pressure.
Bitcoin, which is often viewed as a risk asset in the short term, has frequently moved in tandem with the stock market, particularly the S&P 500.
The past six months have seen a sustained period of this correlation breaking. The daily correlation coefficient index between BTC price and the US benchmark index, the S&P 500 index, is currently 0.32, and -0.45 with gold.
Bitcoin vs. S&P 500’s and gold daily correlation coefficient. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
“Since late August, gold has surged +51%, the S&P 500 has gained +7%, and Bitcoin has fallen -43%,” onchain data provider Santiment said in a recent post on X.
This marks the weakest correlation between Bitcoin and stocks since the FTX chaos in late 2022.
“Historically, when an asset that is usually correlated breaks away in this dramatic fashion, it typically does not stay disconnected forever,” Santiment said, adding:
“In the long term, this unusual separation actually argues for significant upside for Bitcoin and altcoins.”
Bitcoin correlation with stocks and gold. Source: Santiment
If Bitcoin returns to its historical pattern of tracking equities during economic expansions, “it may have significant room to catch up,” Santiment concluded.
This view was echoed by the founder and CIO of trading company QCP Capital, Darius Sit, who argued that the “Bitcoin vs. gold” debate is often misread as a price contest, when the “more important driver is liquidity and market structure.”
The divergence between stocks and BTC “reflects position unwinds and leverage-driven flows, not a failure of Bitcoin’s longer-term narrative,” Sit said, adding:
“Bitcoin still behaves like a long-term inflation hedge and an increasingly legible form of collateral.”
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s adoption by institutions, banks, merchants, public companies and nation-states surged in 2025, confirming it as a maturing asset class for investors.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Bitcoin’s recovery Wednesday aligns closely with similar rebounds in the US stock market, with AI and tech stocks leading the market higher.
Source: The Kobeissi Letter
The tech-focused Nasdaq led the recovery with 1.05% daily gains, while the S&P 500 rose 0.68%. The Dow locked in a 421-point gain, closing the trading day on Tuesday 0.86% higher.
The swift recovery of US equity markets appears to have played a role in easing negative pressure on crypto investors looking to cut risk asset exposure.
This is evidenced by the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index, a metric that tracks the price difference between BTC on Coinbase and Binance, which has flipped positive for the first time since Jan. 15.
This means “US buyers are stepping in,” said analyst Nic in a post on Wednesday, adding that the index needs to stay positive to ensure sustained buying pressure.
Bitcoin, which is often viewed as a risk asset in the short term, has frequently moved in tandem with the stock market, particularly the S&P 500.
The past six months have seen a sustained period of this correlation breaking. The daily correlation coefficient index between BTC price and the US benchmark index, the S&P 500 index, is currently 0.32, and -0.45 with gold.
Bitcoin vs. S&P 500’s and gold daily correlation coefficient. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
“Since late August, gold has surged +51%, the S&P 500 has gained +7%, and Bitcoin has fallen -43%,” onchain data provider Santiment said in a recent post on X.
This marks the weakest correlation between Bitcoin and stocks since the FTX chaos in late 2022.
“Historically, when an asset that is usually correlated breaks away in this dramatic fashion, it typically does not stay disconnected forever,” Santiment said, adding:
“In the long term, this unusual separation actually argues for significant upside for Bitcoin and altcoins.”
Bitcoin correlation with stocks and gold. Source: Santiment
If Bitcoin returns to its historical pattern of tracking equities during economic expansions, “it may have significant room to catch up,” Santiment concluded.
This view was echoed by the founder and CIO of trading company QCP Capital, Darius Sit, who argued that the “Bitcoin vs. gold” debate is often misread as a price contest, when the “more important driver is liquidity and market structure.”
The divergence between stocks and BTC “reflects position unwinds and leverage-driven flows, not a failure of Bitcoin’s longer-term narrative,” Sit said, adding:
“Bitcoin still behaves like a long-term inflation hedge and an increasingly legible form of collateral.”
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s adoption by institutions, banks, merchants, public companies and nation-states surged in 2025, confirming it as a maturing asset class for investors.
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Anthropic releases third version of Responsible Scaling Policy, separating company commitments from industry-wide recommendations after 2.5 years of testing.
Anthropic has released the third iteration of its Responsible Scaling Policy, marking a significant restructuring of how the AI company approaches catastrophic risk mitigation after two and a half years of real-world implementation.
The update, published February 24, 2026, introduces three major changes: a clear separation between what Anthropic can achieve alone versus what requires industry-wide action, a new Frontier Safety Roadmap with public accountability metrics, and mandatory external review of Risk Reports under certain conditions.
What Actually Changed
The most notable shift? Anthropic is now openly admitting that some safety measures simply cannot be implemented by a single company. The previous RSP’s higher-tier safeguards (ASL-4 and beyond) were left intentionally vague—turns out that wasn’t just caution, it was because achieving them unilaterally may be impossible.
A RAND report cited by Anthropic states that “SL5” security standards aimed at stopping top-tier cyber threats are “currently not possible” and “will likely require assistance from the national security community.”
Rather than water down these requirements to make compliance easy, Anthropic chose to restructure entirely. The new RSP now explicitly maps out two tracks: commitments the company will meet regardless of external factors, and recommendations it believes the entire AI industry needs to adopt.
The Honest Assessment
Anthropic’s post-mortem on RSP versions 1 and 2 is refreshingly candid. What worked: the policy forced internal teams to treat safety as a launch requirement, and competitors like OpenAI and Google DeepMind adopted similar frameworks within months. ASL-3 safeguards were successfully activated in May 2025.
What didn’t work: capability thresholds proved far more ambiguous than anticipated. Biological risk assessment provides a telling example—models now pass most quick tests, making it hard to argue risks are low, but results aren’t definitive enough to prove risks are high either. By the time wet-lab trials complete, more powerful models have already shipped.
The political environment hasn’t helped. Federal safety-oriented discussions have stalled as policy focus shifted toward AI competitiveness and economic growth.
New Accountability Mechanisms
The Frontier Safety Roadmap introduces specific, publicly-graded goals including “moonshot R&D” projects for information security, automated red-teaming systems that exceed current bug bounty contributions, and comprehensive records of all critical AI development activities—analyzed by AI for insider threats.
Risk Reports will publish every 3-6 months, explaining how capabilities, threat models, and mitigations fit together. External reviewers with “unredacted or minimally-redacted access” will publicly critique Anthropic’s reasoning.
The company is already running pilots despite current models not yet triggering the external review requirement.
Industry Implications
This restructuring arrives as AI governance frameworks face increasing scrutiny. California’s SB 53, New York’s RAISE Act, and the EU AI Act’s Codes of Practice have all begun requiring frontier developers to publish catastrophic risk frameworks—requirements Anthropic addresses through its existing Frontier Compliance Framework.
Whether competitors follow Anthropic’s lead on separating unilateral commitments from industry recommendations remains to be seen. The approach essentially acknowledges that voluntary self-regulation has limits, while positioning the company to advocate for coordinated government action without appearing to demand rules it can’t follow itself.
For the broader AI sector, Anthropic’s transparent acknowledgment of what single companies cannot achieve alone may prove more influential than the technical policy details themselves.