Bitcoin’s (BTC) market is at a “crucial moment” after breaking key long-term support levels, coinciding with large BTC transfers from a digital asset treasury company to a major exchange.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin risks plunging into a bear market if it breaks below the True Market Mean at $81,500.
Two wallets linked to Matrixport transferred 4,000 Bitcoin to Binance, fueling fears of a fresh sell-off.
Bitcoin price must hold $81,500
Bitcoin has dropped toward and found support near its True Market Mean (TMM), currently at $81,500, according to onchain data provider CryptoQuant.
The True Market Mean, or the Active-Investor Price, represents the cost basis of all non-dormant coins, excluding miners.
“This level has acted like a psychological line in the sand,” CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ said in a Quicktake analysis on Wednesday.
When BTC trades above it, investors are generally comfortable, but when this support is lost, the “same level often flips into resistance, as people who bought near the average cost use rallies to exit,” the analyst said, adding:
“Failure to hold the $81.5K level will likely result in a sharp break below, followed by a search for support in the coming months.”
Bitcoin: True Market Mean. Source: CryptoQuant
The chart above shows that the BTC/USD pair traded above this level from Jan. 22 to May 5, 2022. When BTC dropped below this level on May 6, the price lost a further 61%, bottoming at $15,500 in November of that year.
The importance of this level is reinforced by the AVIV Ratio — a metric that compares active market valuation with realized valuation, focusing only on investor profits.
The chart below shows that the AVIV Ratio is at levels that have defined past mid-cycle transitions, a period where “the price tends to consolidate for a while, to subsequently either form support or confirm a bear market,” MorenoDV_ wrote, adding:
“We are at a critical moment.”
Bitcoin: AVIV Ratio. Source: CryptoQuant.
Trader and analyst Daan Crypto Trades said the BTC/USD pair will continue “ranging with a choppy price action” until the major support around the $84,000-$85,00 region is lost, or the “big resistance” at $94,000 is broken.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades
Matrixport-linked wallets move 4,000 BTC to Binance
Bitcoin’s critical moment comes against the backdrop of renewed activity by whales who appear to be doubling down on their capitulation.
Lookonchain reported that two wallets, linked to financial services giant Matrixport, moved a whopping 4,000 BTC, worth approximately $347.6 million, to the Binance exchange.
Source: Lookonchain
Such large inflows often indicate the intention to sell or hedge positions.
Analyst 0xNobler said the company has “dumped 80% of its crypto holdings over the last 5 days,” adding:
“They’ve been non-stop selling millions in BTC on Binance.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
BitMine says it holds 3,864,951 ETH after adding 138,452 ETH in a week, describing its treasury as representing more than 3.2% of the ETH supply, as defined in the filing.
The accumulation is happening alongside risk-off signals, including notable spot Ether ETF outflow days and a reported spike in net outflows to Binance.
BitMine frames the strategy as both catalyst-driven (the Fusaka upgrade) and operational, pointing to staking via its planned MAVAN initiative in early 2026.
Interpretations differ, with some viewing the move as conviction-style positioning and others as a concentrated corporate treasury bet that is highly sensitive to flows, liquidity and volatility.
In a Dec. 8 disclosure, the company said it held 3,864,951 Ether (ETH) as of Dec. 7 and added 138,452 ETH over the prior week, describing the position as representing more than 3.2% of the ETH supply.
The backdrop looks less supportive. US spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have posted several notable net outflow days into early December, for example, -$79.0 million on Dec. 1 and -$41.5 million on Dec. 4, based on Farside’s daily totals. Meanwhile, onchain commentators have pointed to elevated ETH deposits to Binance, including a reported 162,084-ETH inflow on Dec. 5. Ether fell about 22% in November.
BitMine says the buying is a long-term bet on future catalysts, while critics see it as a large, concentrated treasury position taken as market flows remain cautious.
Did you know? Tom Lee has been ranked by Institutional Investor since 1998, and before co-founding Fundstrat, he served as JPMorgan’s chief equity strategist from 2007 to 2014.
What exactly has BitMine done?
BitMine’s latest disclosure puts its Ether position at 3,864,951 ETH as of Dec. 7, valued at an ETH price of $3,139.
The company also reported buying 138,452 ETH over the prior week and said the treasury represents more than 3.2% of ETH’s supply.
Alongside ETH, BitMine listed 193 BTC, $1 billion in cash and a $36-million stake in Eightco Holdings under its “moonshots” bucket, presenting the combined portfolio as a crypto and cash treasury strategy positioned as a public equity vehicle that may offer indirect exposure for some investors.
This posture is relatively new. BitMine shifted from its prior focus to an aggressive Ether treasury strategy in late June 2025 and has publicly discussed an ambition to eventually acquire up to 5% of the total ETH supply.
The strategy has attracted high-profile attention, with the company citing investments and buying interest associated with Bill Miller III, ARK Invest and Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund.
Did you know? Peter Thiel disclosed a 9.1% stake in BitMine in July 2025, making him its largest investor at the time of writing.
The “fear” signals around Ether
The “market fear” framing in this story is largely flow-driven.
On the ETF side, US spot Ether products have shown uneven demand into early December. Farside’s daily totals include multiple negative sessions, such as -$79.0 million on Dec. 1 and -$9.9 million on Dec. 2, after a stronger run in late November.
Separately, the category saw heavy outflows in November, with $1.4 billion in net outflows, the largest monthly withdrawal on record.
On exchanges, analysts often view large ETH deposits to trading venues as a possible sign of increased near-term sell-side readiness. Ether’s netflow to Binance reached 162,084 ETH on Dec. 5, described as the largest single-day positive netflow since May 2023.
Price action has reinforced the risk-off tone. Ether fell about 22% in November, a drawdown that provides the emotional backdrop for interpreting those flows.
BitMine’s rationale
BitMine has framed its ETH accumulation as a thesis-driven treasury strategy rather than a response to short-term price moves.
In its Dec. 8 disclosure, the company linked the buying to “multiple catalysts,” putting Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade at the center of the argument.
BitMine chairman Tom Lee described the Dec. 3 activation as a milestone that improves Ethereum’s scalability, security and usability and positioned it as part of the network’s next phase of technical maturation.
The company also tied its Ethereum bet to a looser macro backdrop. In the same filing, Lee pointed to the US Federal Reserve ending quantitative tightening and referenced expectations of a market pricing for rate cuts, presenting both as supportive conditions for risk assets in general.
Operationally, BitMine has connected its treasury approach to staking. In a Nov. 21 filing, it said it plans to begin Ether staking in early 2026 through a “Made in America Validator Network” (MAVAN).
The company also disclosed that it selected three staking providers for a pilot test, using a portion of its ETH holdings ahead of a broader rollout.
Did you know? The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority approved the company’s name change from Sandy Springs Holdings to BitMine Immersion Technologies in March 2022, along with the ticker change to “BMNR.”
Two competing interpretations
Interpretation A: Conviction and structural positioning
From BitMine’s perspective, the accumulation reads like a deliberate attempt to build scale ahead of catalysts it believes are not fully reflected in current positioning.
The company’s Dec. 8 disclosure explicitly frames the buying as thesis-driven, pointing to Ethereum’s Fusaka activation and a macro backdrop it describes as turning more supportive for risk assets.
In that context, the ETH stack is presented more as a strategic reserve that can be paired with operational participation in the network.
BitMine’s Nov. 21 filing reinforces that angle through MAVAN.
Supporters of this view also point to a familiar public markets dynamic: A listed company can function as a simplified exposure vehicle for investors who prefer an equity wrapper, even when direct crypto demand is uneven.
Interpretation B: Concentrated corporate treasury risk taken against a cautious tape
A more skeptical reading starts with the same numbers and arrives somewhere else. BitMine itself describes the position as more than 3.2% of ETH’s supply, which can be interpreted as concentration risk: The strategy’s success becomes highly sensitive to ETH volatility, financing conditions and liquidity.
This view gains traction when risk-off flow indicators are active. Farside’s daily totals show negative sessions for spot Ether ETFs into early December, while separate analytics commentary has highlighted large ETH deposits to Binance, including a reported 162,084 ETH inflow on Dec. 5.
Add in November’s drawdown, and critics frame the move as a high-conviction directional bet on a reversal rather than a calm accumulation.
BitMine’s own filing language also notes that outcomes depend on market conditions and other forward-looking risks, factors that can make the same accumulation look either visionary or fragile, depending on which regime dominates.
What happens next?
In the near term, BitMine’s strategy will be judged by follow-through: whether the company keeps expanding its disclosed ETH treasury at a similar cadence and continues publishing regular balance updates.
The next concrete operational milestone it has outlined is staking. BitMine has said it plans to begin staking in early 2026 via MAVAN, following a pilot using third-party providers.
On the protocol side, Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade activated on Dec. 3, 2025 (per the Ethereum Foundation), setting the stage for subsequent scaling-oriented work.
Meanwhile, the flow indicators driving the “fear” framing (daily ETF net flows and large exchange deposits) remain the most visible real-time signals to watch.
Onchain activity declined sharply on several major networks, according to Nansen data, with 11 blockchains posting drops in active addresses in the past year.
Ronin fell the most at 70%, while Bitcoin registered a 7.2% decline. Several Ethereum layer-2 networks made the list.
Nansen data also showed drops in transaction activity across many of the same networks. ZKsync recorded one of the steepest declines, with transactions falling 90%.
Meanwhile, Ethereum’s base layer recorded a 25% increase in active addresses and more than a 20% rise in transactions, even as debate continued around Ethereum’s rollup-centric roadmap and concerns over liquidity fragmentation across layer-2 networks.
Ronin and Ethereum layer-2 chains dominate activity declines as Bitcoin sneaks into the list. Source: Nansen
Networks with the biggest usage declines
Pixels is a popular game that migrated to Ronin from Polygon in the second half of 2023. At the time, Ronin had roughly 20,000 daily active users before Pixels’ arrival drove a sharp increase in activity, briefly making Ronin the second-most active chain by daily users.
By December 2024, Pixels registered around 300,000 daily active users, according to DappRadar. The game’s popularity has since declined, and Ronin’s onchain activity has fallen alongside it, showing the network’s reliance on hit games.
Pixels activity dropped throughout 2025. Source: DappRadar
Arbitrum saw active addresses fall by 3%, though its roughly 31 million users still ranked it among the top 10 networks by activity. The Ethereum rollup conducted its airdrop in 2023, and its transaction volume rose 36% over the past year to about 734.5 million, beating Ethereum’s 507 million transactions. Arbitrum drew activity from tokenized assets, including 500 US stocks stamped on the network by Robinhood.
Base and Optimism stood out among Ethereum layer-2 networks. Both posted increases in active addresses and transaction volumes. Base does not have a native token and has never conducted an airdrop. Onchain activity rose alongside interest in areas such as memecoins, AI-related applications and decentralized exchanges.
Solana recorded the most active addresses in the industry with more than 1 billion, followed by Tron and Ethereum. BNB Chain posted a 159% increase in active addresses, while Bitcoin was the only network in the top five to record a decline, alongside a 22% drop in transactions.
Memecoin activity has cooled, but Solana still leads the industry in onchain activity. Source: Nansen
What the declines do and do not show
The data showed little consistent relationship between onchain usage and token prices. Solana’s price fell over the past year despite a 66% increase in active addresses, while BNB’s (BNB) token price rose alongside increased network activity.
BNB rose almost 20% in the past year. Source: CoinGecko
The year-over-year declines do not necessarily point to terminal problems for the networks involved. Onchain activity can swing sharply as applications migrate, incentive programs wind down or users shift between chains, particularly among newer networks still establishing their core use cases.
Telegram-linked blockchain The Open Network (TON) also recorded a 47% drop in active addresses and a 51% decline in transactions, a reversal that followed outsized growth in 2024. Telegram-based mini-games drove much of that earlier activity, drawing in users beyond the platform’s typical crypto-native audience.
Hamster Kombat was among the most prominent examples. The tapping-based game lowered the barrier to entry through simple mechanics and drew heavy participation from users anticipating a future token airdrop. According to Telegram CEO Pavel Durov, the viral game attracted 239 million users within three months, with more than 130 million qualifying for its airdrop in late September.
Nansen data shows that TON’s active addresses peaked at roughly 2.5 million per day on Sept. 30. Activity has since fallen back as engagement tied to Hamster Kombat cooled, underscoring how short-lived surges can distort year-over-year comparisons.
Hamster Kombat pushed Ton’s activity to new records. Source: Nansen
A few chains retained usage after hype
The past year’s blockchain data shows that onchain activity shifts quickly between networks rather than remaining anchored to any single chain. Usage fell most sharply on blockchains where activity had been concentrated around a small number of applications, incentive programs or viral moments.
At the same time, those declines do not automatically signal broader ecosystem failure. In several cases, activity cooled after periods of outsized growth, highlighting how year-over-year comparisons can be distorted by hype cycles, airdrops or short-lived applications.
Solana offers a useful contrast. While memecoin-driven activity boomed throughout 2024 and early 2025 before cooling toward the end of the year, the surge also brought in users, liquidity and applications that continued to support the network.
Solana’s memecoin boom has brought in new addresses that stayed after the boom. Source: Nansen
Solana’s daily active addresses peaked above 9 million on Oct. 22, 2024, during the height of memecoin trading. By December, daily users fluctuated between 2 million and 3 million. While that marked a sharp pullback from peak levels, activity remained consistently higher than before the boom.
Much of the past year’s onchain activity decline was driven by short-term profit-seeking, but networks such as Solana, BNB Chain and Base showed signs of retaining usage beyond viral surges, setting them apart from chains that saw sharper reversals.
Custodia Bank, a crypto‑focused bank founded by Bitcoin advocate Caitlin Long, is doubling down on efforts to obtain a master account at the US Federal Reserve by filing a new petition in the United States Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit.
On Monday, the Wyoming-chartered company filed a petition asking all active judges of the Tenth Circuit to reconsider its October decision upholding the Federal Reserve’s denial of a master account for Custodia.
Through the petition, formally termed a “rehearing en banc,” Custodia argued that the panel had misread the Monetary Control Act, which it asserts entitles any eligible bank to a master account, and in doing so, undermines state banking authority.
“When the Fed denies a master account to a state-chartered financial institution, it effectively vetoes a bank charter that state regulators have approved,” the petition noted, adding that the issue raises “serious constitutional questions” about the Fed’s structure.
Why is a Fed master account so important?
Issued by the Fed, a master account allows a financial institution to hold balances directly with the US central bank and access its core payment systems.
For companies like Custodia, having a master account is crucial, as it would enable them to settle payments and clear transactions directly in central bank money, rather than relying on another bank as an intermediary. Without it, they must use correspondent banks to access the Fed’s systems, which can add cost, risk and delay.
Source: Custodia Bank founder and CEO Caitlin Long
“In terms of tiers, a master account is Diamond, bank is Platinum, trust companies are Gold and money transmitter licenses are Silver,” Custodia Bank founder and CEO Long said in an X post in July, adding that Custodia and Kraken are the “only two crypto companies” that are banks.
Custodia has been trying to get a Fed master account since it launched in 2020, but the Kansas City Fed denied its master account application in January 2023, and the Federal Reserve also rejected its bid to become a member of the Federal Reserve System.
Custodia’s long fight for a Fed master account highlights ongoing crypto debanking issues, even though the Trump administration has expressed support for crypto.
In March, Long said the US government had done “nothing” to address crypto debanking issues since President Donald Trump returned to office, highlighting one of the crypto industry’s biggest unresolved challenges.
Bitcoin (BTC) long-term holders continued to reduce their BTC exposure as their holdings fell to the lowest levels since April.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin long-term holders reduced their supply to 72%, the lowest since April
BTC price is at risk of a deeper correction to $68,500 if key support levels fail.
Bitcoin long-term holder supply falls to April levels
Long-term holders (LTHs), entities that have held Bitcoin for at least 155 days, reduced their holdings to 14.3 million BTC in December from 14.8 million BTC in mid-July, according to data from Glassnode.
This has reduced the share of circulating Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders to 71.92%, a level last seen in April, as shown in the chart below
The April figures came as Bitcoin dropped from its Jan. 20 all-time high of $109,000, bottoming at $74,000. LTHs took advantage of the low prices and increased their supply to 76% in July, resulting in a 65% rally in Bitcoin’s price to its record highs of $123,000.
Zooming out, LTH supply typically sees sharp declines during the retail-driven phases and selling by LTHs that accompany cycle peaks, as seen in 2017 and 2021.
Analyzing the LTH supply change, data from CryptoQuant reveals that on a rolling 30-day basis, the supply had dropped by 1.1 million BTC on Nov. 26, the second-largest on record.
As of Monday, the LTH supply had decreased by 761,000 coins over the past 30 days, suggesting that these investors are capitulating as fears of deeper price drops mount.
Bitcoin 30-day rolling LTH supply change. Source: CryptoQuant
As Cointelegraph reported, whales sold $2.78 billion in BTC over the last 30 days, keeping downside pressure firmly in place.
Can BTC price avoid a trip below $70,000?
Bitcoin’s technical structure weakened after it lost support from the 50-week moving average (MA) and the yearly open at $93,300.
The chart below shows that the BTC/USD pair validated a bear flag when it dropped below the lower boundary of the flag at $92,000 on Friday.
The first area of interest now lies between the $83,800 local low (reached on Dec. 1) and the multimonth low of $80,500, reached on Nov. 21.
Losing this support zone would open the door for a deeper correction toward the measured target of the flag at $68,500, supported by the 200-week MA. Such a move would represent a 20% drawdown from the current price.
“BTC broke down again, confirming the bearish flag,” said analyst Nic in an X post on Tuesday, adding that the next “potential support” is the 100-week EMA at $85,500.
“If we break that, there are key onchain levels such as $83.8K (ETF cost basis) and the $81.2K (true market mean),” before $80,000 comes to the picture, the analyst added.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Bitcoin attempted a recovery on Monday, but renewed selling pressure threatened to pull the price to $84,000.
Several altcoins were attempting to hold above their support levels, but the bounce lacked strength.
Bitcoin (BTC) attempted a recovery on Monday, but the bears continued to exert pressure. Trader CrypNuevo said in a thread on X that BTC could range from $80,000 to $99,000, and a break below $80,000 may sink the price to $73,000.
On similar lines, analyst Aksel Kibar said BTC could start a directional move soon, following the “extreme low volatility setup.” On the upside, Kibar expects a move to $100,000 if the $94,600 level is taken out, and on the downside, he anticipates BTC to bottom out in the $73,700 to $76,500 range.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: CoinMarketCap
Analysts are keeping an eye on the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which is expected to hike interest rates on Friday. Previous instances of BoJ rate hikes since 2024 have resulted in a drawdown of more than 20% in BTC, according to data shared by AndrewBTC.
Could BTC and the major altcoins start a relief rally, or will the bears pull the price lower? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
S&P 500 Index price prediction
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) turned down from the 6,920 resistance on Friday, indicating that the bears are aggressively defending the level.
If the price breaks below the moving averages, it suggests that the index could range from 6,550 to 6,920 for a few more days. A close below 6,550 will form a double-top pattern, opening the doors for a drop to the pattern target of 6,180.
Conversely, if the price rises above the moving averages and breaks above 6,920, it signals the resumption of the uptrend. The index could then surge toward the target objective at 7,290.
US Dollar Index price prediction
The US Dollar Index (DXY) attempted to rise above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) (99.04) on Tuesday, but the bears held their ground.
The moving averages have completed a bearish crossover, and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the negative zone, suggesting that the bears hold the edge in the near term. There is minor support at the 98 level, but if the sellers pull the price below it, the index could drop to 97.20 and then to 96.21.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA. Buyers will be back in the driver’s seat on a close above the 100.54 resistance.
Bitcoin price prediction
BTC bounced off the uptrend line on Monday, but the bulls could not clear the 20-day EMA ($90,720) hurdle.
The 20-day EMA has started to turn down, and the RSI is in the negative territory, indicating advantage to bears. If the price closes below the uptrend line, the BTC/USDT pair could nosedive to $84,000 and eventually to the Nov. 21 low of $80,600.
Instead, if the price turns up sharply and closes above the 20-day EMA, it shows buying at lower levels. The pair may then rally to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($95,985). Sellers are expected to defend the zone between the 50-day SMA and $100,000, as a break above it suggests that the corrective phase is over.
Ether price prediction
Buyers pushed Ether (ETH) above the 20-day EMA ($3,106) on Monday, but the long wick on the candlestick shows selling at higher levels.
The bears will strive to pull the Ether price below the $2,907 level. If they manage to do that, the ETH/USDT pair could descend to the $2,716 to $2,623 support zone.
This negative view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the breakdown level of $3,350. That suggests the pair may have bottomed out in the near term. The pair could rally to $3,658 and, after that, to $3,918.
BNB price prediction
The tight range trading in BNB (BNB) has resolved to the downside, signaling a slight advantage to the bears.
The sellers will attempt to pull the price to the $791 level, which is a critical support to watch out for. If the level gives way, the BNB/USDT pair will resume the downtrend toward the next support at $730.
Alternatively, if the BNB price rebounds sharply off the $791 support and breaks above the 20-day EMA ($888), it suggests that the pair may form a range. The price could swing between $791 and $1,020 for a few days.
XRP price prediction
XRP (XRP) remains stuck below the 20-day EMA ($2.06), indicating a lack of aggressive buying by the bulls.
The bears will attempt to sink the XRP price to the support line of the descending channel pattern and then to the $1.61 level. Buyers are expected to defend the $1.61 level with all their might, as a break below it could sink the XRP/USDT pair to the Oct. 10 low of $1.25.
The bulls will have to push the price above the 50-day SMA ($2.21) to signal strength. The pair could then rally to the downtrend line, where the bears are expected to mount a strong defense.
Solana price prediction
Solana (SOL) has formed a symmetrical triangle, indicating uncertainty between buyers and sellers.
If the price turns down and breaks below the support line of the triangle, it signals that the bears have gained the upper hand over the bulls. The SOL/USDT pair could then plunge toward the strong support at $95.
Conversely, a break and close above the resistance line of the triangle suggests that the bulls are attempting a comeback. The Solana price could then rally to $172 and later to $189.
If they manage to do that, the Dogecoin price could resume its downtrend. The DOGE/USDT pair may then nosedive toward the Oct. 10 low of $0.10, which is likely to attract solid buying by the bulls.
The bulls will have to thrust the Dogecoin price above the 20-day EMA ($0.14) to signal strength. If they can pull it off, the pair may rally toward $0.19. That suggests the break below $0.14 may have been a bear trap.
Cardano price prediction
Cardano (ADA) continues to slide toward the $0.37 level, which is a critical support to watch out for in the near term.
If the bears pull the Cardano price below the $0.37 level, it signals the start of the next leg of the downward move. The ADA/USDT pair could then plummet to the Oct. 10 low of $0.27.
On the contrary, if the price turns up and breaks above the 20-day EMA ($0.42), it suggests that the pair may consolidate between $0.37 and $0.50 for a while. Buyers will have to push the pair above the $0.50 level to signal a potential trend change.
Bitcoin Cash price prediction
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has broken below the 20-day EMA ($560), indicating that the bulls are losing their grip.
The next support on the downside is the 50-day SMA ($534) and then $508. Such a move suggests that the Bitcoin Cash price may oscillate inside the $443 to $615 range for some more time.
Buyers will have to drive and maintain the price above the $615 level to signal the resumption of the up move. The BCH/USDT pair may then challenge the crucial overhead resistance at $651.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
For more than a decade, Bitcoin’s largest holders have acted as the unseen forces behind many of the market’s biggest surges and deepest crashes.
These so-called whales have always held outsized influence, but their behavior throughout 2025 suggests a major shift is underway that may fundamentally reshape how Bitcoin (BTC) behaves as we head into 2026.
What some traders viewed as a turning point came on Oct. 10, a day many traders now view as the unofficial end of the most recent crypto bull market. While billions in retail positions were wiped out in minutes, one early Bitcoin whale walked away with roughly $200 million in profit, according to onchain data.
At the same time, large, long-inactive wallets suddenly sprang back to life, moving thousands of BTC for the first time in years. The timing raised a familiar but uncomfortable question: How much power do whales really have over Bitcoin’s price, and what can their behavior tell us about the next phase of the market?
Cointelegraph’s latest video delves into these questions, using onchain data and expert insights to examine both early “OG” whales and the newer class of institutional whales, including exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and publicly traded treasury companies.
We examine why OG whales have been selling heavily this year, how institutions absorbed that supply, and why institutional demand now appears to be slowing. We also explain why retail traders often misread whale activity and how these signals can lead to poor decisions.
To get the full analysis, watch the complete video on the Cointelegraph YouTube channel.
Tajikistan has criminalized the use of stolen electricity for cryptocurrency mining, introducing fines of up to $8,250 and prison sentences of up to eight years.
The move follows an energy crisis in which widespread power shortages and reportedly illegal mining have caused millions in losses and infrastructure damage.
The country joins a broader trend, as governments from Asia to the Middle East intensify crackdowns on unauthorized crypto mining to protect national power supplies.
Crypto mining may be shifting, with some operators moving toward renewable energy sources and more energy-efficient technologies.
On Dec. 3, 2025, Tajikistan’s parliament formally approved amendments to its criminal code that make it a criminal offense to use electricity illegally for cryptocurrency mining. The new law introduces Article 253(2), titled “Illegal use of electricity for the production of virtual assets.”
Under the new law, anyone found mining digital assets using stolen or unmetered electricity faces serious penalties. The basic offense carries fines ranging from about $1,650 to $4,070.
If the act is committed by a coordinated group, penalties rise to $4,125-$8,250, or two to five years in prison. In cases involving large-scale or organized operations, offenders may face up to eight years in prison.
The bill was presented to parliament by Attorney General Habibullo Vohidzoda, who warned that unregulated mining had already caused regional power outages, millions in losses and an uptick in related crimes. He told lawmakers that damages from illegal mining had reached about $3.52 million and that several criminal cases were under investigation.
Power shortages in Tajikistan and mounting pressure
Tajikistan’s decision comes amid one of the most severe energy crises the country has faced in recent years.
The country relies heavily on hydropower, and low water levels in reservoirs have forced authorities to ration electricity during the winter. In many areas, residents receive only two to four hours of power each day.
Officials say unlicensed mining farms are worsening the situation. These operations often connect to the national grid illegally or bypass meters to avoid paying for power. The result is not only significant financial losses but also serious damage to power infrastructure.
Member of Parliament Shukhrat Ganizoda told lawmakers that a typical application-specific integrated circuits (ASIC) mining device draws about 3.5 kilowatts (kW) of power, while more advanced models can draw up to 6 kW. He said large mining farms running thousands of these machines place an enormous strain on the grid. Ganizoda added that perpetrators often tamper with wiring and meters to cut costs and maximize profits.
He also noted that illegal mining can contribute to tax evasion, untraceable financial transactions and attempts to conceal or launder criminal proceeds. The new legislation, he emphasized, is designed to protect both the country’s economy and its energy security.
Once signed by President Emomali Rahmon and published in state media, the law will take effect.
Did you know? Under Tajikistan’s new Article 253(2), mining cryptocurrency using stolen power can carry a prison sentence of up to eight years.
A global wave of crypto mining crackdowns
Tajikistan’s move is part of a broader international shift. Around the world, governments are rethinking their stance on cryptocurrency mining as energy costs rise and grids become strained:
In Malaysia, authorities have uncovered thousands of illegal mining sites that siphoned off electricity worth more than $1 billion over the past few years.
In Kuwait, officials launched a nationwide operation in 2025 to shut down unauthorized mining farms after power shortages worsened. Electricity usage reportedly fell by more than 50% in one area following the crackdown.
Even in countries that once embraced mining, such as China and Kazakhstan, energy shortages and rising environmental concerns have led to tighter regulations and, in some cases, outright bans. Many of these governments now treat unauthorized mining as theft or economic sabotage rather than a simple administrative violation.
The common thread is clear: Where electricity is cheap, subsidized or poorly monitored, crypto mining tends to surge. When energy becomes scarce, regulators step in to protect the grid and ensure the public has access to essential power.
Why Tajikistan’s mining crackdown matters for energy policy
Tajikistan’s new law highlights how cryptocurrency mining has shifted from a financial curiosity to a matter of national infrastructure and energy policy. Mining Bitcoin (BTC) and other proof-of-work cryptocurrencies consumes large amounts of electricity, and when done illegally, it creates a double burden.
First, it drains limited energy resources that should be available to households and industry. Second, it deprives the state of revenue and raises maintenance costs as infrastructure is damaged. For countries with fragile power systems, this combination can be very hard to manage.
In Tajikistan, authorities hope that criminalizing unauthorized mining will deter offenders and help stabilize the power grid. The law also signals to investors and businesses that the government is serious about regulating digital asset activity.
The move comes as the country strengthens penalties for other forms of power theft and nonpayment. Those offenses can already result in fines of up to $9,900 or prison sentences of up to eight years.
How miners and the crypto industry may respond
The tightening of rules in Tajikistan and elsewhere is likely to accelerate what analysts call “mining migration.” As one country enforces tougher penalties, miners often relocate to jurisdictions with more lenient rules or cheaper energy.
This pattern has played out before. When China banned crypto mining in 2021, much of the industry shifted to countries such as Kazakhstan, the United States and Russia. But as some of those regions experienced grid strain, many have since reevaluated their stance.
Experts say the future of mining will increasingly depend on access to renewable or surplus power. Operations that rely on sustainable energy are less likely to attract regulatory scrutiny. Some blockchain networks are also moving toward proof-of-stake models, which typically require far less electricity.
For Tajikistan, the hope is that the new penalties will discourage illegal mining altogether rather than push it further underground.
Energy security is now crypto policy
Tajikistan’s decision underscores a growing recognition that crypto mining is not just about digital finance. It touches on energy security, infrastructure resilience and environmental policy.
By making illegal mining a criminal offense, the government aims to send a clear message that energy misuse will not be tolerated. In a country where electricity shortages regularly affect daily life, the measure is as much about fairness as it is about technology.
For miners worldwide, Tajikistan’s example is a reminder that cheap or free electricity comes at a cost. As more governments treat energy theft as a serious crime, the global map of crypto mining will continue to shift toward regions that can balance innovation with responsibility.
In Tajikistan, that balance now means one thing above all: In the country, mining with stolen or unmetered electricity can now trigger criminal penalties, including prison time.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
AAVE price prediction points to potential recovery toward $215-225 medium-term target, but must hold critical $190 support level with bullish MACD momentum building.
With AAVE trading at $194.75 and showing mixed technical signals, the cryptocurrency faces a critical juncture that could determine its direction over the coming weeks. Our comprehensive Aave forecast analysis reveals both bullish momentum indicators and key resistance levels that will shape the token’s near-term trajectory.
AAVE Price Prediction Summary
• AAVE short-term target (1 week): $207-$210 (+6-8%)
• Aave medium-term forecast (1 month): $215-$225 range
• Key level to break for bullish continuation: $207.16
• Critical support if bearish: $190.00
Recent Aave Price Predictions from Analysts
The latest AAVE price prediction landscape shows notable divergence among analysts. Blockchain.News maintains an optimistic medium-term AAVE price target of $215-$225, citing bullish MACD histogram readings and the token’s ability to hold above the crucial $190 support level. This aligns with our technical analysis showing strengthening momentum indicators.
Conversely, CoinMarketCap AI warns of potential downside below $195 in the short term, pointing to governance controversies that could weigh on sentiment. Yellow.com’s Aave forecast suggests a possible retreat to $230, though this appears to be a typo given current price levels, likely referring to a drop toward the $180-$190 zone based on double-top pattern analysis.
The consensus reveals a market at an inflection point, with medium-term bulls facing near-term technical headwinds.
AAVE Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Bullish Breakout
Current Aave technical analysis reveals several encouraging signals supporting our bullish AAVE price prediction. The MACD histogram reading of 1.3692 indicates building positive momentum, while the RSI at 51.88 sits in neutral territory with room for upward movement before reaching overbought conditions.
The Bollinger Bands positioning tells a compelling story, with AAVE trading at 0.67 of the band width, suggesting the token is approaching the upper band at $204.87 but hasn’t reached extreme overbought levels. This positioning often precedes continuation moves higher when supported by volume confirmation.
Volume analysis shows $12.17 million in 24-hour Binance spot trading, providing adequate liquidity for the next leg higher. The key resistance at $207.16 represents the immediate hurdle, followed by stronger resistance at $249.00.
Aave Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for AAVE
Our primary AAVE price target focuses on the $215-$225 zone within the next 30 days. This target aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the recent decline and represents a logical profit-taking area for swing traders.
For this bullish Aave forecast to materialize, AAVE needs to break above $207.16 with volume confirmation. A successful break would likely trigger momentum buying toward $220, with potential extension to $235 if governance concerns subside.
Bearish Risk for Aave
The primary risk scenario involves a break below the critical $190 support level. Such a breakdown could trigger stops and accelerate selling toward the stronger support zone at $162.29. A deeper correction could test the $147.13 level, representing the major support from our analysis.
Traders should monitor the governance controversy developments closely, as negative news could override technical bullishness and force a retest of lower levels.
Should You Buy AAVE Now? Entry Strategy
Based on our AAVE price prediction, the optimal entry strategy involves scaling into positions on any pullback toward $190-$192. This approach provides favorable risk-reward with stops below $187.
For aggressive traders, a breakout entry above $207.16 with volume confirmation offers momentum participation, though at higher risk. Conservative investors should wait for a successful retest of $207 as support before adding exposure.
Position sizing should remain moderate given the mixed sentiment and governance uncertainties. Consider allocating no more than 2-3% of portfolio value initially, with plans to add on confirmed breakout.
AAVE Price Prediction Conclusion
Our Aave forecast anticipates a recovery toward $215-$225 over the next 30 days, supported by improving technical momentum and oversold conditions from recent declines. The bullish MACD histogram and neutral RSI provide the foundation for this move, with medium confidence in the prediction.
Key indicators to monitor include the $207.16 resistance break and governance news flow. A decisive break above $210 with volume would increase confidence in reaching the upper target range. Conversely, failure to hold $190 support would invalidate the bullish case and trigger our bearish scenario.
The prediction timeline spans 2-4 weeks for initial targets, with potential extension to $235-$250 if broader DeFi sentiment improves alongside AAVE’s technical breakout.
Lido DAO shows bullish momentum signs with MACD histogram positive at 0.0063. Technical analysis suggests LDO price prediction targets $0.70 within 4-6 weeks.
Lido DAO (LDO) is currently trading at $0.60, showing signs of potential recovery after testing critical support levels. With the MACD histogram turning positive and RSI maintaining neutral territory, our comprehensive Lido DAO technical analysis suggests a measured bullish outlook for the coming weeks.
LDO Price Prediction Summary
• LDO short-term target (1 week): $0.65 (+8.3%)
• Lido DAO medium-term forecast (1 month): $0.68-$0.72 range • Key level to break for bullish continuation: $0.68 (Bollinger Band upper resistance)
• Critical support if bearish: $0.55 (strong support confluence)
Recent Lido DAO Price Predictions from Analysts
Recent analyst predictions present a mixed but cautiously optimistic picture for LDO. CoinLore’s AI models project an LDO price prediction of $0.5915 for the short term, while their long-term Lido DAO forecast extends to $5.58, indicating substantial upside potential over extended timeframes.
The consensus among recent predictions shows bearish short-term sentiment, with CMC AI targeting $0.45 following whale sell-offs. However, this contrasts sharply with the current technical setup, where LDO has already found support above the $0.55 level and shows early bullish momentum signals.
The divergence between pessimistic short-term predictions and improving technical indicators suggests the market may be oversold at current levels, presenting a potential opportunity for contrarian positioning.
LDO Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Recovery
Current Lido DAO technical analysis reveals several encouraging signals despite the recent downtrend. The MACD histogram has turned positive at 0.0063, indicating early bullish momentum building beneath the surface. This divergence from recent price action often precedes meaningful reversals.
LDO’s position at 0.3817 within the Bollinger Bands suggests the token is trading in the lower portion of its recent range, but not oversold. The RSI at 43.40 remains in neutral territory, providing room for upward movement without immediately triggering overbought conditions.
Trading volume of $3.11 million on Binance spot shows adequate liquidity, though increased volume confirmation would strengthen any breakout attempt. The daily ATR of $0.05 indicates moderate volatility, suggesting controlled price movements rather than panic selling.
Lido DAO Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for LDO
Our primary LDO price target sits at $0.70, representing a 16.7% gain from current levels. This target aligns with the 50-day SMA at $0.71, which has acted as significant resistance. A successful break above the immediate resistance at $0.68 (Bollinger Band upper) would likely trigger momentum toward this level.
The path higher requires LDO to first reclaim the 20-day SMA at $0.62, then challenge the $0.68 resistance zone. Success at these levels could extend the rally toward $0.75-$0.80, where the next major resistance cluster resides.
Bearish Risk for Lido DAO
Should the current support at $0.55 fail, our bearish Lido DAO forecast targets the $0.45-$0.50 range, aligning with recent analyst predictions. This scenario would represent a 25% decline from current levels and would likely coincide with broader crypto market weakness.
The critical level to monitor is $0.55, which represents both the Bollinger Band lower boundary and strong technical support. A decisive break below this level with volume confirmation would invalidate our bullish thesis and trigger deeper selling pressure.
Should You Buy LDO Now? Entry Strategy
Based on current technical positioning, a measured approach to buy or sell LDO decisions appears warranted. For aggressive traders, current levels around $0.60 offer reasonable risk-reward, with stops placed below $0.55 support.
Conservative investors should wait for confirmation above $0.62 (20-day SMA) before initiating positions. This approach sacrifices some upside potential but provides greater confidence in the recovery narrative.
Position sizing should reflect the mixed prediction environment, with initial allocations kept modest pending clearer directional signals. Risk management remains paramount given LDO’s 61% decline from 52-week highs.
LDO Price Prediction Conclusion
Our LDO price prediction anticipates a recovery to $0.70 within the next 4-6 weeks, representing medium confidence based on improving technical indicators despite bearish analyst sentiment. The positive MACD histogram and neutral RSI provide the foundation for this forecast.
Key indicators to monitor include volume confirmation on any breakout attempt, RSI movement above 50, and successful reclamation of the 20-day SMA at $0.62. Failure to hold $0.55 support would invalidate this prediction and suggest deeper correction toward analyst targets near $0.45.
The timeline for this Lido DAO forecast extends through January 2025, with initial confirmation signals expected within the next 7-10 trading days. Traders should remain flexible as crypto markets can shift rapidly, particularly during year-end trading conditions.
