A trader lost about $3 million after building a large leveraged Fartcoin position on Hyperliquid that unraveled in thin liquidity, triggering the platform’s auto-deleveraging (ADL) mechanism.
Hyperliquid data flagged by Lookonchain shows that the trader accumulated about 145 million tokens across multiple wallets before being liquidated. The liquidation redistributed gains to opposing traders, with at least two wallets seeing around $849,000 through ADL.
PeckShield said the unwind produced about $3 million in accounting losses and left Hyperliquid’s HLP vault down roughly $1.5 million over 24 hours, though Hyperliquid had not publicly confirmed those figures by publication.
The episode highlighted how ADL can crystallize gains for traders on the other side of a collapsing position, while raising fresh questions about how Hyperliquid’s liquidation and vault structure behave in low-liquidity markets.
One of the wallets that profited from the redistribution. Source: Hyperdash
PeckShield said the activity appeared structured to trigger liquidations in low-liquidity conditions, potentially pushing losses onto Hyperliquid’s liquidity pool while being offset by positions elsewhere.
Cointelegraph reached out to Hyperliquid for comments, but had not received a response before publication.
Past trades exposed similar pressure on Hyperliquid’s liquidity system
This is not the first time Hyperliquid’s liquidity system has come under pressure from large, concentrated positions.
On March 13, 2025, the platform’s Hyperliquidity Provider (HLP) vault took a roughly $4 million hit after an oversized Ether (ETH) position was unwound, triggering liquidations under thin market conditions. After the incident, the team said that losses stemmed from market dynamics rather than a protocol exploit.
A similar episode occurred later that month involving the JELLY memecoin. On March 27, 2025, a trader used multiple leveraged positions to exploit the platform’s liquidation system.
However, the final outcome remained unclear, with Arkham saying the trader withdrew about $6.26 million but may still have ended up down nearly $1 million.
On Nov. 13, 2025, a similar pattern occurred when a trader built large leveraged positions in the POPCAT market, triggering cascading liquidations that left a $5 million hole in the HLP vault. Community members said the strategy appeared designed to create and then remove liquidity to force the vault to absorb the impact.
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
The US Department of Justice (DOJ) and Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) asked a federal court to block Arizona from enforcing state gambling law against Kalshi’s event contracts, arguing that they fall under the CFTC’s exclusive authority over swaps markets.
The Wednesday filing argues that event contracts listed on federally regulated platforms such as Kalshi are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and therefore fall within the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction.
The filing says Arizona’s enforcement effort unlawfully intrudes on the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction over federally regulated event-contract markets.
If granted, the order would block Arizona from applying its gambling laws to prediction markets that are listed as federally regulated event contracts. An arraignment in the criminal case against Kalshi is currently scheduled for Monday.
Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes announced charges against the companies behind Kalshi on March 17, accusing them of operating an “illegal gambling business in Arizona without a license” and offering illegal election wagering.
Kalshi co-founder and CEO, Tarek Mansour, claimed the charges were a “total overstep” and “not about gambling.”
Federal and state regulators clash over prediction markets
The dispute has become a major test of whether prediction market contracts belong under federal commodities law or state betting rules.
CFTC, DOJ court filing seeking a TRO against Arizona federal court in case against Kalshi, Case No: CV-26-01715-PHX-MTL. Source: Courtlistener
On April 2, the CFTC filed three separate lawsuits against the gaming regulators of Illinois, Connecticut and Arizona, claiming that the event contracts offered by the platforms violated state gambling laws and licensing requirements.
In those suits, the CFTC says it has exclusive jurisdiction over CFTC-registered designated contract markets that list lawful event contracts. Kalshi is the clearest example in the current litigation.
Prediction market activity has been rising since the beginning of the US and Israeli military conflict with Iran, fueling renewed insider trading allegations, after six Polymarket traders netted $1 million by accurately betting when the US would strike Iran.
In response to insider trading concerns, Democratic Party Senator Adam Schiff has introduced legislation seeking to ban prediction markets on war, death and terrorism.
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
AAVE price prediction suggests potential recovery to $98-105 by early May as oversold conditions develop, though bears maintain control below key resistance at $98.99.
While specific analyst predictions are limited for the current timeframe, historical analysis provides context for AAVE’s trajectory. Earlier projections from March 2026 identified key resistance levels around $116-137, though the token has since declined significantly from those levels.
According to on-chain data trends, AAVE has experienced substantial selling pressure, dropping over 46% from its 200-day moving average of $168.83. This suggests a prolonged bearish cycle that may be approaching oversold territory based on current technical indicators.
AAVE Technical Analysis Breakdown
AAVE’s technical picture presents a mixed but predominantly bearish outlook at the current $90.21 price level. The RSI reading of 32.24 indicates the token is approaching oversold conditions without quite reaching the extreme oversold threshold of 30, suggesting potential for a relief bounce.
The MACD histogram at 0.0000 confirms bearish momentum remains intact, with the MACD line at -5.3273 well below the signal line. This technical setup typically indicates continued downward pressure in the near term.
Aave’s position within the Bollinger Bands reveals significant insights, with the current price at 0.1660 of the band width, placing it much closer to the lower band at $85.64 than the upper band at $113.16. This positioning often precedes either a bounce from oversold levels or a breakdown below key support.
The moving average structure confirms the bearish bias, with AAVE trading below all major moving averages. The 7-day SMA at $93.48 provides immediate resistance, followed by the 20-day SMA at $99.40, which aligns closely with the identified strong resistance at $98.99.
Aave Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
The Aave forecast for a bullish reversal targets the $98-105 range, contingent on breaking above the immediate resistance at $94.60. A successful breach of the strong resistance at $98.99 would signal a potential trend change, opening the path toward the 20-day moving average at $99.40.
Technical confirmation for this bullish scenario would require RSI breaking above 40 and MACD histogram turning positive. The proximity to the lower Bollinger Band at $85.64 provides tactical support for a potential bounce toward the middle band at $99.40.
Bearish Scenario
Should bears maintain control, AAVE price prediction models suggest a test of the strong support at $85.11. A breakdown below this level could trigger accelerated selling toward the lower Bollinger Band at $85.64, with potential for further decline to the $75-80 range.
Risk factors include continued broader crypto market weakness and reduced DeFi activity, which could pressure AAVE’s fundamental value proposition. The significant gap between current price and the 200-day moving average at $168.83 indicates the potential for extended consolidation at lower levels.
Should You Buy AAVE? Entry Strategy
For aggressive traders, the current oversold conditions present a tactical buying opportunity near $89-91, with a tight stop-loss below $85.11. Conservative investors should wait for confirmation above $94.60 before considering entry.
A dollar-cost averaging approach between $85-95 may prove effective given the high volatility, as indicated by the ATR of $4.95. Risk management remains crucial, with position sizing limited to 2-3% of portfolio given the uncertain technical outlook.
Conclusion
The AAVE price prediction suggests a challenging near-term environment with potential for recovery by early May. While oversold conditions may trigger a relief bounce toward $98-105, the overall technical structure remains bearish until proven otherwise above key resistance levels.
Traders should monitor the RSI for divergences and MACD for momentum shifts, as these could provide early signals of trend changes. The Aave forecast carries medium confidence given the mixed technical signals and lack of recent catalyst events.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are inherently speculative and subject to high volatility. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct thorough research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
Lido DAO (LDO) trades at $0.32 with neutral RSI at 51.01. Technical analysis suggests potential breakout to $0.36-$0.40 resistance zone within two weeks if current support holds.
Lido DAO (LDO) has captured significant attention from crypto analysts as the liquid staking protocol token consolidates around $0.32. With recent technical developments and analyst predictions pointing toward potential upside, our comprehensive LDO price prediction examines the key factors that could drive the token toward $0.36-$0.40 targets in the coming weeks.
Recent analyst coverage has been notably bullish on LDO’s technical setup. James Ding provided an updated analysis on April 8, 2026, stating: “LDO shows bullish momentum with RSI at 56.06 and price near Bollinger Band resistance. Technical analysis suggests $0.36-$0.40 targets within two weeks if current support holds.”
Rebeca Moen shared a similar outlook on April 6, 2026: “LDO trades at $0.32 with bullish momentum building. Technical analysis suggests potential breakout to $0.34-$0.36 resistance zone within two weeks if current support holds.”
Zach Anderson offered a more conservative Lido DAO forecast on April 4, 2026: “Lido DAO trades at $0.32 with neutral momentum. Technical analysis suggests potential test of $0.34 upper Bollinger Band resistance within two weeks if RSI maintains above 50.”
The consensus among these analysts points to a potential breakout above the $0.34 resistance level, with targets ranging from $0.34 to $0.40 over the next two weeks.
LDO Technical Analysis Breakdown
Current technical indicators present a mixed but increasingly bullish picture for LDO. The token trades at $0.32, experiencing a -4.22% decline in the past 24 hours but maintaining crucial support levels.
RSI Analysis: The 14-period RSI sits at 51.01, placing LDO in neutral territory with room for upward movement before reaching overbought conditions. This positioning suggests potential for continued bullish momentum without immediate selling pressure.
MACD Indicators: The MACD line at 0.0028 remains close to the signal line (0.0028), with a histogram reading of 0.0000 indicating bearish momentum in the short term. However, this tight convergence often precedes significant directional moves.
Bollinger Bands: LDO’s position at 0.62 within the Bollinger Bands (where 0 represents the lower band and 1 the upper band) shows the token trading in the upper portion of its recent range. The upper band at $0.34 serves as immediate resistance, while the lower band at $0.28 provides downside support.
Moving Average Convergence: The convergence of short-term moving averages (SMA 7: $0.32, SMA 20: $0.31, SMA 50: $0.31) around current price levels suggests a potential breakout point. However, the significant gap to the SMA 200 at $0.60 indicates LDO remains well below its longer-term average.
Lido DAO Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
In the bullish case for our LDO price prediction, a break above the immediate resistance at $0.33 could trigger momentum toward the upper Bollinger Band at $0.34. Sustained movement above this level would target the analyst consensus range of $0.36-$0.40.
Key technical confirmations needed for the bullish scenario include RSI moving above 55, MACD histogram turning positive, and daily trading volume exceeding the current 24-hour average of $1.67 million. A close above $0.34 on strong volume would validate the bullish breakout scenario.
Bearish Scenario
The bearish case for this Lido DAO forecast centers on a failure to hold current support levels. A break below $0.31 could trigger selling toward the lower Bollinger Band at $0.28, with further downside targeting the strong support zone around $0.30.
Risk factors include continued MACD bearish divergence, RSI falling below 45, and overall crypto market weakness. The significant distance to the 200-day moving average at $0.60 also suggests potential for deeper corrections if broader market conditions deteriorate.
Should You Buy LDO? Entry Strategy
Based on current technical analysis, potential entry points for LDO include:
Conservative Entry: Wait for a pullback to $0.30-$0.31 support zone, offering better risk-reward ratios with stop-loss placement below $0.29.
Aggressive Entry: Current levels around $0.32 for traders confident in the bullish breakout scenario, with stop-loss below $0.30.
Breakout Entry: Above $0.34 confirmation for momentum traders, targeting the $0.36-$0.40 range with stop-loss at $0.32.
Risk management remains crucial given the 14-day ATR of $0.02, indicating significant daily volatility that could impact position sizing decisions.
Conclusion
Our comprehensive LDO price prediction suggests potential upside to the $0.36-$0.40 range over the next two weeks, supported by analyst consensus and technical indicators showing neutral-to-bullish momentum. The convergence of moving averages around current price levels creates a decision point that could determine near-term direction.
However, traders should remain cautious given the current bearish MACD histogram and recent 24-hour decline. The key level to watch remains $0.34, where a sustained breakout would validate the bullish scenario outlined by recent analyst predictions.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions involve significant risk and uncertainty. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
Bitcoin is showing signs of bottoming out, but some analysts say a final shakeout below $60,000 is still possible over the next few months.
Several major altcoins are showing early signs of buying, but the bulls have a lot of work to do before a trend change is signaled.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose above the $72,000 level on Tuesday following the announcement of a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. Although the bulls could not achieve a close above $72,000, a positive sign was that the buyers had not ceded much ground to the bears. That suggested the bulls were holding on to their positions as they anticipated the recovery to continue.
Several analysts said that BTC is showing signs of bottoming out. Crypto trader Quantum Ascend said in a post on X that BTC’s stochastic relative strength index (RSI) indicator is at the “exact same point on the daily as it was in 2022” before the price sprinted higher.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView
A slightly different view was put forth by Alphractal founder and CEO Joao Wedson, who said in a post on X that the bear trend may be ending but BTC may witness “a sharp move like a –$15K shakeout” over the next six months.
Could BTC and select major altcoins extend their relief rally? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price prediction
BTC cleared the moving averages and the $72,000 resistance on Tuesday, indicating solid buying by the bulls.
Sellers are expected to defend the $72,000 to $76,000 zone with all their might, as a close above it would complete a bullish ascending triangle pattern. If that happens, the BTC/USDT pair may skyrocket to $84,000.
The first sign of weakness will be a close below the moving averages, suggesting that the bears remain sellers on rallies. A close below the support line would invalidate the positive setup, increasing the risk of a fall to the crucial $62,500 to $60,000 support zone.
Ether price prediction
Ether (ETH) turned up from the 50-day simple moving average ($2,059) on Tuesday and surged above the $2,200 resistance.
The 20-day exponential moving average ($2,110) has started to turn up, and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the upside. There is resistance at the $2,400 level, but if the bulls overcome it, the up move may extend to $2,800.
Time is running out for the bears. They will have to swiftly yank the ETH price below the moving averages to signal a comeback. The ETH/USDT pair may fall to $1,918 and potentially to the $1,750 support.
XRP price prediction
XRP’s (XRP) bounce off the $1.27 level reached the moving averages, which is a crucial resistance to watch out for.
If buyers thrust the XRP/USDT pair above the moving average, it clears the path for a rally to the breakdown level of $1.61 and then to the downtrend line of the descending channel pattern. Sellers will attempt to halt the up move at the downtrend line, as a close above it points to a potential trend change.
On the downside, a close below the $1.27 level signals that the bears remain in control. That increases the risk of a drop to the $1.11 level and eventually to the support line of the descending channel pattern near $1.
BNB price prediction
BNB (BNB) has been consolidating between $570 and $687 for several days, indicating buying near the support and selling close to the resistance.
The flattish moving averages and the RSI near the midpoint suggest that the range-bound action may continue for a few more days. If bulls pierce the moving averages, the BNB/USDT pair may reach the $687 level, where the bears are expected to step in.
The next trending move is expected to begin on a close above the $687 resistance or below the $570 support. If the $687 level is taken out, the pair may soar to $730 and later to $790. On the other hand, a close below $570 may sink the pair to $500.
Solana price prediction
Solana (SOL) is attempting to rise above the moving averages, but the bears have held their ground.
The flattish moving averages and the RSI just below the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears. If the SOL price rises above the moving averages, the next stop may be the $98 level. Buyers will have to secure a close above the $98 resistance to gain the upper hand.
On the downside, a break and close below the $76 support tilts the advantage in favor of the bears. That increases the risk of a drop to $67 and subsequently to $50.
Dogecoin price prediction
Dogecoin (DOGE) rose above the moving averages on Tuesday, but the recovery is facing resistance at the downtrend line.
Sellers will attempt to strengthen their position by pulling the DOGE price below the $0.09 level. If they manage to do that, the DOGE/USDT pair will complete a descending triangle pattern. The pattern target of this bearish setup is $0.06.
On the contrary, a close above the downtrend line invalidates the negative setup. That suggests the bears have given up, opening the gates for a rally to $0.11 and then to the $0.12 level.
Hyperliquid price prediction
Hyperliquid (HYPE) closed above the 20-day EMA ($37.28) on Tuesday, signaling that the correction may be over.
The bulls will attempt to push the HYPE price to the $41.59 to $43.76 zone, where the sellers are expected to mount a solid defense. If buyers clear the overhead barrier, the HYPE/USDT pair may rally to $50.
This positive view will be negated in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the 50-day SMA ($34.80). Such a move indicates that higher levels continue to attract sellers. The pair may then tumble to the $29.42 level.
If buyers pierce the 50-day SMA, the ADA/USDT pair may reach the downtrend line of the descending channel pattern. Sellers are expected to fiercely defend the downtrend line as a close above it signals a potential trend change.
Sellers are likely to have other plans. They will attempt to aggressively defend the downtrend line and pull the ADA price below the moving averages. If they do that, the pair may extend its stay inside the channel for a few more days.
Bitcoin Cash price prediction
Buyers are attempting to sustain Bitcoin Cash (BCH) above the breakdown level of $443 but are expected to face significant resistance from the bears.
If the BCH price turns down from the moving averages and breaks below the $420 level, it signals the resumption of the downward move. That may sink the BCH/USDT pair to the $375 level.
The first sign of strength will be a close above the moving averages. That suggests the market has rejected the break below the $443 level. The pair may then rally to the $520 to $540 zone.
Chainlink price prediction
Chainlink (LINK) closed above the moving averages on Tuesday, opening the doors for a rally to the resistance of the $8 to $10 range.
Sellers are expected to defend the $10 level, keeping the LINK price inside the range for some more time.
Buyers will have to propel and maintain the price above the $10 resistance to gain the upper hand. That may drive the LINK/USDT pair to $10.94 and thereafter to the $11.61 level. On the downside, a break and close below the $8 level signals an advantage to bears. The pair risks falling to $7.15 and then to the pattern target of $6.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Harvey AI expands its legal automation platform to serve venture capital and emerging company lawyers, promising 10 hours saved per attorney weekly.
Harvey AI is making a direct play for the venture capital legal market, rolling out specialized workflow tools designed to handle everything from SAFE note reviews to IPO preparation. The legal AI platform claims law firms using its system are saving up to 10 hours per attorney per week on financing deals.
The company’s pitch centers on automating the repetitive grunt work that dominates startup law: incorporation checklists, term sheet comparisons, cap table reconciliation, and the endless document review that accompanies priced funding rounds.
What Harvey Actually Does
The platform targets five distinct stages of a startup’s legal lifecycle. For new company formation, Harvey generates jurisdiction-specific incorporation checklists and helps attorneys draft founder communications that don’t read like legal jargon. During early financing rounds, the system can review SAFEs and convertible notes, flagging key terms like valuation caps, discounts, and pro rata rights across multiple documents simultaneously.
Where things get interesting is in priced rounds. Harvey compares proposed term sheets against both market standards and a firm’s own precedent database, theoretically catching deviations that junior associates might miss during late-night document reviews. The platform also handles due diligence by extracting change-of-control clauses and flagging cap table inconsistencies before they blow up a deal.
The Efficiency Claim
Cole-Frieman & Mallon, a law firm using Harvey for venture financing work, reports the 10-hour weekly savings figure. That’s a significant productivity boost if accurate, though independent verification of such claims remains difficult in the legal tech space.
Harvey’s “Shared Spaces” feature attempts something more ambitious: creating a collaborative workspace where founders and their lawyers can work from centralized documents. Whether startup founders actually want another platform to manage during fundraising chaos is an open question.
The Bigger Picture
For crypto and Web3 startups navigating funding rounds, AI-assisted legal review could meaningfully reduce costs during capital-intensive periods. Legal fees remain a significant burn item for early-stage companies, and tools that compress review timelines might free up capital for actual building.
The platform also handles exit preparation, including M&A approval requirements and cap table cleanup—processes that have historically generated substantial billable hours. Whether law firms embrace tools that could cannibalize their revenue model remains the central tension in legal AI adoption.
Harvey hasn’t disclosed pricing or the number of firms currently using the ECVC-specific features.
News of a minimum two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel and Iran sent risk assets higher in an instant, with the S&P 500 up by more than 2.5% at the open.
WTI crude oil declined to as low as $91 per barrel as oil-supply crisis fears eased and traffic began to resume through the Strait of Hormuz. This came despite reports of an attack on a Saudi oil pipeline.
CFDs on WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
“The S&P 500 is now set to open above 6,800, trading just 2.9% away from a new record high. The index has added +$1.6 TRILLION today,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in its latest market coverage on X.
Among Bitcoin market participants, the relief was also palpable.
“I mentioned earlier that a ceasefire would be a clear direction on the markets. It happened,” crypto trader Michaël Van de Poppe wrote in an X response.
“Bitcoin breaks through the crucial $71K level and builds a bullish structure. Oil is down and the Strait is open, which means that there’s a mean reversion play active on Bitcoin.”
BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Michaël Van de Poppe
Van de Poppe described the need to hold support at $69,500 as “crucial.”
“That would strengthen the entire theory of a higher lows, higher highs and continues the momentum upwards and is likely going to fall alongside a new all-time high on the Nasdaq,” he added.
More inflation volatility on the horizon
Trader Daan Crypto Trades meanwhile said that $72,000, a sticking point in recent weeks, needed to be cleared.
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on other traders’ concerns about overall BTC price strength, which argued that Bitcoin bulls “still have a lot of work to do.”
The remainder of the week will see key US inflation releases, these set to show the initial impact of the Iran conflict and spark characteristic risk-asset volatility.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, including forward-looking statements, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content.
Zcash (ZEC) rallied after President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire deal with Iran, leading gains in a broader relief rally across global risk markets.
Key takeaways:
A 2021-style fractal warns ZEC price could fall 40% toward in the coming weeks.
Over $50 million in long leverage sits below current prices, leaving ZEC exposed to a possible crash.
ZEC/USD vs. XMR/USD and DASH/USD price performance in the past five days. Source: TradingView
ZEC rally risks becoming a 2021-style bull trap
The privacy coin rose over 30% in the past 24 hours to $336.50 on Tuesday, its highest level since January. Its top rivals also climbed, with Monero (XMR) up 3% and Dash (DASH) up 8%.
ZEC’s latest rebound is starting to resemble the setup that followed its 2021 peak. Back then, it entered a prolonged bear cycle after peaking near $392.
During this correction, ZEC underwent multiple sharp bounces after testing its 0.238 Fibonacci retracement line at around $85, only to see its upside momentum weakening underneath a descending trendline resistance.
Zcash’s current setup looks similar. Its 0.236 Fib level near $197 is again acting as strong support, while a descending trendline continues to cap upside attempts.
ZEC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView
A continued rebound could lift ZEC toward its 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level near $370, which also lines up with the descending trendline resistance.
But the rally could lose steam if bulls fail to break above the trend line, raising the risk of a pullback toward the $197–$200 support zone. In that case, the current move may start to look like the 2021 bull trap setup.
Conversely, a decisive breakout above the trendline may trigger a falling wedge breakout setup, with a measured upside target at around $1,200.
ZEC/USDT weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
In the past, multiple analysts, including BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and Alphractal CEO and Co-Founder Joao Wedson, have predicted the ZEC price to reach $1,000 or higher.
ZEC liquidation data raises downside risks
Zcash’s liquidation heatmap points to greater downside risk in the coming weeks.
For instance, Binance’s ZEC/USDT contracts may see $3.81 million worth of cumulative short liquidations if the price rallies above $380 in the coming weeks.
In comparison, roughly $50.56 million in cumulative long positions could be wiped out if the price drops below $260.
Markets tend to move toward zones where many leveraged positions are concentrated. In ZEC’s case, the larger concentration sits below the current price, where long liquidations far exceed potential short liquidations above.
The heatmap also highlights $305–$306 as the largest single liquidation pocket, with about $1.76 million in leveraged positions clustered in that range. That makes it an important near-term level to watch.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, including forward-looking statements, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content.
Crypto’s push for instant settlement is creating a capital inefficiency problem, forcing trading firms to fund every transaction in full and raising concerns about how the market can scale as volumes grow.
In practice, that usually means that firms cannot offset what they owe against what they are owed, forcing them to move more capital than necessary to settle trades.
Ethan Buchman, founder of Cycles Protocol and a co-founder of Cosmos, says crypto markets are “asset-brained.” He argues it treats the financial system like a global stock market where value is constantly moved and swapped.
“But that misses the whole other side of the balance sheet, which is liabilities, and every movement of assets is in service of discharging a liability,” Buchman told Cointelegraph.
Crypto optimized for instant settlement, stripping out the batching and netting that let traditional finance conserve liquidity. At the base layer, that design creates pressure to reintroduce clearing for the industry to scale further.
Clearing is the process of reconciling and netting obligations before settlement, allowing participants to offset what they owe against what they are owed, so only the difference needs to move.
For example, if Alice owes Bob $100 and Bob owes Alice $90, clearing means Alice only pays $10 instead of moving the full amounts both ways.
“A lot of people look at T+2 settlement and think it’s inefficient and should be instant — that misses the point. Some of that delay exists to give time for batching and clearing,” Buchman said.
This happens at scale through clearinghouses like the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation, which act as central counterparties that net obligations and manage settlement risk. As a result, financial systems can compress large volumes of transactions into much smaller net flows.
Before central banks, merchants at European trade fairs settled debts by netting obligations across multiple parties, reducing the need to move physical money. Over time, these practices evolved into more formal clearing systems.
Buchman also pointed to later experiments in Yugoslavia and Slovenia as examples of multilateral netting at scale.
Multilateral netting cleared up to 7% to 8% of GDP in obligations during Slovenia’s early 1990s crisis. Source: Fleischman, Dini and Littera (2020)
Following independence in 1991, Slovenia turned to multilateral set-off systems to manage liquidity during periods of economic stress. As inflation surged and output contracted, authorities used centralized payment infrastructure to coordinate obligations across firms, netting debts before settlement.
The system, later formalized through software known as “TETRIS,” applied liquidity-saving mechanisms to reduce how much capital needed to move, helping businesses continue operating despite widespread payment constraints.
Crypto’s instant settlement locks up liquidity
Instead of designing systems that batch and net obligations, most crypto markets are built around instant, atomic settlement, where each transaction is finalized independently.
For example, put simply, if Alice sends 10 ETH to Bob for a trade, that transfer is fully settled onchain at execution. If Bob later owes Alice 9 ETH from another trade, that is processed as a separate transaction rather than being netted against the first. Instead of settling a 1 ETH difference, the system processes 19 ETH of transfers across two transactions.
Across many trades, this forces participants to continuously move and pre-fund capital, even when their net exposure is close to flat.
“That means you need way more capital in the system than you otherwise would,” Buchman said.
Instant settlement removes counterparty risk, but it also removes the ability to offset positions across a broader network of participants. That compression layer is largely missing in crypto, which means more capital is required to support the same level of activity.
Overcollateralization ensures instant settlement and reduces counterparty risk, but ties up capital that cannot be netted. Source: Aave
“There is a kind of ceiling on how much trade you can do, depending on how much actual assets and capital you have to meet it,” Buchman said.
“A lot of the firms are doing a lot of trading on credit with each other, but then when it comes time for settlement, they have to scramble for the assets,” he said.
That forces crypto companies to overcollateralize positions on exchanges and lending platforms, tying up capital that could otherwise be deployed elsewhere. In periods of stress, the problem becomes more acute, as firms are left trying to meet settlement obligations while liquidity tightens.
The missing primitive is clearing, now being rebuilt without intermediaries
Replicating clearing in its traditional form requires building a central counterparty. The model may sit uneasily with an industry aiming to replace financial intermediaries with decentralized infrastructure.
Clearing entities are among the most heavily regulated and trust-intensive institutions in finance, Buchman said. They absorb default risk, stand between participants and require deep coordination to function.
Crypto avoided that model and instead fragmented clearing. Bilateral arrangements and off-exchange settlement venues introduced limited netting, but mostly within closed networks of trust, leaving the core problem unresolved.
Buchman and Cycles propose a coordination layer that nets obligations across participants before settlement, without acting as a central counterparty or taking custody of funds.
Its effectiveness, however, depends on broad participation and visibility into obligations, which may be difficult to achieve in a fragmented market where firms operate across venues and are reluctant to share exposures. Without a central counterparty, the system also does not absorb default risk, leaving participants to manage counterparty exposure themselves.
Coordinating multilateral netting across independent actors could also introduce operational complexity, particularly during periods of market stress when liquidity is already constrained.
Buchman argues this can be addressed using cryptographic techniques, with obligations posted privately onchain, netted in software and verified using zero-knowledge proofs.
In that sense, the trade-off for crypto is that trust in an institution is replaced by trust in the protocol’s design.
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AAVE shows bullish momentum at $95.52 (+4.91%) with RSI neutral at 38. Technical analysis suggests potential rally to $110-115 resistance zone within 3 weeks if current support holds.
While specific analyst predictions are limited for the current timeframe, on-chain metrics suggest growing institutional interest in DeFi protocols. According to recent market analysis, earlier 2026 forecasts projected AAVE targets ranging from $185 to $196, though these predictions preceded the current consolidation phase.
The absence of fresh KOL predictions indicates market uncertainty, but technical momentum appears to be building as AAVE trades above its 7-day moving average of $94.58 for the first time in several sessions.
AAVE Technical Analysis Breakdown
AAVE’s current price action shows encouraging signs of a potential reversal. Trading at $95.52 with a robust 4.91% daily gain, the token has broken above its 7-day SMA ($94.58) and is approaching the EMA 12 level at $97.08.
The RSI reading of 37.99 sits in neutral territory, providing room for upward movement without entering overbought conditions. While the MACD histogram remains flat at 0.0000, this suggests bearish momentum is potentially exhausting rather than accelerating.
Bollinger Bands analysis reveals AAVE is positioned at 0.31 within the bands, closer to the lower band ($86.98) than the upper band ($114.28). This positioning often precedes mean reversion moves toward the middle band at $100.63.
The daily ATR of $5.20 indicates moderate volatility, which could support a sustained move toward resistance levels without excessive choppiness.
Aave Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
If AAVE maintains support above $92.57 (pivot point), the primary upside target is the immediate resistance at $100.08. A break above this level would likely trigger momentum toward the strong resistance zone at $104.65, followed by the 20-day SMA at $100.63.
The ultimate bullish target sits at the upper Bollinger Band near $114.28, representing a 19.6% upside from current levels. This AAVE price prediction requires sustained buying pressure and broader DeFi sector strength.
Bearish Scenario
Failure to hold the $92.57 pivot point would expose the immediate support at $88.00. A breakdown below this level could accelerate selling toward the strong support zone at $80.49, representing a 15.7% downside risk.
The lower Bollinger Band at $86.98 serves as a critical technical floor, with a breach potentially signaling extended weakness in this Aave forecast.
Should You Buy AAVE? Entry Strategy
Current levels around $95-96 offer a reasonable risk-reward setup for traders seeking exposure to DeFi recovery plays. Conservative entries should target the $92-94 range on any pullback to the pivot support area.
Stop-loss placement below $88.00 (immediate support) limits downside risk to approximately 8-10% from current levels. More aggressive traders might use $85.00 as their risk management level, just below the daily low.
Profit-taking strategies should consider the $104-108 range for partial exits, with final targets near the upper Bollinger Band around $114.
Conclusion
This AAVE price prediction suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for the coming weeks. Technical indicators support a potential rally toward $110-115 if the token can establish support above current levels and broader crypto markets remain stable.
The neutral RSI and stabilizing MACD provide technical confirmation for this Aave forecast, though traders should monitor the $88 support level closely for any signs of weakness.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are inherently speculative and subject to extreme volatility. This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and risk only what you can afford to lose.
