Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded more than 28% from its February low below $60,000, and a mix of technical, liquidity, and on-chain signals suggests the recovery may still have room to run.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin is holding a support zone that has previously triggered 8%–10% rebounds.
• Binance stablecoin inflows are rising, boosting fresh deployable liquidity for crypto markets.

BTC hits support with 8%–10% rebound history

Since early April, Bitcoin has been trading within a well-defined ascending channel, with price consistently respecting both rising support and resistance trend lines.

Each test of the lower boundary has triggered 8%–10% rebounds, often driving BTC back toward, or even beyond, the upper trend line. The current setup mirrors those prior cycles.

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: TradingView

BTC is now consolidating near the channel’s lower support zone around $76,800–$77,500, which also coincides with the 20-period (green) and 50-period EMAs (red) on the four-hour chart, a key dynamic support level in ongoing uptrends.

A rebound from this range increase the odds of BTC’s price hitting the upper boundary near $82,700, up by roughly 7.70% from current prices. This level coincides with the 1.618 Fibonacci retracement level.

Related: Bitcoin shorts create $1.4B liquidation risk: Is a price squeeze to $80K next?

Conversely, a breakdown risks BTC price dropping toward $73,600, a level aligning with the 0.786 Fib line and the 200-4H EMA (blue).

Binance’s stablecoin inflows boost BTC rally potential

Liquidity conditions are also rising, which improves the technical setup.

Binance has recorded nearly $6 billion in stablecoin inflows across March and April, including $3.5 billion in April alone, marking a sharp reversal from the previous $7.6 billion in net outflows, data from CryptoQuant shows.

Binance monthly stablecoin netflow. Source: CryptoQuant

This is important for the bulls because stablecoin inflows represent deployable capital. In other words, liquidity is returning to exchanges, suggesting traders are preparing to re-enter risk despite US–Iran tensions and elevated oil prices.

Bitcoin MVRV fractal hints at rally above $92,000

Bitcoin’s latest rebound has pushed its price back above the MVRV -0.5 standard deviation band (green) at around $72,750. This band has often acted as support and resistance across previous market cycles.

The MVRV bands measure how far Bitcoin’s spot price has moved from investors’ aggregate on-chain cost basis.

BTC MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands vs. price. Source: Glassnode

When BTC climbs back above a lower deviation band, the market is no longer trading at a deep discount to its realized value, often opening room for a move toward the next band.

A similar reclamation of the green band as support in past downturns, including the 2014 and 2018 bear markets, preceded short-term rallies toward the mean band (yellow), as shown below.

BTC MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands vs. price. Source: Glassnode

That puts Bitcoin’s next potential upside target near $94,500 if history repeats.

The signal does not confirm a new bull market, but it does strengthen the case for a bear-market relief rally. On-chain analyst Willy Woo said Bitcoin is still forming a bottom, with the $65,000 level acting as a key floor.

A decisive break above the $79,000 cost basis of recent investors is needed to strengthen the recovery, said Woo, with the next six weeks likely to determine whether the move can evolve into a sustained trend reversal.

The next test for BTC is cleanly breaking the cost basis of recent investors (79k).

I give it 30% odds on doing this on this attempt.

Key takeaways:

• Persistent spot market accumulation from Bitcoin ETFs and Strategy provides a price floor for Bitcoin and threatens to trigger a short squeeze.
• Negative funding rates and cautious options skews could trap bears if the Federal Reserve policy shifts or high oil prices trigger increased inflation.

Bitcoin (BTC) price has sustained levels above $76,000 for the past week, distancing itself from its year low at $60,500. The recent bullish momentum came as crude oil prices jumped above $100 and the S&P 500 hit new trading highs, but futures market data may point to a short-term rally-ending outcome for Bitcoin.

A total of $1.4 billion in leveraged short positions near $80,000 has been built over the past 48 hours, according to CoinGlass data, and Bitcoin’s rejection at $79,500 has raised alarm.

Estimated Bitcoin futures liquidation levels, USD. Source: CoinGlass

Federal Reserve decision, inflation data may push Bitcoin above $80,000

The lack of investors’ appetite for bullish Bitcoin leverage has been evident, but a bear trap could spring if the US Federal Reserve adopts a less restrictive monetary policy or if investors anticipate higher inflation, which would reduce the expected net returns from fixed-income assets.

Bitcoin perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: Laevitas

The Bitcoin perpetual futures annualized funding rate has remained mostly negative over the past two weeks, a typical sign of growing bearish confidence. Curiously, this happened while Bitcoin’s price jumped to $78,000 from $72,000 on April 9 and most of those bets are at a loss at $76,700. A rally above $80,000 would likely force traders to close their positions.

Data shows investors are no longer anticipating interest rate hikes from the Fed, even as Brent crude prices have reclaimed the $100 level. The pressure from high energy prices has a cascading impact on inflation expectations, but the Fed is also concerned with the weakening job market and economic growth.

Implied target rate probabilities for Sept. 16 Fed meeting. Source: CME FedWatch tool

US government bond futures contracts presently indicate 20% odds of interest rates decreasing by September, marking a complete turnaround from one month prior. Traders realized that the Fed is in a tough spot, hence the 3.95% yield on 5-year US Treasury became less appealing. An interest rate cut exerts upward pressure on inflation.

Sustained spot Bitcoin buying supports BTC’s bullish momentum

Bitcoin’s bullish momentum has been driven by the spot market, evidenced by Strategy (MSTR US) adding $255 million in BTC between April 20 to April 26 and the $824 million net inflows into US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Bitcoin buyers continued to accumulate despite the failed attempts to hold above $79,000.

Related: Critical Bitcoin trend change in works, but analysts say daily close above $80K required

To determine if professional Bitcoin traders are effectively leaning bearish, one should assess the options markets.

Bitcoin options 30-day delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas

The Bitcoin options delta skew shows put (sell) options trading at an 11% premium relative to call (buy) options, consistent with a bearish market. Whales and market makers are uncomfortable with downside risk, which reinforces the thesis of a potential bear trap if Bitcoin reclaims $80,000 in the near term.

Further Bitcoin bullish momentum remains far from certain, but as long as spot market demand remains strong, the pressure on short positions may continue to mount. If the current accumulation trend persists alongside a softening of Federal Reserve policy, the resulting liquidity squeeze could easily propel the price well beyond the $80,000 resistance level.

Ether (ETH) fell 3.4% to $2,287 on Monday, after its fourth rejection at the $2,400 level since April 14. The price continues to trade below the 100-day moving average, with over $2.5 billion in liquidation risk concentrated near the $2,150 support zone.

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe also flagged weakness in Ether relative to Bitcoin, raising doubts about the strength of any near-term uptrend. 

Repeat rejections at $2,400 cap ETH’s upside

Ether has failed to break $2,400 four times over the past two weeks, forming a clear triple top pattern on the daily chart. Each retest saw a loss of strength near that level, suggesting supply absorption by sellers.

The 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $2,350 continues to act as a dynamic resistance. The price has not held above it on the one-day chart, keeping upside attempts short-lived. 

ETH/USDT on the one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The support at $2,150 now carries more weight. The level previously acted as resistance and could be tested as a base in the coming days. A move below it opens the door to deeper downside levels.

Liquidation data adds pressure to this zone, with $2.5 billion in leveraged longs sitting below $2,150. A break below this level could trigger forced selling into the $2,050 to $1,900 range.

Ether liquidation map. Source: CoinGlass

MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe noted weakness in the ETH/BTC pair. The ratio dropped below 0.032 BTC, removing a key support level tied to prior continuation attempts. 

The ETH/BTC ratio also slipped under the 21-period moving average, signaling fading relative strength against Bitcoin. The next higher-time frame level sits near 0.026 BTC, where buyers previously stepped in.

ETH/BTC chart analysis on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

Related: BitMine acquires 101,000 ETH despite $6.5B in unrealized losses

ETH futures positions hint at a market reset

On Binance, Ether’s open interest (OI) has dropped to $2.58 billion, matching levels seen when ETH traded near $2,200 earlier this month. The decline points to a reset in leverage following the recent positioning buildup.

ETH: Binance cumulative net taker volume. Source: CryptoQuant

The funding rate offers a clearer signal, sitting near -0.013%, the lowest reading since February. The short positions dominate new activity while earlier long exposure has been reduced.

Crypto analyst Amr Taha noted that this combination places ETH in a shorts-heavy setup with lower leverage. If price holds near current levels, the imbalance between positioning and price could tighten, leading to a breakout sooner than later.

The key zone centers on $2,150, where liquidation risks and the current technical level converge on the daily chart.

Related: ETH price up 10% in April, so why is Ethereum Foundation selling?

Bitcoin (BTC) whales holding between 1,000-10,000 BTC have increased their BTC exposure over the past five months, with the total balance reaching 3.09 million, a level last seen on November 11, 2025.

Short-term data suggest that Bitcoin traders may move toward existing liquidity at $73,700, but futures market activity and the longer-term market structure hint at higher levels above $80,000. 

Bitcoin whales and institutions rebuild BTC exposure

Bitcoin wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have been steadily accumulating since December, adding approximately 240,000 BTC to their balances.

This brings the cohort’s total holdings to around 3.09 million BTC, recovering to pre-correction levels last seen before Bitcoin’s 18% pullback in November 2025, when the price declined to $85,000 from $103,500.

Total BTC balance of large holders. Source: CryptoQuant

The long-term holders (LTHs) continue to absorb supply at a steady pace. LTHs’ balance has reached 14.57 million BTC, aligning with the prior accumulation peaks. The distribution activity was 42,100 BTC sold over the past 30 days, one of the lowest readings in 2026.

BTC long-term holder flow. Source: CryptoQuant

The Crypto Market Compass report from Bitwise highlights a similar trend across institutional flows. Over the last month, the institutional investors have added about 92,900 BTC.

The onchain realized cap flows show only 14,900 BTC in net selling during the same period. This report indicates that the demand from larger players has outpaced sell-side pressure, tightening the available BTC supply.

Rise in BTC institutional demand. Source: Bitwise

Related: First 21-week trend line reclaim since October 2025: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

BTC double top pattern indicates a short-term liquidity sweep at $74K

The four-hour chart shows a potential double top forming near $79,400 after two quick rejections for BTC over the past week. The second pullback came late Sunday night, with weaker buy volumes, pointing to fading short-term momentum.

Currently at $77,731, the price may rotate toward liquidity pockets near $74,700 and $73,700.

BTC/USDT on the four-hour chart. Source: Coinelegraph/TradingView

The $74,700 level aligns with a prior consolidation range and sits just above the 100-period exponential moving average (EMA). A deeper move into $73,700 would test key higher-time-frame support and a prior higher-low range.

Holding above this zone keeps the broader trend intact and maintains room for a bullish continuation.

The derivatives market activity is adding short-term pressure to Bitcoin price. Crypto analyst Darkfost noted that over $1.2 billion in sell volume hit Binance within an hour, contributing to a sharp intraday decline on Sunday.

The funding rates have also stayed deeply negative, reaching -7% on a 30-day basis, one of the lowest readings ever recorded. 

Bitcoin: taker sell volume on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

However, such positioning may create conditions for a short squeeze, in which crowded short positions unwind, driving the price higher. A move above $80,000 would invalidate the double-top signal and turn short-term momentum bullish again.

According to MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe, the price continues to hold key levels, with upside targets of $85,000-$88,000 still valid for May. The liquidity range between $74,700 and $73,700 now serves as a reset zone, where BTC demand could be tested ahead of another breakout attempt above $80,000. 

Related: Michael Saylor’s Strategy adds 3.2K Bitcoin at nearly $78K per BTC