For more than a decade, Bitcoin’s largest holders have acted as the unseen forces behind many of the market’s biggest surges and deepest crashes.
These so-called whales have always held outsized influence, but their behavior throughout 2025 suggests a major shift is underway that may fundamentally reshape how Bitcoin (BTC) behaves as we head into 2026.
What some traders viewed as a turning point came on Oct. 10, a day many traders now view as the unofficial end of the most recent crypto bull market. While billions in retail positions were wiped out in minutes, one early Bitcoin whale walked away with roughly $200 million in profit, according to onchain data.
At the same time, large, long-inactive wallets suddenly sprang back to life, moving thousands of BTC for the first time in years. The timing raised a familiar but uncomfortable question: How much power do whales really have over Bitcoin’s price, and what can their behavior tell us about the next phase of the market?
Cointelegraph’s latest video delves into these questions, using onchain data and expert insights to examine both early “OG” whales and the newer class of institutional whales, including exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and publicly traded treasury companies.
We examine why OG whales have been selling heavily this year, how institutions absorbed that supply, and why institutional demand now appears to be slowing. We also explain why retail traders often misread whale activity and how these signals can lead to poor decisions.
To get the full analysis, watch the complete video on the Cointelegraph YouTube channel.
Tajikistan has criminalized the use of stolen electricity for cryptocurrency mining, introducing fines of up to $8,250 and prison sentences of up to eight years.
The move follows an energy crisis in which widespread power shortages and reportedly illegal mining have caused millions in losses and infrastructure damage.
The country joins a broader trend, as governments from Asia to the Middle East intensify crackdowns on unauthorized crypto mining to protect national power supplies.
Crypto mining may be shifting, with some operators moving toward renewable energy sources and more energy-efficient technologies.
On Dec. 3, 2025, Tajikistan’s parliament formally approved amendments to its criminal code that make it a criminal offense to use electricity illegally for cryptocurrency mining. The new law introduces Article 253(2), titled “Illegal use of electricity for the production of virtual assets.”
Under the new law, anyone found mining digital assets using stolen or unmetered electricity faces serious penalties. The basic offense carries fines ranging from about $1,650 to $4,070.
If the act is committed by a coordinated group, penalties rise to $4,125-$8,250, or two to five years in prison. In cases involving large-scale or organized operations, offenders may face up to eight years in prison.
The bill was presented to parliament by Attorney General Habibullo Vohidzoda, who warned that unregulated mining had already caused regional power outages, millions in losses and an uptick in related crimes. He told lawmakers that damages from illegal mining had reached about $3.52 million and that several criminal cases were under investigation.
Power shortages in Tajikistan and mounting pressure
Tajikistan’s decision comes amid one of the most severe energy crises the country has faced in recent years.
The country relies heavily on hydropower, and low water levels in reservoirs have forced authorities to ration electricity during the winter. In many areas, residents receive only two to four hours of power each day.
Officials say unlicensed mining farms are worsening the situation. These operations often connect to the national grid illegally or bypass meters to avoid paying for power. The result is not only significant financial losses but also serious damage to power infrastructure.
Member of Parliament Shukhrat Ganizoda told lawmakers that a typical application-specific integrated circuits (ASIC) mining device draws about 3.5 kilowatts (kW) of power, while more advanced models can draw up to 6 kW. He said large mining farms running thousands of these machines place an enormous strain on the grid. Ganizoda added that perpetrators often tamper with wiring and meters to cut costs and maximize profits.
He also noted that illegal mining can contribute to tax evasion, untraceable financial transactions and attempts to conceal or launder criminal proceeds. The new legislation, he emphasized, is designed to protect both the country’s economy and its energy security.
Once signed by President Emomali Rahmon and published in state media, the law will take effect.
Did you know? Under Tajikistan’s new Article 253(2), mining cryptocurrency using stolen power can carry a prison sentence of up to eight years.
A global wave of crypto mining crackdowns
Tajikistan’s move is part of a broader international shift. Around the world, governments are rethinking their stance on cryptocurrency mining as energy costs rise and grids become strained:
In Malaysia, authorities have uncovered thousands of illegal mining sites that siphoned off electricity worth more than $1 billion over the past few years.
In Kuwait, officials launched a nationwide operation in 2025 to shut down unauthorized mining farms after power shortages worsened. Electricity usage reportedly fell by more than 50% in one area following the crackdown.
Even in countries that once embraced mining, such as China and Kazakhstan, energy shortages and rising environmental concerns have led to tighter regulations and, in some cases, outright bans. Many of these governments now treat unauthorized mining as theft or economic sabotage rather than a simple administrative violation.
The common thread is clear: Where electricity is cheap, subsidized or poorly monitored, crypto mining tends to surge. When energy becomes scarce, regulators step in to protect the grid and ensure the public has access to essential power.
Why Tajikistan’s mining crackdown matters for energy policy
Tajikistan’s new law highlights how cryptocurrency mining has shifted from a financial curiosity to a matter of national infrastructure and energy policy. Mining Bitcoin (BTC) and other proof-of-work cryptocurrencies consumes large amounts of electricity, and when done illegally, it creates a double burden.
First, it drains limited energy resources that should be available to households and industry. Second, it deprives the state of revenue and raises maintenance costs as infrastructure is damaged. For countries with fragile power systems, this combination can be very hard to manage.
In Tajikistan, authorities hope that criminalizing unauthorized mining will deter offenders and help stabilize the power grid. The law also signals to investors and businesses that the government is serious about regulating digital asset activity.
The move comes as the country strengthens penalties for other forms of power theft and nonpayment. Those offenses can already result in fines of up to $9,900 or prison sentences of up to eight years.
How miners and the crypto industry may respond
The tightening of rules in Tajikistan and elsewhere is likely to accelerate what analysts call “mining migration.” As one country enforces tougher penalties, miners often relocate to jurisdictions with more lenient rules or cheaper energy.
This pattern has played out before. When China banned crypto mining in 2021, much of the industry shifted to countries such as Kazakhstan, the United States and Russia. But as some of those regions experienced grid strain, many have since reevaluated their stance.
Experts say the future of mining will increasingly depend on access to renewable or surplus power. Operations that rely on sustainable energy are less likely to attract regulatory scrutiny. Some blockchain networks are also moving toward proof-of-stake models, which typically require far less electricity.
For Tajikistan, the hope is that the new penalties will discourage illegal mining altogether rather than push it further underground.
Energy security is now crypto policy
Tajikistan’s decision underscores a growing recognition that crypto mining is not just about digital finance. It touches on energy security, infrastructure resilience and environmental policy.
By making illegal mining a criminal offense, the government aims to send a clear message that energy misuse will not be tolerated. In a country where electricity shortages regularly affect daily life, the measure is as much about fairness as it is about technology.
For miners worldwide, Tajikistan’s example is a reminder that cheap or free electricity comes at a cost. As more governments treat energy theft as a serious crime, the global map of crypto mining will continue to shift toward regions that can balance innovation with responsibility.
In Tajikistan, that balance now means one thing above all: In the country, mining with stolen or unmetered electricity can now trigger criminal penalties, including prison time.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
AAVE price prediction points to potential recovery toward $215-225 medium-term target, but must hold critical $190 support level with bullish MACD momentum building.
With AAVE trading at $194.75 and showing mixed technical signals, the cryptocurrency faces a critical juncture that could determine its direction over the coming weeks. Our comprehensive Aave forecast analysis reveals both bullish momentum indicators and key resistance levels that will shape the token’s near-term trajectory.
AAVE Price Prediction Summary
• AAVE short-term target (1 week): $207-$210 (+6-8%)
• Aave medium-term forecast (1 month): $215-$225 range
• Key level to break for bullish continuation: $207.16
• Critical support if bearish: $190.00
Recent Aave Price Predictions from Analysts
The latest AAVE price prediction landscape shows notable divergence among analysts. Blockchain.News maintains an optimistic medium-term AAVE price target of $215-$225, citing bullish MACD histogram readings and the token’s ability to hold above the crucial $190 support level. This aligns with our technical analysis showing strengthening momentum indicators.
Conversely, CoinMarketCap AI warns of potential downside below $195 in the short term, pointing to governance controversies that could weigh on sentiment. Yellow.com’s Aave forecast suggests a possible retreat to $230, though this appears to be a typo given current price levels, likely referring to a drop toward the $180-$190 zone based on double-top pattern analysis.
The consensus reveals a market at an inflection point, with medium-term bulls facing near-term technical headwinds.
AAVE Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Bullish Breakout
Current Aave technical analysis reveals several encouraging signals supporting our bullish AAVE price prediction. The MACD histogram reading of 1.3692 indicates building positive momentum, while the RSI at 51.88 sits in neutral territory with room for upward movement before reaching overbought conditions.
The Bollinger Bands positioning tells a compelling story, with AAVE trading at 0.67 of the band width, suggesting the token is approaching the upper band at $204.87 but hasn’t reached extreme overbought levels. This positioning often precedes continuation moves higher when supported by volume confirmation.
Volume analysis shows $12.17 million in 24-hour Binance spot trading, providing adequate liquidity for the next leg higher. The key resistance at $207.16 represents the immediate hurdle, followed by stronger resistance at $249.00.
Aave Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for AAVE
Our primary AAVE price target focuses on the $215-$225 zone within the next 30 days. This target aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the recent decline and represents a logical profit-taking area for swing traders.
For this bullish Aave forecast to materialize, AAVE needs to break above $207.16 with volume confirmation. A successful break would likely trigger momentum buying toward $220, with potential extension to $235 if governance concerns subside.
Bearish Risk for Aave
The primary risk scenario involves a break below the critical $190 support level. Such a breakdown could trigger stops and accelerate selling toward the stronger support zone at $162.29. A deeper correction could test the $147.13 level, representing the major support from our analysis.
Traders should monitor the governance controversy developments closely, as negative news could override technical bullishness and force a retest of lower levels.
Should You Buy AAVE Now? Entry Strategy
Based on our AAVE price prediction, the optimal entry strategy involves scaling into positions on any pullback toward $190-$192. This approach provides favorable risk-reward with stops below $187.
For aggressive traders, a breakout entry above $207.16 with volume confirmation offers momentum participation, though at higher risk. Conservative investors should wait for a successful retest of $207 as support before adding exposure.
Position sizing should remain moderate given the mixed sentiment and governance uncertainties. Consider allocating no more than 2-3% of portfolio value initially, with plans to add on confirmed breakout.
AAVE Price Prediction Conclusion
Our Aave forecast anticipates a recovery toward $215-$225 over the next 30 days, supported by improving technical momentum and oversold conditions from recent declines. The bullish MACD histogram and neutral RSI provide the foundation for this move, with medium confidence in the prediction.
Key indicators to monitor include the $207.16 resistance break and governance news flow. A decisive break above $210 with volume would increase confidence in reaching the upper target range. Conversely, failure to hold $190 support would invalidate the bullish case and trigger our bearish scenario.
The prediction timeline spans 2-4 weeks for initial targets, with potential extension to $235-$250 if broader DeFi sentiment improves alongside AAVE’s technical breakout.
Lido DAO shows bullish momentum signs with MACD histogram positive at 0.0063. Technical analysis suggests LDO price prediction targets $0.70 within 4-6 weeks.
Lido DAO (LDO) is currently trading at $0.60, showing signs of potential recovery after testing critical support levels. With the MACD histogram turning positive and RSI maintaining neutral territory, our comprehensive Lido DAO technical analysis suggests a measured bullish outlook for the coming weeks.
LDO Price Prediction Summary
• LDO short-term target (1 week): $0.65 (+8.3%)
• Lido DAO medium-term forecast (1 month): $0.68-$0.72 range • Key level to break for bullish continuation: $0.68 (Bollinger Band upper resistance)
• Critical support if bearish: $0.55 (strong support confluence)
Recent Lido DAO Price Predictions from Analysts
Recent analyst predictions present a mixed but cautiously optimistic picture for LDO. CoinLore’s AI models project an LDO price prediction of $0.5915 for the short term, while their long-term Lido DAO forecast extends to $5.58, indicating substantial upside potential over extended timeframes.
The consensus among recent predictions shows bearish short-term sentiment, with CMC AI targeting $0.45 following whale sell-offs. However, this contrasts sharply with the current technical setup, where LDO has already found support above the $0.55 level and shows early bullish momentum signals.
The divergence between pessimistic short-term predictions and improving technical indicators suggests the market may be oversold at current levels, presenting a potential opportunity for contrarian positioning.
LDO Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Recovery
Current Lido DAO technical analysis reveals several encouraging signals despite the recent downtrend. The MACD histogram has turned positive at 0.0063, indicating early bullish momentum building beneath the surface. This divergence from recent price action often precedes meaningful reversals.
LDO’s position at 0.3817 within the Bollinger Bands suggests the token is trading in the lower portion of its recent range, but not oversold. The RSI at 43.40 remains in neutral territory, providing room for upward movement without immediately triggering overbought conditions.
Trading volume of $3.11 million on Binance spot shows adequate liquidity, though increased volume confirmation would strengthen any breakout attempt. The daily ATR of $0.05 indicates moderate volatility, suggesting controlled price movements rather than panic selling.
Lido DAO Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for LDO
Our primary LDO price target sits at $0.70, representing a 16.7% gain from current levels. This target aligns with the 50-day SMA at $0.71, which has acted as significant resistance. A successful break above the immediate resistance at $0.68 (Bollinger Band upper) would likely trigger momentum toward this level.
The path higher requires LDO to first reclaim the 20-day SMA at $0.62, then challenge the $0.68 resistance zone. Success at these levels could extend the rally toward $0.75-$0.80, where the next major resistance cluster resides.
Bearish Risk for Lido DAO
Should the current support at $0.55 fail, our bearish Lido DAO forecast targets the $0.45-$0.50 range, aligning with recent analyst predictions. This scenario would represent a 25% decline from current levels and would likely coincide with broader crypto market weakness.
The critical level to monitor is $0.55, which represents both the Bollinger Band lower boundary and strong technical support. A decisive break below this level with volume confirmation would invalidate our bullish thesis and trigger deeper selling pressure.
Should You Buy LDO Now? Entry Strategy
Based on current technical positioning, a measured approach to buy or sell LDO decisions appears warranted. For aggressive traders, current levels around $0.60 offer reasonable risk-reward, with stops placed below $0.55 support.
Conservative investors should wait for confirmation above $0.62 (20-day SMA) before initiating positions. This approach sacrifices some upside potential but provides greater confidence in the recovery narrative.
Position sizing should reflect the mixed prediction environment, with initial allocations kept modest pending clearer directional signals. Risk management remains paramount given LDO’s 61% decline from 52-week highs.
LDO Price Prediction Conclusion
Our LDO price prediction anticipates a recovery to $0.70 within the next 4-6 weeks, representing medium confidence based on improving technical indicators despite bearish analyst sentiment. The positive MACD histogram and neutral RSI provide the foundation for this forecast.
Key indicators to monitor include volume confirmation on any breakout attempt, RSI movement above 50, and successful reclamation of the 20-day SMA at $0.62. Failure to hold $0.55 support would invalidate this prediction and suggest deeper correction toward analyst targets near $0.45.
The timeline for this Lido DAO forecast extends through January 2025, with initial confirmation signals expected within the next 7-10 trading days. Traders should remain flexible as crypto markets can shift rapidly, particularly during year-end trading conditions.
Memecoins are not dead because the market is down and the narrative has faded, according to president of payment infrastructure company MoonPay, Keith A. Grossman, who said that memecoins will be back but in a different form.
The real innovation of memecoins is that attention can be tokenized easily and at low costs through blockchain technology, democratizing access to the attention economy, Grossman said. He continued:
“Before crypto, attention could only be monetized by platforms, brands and a small group of influencers. Everyone else generated value and gave it away for free. Likes, trends, inside jokes and communities created massive economic value.”
The memecoin sector declined significantly in 2025. Source: CoinMarketCap
However, that value did not flow back to participants and mostly remained trapped by large, centralized platforms, he added.
Grossman compared the dismal memecoin outlook among analysts to forecasts of the demise of social media after the first generation of social platforms failed in the early 2000s, before the rise of a latter cohort of companies that turned the niche sector into a cultural phenomenon.
However, sharp criticisms that memecoins and other social tokens have no value and several high-profile token implosions eventually caused the market to crater and investors to move on from the narrative.
Presidential antics and the downfall of the memecoin sector
The memecoin market collapsed in Q1 2025 following several high-profile token collapses and significant drawdowns that were characterized as “rug pulls.”
United States President Donald Trump launched a memecoin ahead of the January 2025 inauguration, which reached a peak of $75 before collapsing by over 90% to about $5.42 at the time of this writing, according to CoinMarketCap.
The Official Trump memecoin from Donald Trump, president of the United States, has declined by over 90% since launch. Source: CoinMarketCap
Javier Milei, the president of Argentina, endorsed a social token called Libra in February, which also crashed, leaving 86% of LIBRA holders with realized losses of $1,000 or more.
The token had reached a market cap of $107 million before its collapse and was characterized as a rug pull by the crypto community.
In 2025, oil-linked capital from the Gulf, including sovereign wealth funds, family offices and private banking networks, has emerged as a significant influence on Bitcoin’s liquidity dynamics.
These investors are entering Bitcoin primarily through regulated channels, including spot ETFs.
Abu Dhabi has become a focal point for this shift, supported by large pools of sovereign-linked capital and the Abu Dhabi Global Market, which serves as a regulated hub for global asset managers and crypto market intermediaries.
Oil-rich investors cite diversification, long-term portfolio construction, generational demand within private wealth and opportunities to build supporting financial infrastructure as key drivers of this interest.
Since Bitcoin (BTC) began its first sustained boom in 2013, many of its major surges have been driven by highly leveraged retail activity and trading on less-regulated platforms. After the first US Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), began trading on Oct. 19, 2021, Bitcoin attracted greater attention from institutional investors.
In 2025, a new source of capital began to play a larger role in shaping Bitcoin’s market structure: oil-linked funds from the Gulf region. This capital includes sovereign wealth funds, state-affiliated investment firms, family offices and the private banking networks that serve them.
These capital pools are entering the market through regulated channels, particularly spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These inflows could drive the next wave of liquidity. Rather than simply causing temporary price increases, they may support narrower bid-ask spreads, greater market depth and the ability to execute larger trades with less price impact.
This article examines how investors tied to the oil economy may influence crypto market liquidity, outlines what the next liquidity wave could look like and explains why these funds are interested in Bitcoin. It also highlights Abu Dhabi’s role as a regulated hub and the practical limits of liquidity.
Who these oil-linked investors are and why they matter for market liquidity
The term “oil-rich investors” refers to a network of capital managers whose resources are tied, directly or indirectly, to hydrocarbon revenues:
Sovereign wealth funds and government-related entities in the Gulf, which oversee large asset bases and often shape regional investment trends
Ultra-high-net-worth individuals and family offices, which can move more quickly than sovereign funds and typically channel demand through private banks and wealth advisers
International hedge funds and asset managers establishing operations in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, drawn in part by proximity to regional capital.
For liquidity, the key factor is not only the size of these allocations but also how they are deployed. Many of these positions are routed through vehicles and platforms designed for institutional participation, which can support a more robust market structure.
Did you know? Spot Bitcoin ETFs do not hold futures contracts. Instead, they hold Bitcoin in custody. This means net inflows generally require purchases of BTC in the spot market, linking investor demand more directly to spot liquidity than to derivatives-based exposure.
What the next liquidity wave actually means
From a market-structure perspective, a liquidity wave is typically characterized by:
Larger, more consistent daily flows into regulated products rather than short-lived spikes
Deeper order books and narrower spreads in spot markets
Increased primary-market ETF activity, including share creations and redemptions, which typically involves professional hedging
Stronger, more resilient derivatives markets, including futures and options, supported by regulated venues and clearing services.
A key difference from earlier cycles is the maturation of market infrastructure. Spot Bitcoin ETFs provide a familiar, regulated vehicle for traditional investors. Meanwhile, prime brokerage services, institutional custody and regulated trading hubs have reduced operational friction for large-scale allocations.
Did you know? Authorized participants, not ETF issuers, typically handle Bitcoin buying and selling tied to ETF flows. These large financial firms create and redeem ETF shares and may hedge across spot and derivatives markets, influencing day-to-day liquidity behind the scenes.
Abu Dhabi-linked conservative capital flows
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have become a straightforward route for this type of capital. The structure and risk profile of crypto ETFs, such as BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), differ from traditionally registered funds. For investors focused on governance and compliance, these distinctions can matter.
During the third quarter of 2025, the Abu Dhabi Investment Council increased its exposure to Bitcoin by expanding its position in IBIT. A regulatory filing shows the fund had raised its stake from about 2.4 million shares to nearly 8 million by Sept. 30, with the position worth roughly $518 million at quarter-end based on the closing price.
These figures suggest that Gulf-based capital is gaining Bitcoin exposure through US-regulated listings. Even when implemented through a straightforward ETF purchase, such inflows can support liquidity because market makers and authorized participants may hedge exposure across spot and derivatives markets as flows change.
Why Abu Dhabi’s oil-linked capital is interested in Bitcoin
There are several overlapping reasons oil-rich investors are interested in Bitcoin:
Diversification and long-term portfolio strategy: Gulf investors, particularly those linked to sovereign entities, often look for long-duration themes, diversification and global opportunities. Some institutions frame Bitcoin as a potential long-term store of value, in a similar way to how gold is used in multiasset portfolios, although Bitcoin’s risk profile and volatility are materially different.
Generational shifts in private wealth: Some wealth managers in the UAE report rising client interest in regulated digital asset exposure, especially among younger high-net-worth investors. This has pushed traditional platforms to broaden access through regulated products and venues.
Building the supporting infrastructure: Beyond direct allocations, parts of the region are investing in crypto market infrastructure, including regulated exchanges, custody solutions and derivatives platforms. These systems can reduce operational friction for institutional participation and may support more durable liquidity over time.
Did you know? Many spot Bitcoin ETFs use multiple custodians and insurance layers. This setup reflects institutional risk management standards and reassures conservative investors who would never self-custody private keys.
Geography matters: The UAE’s role as a regulated hub
Liquidity tends to concentrate when regulation, licensing and institutional counterparties are reliable. The UAE has built a multi-layered framework that combines federal oversight with specialized financial free zones, such as the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM).
Several developments have supported ADGM’s positioning as an institutional base. For example, Binance obtained regulatory authorization under the ADGM framework.
According to a Reuters report, ADGM has seen rapid growth in assets under management, which the report linked to its proximity to Abu Dhabi’s sovereign capital pools. When market makers, prime brokers, hedge funds and wealth platforms cluster in one jurisdiction, it can support more continuous two-way flow, stronger hedging activity and tighter pricing.
How oil-linked capital can strengthen Bitcoin liquidity
Inflows from sovereign wealth funds tied to the oil economy can introduce an additional layer of institutional demand in the Bitcoin market, which may support liquidity and market depth.
The ETF flywheel: Institutional purchases through spot ETFs can trigger share creations, hedging activity and related trading by professional intermediaries. This can increase turnover and tighten spreads, especially when inflows are steady.
Large over-the-counter trades and prime brokerage: Major investors often prefer block trades and financing facilities to reduce market impact. This can encourage intermediaries to commit capital and improve execution services.
Regulated derivatives and clearing: A more developed, regulated derivatives ecosystem can improve price discovery and risk transfer. It can also help market makers manage risk more efficiently, which may support tighter quotes in the spot market.
Did you know? Spot Bitcoin ETFs trade during stock market hours, while Bitcoin trades 24/7. This mismatch can contribute to price gaps at the stock market open, especially after major overnight moves or weekend volatility in crypto markets.
Institutional exits and the limits of liquidity
Institutional participation does not eliminate downside risk. Bitcoin remains volatile, and even widely used products can see sharp outflows.
For example, Reuters reported that BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw a record single-day net outflow of about $523 million on Nov. 18, 2025, during a broader crypto market pullback. The report cited factors such as profit-taking, fading momentum and a shift in preference toward gold.
Availability of access does not guarantee continued allocation. Liquidity flows in both directions, so the same infrastructure that supports large inflows can also enable rapid exits.
Governments also shape the regulatory environment. Policy and supervisory changes can expand or restrict how funds access Bitcoin-linked products and, in some cases, Bitcoin itself.
In 2025, oil-linked capital from the Gulf, including sovereign wealth funds, family offices and private banking networks, has emerged as a significant influence on Bitcoin’s liquidity dynamics.
These investors are entering Bitcoin primarily through regulated channels, including spot ETFs.
Abu Dhabi has become a focal point for this shift, supported by large pools of sovereign-linked capital and the Abu Dhabi Global Market, which serves as a regulated hub for global asset managers and crypto market intermediaries.
Oil-rich investors cite diversification, long-term portfolio construction, generational demand within private wealth and opportunities to build supporting financial infrastructure as key drivers of this interest.
Since Bitcoin (BTC) began its first sustained boom in 2013, many of its major surges have been driven by highly leveraged retail activity and trading on less-regulated platforms. After the first US Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), began trading on Oct. 19, 2021, Bitcoin attracted greater attention from institutional investors.
In 2025, a new source of capital began to play a larger role in shaping Bitcoin’s market structure: oil-linked funds from the Gulf region. This capital includes sovereign wealth funds, state-affiliated investment firms, family offices and the private banking networks that serve them.
These capital pools are entering the market through regulated channels, particularly spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These inflows could drive the next wave of liquidity. Rather than simply causing temporary price increases, they may support narrower bid-ask spreads, greater market depth and the ability to execute larger trades with less price impact.
This article examines how investors tied to the oil economy may influence crypto market liquidity, outlines what the next liquidity wave could look like and explains why these funds are interested in Bitcoin. It also highlights Abu Dhabi’s role as a regulated hub and the practical limits of liquidity.
Who these oil-linked investors are and why they matter for market liquidity
The term “oil-rich investors” refers to a network of capital managers whose resources are tied, directly or indirectly, to hydrocarbon revenues:
Sovereign wealth funds and government-related entities in the Gulf, which oversee large asset bases and often shape regional investment trends
Ultra-high-net-worth individuals and family offices, which can move more quickly than sovereign funds and typically channel demand through private banks and wealth advisers
International hedge funds and asset managers establishing operations in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, drawn in part by proximity to regional capital.
For liquidity, the key factor is not only the size of these allocations but also how they are deployed. Many of these positions are routed through vehicles and platforms designed for institutional participation, which can support a more robust market structure.
Did you know? Spot Bitcoin ETFs do not hold futures contracts. Instead, they hold Bitcoin in custody. This means net inflows generally require purchases of BTC in the spot market, linking investor demand more directly to spot liquidity than to derivatives-based exposure.
What the next liquidity wave actually means
From a market-structure perspective, a liquidity wave is typically characterized by:
Larger, more consistent daily flows into regulated products rather than short-lived spikes
Deeper order books and narrower spreads in spot markets
Increased primary-market ETF activity, including share creations and redemptions, which typically involves professional hedging
Stronger, more resilient derivatives markets, including futures and options, supported by regulated venues and clearing services.
A key difference from earlier cycles is the maturation of market infrastructure. Spot Bitcoin ETFs provide a familiar, regulated vehicle for traditional investors. Meanwhile, prime brokerage services, institutional custody and regulated trading hubs have reduced operational friction for large-scale allocations.
Did you know? Authorized participants, not ETF issuers, typically handle Bitcoin buying and selling tied to ETF flows. These large financial firms create and redeem ETF shares and may hedge across spot and derivatives markets, influencing day-to-day liquidity behind the scenes.
Abu Dhabi-linked conservative capital flows
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have become a straightforward route for this type of capital. The structure and risk profile of crypto ETFs, such as BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), differ from traditionally registered funds. For investors focused on governance and compliance, these distinctions can matter.
During the third quarter of 2025, the Abu Dhabi Investment Council increased its exposure to Bitcoin by expanding its position in IBIT. A regulatory filing shows the fund had raised its stake from about 2.4 million shares to nearly 8 million by Sept. 30, with the position worth roughly $518 million at quarter-end based on the closing price.
These figures suggest that Gulf-based capital is gaining Bitcoin exposure through US-regulated listings. Even when implemented through a straightforward ETF purchase, such inflows can support liquidity because market makers and authorized participants may hedge exposure across spot and derivatives markets as flows change.
Why Abu Dhabi’s oil-linked capital is interested in Bitcoin
There are several overlapping reasons oil-rich investors are interested in Bitcoin:
Diversification and long-term portfolio strategy: Gulf investors, particularly those linked to sovereign entities, often look for long-duration themes, diversification and global opportunities. Some institutions frame Bitcoin as a potential long-term store of value, in a similar way to how gold is used in multiasset portfolios, although Bitcoin’s risk profile and volatility are materially different.
Generational shifts in private wealth: Some wealth managers in the UAE report rising client interest in regulated digital asset exposure, especially among younger high-net-worth investors. This has pushed traditional platforms to broaden access through regulated products and venues.
Building the supporting infrastructure: Beyond direct allocations, parts of the region are investing in crypto market infrastructure, including regulated exchanges, custody solutions and derivatives platforms. These systems can reduce operational friction for institutional participation and may support more durable liquidity over time.
Did you know? Many spot Bitcoin ETFs use multiple custodians and insurance layers. This setup reflects institutional risk management standards and reassures conservative investors who would never self-custody private keys.
Geography matters: The UAE’s role as a regulated hub
Liquidity tends to concentrate when regulation, licensing and institutional counterparties are reliable. The UAE has built a multi-layered framework that combines federal oversight with specialized financial free zones, such as the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM).
Several developments have supported ADGM’s positioning as an institutional base. For example, Binance obtained regulatory authorization under the ADGM framework.
According to a Reuters report, ADGM has seen rapid growth in assets under management, which the report linked to its proximity to Abu Dhabi’s sovereign capital pools. When market makers, prime brokers, hedge funds and wealth platforms cluster in one jurisdiction, it can support more continuous two-way flow, stronger hedging activity and tighter pricing.
How oil-linked capital can strengthen Bitcoin liquidity
Inflows from sovereign wealth funds tied to the oil economy can introduce an additional layer of institutional demand in the Bitcoin market, which may support liquidity and market depth.
The ETF flywheel: Institutional purchases through spot ETFs can trigger share creations, hedging activity and related trading by professional intermediaries. This can increase turnover and tighten spreads, especially when inflows are steady.
Large over-the-counter trades and prime brokerage: Major investors often prefer block trades and financing facilities to reduce market impact. This can encourage intermediaries to commit capital and improve execution services.
Regulated derivatives and clearing: A more developed, regulated derivatives ecosystem can improve price discovery and risk transfer. It can also help market makers manage risk more efficiently, which may support tighter quotes in the spot market.
Did you know? Spot Bitcoin ETFs trade during stock market hours, while Bitcoin trades 24/7. This mismatch can contribute to price gaps at the stock market open, especially after major overnight moves or weekend volatility in crypto markets.
Institutional exits and the limits of liquidity
Institutional participation does not eliminate downside risk. Bitcoin remains volatile, and even widely used products can see sharp outflows.
For example, Reuters reported that BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw a record single-day net outflow of about $523 million on Nov. 18, 2025, during a broader crypto market pullback. The report cited factors such as profit-taking, fading momentum and a shift in preference toward gold.
Availability of access does not guarantee continued allocation. Liquidity flows in both directions, so the same infrastructure that supports large inflows can also enable rapid exits.
Governments also shape the regulatory environment. Policy and supervisory changes can expand or restrict how funds access Bitcoin-linked products and, in some cases, Bitcoin itself.
HashKey is aiming to become Hong Kong’s first fully crypto-native IPO by listing 240.57 million shares under the city’s virtual asset regulatory regime.
The business extends beyond a spot exchange by combining trading, custody, institutional staking, asset management and tokenization into a single regulated platform.
Revenue is growing, but the company is still incurring losses as it invests heavily in technology, compliance and market expansion.
Most IPO proceeds are expected to fund infrastructure and international growth, positioning the listing as a long-term bet on regulated digital asset markets.
HashKey wants to become the first crypto exchange that Hong Kong investors can buy on their local stock market. The company has filed for an initial public offering (IPO) that could make it the city’s first publicly listed, fully crypto-native venue under the new virtual asset regime. It is offering 240.57 million shares, with a portion reserved for local retail investors.
Shares are being marketed in a range of 5.95-6.95 Hong Kong dollars, which could rise to 1.67 billion HKD, about $215 million, and imply a multibillion-dollar valuation if the offering is fully subscribed.
HashKey already operates what it describes as Hong Kong’s “largest licensed platform,” a broader stack that includes custody, institutional staking and tokenization. In its latest filing, the group reported tens of billions of Hong Kong dollars in staking assets and platform assets under management.
In the sections that follow, we will look at what the business does, how its financials compare, how it plans to use the IPO proceeds and why the outcome of this listing matters for understanding Hong Kong’s broader virtual asset ambitions.
Did you know? Some analysts view HashKey’s IPO as a real-time test of whether public markets are willing to back heavily regulated crypto infrastructure.
Why HashKey’s IPO could be a key step for Hong Kong
HashKey is among the first major attempts to put Hong Kong’s new virtual asset rulebook in front of public equity investors. The exchange plans to offer 240.57 million shares in total, with 24.06 million allocated to local investors and the remainder to international buyers, at a maximum offer price of 6.95 HKD per share.
Final pricing is due on Dec. 16, 2025, with trading scheduled to begin the next day under the proposed stock code 3887. If the offering is fully subscribed at the top of the range, it could rise to 1.67 billion HKD, about $215 million, potentially making HashKey one of the more prominent listed crypto-focused companies in Asia.
The listing is also a milestone in Hong Kong’s effort to rebuild its status as a digital asset hub after years of regulatory uncertainty. Over the past two years, the city has introduced a dedicated licensing regime for retail and institutional crypto platforms, allowed tightly controlled staking services and strengthened custody requirements and stablecoin oversight.
HashKey offers an early, detailed look at what a fully regulated, multi-line crypto business can look like under that framework.
The IPO could serve as a real-time test of investor appetite for compliance-first crypto infrastructure, especially as mainland China maintains strict limits on many digital asset activities. Beijing has already moved to halt some large tech-backed stablecoin projects in the city: Hong Kong’s experiment does have political limits.
How HashKey trades after its debut may be seen as an early indication of whether those constraints still leave enough room for a profitable, listed crypto exchange to succeed.
Did you know? HashKey Group has backing from established institutional investors, including entities linked to Wanxiang, which gives it a more traditional finance profile than many offshore exchanges.
What business is actually going public?
On paper, HashKey Holdings is an exchange IPO. In practice, investors are being offered a broader crypto infrastructure stack that has already been reviewed and licensed under Hong Kong’s regulatory framework.
At the core is HashKey Exchange, a Hong Kong-based trading venue licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) under Type 1 and Type 7 licenses for dealing in and operating a virtual asset trading platform. It supports spot trading, over-the-counter services and fiat on- and off-ramps in HKD and USD. The company describes itself as Hong Kong’s largest licensed venue serving both retail and professional clients.
Around that sits a broader ecosystem. HashKey Cloud provides institutional staking and node services, and the company says it has received approval to support staking for Hong Kong’s spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In its filings, HashKey reported managing about 29 billion HKD in staked assets as of the end of the third quarter of 2025, positioning it as one of Asia’s largest staking providers and among the larger players globally.
The group also operates an asset management arm offering crypto funds and venture strategies. According to its filings, it had about 7.8 billion HKD in assets under management as of Sept. 30, 2025. It has also moved into tokenization through HashKey Chain, a network focused on real-world assets (RWAs), stablecoins and institutional use cases. The company reported roughly 1.7 billion HKD in onchain RWAs on the network.
Finally, HashKey has been building out crypto-as-a-service tools and pursuing licenses across markets, including Singapore, Dubai, Japan, Bermuda and parts of Europe. This suggests the IPO is intended to support international expansion and a white-label infrastructure model, not just a single market Hong Kong exchange.
Did you know? According to HashKey’s disclosures, its RWA network has already tokenized more than 1 billion HKD worth of real-world assets onchain, including products such as structured notes and private credit.
Revenue, losses and the “compliance-first” bet
HashKey reflects a typical growth-stage pattern: Revenue has risen quickly, but the business remains cash-consuming as it invests in expansion, licensing and compliance. Total revenue increased from about 129 million HKD in 2022 to 721 million HKD in 2024, more than a 4.5x rise in two years, as its Hong Kong and Bermuda exchanges launched and trading activity grew.
That growth has not yet translated into profits. A review of the filing indicates net losses nearly doubled over the same period, from 585.2 million HKD in 2022 to 1.19 billion HKD in 2024, driven by higher spending on technology, headcount, compliance and marketing.
Trading volumes rose from 4.2 billion HKD in 2022 to 638.4 billion HKD in 2024, but a low-fee strategy and the costs of operating licensed venues across multiple jurisdictions kept the bottom line deeply negative.
More recent numbers suggest the trajectory may be improving. In the first six months of 2025, HashKey reported a net loss of 506.7 million HKD, narrower than the 772.6 million HKD loss in the same period a year earlier.
The company frames these losses as the cost of building a licensed, compliant and scalable digital asset platform ahead of the market cycle. It argues that the long, expensive build-out mirrors how earlier exchange leaders looked before they became profitable.
How HashKey plans to use the IPO proceeds
HashKey is explicit about how it plans to use the new capital.
Roughly 40% of the net proceeds are earmarked for technology and infrastructure upgrades over the next three to five years. This includes scaling HashKey Chain and the exchange’s matching engine, as well as strengthening custody, security and back office systems. Company summaries also point to derivatives, yield products and improved institutional tools as specific build-out areas, which would move HashKey closer to the full suite product set offered by larger international venues.
Another 40% is allocated to market expansion and ecosystem partnerships. In practice, this means pushing more aggressively into new jurisdictions and scaling crypto as a service arrangements where banks, brokers and fintechs connect to HashKey’s custody and trading stack via APIs rather than building the full infrastructure in-house. The company’s discussion of overseas licensing and institutional relationships suggests it aims to differentiate itself from exchanges that rely primarily on retail activity.
The remaining 20% is split between operations and risk management (10%) and working capital and general corporate purposes (10%). This includes hiring, strengthening compliance and internal controls and maintaining balance sheet flexibility to navigate market cycles.
What’s next?
There are three things to watch as December unfolds:
How the deal is priced and how the shares trade after listing
Whether HashKey can turn its full stack, including exchange, custody, staking and tokenization, into steady, diversified revenue
How firmly Hong Kong maintains its licensed but open approach to digital assets.
If HashKey executes well, it could give other exchanges, banks and tokenization projects a clearer pathway to go public in the city. If it struggles, the outcome may highlight where the practical limits of Hong Kong’s virtual asset experiment lie.
HashKey is aiming to become Hong Kong’s first fully crypto-native IPO by listing 240.57 million shares under the city’s virtual asset regulatory regime.
The business extends beyond a spot exchange by combining trading, custody, institutional staking, asset management and tokenization into a single regulated platform.
Revenue is growing, but the company is still incurring losses as it invests heavily in technology, compliance and market expansion.
Most IPO proceeds are expected to fund infrastructure and international growth, positioning the listing as a long-term bet on regulated digital asset markets.
HashKey wants to become the first crypto exchange that Hong Kong investors can buy on their local stock market. The company has filed for an initial public offering (IPO) that could make it the city’s first publicly listed, fully crypto-native venue under the new virtual asset regime. It is offering 240.57 million shares, with a portion reserved for local retail investors.
Shares are being marketed in a range of 5.95-6.95 Hong Kong dollars, which could rise to 1.67 billion HKD, about $215 million, and imply a multibillion-dollar valuation if the offering is fully subscribed.
HashKey already operates what it describes as Hong Kong’s “largest licensed platform,” a broader stack that includes custody, institutional staking and tokenization. In its latest filing, the group reported tens of billions of Hong Kong dollars in staking assets and platform assets under management.
In the sections that follow, we will look at what the business does, how its financials compare, how it plans to use the IPO proceeds and why the outcome of this listing matters for understanding Hong Kong’s broader virtual asset ambitions.
Did you know? Some analysts view HashKey’s IPO as a real-time test of whether public markets are willing to back heavily regulated crypto infrastructure.
Why HashKey’s IPO could be a key step for Hong Kong
HashKey is among the first major attempts to put Hong Kong’s new virtual asset rulebook in front of public equity investors. The exchange plans to offer 240.57 million shares in total, with 24.06 million allocated to local investors and the remainder to international buyers, at a maximum offer price of 6.95 HKD per share.
Final pricing is due on Dec. 16, 2025, with trading scheduled to begin the next day under the proposed stock code 3887. If the offering is fully subscribed at the top of the range, it could rise to 1.67 billion HKD, about $215 million, potentially making HashKey one of the more prominent listed crypto-focused companies in Asia.
The listing is also a milestone in Hong Kong’s effort to rebuild its status as a digital asset hub after years of regulatory uncertainty. Over the past two years, the city has introduced a dedicated licensing regime for retail and institutional crypto platforms, allowed tightly controlled staking services and strengthened custody requirements and stablecoin oversight.
HashKey offers an early, detailed look at what a fully regulated, multi-line crypto business can look like under that framework.
The IPO could serve as a real-time test of investor appetite for compliance-first crypto infrastructure, especially as mainland China maintains strict limits on many digital asset activities. Beijing has already moved to halt some large tech-backed stablecoin projects in the city: Hong Kong’s experiment does have political limits.
How HashKey trades after its debut may be seen as an early indication of whether those constraints still leave enough room for a profitable, listed crypto exchange to succeed.
Did you know? HashKey Group has backing from established institutional investors, including entities linked to Wanxiang, which gives it a more traditional finance profile than many offshore exchanges.
What business is actually going public?
On paper, HashKey Holdings is an exchange IPO. In practice, investors are being offered a broader crypto infrastructure stack that has already been reviewed and licensed under Hong Kong’s regulatory framework.
At the core is HashKey Exchange, a Hong Kong-based trading venue licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) under Type 1 and Type 7 licenses for dealing in and operating a virtual asset trading platform. It supports spot trading, over-the-counter services and fiat on- and off-ramps in HKD and USD. The company describes itself as Hong Kong’s largest licensed venue serving both retail and professional clients.
Around that sits a broader ecosystem. HashKey Cloud provides institutional staking and node services, and the company says it has received approval to support staking for Hong Kong’s spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In its filings, HashKey reported managing about 29 billion HKD in staked assets as of the end of the third quarter of 2025, positioning it as one of Asia’s largest staking providers and among the larger players globally.
The group also operates an asset management arm offering crypto funds and venture strategies. According to its filings, it had about 7.8 billion HKD in assets under management as of Sept. 30, 2025. It has also moved into tokenization through HashKey Chain, a network focused on real-world assets (RWAs), stablecoins and institutional use cases. The company reported roughly 1.7 billion HKD in onchain RWAs on the network.
Finally, HashKey has been building out crypto-as-a-service tools and pursuing licenses across markets, including Singapore, Dubai, Japan, Bermuda and parts of Europe. This suggests the IPO is intended to support international expansion and a white-label infrastructure model, not just a single market Hong Kong exchange.
Did you know? According to HashKey’s disclosures, its RWA network has already tokenized more than 1 billion HKD worth of real-world assets onchain, including products such as structured notes and private credit.
Revenue, losses and the “compliance-first” bet
HashKey reflects a typical growth-stage pattern: Revenue has risen quickly, but the business remains cash-consuming as it invests in expansion, licensing and compliance. Total revenue increased from about 129 million HKD in 2022 to 721 million HKD in 2024, more than a 4.5x rise in two years, as its Hong Kong and Bermuda exchanges launched and trading activity grew.
That growth has not yet translated into profits. A review of the filing indicates net losses nearly doubled over the same period, from 585.2 million HKD in 2022 to 1.19 billion HKD in 2024, driven by higher spending on technology, headcount, compliance and marketing.
Trading volumes rose from 4.2 billion HKD in 2022 to 638.4 billion HKD in 2024, but a low-fee strategy and the costs of operating licensed venues across multiple jurisdictions kept the bottom line deeply negative.
More recent numbers suggest the trajectory may be improving. In the first six months of 2025, HashKey reported a net loss of 506.7 million HKD, narrower than the 772.6 million HKD loss in the same period a year earlier.
The company frames these losses as the cost of building a licensed, compliant and scalable digital asset platform ahead of the market cycle. It argues that the long, expensive build-out mirrors how earlier exchange leaders looked before they became profitable.
How HashKey plans to use the IPO proceeds
HashKey is explicit about how it plans to use the new capital.
Roughly 40% of the net proceeds are earmarked for technology and infrastructure upgrades over the next three to five years. This includes scaling HashKey Chain and the exchange’s matching engine, as well as strengthening custody, security and back office systems. Company summaries also point to derivatives, yield products and improved institutional tools as specific build-out areas, which would move HashKey closer to the full suite product set offered by larger international venues.
Another 40% is allocated to market expansion and ecosystem partnerships. In practice, this means pushing more aggressively into new jurisdictions and scaling crypto as a service arrangements where banks, brokers and fintechs connect to HashKey’s custody and trading stack via APIs rather than building the full infrastructure in-house. The company’s discussion of overseas licensing and institutional relationships suggests it aims to differentiate itself from exchanges that rely primarily on retail activity.
The remaining 20% is split between operations and risk management (10%) and working capital and general corporate purposes (10%). This includes hiring, strengthening compliance and internal controls and maintaining balance sheet flexibility to navigate market cycles.
What’s next?
There are three things to watch as December unfolds:
How the deal is priced and how the shares trade after listing
Whether HashKey can turn its full stack, including exchange, custody, staking and tokenization, into steady, diversified revenue
How firmly Hong Kong maintains its licensed but open approach to digital assets.
If HashKey executes well, it could give other exchanges, banks and tokenization projects a clearer pathway to go public in the city. If it struggles, the outcome may highlight where the practical limits of Hong Kong’s virtual asset experiment lie.
HashKey is aiming to become Hong Kong’s first fully crypto-native IPO by listing 240.57 million shares under the city’s virtual asset regulatory regime.
The business extends beyond a spot exchange by combining trading, custody, institutional staking, asset management and tokenization into a single regulated platform.
Revenue is growing, but the company is still incurring losses as it invests heavily in technology, compliance and market expansion.
Most IPO proceeds are expected to fund infrastructure and international growth, positioning the listing as a long-term bet on regulated digital asset markets.
HashKey wants to become the first crypto exchange that Hong Kong investors can buy on their local stock market. The company has filed for an initial public offering (IPO) that could make it the city’s first publicly listed, fully crypto-native venue under the new virtual asset regime. It is offering 240.57 million shares, with a portion reserved for local retail investors.
Shares are being marketed in a range of 5.95-6.95 Hong Kong dollars, which could rise to 1.67 billion HKD, about $215 million, and imply a multibillion-dollar valuation if the offering is fully subscribed.
HashKey already operates what it describes as Hong Kong’s “largest licensed platform,” a broader stack that includes custody, institutional staking and tokenization. In its latest filing, the group reported tens of billions of Hong Kong dollars in staking assets and platform assets under management.
In the sections that follow, we will look at what the business does, how its financials compare, how it plans to use the IPO proceeds and why the outcome of this listing matters for understanding Hong Kong’s broader virtual asset ambitions.
Did you know? Some analysts view HashKey’s IPO as a real-time test of whether public markets are willing to back heavily regulated crypto infrastructure.
Why HashKey’s IPO could be a key step for Hong Kong
HashKey is among the first major attempts to put Hong Kong’s new virtual asset rulebook in front of public equity investors. The exchange plans to offer 240.57 million shares in total, with 24.06 million allocated to local investors and the remainder to international buyers, at a maximum offer price of 6.95 HKD per share.
Final pricing is due on Dec. 16, 2025, with trading scheduled to begin the next day under the proposed stock code 3887. If the offering is fully subscribed at the top of the range, it could rise to 1.67 billion HKD, about $215 million, potentially making HashKey one of the more prominent listed crypto-focused companies in Asia.
The listing is also a milestone in Hong Kong’s effort to rebuild its status as a digital asset hub after years of regulatory uncertainty. Over the past two years, the city has introduced a dedicated licensing regime for retail and institutional crypto platforms, allowed tightly controlled staking services and strengthened custody requirements and stablecoin oversight.
HashKey offers an early, detailed look at what a fully regulated, multi-line crypto business can look like under that framework.
The IPO could serve as a real-time test of investor appetite for compliance-first crypto infrastructure, especially as mainland China maintains strict limits on many digital asset activities. Beijing has already moved to halt some large tech-backed stablecoin projects in the city: Hong Kong’s experiment does have political limits.
How HashKey trades after its debut may be seen as an early indication of whether those constraints still leave enough room for a profitable, listed crypto exchange to succeed.
Did you know? HashKey Group has backing from established institutional investors, including entities linked to Wanxiang, which gives it a more traditional finance profile than many offshore exchanges.
What business is actually going public?
On paper, HashKey Holdings is an exchange IPO. In practice, investors are being offered a broader crypto infrastructure stack that has already been reviewed and licensed under Hong Kong’s regulatory framework.
At the core is HashKey Exchange, a Hong Kong-based trading venue licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) under Type 1 and Type 7 licenses for dealing in and operating a virtual asset trading platform. It supports spot trading, over-the-counter services and fiat on- and off-ramps in HKD and USD. The company describes itself as Hong Kong’s largest licensed venue serving both retail and professional clients.
Around that sits a broader ecosystem. HashKey Cloud provides institutional staking and node services, and the company says it has received approval to support staking for Hong Kong’s spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In its filings, HashKey reported managing about 29 billion HKD in staked assets as of the end of the third quarter of 2025, positioning it as one of Asia’s largest staking providers and among the larger players globally.
The group also operates an asset management arm offering crypto funds and venture strategies. According to its filings, it had about 7.8 billion HKD in assets under management as of Sept. 30, 2025. It has also moved into tokenization through HashKey Chain, a network focused on real-world assets (RWAs), stablecoins and institutional use cases. The company reported roughly 1.7 billion HKD in onchain RWAs on the network.
Finally, HashKey has been building out crypto-as-a-service tools and pursuing licenses across markets, including Singapore, Dubai, Japan, Bermuda and parts of Europe. This suggests the IPO is intended to support international expansion and a white-label infrastructure model, not just a single market Hong Kong exchange.
Did you know? According to HashKey’s disclosures, its RWA network has already tokenized more than 1 billion HKD worth of real-world assets onchain, including products such as structured notes and private credit.
Revenue, losses and the “compliance-first” bet
HashKey reflects a typical growth-stage pattern: Revenue has risen quickly, but the business remains cash-consuming as it invests in expansion, licensing and compliance. Total revenue increased from about 129 million HKD in 2022 to 721 million HKD in 2024, more than a 4.5x rise in two years, as its Hong Kong and Bermuda exchanges launched and trading activity grew.
That growth has not yet translated into profits. A review of the filing indicates net losses nearly doubled over the same period, from 585.2 million HKD in 2022 to 1.19 billion HKD in 2024, driven by higher spending on technology, headcount, compliance and marketing.
Trading volumes rose from 4.2 billion HKD in 2022 to 638.4 billion HKD in 2024, but a low-fee strategy and the costs of operating licensed venues across multiple jurisdictions kept the bottom line deeply negative.
More recent numbers suggest the trajectory may be improving. In the first six months of 2025, HashKey reported a net loss of 506.7 million HKD, narrower than the 772.6 million HKD loss in the same period a year earlier.
The company frames these losses as the cost of building a licensed, compliant and scalable digital asset platform ahead of the market cycle. It argues that the long, expensive build-out mirrors how earlier exchange leaders looked before they became profitable.
How HashKey plans to use the IPO proceeds
HashKey is explicit about how it plans to use the new capital.
Roughly 40% of the net proceeds are earmarked for technology and infrastructure upgrades over the next three to five years. This includes scaling HashKey Chain and the exchange’s matching engine, as well as strengthening custody, security and back office systems. Company summaries also point to derivatives, yield products and improved institutional tools as specific build-out areas, which would move HashKey closer to the full suite product set offered by larger international venues.
Another 40% is allocated to market expansion and ecosystem partnerships. In practice, this means pushing more aggressively into new jurisdictions and scaling crypto as a service arrangements where banks, brokers and fintechs connect to HashKey’s custody and trading stack via APIs rather than building the full infrastructure in-house. The company’s discussion of overseas licensing and institutional relationships suggests it aims to differentiate itself from exchanges that rely primarily on retail activity.
The remaining 20% is split between operations and risk management (10%) and working capital and general corporate purposes (10%). This includes hiring, strengthening compliance and internal controls and maintaining balance sheet flexibility to navigate market cycles.
What’s next?
There are three things to watch as December unfolds:
How the deal is priced and how the shares trade after listing
Whether HashKey can turn its full stack, including exchange, custody, staking and tokenization, into steady, diversified revenue
How firmly Hong Kong maintains its licensed but open approach to digital assets.
If HashKey executes well, it could give other exchanges, banks and tokenization projects a clearer pathway to go public in the city. If it struggles, the outcome may highlight where the practical limits of Hong Kong’s virtual asset experiment lie.
