As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to underperform gold and major equity indices, investors are increasingly questioning whether this cycle is unfolding differently than expected. In a new interview with analyst Benjamin Cowen, we dig into why Bitcoin is lagging traditional markets, and why the current setup may feel strikingly similar to 2019.
Cowen points out that while stocks and gold are responding positively to expectations around future monetary easing, Bitcoin appears far more sensitive to actual liquidity conditions rather than optimism alone.
That distinction, he explains, helps clarify why BTC has struggled to gain momentum even as broader markets push higher. According to Cowen, Bitcoin often requires a clearer macroeconomic catalyst before it can outperform, and that catalyst may not yet be in place.
A key theme of the discussion is sentiment. Unlike previous cycle peaks characterized by widespread enthusiasm and retail speculation, this market has been marked by relative apathy.
Cowen explains why topping in an environment of low attention is unusual for Bitcoin, and how that difference could shape the path forward over the next couple of years.
The conversation also touches on the four-year cycle debate. While many commentators argue that Bitcoin’s historical cycle framework is no longer relevant, Cowen presents data suggesting that broader market cycles, not just crypto-specific narratives, still play a significant role.
He outlines why macro headwinds, including labor market trends and restrictive financial conditions, may continue to weigh on Bitcoin into 2026, even if short-term rallies occur along the way.
Rather than focusing on exact price targets, the interview centers on process over prediction; how investors can think about cycles, risk and patience in an environment where easy liquidity is not guaranteed. Cowen also briefly addresses what this means for altcoins and why expectations for quick rotations may be misplaced.
Watch the full interview on the Cointelegraph YouTube channel to hear Cowen’s complete reasoning, charts, and the deeper macro context behind his outlook.
Bitcoin attempted to rise above $90,000, but sustained recovery may require institutional demand to pick up.
While most major altcoins are struggling near their recent lows, Bitcoin Cash looks strong on the charts.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $89,500, but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. A sustainable recovery would require institutional demand to pick up. Since Dec. 15, BTC exchange-traded funds have recorded outflows of more than $1 billion, per Farside Investors data.
Despite BTC’s weak performance toward the end of the year, Strategy CEO Phong Le said in a recent podcast that BTC’s fundamentals “couldn’t be better.”
For the short term, Le said the Bitcoiners should be “fairly methodical and mathematical about it” as the price action is usually unpredictable.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView
Select analysts believe that cryptocurrency prices will remain sensitive to the Fed’s policies in Q1 2026. BTSE chief operating officer Jeff Mei said in a blog post that a single 0.25% rate cut by the Fed and steady rate of Treasury purchases could push BTC to the $92,000 to $98,000 range, “supported by ongoing ETF inflows surpassing $50 billion and institutional accumulation.”
What are the critical support and resistance levels to watch out for in BTC and major altcoins? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price prediction
BTC turned down from the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA)($88,593) on Friday, indicating a negative sentiment.
The crucial support to watch out for on the downside is $84,000. If this level gets violated, the Bitcoin price could resume its downtrend. The BTC/USDT pair could plunge to $80,600 and then to the formidable support at $74,508.
Contrarily, a close above the 20-day EMA brings the $84,000 to $94,589 range into play. Buyers will have to drive and maintain the price above $94,589 to signal strength. The pair could then rally toward the psychological level of $100,000.
Ether price prediction
Ether (ETH) continues to trade inside the symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating a balance between supply and demand.
If Ether price rises above the moving averages, the next stop could be the resistance line. Sellers are expected to defend the resistance line, as a break and close above it opens the door for a rally to $4,000.
Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below the support line, it suggests that the bears have overpowered the bulls. The ETH/USDT pair could then descend to $2,623 and later to $2,373.
BNB price prediction
BNB (BNB) has reached the uptrend line, which is a crucial level to watch in the near term.
Buyers will try to strengthen their position by pushing the BNB price above the moving averages. If they can pull it off, the BNB/USDT pair could challenge the $928 overhead resistance.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price continues lower and closes below the uptrend line, it signals that the bears have the advantage. The pair could then slide to the solid support at $790, where the buyers are expected to step in.
XRP price prediction
XRP (XRP) remains inside the descending channel pattern, but the bulls are attempting to start a recovery.
Buyers will have to drive the price above the 20-day EMA ($1.93) to signal strength. The XRP/USDT pair could then rally to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($2.09) and subsequently to the downtrend line.
Instead, if the XRP price turns down from the current level or the moving averages, it indicates that the bears are active at higher levels. The pair may then decline to the solid support at $1.61. Below this level, the pair may collapse to $1.25.
Solana price prediction
Buyers are attempting to start a recovery in Solana (SOL), but the long wick on the candlestick shows selling at higher levels.
If the price continues lower and breaks below $116, it signals the resumption of the downtrend. The SOL/USDT pair could slump to $108 and eventually to the critical support at $95.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA ($127). That suggests the bears are losing their grip. The Solana price could rise to the 50-day SMA ($135) and then to $147.
Dogecoin price prediction
Dogecoin (DOGE) remains below the $0.13 level, signalling that the bears have continued to exert pressure.
If the $0.12 level gives way, the DOGE/USDT pair could start the next leg of the downtrend to $0.10.
A minor positive for the bulls is the positive divergence on the relative strength index (RSI). That suggests the bearish momentum is weakening. Buyers will have to drive the Dogecoin price above the moving averages to signal that the market has rejected the break below $0.13. The pair could then rally toward $0.19.
Cardano price prediction
Buyers are attempting to start a recovery by pushing Cardano (ADA) back above the breakdown level of $0.37.
The positive divergence on the RSI suggests that sell-pressure is reducing. A close above the 20-day EMA ($0.38) signals the start of a recovery, which could reach the 50-day SMA ($0.43) and then $0.50.
Alternatively, if the Cardano price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it shows that the bears remain in command. The ADA/USDT pair could then nosedive to $0.30 and later to the Oct. 10 low of $0.27.
The bulls will attempt to drive the Bitcoin Cash price above the $631 resistance. If they manage to do that, the possibility of a break above $651 increases. The BCH/USDT pair could then surge to $720.
This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the moving averages. Such a move suggests the pair could consolidate between $443 and $631 for some time.
Chainlink price prediction
Chainlink (LINK) remains sandwiched between the 20-day EMA ($12.78) and the $11.61 support.
The tight range trading is likely to resolve with a range expansion in the next few days. If the price turns up and breaks above the moving averages, the LINK/USDT pair could climb to $15.01 and then to $16.80.
On the contrary, if Chainlink price turns down and breaks below the $11.61 support, it heightens the risk of a drop below $10.94. The pair could then plummet to the Oct. 10 low of $7.90.
Hyperliquid price prediction
Hyperliquid (HYPE) remains below the 20-day EMA ($26.72), but the bears have failed to sink the price below the $22.19 support.
The bulls will take advantage of the situation and attempt to push the price above the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the HYPE/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($32.22) and later to the breakdown level of $35.50.
On the other hand, if the Hyperliquid price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it signals that the bears remain in control. That increases the likelihood of a drop below $22.19. The pair could then plunge to the Oct. 10 low of $20.82.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
How often have you come across an image online and wondered, “Real or AI”? Have you ever felt trapped in a reality where AI-created and human-made content blur together? Do we still need to distinguish between them?
Artificial intelligence has unlocked a world of creative possibilities, but it has also brought new challenges, reshaping how we perceive content online. From AI-generated images, music and videos flooding social media to deepfakes and bots scamming users, AI now touches a vast part of the internet.
According to a study by Graphite, the amount of AI-made content surpassed human-created content in late 2024, primarily due to the launch of ChatGPT in 2022. Another study suggests that more than 74.2% of pages in its sample contained AI-generated content as of April 2025.
As AI-generated content becomes more sophisticated and nearly indistinguishable from human-made work, humanity faces a pressing question: How much can users truly identify what’s real as we enter 2026?
AI content fatigue kicks in: Demand for human-made content is rising
After a few years of excitement around AI’s “magic,” online users have been increasingly experiencing AI content fatigue, a collective exhaustion in response to the unrelenting pace of AI innovation.
According to a Pew Research Center survey, a median of 34% of adults globally were more concerned than excited about the increased use of AI in a spring 2025 survey, while 42% were equally concerned and excited.
“AI content fatigue has been cited in multiple studies as the novelty of AI-generated content is slowly wearing off, and in its current form, often feels predictable and available in abundance,” Adrian Ott, chief AI officer at EY Switzerland, told Cointelegraph.
Source: Pew Research
“In some sense, AI content can be compared to processed food,” he said, drawing parallels between how both these phenomena have evolved.
“When it first became possible, it flooded the market. But over time, people started going back to local, quality food where they know the origin,” Ott said, adding:
“It might go in a similar direction with content. You can make the case that humans like to know who is behind the thoughts that they read, and a painting is not only judged by its quality but by the story behind the artist.”
Ott suggested that labels like “human-crafted” might emerge as trust signals in online content, similar to “organic” in food.
Managing AI content: Certifying real content among working approaches
Although many may argue that most people can spot AI text or images without trying, the question of detecting AI-created content is more complicated.
A September Pew Research study found that at least 76% of Americans say it’s important to be able to spot AI content, and only 47% are confident they can accurately detect it.
“While some people fall for fake photos, videos or news, others might refuse to believe anything at all or conveniently dismiss real footage as ‘AI-generated’ when it doesn’t fit their narrative,” EY’s Ott said, highlighting the issues of managing AI content online.
Source: Pew Research
According to Ott, global regulators seem to be going in the direction of labeling AI content, but “there will always be ways around that.” Instead, he suggested a reverse approach, where real content is certified the moment it is captured, so authenticity can be traced back to an actual event rather than trying to detect fakes after the fact.
Blockchain’s role in figuring out the “proof of origin”
“With synthetic media becoming harder to distinguish from real footage, relying on authentication after the fact is no longer effective,” said Jason Crawforth, founder and CEO at Swear, a startup that develops video authentication software.
“Protection will come from systems that embed trust into content from the start,” Crawforth said, underscoring the key concept of Swear, which ensures that digital media is trustworthy from the moment it’s created using blockchain technology.
Swear’s video-authentication software has been named Time magazine’s Best Invention of 2025 in the Crypto and Blockchain category. Source: Time magazine
Swear’s authentication software employs a blockchain-based fingerprinting approach, where each piece of content is linked to a blockchain ledger to provide proof of origin — a verifiable “digital DNA” that cannot be altered without detection.
“Any modification, no matter how discreet, becomes identifiable by comparing the content to its blockchain-verified original in the Swear platform,” Crawforth said, adding:
“Without built-in authenticity, all media, past and present, faces the risk of doubt […] Swear doesn’t ask, ‘Is this fake?’, it proves ‘This is real.’ That shift is what makes our solution both proactive and future-proof in the fight toward protecting the truth.”
So far, Swear’s technology has been used among digital creators and enterprise partners, targeting mostly visual and audio media across video-capturing devices, including bodycams and drones.
“While social media integration is a long-term vision, our current focus is on the security and surveillance industry, where video integrity is mission-critical,” Crawforth said.
2026 outlook: Responsibility of platforms and inflection points
As we enter 2026, online users are increasingly concerned about the growing volume of AI-generated content and their ability to distinguish between synthetic and human-created media.
While AI experts emphasize the importance of clearly labeling “real” content versus AI-created media, it remains uncertain how quickly online platforms will recognize the need to prioritize trusted, human-made content as AI continues to flood the internet.
Dictionary publisher Merriam-Webster named slop as 2025 word or the year amid AI content concerns. Source: Merriam-Webster
“Ultimately, it’s the responsibility of platform providers to give users tools to filter out AI content and surface high-quality material. If they don’t, people will leave,” Ott said. “Right now, there’s not much individuals can do on their own to remove AI-generated content from their feeds — that control largely rests with the platforms.”
As the demand for tools that identify human-made media grows, it is important to recognize that the core issue is often not the AI content itself, but the intentions behind its creation. Deepfakes and misinformation are not entirely new phenomena, though AI has dramatically increased their scale and speed.
With only a handful of startups focused on identifying authentic content in 2025, the issue has not yet escalated to a point where platforms, governments or users are taking urgent, coordinated action.
According to Swear’s Crawforth, humanity has yet to reach the inflection point where manipulated media causes visible, undeniable harm:
“Whether in legal cases, investigations, corporate governance, journalism, or public safety. Waiting for that moment would be a mistake; the groundwork for authenticity should be laid now.”
Concerns are mounting that global equity markets may be drifting into another bubble, fueled by relentless optimism about AI. If that bubble cracks in 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market could be among the first to feel the fallout.
Key takeaways:
AI bubble risks could hit crypto first, as overstretched, debt-funded equity markets unwind.
Bitcoin may fall to $60,000–$75,000, but institutional support could help limit losses compared to past crashes.
AI bubble can trigger “severe” meltdown in stocks
In November, 45% of fund managers surveyed by Bank of America flagged an “AI bubble” as the market’s biggest tail risk, up from just 11% in September.
AI bubble vs. other risks in 2026. Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
More than half of respondents said they believe AI stocks are already trading in bubble territory, thanks to huge spending and poor return on investment.
Companies such as Meta Platforms, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Oracle have ramped up AI infrastructure spending in 2025.
Hyperscalers’ capital spending. Source: Bloomberg
That spending is expected to surge, with combined capital expenditures, or capex, predicted to rise 64% year-over-year to more than $500 billion by 2026, according to Alexander Joshi, Head of Behavioral Finance at Barclays UK.
“Estimates place AI data centres among the largest infrastructure build-outs in modern history,” he wrote in a November report, adding:
“AI data centres now drive a significant portion of US GDP growth. While not inherently bad, this dependence is risky if AI momentum stalls. If expectations break, the snapback could be severe.”
Financial analyst HedgieMarkets warned that the AI boom risks a far harsher crash than the 2000s dot-com bubble burst, arguing the sector spent roughly $400 billion to generate just $60 billion in revenue in 2025, with most firms seeing no returns.
🦔I think the AI bubble is going to pop, and when it does, it’s going to be uglier than people expect. Forrester predicts a market correction in 2026, and honestly, I think they’re being optimistic. The sector is spending $400 billion while only bringing in $60 billion in…
Unlike the equity-funded dot-com era, today’s AI expansion is debt-driven, raising the risk of cascading failures across private equity, banks, insurers, and already-stressed consumers if growth expectations collapse.
Economic historian Carlota Perez cautioned that an AI and crypto bust could lead to a global economic collapse of “unimaginable proportions.”
How low can Bitcoin go if AI bubble pops in 2026?
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino warned an AI sector correction could spill over into crypto markets in 2026, calling it the year’s “biggest risk for Bitcoin,” while citing its positive correlation with US equities as the basis for his bearish outlook.
BTC/USD and Nasdaq 100’s 52-week correlation coefficient chart. Source: TradingView
Ardoino added that BTC’s correction will not be as severe as it was during the 2022 (-77%) and 2018 (-84%) bear markets, due to its increasing institutional exposure.
As of December, Bitcoin was down by around 30% from its record high of $106,200.
Analyst Nomad Bullstreet said the Bitcoin price may not decline below its average production cost per coin in the $71,000-75,000 range, a target area previously suggested by BTC’s prevailing bearish flag pattern.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Concerns are mounting that global equity markets may be drifting into another bubble, fueled by relentless optimism about AI. If that bubble cracks in 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market could be among the first to feel the fallout.
Key takeaways:
AI bubble risks could hit crypto first, as overstretched, debt-funded equity markets unwind.
Bitcoin may fall to $60,000–$75,000, but institutional support could help limit losses compared to past crashes.
AI bubble can trigger “severe” meltdown in stocks
In November, 45% of fund managers surveyed by Bank of America flagged an “AI bubble” as the market’s biggest tail risk, up from just 11% in September.
AI bubble vs. other risks in 2026. Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
More than half of respondents said they believe AI stocks are already trading in bubble territory, thanks to huge spending and poor return on investment.
Companies such as Meta Platforms, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Oracle have ramped up AI infrastructure spending in 2025.
Hyperscalers’ capital spending. Source: Bloomberg
That spending is expected to surge, with combined capital expenditures, or capex, predicted to rise 64% year-over-year to more than $500 billion by 2026, according to Alexander Joshi, Head of Behavioral Finance at Barclays UK.
“Estimates place AI data centres among the largest infrastructure build-outs in modern history,” he wrote in a November report, adding:
“AI data centres now drive a significant portion of US GDP growth. While not inherently bad, this dependence is risky if AI momentum stalls. If expectations break, the snapback could be severe.”
Financial analyst HedgieMarkets warned that the AI boom risks a far harsher crash than the 2000s dot-com bubble burst, arguing the sector spent roughly $400 billion to generate just $60 billion in revenue in 2025, with most firms seeing no returns.
🦔I think the AI bubble is going to pop, and when it does, it’s going to be uglier than people expect. Forrester predicts a market correction in 2026, and honestly, I think they’re being optimistic. The sector is spending $400 billion while only bringing in $60 billion in…
Unlike the equity-funded dot-com era, today’s AI expansion is debt-driven, raising the risk of cascading failures across private equity, banks, insurers, and already-stressed consumers if growth expectations collapse.
Economic historian Carlota Perez cautioned that an AI and crypto bust could lead to a global economic collapse of “unimaginable proportions.”
How low can Bitcoin go if AI bubble pops in 2026?
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino warned an AI sector correction could spill over into crypto markets in 2026, calling it the year’s “biggest risk for Bitcoin,” while citing its positive correlation with US equities as the basis for his bearish outlook.
BTC/USD and Nasdaq 100’s 52-week correlation coefficient chart. Source: TradingView
Ardoino added that BTC’s correction will not be as severe as it was during the 2022 (-77%) and 2018 (-84%) bear markets, due to its increasing institutional exposure.
As of December, Bitcoin was down by around 30% from its record high of $106,200.
Analyst Nomad Bullstreet said the Bitcoin price may not decline below its average production cost per coin in the $71,000-75,000 range, a target area previously suggested by BTC’s prevailing bearish flag pattern.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Adoption is voluntary. Merchants participate because Bitcoin Lightning fees are typically under 1%, compared with the roughly 3% average charged by credit card networks.
Residents can pay municipal bills, including taxes, parking fines and tuition, in BTC or USDT using standard QR-code invoices.
The city balances the ecosystem by using BTC for payments, USDT for stability and LVGA as a local loyalty token.
The city does not hold volatile crypto assets. Payments are converted instantly into Swiss francs (CHF) through Bitcoin Suisse, limiting the city’s exposure to crypto price volatility.
The cobblestone streets of Lugano, Switzerland are better known for their Mediterranean-style piazzas and high-end boutiques than for radical economic shifts. But look closer at storefronts along Via Nassa, and the familiar “Visa” and “Mastercard” stickers have a new neighbor: a bright yellow “Plan ₿” decal.
In this lakeside enclave, Bitcoin is no longer just a digital asset tucked away in a cold wallet. It is a functional currency used to buy everything from a morning espresso to a Big Mac and even to settle municipal tax bills.
The vision behind a decentralized Plan ₿
Launched in 2022 as a partnership between the City of Lugano and Tether, Plan ₿ was not designed as a marketing stunt. It was conceived as a structural overhaul of the city’s financial rails.
While countries such as El Salvador have pursued top-down Bitcoin mandates, Lugano’s approach is quintessentially Swiss: voluntary, highly organized and focused on reducing merchant friction.
The ecosystem rests on three pillars: Bitcoin (BTC) for sovereign value, Tether’s USDt (USDT) for price stability in larger commerce and the LVGA token, a local stablecoin that powers a city-wide loyalty program.
The merchant experience and organic growth
For local shopkeepers, the transition to crypto is driven less by ideology and more by the bottom line. Traditional credit card processors in Switzerland can charge merchants upward of 3% per transaction. By contrast, Bitcoin payments made via the Lightning Network, a layer-2 protocol that enables instant, low-fee transactions, often cost less than 1%.
One local shop owner describes the shift as an organic process. It’s “like a tree growing,” he told the BBC. “This tree will grow very big in five, 10 years.” While crypto payments currently account for only a small share of his daily sales, the infrastructure is already in place, waiting for the “mass” in mass adoption.
To bridge the gap, the city distributed free smart POS terminals, provided by GoCrypto, to more than 350 merchants. These devices handle the technical heavy lifting. The merchant enters the price in Swiss francs (CHF), the customer scans a QR code, and the merchant can choose to receive the settlement instantly in CHF to avoid volatility or retain the crypto.
The circular economy
Lugano’s operational backbone is the MyLugano app. This is where the “how-to” of daily life in the city becomes tangible.
When users pay with crypto at participating local shops, they receive up to 10% cashback in LVGA tokens.
These tokens are not just digital points. They are pegged to the Swiss franc and accepted for city services, public parking and even childcare fees.
This creates a self-sustaining loop. A tourist might pay for a luxury watch in USDT, earn LVGA cashback and then use that “digital change” to pay for a boat ride across Lake Lugano. By keeping value within these digital rails, the city reduces reliance on certain traditional banking fee structures, keeping more transaction value within the local ecosystem.
Governance on the blockchain through taxes and fines
Perhaps the most radical “how-to” in Lugano is how residents interact with the state. Lugano is one of the few places in the world where all municipal invoices, from property taxes to parking tickets, can be paid using Bitcoin or Tether.
The process is remarkably mundane, which is exactly the point. An invoice arrives with a standard Swiss QR code. The resident scans it with a wallet, confirms the exchange rate, which is locked in for a short window to prevent slippage, and the debt is settled. The city’s administration describes this as a “complete automation” of financial flows, reducing the administrative burden on the local treasury.
Institutional infrastructure and the 2025 milestone
The momentum behind Plan ₿ reached a new peak in October 2025 during the fourth annual Plan ₿ Forum. The event drew a record 4,000 participants from 64 countries, representing a 140% increase in attendance since the project’s inception. This growth is not merely about tourism; it reflects a deepening level of institutional interest.
In 2025, Lugano further consolidated its position by issuing its fifth digital bond on SDX, the SIX Digital Exchange, demonstrating that blockchain infrastructure extends beyond retail payments to sophisticated municipal debt markets.
The city has also become a magnet for brain gain, attracting more than 110 crypto-related startups that have relocated to the region, drawn by the regulatory clarity provided under Switzerland’s FINMA framework.
The skeptical manager’s perspective on risk
However, any professional analysis must account for friction. Not everyone in Lugano is a believer. Local critics, including university students and some academics, remain wary. The primary concern is not the technology itself, but custodial risk.
In Switzerland, traditional bank deposits are protected by state-backed guarantees. Crypto assets held in digital wallets, however, do not benefit from the same protections. “If the platform where my digital wallet is recorded fails or goes bankrupt, my cryptocurrencies disappear,” warns Sergio Rossi, an economics professor at the University of Fribourg.
Finally, while the technical infrastructure may be fully in place, “psychological adoption” remains a generational challenge. Many residents still view Bitcoin primarily as an investment rather than as a medium of exchange.
Blueprint for the future
Lugano’s experiment suggests that large-scale Bitcoin integration may depend less on ideology and more on practical user interfaces. By focusing on three specific workflows, the city has created a repeatable model for municipalities worldwide:
Provide free hardware to merchants to remove the “entry fee” for adoption
Ensure the currency can be used for routine obligations such as taxes, not just discretionary purchases like luxury goods
Use a local loyalty token to keep value circulating within the city.
As the world watches central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) with a mix of curiosity and concern, Lugano offers a contrasting model: a city experimenting with private, decentralized and stable digital assets, positioned as an alternative to state-issued digital currencies.
Quantum computing has long been viewed as a threat to cryptocurrencies, a technology that could one day crack the cryptography securing Bitcoin and other blockchains. In 2026, that fear is resurfacing as major tech firms accelerate quantum research and investment.
While the technology is not yet ready for widespread use, the pace of investment and experimentation has gained traction. In February, Microsoft unveiled its Majorana 1 chip, which the company dubbed “the world’s first quantum chip powered by a new Topological Core architecture,” rekindling debate about how quickly quantum hardware might move from research into real-world systems.
However, despite growing attention, most experts say the risk to crypto remains theoretical, not imminent. The real concern, they argue, is not a sudden cryptographic collapse next year, but what attackers are already doing today to prepare for a post-quantum future.
Clark Alexander, co-founder and head of AI at Argentum AI, told Cointelegraph that he expects quantum computing to find “extremely limited commercial use” in 2026.
Nic Puckrin, crypto analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, was more blunt. “The whole ‘quantum threat to Bitcoin’ narrative is 90% marketing and 10% imminent threat… we’re almost certainly at least a decade away from computers that can actually break existing cryptography,” he said.
Why cryptocurrencies are at risk
Bitcoin (BTC) and most major blockchain networks rely on public-key cryptography to secure wallets and authorize transactions. Private keys sign transactions, public keys verify them, and hash functions secure the ledger. If a future quantum machine can derive private keys from public keys, funds could theoretically be stolen at scale.
The issue has even reached US regulators. In September, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)’s crypto task force received a proposal warning that quantum computing could eventually break the encryption protecting Bitcoin and other digital assets.
SEC reviews proposal to make crypto quantum-resistant. Source: Bitcoin Archive
At the technical level, consensus among cryptographers is that signatures are the weakest link. “Any cryptographic system whose security relies on a mathematical problem that Shor’s algorithm can efficiently solve (difficulty of factoring large semiprimes),” said Sofiia Kireieva, blockchain R&D and subject-matter expert at Boosty Labs.
She added that if a quantum-capable adversary targeted Bitcoin or a similar blockchain, the elliptic curve digital signature algorithm (ECDSA) used for private-public keys would be the “weakest link.” In contrast, the SHA-256 hash functions are much less vulnerable. Grover’s algorithm could at best give a quadratic speed-up, which is mitigated by using larger hashes, according to Kireieva.
Ahmad Shadid, founder of the Switzerland-based O Foundation, also said that signatures are the core vulnerability. “The cryptographic component that would be most vulnerable is the ECDSA digital signature algorithm, specifically, the security of public/private key pairs used to sign transactions, and especially with address reuse (this significantly increases vulnerability),” he said.
Despite rising concern, major technical barriers make a cryptographic collapse by 2026 highly unlikely.
Kireieva noted the physics barrier facing quantum hardware. “Current quantum devices have only hundreds or thousands of noisy qubits, it’s far below what’s needed to run deep algorithms like Shor’s… This means a realistic cryptanalytic attack would demand millions of physical qubits, ultra-low gate error rates, and the ability to perform millions of sequential operations without losing coherence,” she said.
A quantum computer would be able to derive a private key from a public key. Source: Anduro
Kireieva added that this would also require breakthroughs in materials science, quantum control, fabrication and signal isolation. “The bottleneck is not just engineering — it is the fundamental physics of the universe,” she said.
Alexander took this even further. He said that quantum computers are not only unlikely to break Bitcoin’s encryption by 2026, but may never do so under current approaches. He said that the real danger lies elsewhere, arguing that advances in classical computing pose a greater risk to encryption than quantum systems, and that both quantum and conventional machines would require fundamentally new algorithms before public-key cryptography could be realistically compromised.
Meanwhile, the real threat in 2026 is not that Bitcoin breaks; it is that attackers are already collecting data.
“The quantum threat coming to life in 2026 is highly unlikely,” said Sean Ren, co-founder of Sahara AI, “but bad actors are already collecting as much encrypted data as possible… so that, when the tech is ready, all that archived data becomes readable.”
Leo Fan, co-founder of Cysic, echoed that view, saying that one typical attack scenario is “harvest now, decrypt later,” where adversaries are already collecting sensitive encrypted data to unlock once quantum breakthroughs arrive.
More than half of TLS 1.3 traffic is using post-quantum (PQ) encryption. Source: Cloudflare Radar
Shadid explained that this means that someone could be downloading terabytes of this publicly accessible onchain data simply to collect public keys, which can then be used with a quantum computer to decode private keys.
Millions of Bitcoin remain exposed: How is crypto preparing?
Kireieva estimated that 25%–30% of all BTC (around 4 million coins) are in vulnerable addresses, addresses whose public keys have already been exposed onchain, making them more susceptible to private-key recovery by a sufficiently powerful quantum computer.
She advised users to minimize exposure by avoiding address reuse, ensuring public keys remain hidden until funds are spent, and staying prepared to migrate to quantum-resistant wallets and address formats as soon as they become available.
The crypto community has also taken practical steps. In July, cryptography experts outlined a plan to replace Bitcoin’s current signature systems with quantum-resistant alternatives, noting that about a quarter of Bitcoin’s funds are already exposed due to public keys being revealed onchain.
In November, Qastle announced plans to bring quantum-grade security to hot wallets by upgrading the cryptography behind the scenes. Instead of relying on predictable software-based randomness, it uses quantum-generated randomness and post-quantum encryption to protect keys, transactions and communications, all without extra hardware or complicated setup.
The crypto industry faces no quantum doomsday in 2026. However, the conversation about the threat of shifts from “if” to “when.”
“The likelihood that a major quantum attack… occurs by 2026 is low-to-moderate,” Fan said. “However, the likelihood that quantum becomes a top-tier risk factor for crypto security awareness in 2026… is high,” he added.
Quantum computing has long been viewed as a threat to cryptocurrencies, a technology that could one day crack the cryptography securing Bitcoin and other blockchains. In 2026, that fear is resurfacing as major tech firms accelerate quantum research and investment.
While the technology is not yet ready for widespread use, the pace of investment and experimentation has gained traction. In February, Microsoft unveiled its Majorana 1 chip, which the company dubbed “the world’s first quantum chip powered by a new Topological Core architecture,” rekindling debate about how quickly quantum hardware might move from research into real-world systems.
However, despite growing attention, most experts say the risk to crypto remains theoretical, not imminent. The real concern, they argue, is not a sudden cryptographic collapse next year, but what attackers are already doing today to prepare for a post-quantum future.
Clark Alexander, co-founder and head of AI at Argentum AI, told Cointelegraph that he expects quantum computing to find “extremely limited commercial use” in 2026.
Nic Puckrin, crypto analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, was more blunt. “The whole ‘quantum threat to Bitcoin’ narrative is 90% marketing and 10% imminent threat… we’re almost certainly at least a decade away from computers that can actually break existing cryptography,” he said.
Why cryptocurrencies are at risk
Bitcoin (BTC) and most major blockchain networks rely on public-key cryptography to secure wallets and authorize transactions. Private keys sign transactions, public keys verify them, and hash functions secure the ledger. If a future quantum machine can derive private keys from public keys, funds could theoretically be stolen at scale.
The issue has even reached US regulators. In September, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)’s crypto task force received a proposal warning that quantum computing could eventually break the encryption protecting Bitcoin and other digital assets.
SEC reviews proposal to make crypto quantum-resistant. Source: Bitcoin Archive
At the technical level, consensus among cryptographers is that signatures are the weakest link. “Any cryptographic system whose security relies on a mathematical problem that Shor’s algorithm can efficiently solve (difficulty of factoring large semiprimes),” said Sofiia Kireieva, blockchain R&D and subject-matter expert at Boosty Labs.
She added that if a quantum-capable adversary targeted Bitcoin or a similar blockchain, the elliptic curve digital signature algorithm (ECDSA) used for private-public keys would be the “weakest link.” In contrast, the SHA-256 hash functions are much less vulnerable. Grover’s algorithm could at best give a quadratic speed-up, which is mitigated by using larger hashes, according to Kireieva.
Ahmad Shadid, founder of the Switzerland-based O Foundation, also said that signatures are the core vulnerability. “The cryptographic component that would be most vulnerable is the ECDSA digital signature algorithm, specifically, the security of public/private key pairs used to sign transactions, and especially with address reuse (this significantly increases vulnerability),” he said.
Despite rising concern, major technical barriers make a cryptographic collapse by 2026 highly unlikely.
Kireieva noted the physics barrier facing quantum hardware. “Current quantum devices have only hundreds or thousands of noisy qubits, it’s far below what’s needed to run deep algorithms like Shor’s… This means a realistic cryptanalytic attack would demand millions of physical qubits, ultra-low gate error rates, and the ability to perform millions of sequential operations without losing coherence,” she said.
A quantum computer would be able to derive a private key from a public key. Source: Anduro
Kireieva added that this would also require breakthroughs in materials science, quantum control, fabrication and signal isolation. “The bottleneck is not just engineering — it is the fundamental physics of the universe,” she said.
Alexander took this even further. He said that quantum computers are not only unlikely to break Bitcoin’s encryption by 2026, but may never do so under current approaches. He said that the real danger lies elsewhere, arguing that advances in classical computing pose a greater risk to encryption than quantum systems, and that both quantum and conventional machines would require fundamentally new algorithms before public-key cryptography could be realistically compromised.
Meanwhile, the real threat in 2026 is not that Bitcoin breaks; it is that attackers are already collecting data.
“The quantum threat coming to life in 2026 is highly unlikely,” said Sean Ren, co-founder of Sahara AI, “but bad actors are already collecting as much encrypted data as possible… so that, when the tech is ready, all that archived data becomes readable.”
Leo Fan, co-founder of Cysic, echoed that view, saying that one typical attack scenario is “harvest now, decrypt later,” where adversaries are already collecting sensitive encrypted data to unlock once quantum breakthroughs arrive.
More than half of TLS 1.3 traffic is using post-quantum (PQ) encryption. Source: Cloudflare Radar
Shadid explained that this means that someone could be downloading terabytes of this publicly accessible onchain data simply to collect public keys, which can then be used with a quantum computer to decode private keys.
Millions of Bitcoin remain exposed: How is crypto preparing?
Kireieva estimated that 25%–30% of all BTC (around 4 million coins) are in vulnerable addresses, addresses whose public keys have already been exposed onchain, making them more susceptible to private-key recovery by a sufficiently powerful quantum computer.
She advised users to minimize exposure by avoiding address reuse, ensuring public keys remain hidden until funds are spent, and staying prepared to migrate to quantum-resistant wallets and address formats as soon as they become available.
The crypto community has also taken practical steps. In July, cryptography experts outlined a plan to replace Bitcoin’s current signature systems with quantum-resistant alternatives, noting that about a quarter of Bitcoin’s funds are already exposed due to public keys being revealed onchain.
In November, Qastle announced plans to bring quantum-grade security to hot wallets by upgrading the cryptography behind the scenes. Instead of relying on predictable software-based randomness, it uses quantum-generated randomness and post-quantum encryption to protect keys, transactions and communications, all without extra hardware or complicated setup.
The crypto industry faces no quantum doomsday in 2026. However, the conversation about the threat of shifts from “if” to “when.”
“The likelihood that a major quantum attack… occurs by 2026 is low-to-moderate,” Fan said. “However, the likelihood that quantum becomes a top-tier risk factor for crypto security awareness in 2026… is high,” he added.
Keonne Rodriguez, co-founder of Bitcoin privacy tool Samourai Wallet, spent Christmas Eve documenting his first day inside a US federal prison, offering a personal account as a crypto developer now serving a five-year sentence.
In a letter shared by The Rage, he described the experience of surrendering himself to the prison camp. The account detailed the intake process, which included searches, medical clearances and the transition into prison housing.
Rodriguez also described the emotional weight of leaving his family days before Christmas.
“While not at all comfortable, it is manageable. While I rather be at home with my wife and family, there are far worse places I could have ended up,” Rodriguez wrote. “I am thankful that all the prisoners here are respectful and downright friendly.”
The letter, dated Wednesday, Christmas Eve, marked the developer’s seventh day at the facility. He said that he was scheduled to receive his wife as his first visitor on Christmas Day.
Rodriguez’s imprisonment has become a focal point for debates over the criminal liability of open-source developers, particularly those working on crypto privacy tools. The case has been closely watched alongside the prosecution of Roman Storm, a co-founder of Tornado Cash, raising questions about whether writing and maintaining code can be treated as a criminal offense when third parties use that software for illicit activity.
Rodriguez celebrated Christmas early this year before going to prison. Source: Keonne Rodriguez
Community members sign petition for pardon
Rodriguez was sentenced on Nov. 19 on charges stemming from his involvement in the crypto mixing protocol.
A petition calling for clemency for Rodriguez had gathered over 12,000 signatures, reflecting sustained concern among privacy advocates and open-source developers. The petition described Rodriguez’s case as “a chilling attack on free speech and innovation.”
US President Donald Trump said he would review the case of Rodriguez, signaling a potential opening for clemency, after he started serving his sentence.
Speaking to reporters on Dec. 16, Trump said he had heard about the case and would “take a look at it,” adding that he was not familiar with the details but was open to reviewing it.
In a social post on Saturday, Rodriguez publicly called on Trump to grant a pardon, framing his prosecution as an example of “lawfare” carried out under the previous administration.
He argued that his case involved no direct victims and accused regulators and judges of targeting him as part of an anti-innovation agenda.
While Trump has not commented further on the request, his statement has kept the possibility of executive clemency in focus as the developer began serving his sentence.
AAVE price prediction shows potential 25-40% upside to $190-215 range within 4-6 weeks as oversold RSI at 34.75 and strong support at $146.40 set up recovery scenario.
The AAVE price prediction landscape has shifted dramatically as the token trades near critical support levels, presenting both significant risk and substantial upside potential. With AAVE currently priced at $151.43, down over 57% from its 52-week high of $357.78, technical indicators suggest a potential reversal is brewing.
AAVE Price Prediction Summary
• AAVE short-term target (1 week): $165-175 (+9% to +16%)
• Aave medium-term forecast (1 month): $190-216 range (+25% to +43%) • Key level to break for bullish continuation: $180.34 (SMA 20 resistance)
• Critical support if bearish: $146.40 (immediate support level)
Recent Aave Price Predictions from Analysts
The latest AAVE price prediction consensus among analysts reveals a cautiously optimistic outlook despite current technical challenges. Blockchain.News has issued an Aave forecast targeting $190 in the medium term, citing oversold RSI conditions at 35.7 and the critical $146.40 support level holding firm.
More aggressive predictions come from LeveX, projecting an AAVE price target of $340-350 in the short term based on technical breakout patterns with volume confirmation. However, this contrasts sharply with Hexn’s more conservative $150 target, suggesting significant disagreement among analysts about the near-term trajectory.
AInvest’s $216.75 AAVE price target appears most balanced, incorporating both the upcoming v4 upgrade catalyst and increasing institutional adoption trends. The market consensus generally favors recovery, but the wide range of predictions ($150-350) indicates substantial uncertainty in current market conditions.
AAVE Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Oversold Bounce
The current Aave technical analysis reveals a token positioned at a critical inflection point. With RSI at 34.75, AAVE has moved into oversold territory without reaching extreme levels, suggesting potential for a relief rally rather than a major reversal.
The MACD histogram at -4.1623 continues to show bearish momentum, but several analysts note early signs of this momentum weakening. AAVE’s position at 0.08 within the Bollinger Bands places it extremely close to the lower band at $145.62, historically a level where bounces occur.
Volume analysis shows mixed signals, with 24-hour trading volume of $11.6 million on Binance representing adequate but not exceptional participation. The daily ATR of $12.98 suggests normal volatility levels, providing reasonable risk parameters for position sizing.
Most concerning is AAVE’s position below all major moving averages, with the nearest resistance at the 7-day SMA of $161.18. The 20-day SMA at $180.34 represents the critical level that must be reclaimed for any sustained Aave forecast to turn bullish.
Aave Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for AAVE
The bullish AAVE price prediction scenario targets the $190-216 range based on several converging factors. Initial resistance at $161.18 (SMA 7) should provide the first test, followed by the more significant $180.34 level (SMA 20).
A successful break above $180.34 would activate the $190 AAVE price target identified by multiple analysts. The next logical target sits at $216.75, representing the middle Bollinger Band and a 43% gain from current levels.
The most aggressive scenario sees AAVE reaching the $340-350 range, but this would require a complete trend reversal and breakthrough of the $232.25 strong resistance level. This outcome depends heavily on the v4 upgrade catalyst and broader DeFi market recovery.
Bearish Risk for Aave
The bearish case for this AAVE price prediction centers on the failure to hold the $146.40 support level. A break below this critical level would likely trigger stops and accelerate selling toward the 52-week low of $138.42.
Further downside could target the $135 level identified in analyst predictions, representing a 10% decline from current prices. The bearish scenario gains credence if RSI breaks below 30 into deeply oversold territory while MACD histogram extends its negative readings.
Risk factors include broader crypto market weakness, DeFi sector underperformance, and any delays or issues with the anticipated v4 upgrade that forms a cornerstone of bullish predictions.
Should You Buy AAVE Now? Entry Strategy
The current setup suggests a measured approach rather than aggressive accumulation. For those considering whether to buy or sell AAVE, the technical picture supports scaled entries rather than large single purchases.
Primary entry zone: $146.40-151.43 (current support to current price) Secondary entry: $138.42-142 (if support breaks for deeper value) Stop-loss level: $135 (below 52-week low) Initial target: $165-175 (7-day SMA area)
Position sizing should account for the 15-20% risk to the stop-loss level. The risk-reward ratio favors buyers at current levels, with potential for 25-40% gains against 10-15% maximum loss if stops are honored.
For conservative investors, waiting for a break above $161.18 would provide confirmation of the bullish scenario, albeit at slightly higher entry prices.
AAVE Price Prediction Conclusion
This AAVE price prediction maintains a medium confidence level for upside to the $190-216 range over the next 4-6 weeks. The combination of oversold technical conditions, strong support at $146.40, and upcoming fundamental catalysts creates a favorable risk-reward setup.
Key indicators to monitor for confirmation include RSI holding above 30, MACD histogram stabilization, and most critically, reclaiming the $161.18 level on sustained volume. Invalidation would occur on a break below $146.40 with increased selling pressure.
The timeline for this Aave forecast centers on the next 4-6 weeks, when technical oversold conditions should resolve and fundamental developments around the v4 upgrade provide direction. Traders should remain flexible as the wide range of analyst predictions suggests significant uncertainty remains in AAVE’s near-term path.
