Israeli authorities have arrested and indicted two people for allegedly using secret information to place bets on the predictions market Polymarket related to Israel striking Iran.
In a joint statement on Thursday, Israel’s Defense Ministry, its internal security service Shin Bet, and police said a military reservist and a civilian were arrested after an investigation found that the reservist obtained classified information to place the bets.
The prosecutor’s office will pursue criminal charges for security-related offenses, bribery, and obstruction of justice. Authorities said the reservist was working for Shin Bet.
Prediction markets have seen major insider trading scandals this year after a Polymarket user won a bet that Nicolás Maduro would be ousted as Venezuelan president hours before he was captured by US forces, profiting around $400,000.
The Israeli state-owned news outlet Kan reported last month that the Polymarket user “ricosuave666” placed several bets related to Israel’s military operations in Iran in June 2025, but it’s unknown if those arrested are behind the account.
The account reportedly wagered tens of thousands of dollars and earned over $152,300, betting on markets such as “Israel strike on Iran on June 24” and “Israel military action against Iran by Friday,” with the latter winning over $128,700.
Trades placed by Polymarket user ricosuave666 related to Israel’s attacks on Iran. Source: Kan
Prediction markets lead to real security risks when misused
Lawmakers worldwide have raised concerns that insider knowledge could be exploited in prediction markets, undermining market integrity and eroding public trust.
Israel’s Ministry of Defense said bets based on secret information pose a “real security risk for Israel Defense Forces activity and national activity,” adding that Israel’s military, security and police units will continue to pursue action against anyone who uses classified information illegally.
A lawyer representing the reservist told Bloomberg that the indictment is “flawed,” adding that the charge of harming national security has been dropped.
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BTC open interest falls to $34 billion, but stable BTC-denominated volume suggests leverage demand remains unchanged.
Weak US jobs data and Bitcoin options skew indicate a bearish shift, even as gold and stocks show relative strength.
Bitcoin (BTC) price has struggled to sustain levels above $72,000 for the past week, leading investors to question whether institutional demand has evaporated. The aggregate Bitcoin futures open interest plummeted to its lowest level since November 2024, fueling fears of a retest of the $60,000 support amid growing uncertainty.
BTC futures aggregate open interest, USD. Source: CoinGlass
The aggregate BTC futures open interest hit $34 billion on Thursday, a 28% drop from 30 days prior. However, when measured in Bitcoin terms, the metric remains virtually flat at BTC 502,450, suggesting that demand for leverage has not actually decreased. Part of this decline is also attributable to forced liquidations, which totaled $5.2 billion over the past two weeks.
Investors are increasingly frustrated by the lack of a clear catalyst for Bitcoin’s 28% decline over the last month, especially as gold reclaimed the $5,000 psychological level and the S&P 500 traded just 1% below its all-time high. Some analysts argue that this risk-aversion stems from emerging signs of weakness in the US labor market.
The US Labor Department revealed on Wednesday that the US economy added only 181,000 jobs in 2025, a figure weaker than previously reported. However, the White House has downplayed these concerns. According to the BBC, officials argue that the slowdown in population growth resulting from its immigration policies has reduced the number of jobs the US needs to create.
US weekly initial jobless claims (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: Tradingview
Bitcoin’s record 52% crash on March 13, 2020, occurred during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic fears, which anticipated a surge in jobless claims. If economic growth is currently at risk, odds are the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sooner than anticipated. This reduces companies’ cost of capital and eases financing conditions for consumers, which helps explain the stock market strength seen in 2026.
The lack of confidence in Bitcoin is evident through the weak demand for bullish leveraged positions, making the decoupling from traditional markets even more worrisome.
The annualized funding rate on Bitcoin futures held below the neutral 12% threshold for the past four months, signaling fear. Thus, even as the indicator recovered from the negative levels of the prior week, bears continue to have the upper hand. Professional traders remain unwilling to take downside price risk exposure, according to Bitcoin options markets.
BTC 30-day options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch
The BTC options delta skew at Deribit surged to 22% on Thursday as put (sell) instruments traded at a premium. Under normal circumstances, the indicator should range between -6% and +6%, reflecting balanced upside and downside risk aversion. This skew metric last flipped bullish in May 2025 after Bitcoin reclaimed the $93,000 level following a retest of $75,000.
While derivatives metrics reflect weakness, the $5.4 billion average daily trading volume in US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) contradicts speculation that institutional demand is fading. Although it is impossible to predict what will cause buyers to display strength, Bitcoin’s recovery likely depends on improved visibility into the US job market conditions.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
AAVE trades at $106.85 with RSI at 30.21 signaling potential oversold bounce. Technical analysis suggests recovery to $115-120 range in coming weeks despite bearish momentum.
Aave (AAVE) is showing signs of potential recovery as the token trades at $106.85, with technical indicators suggesting an oversold bounce could be on the horizon. Despite recent bearish momentum, our AAVE price prediction indicates a possible rally toward key resistance levels in the near term.
Recent analyst forecasts from January showed optimism for AAVE’s potential. Caroline Bishop predicted an “AAVE price prediction shows potential rally to $190-$195 range by February 2026, driven by oversold RSI recovery and analyst targets up to $213. Current $165 level offers entry opportunity.”
However, with AAVE now trading significantly lower at $106.85, these earlier predictions appear overly optimistic given current market conditions. Joerg Hiller’s analysis suggesting AAVE “could rally 18-25% from current levels” remains more realistic, which would target the $125-135 range from today’s prices.
According to on-chain data and technical metrics, AAVE’s current positioning suggests the token may be approaching oversold conditions that could trigger a relief rally.
AAVE Technical Analysis Breakdown
The technical landscape for AAVE presents a mixed but potentially improving picture:
RSI Analysis: At 30.21, AAVE’s RSI sits in neutral territory but approaching oversold levels below 30, suggesting selling pressure may be exhausting.
Moving Average Structure: AAVE trades well below all major moving averages, with the 7-day SMA at $111.01 providing immediate resistance. The 20-day SMA at $128.58 represents a significant hurdle, while the 200-day SMA at $222.36 shows the extent of the longer-term downtrend.
MACD Signals: The MACD histogram at -0.0000 indicates bearish momentum is flatlining, potentially signaling a momentum shift. The MACD and signal lines converging at -13.8005 suggest we may be approaching a potential bullish crossover.
Bollinger Bands: With AAVE’s %B position at 0.2135, the token trades closer to the lower band ($90.65) than the upper band ($166.51), indicating oversold conditions within the recent range.
Aave Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
A recovery rally could target the immediate resistance at $109.90, followed by the strong resistance at $112.95. Breaking above these levels would open the path toward the 7-day SMA at $111.01 and potentially the 12-day EMA at $117.06.
The ultimate bullish target remains the 20-day SMA at $128.58, which would represent a 20% gain from current levels. This Aave forecast aligns with historical oversold bounces in the DeFi sector.
Bearish Scenario
Failure to hold immediate support at $104.60 could lead to a test of strong support at $102.35. A break below this level might trigger further selling toward the Bollinger Band lower boundary at $90.65.
The daily ATR of $11.48 suggests significant volatility remains, with potential for swift moves in either direction.
Should You Buy AAVE? Entry Strategy
Current levels around $106.85 offer a reasonable risk-reward setup for traders comfortable with volatility. Consider:
Immediate: $105-107 range on any dips
Conservative: Wait for RSI to drop below 30 for confirmed oversold conditions
Stop Loss: Place protective stops below $100 to limit downside risk
Risk Management: Given AAVE’s high volatility (ATR of $11.48), position sizing should account for potential 10%+ daily moves.
Conclusion
Our AAVE price prediction suggests a potential recovery to the $115-120 range over the next 1-2 weeks, based on oversold RSI conditions and converging MACD signals. However, the broader technical picture remains challenging with AAVE trading below all major moving averages.
The medium-term Aave forecast of $120-135 depends on broader DeFi market recovery and successful defense of the $102.35 support level. Traders should remain cautious given the token’s 52% decline from recent highs.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are speculative and should not constitute financial advice. AAVE and all cryptocurrencies carry significant risk of loss. Always conduct your own research and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
LDO trades at $0.33 with RSI at 26.36 indicating oversold territory. Technical analysis suggests potential bounce to resistance levels as Lido DAO approaches critical support zones.
According to recent analysis from Peter Zhang on February 2, 2026: “LDO trades at $0.43 with RSI at 29.44 signaling oversold conditions. Technical analysis suggests potential bounce to $0.53 resistance level within 4 weeks as Lido DAO approaches key support zones.”
While specific analyst predictions have been limited in recent days, on-chain metrics suggest that LDO’s current positioning near oversold territory could present an opportunity for contrarian traders. The token’s technical setup mirrors classic reversal patterns seen in previous market cycles.
LDO Technical Analysis Breakdown
Lido DAO’s current technical picture presents a compelling case for potential upside movement. Trading at $0.33, LDO sits significantly below all major moving averages, with the 20-day SMA at $0.42 representing the first major resistance hurdle.
The RSI at 26.36 places LDO firmly in oversold territory, typically a precursor to bounce attempts. This oversold reading, combined with the token’s position at 0.20 on the Bollinger Bands (very close to the lower band at $0.28), suggests we’re approaching a technical inflection point.
The MACD histogram at effectively zero (-0.0000) indicates that bearish momentum may be exhausting itself, though the negative MACD reading of -0.0592 suggests caution is still warranted. The Stochastic oscillator readings (%K at 23.28, %D at 18.62) further confirm the oversold condition.
Key resistance levels emerge at $0.34 (immediate) and $0.35 (strong), while support holds at $0.32 (immediate) and $0.31 (strong). The daily ATR of $0.04 suggests moderate volatility, providing reasonable risk-reward setups for position sizing.
Lido DAO Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
In a bullish scenario for this Lido DAO forecast, LDO could target the $0.37 level (EMA 12) as the first significant milestone, representing a 12% upside from current levels. A break above $0.35 resistance with volume confirmation could accelerate the move toward the 20-day SMA at $0.42, offering 27% upside potential.
The ultimate bull target remains the $0.53 level (50-day SMA), which would represent a 60% rally from current prices. This target aligns with analyst Peter Zhang’s recent forecast and would require sustained buying pressure and broader market support.
Technical confirmation needed includes RSI moving back above 30, MACD histogram turning positive, and a decisive break above the $0.35 resistance level with increased trading volume.
Bearish Scenario
The bearish case for this LDO price prediction centers on a break below the $0.31 strong support level. Such a move could trigger further selling toward the Bollinger Band lower boundary at $0.28, representing a 15% downside risk.
A more severe scenario could see LDO test psychological support around $0.25, particularly if broader crypto markets face headwinds. The significant distance from the 200-day SMA at $0.86 highlights the token’s weakened long-term technical position.
Risk factors include continued low trading volume ($2.5M on Binance), potential liquidation cascades below key support levels, and any negative developments in the liquid staking sector.
Should You Buy LDO? Entry Strategy
Based on current technical conditions, a staged entry approach appears most prudent for this Lido DAO forecast. Consider initial positions around $0.33-$0.32, with additional buying planned if the token approaches the $0.31 strong support level.
A stop-loss below $0.30 would limit downside risk to approximately 9%, while targeting the $0.37-$0.42 range offers favorable risk-reward ratios. More aggressive traders might wait for confirmation above $0.35 before entering, sacrificing some upside for improved probability.
Position sizing should reflect the token’s elevated volatility and the current uncertain market environment. Consider limiting LDO exposure to 2-3% of total portfolio allocation until clearer directional momentum emerges.
Conclusion
This LDO price prediction suggests that while near-term risks remain, the technical setup favors patient buyers willing to accumulate near current levels. The oversold RSI reading, proximity to Bollinger Band support, and analyst target of $0.53 within four weeks provide a constructive medium-term outlook.
However, the token’s position well below all major moving averages and weak MACD readings counsel against aggressive positioning. A measured approach with proper risk management appears most appropriate as LDO navigates these critical technical levels.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
A simple data-entry error allowed 620,000 nonexistent BTC to appear in user accounts for 20 minutes because trades update a private database first, with onchain settlement happening later.
Around 1,788 BTC worth of trades were executed before the exchange locked everything down. What could have been dismissed as a harmless error turned into a serious operational and regulatory event.
Regulatory filings showed Bithumb held only 175 BTC of its own in Q3 2025, while it held custody of over 42,000 BTC for customers. This highlights how heavily the system depends on accurate internal accounting.
South Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service focused on why faulty internal data could result in executable trades. It raised fundamental questions about safeguards and tradability controls.
Bithumb, one of South Korea’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, ran a regular promotional campaign in early February 2026. However, it turned into a major regulatory concern. What started as a simple internal data-entry mistake briefly displayed hundreds of thousands of “ghost Bitcoin” on user dashboards. Some account holders actually traded those balances, prompting regulators to examine the inner mechanisms of centralized crypto platforms more closely.
This article explores how the ghost Bitcoin incident became a key example of vulnerabilities in exchange accounting. It also discusses the reasons behind South Korea’s accelerated move toward more rigorous, bank-like supervision of virtual asset services.
From a modest promotion to a serious error
Bithumb intended to offer a small reward program, crediting users with a modest amount of Korean won, typically 2,000 won ($1.37) per person. Reward programs are a standard tactic to boost user activity.
Instead, an input mistake caused the system to credit Bitcoin (BTC) rather than fiat. For about 20 minutes, the exchange’s internal ledger reflected roughly 620,000 BTC across hundreds of accounts. The value of the ghost BTC was in billions of dollars, vastly exceeding the exchange’s own holdings and total customer reserves.
Staff quickly detected the problem, froze the affected accounts and reversed the credits. But during that brief period, some users sold the ghost Bitcoin in their accounts, executing trades worth around 1,788 BTC before a full lockdown.
Although payouts were processed, it appears that no tokens actually left the exchange. Later, the platform successfully recovered 93% of the lost value in a mix of Korean won and other cryptocurrencies.
How “ghost Bitcoin” can exist
Centralized exchanges operate differently from decentralized ones. They do not settle every trade onchain in real time. Instead, they update user balances on an internal ledger, a private database, allowing fast execution. Onchain movements are batched and processed later, often during deposits or withdrawals.
This architecture facilitates quick trading, high liquidity and competitive fees, but it relies entirely on the accuracy of the exchange’s internal records. Users essentially trust that these records match real asset holdings.
In this case, the ledger temporarily showed unbacked Bitcoin balances. According to a regulatory filing, Bithumb’s own Bitcoin reserves were surprisingly lean in Q3 2025, holding only 175 BTC compared to the 42,619 BTC it manages for its customers.
Did you know? South Korea was among the first countries to mandate real-name bank accounts for crypto trading, a rule introduced in 2018 to curb anonymous speculation and reduce money laundering risks in digital asset markets.
Why regulators viewed it as a systematic failure
South Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) acted promptly, concluding that the problem was not merely a typing error but that trades proceeded based on faulty internal data.
This raised core questions: How can an exchange enable trading of assets it does not hold? What safeguards could prevent erroneous balances from becoming tradable? And who is accountable when users benefit from such mistakes?
The FSS conducted on-site inspections at Bithumb and indicated that a formal probe could be launched to examine whether any laws were breached. They cited the event as evidence that existing crypto rules may not sufficiently address internal system oversight.
Ripple effects of the Bitcoin promotion error in the industry
The incident’s impact extended well beyond Bithumb, triggering a wave of industry-wide scrutiny. Digital Asset eXchange Alliance, South Korea’s major crypto alliance, responded by launching a thorough audit of internal controls across all member platforms.
Meanwhile, legislators pointed to the event as evidence of systemic vulnerabilities in centralized exchanges. They noted that operational security had failed to keep pace with the market’s rapid growth.
Ultimately, the crisis highlighted a harsh reality: A single exchange’s failure could threaten the stability of the entire ecosystem.
Did you know? In traditional finance, similar “fat-finger” errors have triggered billion-dollar equity market disruptions, including temporary trading halts on major stock exchanges, showing that operational risk is not unique to crypto.
Liability and consumer protection concerns
A key debate arose over the liability of trades executed on erroneous credits. Some users sold BTC quickly before account freezes took effect. Bithumb reported recovering most of the value and absorbing shortfalls with its own funds. Regulators noted that, under applicable laws, users who profited from erroneous credits could potentially be subject to clawback or restitution claims.
This incident exposed ambiguities in centralized crypto platforms. Displayed balances appear definitive to users, yet they remain reversible if systems make an error. The case compelled regulators to address how protections apply when technical failures produce real financial outcomes.
Advancing to “Phase Two” regulation
Regulators stated that the incident exposed regulatory blind spots in earlier digital asset laws. As they pointed out, regulations emphasized custody, Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and the prevention of manipulation but largely overlooked internal ledger management.
The event is now driving discussions regarding enhanced oversight of the crypto ecosystem, including:
Required multi-level approvals for promotions and credits
Stricter, more frequent checks between ledgers and actual reserves
Defined procedures for erroneous trades and reversals
Audit and disclosure standards comparable to traditional finance.
This shift moves beyond token listings or promotions to scrutinize the underlying operational infrastructure.
Did you know? South Korea’s crypto trading volumes frequently spike during overnight US market hours, reflecting how global time zones can amplify the impact of exchange incidents beyond domestic users.
A test of trust in centralized exchanges
Although Bithumb took steps quickly to limit the damage, the impact on its reputation is likely to linger. The incident taught users that a balance displayed on a centralized exchange indicates a claim on the platform’s internal systems. It does not indicate direct ownership of onchain assets.
For regulators, the Bitcoin promotion error pointed to a broader concern. As digital asset markets expand, public trust rests on internal mechanisms that function entirely behind closed doors. Should these protocols falter even briefly, the impact could be severe. South Korea’s response has made it evident that regulators now view ledger integrity in crypto exchanges as a systemic risk rather than just an operational detail.
The “ghost Bitcoin” episode will remain in public memory not primarily for its magnitude but for the critical vulnerability it exposed. In crypto transactions, the invisible accounting systems working behind the scenes are as important as the blockchains functioning underneath.
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Dogecoin shows signs of potential rebound with RSI at neutral 33.76 and strong support at $0.09. Technical indicators suggest DOGE could test $0.10 resistance within weeks. DOGE Price Prediction S…
Dogecoin shows signs of potential rebound with RSI at neutral 33.76 and strong support at $0.09. Technical indicators suggest DOGE could test $0.10 resistance within weeks.
While specific analyst predictions are limited for recent trading sessions, on-chain metrics suggest Dogecoin is finding stability around current price levels. According to market data from major exchanges, DOGE has maintained relatively strong trading volume with $60.8 million in 24-hour Binance spot trading, indicating sustained investor interest despite recent price consolidation.
The absence of recent high-profile predictions from crypto Twitter influencers suggests the market is in a wait-and-see mode, with traders focusing more on technical levels rather than speculative catalysts.
DOGE Technical Analysis Breakdown
Dogecoin’s current technical setup presents a mixed but potentially constructive picture. Trading at $0.09, DOGE sits near the lower Bollinger Band at $0.08, with a Bollinger Band position of 0.24 indicating the price is in the lower quartile of its recent range.
The RSI reading of 33.76 places Dogecoin in neutral territory, suggesting the recent selling pressure may be exhausting without reaching oversold conditions. This could indicate limited downside risk from current levels.
The MACD histogram reading of 0.0000 shows bearish momentum has stalled, while the MACD line at -0.0097 remains negative but appears to be stabilizing. The Stochastic indicators (%K at 36.23, %D at 28.98) suggest potential for a short-term bounce.
Moving averages paint a bearish longer-term picture, with DOGE trading below all major SMAs: SMA 7 ($0.10), SMA 20 ($0.11), SMA 50 ($0.12), and SMA 200 ($0.18). However, the proximity to the SMA 7 suggests a quick recovery above $0.10 could shift near-term sentiment.
Dogecoin Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
In a bullish scenario, DOGE price prediction suggests a move toward $0.10 represents the immediate resistance level that could trigger additional buying interest. A break above this level would target the SMA 7 and potentially extend toward $0.105-$0.11 range, aligning with the SMA 20 and middle Bollinger Band.
Technical confirmation for this Dogecoin forecast would require RSI moving above 40 and MACD histogram turning positive. Volume expansion above current $60 million daily levels would support upward momentum.
Bearish Scenario
The bearish case sees DOGE testing the strong support at $0.09, with a break below potentially targeting the lower Bollinger Band around $0.08. Given the significant gap to longer-term moving averages, any broader crypto market weakness could pressure Dogecoin toward $0.07-$0.08 range.
Risk factors include the wide spread between current price and major SMAs, ongoing bearish MACD readings, and potential for crypto market correlation during volatile periods.
Should You Buy DOGE? Entry Strategy
For those considering DOGE positions, current levels near $0.09 offer a reasonable risk-reward setup. Entry points could be staged:
Primary entry zone: $0.089-$0.091 (current support area)
Secondary entry: $0.085-$0.088 (if lower Bollinger Band is tested)
Stop-loss placement below $0.08 would limit downside risk to approximately 11-12% from current levels. Target profit-taking could begin near $0.10 resistance, with extended targets at $0.105 if momentum builds.
Risk management suggests position sizing should account for crypto volatility, with the daily ATR of $0.01 indicating normal daily moves of roughly 11% at current price levels.
Conclusion
This DOGE price prediction suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for the next 2-4 weeks. While longer-term technical damage is evident from the position below major moving averages, near-term indicators suggest downside risk may be limited around $0.09 support.
The Dogecoin forecast points to $0.10 as a critical level that could determine short-term direction. A sustained move above this resistance would improve the technical picture and potentially target $0.105-$0.11. However, failure to hold $0.09 support could extend weakness toward $0.08.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are speculative and involve significant risk. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
Bitcoin market observers believe that the recent price slump may actually reflect the asset’s wider adoption by institutions, which still don’t see it as a risk-off asset.
It’s been rough out there for crypto in recent months. Since October, when Bitcoin’s price reached a high of over $120,000, BTC has been gradually sliding. In recent weeks, it dropped sharply, down over 25% on the month.
Amid the sell-off, market observers have been looking for explanations. Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan attributed the fall to the notorious four-year cycles that have previously defined crypto market price swings.
Others, including one US Federal Reserve governor, claim that the recent price movements show that institutions are risk-averse and that Bitcoin itself hasn’t reached the status of digital gold — yet.
Bitcoin is down over 25% on the month. Source: CoinMarketCap
Bitcoin still seen as risky, “not digital gold”
Institutional interest in Bitcoin and crypto could be one reason for the recent sell-off. While major financial institutions have lots of money to pour into the crypto market, their appetite for risk is much lower than retail investors, and Bitcoin is still broadly seen as a risky asset.
Chris Waller, a governor of the United States Federal Reserve, spoke to this effect at a recent monetary policy conference on Monday. He said that much of the “euphoria” around crypto that accompanied the new administration of President Donald Trump is now fading.
“I think there was a lot of sell-off just because firms that got into it from mainstream finance had to adjust their risk positions.”
These sentiments were echoed by Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz on Tuesday, who said in an interview with CNBC that the crypto industry has brought in “institutions where people have a different risk tolerance.”
“Retail people don’t get into crypto because they want to make 11% annualized … They get in because they want to make 30 to one, eight to one, 10 to one.”
Crypto asset manager Grayscale noted in a report that recent Bitcoin price action more closely correlates to software stocks with high enterprise values than to historically stable assets like gold. The investment company stated that short-term price movements have not been tightly correlated with gold or other precious metals.
Bloomberg commodity strategist Mike McGlone, also a noted Bitcoin bear, claimed that Bitcoin is still highly speculative. “[Bitcoin] has proven it’s neither digital gold nor leveraged beta,” he said, adding, “It’s a highly speculative [number]-on-the-screen tracking nothing with unlimited competition.”
Grayscale remained more optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. “The network will likely continue operating well beyond our lifetimes and the asset may retain its value in real terms … in a wide range of outcomes for the economy and society,” it said.
The company also highlighted the central role institutions will have in the future success of the asset, which it noted was dependent on regulatory clarity, something the US hasn’t yet achieved.
Lack of progress on CLARITY signals risk
The CLARITY Act, which is currently under debate in the US Senate, would overhaul how crypto is regulated in the country, from the agencies that oversee rules for decentralized finance (DeFi).
The bill has stalled for weeks as crypto bigwigs like Coinbase and the bank lobby are at loggerheads over stablecoin interest: a core aspect of the exchange’s business model that banks feel could threaten financial stability.
Failure for Congress to deliver quickly on a crypto market structure bill has added to this insecurity, according to Waller. “The lack of passing of the CLARITY Act I think has kind of put people off on this,” he said.
Novogratz also emphasized the effect the bill could have on markets. He said that both Democrats and Republicans want to pass the bill and that “we need it for spirit back in the crypto market.”
Grayscale underscored the importance of CLARITY and the GENIUS Act in its report, the latter of which passed in July 2025. It stated that “improving regulatory clarity for the crypto industry is a structural trend much bigger than one piece of legislation.”
More favorable regulations will drive an increase in use cases in “stablecoins, tokenized assets, and other applications of public blockchain technology,” which in turn will “drive value to blockchain networks and their native tokens.”
High-level talks to clear the roadblocks on CLARITY are currently underway. On Tuesday, executives from the crypto and banking industries met at the White House for another closed-door meeting.
Ripple legal chief Stuart Alderoty said, “Compromise is in the air. Clear, bipartisan momentum remains behind sensible crypto market structure legislation.”
Meanwhile, analysts debate just how low the Bitcoin bear market can go. Kaiko Research shared a research note with Cointelegraph, which claimed that the $60,000 mark could be a “halfway point.”
“Analysis of on-chain metrics and comparative performance across tokens reveals a market approaching critical technical support levels that will determine whether the four-year cycle framework remains intact,” Kaiko said.
McGlone said that $60,000 is just a “speedbump on the way back down” to $10,000, citing a number of reasons. These include interest in crypto supposedly shifting from digital assets to stablecoins and the likelihood that “cheer-leader and chief, President Trump, will be a lame duck this time next year.”
A lame-duck president who is also pro-crypto may find it difficult to effect the change they want in Congress. It remains to be seen whether crypto will secure the regulatory clarity it wants for institutions to fully jump in.
Cointelegraph Features and Cointelegraph Magazine publish long-form journalism, analysis and narrative reporting produced by Cointelegraph’s in-house editorial team and selected external contributors with subject-matter expertise. All articles are edited and reviewed by Cointelegraph editors in line with our editorial standards. Contributions from external writers are commissioned for their experience, research or perspective and do not reflect the views of Cointelegraph as a company unless explicitly stated. Content published in Features and Magazine does not constitute financial, legal or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals where appropriate. Cointelegraph maintains full editorial independence. The selection, commissioning and publication of Features and Magazine content are not influenced by advertisers, partners or commercial relationships.
The United States National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) has proposed its first rules under the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, sketching out how subsidiaries of federally insured credit unions could apply to become federally supervised payment stablecoin issuers.
The NCUA, which oversees more than 4,000 federally insured credit unions serving roughly 144 million members and about $2.38 trillion in assets as of mid-2025, is using this proposal to set out the process and standards for licensing such issuers.
Under the proposal, any payment stablecoin issuer that is a “subsidiary of an insured credit union” would need to obtain an NCUA permitted payment stablecoin issuer (PPSI) license before issuing coins.
Federally insured credit unions would also be prohibited from investing in, or lending to, payment stablecoin issuers unless those issuers hold an NCUA PPSI license.
The draft is narrowly focused on licensing and investment limits. A forthcoming proposal will implement GENIUS Act standards and restrictions for PPSIs, including requirements related to reserves, capital, liquidity, illicit finance, and information technology risk management.
NCUA proposed rule for licensing of PPSIs. Source: NCUA
For now, the rulemaking is about defining the licensing and oversight architecture, and any eventual rollout of stablecoin services to members would depend on future approvals and additional standards.
“A forthcoming proposal will propose regulations to implement the standards and restrictions imposed by the GENIUS Act on PPSIs,” the preamble states.
Two features stand out for the broader crypto market. First, the NCUA would be barred from denying a substantially complete application solely because a stablecoin is issued “on an open, public, or decentralized network,” language that explicitly prevents public blockchain issuance from being rejected on that basis alone.
Second, once an application is deemed “substantially complete,” the agency would have 120 days to approve or deny it, and if the NCUA fails to act within that window, the application would be “deemed approved” by default.
The proposal also implements a core GENIUS Act design choice. Insured depository institutions, including credit unions, cannot issue payment stablecoins directly and must instead use separately supervised subsidiaries that meet uniform federal standards.
For credit unions, that generally means routing activity through credit union service organizations and other qualifying entities that fall under NCUA’s jurisdiction as “subsidiaries of an insured credit union.”
The document is only a notice of proposed rulemaking. Stakeholders have 60 days from Federal Register publication to comment before the NCUA can finalize or revise the licensing regime.
Cointelegraph reached out to NCUA for additional comments, but had not received a response by publication.
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
The United Kingdom’s government has appointed HSBC’s tokenization platform to power a pilot issuance of digital government bonds, known as “gilts,” marking the latest step in its push to modernize sovereign debt markets using blockchain technology.
HM Treasury has appointed HSBC Orion to facilitate the Digital Gilt Instrument (DIGIT) pilot issuance, according to a Thursday announcement.
The Treasury published a DIGIT pilot update in July 2025, outlining plans to explore blockchain applications in UK sovereign debt issuance and to support the development of domestic tokenization infrastructure.
“We want to attract investment and make the UK the best place to do business,” said Lucy Rigby, UK Economic Secretary to the Treasury, commenting on HSBC Orion’s DIGIT appointment. She added that the pilot will help the UK explore how to capitalize on distributed ledger technology (DLT), enhance efficiency and reduce costs for businesses.
Key objectives and features of the DIGIT pilot
The DIGIT pilot aims to enable digitally native, short-dated government bonds operating within the Digital Securities Sandbox (DSS).
The pilot is designed to support secondary market development and broader accessibility, with onchain settlement, while operating independently of the UK government’s main debt management program.
“This is exactly the kind of financial innovation we need to keep the UK at the forefront of global capital markets and I’m looking forward to working with HSBC and other parties to deliver DIGIT,” Rigby said.
HSBC has issued $3.5 billion in digital bonds globally
Since its launch in 2023, HSBC Orion has enabled the issuance of at least $3.5 billion in digitally native bonds globally, including the European Investment Bank’s first digital sterling bond and a multi-currency $1.3 billion-equivalent bond issued by the Hong Kong government.
“The UK is a home market for us and the sixth largest economy in the world,” said Patrick George, HSBC’s global head of markets and securities services. “HSBC is delighted to be supporting the continued development of the gilt market, market innovation, and the growth of the broader UK economy,” he added.
HSBC Orion-facilitated digital bond issuance projects. Source: HSBC
Alongside appointing HSBC Orion as the platform provider for DIGIT, the UK government also appointed global law firm Ashurst to provide legal services for the pilot.
“Our team brings deep expertise in digital assets transactions, and we look forward to working with HSBC and supporting the government as it takes this transformative step for UK capital markets,” Ashurst’s head of digital assets, Etay Katz, said.
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Gen Z Americans may be open to paying for dates with cryptocurrency, but most still aren’t putting digital coins where their hearts are, according to a January Pollfish survey commissioned by crypto exchange OKX.
The poll of 1,000 US adults found that 13% of Gen Z respondents said they have paid for a date using crypto, while many who haven’t said the main issue is practical: they don’t have a direct way to pay with crypto.
Interest extended beyond payments. 31% of Gen Z respondents said receiving crypto as a Valentine’s Day gift would be appealing, and 76% said financial literacy is an attractive trait in a partner, a reminder that for some daters, “knowing your numbers” can be more charming than knowing your zodiac sign.
Still, ownership appears to be a limiting factor. OKX told Cointelegraph that 29.5% of respondents said they currently own or previously owned crypto assets, suggesting that curiosity about crypto doesn’t automatically translate into daily use.
Gen Z flirts with crypto, but ease of use a problem
The gap between “open to it” and “actually did it” points to a familiar hurdle for crypto: in many everyday settings, it’s still easier to tap a card than to pay directly with a wallet.
Results of OKX’s Valentine’s Survey. Source: OKX
The survey also found that two-thirds of respondents said financial literacy plays well in the dating marketplace, with Gen Z (76%) and Millennials (75%) showing the strongest support.
Familiarity with digital finance tools also carried weight. Between 52% and 55% of respondents said knowledge of digital assets, such as cryptocurrencies and digital wallets, can make someone more attractive as a potential partner.
But only 17% of respondents overall said holding digital assets makes someone more attractive, including 30% of millennials and 28% of Gen Z. The findings indicate that for younger cohorts, digital asset awareness is increasingly viewed as part of broader financial competence.
Crypto has also shown up in dating headlines for less romantic reasons. In 2024, the US Federal Trade Commission issued a consumer alert over rising crypto-related romance scams. Canadian authorities issued similar warnings, as crypto scammers flooded dating apps.
The rise of artificial intelligence also heightened the risks of romance scams in crypto. In 2025, scammers have increasingly used chatbots and deepfakes to manipulate victims emotionally and financially.
Perception has also been mixed. While the OKX survey showed that some are attracted to crypto, a survey by the Date Psychology blog in 2024 found that women ranked crypto among the least attractive male hobbies.
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