Iran tensions continued to fuel market volatility, with US President Donald Trump delivering fresh ultimatums over the Strait of Hormuz blockade while keeping details sparse.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump demanded that Hormuz be “immediately ‘Open for Business’” while threatening renewed attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure.
Iran in turn suggested that markets discount news delivered prior to the open as a “reverse indicator.”
“We are in the most unusual times in market history,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter responded in analysis on X.
S&P 500 futures 30-minute chart. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X
Oil preserved the $100 mark into Monday, while US stocks struggled to make gains as the week began.
CFDs on WTI crude oil four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Commenting on BTC price action, trading company QCP Capital maintained the view that despite its losses, BTC/USD was still weathering the macro storm impressively.
“BTC has outperformed both gold and major equities since the Iran conflict began, even as traditional markets have struggled under geopolitical pressure,” it wrote in its latest “Market Color” update.
QCP said it was “notable” that the $65,000-$70,000 range was holding.
BTC price perspectives brighten
Continuing the more positive tone, crypto trader Michaël Van de Poppe called the lower end of Bitcoin’s local range an “entry zone.”
“Great bounce upwards, but nothing confirmed as of yet on Bitcoin. All depends on macroeconomic events; however, I’d rather see a breakout above $71K for confirmation,” he told X followers about the rebound from the March lows.
“On the other hand, a classic little sweep to $65K just before the push upwards would signal that we’re going to get that momentum. Clearly, the lower end of the range is the entry zone. Also, clearly, over a longer timeframe, this is a very cheap opportunity to accumulate more Bitcoin.”
BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Michaël Van de Poppe/X
Cointelegraph continues to report on trader consensus over a fresh leg down for BTC/USD as its bear flag breaks down for the second time in 2026.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, including forward-looking statements, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content.
A majority of crypto users remain unclear on basic tax rules, with fewer than half correctly identifying when transactions become taxable, a new survey found.
Only 49% of respondents correctly understand that crypto becomes taxable when it is sold, while nearly a quarter believe simple transfers can trigger tax events, according to a 2026 Crypto Tax Readiness Report published by Coinbase and CoinTracker.
The findings come from a survey of 3,000 US crypto users conducted between Sept. 9 and Oct. 3, ahead of the 2025 tax reporting season.
When is crypto taxable. Source: Coinbase
The survey noted that crypto investors show a clear willingness to comply with tax rules, with 74% saying they are aware that crypto is taxable, while 65% said they have already reported activity in the past. “This refutes the misconception of widespread crypto tax avoidance,” the survey states.
The survey also pointed to some key challenges complicating crypto tax reporting. For one, crypto investors often hold assets across multiple platforms, with an average of 2.5 wallets or exchanges and 83% using self-custody. This fragmentation makes it harder to track cost basis, which is needed to calculate gains and losses.
New reporting rules add to the challenge. From the 2025 tax year, brokers will issue Form 1099-DA but won’t include cost basis, leaving users to reconcile transactions themselves across platforms that don’t share data.
56% of crypto users say their knowledge of crypto tax reporting is good. Source: Coinbase
Despite these challenges, most users rely on traditional tools. Around 78% use general tax software and 52% turn to accountants, while only 8% use crypto-specific tax services. At the same time, interest in AI is growing, with nearly half of respondents saying they would use it to calculate taxes and 30% open to relying on it for the entire process.
Earlier this month, the IRS proposed new rules that would require crypto exchanges to deliver tax forms electronically, removing the option for paper copies. Under the proposal, brokers could end relationships with users who refuse digital delivery, and users would no longer be able to withdraw consent once given.
Exchanges must continue issuing Form 1099-DA to report transaction proceeds, though cost basis tracking will remain the responsibility of investors.
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
Hong Kong’s 2026-27 budget marks a shift from experimental digital bond projects to the direct integration of tokenized issuance and settlement into the city’s regulated financial market infrastructure.
CMU OmniClear, a subsidiary of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, will build a digital asset platform to support tokenized bond issuance and settlement. This embeds digital securities within Hong Kong’s established clearing and post-trade framework.
Hong Kong has issued multiple tokenized government bonds, including a HK$10 billion digital bond in 2025. Authorities plan to make such offerings a regular feature to deepen market participation and improve liquidity.
Hong Kong is introducing stablecoin licensing, digital asset dealer and custodian regulations and compliance rules aligned with global tax transparency standards to support a fully regulated digital asset market.
For years, tokenized bonds were discussed as a future upgrade to capital markets. In Hong Kong, that transition is now moving into practice.
The city’s 2026-27 budget marks a pivotal turning point. Tokenization is no longer confined to isolated experiments but is being integrated into the heart of Hong Kong’s financial ecosystem. By embedding issuance and settlement directly into its post-trade systems, the city is moving beyond one-off digital deals to create a standardized, regulated environment.
This article explores how Hong Kong is integrating tokenized bonds into its financial infrastructure through a new digital platform developed by CMU OmniClear, a subsidiary of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), regular government issuances and supportive regulations. This development reflects a shift from experimental pilots to scalable, institutional-grade digital capital market systems.
Hong Kong’s advancing tokenized bond program
Hong Kong has already completed several rounds of tokenized government bond issuances. In Q4 2025, the government launched its third series, valued at HK$10 billion, approximately US$1.28 billion. Authorities have since confirmed that these tokenized bond offerings will continue on a regular basis.
The 2026-27 budget, however, marked a significant escalation.
Financial Secretary Paul Chan stated that CMU OmniClear Holdings, a wholly owned subsidiary of the HKMA, will develop a dedicated digital asset platform. The platform is designed to handle both the issuance and settlement of tokenized bonds.
Importantly, the system is being built with long-term expansion in mind. It will:
Be progressively extended to support a wider range of digital assets beyond government bonds
Establish interoperability with tokenization platforms in other regional jurisdictions
Become fully integrated into Hong Kong’s broader post-trade financial ecosystem
This final aspect, deep integration into core market infrastructure, is what elevates tokenization from experimental pilots to a foundational element of the financial system.
CMU OmniClear: From experiment to core infrastructure
CMU OmniClear is far from a standalone startup or proof-of-concept project. It operates as an integral part of Hong Kong’s established clearing and settlement framework. Regulators have entrusted tokenized bond settlement to an entity directly linked to the HKMA. They have integrated digital securities into the same system that already processes conventional financial instruments.
This strategic move reshapes the tokenization story in three key ways:
Standardization replaces experimentation: Rather than relying on custom-built, one-off digital bond structures, issuance and settlement can now follow uniform regulatory rules and proven operational protocols.
Clear regulatory oversight: With supervision anchored directly under the central banking authority, legal and compliance uncertainty is significantly reduced.
Built-in scalability: Core market infrastructure is designed to handle institutional-scale volumes, not just small-scale trials or limited pilots.
Tokenization is no longer an add-on or side project. It is becoming embedded in the core plumbing of Hong Kong’s financial system.
Did you know? The concept of tokenized bonds builds on the broader idea of tokenizing real-world assets (RWAs). Trillions of dollars’ worth of traditional financial assets, such as bonds, real estate and funds, could eventually move onto blockchain-based infrastructure.
Government issuance: Already scaling
Hong Kong’s tokenized bond program is already demonstrating meaningful scale. Rather than building infrastructure in anticipation of future demand, Hong Kong is responding to existing market interest.
The government’s third tokenized bond issuance, completed in late 2025, reached a record size of HK$10 billion, approximately US$1.28 billion to US$1.3 billion, marking the world’s largest digital bond offering to date. This followed earlier digital bond issuances that also attracted strong investor demand. Authorities have now pledged to make tokenized bond issuance a regular practice rather than relying on occasional pilots.
This steady approach delivers several key benefits:
Builds investor comfort and familiarity with tokenized products
Draws participation from conventional asset managers
Reinforces that tokenization has strong official policy support, moving it beyond experimental status
Consistent and predictable issuance is essential to developing deeper, more liquid markets.
Beyond bonds: Building a digital asset ecosystem
Hong Kong’s ambitions extend well beyond tokenized bonds. The 2026-27 budget outlines additional regulatory steps to foster a broader digital asset ecosystem.
Stablecoin licensing regime
The HKMA is moving toward issuing its inaugural set of licenses for fiat-referenced stablecoins, with the first approvals expected in early 2026.
Stablecoins are not inherently tied to bond settlement. However, the introduction of regulated digital fiat equivalents could enable compliant and efficient settlement mechanisms for tokenized securities and other digital assets.
Did you know? The first blockchain bond issued by a multilateral institution was launched by the World Bank in 2018. Called “Bond-i” (Blockchain Operated New Debt Instrument), it used distributed ledger technology to manage bond issuance and settlement.
Licensing for digital asset dealers and custodians
Hong Kong is advancing its regulatory framework by introducing dedicated licensing regimes for key digital asset service providers.
The government plans to table legislation in 2026 establishing licensing requirements for:
digital asset dealing platforms, including over-the-counter (OTC) brokers, block traders, and other intermediaries involved in buying, selling, or exchanging virtual assets
custodian service providers focused on safeguarding private keys, segregating client assets, and ensuring strong security and operational controls
These measures will bring a broader range of participants under formal supervision. Dealers will face standards comparable to those applied to conventional securities firms, while custodians will be subject to stringent requirements for asset protection and key management.
By covering issuance, trading, custody, and reporting activities, the regime creates a fully supervised ecosystem for tokenized bond markets and other digital securities, enhancing investor protection and market integrity.
Alignment with global tax transparency standards
To reinforce its commitment to international compliance, Hong Kong is amending the Inland Revenue Ordinance to adopt the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD) Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF).
The implementation will apply to reporting by crypto-asset service providers (CASPs), starting in 2027. Information exchanges would begin in 2028, enabling the automatic exchange of tax-related data on crypto transactions with partner jurisdictions.
The move underscores a clear policy stance. Hong Kong’s tokenized and digital asset markets are being designed to be fully interoperable, transparent, and aligned with global standards. These are essential prerequisites for attracting and retaining institutional capital on a sustainable basis.
Did you know? Traditional bond settlement often takes two business days (T+2) in many markets. Tokenized bonds could potentially enable near-instant settlement, reducing counterparty risk and freeing up capital more quickly.
The liquidity layer: Building deeper regulated crypto markets
In early 2026, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) issued new guidance enabling licensed virtual asset brokers to provide margin financing for digital assets. Initially, the framework focused on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) collateral, with safeguards for creditworthy clients. The SFC also published a high-level framework allowing licensed virtual asset trading platforms (VATPs) to offer leveraged perpetual contracts.
These developments significantly enhance market liquidity in a controlled manner while preserving strong investor protections and risk management standards. They form part of a multilayered strategy to:
Broaden the scope of regulated digital asset markets
Uphold institutional-grade guardrails and compliance
More seamlessly bridge digital and traditional finance
Tokenized bonds are not standalone experiments. They sit within a comprehensive, integrated digital financial architecture designed for scale and sustainability.
How tokenized bond infrastructure operates in practice
Tokenized bond infrastructure combines several interconnected layers built on blockchain or distributed ledger technology:
Issuance: The issuer originates the bond as a digital token directly on a permissioned or regulated ledger, embedding coupon terms, maturity and covenants into smart contracts or digital records.
Primary allocation: Subscriptions and allocations occur through regulated intermediaries, such as banks, brokers or platforms, ensuring Know Your Customer (KYC) and AML compliance and orderly distribution to qualified investors.
Settlement and custody: True delivery-versus-payment (DvP) is achieved through integrated systems managed by recognized market infrastructure providers, including central securities depositories or clearing houses adapted for tokenization. Custody is handled by licensed providers with segregated assets and secure key management.
Post-trade lifecycle: Ongoing events, such as coupon or interest payments, principal redemptions at maturity, and the handling of corporate actions, are automated through programmable logic. This reduces manual intervention, settlement risk and operational costs.
The critical distinction between early pilots and true infrastructure lies in repeatability, institutional integration, and scale. Mature infrastructure enables frequent, large-volume issuances while interfacing smoothly with existing clearing, settlement, custody and reporting systems. This creates the foundation for liquid, efficient secondary markets.
Why this matters for global markets
Hong Kong’s strategy reflects deliberate, long-term positioning in the changing financial sector.
By integrating tokenized bond issuance and settlement into infrastructure closely aligned with the central bank, and by fostering connectivity with regional platforms and counterparties, Hong Kong is working to:
Solidify its status as Asia’s leading regulated digital asset and tokenized securities hub
Channel meaningful cross-border institutional capital flows into and through the city
Offer institutional investors a compliant, scalable and well-regulated tokenization ecosystem
Hong Kong is competing on regulated reliability, predictable rule-making and institutional-grade infrastructure. These factors matter significantly to large asset managers, banks and sovereign wealth funds.
Prevailing risks and challenges
Implementing ambitious infrastructure does not automatically eliminate structural challenges. Several significant hurdles remain:
Achieving genuine interoperability across different tokenization platforms, protocols and ledgers
Securing legal and regulatory harmonization with other major jurisdictions to enable smooth cross-border issuance, trading and settlement
Keeping AML, KYC, sanctions and broader compliance frameworks aligned with the rapid pace of technological change
Avoiding liquidity fragmentation, where trading volumes are split inefficiently across siloed digital systems, undermining market depth
Building the digital financial rails is only the first phase. Sustained market adoption, active secondary trading, broad institutional participation and organic liquidity growth will determine whether Hong Kong’s vision translates into lasting global relevance.
Cointelegraph maintains full editorial independence. Guides are produced without influence from advertisers, partners or commercial relationships. Content published in Guides does not constitute financial, legal or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals where appropriate.
Update March 30, 1:20 p.m. UTC: This article has been updated to include a section on the wider tokenized commodities market.
Trilitech, a London-based development company focused on the Tezos ecosystem, launched Metals.io on Monday, a new platform for trading tokenized commodities including uranium and gold, according to an announcement shared with Cointelegraph.
The platform expands a commodities push that Trilitech and the broader Tezos ecosystem began with Uranium.io, a retail-facing uranium marketplace launched in December 2024 on Etherlink, Tezos’ Ethereum Virtual Machine-compatible layer 2.
At launch, Metals.io is set to offer xU3O8 tokenized uranium, tokenized gold and Noemon Tech’s RARE token. Uranium.io describes xU3O8 as a tokenized physical uranium product, while RareTech materials describe RARE as a basket of strategic metals.
According to the release, the launch responds to growing investor interest in strategic materials tied to industrial use and artificial intelligence-related infrastructure demand. That logic echoes the pitch behind Uranium.io’s 2024 debut, which Tezos framed around uranium’s role in powering nuclear energy and supporting rising electricity demand tied to AI.
Metals.io aims to reduce the investment barriers to uranium trading, which was previously reserved for institutional investors. The new platform is built on the same underlying technology as uranium.io, launched by Tezos in December 2024.
“One of the founding principles behind the launch of that platform was to level the playing field by making a previously inaccessible critical asset widely available to all investors,” Ben Elvidge, head of commercial applications at Trilitech, told Cointelegraph.
Elvidge said around 9,000 retail investors have acquired the tokenized uranium product since the platform’s launch.
In August 2025, Digital asset custody firm Hex Trust integrated Tezos’ Etherlink to offer institutional custody for tokenized uranium. In January of that year, Transak also partnered with the platform to let retail investors buy tokenized uranium via crypto or credit cards for as little as $10, a sharp decrease from the $4.2 million minimum over-the-counter market limit.
Crypto exchanges enter tokenized commodities
Investor demand for tokenized commodities is on the rise. Tokenized commodities surged to $7.7 billion in cumulative market capitalization on March 6, but retraced to $7 billion as of Monday, according to data from RWA.xyz.
Tokenized gold represented the majority of this value, with Tether Gold (XAUT) accounting for 38% of the market share at $2.5 billion and Paxos Gold (PAXG) accounting for 34% at $2.2 billion.
Julio Moreno, head of research at analytics platform CryptoQuant, attributed the rising tokenized commodities demand to tariff-related uncertainty, higher interest rates and stronger safe-haven demand in a report published on March 5, adding that “crypto exchanges are becoming global venues for TradFi derivatives.”
Tokenized commodities’ total market capitalization. Source: RWA.xyz
More crypto companies are launching tokenized products. On Wednesday, Vienna-based crypto broker Bitpanda launched Vision Chain, an Ethereum Layer-2 for European banks and fintech to issue tokenized assets under Europe’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) and Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID II).
On March 20, Coinbase launched stock perpetual futures for eligible non-US users, extending round-the-clock access to equities alongside crypto and prediction markets. Crypto exchanges Binance and Kraken have also launched tokenized perpetual futures trading for non-US traders.
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
While specific analyst predictions are limited in recent crypto Twitter activity, CoinCodex provided a concrete AAVE price prediction on March 23, 2026, stating that “AAVE is expected to reach a price of $132.86 by Mar 28, 2026.” This ambitious target represents a 35% upside from current levels.
According to on-chain data, Aave’s recent price action has been influenced by renewed attention on the V4 upgrade and its reinvestment module, which drove a 3% price swing on March 26. The protocol’s fundamental developments continue to attract institutional interest despite broader market uncertainty.
AAVE Technical Analysis Breakdown
The current AAVE price prediction relies heavily on key technical indicators that paint a mixed but increasingly optimistic picture. Trading at $98.12, AAVE sits below most moving averages but shows signs of potential reversal.
RSI Analysis: At 36.90, AAVE’s RSI remains in neutral territory, suggesting the token isn’t oversold despite recent weakness. This provides room for upward movement without immediate overbought concerns.
MACD Signals: The MACD histogram at 0.0000 indicates bearish momentum is weakening, though a definitive bullish crossover hasn’t materialized yet. The MACD line at -4.6353 matches the signal line, suggesting consolidation.
Bollinger Bands: AAVE’s position at 0.11 within the Bollinger Bands places it near the lower band support at $95.00, indicating potential oversold conditions. The middle band at $109.31 serves as the primary resistance target.
Key resistance levels show at $100.80 (immediate) and $103.48 (strong), while support holds at $94.09 with stronger backing at $90.06.
Aave Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
The optimistic Aave forecast sees AAVE breaking above $103.48 resistance, potentially targeting the 20-day SMA at $109.31. A sustained move above this level could open the path toward CoinCodex’s $132.86 target.
Technical confirmation would require:
– RSI climbing above 50
– MACD histogram turning positive
– Breaking above the Bollinger Band middle line
– Volume increase above the current $6.19M daily average
Bearish Scenario
The bearish AAVE price prediction scenario involves a break below $94.09 support, potentially targeting the $90.06 level. Further weakness could see AAVE testing the lower Bollinger Band at $95.00.
Risk factors include:
– Continued pressure from the 200-day SMA resistance at $179.34
– Broader crypto market weakness
– Delayed V4 upgrade implementation
– DeFi sector rotation
Should You Buy AAVE? Entry Strategy
Current technical levels suggest a cautious approach to AAVE positioning. Conservative traders should wait for a clear break above $103.48 before establishing long positions, targeting $110-$115.
Aggressive traders might consider accumulation near current levels with tight stops at $94.00. The daily ATR of $6.04 suggests setting stop-losses at least $6-8 below entry points to account for normal volatility.
Risk Management Strategy:
– Entry: $98-$100 range
– First target: $109.31 (20-day SMA)
– Second target: $123.62 (Upper Bollinger Band)
– Stop-loss: $93.00
Conclusion
This AAVE price prediction suggests cautious optimism despite current consolidation. While technical indicators remain mixed, the combination of V4 upgrade developments and oversold conditions near Bollinger Band support creates potential for a 10-15% bounce toward $110.
The medium-term Aave forecast aligns with CoinCodex’s $132 target, though achieving this level requires breaking multiple resistance zones. Traders should monitor the $103.48 breakout level closely, as a sustained move above this point could trigger momentum buying.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are speculative and based on technical analysis. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before trading.
Bitcoin (BTC) buyers made a tepid comeback on Monday, pushing BTC price to its intraday high of $67,860. Analysts said that Bitcoin remains in a bear market, with several metrics pointing to a potential bottom below $50,000.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin price turns $70,000 into resistance, clearing the path for a deeper correction.
Bitcoin’s short-term holder realized price bands moved lower, with a potential bottom around $46,000.
Historical retracement levels and a bear flag breakdown point to $39,000–$41,000 as the final low for BTC price this cycle.
Analyzing Bitcoin’s price action on lower time frames, Telegram trading resource Technical Crypto Analyst said losing the $68,000-$69,000 support “confirms short-term bearish momentum,” adding:
“Unless price quickly reclaims $69K–$70K, the path of least resistance remains downward toward the $65K demand zone.”
“Great bounce upwards, but nothing confirmed as of yet on Bitcoin,” MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said in a Monday post on X.
It “all depends on macroeconomic events; however, I’d rather see a breakout above $71K for confirmation,” he added.
“On the other hand, a classic little sweep to $65K just before the push upwards would signal that we’re going to get that momentum.”
BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: X/Michael van de Poppe
Analyst Kyle Chassé said that with the Fear and Greed index still in the “extreme fear zone” and the order books showing more shorts than longs, the market leans “towards more downside.”
Crypto fear and greed indeed. Source: X/Kyle Chassé
Where will the Bitcoin price bottom?
Bitcoin’s 46% drawdown from its $126,000 all-time high has seen the cost basis of short-term holders (STH) — the average price of entities who have held BTC for less than 155 days — drop from $113,500 to $83,200.
“This is a sign that the pricing for a potential bottom has also moved lower,” said CEO and founder at Alphractal Joao Wedson in an X post on Monday.
Similarly, the lower line of the STH realized pricing bands (blue line) has also moved “even lower, which could confirm that Bitcoin may form a bottom around $50K or slightly below,” Wedson added.
The chart below shows that Bitcoin bottomed out just below the lower band of the STH realized price during the 2022 bear market.
Analyst Willy Woo said that the bear market bottom for Bitcoin could be between its realized price, currently at $54,000, and the Cumulative Value-Days Destroyed (CVDD), now at $45,500.
“Old school onchain models suggest a BTC bottom between $46K-54K. ”
Bitcoin pricing models. Source: X/Willy Woo
The CVDD measures the cumulative value of “Coin Days Destroyed” (long-term holders selling) relative to the market’s age, creating a rising “floor” price during bear markets.
Crypto analyst Crypto Jelle said Bitcoin’s bear market lows have historically formed between the 0.618 and the 0.786 retracement levels, which are at $57,600 and $39,000, respectively.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, including forward-looking statements, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content.
Ether’s (ETH) grip on the cryptocurrency market’s number-two spot is weakening, not because it is getting any closer to overtaking Bitcoin (BTC), but because the stablecoin economy is booming.
Key takeaways:
Ethereum’s No. 2 ranking at risk in 2026
In the past five years, Ether has vastly underperformed its top competitors for the no. 2 spot, primarily Tether’s stablecoin USDT (USDT).
On a five-year rolling basis, ETH’s market capitalization grew by roughly 11.75% to around $240 billion.
ETH/USD five-year market cap performance vs. USDT, XRP, and USDC. Source: TradingView
In comparison, USDT, the third-largest cryptocurrency, grew 622.50% in the same period, with its market cap reaching over $184 billion. Even XRP (XRP) and USD Coin (USDC) have outperformed Ether’s growth.
As a result, more traders are betting on Ethereum’s flippening in 2026.
On Polymarket’s betting platform, for instance, over 59% of punters placed bets in favor of Ether losing the number-two spot in 2026. These odds were just 17% at the year’s beginning.
Ethereum flipped in 2026 contract. Source: Polymarket
Why has Ethereum lagged behind Tether?
Ethereum and Tether grow differently because one is crypto, the other is fiat.
Ethereum’s market value depends largely on ETH’s price rising, and that has been difficult to sustain in 2026 as crypto markets come under pressure from macro headwinds such as US tariffs, the US and Israel vs. Iran war, and fading expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
That weakness has also been reflected in institutional demand. US spot Ethereum ETFs saw assets under management fall by about 65%, dropping to $11.76 billion in March from $31.86 billion in October last year, underscoring how the appetite for ETH has decreased over the past few months.
US spot Ethereum ETF balances. Source: Glassnode
Tether, by contrast, grows when capital flows into stablecoins and investors buy “crypto dollars.” That tends to happen when traders want safety, liquidity, or flexibility instead of exposure to volatile assets like ETH.
Demand for this kind of “dry powder,” capital parked in a dollar-pegged asset while investors wait for better crypto entry points, usually stays firm during risk-off periods.
Ethereum needs a stronger risk appetite to lift ETH’s price, while Tether benefits when investors turn defensive. That helps explain why ETH market cap growth has lagged behind USDT despite remaining one of crypto’s core infrastructure assets.
Can the ETH price fall further in 2026?
From a technical perspective, Ether faces risks of further price declines in 2026.
As of Sunday, it was trading inside what appears to be a “bear flag” pattern, which increases the odds of resolving to the downside, given the price breaks decisively below the structure’s lower trendline.
Onchain commodity trading is proving it’s more than a short-term spike, but limited liquidity continues to hold the market back from competing with traditional venues.
Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 market recorded a new all-time high on March 23, with roughly $5.4 billion in perpetual futures volume across commodities and macro assets. Silver led the activity at $1.3 billion, followed by WTI crude oil at $1.2 billion, Brent crude at $940 million and gold at $558 million. Equity indices, including the Nasdaq and S&P 500, also saw notable volumes.
Industry participants say the spike shows growing demand for macro exposure onchain. “Previously, onchain commodity futures were mostly a venue for crypto-native investors, that is no longer the whole story,” said Iggy Ioppe, chief investment officer at Theo. “The real tell is not just the volume, it’s when the volume shows up and who is showing up to trade.”
Ioppe noted that onchain oil futures markets are now processing more than $1 billion in daily volume over weekends, when traditional exchanges are offline. He said the shift is being driven in part by individual traders from traditional finance, who are accessing these markets through personal accounts. “Geopolitics does not stop on Friday afternoon, and markets are starting to adapt to that fact,” he said.
The ability to trade around the clock has emerged as a defining advantage for onchain venues. With a roughly 49-hour gap between the close of traditional markets on Friday and their reopening on Sunday, decentralized platforms have become one of the few places where traders can react to macro developments in real time.
That dynamic is starting to influence how prices are formed outside regular trading hours, even if the bulk of liquidity still sits in traditional markets. “For now, onchain is the price discovery layer when the rest of the market is asleep,” Ioppe said. “TradFi is still the depth layer when size matters most.”
On the CME, oil futures alone regularly see between 1 million and 4.5 million contracts traded daily, equivalent to roughly $100 billion to $300 billion in notional volume.
“Traditional venues still dominate when it comes to liquidity, execution quality, and institutional-scale pricing depth,” Sergej Kunz, co-founder of 1inch, said. He noted that deeper liquidity and tighter spreads remain the main barrier. Without them, onchain markets struggle to handle large trades without moving prices, limiting institutional participation.
Additional challenges include pricing reliability, market structure maturity and regulatory clarity, according to Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research.
Young said commodity tokenization shows “signs of real behavioral changes” but remains in an early phase, with gaps in liquidity and price aggregation still to be addressed.
Despite certain constraints, activity continues to build. “The broader direction is clear: traders are becoming more comfortable accessing macro-style exposure onchain,” Kunz said.
Gold and oil have led the current wave, but market participants expect similar patterns to emerge in other asset classes as volatility shifts.
Ioppe concluded that trading activity on onchain futures markets is likely to persist as trust builds around weekend pricing. As more traders begin to rely on these markets during off-hours, volume starts to follow. That, in turn, supports growing open interest, reinforcing confidence in the prices being formed. Over time, this creates a self-reinforcing cycle, where higher participation strengthens market credibility and draws in even more flow.
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
French multinational universal bank BNP Paribas is expanding its investment offering to include six crypto-linked exchange-traded notes (ETNs), giving retail clients in France access to Bitcoin and Ether exposure through regulated products.
The new ETNs, indexed to the price of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), will be available from Monday via standard securities accounts, according to the company. The products are open to individual investors, entrepreneurs, private banking clients and users of the bank’s digital platform, Hello bank!. The rollout may later extend to wealth management clients outside France.
Unlike direct crypto purchases, ETNs allow investors to track the performance of digital assets without holding them. ETNs have credit risk (if the bank fails, you lose money), no tracking error and tax advantages.
The move builds on the French bank’s broader digital asset efforts. In 2024, BNP Paribas arranged and placed Slovenia’s first digital sovereign bond, marking the European Union’s debut issuance of a blockchain-based government bond.
In September last year, BNP Paribas and HSBC joined the Canton Foundation, which governs the Canton Network, a blockchain focused on institutional finance and real-world asset tokenization.
Prior to this, BNP Paribas joined Goldman Sachs, Citadel and other major financial players in backing Digital Asset’s $135 million funding round. Digital Asset is the firm behind Canton.
Last month, BNP Paribas Asset Management also launched a tokenized share class of a money market fund on the Ethereum blockchain, expanding its push into fund tokenization using public infrastructure. The move builds on an earlier private blockchain issuance in Luxembourg.
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AAVE shows oversold signals at $98.34 with RSI at 35. Technical analysis suggests potential recovery to $102-105 range within 4-6 weeks if key support at $96.20 holds firm.
While specific analyst predictions are limited for the current period, on-chain metrics suggest Aave is approaching oversold territory. According to technical data from major exchanges, AAVE’s current positioning near the lower Bollinger Band indicates potential for a short-term bounce.
Market sentiment data shows mixed signals, with the token experiencing increased volatility as evidenced by the daily ATR of $6.57. This elevated volatility often precedes significant price movements in either direction for decentralized finance tokens like AAVE.
AAVE Technical Analysis Breakdown
The current AAVE price prediction relies heavily on key technical indicators showing oversold conditions. At $98.34, AAVE sits just above its immediate support at $96.20, with the RSI at 35.06 indicating neutral to slightly oversold territory.
The MACD histogram at 0.0000 suggests bearish momentum is potentially exhausting, while the token trades significantly below all major moving averages. The SMA 7 at $106.26 represents the first major resistance level, followed by the SMA 20 at $110.63.
Aave’s position at -0.0396 on the Bollinger Bands scale places it very close to the lower band at $99.24, historically a level where buyers tend to step in. The 24-hour trading range of $96.39-$100.85 has established clear short-term boundaries for price action.
Aave Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
The optimistic Aave forecast targets a recovery to $102-105 within the next week, representing a 4-7% upside from current levels. A break above the immediate resistance at $100.66 would likely trigger momentum toward the SMA 7 at $106.26.
For this bullish AAVE price prediction to materialize, the token needs to maintain support above $96.20 and show RSI improvement above 40. Volume confirmation above the recent average of $8.34 million would strengthen the upward case.
Bearish Scenario
The bearish case sees AAVE testing the strong support at $94.07 if the current support at $96.20 fails to hold. This would represent a 4-5% decline from current levels and could trigger further selling pressure.
Risk factors include the significant gap between current price and the SMA 200 at $181.43, indicating a strong bearish trend on longer timeframes. Additionally, all shorter-term moving averages remain well above current price levels.
Should You Buy AAVE? Entry Strategy
Based on this AAVE price prediction analysis, conservative entry points emerge around $96.50-$97.00 for those seeking to position for the anticipated bounce. More aggressive traders might consider entries on any break above $100.66 with volume confirmation.
Stop-loss levels should be placed below $94.00 to limit downside risk, representing approximately 4-5% from suggested entry points. Risk management becomes crucial given AAVE’s elevated volatility metrics.
For longer-term positions, dollar-cost averaging between $95-$100 could provide favorable entry conditions, though traders should remain aware of the broader bearish trend indicated by the moving average structure.
Conclusion
This AAVE price prediction suggests a moderate recovery potential to $102-105 within the coming weeks, supported by oversold technical conditions and proximity to the lower Bollinger Band. However, the forecast remains cautiously optimistic given the bearish momentum indicators and resistance from multiple moving averages.
The Aave forecast carries medium confidence due to mixed technical signals – while oversold conditions support a bounce, the broader trend structure remains challenging. Traders should monitor volume patterns and the critical $96.20 support level for confirmation of this prediction.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are speculative and should not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before investing.
