Crypto entered 2026 with a familiar dichotomy: The industry is maturing, but its decentralized identity is at risk. Still, following years heavily dominated by speculation, 2025 became the year that pushed builders and investors toward fundamentals and proved that blockchain can support real-world goods, services and infrastructure.
In this week’s episode of Byte-Sized Insight, Cointelegraph explores what that shift looked like on the ground, particularly through the lens of the emerging “machine economy.”
DePIN brings “real-world” crypto closer
Leonard Dorlöchter, co-founder of peaq, argues that 2025 was a turning point in how projects were evaluated.
“Fundamentals started mattering more and more,” he said,
He added that “protocol revenue looked front and center” after an earlier period of memecoin-driven speculation. The push toward fundamentals has been driven partly by DePIN, decentralized physical infrastructure networks, where projects aim to build services that generate measurable revenue.
Dorlöchter said, “We’ve been seeing early revenue, real revenue happening within DePIN,” and added that some networks are already proving “you can build a decentralized network of IoT devices… and channel those back to tokens.”
For builders, the implication is clear: Revenue matters, but so does the type of value being created, especially as the industry pushes toward broader adoption.
The machine economy and onchain coordination
Dorlöchter described the machine economy as “any device, robot or agent autonomously transacting with each other or with humans as well.” He said the past year brought meaningful progress in standardization, including the release of protocols that help agents discover services and interact across systems.
“A lot of the foundational work in terms of standardization has been happening last year,” he said, adding that “it really goes into production right now.” And for Dorlöchter, the stakes go beyond convenience:
“Blockchain technology is the enabling technology that allows us as a global society, to build neutral infrastructure.”
Still, he also emphasized that decentralization must remain foundational even as regulation and mainstream adoption accelerate.
Looking ahead, he expects a rise in autonomous agents transacting onchain:
“Agents will be making money independently… and they will also buy resources independently in order to keep running.”
To hear the complete conversation on Byte-Sized Insight, listen to the full episode on Cointelegraph’s Podcasts page, Apple Podcasts or Spotify. And remember to check out Cointelegraph’s full lineup of other shows!
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
Investment bank Jefferies’ longtime “Greed & Fear” strategist Christopher Wood has reportedly eliminated Bitcoin from his flagship model portfolio, citing mounting concerns that advances in quantum computing may undermine the cryptocurrency’s long-term security.
According to a report by Bloomberg, Wood said in the latest edition of his Greed & Fear newsletter, that the 10% Bitcoin (BTC) allocation he first added in late 2020 has been replaced by a split position in physical gold and gold mining stocks.
He argued that quantum breakthroughs would weaken Bitcoin’s claim to be a dependable store of value for pension‑style investors.
Wood added that concern over quantum risk is rising among long-term, institutional investors, warning that some capital allocators now question Bitcoin’s store of value case if quantum timelines compress.
He said he feared that “cryptographically relevant” machines arriving sooner than expected could let attackers derive private keys from exposed public keys, weakening the cryptography underpinning Bitcoin balances and mining rewards and, in the extreme, challenging its role as “digital gold” for pension‑style portfolios.
Quantum risk enters mainstream portfolios
The quantum issue has been discussed for years among developers and commentators, but Wood’s move shows how it’s now influencing mainstream asset allocation decisions at major brokerage and research houses.
Castle Island Ventures partner and Bitcoin advocate Nic Carter has discussed the quantum issue at length, warning in December that “capital is concerned and looking for a solution” on quantum risk, even though many developers, including Blockstream CEO Adam Back, remain skeptical that it is a near‑term problem.
Investors are concerned about quantum computing. Source: Nic Carter
Macro analyst Luke Gromen has also turned cautious on Bitcoin in recent months, citing macro and technological uncertainties, including quantum computing risk, as reasons to favor increasing gold exposure versus BTC on a multi‑cycle view.
Studies from firms such as EY and PwC similarly flag quantum computing as a significant emerging threat to traditional public key cryptography, warning that financial systems, including those supporting digital assets, need to prepare migration paths to quantum-resistant alternatives.
Bitcoin developers and core infrastructure builders push back on the idea that quantum progress is an immediate threat.
Blockstream CEO Adam Back has repeatedly argued that breaking Bitcoin’s current signature schemes is likely 20–40 years away and that the network would have ample time to migrate to post‑quantum signature algorithms and better key management practices well before any real‑world break becomes feasible.
Other analysts, including an a16z researcher, similarly conclude that the probability of a “cryptographically relevant” quantum computer capable of breaking today’s public key systems emerging this decade is low.
They say that the bigger near‑term risks come from implementation bugs, governance, and “harvest now, decrypt later” attacks on encrypted data rather than immediate attacks on live blockchain signatures.
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
Glassnode expands from 10 to 40 options metrics, adding Deribit, OKX, Bybit data plus new gamma exposure and premium flow tools for BTC, ETH, SOL trading.
Glassnode has transformed from an on-chain analytics provider into a full-stack derivatives platform, quadrupling its options metrics from 10 to 40 dedicated tools. The expansion, completed in Q4 2025, now covers BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and PAXG across Deribit, OKX, and Bybit exchanges.
The timing matters. With Bitcoin hovering around $95,000 as of January 16, 2026, and institutional capital increasingly flowing through derivatives rather than spot markets, options have become primary drivers of price dynamics. Glassnode’s bet is that traders need to see both sides—who holds risk on-chain and how that risk gets priced in options.
Premium Flows Replace Volume as the Conviction Signal
The centerpiece of the new suite treats premium—actual dollars spent on options—as the definitive measure of conviction rather than contract volume or open interest. A pile of cheap out-of-the-money options might look significant by OI, but represents minimal capital at risk.
The platform now separates taker flows by intent: call buyers versus call sellers, put buyers versus put sellers. Since takers pay the spread for immediate execution, their activity signals urgency. Traders can now identify strike-level magnets where positioning builds, and distinguish between end-users aggressively buying crash protection versus quietly selling premium in anticipation of range-bound conditions.
Combo Strategy Reconstruction
Raw option-by-option flow often misleads. What appears as “one call bought, one call sold” might actually be a single taker executing a strangle—a pure volatility bet with no directional bias.
Glassnode now reconstructs multi-leg trades into canonical strategies: straddles, strangles, spreads, condors, and ladders. This tracks net premium for entire structures rather than isolated legs, revealing whether traders are paying for volatility, harvesting carry, or running structured hedges across maturities.
Gamma Exposure Maps Dealer Hedging Flows
The new Gamma Exposure (GEX) metrics address a structural reality: dealer hedging flows are large relative to crypto market depth. When market makers maintain delta-neutral positions, they must continuously hedge gamma exposure by trading futures or spot.
At price levels with high positive gamma, dealers absorb shocks—buying dips, selling rallies—creating “gamma gravity” that pins prices near strikes. At negative gamma levels, hedging amplifies moves in both directions. Monitoring where GEX flips sign helps anticipate regime shifts between quiet and volatile conditions.
Interpolated IV Grid Across Deltas and Tenors
The volatility surface tools now provide call and put implied volatility across multiple deltas (5D through 50D) and standard tenors (1-week through 6-month) for all covered assets. Previously, Glassnode only offered 25-delta skew without individual legs.
The standardized delta buckets reveal cross-asset divergences. If SOL 25D call IV rises while BTC stays flat, that divergence might signal rotation toward higher-beta assets. The term structure shows whether markets are pricing short-term stress versus longer-dated repricing.
A proprietary Glassnode Skew Index integrates the full volatility smile through UpVol and DownVol, rather than just comparing two points like traditional 25-delta skew. Positive values indicate the market paying more for upside tails; negative values show preference for downside protection.
What This Means for Traders
The practical applications are specific. Delta skew serves as a fear-and-greed barometer—positive skew means premium for upside calls, negative skew indicates a rush for put protection. Historical extremes in either direction often mark local tops or capitulation bottoms.
IV heatmaps display the full volatility surface in one view, making it easy to spot skew asymmetries and tail-risk pricing. Elevated IV at low-delta puts (−10D to −5D) without price follow-through often signals fear saturation and potential volatility compression.
Glassnode says the roadmap includes deeper market structure analytics and further integration between on-chain and derivatives data. For institutional teams with custom requirements, the company is offering direct consultation on implementation.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price traded 9.5% above its Jan. 1 open of $87,500, and traders were confident that BTC’s short-term “trend is up” as the price approached a key level of interest.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin price consolidates around $95,000 as bulls face a major barrier ahead.
Technical analysis shows an ascending triangle targeting $113,200 BTC price.
Bitcoin price is at an “inflection point”
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s ability to return to a six-figure price hinges on overcoming the resistance at $98,000 — the short-term holder (STH) cost basis.
This is the critical point on traders’ radar and one that has not received a convincing retest recently.
MN Capital Founder Michael van de Poppe said as long as the BTC/USD pair holds above the 21-day moving average at $91,200, “the trend is up,” and it will just be a matter of time until it breaks $100,000.
Analyst Mags spotted Bitcoin bouncing from a multi-year trendline in the weekly timeframe.
“Bitcoin is bouncing from the long-term trendline support it has been holding since March 2023,” Mags said in their latest analysis on X, adding:
“Each time the price has bounced from this support, we have witnessed a strong run-up.”
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Mags
Note that the last time Bitcoin bounced off this trendline in October 2023, it rallied 172% to its previous all-time high of $73,800, reached on March 14, 2024.
The BTC/USD pair is currently retesting the horizontal trendline of an ascending triangle, as shown on the daily chart below.
A major resistance zone sits between $96,000 (100-day EMA) and $99,500 (200-day EMA), which bulls must overcome to open the way for a run-up toward the measured target of the triangle at $113,200.
Bitcoin is consolidating in an “ascending triangle along with confirmed weekly hidden bullish divergence,” said analyst Matthew Hyland in a recent post on X, adding:
“Price goes up.”
The relative strength index has increased to 64 on Friday, from oversold conditions in mid-November.
This suggests Bitcoin is “trading strong but is pretty far from being overbought in the short term,” Daan Crypto Trades said, adding:
“There’s definitely a good amount of room to move higher for now. Just need the bulls to hold the lower timeframe bullish market structures.”
As Cointelegraph reported, a bullish divergence from the RSI and a MACD cross provided classic reversal signals as bulls eye $101,000 as the next major level to reclaim for a trend confirmation.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
AAVE shows bullish potential toward $190-195 range by February 2026, with current price at $173.76 offering entry opportunity despite neutral RSI and bearish MACD momentum.
While specific analyst predictions from crypto Twitter are limited in the past 24 hours, recent analysis from blockchain specialists suggests promising upward momentum for AAVE. According to Caroline Bishop’s January 10 analysis, “AAVE price prediction shows potential rally to $190-$195 range by February 2026, driven by oversold RSI recovery and analyst targets up to $213. Current $165 level offers entry opportunity.”
Joerg Hiller reinforced this optimistic outlook on January 11, noting that “recent analyst forecasts suggest AAVE could rally 18-25% from current levels, with technical indicators showing mixed signals as the token trades at $167.02.” Most recently, Rebeca Moen’s January 15 analysis highlighted that “AAVE price prediction shows bullish momentum toward $190-195 by February despite mixed signals. Technical analysis reveals key resistance at $184 with strong support holding.”
These analyst forecasts align with the consensus AAVE price prediction targeting the $190-195 range by February 2026, representing potential gains of 9-12% from current levels.
AAVE Technical Analysis Breakdown
Current technical indicators present a mixed but cautiously optimistic picture for the Aave forecast. Trading at $173.76, AAVE sits comfortably above its 20-period simple moving average of $164.24, indicating short-term bullish sentiment. The RSI reading of 53.99 places the token in neutral territory, suggesting neither oversold nor overbought conditions.
The MACD histogram at 0.0000 signals bearish momentum in the immediate term, though this neutral reading suggests consolidation rather than aggressive selling pressure. AAVE’s position within the Bollinger Bands shows strength, with a %B reading of 0.7456, indicating the price is trading in the upper portion of the band range.
Key resistance levels emerge at $178.47 (immediate) and $183.19 (strong), while critical support sits at $169.10 with stronger backing at $164.45. The daily ATR of $8.68 indicates moderate volatility, providing both opportunity and risk for traders.
Aave Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
In the bullish case for this AAVE price prediction, a break above the immediate resistance at $178.47 could trigger momentum toward the $183-184 range, which analysts have identified as the key breakout level. Sustained trading above $184 would validate the path toward the February targets of $190-195.
Technical confirmation would require the RSI moving above 60 and MACD histogram turning positive. Volume expansion above the current $13.19 million daily average would provide additional validation for upward movement.
Bearish Scenario
The bearish scenario sees AAVE testing support at $169.10, particularly if the MACD histogram deepens into negative territory. A break below this level could expose the strong support at $164.45, aligning with the 20-period SMA.
Risk factors include broader crypto market weakness and failure to maintain above the middle Bollinger Band at $164.24. The significant gap to the 200-period SMA at $244.29 also highlights the longer-term bearish context.
Should You Buy AAVE? Entry Strategy
For the current Aave forecast, the $169-173 range presents a reasonable entry zone, offering proximity to support levels with manageable risk. Conservative traders might wait for a pullback to the $169.10 support level before initiating positions.
Stop-loss placement below $164.45 would limit downside risk to approximately 5-6% from current levels. Profit-taking strategies could target the $183-184 resistance zone initially, with extended targets at the analyst-predicted $190-195 range for February.
Risk management remains crucial given the neutral-to-bearish short-term momentum signals. Position sizing should account for the moderate volatility indicated by the ATR reading.
Conclusion
This AAVE price prediction suggests cautious optimism for the token’s near-term prospects, with analyst targets of $190-195 by February 2026 appearing achievable based on current technical structure. The neutral RSI and proximity to key support levels provide a foundation for upward movement, though traders should monitor the MACD for momentum confirmation.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
The United Kingdom is considering new restrictions that could bar children under 16 from using mainstream social media platforms.
The discussion builds on the Online Safety Act, which already requires services with minimum age limits to explain how they enforce them and to use “highly effective” age assurance measures where children are at risk of harmful content.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he is monitoring how Australia’s under‑16 ban works in practice and is “open” to an Australian‑style approach, despite previously expressing personal reservations about a blanket ban for teenagers.
Conservative Party Member of Parliament David Davis said in a post on X that banning social media for children was “the right move,” and added that “mobile phones don’t belong in schools either.”
Conservative MP argues for banning social media for children. Source: David Davis
The debate comes as UK ministers and regulators are already in conflict with Elon Musk’s X platform over compliance with the Online Safety Act (OSA) and takedown obligations for illegal or harmful content.
Ofcom, the UK’s online safety regulator, is preparing enforcement powers that include large fines and potential access restrictions for services that fail to meet their child safety and illegal content duties.
Critics have warned that aggressive enforcement could have implications for freedom of expression, and Musk’s platform has said the OSA is at risk of “seriously infringing” on free speech.
Aleksandr Litreev, CEO of Sentinel, whose decentralized virtual private network (dVPN) provides censorship-resistant internet access, told Cointelegraph that the UK’s moves on digital freedoms were “concerning,” and echoed the “same failed route as China, Russia and Iran.”
He said that denying youth access to social media and the internet “stifles their ability to learn digital literacy and develop critical thinking,” leaving them “less prepared for adulthood in a connected world.”
Similar moves are underway in other countries. Australia’s eSafety commissioner registered an industry code requiring major search engines to implement age assurance technologies for logged‑in users, with the rules taking effect on Dec. 27, 2025.
Providers such as Google and Microsoft now have to verify users’ ages using methods ranging from government IDs and biometrics to credit card checks, and apply the highest default safety filters to accounts identified as likely under 18.
Ireland, meanwhile, plans to use its upcoming presidency of the Council of the European Union in the second half of 2026 to push for identity-verified social media accounts across the bloc.
In the UK, these developments coincided this week with a government decision to abandon plans for a single centralized digital ID system for right‑to‑work checks, which would have become mandatory in 2029.
Crypto exchanges and trading apps remain subject to existing Know Your Customer (KYC) and biometric verification rules, including checks that typically involve government ID uploads and live selfies or facial scans to verify users’ identities.
Policymakers’ focus on age and identity assurance in social media, search, and other consumer services suggests that similar verification technologies are increasingly being explored and deployed outside financial use cases.
Litreev commented, “If a government sells you something ‘for the sake of safety,’ it’s sure as hell not about safety in any way or form.”
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
ETF flows reveal real institutional demand beyond short-term price moves.
Bitcoin treasury stocks can turn BTC exposure into an equity risk shaped by index rules.
Low fees are reviving questions about how Bitcoin may pay for its long-term security.
Scaling now means choosing between Lightning, L2 designs and protocol upgrades.
Everyone’s watching Bitcoin’s (BTC) price, but in 2026, it’s often not the most informative signal.
That’s why it helps to understand what analysts look at when the chart isn’t explaining why the market is moving or where it may move next.
The focus shifts to factors that can quietly reshape Bitcoin’s demand, liquidity and long-term narrative: Who’s buying through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), how “Bitcoin treasury” stocks are treated by indexes, whether miners are earning enough to secure the network, what scaling actually looks like today and how regulation is shaping mainstream access.
Here are five Bitcoin narratives worth watching beyond price in 2026.
1. Reading institutional demand through ETFs
ETF flows may be one of the clearest institutional signals of demand because they reflect real allocation decisions by wealth platforms, registered investment advisors (RIAs) and discretionary desks, not just leverage bouncing around on crypto exchanges.
This idea comes straight from mainstream market reporting and flow data. Reuters framed Bitcoin’s mid-2025 breakout as being “fuelled by strong flows into Bitcoin ETFs” and said the rally looked “more stable and lasting” than earlier, speculation-heavy runs.
Reuters also quoted Aether Holdings’ Nicolas Lin on why this matters for the longer term: “It’s the start of crypto becoming a permanent fixture in diversified portfolios.”
The flip side is also worth noting. Bloomberg highlighted how quickly sentiment can turn when the ETF pipeline reverses, with investors “yanking nearly $1 billion” in a single session, one of the largest daily outflows on record for the group.
Did you know? In February 2021, the Canadian Purpose Investments Bitcoin ETF (BTCC) became the world’s first physically settled Bitcoin ETF, allowing investors to gain direct BTC exposure through a regulated stock exchange, nearly three years before US spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved.
2. BTC as equity products
A growing group of public companies is effectively saying this: Instead of buying Bitcoin directly, buy our stock, and we will hold the BTC on the balance sheet for you.
Naturally, Strategy has been the poster child since 2020. The 2026 narrative, however, is that these types of products are moving into the crosshairs of index providers.
Reuters describes these “digital asset treasury companies” (DATCOs) as companies that “began holding crypto tokens such as Bitcoin and ether as their main treasury assets,” giving investors “a proxy for direct exposure.” The problem is straightforward: If a company is mostly a pile of BTC in a corporate shell, is it an operating business or something closer to an investment vehicle?
That question became a real market risk in early January 2026, when MSCI backed off a plan that could have pushed some of these firms out of major indexes. MSCI said investors were concerned that some DATCOs “share characteristics with investment funds” and that separating true operating companies from “companies that hold non-operating assets… rather than for investment purposes requires further research.”
Barron’s noted that JPMorgan estimated potential selling pressure could have reached about $2.8 billion if MSCI had gone ahead and more if other index providers followed.
Reuters quoted Clear Street’s Owen Lau, who called MSCI’s delay the removal of a “material near-term technical risk” for these stocks that act as “proxies for Bitcoin/crypto exposure.”
Mike O’Rourke of JonesTrading was blunter. Exclusion may simply be “postponed until later in the year.”
If ETF flows are the clean spot-demand story, treasury stocks are the messier cousin. They can amplify Bitcoin through equity mechanics, index rules and balance-sheet optics, even when the BTC chart looks boring.
Did you know? Index providers are companies that decide what stocks qualify for inclusion in major stock market indexes and how those stocks are classified.
3. The security budget question is back
After the 2024 halving, it has become more apparent that Bitcoin’s long-term security story is increasingly linked to transaction fees.
Galaxy put it plainly, “Bitcoin fee pressure has collapsed.” It estimated that “as of August 2025, ~15% of daily blocks are ‘free blocks,’” with the mempool often being empty.
That’s great for users who want cheap transfers. For cryptocurrency miners, it reopens the big question: What pays for security as the subsidy keeps shrinking?
CoinShares made the same point from the mining side, saying transaction fees “have fallen to historic lows,” sitting at “less than 1% of total block rewards” during parts of 2025.
By early January 2026, JPMorgan-linked reporting flagged real stress. Monthly average hashrate fell 3% in December, while “daily block reward revenue” dropped 7% month-on-month and 32% year-on-year, reaching “the lowest on record.”
VanEck also described “a tough structural squeeze” for miners as subsidy cuts collide with rising competition.
With this in mind, analysts are increasingly watching the fee share of miner revenue, hash price and profitability, and whether onchain demand can return without relying on a hype cycle to push fees higher.
4. Lightning, Bitcoin L2s and upgrade politics
Analysts are now watching the full stack when it comes to scaling.
First, Lightning Network remains a primary payments-focused layer, and capacity is rising again. In mid-December 2025, Lightning capacity was reported at a new high of 5,637 BTC. More important than the headline number is who is adding liquidity. Amboss framed it this way: “It’s not just one company … it’s across the board.”
Second, the “Bitcoin L2 / BTCFi” push is receiving institutional research attention. Galaxy counts Bitcoin L2 projects rising “over sevenfold from 10 to 75” since 2021 and argues that meaningful BTC liquidity could move into layer-2 (L2) environments over time. It estimates that “over $47bn of BTC could be bridged into Bitcoin L2s by 2030.” Whether that happens remains the central debate.
Third, Bitcoin’s upgrade debate is back on the table as L2 builders push for better base-layer primitives. OP_CAT “was disabled in 2010” and is now “frequently proposed… using a soft fork.”
Galaxy’s view is that proposals such as OP_CAT and OP_CTV matter because they could support features like “trustless bridges” and “improvements to the Lightning Network.” Ecosystem commentary is now putting timelines on these ideas. Hiro says there is “a good chance” of a covenant-related soft fork “as early as 2026.”
In short, analysts are watching three things: Lightning capacity and liquidity trends, whether Bitcoin L2s attract real BTC rather than incentive-driven capital and whether the soft-fork conversation turns into an actual activation plan.
5. Regulation is deciding who gets access
In 2026, regulation will increasingly shape who gets access to Bitcoin, through which products and on what terms.
In the US, a change in tone is visible at the top. A federal executive order states, “It is the policy of the United States to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.”
It also says that government BTC in that reserve “shall not be sold.” This language frames Bitcoin as a strategic asset in policy terms.
Stablecoin rules are also key because they shape the infrastructure around crypto markets.
A legal breakdown of the GENIUS Act calls it “the first major crypto legislation” in the United States and noted that it creates licensing requirements for payment stablecoin issuers.
Meanwhile, large asset managers are already warning about second-order effects. Amundi’s chief investment officer said mass stablecoin uptake could turn them into “quasi-banks” and “potentially destabilise the global payment system.”
In the EU, Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) acts as a portcullis. Regulators said, “Only firms authorised … are allowed to provide crypto-asset services in the EU,” with a transition window in some countries running until July 1, 2026.
When it comes to regulation, it is important to watch authorization lists and deadlines in the EU, enforcement posture and whether “strategic reserve” language turns into durable policy in the US.
Did you know? One of the biggest crypto rules many are still waiting on in 2026 is a US market-structure law that would finally spell out who regulates what, ending years of overlap between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and setting clear rules for exchanges and brokers.
Where to look when the chart goes quiet
Bitcoin in 2026 appears less driven by hype cycles alone. Instead, attention is shifting to a few pipes and pressure points:
ETF flows show who is allocating and how sticky that demand might be.
Treasury-heavy public companies reveal how Bitcoin exposure is being repackaged for equity markets and how index rules can suddenly matter as much as onchain data.
The security budget debate reminds us that network health depends on incentives.
Scaling discussions have moved from abstract arguments to concrete trade-offs between Lightning, L2 designs and protocol upgrades.
Regulation now determines which doors are open and which stay shut for mainstream capital.
None of these forces moves in a straight line, and none shows up cleanly on a price chart. Taken together, they explain why Bitcoin can look quiet on the surface while something important is changing underneath. For analysts, that is where the data increasingly lives.
Cointelegraph maintains full editorial independence. The selection, commissioning and publication of Features and Magazine content are not influenced by advertisers, partners or commercial relationships.
ETF flows reveal real institutional demand beyond short-term price moves.
Bitcoin treasury stocks can turn BTC exposure into an equity risk shaped by index rules.
Low fees are reviving questions about how Bitcoin may pay for its long-term security.
Scaling now means choosing between Lightning, L2 designs and protocol upgrades.
Everyone’s watching Bitcoin’s (BTC) price, but in 2026, it’s often not the most informative signal.
That’s why it helps to understand what analysts look at when the chart isn’t explaining why the market is moving or where it may move next.
The focus shifts to factors that can quietly reshape Bitcoin’s demand, liquidity and long-term narrative: Who’s buying through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), how “Bitcoin treasury” stocks are treated by indexes, whether miners are earning enough to secure the network, what scaling actually looks like today and how regulation is shaping mainstream access.
Here are five Bitcoin narratives worth watching beyond price in 2026.
1. Reading institutional demand through ETFs
ETF flows may be one of the clearest institutional signals of demand because they reflect real allocation decisions by wealth platforms, registered investment advisors (RIAs) and discretionary desks, not just leverage bouncing around on crypto exchanges.
This idea comes straight from mainstream market reporting and flow data. Reuters framed Bitcoin’s mid-2025 breakout as being “fuelled by strong flows into Bitcoin ETFs” and said the rally looked “more stable and lasting” than earlier, speculation-heavy runs.
Reuters also quoted Aether Holdings’ Nicolas Lin on why this matters for the longer term: “It’s the start of crypto becoming a permanent fixture in diversified portfolios.”
The flip side is also worth noting. Bloomberg highlighted how quickly sentiment can turn when the ETF pipeline reverses, with investors “yanking nearly $1 billion” in a single session, one of the largest daily outflows on record for the group.
Did you know? In February 2021, the Canadian Purpose Investments Bitcoin ETF (BTCC) became the world’s first physically settled Bitcoin ETF, allowing investors to gain direct BTC exposure through a regulated stock exchange, nearly three years before US spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved.
2. BTC as equity products
A growing group of public companies is effectively saying this: Instead of buying Bitcoin directly, buy our stock, and we will hold the BTC on the balance sheet for you.
Naturally, Strategy has been the poster child since 2020. The 2026 narrative, however, is that these types of products are moving into the crosshairs of index providers.
Reuters describes these “digital asset treasury companies” (DATCOs) as companies that “began holding crypto tokens such as Bitcoin and ether as their main treasury assets,” giving investors “a proxy for direct exposure.” The problem is straightforward: If a company is mostly a pile of BTC in a corporate shell, is it an operating business or something closer to an investment vehicle?
That question became a real market risk in early January 2026, when MSCI backed off a plan that could have pushed some of these firms out of major indexes. MSCI said investors were concerned that some DATCOs “share characteristics with investment funds” and that separating true operating companies from “companies that hold non-operating assets… rather than for investment purposes requires further research.”
Barron’s noted that JPMorgan estimated potential selling pressure could have reached about $2.8 billion if MSCI had gone ahead and more if other index providers followed.
Reuters quoted Clear Street’s Owen Lau, who called MSCI’s delay the removal of a “material near-term technical risk” for these stocks that act as “proxies for Bitcoin/crypto exposure.”
Mike O’Rourke of JonesTrading was blunter. Exclusion may simply be “postponed until later in the year.”
If ETF flows are the clean spot-demand story, treasury stocks are the messier cousin. They can amplify Bitcoin through equity mechanics, index rules and balance-sheet optics, even when the BTC chart looks boring.
Did you know? Index providers are companies that decide what stocks qualify for inclusion in major stock market indexes and how those stocks are classified.
3. The security budget question is back
After the 2024 halving, it has become more apparent that Bitcoin’s long-term security story is increasingly linked to transaction fees.
Galaxy put it plainly, “Bitcoin fee pressure has collapsed.” It estimated that “as of August 2025, ~15% of daily blocks are ‘free blocks,’” with the mempool often being empty.
That’s great for users who want cheap transfers. For cryptocurrency miners, it reopens the big question: What pays for security as the subsidy keeps shrinking?
CoinShares made the same point from the mining side, saying transaction fees “have fallen to historic lows,” sitting at “less than 1% of total block rewards” during parts of 2025.
By early January 2026, JPMorgan-linked reporting flagged real stress. Monthly average hashrate fell 3% in December, while “daily block reward revenue” dropped 7% month-on-month and 32% year-on-year, reaching “the lowest on record.”
VanEck also described “a tough structural squeeze” for miners as subsidy cuts collide with rising competition.
With this in mind, analysts are increasingly watching the fee share of miner revenue, hash price and profitability, and whether onchain demand can return without relying on a hype cycle to push fees higher.
4. Lightning, Bitcoin L2s and upgrade politics
Analysts are now watching the full stack when it comes to scaling.
First, Lightning Network remains a primary payments-focused layer, and capacity is rising again. In mid-December 2025, Lightning capacity was reported at a new high of 5,637 BTC. More important than the headline number is who is adding liquidity. Amboss framed it this way: “It’s not just one company … it’s across the board.”
Second, the “Bitcoin L2 / BTCFi” push is receiving institutional research attention. Galaxy counts Bitcoin L2 projects rising “over sevenfold from 10 to 75” since 2021 and argues that meaningful BTC liquidity could move into layer-2 (L2) environments over time. It estimates that “over $47bn of BTC could be bridged into Bitcoin L2s by 2030.” Whether that happens remains the central debate.
Third, Bitcoin’s upgrade debate is back on the table as L2 builders push for better base-layer primitives. OP_CAT “was disabled in 2010” and is now “frequently proposed… using a soft fork.”
Galaxy’s view is that proposals such as OP_CAT and OP_CTV matter because they could support features like “trustless bridges” and “improvements to the Lightning Network.” Ecosystem commentary is now putting timelines on these ideas. Hiro says there is “a good chance” of a covenant-related soft fork “as early as 2026.”
In short, analysts are watching three things: Lightning capacity and liquidity trends, whether Bitcoin L2s attract real BTC rather than incentive-driven capital and whether the soft-fork conversation turns into an actual activation plan.
5. Regulation is deciding who gets access
In 2026, regulation will increasingly shape who gets access to Bitcoin, through which products and on what terms.
In the US, a change in tone is visible at the top. A federal executive order states, “It is the policy of the United States to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.”
It also says that government BTC in that reserve “shall not be sold.” This language frames Bitcoin as a strategic asset in policy terms.
Stablecoin rules are also key because they shape the infrastructure around crypto markets.
A legal breakdown of the GENIUS Act calls it “the first major crypto legislation” in the United States and noted that it creates licensing requirements for payment stablecoin issuers.
Meanwhile, large asset managers are already warning about second-order effects. Amundi’s chief investment officer said mass stablecoin uptake could turn them into “quasi-banks” and “potentially destabilise the global payment system.”
In the EU, Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) acts as a portcullis. Regulators said, “Only firms authorised … are allowed to provide crypto-asset services in the EU,” with a transition window in some countries running until July 1, 2026.
When it comes to regulation, it is important to watch authorization lists and deadlines in the EU, enforcement posture and whether “strategic reserve” language turns into durable policy in the US.
Did you know? One of the biggest crypto rules many are still waiting on in 2026 is a US market-structure law that would finally spell out who regulates what, ending years of overlap between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and setting clear rules for exchanges and brokers.
Where to look when the chart goes quiet
Bitcoin in 2026 appears less driven by hype cycles alone. Instead, attention is shifting to a few pipes and pressure points:
ETF flows show who is allocating and how sticky that demand might be.
Treasury-heavy public companies reveal how Bitcoin exposure is being repackaged for equity markets and how index rules can suddenly matter as much as onchain data.
The security budget debate reminds us that network health depends on incentives.
Scaling discussions have moved from abstract arguments to concrete trade-offs between Lightning, L2 designs and protocol upgrades.
Regulation now determines which doors are open and which stay shut for mainstream capital.
None of these forces moves in a straight line, and none shows up cleanly on a price chart. Taken together, they explain why Bitcoin can look quiet on the surface while something important is changing underneath. For analysts, that is where the data increasingly lives.
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Global bank messaging network SWIFT has tested Societe Generale’s euro-pegged stablecoin as part of a collaboration aimed at improving interoperability between traditional financial systems and blockchain-based assets.
Societe Generale’s digital asset subsidiary, SG-Forge, on Thursday announced it successfully completed the exchange and settlement of tokenized bonds in both fiat and digital currencies.
“This initiative showed that tokenized bonds can leverage existing payment infrastructures, enabling financial institutions and corporates to benefit from faster settlements and secure, compliant operational processes through the integration of ISO 20022 standards,” SG-Forge said.
“First MiCA-compliant stablecoin for SWIFT’s interoperability”
The joint project demonstrated the feasibility of key market operation use cases, including issuance, delivery-versus-payment settlement, coupon payments and redemption.
As part of the cooperation, SG-Forge provided its open-source standard, called Compliance Architecture for Security Tokens (CAST), including its security token and the EURCV stablecoin.
Notably, SG-Forge referred to its EURCV stablecoin as the first onchain settlement asset that is compliant with Europe’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework and is “natively compatible with Swift’s interoperability capabilities.”
SG-Forge’s post on LinkedIn on Thursday. Source: SG-Forge
“By proving that Swift can orchestrate multi-platform tokenized asset transactions, we’re paving the way for our customers to adopt digital assets with confidence, and at scale,” SWIFT’s tokenized assets product lead, Thomas Dugauquier, said in a joint announcement.
“It’s about creating a bridge between existing finance and emerging technologies,” he added.
SWIFT works with 30 banks on a shared blockchain-based ledger
SWIFT had announced plans to “add blockchain-based ledger to its infrastructure stack” in September 2025.
SG-Forge was one of at least 30 financial institutions worldwide that SWIFT named as partners for its ledger project, which focuses on real-time, 24/7 cross-border payments and began with a conceptual prototype developed by Ethereum software firm Consensys.
SWIFT’s post on LinkedIn in December 2025. Source: SWIFT
SWIFT’s forthcoming system is expected to apply blockchain technology to provide a “secure, real-time log of transactions” shared between financial institutions that will record sequence, validate transactions and enforce rules through smart contracts.
Cointelegraph reached out to SG-Forge and SWIFT for comment on the specific blockchain networks used in the recently completed project, but had not received a response by the time of publication.
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Bitcoin is showing considerable strength in the short term, opening the gates for a rally to $100,000 and then to $107,500.
Select major altcoins are showing strength, but Monero (XMR) is leading from the front.
After the sharp rally on Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are attempting to extend the gains above $97,000. The strong inflows of $753.8 million in BTC exchange-traded funds on Tuesday, according to Farside Investors data, show that the rally was backed by solid buying from institutional investors.
Crypto sentiment platform Santiment said in a post on X that retail traders may FOMO if BTC begins “teasing $100k in the next few days.”
Another bullish case was presented by crypto analyst Midas, who said in a post on X that BTC’s current structure is following the 2020-2021 cycle. If history repeats, BTC may reach $150,000.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView
However, not everyone is outright bullish on BTC. Global investment manager VanEck said in its Q1 2026 Outlook that BTC’s four-year cycle broke in 2025, which supports “a more cautious near-term outlook over the next 3-6 months.” Select analysts from the company differed in their view, “remaining more constructive on the immediate cycle,” the report said.
What are the target levels to watch out for in BTC and the major altcoins? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price prediction
BTC rallied above the $94,789 resistance on Tuesday, but the breakout is facing selling near the $96,846 level.
The upsloping 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($91,418) and the relative strength index (RSI) near the overbought zone signal that bulls are in control. A close above the $96,848 level clears the path for a rally to $100,000 and subsequently to $107,500.
The first support on the downside is the breakout level of $94,789 and then the 20-day EMA. Sellers will have to swiftly tug the price below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($89,959) to weaken the bullish momentum.
Ether price prediction
Ether (ETH) broke above the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle pattern on Tuesday, indicating that the bulls have overpowered the bears.
The bears will try to pull the price back inside the triangle, but if the bulls successfully defend the resistance line, the ETH/USDT pair may rally to $3,659 and then to $4,000.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price skids back into the triangle, it is likely to find support at the moving averages. If the price rebounds off the moving averages, the bulls will again attempt to resume the up move. The bears will be back in the driver’s seat on a close below the support line.
XRP price prediction
XRP (XRP) bounced off the moving averages on Tuesday, indicating solid demand at lower levels.
The upsloping 20-day EMA ($2.06) and the RSI in positive territory indicate that the bulls have the upper hand. That increases the possibility of a break above the downtrend line, signaling a potential trend change. The XRP/USDT pair may then rally to $2.70.
This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the XRP price turns down and breaks below the moving averages. That suggests the pair may remain inside the descending channel for a while longer.
BNB price prediction
BNB (BNB) closed above the $928 level on Tuesday, completing a bullish ascending triangle pattern.
The bears will attempt to trap the aggressive bulls by pulling the BNB price below the moving averages. If they manage to do that, the BNB/USDT pair may drop to the uptrend line and then to the $790 level.
Contrarily, if the price turns up from the $928 level, it suggests that the bulls have flipped the level into support. That increases the likelihood of a rally toward the pattern target of $1,066.
Solana price prediction
Solana (SOL) reached the $147 level on Tuesday, where the bears are expected to pose a strong challenge.
The upsloping 20-day EMA ($135) and the RSI near the overbought zone suggest the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers clear the $147 level, the SOL/USDT pair may pick up momentum and soar toward $172.
The moving averages are the crucial support to watch out for on the downside. A break below the moving averages indicates that the bulls have given up. That may keep the Solana price inside the $117 to $147 range for a few more days.
Dogecoin price prediction
Dogecoin (DOGE) turned up from the moving averages on Tuesday, signaling that the bulls are attempting to take charge.
If buyers thrust the price above the $0.16 resistance, the DOGE/USDT pair will complete a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. The Dogecoin price may then rally toward the target objective of $0.20.
Instead, if the price turns down sharply from the $0.16 level, it suggests that the bears continue to sell on rallies. That may keep the pair range-bound between $0.16 and $0.12 for some time.
Cardano price prediction
Buyers successfully defended the 20-day EMA ($0.39) in Cardano (ADA), indicating a positive sentiment.
There is minor resistance at $0.44, but if the level is crossed, the ADA/USDT pair may rally to the breakdown level of $0.50. The recovery is expected to face significant selling at the $0.50 level, but if the bulls prevail, the Cardano price may ascend to $0.60. Such a move signals a potential trend change in the near term.
Sellers will have to swiftly yank the price below the moving averages if they want to retain the advantage. The pair may then slide to $0.33.
The vertical rally has pushed the RSI above the 87 level, signalling that the XMR/USDT pair is overbought in the near term. That may result in a few days of consolidation or correction in the near term.
Any pullback is expected to find support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $607. A shallow correction increases the likelihood of the continuation of the uptrend. The Monero price may then skyrocket toward $915. The bullish momentum is expected to weaken on a close below the 50% retracement level of $571.
Bitcoin Cash price prediction
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is attempting to find support at the moving averages, but the bears continue to exert pressure.
A break and close below the 50-day SMA ($589) suggests that the market rejected the breakout above the $631 level. That may trap the aggressive bulls, pulling the BCH/USDT pair to $563 and later to $518.
On the contrary, the bulls will attempt to resume the uptrend by pushing the Bitcoin Cash price above the $670 level. If they can pull it off, the pair may surge to $720, where the sellers are expected to step in.
Chainlink price prediction
Chainlink (LINK) turned up sharply from the moving averages on Tuesday, indicating that the bulls are trying to form a higher low.
The bulls will attempt to strengthen their position by pushing the Chainlink price above the $14.98 resistance. If they manage to do that, the LINK/USDT pair may rally toward $17.66. That brings the large $10.94 to $27 range into play.
Sellers are likely to have other plans. They will try to halt the recovery at the $14.98 level and pull the price below the moving averages. That may keep the pair stuck inside the $11.61 to $14.98 range for some more time.
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