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    AAVE Price Prediction: Recovery to $185-$195 Expected by January 2026 Despite Current Weakness

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    Rongchai Wang
    Dec 31, 2025 10:11

    AAVE price prediction targets $185-$195 recovery within 4 weeks as oversold RSI and descending wedge pattern suggest bullish reversal from current $149.76 level.





    Aave (AAVE) is trading at a critical juncture near its 52-week low of $148.76, presenting both significant risk and opportunity for traders. Our comprehensive AAVE price prediction analysis suggests a potential recovery is brewing, despite current bearish momentum indicators.

    AAVE Price Prediction Summary

    AAVE short-term target (1 week): $165-$170 (+10-13%)
    Aave medium-term forecast (1 month): $185-$195 range (+23-30%)
    Key level to break for bullish continuation: $167.50 (SMA 20)
    Critical support if bearish: $146.40 (immediate support)

    Recent Aave Price Predictions from Analysts

    Recent analyst forecasts show a cautiously optimistic consensus for AAVE’s recovery potential. AInvest’s AAVE price prediction targets $195-$205 in the short term, citing a descending wedge pattern and oversold RSI conditions as bullish catalysts. This aligns with our technical assessment showing AAVE trading near critical support levels.

    CoinCodex presents a more conservative Aave forecast with a $179.14 target, acknowledging the recent 3.05% monthly decline while recognizing technical recovery signals. The convergence of these predictions around the $180-$200 range suggests institutional analysts see value at current levels, despite the challenging technical backdrop.

    The market consensus indicates that while AAVE faces near-term headwinds, the risk-reward profile favors patient buyers willing to accumulate near support levels.

    AAVE Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Oversold Bounce

    Current Aave technical analysis reveals several compelling signals for a potential reversal. The RSI at 35.77 indicates AAVE is approaching oversold territory without reaching extreme levels, suggesting room for further decline but also positioning for a relief rally.

    The MACD histogram at -1.2450 confirms bearish momentum, but the relatively shallow reading compared to previous major corrections suggests selling pressure may be waning. AAVE’s position at 0.25 within the Bollinger Bands indicates the token is trading in the lower quartile of its recent range, historically a zone where reversals often occur.

    Volume analysis shows the recent decline has occurred on moderate volume rather than panic selling, which supports the case for a technical bounce rather than a fundamental breakdown. The daily ATR of $10.44 suggests normal volatility levels, indicating AAVE isn’t experiencing unusual stress.

    Aave Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios

    Bullish Case for AAVE

    The primary AAVE price target for bulls focuses on reclaiming the SMA 20 at $167.50, which would signal the first sign of trend stabilization. A break above this level opens the path to $185-$195, aligning with the descending wedge pattern breakout projections identified by recent analysts.

    The bullish scenario requires AAVE to hold above $146.40 support while building volume on any upward moves. Success in breaking $167.50 could trigger momentum toward the immediate resistance at $206.82, representing a 38% gain from current levels.

    Key technical requirements for the bull case include RSI recovery above 45, MACD histogram turning positive, and sustained trading above the lower Bollinger Band at $132.42.

    Bearish Risk for Aave

    The bearish scenario for AAVE centers on a break below the critical $146.40 support level, which could trigger a retest of the 52-week low at $148.76. A decisive break below this level would target the lower Bollinger Band at $132.42, representing an 11% decline from current prices.

    Risk factors include broader crypto market weakness, continued DeFi sector underperformance, and failure to generate meaningful volume on any bounce attempts. The distance from the 200-day SMA at $251.59 shows AAVE remains in a significant downtrend, requiring substantial fundamental catalysts for a sustained recovery.

    Should You Buy AAVE Now? Entry Strategy

    Based on our Aave technical analysis, the current level near $149.76 presents a calculated buying opportunity for risk-tolerant investors. The optimal entry strategy involves scaling into positions between $146.40-$151.85, using the SMA 7 as a guide for timing.

    Conservative buyers should wait for RSI to recover above 40 and MACD histogram to show improvement before initiating positions. Aggressive traders might consider beginning accumulation now with tight stop-losses below $145.

    Risk management is crucial given the bearish momentum. Position sizes should be limited to 2-3% of portfolio allocation, with stop-losses set at $144 to limit downside to approximately 4%. Take-profit levels should be staged at $165, $180, and $195 to capture the full recovery potential while managing risk.

    AAVE Price Prediction Conclusion

    Our AAVE price prediction anticipates a recovery to $185-$195 within the next 4-6 weeks, representing a 23-30% gain from current levels. This forecast carries a medium confidence level, supported by oversold technical conditions and analyst consensus around similar price targets.

    The key indicators to watch include RSI recovery above 40, MACD histogram improvement, and most importantly, AAVE’s ability to hold above $146.40 support. Failure to maintain this level would invalidate the bullish thesis and potentially trigger further declines toward $132.

    Traders should monitor the broader DeFi sector sentiment and Bitcoin’s performance, as both significantly influence AAVE’s price action. The prediction timeline extends through January 2026, with initial signs of recovery expected within 7-10 days if the technical setup holds.

    Image source: Shutterstock


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    How Strategy Buys Bitcoin in Downturns

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    Key takeaways

    • Strategy funds its dip buying primarily through ATM equity sales rather than operating cash flow.

    • Preferred shares and other financing tools add buying power but create ongoing dividend and interest obligations.

    • A $1.44-billion reserve is intended to reduce “forced seller” concerns during prolonged market slumps.

    • The model’s constraint is the cost of capital. Dilution risk, market sentiment and index rule changes can tighten the loop.

    Strategy just spent another $980.3 million on Bitcoin (BTC), adding 10,645 BTC at an average price of $92,098 and lifting its total holdings to 671,268 BTC.

    It’s the kind of headline the company has trained the market to expect. When price weakness shows up, Strategy treats it like inventory season.

    What makes this round more interesting is the backdrop. Bitcoin has been sliding sharply from recent highs, and Strategy’s own stock often feels that drawdown as a leveraged proxy.

    At the same time, the firm has been building a $1.44-billion reserve to calm concerns that dividend and interest obligations could eventually force a Bitcoin sale during a prolonged slump.

    So, the real question isn’t whether Strategy wants to buy dips; it’s how it keeps finding the money to do it and how durable that machine is if markets stay ugly.

    The “Bitcoin treasury” model

    Strategy treats Bitcoin as its balance sheet centerpiece, using public market financing to grow holdings faster than a typical company could through operating cash flow.

    In practice, that means raising capital through instruments such as at-the-market (ATM) share sales and other issuances, then deploying the proceeds into BTC even when prices are volatile.

    To keep the story legible for investors, Strategy leans on a set of Bitcoin-native metrics. The key one is “BTC Yield,” which the company defines as the period-to-period change in Bitcoin per share, its “BPS” ratio, tracking whether each diluted share is backed by more Bitcoin over time.

    So, the pitch becomes less “we bought more BTC” and more “we increased BTC exposure per share.”

    Did you know? Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury model was formally adopted on Sept. 11, 2020, when the company’s board approved a Treasury Reserve Policy, making Bitcoin its primary treasury reserve asset, alongside excess cash and short-term investments.

    How Strategy funds purchases when BTC is falling

    Strategy’s dip buying is financed through the capital markets, mainly by issuing securities and converting that demand into Bitcoin.

    The company is unusually explicit about this in its filings. In the same Form 8-K that disclosed the latest 10,645-BTC purchase, it also stated that the Bitcoin was acquired using proceeds from sales under its ATM programs.

    1) The “ATM” tap (common stock)

    An ATM program is essentially a standing authorization to sell stock into normal market trading over time rather than executing a single, large capital raise.

    In the week tied to the latest Bitcoin purchase, Dec. 8-14, 2025, Strategy reported selling 4,789,664 shares of MSTR for $888.2 million in net proceeds.

    That setup explains how the company can keep purchasing even when the macro environment looks ugly. It allows Strategy to convert equity demand into Bitcoin quickly without waiting for a perfect “risk on” moment.

    2) Preferred stock as a second funding lane

    Alongside common stock, Strategy has also been issuing multiple preferred series. The Form 8-K lists STRF, STRK and STRD, among others.

    During the same week, the company reported selling preferred shares as well, including STRD and smaller amounts of other series, as part of the funding mix.

    The trade-off is that preferred shares typically carry ongoing dividend obligations, which matter more when prices fall and sentiment turns. But they also give Strategy another avenue to raise capital when common stock conditions are less favorable.

    3) Debt and convertibles: Leverage with a long fuse

    Even when near-term purchases are funded through ATM flows, Strategy’s broader approach has long included debt and convertible-style financing to scale Bitcoin exposure.

    If the company believes long-term Bitcoin appreciation outpaces its long-term cost of capital, it will keep stacking as long as markets are willing to fund it on tolerable terms.

    Analysts who track the structure often describe it as a premium and leverage machine. When the stock trades at a rich valuation relative to the value of its Bitcoin holdings, issuance becomes easier. When that premium compresses, the machine slows.

    Put together, it’s a repeatable loop: Issue common stock, preferred shares or debt, raise cash, buy BTC, publish Bitcoin per share progress and then try to sustain investor demand for the next round.

    Because of this, the durability of Strategy’s dip buying, especially during drawdowns, depends less on conviction and more on whether that loop stays open.

    Why downturns can function as accumulation periods for this model

    On paper, a market downturn is the worst time to be a serial buyer. Prices are falling, headlines turn negative, and lenders become more selective.

    For Strategy, though, the downturn itself is part of the pitch. The company is less focused on timing the bottom and more on proving it can keep accumulating through volatility.

    The catch is that “buying the dip” only works if Strategy’s cost of capital remains manageable.

    When its stock trades at a meaningful premium relative to the value of the Bitcoin it already holds, issuing equity can appear accretive to the company’s Bitcoin per share narrative.

    When that premium narrows, something that often happens when Bitcoin and other risk assets are sliding, issuance becomes more expensive, dilution hurts more, and each incremental purchase is harder to justify.

    This is where the strategy becomes reflexive. Strong equity demand makes funding easier, which supports more Bitcoin buying and can reinforce demand.

    In a sustained drawdown, the loop can run in reverse. Weaker sentiment compresses the premium, tightens funding and slows accumulation. Strategy can still buy in that environment, but the pace is dictated by market appetite for its paper, not by how “cheap” Bitcoin looks on a chart.

    Did you know? Strategy is known for buying the dip. In late March 2025, it scooped up 22,048 BTC for about $1.92 billion, roughly $86,969 per coin, according to its March 31 filing covering purchases made between March 24 and March 30.

    The $1.44-billion “USD Reserve” and what it’s for

    The most direct answer Strategy has offered to the “What if this drawdown lasts?” question is its $1.44-billion reserve, a cash buffer explicitly set aside to pay preferred stock dividends and interest on outstanding debt.

    The company says the reserve was funded using proceeds from the sale of Class A common stock through its ATM program.

    This matters because Strategy’s capital stack is now part of the story. Preferred dividends and debt interest do not wait politely for Bitcoin to recover. If markets freeze and the company cannot issue comfortably, those payments become the point where critics start asking whether Bitcoin holdings might ever be used to plug the gap.

    Strategy is trying to preempt that narrative. In its Dec. 1 release, the firm said it intends to keep enough in its USD Reserve to fund at least 12 months of these payments, with the goal of building toward 24 months or more over time. It also stated that the reserve currently covers 21 months of dividends.

    In short, it’s a “no forced selling” signal, aimed at making the downturn survivable while the BTC buying machine keeps running.

    Dilution, higher carrying costs and index-rule pressure

    The first constraint here is dilution.

    Strategy’s accumulation loop works because it can routinely sell new securities, especially common stock, through its ATM program and convert that demand into Bitcoin. The flip side is that the share count rises over time, which is why the company encourages investors to judge performance through Bitcoin per share metrics rather than raw BTC totals.

    In a downturn, dilution becomes a louder critique because the stock price is usually weaker at the same time the company is issuing into the market.

    Next comes the carrying cost.

    Preferred dividends and debt interest are fixed obligations. When capital becomes more expensive, those obligations do not shrink. The company then needs fresh issuance, sufficient cash on hand — hence the USD Reserve — or another liquidity source to keep payments boring.

    The longer the drawdown lasts, the more investors focus on whether financing remains open on reasonable terms.

    Then there’s index and rule sensitivity.

    Inclusion in major indexes can support marginal demand for the stock, but classification frameworks are still evolving for firms whose core story is digital asset treasury management. MSCI’s consultation on how to treat companies with significant Bitcoin treasuries is one of the clearest watch items because an unfavorable outcome could change how some funds are allowed to hold or size the exposure.

    Did you know? During the 2022 crypto crash, Strategy, then known as MicroStrategy, recorded a $917.8-million paper loss on its Bitcoin holdings in Q2 2022, disclosed with its earnings on Aug. 2, 2022.

    Why earnings can swing wildly now

    There’s another reason Strategy can look “more volatile” on paper than it feels operationally: accounting. New US guidance for crypto held by companies, ASU 2023-08, moves qualifying crypto assets onto a fair value basis, with unrealized gains and losses flowing through net income each reporting period.

    That means a sharp Bitcoin move late in a quarter can materially swing headline earnings, even if the company did not sell a single coin and nothing changed in its day-to-day liquidity.

    For investors, reported profit can now resemble a proxy for Bitcoin’s chart. In a downturn, that can amplify negative optics, even when Strategy is still funding buys through issuance and cash reserves.

    What keeps the “strategy” running

    Strategy’s downturn buying looks relentless because the company has built a repeatable mechanism: sell paper, raise cash, buy Bitcoin, then measure success in Bitcoin per share terms. The question going forward is whether that mechanism stays cheap and open when markets remain stressed.

    • Watch how much room Strategy still has in its ATM programs and whether it continues converting issuance into purchases at anything close to the current pace.

    • Watch whether the $1.44-billion USD Reserve remains a growing cushion or becomes a reminder that dividends and interest are real bills that must be paid regardless of Bitcoin’s mood.

    • Keep an eye on how index providers and classification bodies treat digital asset treasury companies because shifts there can subtly change the pool of buyers that supports the entire loop.

    This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

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    Can Strategy’s $60B Bitcoin Bet Survive Debt and Market Stress in 2026?

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    In early 2025, Michael Saylor’s technology company MicroStrategy officially rebranded to Strategy and adopted a Bitcoin-themed visual marketing program to reflect its core focus as the world’s largest corporate BTC holder.

    As of Dec. 30, Strategy has accumulated 672,497 Bitcoin (BTC), valued at nearly $59 billion and acquired at an average price of $74,997 per coin. With Bitcoin trading near $88,000, the company is sitting on an unrealized gain of roughly 17%.

    However, despite the paper profits, pressure has been building. Strategy must continue servicing dividends and financing costs tied to the preferred shares and debt used to fund its Bitcoin purchases, creating fixed cash obligations regardless of Bitcoin’s price moves.

    Those concerns resurfaced in November when Bitcoin slid to $82,000. To reassure investors about its ability to meet dividend and debt payments, on Dec. 1, Strategy said it established a $1.44 billion cash reserve to cover at least 12 months of preferred dividends and debt interest.

    As 2026 approaches, investors are questioning whether the model can withstand deteriorating market conditions.

    From business intelligence to Bitcoin treasury

    Strategy first started buying Bitcoin in August 2020, announcing its first purchase of 21,454 BTC for $250 million as a strategic treasury reserve asset. Ever since, the company has evolved into a full-scale capital markets strategy.

    Through at-the-market (ATM) equity programs, convertible notes and preferred stock issuances, Strategy has raised capital to acquire Bitcoin without selling its core holdings.

    Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings. Source: BitcoinTreasuries.NET

    The result is a structure that offers leveraged exposure to Bitcoin while maintaining a legacy software business that still generates operating revenue, though its contribution to valuation has diminished significantly.

    Notably, Strategy’s profit swings in 2025 were also heavily influenced by a shift to fair-value accounting for Bitcoin, which requires the company to revalue its BTC holdings each quarter and book unrealized gains or losses in net income. This change has made earnings more volatile, as movements in Bitcoin’s price now flow directly through reported results, even when no Bitcoin is sold.

    “Strategy stopped being a software story the day Bitcoin became 98% of the narrative. Today it’s a Bitcoin hedge fund wearing a BI ticker,” Marvin Bertin, co-founder and CEO at Maestro, told Cointelegraph.

    He said the analytics business still exists, but is negligible next to the company’s massive BTC balance sheet.

    Related: Strategy survives first Nasdaq 100 shakeup since entering the index

    For years, Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings made the company a preferred vehicle for investors seeking equity-based Bitcoin exposure, effectively serving as a proxy for BTC at a time when direct ownership or regulated spot products were not widely available.

    However, Bitcoin ETFs have now introduced cheaper exposure for institutions. Moreover, MSCI is consulting on potential index-rule changes that could exclude crypto-heavy “digital asset treasury” companies, which Strategy says could force passive outflows if implemented.

    MSCI is a major global index provider whose benchmarks are used by trillions of dollars in passive and active investment funds to decide what stocks to buy. Strategy’s removal from an MSCI index matters because index-tracking funds are often forced to sell the stock, which can reduce demand, liquidity and visibility.

    Related: Strategy adds nearly $1B in Bitcoin as market slump pressures MSTR stock

    Can Strategy’s Bitcoin model survive 2026?

    Jamie Elkaleh, chief marketing officer of Bitget Wallet, told Cointelegraph that Strategy’s model “remains sustainable as long as the crypto market stays constructive.”

    However, heading into 2026, he warned of “persistent dilution, sensitivity to interest-rate conditions, and the possibility that investor sentiment turns against leveraged crypto balance sheets.”

    “If markets tighten or appetite for equity-financed BTC exposure weakens, this approach becomes far more difficult to execute,” Elkaleh added.

    Cryptocurrencies, Business, Adoption, United States, New Year's Special, MicroStrategy, Companies, Bitcoin Reserve
    Strategy shares are down 44% YTD. Source: Google Finance

    Bertin echoed this sentiment, noting that Strategy’s Bitcoin model works well in strong bull markets, where the company can issue preferred stock and equity at a premium to its BTC holdings.

    However, in flat or choppy markets, that premium could turn into a discount, making new issuance value-destructive. Bertin warned that rising rates, competition from spot Bitcoin ETFs and investor fatigue could stall the model, while dividend obligations may eventually force the company to sell Bitcoin.

    Related: MSCI’s Bitcoin snub is like penalizing Chevron for oil: Strategy CEO

    What happens to Strategy if BTC drops 20%–30%?

    Bitcoin is a highly volatile asset. Historically, the cryptocurrency has even fallen 20%–40% during bull markets before resuming its trend.

    “We could easily see a significant correction in crypto assets in the coming bear market of 2026 and beyond, and a 20%-30% correction in Bitcoin isn’t that unlikely to happen,” Joel Valenzuela, Dash DAO core member, said.

    A drop this size wouldn’t immediately threaten Strategy’s survival, but it could break the mechanics of its business model, Bertin said. He explained that a sharp decline would shrink the value of its Bitcoin holdings and erase the equity premium that allows the company to issue shares above Net Asset Value (NAV), which is calculated by subtracting the fund’s total liabilities from its total assets and then dividing by the number of outstanding shares.

    Cryptocurrencies, Business, Adoption, United States, New Year's Special, MicroStrategy, Companies, Bitcoin Reserve
    Bitcoin price is down nearly 6% YTD. Source: CoinMarketCap

    At the same time, Strategy would still face large cash obligations from high-yield preferreds and convertible instruments. That would leave few attractive options, including issuing stock at a discount, selling Bitcoin to cover payouts, or operating as an expensive proxy in a market now dominated by low-cost Bitcoin ETFs.

    “It risks turning Strategy from the flagship of corporate Bitcoin into the case study in how leverage and dilution quietly kill a great narrative,” Bertin said.

    However, Elkaleh noted that the scale of Strategy’s holdings “provides long-term optionality for recovery if the broader crypto cycle stabilizes.” He still warned that, in the short term, any major BTC drawdown would meaningfully strain its capital structure.

    Related: Strategy responds to MSCI letter, makes case for index inclusion

    Bull case vs. bear case scenarios

    In the optimistic scenario, Bitcoin resumes its rally, restoring Strategy’s NAV premium, which has briefly dropped below 1 in recent months, meaning its market value was less than the value of its underlying Bitcoin holdings minus liabilities.

    Elkaleh said Bitcoin could break above $150,000 next year, enabling Strategy to resume accretive issuance and deliver equity gains of 100% or more.

    In his bullish case, Bertin predicted a strong Bitcoin breakout with sustained ETF inflows restoring Strategy’s equity premium, allowing it to issue stock above NAV, retire costly debt and once again outperform Bitcoin as a high-beta institutional proxy.

    However, he warned that in the bear case, the NAV discount persists, equity raises “become value-destructive, preferreds and converts are a growing tax on the treasury, and ‘never sell’ collides with basic balance-sheet math.”

    Valenzuela also warned that forced Bitcoin sales could trigger “a cascading liquidation event,” potentially affecting broader crypto markets.

    “The overlooked angle is that the bull case is just a hope, while the bear case is an accounting certainty,” Bertin said.

    Related: Saylor pitches Bitcoin-backed banking system to nation-states

    There is no single metric that defines Strategy’s success in 2026. Investors will need to monitor Bitcoin holdings, average acquisition cost, leverage ratios, preferred and debt issuance and crypto market performance.

    What’s clear is that Strategy is no longer viewed as a traditional operating company. It has become a leveraged Bitcoin vehicle with an operating business attached, a structure that can outperform dramatically in a bull market, and underperform just as sharply when conditions reverse.

    As Elkaleh put it, Strategy offers “amplified Bitcoin exposure along with the risks that come with leverage and dilution.”

    Magazine: Scottie Pippen says Michael Saylor warned him about Satoshi chatter