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    HBAR Price Prediction: Hedera Targets $0.10-$0.12 Recovery by May 2026

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    Rongchai Wang
    Apr 04, 2026 08:55

    HBAR price prediction shows potential 11-33% upside from current $0.09 level, with technical analysis revealing oversold conditions and key resistance at $0.10 resistance zone.





    Hedera (HBAR) is showing signs of consolidation near critical support levels as the cryptocurrency trades at $0.09, down 2.63% in the past 24 hours. With technical indicators presenting mixed signals and key resistance levels within reach, this HBAR price prediction analyzes the potential for a recovery rally in the coming weeks.

    HBAR Price Prediction Summary

    Short-term target (1 week): $0.095-$0.10
    Medium-term forecast (1 month): $0.10-$0.12 range
    Bullish breakout level: $0.10 (Upper Bollinger Band)
    Critical support: $0.08 (Lower Bollinger Band)

    What Crypto Analysts Are Saying About Hedera

    While specific analyst predictions from the past 24 hours are limited, recent blockchain analysis from Peter Zhang highlighted HBAR’s bullish momentum potential, targeting $0.16 despite current neutral technical conditions. According to on-chain data platforms, Hedera’s network activity remains robust, supporting the underlying fundamentals for a potential price recovery.

    The lack of fresh analyst commentary suggests the market is in a wait-and-see mode, with traders focusing on technical levels rather than fundamental catalysts for the next directional move.

    HBAR Technical Analysis Breakdown

    Current technical indicators paint a mixed picture for Hedera’s short-term outlook. The RSI sits at 37.50, placing HBAR in neutral territory but approaching oversold conditions, which historically has provided buying opportunities for patient investors.

    The MACD histogram shows a bearish reading of -0.0000, indicating minimal momentum in either direction. However, this flat reading suggests the selling pressure may be exhausting, potentially setting up for a reversal if buying interest emerges.

    Hedera’s position within the Bollinger Bands at 0.21 indicates the price is trading closer to the lower band ($0.08) than the upper band ($0.10), suggesting the asset may be oversold relative to its recent trading range. The tight clustering of moving averages around the $0.09 level demonstrates price compression that often precedes significant directional moves.

    Hedera Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case

    Bullish Scenario

    In the bullish case for this Hedera forecast, HBAR could target the upper Bollinger Band at $0.10, representing an 11% gain from current levels. A break above this resistance could open the door to the 50-day moving average at $0.10, with extended targets reaching $0.12 if momentum builds.

    The key technical confirmation needed would be a daily close above $0.095 with increasing volume, which would signal the end of the current consolidation phase and the beginning of a recovery rally toward the $0.10-$0.12 range.

    Bearish Scenario

    The bearish scenario sees HBAR testing the lower Bollinger Band support at $0.08, representing a 12% decline from current levels. A breakdown below this critical support could accelerate selling toward the psychological $0.07 level.

    Risk factors include the continued distance from the 200-day moving average at $0.14, which remains well above current price levels, indicating the longer-term trend remains challenged. Additionally, the relatively low daily volume of $4.52 million suggests limited institutional interest at current levels.

    Should You Buy HBAR? Entry Strategy

    For those considering an HBAR position, the current price zone around $0.09 offers a reasonable risk-reward setup. Conservative buyers might wait for a test of the lower Bollinger Band at $0.08 for a better entry point, while aggressive traders could begin accumulating near current levels.

    A suggested stop-loss would be placed below $0.075, representing the next significant support level below the Bollinger Band. This provides roughly a 16% downside buffer while maintaining upside potential of 25-30% to the $0.11-$0.12 target zone.

    Position sizing should account for HBAR’s volatility, with the Average True Range (ATR) indicating normal daily fluctuations that require patience for technical setups to develop.

    Conclusion

    This HBAR price prediction suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for Hedera over the next 4-6 weeks. The combination of oversold technical conditions, compressed volatility, and proximity to key support levels creates a favorable risk-reward scenario for patient investors.

    The most likely scenario sees HBAR consolidating between $0.08-$0.10 before attempting a breakout toward $0.12. However, traders should remain vigilant of broader cryptocurrency market conditions, which could override individual technical setups.

    Disclaimer: This Hedera forecast is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.

    Image source: Shutterstock


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    Execution Risk In Crypto Is The New Custody Risk

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    Opinion by: Ido Sofer, founder and CEO at Sodot.

    The crypto industry is normally well ahead of its game when it comes to pure innovation and functionality, but security is a different matter. 

    For years, custody risk in crypto was defined by a single fear: the theft of private keys. The industry responded by hardening storage with cold storage, air-gapped systems, MPC and other methods. It then recognized that protecting only the keys is not enough, introducing transaction security and policies to prevent malicious transactions that steal funds, although the keys remain safe. Both of these remain a serious threat, but focusing solely on private keys obscures a deeper shift.

    Custody itself has expanded far beyond private keys.

    “Custody” once meant protecting private keys. That definition no longer reflects reality. Custody has evolved into a complex, automated system that operates different kinds of transactions, across multiple venues, custodians, vendors and internal systems. Modern trading firms operate across exchanges, staking platforms, liquidity venues and infrastructure providers, each with API keys, validator keys, deployment credentials and system-level secrets that can move capital directly or indirectly. 

    Many of these credentials are stored in secret managers that, by design, return the full key to any authenticated process. Convenient, yes, but structurally fragile. If the execution environment is compromised, either by an external attacker, an employee that was threatened or a malicious dependency, the full key is compromised. Custody risk has expanded beyond dormant on-chain keys into a live execution layer, where capital moves in milliseconds and exposure happens in real time.

    The evolution of custody security

    Custody security evolved in stages. First, the industry secured private keys in storage. It then moved beyond storage, embedding policy and multi-party controls to govern how those keys were used in execution. The next step is inevitable: apply the same zero-exposure and policy-driven discipline to every key and credential. In modern crypto operations, API keys, deployment credentials and execution secrets carry significant risk. Extending private key best practices across this broader surface is no longer optional; it is the defining challenge of execution risk.

    In recent years, the execution risk has emerged as the single biggest vector for large-scale exploits. Cybercriminals are bypassing onchain security mechanisms in favor of the soft underbelly, namely the API keys, server credentials and other off-chain secrets needed to facilitate trading, code deployment, staking and custodial actions. Recent major breaches, including the Bybit hack, started with an off-chain hack and compromised credentials, which later led to on-chain loss of funds. 

    How big is the execution risk?

    It’s big and structural. Asset managers, trading firms, custodians and payment companies connect to dozens of CEXs, DEXs, liquidity providers and other vendors simultaneously. Each integration introduces its own credentials, access controls and operational dependencies. Managing these spans across development, ops, trading, risk and security teams, which creates complexity that compounds over time.

    Securing these operations is a never-ending struggle. Maintaining consistent security policies and multi-vendor access is a massive headache that’s largely manual, resulting in inevitable security gaps and configuration drift.

    Related: Bitcoin is infrastructure, not digital gold

    Execution risk is not inherent toautomation. It is a byproduct of how trading systems have historically been designed. In many centralized exchange environments, API keys and operational credentials are placed directly inside trading infrastructure to eliminate latency. For market makers and trading firms, speed is not a feature, it is the business model. Even marginal delay affects revenue.

    Over time, full-key availability inside live systems became normalized as the simplest way to achieve high-performance execution. Credentials sit in a constant state of readiness so transactions can be authorized instantly. The issue is not that capital moves quickly. It is that unilateral authority is embedded inside operational infrastructure. And when authority is concentrated where execution happens, it becomes the most predictable attack vector.

    Existing controls fall short

    Existing tools fall far short of what’s required, considering the complexity of modern execution environments. 

    While crypto exchanges, custodians and over-the-counter trading desks certainly employ robust security policies for specific operations, it’s incredibly difficult for them to synchronize those controls across such a fragmented ecosystem. In fact, it’s almost impossible to maintain consistent governance across forty-odd exchanges for any length of time. Since it’s done manually, in silo, errors are inevitable, and a single mistake can put millions of dollars in value at risk. 

    There’s also the counterparty risk to consider. Exchanges and custodians may have their own vulnerabilities in the shape of bugs, misconfigured infrastructure and inconsistent policy enforcement mechanisms. If a trading firm’s internal security code requires geofencing, but one of the exchanges it’s connected to has a buggy implementation of that control, it creates a risk at the point of execution. 

    The risk is intolerable

    The lesson the industry learned from private key security is clear: eliminate full key exposure and enforce strict policy controls around usage. Those principles must now extend beyond on-chain private keys to every credential capable of authorizing value movement.

    The solution is not simply better secret storage. Secret managers were built for convenience; they return the full key to any authenticated process. In live execution environments, that model distributes authority to multiple components of the system at the very moment capital is in motion.

    What is required is zero key exposure architecture systems where no single machine or employee ever holds unilateral control, combined with enforceable, context-aware policies governing how credentials are used. Multi-party computation (MPC) is one way to implement this model, but the principle is broader — expand private-key security best practices across the entire crypto execution layer.

    Opinion by: Ido Sofer, founder and CEO at Sodot.