For more than a decade, Bitcoin investors have relied on the familiar four-year cycle to navigate bull runs, capitulations and market shifts driven by halving events. In 2025, that long-standing roadmap is beginning to look outdated — and analysts are seeking a new framework to understand where Bitcoin (BTC) is headed next.
Some argue that institutional capital is reshaping the market. Others highlight the weakening impact of the halving, the rise of AI as a competing investment frontier, or global liquidity trends that no longer line up with old patterns. Whatever the cause, one thing is clear: Bitcoin doesn’t seem to be moving like it used to.
In this exclusive Cointelegraph interview, Jeff Park, partner and chief investment officer at ProCap BTC, challenges the assumptions behind the four-year cycle, claiming that Bitcoin may now be transitioning into a much shorter, more dynamic two-year cycle.
Park argues that Bitcoin’s market structure has undergone a fundamental shift as institutional flows operate under different incentives than those of retail investors.
At the core of Park’s argument is a provocative idea: Shorter cycles could dramatically reshape how investors think about timing, volatility and Bitcoin’s potential path through 2026.
Park also touches on why some players prefer short-term weakness, how liquidity patterns intersect with the new cycle and what this shift could mean for the next major move.
Watch the complete interview with Jeff Park on the Cointelegraph YouTube channel for his full breakdown of the two-year cycle theory and its implications for Bitcoin’s future.
“Buy every dip.” That’s the advice from Strike CEO Jack Mallers. According to Mallers, with quantitative tightening over and rate cuts and stimulus on the horizon, the great print is coming. The US can’t afford falling asset prices, he argues, which translates into a giant wall of liquidity ready to muscle in and prop prices up.
While retail has latched onto terms like “buy the dip” and “dollar-cost averaging” (DCA) for buying at market lows or making regular purchases, these are really concepts borrowed from the pros like Samar Sen, the senior vice president and head of APAC at Talos, an institutional digital asset trading platform.
He says that institutional traders have used these terms for decades to manage their entry points into the market and build exposure gradually, while avoiding emotional decision-making in volatile markets.
Treasury companies like Strategy and BitMine have become poster children for institutions buying the dip and dollar-cost averaging (DCA) at scale, steadfastly vacuuming up coins every chance they get.
Strategy stacked another 130 Bitcoin (BTC) on Monday, while the insatiable Tom Lee scooped up $150 million of Ether (ETH) on Thursday, prompting Arkham to post, “Tom Lee is DCAing ETH.”
But while it may look like the smart money is glued to the screen reacting to every market downturn, the reality is quite different.
Institutions don’t use the retail vocabulary, Samar explains, but the underlying ideas of disciplined accumulation, opportunistic rebalancing and staying insulated from short-term noise are very much present in how they engage with assets like Bitcoin.
The core difference, he points out, is in how they execute those ideas. While retail investors are prone to react to headlines and price charts, institutional desks rely on “structured, rules-based and quant systematic frameworks.”
Asset managers or hedge funds use a combination of macroeconomic indicators, momentum triggers and technical signals to express a long-term view and “identify attractive entry levels.” He says:
“A digital asset treasury (DAT) desk may reference cross-venue liquidity data, volatility bands, candlestick patterns, and intraday dislocation signals to judge whether weakness is a genuine mean-reversion opportunity. These are the institutional equivalents of “buying the dip,” but grounded in quantitative statistical truths rather than impulse.”
And while retail DCA suggests buying the same dollar amount on a fixed schedule, institutions approach the same gradual exposure with “execution science.” Periodic market orders are replaced by algorithmic strategies to minimize market impact and avoid signaling intent.
In each case, their strategies are always shaped by mandates around risk, liquidity, expectation of market impact and portfolio construction (rather than posting memes of scooping up digs or trading on momentum).
Despite it looking like they’re reacting to the market in real-time, the reality is far more measured. Samar explains that quant-driven funds rely on statistical models that can discern when a sharp price move indicates a “temporary dislocation” rather than a real reversal.
So while retail traders may react to calls to buy the dip, institutional responses to market slumps are structured, driven by signals, and “governed by pre-defined processes.”
And if a retail investor wanted to mirror institutional best practice around DCA and dip buying, what should they copy?
According to Samar, the most important thing is to define your exposure upfront, before the markets hit the skids. He points out that institutions don’t wait for volatility to decide what they want to own. They have to define their target allocations and the cost bases they’re aiming for before the market moves to prevent them from reacting emotionally to headlines.
The second principle, Samar says, is to separate the investment decision from the execution decision. “A portfolio manager may determine it’s time to build exposure, but the actual trading is handled systematically, via execution strategies that spread orders over time, seek liquidity across venues and aim to keep market impact low.”
Even at the retail level, the idea is the same: Decide what you want to own first, then think carefully about how to get there.
Finally, analyze your moves post-trade. Institutions ask whether the execution matched the plan, where slippage occurred, and what can be improved next time. So if you want to stack sats like a pro:
“Set your rules early, execute calmly, and evaluate honestly — you will already be operating much closer to institutional best practice than most.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
A Solana presale event encountered distribution issues after a bot farm reportedly used over 1,000 wallets to snipe nearly the entire Wet (WET) token sale in seconds.
Hosted through the decentralized exchange aggregator Jupiter, the presale sold out almost instantly. But genuine buyers effectively had no chance to participate because a single actor dominated the presale, according to organizers.
Solana automated market maker (AMM) HumidiFi, the team behind the presale, confirmed the attack and scrapped the launch entirely. The team said it would create a new token and hold an airdrop to legitimate participants while explicitly excluding the sniper.
“We are creating a new token. All Wetlist and JUP staker buyers will receive a pro-rata airdrop. The sniper is not getting shit,” HumidiFi wrote. “We will do a new public sale on Monday.”
Bubblemaps identifies alleged sniper after tracing over 1,000 wallets
On Friday, the blockchain analytics platform Bubblemaps announced that it had identified the entity behind the presale attack, having observed unusual wallet clustering during the token sale.
In an X thread, the company reported that at least 1,100 out of the 1,530 participating wallets displayed identical funding and activity patterns, suggesting that a single actor controlled them.
Bubblemaps CEO Nick Vaiman told Cointelegraph that their team analyzed presale participants using their platform and saw patterns, including new wallets with no prior onchain activity, all being funded by a handful of wallets.
These also received funding in a tight time window with similar Solana (SOL) token amounts.
“Despite some of the clusters not connected together onchain, the behavioral similarities in size, time, and funding all point to a single entity,” Vaiman told Cointelegraph.
Bubblemaps said that the sniper funded thousands of new wallets from exchanges, which had received 1,000 USDC (USDC) before the sale.
The analytics company said one of the clusters “slipped,” allowing them to link the attack to a Twitter handle, “Ramarxyz,” who also went on X to ask for a refund.
Bubblemaps demonstrated the wallets participating in the presale. Source: Bubblemaps
Vaiman told Cointelegraph that Sybil attacks are becoming more common in token presales and airdrops. Still, he said the patterns are “different every time.” He said that for safety, teams should implement Know Your Customer (KYC) measures or use algorithms to detect sybils.
He said they could also manually review presale or airdrop participants before allocating tokens.
“Sybil activity needs to be treated as a critical security threat to token launches,” Vaiman told Cointelegraph. “Projects should have dedicated teams or outsource Sybil detection to professionals who can assist.”
Bitcoin may have delivered an impressive bounce from $84,000 to start the week, but the bullish sentiment was dampened by supplier congestion from the yearly open around $93,000.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that the BTC/USD pair is trading below the average realized price (cost basis) of most age groups, signalling instability, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost.
“The first area we want Bitcoin to reclaim is the realized price of the youngest LTH band,” Darfost said in an X post on Friday, referring to the cost basis of six to 12-month-old BTC holders around $97,000.
“This level marks the transition between STH and LTH,” the analyst wrote, adding:
“Breaking above it would put those investors back into a comfortable position, restoring their expectations of potential gains and encouraging them to keep holding rather than selling, which will bring some stability.”
Bitcoin: Realized price, UTXO age bands. Source: CryptoQuant
Failure to close above $97,000 would mean “caution remains necessary,” Darkfost added.
On the downside, the first major support sits at $88,000, representing the lower range of BTC’s price action on higher time frames, according to analyst Daan Crypto Trades.
$BTC Has retaken the previous range with this bounce.
Still a lot of work to do but at least the insane selling has stalled for the time being.
This meant that the price remained suppressed below the yearly open of above $93,000.
This coincides with the “high range resistance at $93,500,” said analyst Rekt Capital in a recent post on X, adding:
“A weekly close above $93,500 and post-breakout retest of this level into new support (just like in previous green circles) would confirm the range breakout.”
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Rekt Capital
Private wealth manager Swissblock said Bitcoin’s “momentum is igniting after weeks of being fully negative,” as Bitcoin fights to consolidate above the yearly open at $93,000-$93,500.
If Bitcoin holds $93,000, “the next short-term target is a break above $95K,” Swissblock added.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: Swissblock
Fellow analyst AlphaBTC said he expected the price to rebound from the current level on the last leg up to close out the week above the yearly open, which is now acting as resistance.
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s bearish December period could change with reduced leverage and price reclaiming key technical levels, hinting at a more stable setup.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Technical analysis suggests SOL could reach $155-165 in the next 2-4 weeks, with immediate resistance at $146.91 providing the first test for bullish continuation.
With Solana trading at $139.02 amid a complex technical landscape, this SOL price prediction examines the convergence of bullish momentum indicators and analyst forecasts pointing toward a potential breakout in the coming weeks.
SOL Price Prediction Summary
• SOL short-term target (1 week): $146-150 (+5.0% to +7.9%)
• Solana medium-term forecast (1 month): $155-165 range (+11.5% to +18.7%)
• Key level to break for bullish continuation: $146.91 immediate resistance
• Critical support if bearish: $121.66 strong support level
Recent Solana Price Predictions from Analysts
Recent analyst predictions show a cautiously optimistic outlook for SOL. CoinCodex projects a modest SOL price target of $142.88 in the short term, representing a 1.55% increase, while Polymarket sentiment indicates a 56% probability of SOL trading between $130-$140. However, Blockchain.News presents a more bullish Solana forecast with targets of $155-165 based on technical momentum.
The consensus among these predictions suggests moderate bullish sentiment, with the most conservative estimate at $130 and the most optimistic reaching $165. This range aligns with current technical indicators showing early signs of momentum recovery despite recent weakness.
SOL Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Bullish Reversal
The current Solana technical analysis reveals several compelling factors supporting a bullish bias. The MACD histogram at 2.3482 indicates building positive momentum, while the price position at 0.6461 within the Bollinger Bands suggests room for upward movement toward the upper band at $146.04.
The RSI reading of 45.79 sits in neutral territory, providing ample space for appreciation before reaching overbought conditions. Notably, SOL has found support above the critical $125.25 level mentioned in recent analyst reports, suggesting the formation of a higher low pattern.
Volume analysis shows substantial daily trading of $367.6 million on Binance, indicating healthy market participation. The recent bullish engulfing pattern from the support level, combined with the positive MACD histogram, suggests institutional accumulation may be underway.
Solana Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for SOL
In the bullish scenario, this SOL price prediction anticipates a break above the immediate resistance at $146.91, which would trigger a move toward the $155-165 target range. The bullish case relies on sustained momentum above the 20-day SMA at $136.12 and successful reclaim of the upper Bollinger Band.
Key catalysts for the upside include breaking through the pivot point at $140.59 with conviction, followed by clearing the $146.91 resistance. If these levels hold as support on any pullbacks, the next SOL price target becomes the $155-165 zone, representing a potential 18.7% gain from current levels.
Bearish Risk for Solana
The bearish scenario for this Solana forecast would unfold if SOL fails to hold the critical support at $121.66. A breakdown below this level could trigger selling pressure toward the lower Bollinger Band at $126.21, and potentially test the 52-week low region around $105.40.
Risk factors include failure to reclaim the 20-day SMA convincingly, deteriorating MACD momentum, or broader crypto market weakness. The significant distance from the 52-week high of $247.50 (-43.83%) also suggests overhead supply could emerge at higher levels.
Should You Buy SOL Now? Entry Strategy
Based on this SOL price prediction analysis, the current risk-reward setup appears favorable for strategic accumulation. The optimal entry strategy involves buying on dips toward the $135-137 support zone, with a stop-loss below $130 to limit downside risk.
For those wondering whether to buy or sell SOL, the technical setup suggests a buying opportunity for medium-term holders. However, short-term traders should wait for a confirmed break above $146.91 before establishing long positions targeting the $155-165 range.
Position sizing should account for the 14-day ATR of $9.28, indicating normal volatility conditions. Conservative investors might consider dollar-cost averaging into positions around current levels, while more aggressive traders can target the breakout above immediate resistance.
SOL Price Prediction Conclusion
This comprehensive Solana forecast points to a medium confidence prediction of SOL reaching the $155-165 range within the next 2-4 weeks, contingent on breaking key resistance levels. The convergence of positive MACD momentum, neutral RSI conditions, and analyst targets in similar ranges supports this bullish SOL price prediction.
Key indicators to monitor include the MACD maintaining its positive trajectory, successful defense of the $136.12 support (20-day SMA), and volume confirmation on any breakout attempts. The prediction would be invalidated if SOL closes below $130 on significant volume, shifting the bias bearish toward the $121.66 support zone.
Timeline expectations suggest initial targets of $146-150 within one week, followed by the broader $155-165 Solana forecast range materializing over the next month, assuming continued momentum and favorable market conditions.
ADA price prediction shows mixed signals with short-term targets of $0.39-$0.65 while medium-term Cardano forecast points to potential $1.69 recovery.
Cardano’s ADA faces a critical juncture as technical indicators paint a mixed picture for the cryptocurrency’s immediate future. With the token trading at $0.44 and showing signs of both weakness and emerging bullish momentum, our comprehensive ADA price prediction analysis reveals divergent scenarios that traders need to navigate carefully.
ADA Price Prediction Summary
• ADA short-term target (1 week): $0.39-$0.48 range (-11% to +9%)
• Cardano medium-term forecast (1 month): $0.65-$1.69 potential recovery zone • Key level to break for bullish continuation: $0.51 immediate resistance
• Critical support if bearish: $0.37 strong support level
Recent Cardano Price Predictions from Analysts
The latest analyst predictions for ADA reveal a fascinating divergence in market sentiment. PricePredictions.com presents the most optimistic Cardano forecast with an ADA price target of $1.69 for the medium term, representing a massive 284% upside from current levels. This bullish stance contrasts sharply with more conservative predictions from AMB Crypto, which sees ADA reaching $0.65 in the short term, and Changelly’s bearish outlook targeting $0.39.
The wide spread between these predictions—ranging from $0.39 to $1.69—highlights the uncertainty surrounding Cardano’s price direction. However, the consensus suggests that while short-term bearish pressure may persist, medium-term recovery potential remains intact. This aligns with our technical analysis showing ADA trading below key moving averages but displaying early signs of momentum reversal.
ADA Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Potential Reversal
Our Cardano technical analysis reveals several critical indicators suggesting ADA may be positioning for a directional breakout. The current price of $0.44 sits precisely at the pivot point level, creating a decision zone that will determine the next significant move.
The RSI reading of 43.46 indicates neutral territory with room for upward movement before reaching overbought conditions. More encouraging is the MACD histogram showing a positive 0.0098 reading, signaling emerging bullish momentum despite the overall bearish MACD positioning at -0.0304. This divergence often precedes trend reversals and supports our medium-term ADA price prediction.
Bollinger Bands positioning at 0.5759 places ADA slightly above the middle band, suggesting the token has room to move toward the upper band at $0.48. The stochastic indicators show %K at 82.02 and %D at 80.26, indicating overbought conditions that may require consolidation before the next leg higher.
Volume analysis from Binance spot trading shows $42 million in 24-hour turnover, which represents moderate but not exceptional interest. For our bullish ADA price target scenarios to materialize, we’ll need to see volume expansion above $60 million daily.
Cardano Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for ADA
The optimistic scenario for our ADA price prediction hinges on breaking above the immediate resistance at $0.51. Success here would likely trigger momentum toward the next significant level at $0.65, aligning with AMB Crypto’s short-term forecast. A sustained move above $0.65 could then target the ambitious $1.69 level suggested by PricePredictions.com.
For this bullish Cardano forecast to unfold, ADA needs to reclaim its 50-day moving average at $0.53, which would signal a shift in the intermediate trend. The technical setup would be confirmed by RSI moving above 50 and MACD crossing into positive territory.
Bearish Risk for Cardano
The bearish scenario for our ADA price prediction centers on failure to hold current support levels. A break below the strong support at $0.37 would validate Changelly’s pessimistic outlook targeting $0.39. This would represent a test of the 52-week low and could trigger further selling pressure.
Key risk factors include continued weakness in Bitcoin and broader crypto markets, potential regulatory concerns, or failure to deliver on Cardano’s development roadmap milestones. The distance of 54% from the 52-week high at $0.96 demonstrates the significant correction ADA has already endured.
Should You Buy ADA Now? Entry Strategy
Based on our technical analysis, the decision to buy or sell ADA depends heavily on risk tolerance and time horizon. For short-term traders, we recommend waiting for a clear break above $0.48 (upper Bollinger Band) before establishing long positions, with a stop-loss at $0.41.
Conservative investors might consider dollar-cost averaging into positions between $0.42-$0.44, using any dips toward $0.39 as accumulation opportunities. The risk-reward ratio favors buyers at current levels, given the proximity to strong support and potential for the medium-term ADA price target of $0.65-$1.69.
Position sizing should be conservative given the current uncertainty, with no more than 2-3% of portfolio allocated to ADA until clearer directional signals emerge. The daily ATR of $0.03 suggests moderate volatility that allows for strategic entry point selection.
ADA Price Prediction Conclusion
Our comprehensive analysis suggests a medium confidence ADA price prediction of $0.65 within 4-6 weeks, with potential extension toward $1.69 over a 2-3 month timeframe. The current technical setup favors patient buyers willing to weather short-term volatility for medium-term gains.
Critical indicators to monitor include RSI breakthrough above 50, MACD line crossing above the signal line, and most importantly, a decisive break above $0.51 resistance. Failure to hold $0.37 support would invalidate our bullish Cardano forecast and suggest deeper correction toward $0.30-$0.35.
The prediction timeline suggests resolution within 2-3 weeks, with either a breakout above $0.51 confirming the bullish scenario or a breakdown below $0.37 validating bearish concerns. Volume expansion above $60 million daily will be crucial for confirming any directional move in our ADA price prediction framework.
Institutional blockchain infrastructure provider Digital Asset, the creator of the Canton Network, has raised about $50 million in strategic investments from BNY, iCapital, Nasdaq and S&P Global, according to a person familiar with the deal.
According to an announcement on Thursday, the strategic funding will build on Digital Asset’s strong momentum to scale the Canton Network following recent funding milestones that raised $135 million.
The participation of these four big names highlights the range of institutions supporting the Canton Network, as big banks, exchanges, data, and wealth infrastructure all lend their weight to the same underlying blockchain stack.
“Institutions across the financial ecosystem recognize the necessity of blockchain infrastructure purpose-built for regulated markets,” said Yuval Rooz, CEO of Digital Asset. “The addition of BNY, iCapital, S&P Global, and Nasdaq marks another milestone in the evolution of both Digital Asset and Canton.”
Canton Network’s bet on institutional rails
The Canton Network is a public, permissionless layer-1 blockchain with a focus on institutional-grade compliance and configurable privacy. According to the company, Canton now underpins trillions of dollars’ worth of tokenized real‑world assets, with more than 600 institutions and validators participating across the network.
The latest investor roster to back Canton suggests that the network’s thesis is resonating with large incumbents who want public‑chain benefits without sacrificing privacy or regulatory comfort. Canton pitches itself as a “network of networks” with configurable privacy and compliance controls, explicitly aimed at regulated markets rather than retail DeFi experimentation.
Global asset manager Franklin Templeton is already building on these rails. In October, the $1.6 trillion asset manager said it would move its Benji Investments platform, which tokenizes shares of its flagship US money market fund, onto Canton Network, extending a live tokenized-fund product that previously ran on public chains into Canton’s institutional ecosystem.
Unlike other networks, Canton avoided the ICO route. Its tokenomics are designed to favor validators and applications that drive real transaction activity on the network, rather than pure token speculation, as Rootz previously told Cointelegraph:
“Our thesis was focused on serving large-scale institutions. We’ve been very patient. We refused to do an ICO. We refuse to do a token pre-mine. We’ve really thought about the tokenomics.”
A person familiar with the deal told Cointelegraph that the latest investments build directly on Digital Asset’s $135 million strategic round earlier this year, which brought in DRW, Tradeweb, Goldman Sachs, DTCC, Citadel Securities, Paxos, and others to help scale Canton and onboard more real‑world assets.
Vanguard reverses its Bitcoin stance | ETF Tracker
The timing is notable. This week, Vanguard, the second-largest asset manager in the world, announced that it would finally allow its clients to start trading crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds on its platform, reversing its prior anti-Bitcoin stance.
Bank of America, the second-largest US bank, also revised its policy on crypto, reportedly recommending a 1%–4% allocation to its wealth management clients.
At the same time, Coinbase is deepening work with major US banks on stablecoin, custody and settlement pilots, positioning itself as plumbing for institutions that don’t want to build everything in‑house.
Against this backdrop, a single stack that now counts banks, an exchange operator, a data and index giant and a wealth‑tech company as investors is a strong indicator of where the industry expects long‑term onchain market infrastructure to live. As Brian Ruane, head of Global Clearing, Credit Services and Corporate Trust at BNY, commented:
“As capital markets move faster toward a real-time, always-on operating model, the development of financial infrastructure that seamlessly connects digital and traditional markets has never been more important. We’re excited to work with Digital Asset and Canton to continue advancing privacy-enabled and interoperable settlement solutions at institutional scale.”
Deutsche Börse Group, a global exchange organization, has entered into a strategic partnership with the US crypto exchange Kraken with a mission of bridging traditional and digital markets.
Kraken and Deutsche Börse are joining forces to create unified access across traditional and digital asset markets, according to a joint announcement on Thursday.
The companies plan to improve institutional access to regulated crypto products, including spot trading, tokenized markets and derivatives, as well as enhanced liquidity for institutions across multiple jurisdictions.
“Across our entire value this partnership will further enhance our support for institutional clients in the digital asset era and pave the way for digital capital markets,” Deutsche Börse Group CEO Stephan Leithner said.
XStocks, 360T and Eurex among multiple integrations
The partnership targets a broad set of integrations, including the addition of Kraken-backed xStocks to Deutsche Börse’s digital asset infrastructure 360X.
In the first phase of collaboration, Kraken will integrate directly with 360T, providing its clients with bank-grade FX liquidity and significantly scaling its fiat-to-crypto rails and ensuring institutional execution.
Subject to regulatory approvals, the collaboration also aims to expand Kraken’s access to Europe’s regulated futures and options markets by adding derivatives listed on the German derivatives exchange Eurex, the announcement said.
Kraken and Deutsche Börse will also work to integrate xStocks, tokenized stocks issued by Backed Finance, which Kraken plans to acquire by the end of 2025. Clearstream-held securities are also expected to be distributed in a tokenized form to Kraken’s client base, the announcement said.
“Our partnership with Deutsche Börse Group demonstrates what happens when two infrastructures designed for scale and trust intersect,” Kraken co-CEO Arjun Sethi said, adding:
“By linking traditional and digital markets across a wide range of asset classes, we’re building a holistic foundation for the next generation of financial innovation: defined by efficiency, openness, and client access.”
Deutsche Börse’s CEO Leithner highlighted the company’s “ongoing commitment to shaping the future of financial markets,” noting that its partnership with Kraken combines trust and resilience of our regulated infrastructure with the innovation of the digital asset ecosystem.
XRP (XRP) price is up 12% since plunging below the $2 mark on Nov. 21, reclaiming some key support levels. Surging network activity and persistent institutional demand, coupled with reduced supply on exchanges, may lead to a sustained price recovery.
Key takeaways:
A surge in XRP ledger velocity and whale activity signals elevated network activity and demand.
A decrease in XRP supply on exchanges indicates strong accumulation by holders.
XRP price bulls look to establish strong support at $2.15 for the next leg up.
XRP Ledger velocity hits 2025 highs
XRP ledger’s velocity rose has seen a sudden spike, rising to a yearly high of 0.0324 on Wednesday, per data from CryptoQuant.
Velocity is a metric used to determine the frequency of XRP’s circulation across the XRP Ledger over a given period.
High velocity indicates XRP is actively used in “economic activity and onchain transactions” rather than held, said CryptoQuant analyst CryptoOnchain in a Wednesday Quicktake analysis, adding:
“Such a surge typically signifies high liquidity and substantial involvement from traders or significant movements by whales.”
XRP/Ledger velocity. Source: CryptoQuant
This data confirms that the XRP Ledger is “experiencing one of its most active periods in 2025, with user engagement reaching a peak,” the analyst added.
Another chart from CryptoQuant showed consistently high values on the spot average order size metric for 30 consecutive days, indicating that whales remained increasingly active on the spot market during this period.
XRP Ledger spot average order size. Source: CryptoQuant
High velocity and increased whale activity simply translate to more users, reflecting adoption and interaction with the XRP token, positively impacting its price.
XRP balance on exchanges hits seven-year lows
There has been a sharp decrease in the XRP supply on exchanges over the last 30 days, as evidenced by data from Glassnode.
XRP balance on exchanges dropped by 930 million tokens to 2.7 billion on Wednesday from 2.63 billion on Nov. 1, levels last seen in September 2018.
XRP reserve on exchanges. Source: Glassnode
A reducing balance on exchanges suggests a lack of intention to sell by holders, reinforcing the upside potential for XRP.
The sharp decline coincided precisely with record exchange outflows, as the XRP net position change among exchanges fell by 1.4 million XRP, marking the largest spike in history, according to Glassnode data.
XRP: Exchange net position change.
Such outflows typically indicate strong accumulation by large holders, who move tokens to cold storage or invest in investment products, thereby reducing immediate sell-side pressure.
XRP sits on strong support above $2.15
XRP’s latest recovery saw it reclaim a key support level at $2.15, which is also supported by the 50-period simple moving average (SMA).
Reclaiming this trendline has previously been preceded by significant recoveries in XRP price, as shown in the chart below.
Glassnode’s UTXO realized price distribution (URPD), which reveals the prices at which the current supply was created, indicates that $2.15 is the most significant support for XRP, where investors acquired 3.6 billion tokens.
As Cointelegraph reported, several other factors, such as persistent spot ETF inflows and a bullish divergence in the RSI on the price charts, indicate that an XRP rally is looking increasingly likely.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
AAVE price prediction suggests imminent breakout to $195-$205 range within one week, supported by bullish MACD momentum and RSI recovery from oversold levels.
Aave (AAVE) is positioning for a significant short-term rally as technical indicators align to support a bullish AAVE price prediction. Trading at $193.51 with emerging momentum signals, the decentralized finance lending protocol’s token appears ready to challenge key resistance levels that could unlock substantial upside potential.
AAVE Price Prediction Summary
• AAVE short-term target (1 week): $195-$205 (+1% to +6%)
• Aave medium-term forecast (1 month): $185-$220 range with potential spike to $240
• Key level to break for bullish continuation: $200.61 (24-hour high resistance)
• Critical support if bearish: $177.56 (SMA 20 and Bollinger Band middle)
Recent Aave Price Predictions from Analysts
The latest AAVE price prediction consensus from leading cryptocurrency analysts shows remarkable alignment on near-term bullish sentiment. Investing.com issued a strong buy signal based on technical indicators, while Blockchain.News provided a specific Aave forecast targeting the $185-$195 range. CoinLore’s AI-driven model pinpointed an AAVE price target of $193.70, which has already been achieved.
This convergence of predictions suggests institutional confidence in AAVE’s technical setup. The fact that CoinLore’s prediction has been validated adds credibility to the broader $185-$195 forecast range, with our analysis extending this to $205 based on momentum acceleration patterns.
AAVE Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Bullish Breakout
The Aave technical analysis reveals a compelling bullish configuration developing across multiple timeframes. The MACD histogram’s positive reading of 4.1393 indicates strengthening bullish momentum, while the RSI at 52.55 sits in neutral territory with room for upward expansion before reaching overbought conditions.
AAVE’s position at 0.89 within the Bollinger Bands suggests the token is approaching upper resistance but hasn’t yet reached extreme overbought levels. The price trading above both the 7-day SMA ($185.36) and EMA 12 ($184.66) confirms short-term bullish sentiment, though resistance at the SMA 50 ($200.33) remains a critical hurdle.
Volume analysis shows $20.4 million in 24-hour trading, providing adequate liquidity for the anticipated move. The 14-day ATR of $14.59 indicates sufficient volatility to support rapid price movements, making a $10-15 move within days technically feasible.
Aave Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for AAVE
The primary AAVE price target sits at $200.61, representing the immediate resistance level that coincides with yesterday’s high. A decisive break above this level opens the path to $205-$210, where the token could encounter profit-taking from recent buyers.
For sustained bullish momentum, AAVE needs to reclaim the SMA 50 at $200.33 and maintain trading above this level. Success here could trigger algorithmic buying and push the token toward $220-$240, representing a 14-24% gain from current levels.
The stochastic indicators at %K: 86.72 and %D: 93.09 suggest short-term overbought conditions, but this often precedes final momentum surges in strong trends.
Bearish Risk for Aave
Failure to maintain support at the SMA 20 ($177.56) would invalidate the bullish AAVE price prediction and potentially trigger a decline toward the Bollinger Band lower boundary at $157.03. This represents a 19% downside risk from current levels.
The key bearish scenario involves a breakdown below $175, which could accelerate selling toward the strong support zone at $147.13. Such a move would require monitoring DeFi sector sentiment and broader market conditions for confirmation.
Should You Buy AAVE Now? Entry Strategy
The current technical setup suggests a strategic entry opportunity for those seeking exposure to AAVE. The optimal buy zone exists between $190-$193, allowing for a favorable risk-reward ratio targeting the $200-$205 resistance zone.
Conservative traders should wait for a confirmed breakout above $200.61 before entering, accepting a higher entry price in exchange for reduced risk. Aggressive traders can capitalize on the current momentum signals, but should implement strict stop-loss orders at $185 to limit downside exposure.
Position sizing should account for AAVE’s 14-day ATR of $14.59, suggesting 2-3% portfolio allocation for moderate risk tolerance. Higher allocations require careful monitoring given the token’s volatility profile.
AAVE Price Prediction Conclusion
The technical evidence strongly supports a bullish AAVE price prediction with high confidence for the $195-$205 target within seven days. The convergence of positive MACD momentum, neutral RSI positioning, and analyst consensus creates a compelling setup for upward movement.
Key indicators to monitor include the MACD histogram maintaining positive momentum and RSI remaining below 70 to avoid overbought conditions. The critical timeline for this Aave forecast spans the next 5-7 trading sessions, during which the token should either confirm the bullish breakout or face potential correction toward support levels.
Traders should watch for volume confirmation on any move above $200, as this would validate the prediction and potentially accelerate gains toward the upper targets. The overall assessment maintains high confidence in the near-term bullish scenario, with medium confidence in sustained momentum beyond $205.
