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    Why Bitcoin Is Reacting More to Liquidity Than to Interest Rate Cuts

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    Key takeaways

    • Bitcoin now responds more to liquidity than to rate cuts. While rate cuts once drove crypto rallies, Bitcoin’s recent price action reflects actual cash availability and risk capital in the system, not just borrowing costs.

    • Interest rates and liquidity are not the same. Rates measure the price of money, while liquidity reflects the amount of money circulating. Bitcoin reacts more when liquidity tightens or loosens, even if rates move in the opposite direction.

    • When liquidity is abundant, leverage and risk-taking expand, pushing Bitcoin higher. When liquidity contracts, leverage can unwind quickly, which has often coincided with sharp sell-offs across stocks and commodities.

    • Balance sheets and cash flows matter more than policy headlines. The Fed’s balance sheet policy, Treasury cash management and money market tools directly shape liquidity and often influence Bitcoin more than small changes in policy rates.

    For years, US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have been a key macro signal for Bitcoin (BTC) traders. Lower rates typically meant cheaper borrowing, boosted risk appetite and sparked rallies in crypto. However, that classic link between Fed rate cuts and Bitcoin trading has weakened in recent months. Bitcoin now responds more to actual liquidity levels in the financial system than to expectations or incremental changes in borrowing costs.

    This article clarifies why anticipated rate cuts have not pushed up Bitcoin recently. It explains why episodes of liquidity constraint have triggered synchronized sell-offs across crypto, stocks and even precious metals.

    Rates vs. liquidity: The key difference

    Interest rates represent the cost of money, while liquidity reflects the quantity and flow of money available in the system. Markets sometimes confuse the two, but they can diverge sharply.

    The Fed might lower rates, yet liquidity could still contract if reserves are drained elsewhere. For instance, liquidity can tighten through quantitative tightening or the US Department of the Treasury’s actions. Liquidity can also rise without rate cuts through other inflows or policy shifts.

    Bitcoin’s price action increasingly tracks this liquidity pulse more closely than incremental rate adjustments.

    Did you know? Bitcoin often reacts to liquidity changes before traditional markets do, earning it a reputation among macro traders as a “canary asset” that signals tightening conditions ahead of broader equity sell-offs.

    Why rate cuts no longer drive Bitcoin as strongly

    Several factors have diminished the impact of rate cuts:

    • Heavy pre-pricing: Markets and futures often anticipate cuts well in advance, pricing them in long before they happen. By the time a cut occurs, asset prices may already reflect it.

    • Context matters: Cuts driven by economic stress or financial instability can coincide with de-risking. In such environments, investors tend to reduce exposure to volatile assets even if rates are falling.

    • Cuts do not guarantee liquidity: Ongoing balance sheet runoff, large Treasury issuance or reserve drains can keep the system constrained. Bitcoin, as a volatile asset, tends to react quickly to these pressures.

    Bitcoin as a liquidity-sensitive, high-beta asset

    Bitcoin’s buyers rely on leverage, available risk capital and overall market conditions. Liquidity influences these factors:

    • In environments with abundant liquidity, leverage flows freely, volatility is more tolerated, and capital shifts toward riskier assets.

    • When liquidity is constrained, leverage unwinds, liquidations cascade, and risk appetite vanishes across markets.

    This dynamic suggests Bitcoin behaves less like a policy rate trade and more like a real-time gauge of liquidity conditions. When cash becomes scarce, Bitcoin tends to fall in tandem with equities and commodities, regardless of the Fed funds rate.

    What lies behind liquidity

    To understand how Bitcoin reacts in various situations, it helps to look beyond rate decisions and into the financial plumbing:

    • Fed balance sheet: Quantitative tightening (QT) shrinks the Fed’s holdings and pulls reserves from banks. While markets can handle early QT, it eventually constrains risk-taking. Signals about potential balance sheet expansion can at times influence markets more than small changes in policy rates.

    • Treasury cash management: The US Treasury’s cash balance acts as a liquidity valve. When the Treasury rebuilds its cash balance, money moves out of the banking system. When it draws the balance down, liquidity is released.

    • Money market tools: Facilities like the overnight reverse repo (ON RRP) absorb or release cash. Shrinking buffers make markets more reactive to small liquidity shifts, and Bitcoin registers those changes rapidly.

    Did you know? Some of Bitcoin’s sharpest intraday moves have occurred on days with no Fed announcements at all but coincided with large Treasury settlements that quietly drained cash from the banking system.

    Why recent sell-offs felt macro, not crypto-specific

    Lately, Bitcoin drawdowns have aligned with declines in equities and metals, pointing to broad liquidity stress rather than isolated crypto issues. This cross-asset synchronization underscores Bitcoin’s integration into the global liquidity framework.

    • Fed leadership and policy nuances: Shifts in expected Fed leadership, particularly views on balance sheet policy, add complexity. Skepticism toward aggressive expansion signals tighter liquidity ahead, which affects Bitcoin prices more intensely than small rate tweaks.

    • Liquidity surprises pack a bigger punch: Liquidity shifts are less predictable and transparent, and markets are not as adept at anticipating them. They quickly affect leverage and positioning. Rate changes, however, are widely debated and modeled. Unexpected liquidity drains can catch traders off guard, with Bitcoin’s volatility magnifying the effect.

    How to think about Bitcoin’s macro sensitivity

    Over long periods, interest rates shape valuations, discount rates and opportunity costs. In the current regime, however, liquidity sets the near-term boundaries for risk appetite. Bitcoin’s reaction becomes more volatile when liquidity shifts.

    Key things to monitor include:

    • Central bank balance sheet signals

    • Treasury cash flows and Treasury General Account (TGA) levels

    • Stress or easing signals in money markets.

    Rate cut narratives can shape sentiment, but sustained buying depends on whether liquidity supports risk-taking.

    The broader shift

    Bitcoin was long seen as a hedge against currency debasement. Today, it is increasingly viewed as a real-time indicator of financial conditions. When liquidity expands, Bitcoin benefits; when liquidity tightens, Bitcoin tends to feel the pain early.

    In recent periods, Bitcoin has responded more to liquidity conditions than to rate cut headlines. In the current phase of the Bitcoin cycle, many analysts are focusing less on rate direction and more on whether system liquidity is sufficient to support risk-taking.

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    Flash Freezing Flash Boys: Per-transaction encryption to fight malicious MEV

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    Malicious MEV attacks pose a significant threat to traders on Ethereum. Our latest research shows that almost 2,000 sandwich attacks happen daily and more than $2 million is extracted from the network each month. Even traders who execute large WETH, WBTC or stable swaps remain at risk and can lose a substantial portion of their trades. 

    MEV thrives because of the transparent nature of blockchains, where transaction data is visible before transactions are executed and finalized. One path toward mitigating MEV is mempool encryption, particularly through the use of threshold encryption. In our earlier articles, we examined two different models for threshold-encrypted mempools. Shutter, one of the first projects to apply threshold encryption to protect the mempool, introduced a per-epoch setup. Batched threshold encryption (BTE), a newer model, decrypts multiple transactions with a single key to reduce communication costs and raise throughput.

    In this piece, we analyze Flash Freezing Flash Boys (F3B) by H. Zhang et al. (2022), a newly proposed threshold encryption design that applies encryption on a per-transaction basis. We explore its mechanics, explain its scaling properties as concerns latency and memory, and discuss the reasons it has not yet been deployed in practice.

    How Flash Freezing Flash Boys implements per-transaction encryption

    Flash Freezing Flash Boys addresses limitations in early threshold encryption systems that relied on per-epoch setups. Projects such as FairBlock and the early versions of Shutter used a single key to encrypt every transaction within a selected epoch. An epoch is a fixed number of blocks, e.g., 32 blocks on Ethereum. This created a vulnerability where some transactions that fail to be included in the specified block ends would still be decrypted with the rest of the batch. This would expose sensitive data and open up MEV opportunities to validators, thus making them vulnerable to front-running.

    F3B applies threshold encryption on a per-transaction basis, which ensures that each transaction remains confidential until it reaches finality. The general flow of the F3B protocol is shown in the figure below. The user encrypts the transaction with a key that only the designated threshold committee, known as the Secret Management Committee (SMC), can access. The transaction ciphertext and the encrypted key are sent to the consensus group as a pair (Step 1). Thus, nodes can store and order transactions while retaining all required decryption metadata for prompt post-finality reconstruction and execution. Meanwhile, the SMC prepares its decryption shares but withholds them until the consensus commits the transaction (Step 2). Once a transaction is finalized and the SMC releases enough valid shares (Step 3), the consensus group decrypts the transaction and executes it (Step 4).

    Per-transaction encryption had long remained impractical due to its heavy computational load for encryption and decryption as well as the storage requirement from large encrypted payloads. F3B addresses this by threshold-encrypting only a lightweight symmetric key instead of the full transaction. The transaction itself is encrypted with this symmetric key. This approach can reduce the amount of data that needs to be asymmetrically encrypted by up to ~10 times for a simple swap transaction. 

    Comparison of different cryptographic implementations of F3B and their latency overhead

    Flash Freezing Flash Boys can be implemented with one of two cryptographic protocols, either TDH2 or PVSS. The difference lies in who bears the setup burden and how often the committee structure is fixed, with corresponding advantages and disadvantages in flexibility, latency and storage overhead.

    TDH2 (Threshold Diffie-Hellman 2) relies on a committee that runs a distributed key generation (DKG) process to produce individual key shares along with a collective public key. Then, a user creates a fresh symmetric key, encrypts their transaction with it, and encrypts that symmetric key to the committee’s public key. The consensus group writes this encrypted pair onto the chain. After the chain reaches the required number of confirmations, committee members publish partial decryptions of the encrypted symmetric key together with NIZK (Non-Interactive Zero-Knowledge) proofs, which are required to prevent chosen-ciphertext attacks, where attackers submit malformed ciphertexts to try to trick trustees into leaking information during decryption. NIZKs guarantee the user’s ciphertext is well-formed and decryptable, and also that trustees submitted correct decryption shares.  Consensus verifies the proofs and, once a threshold of valid shares is available, reconstructs and decrypts the symmetric key, decrypts the transaction, and then executes it.

    The second scheme, PVSS (Publicly Verifiable Secret Sharing), follows a different path. Instead of the committee running a DKG in every epoch, committee members each have a long-term private key and a corresponding public key, which is stored on the blockchain and accessible to any user. For each transaction, users pick a random polynomial and use Shamir’s secret sharing to generate secret shares, which are then encrypted for each chosen trustee using the respective public key. The symmetric key is obtained by hashing the reconstructed secret. The encrypted shares are each accompanied by an NIZK proof, which allows anyone to verify that all shares were derived from the same secret, along with a public polynomial commitment, a record that binds the share-secret relationship. The subsequent steps of transaction inclusion, post-finality share release, key reconstruction, decryption and execution are similar to those in the TDH2 scheme. 

    The TDH2 protocol is more efficient due to a fixed committee and constant-size threshold-encryption data. PVSS, by contrast, gives users more flexibility, since they can select the committee members responsible for their transaction. However, this comes at the cost of larger public-key ciphertexts and higher computational overhead due to per-trustee encryption. In the greater scheme of things, the prototype implementation of the F3B protocol on simulated proof-of-stake Ethereum showed that it has minimal performance overhead. With a committee of 128 trustees, the delay incurred after finality is only 197 ms for TDH2 and 205 ms for PVSS, which is equivalent to 0.026% and 0.027% of Ethereum’s 768-second finality time. Storage overhead is just 80 bytes per transaction for TDH2, while PVSS’s overhead grows linearly with the number of trustees due to per-member shares, proofs and commitments. These results confirm that F3B could deliver its privacy guarantees with negligible impact on Ethereum’s performance and capacity.

    Incentives and punishments in the Flash Freezing Flash Boys protocol

    F3B incentivizes honest behavior among Secret Management Committee trustees through a staking mechanism with locked collateral. Fees motivate trustees to stay online and maintain the level of performance the protocol requires. A slashing smart contract ensures that if anyone submits proof of a violation, which demonstrates that decryption was performed prematurely, the offending trustee’s stake is forfeited. In TDH2, such proof consists of a trustee’s decryption share that can be publicly verified against the transaction ciphertext. Meanwhile, in PVSS, the proofs consist of a decrypted share together with a trustee-specific NIZK proof that authenticates it. This mechanism penalizes provable premature disclosure of decryption shares, increasing the cost of detectable misbehavior. However, it does not prevent trustees from colluding privately off-chain to reconstruct and decrypt transaction data without publishing any shares. As a result, the protocol still relies on the assumption that majority of committee members behave honestly. 

    Because encrypted transactions cannot be executed immediately, another attack vector is for a malicious user to flood the blockchain with non-executable transactions to slow down confirmation times. This is a potential attack surface common to all encrypted mempool schemes. F3B requires that users make a storage deposit for every encrypted transaction, which makes spamming costly. The system deducts the deposit upfront and refunds only part of it when the transaction executes successfully.

    Challenges to deploying F3B on Ethereum

    Flash Freezing Flash Boys offers a comprehensive cryptographic approach to mitigating MEV, but it is unlikely to see real-world deployment on Ethereum due to the complexity of integration. Although F3B leaves the consensus mechanism untouched and preserves full compatibility with existing smart contracts, it requires modifications to the execution layer to support encrypted transactions and delayed execution. This would require a far broader hard fork than any other update introduced since The Merge.

    Nevertheless, F3B represents a valuable research milestone that extends beyond Ethereum. Its trust-minimized mechanism for sharing private transaction data can be applied to both emerging blockchain networks and decentralized applications that require delayed execution. F3B-style protocols can be useful even on sub-second blockchains where lower block times already significantly reduce MEV, to fully eliminate mempool-based front-running. As an example application, F3B could also be used in a sealed-bid auction smart contract, where bidders submit encrypted bids that remain hidden until the bidding phase ends. Thus, bids can be revealed and executed only after the auction deadline, which prevents bid manipulation, front-running or early information leakage. 

    This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as, legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph. Cointelegraph does not endorse the content of this article nor any product mentioned herein. Readers should do their own research before taking any action related to any product or company mentioned and carry full responsibility for their decisions. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

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    Bitcoin’s Crash $60k ’Halfway’ Point In Crypto Bear Market: Kaiko

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    Bitcoin’s sharp correction at the start of the month may represent a critical “halfway point” in the current bear market, according to Kaiko Research.

    Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $59,930 on Friday, marking its lowest level since October 2024, before the re-election of US President Donald Trump, according to TradingView data

    The decline suggests the market has moved out of the euphoric post-halving phase and into what Kaiko described as a historically typical bear market period that lasts about 12 months before a new accumulation phase begins.

    In a research note shared with Cointelegraph on Monday, Kaiko said Bitcoin’s 32% crash was the most significant correction since the 2024 Bitcoin halving and may mark the “halfway point” of the current bear market.

    “Analysis of on-chain metrics and comparative performance across tokens reveals a market approaching critical technical support levels that will determine whether the four-year cycle framework remains intact,” Kaiko said.

    Bitcoin halving cycles, all-time chart. Source: Kaiko Research

    Related: Trend Research cuts ETH exposure by over 400K as liquidation risk rises

    Kaiko’s report highlighted several emerging onchain bear market signals, including a 30% drop in aggregate spot crypto trading volume across the 10 leading centralized exchanges, from around $1 trillion in October 2025 down to $700 billion in November.

    At the same time, combined Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) futures open interest declined from $29 billion to $25 billion over the past week, a 14% reduction that Kaiko said reflects ongoing deleveraging.

    Open interest for BTC and ETH futures, top 10 exchanges. Source: Kaiko Research

    While Bitcoin has realigned with the historical four-year halving cycle since the beginning of the year, determining the depth of the current bear market is complex, as “many catalysts that fueled BTC’s rally to $126,000 are still in effect,” said Shawn Young, chief analyst, MEXC Research.

    “With oversold indicators emerging on multiple timeframes, the rebound conversation around BTC is more a question of when, not if,” Young said, adding that Bitcoin may be entering a new cycle that will only become clear over the next year.

    Related: Binance adds $300M in Bitcoin to SAFU reserve during market dip

    Is $60,000 the bear market bottom?

    The key question for investors is whether the dip to $60,000 represents the low of the current bear market. The level roughly aligns with Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, which has historically acted as long-term support.

    Still, more market volatility is expected in the absence of crypto-specific market catalysts, Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen, told Cointelegraph, adding:

    “With that said, it is still very hard to say if it means we are going back to the conventional 4-year cycle. I have seen many prominent figures in the space air the idea, but equally many who do not think so.”

    However, Kaiko pointed to a 52% retracement from Bitcoin’s previous all-time high being “unusually shallow” compared to previous bear market cycles.

    A 60% to 68% retracement would “align more closely” with historical drawdowns, which implies a Bitcoin cycle bottom around $40,000 to $50,000, Kaiko said.

    Source: Michaël van de Poppe

    Still, some market participants argue that $60,000 already marked a local bottom. Analyst and MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe called the crash to $60,000 the local market bottom for Bitcoin’s price, citing a record low in investor sentiment and a critical low in the relative strength index, which sank to values last seen in 2018 and 2020.

    Magazine: Would Bitcoin survive a 10-year power outage?