Australia’s financial regulator, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), framed new participants in emerging sectors like digital assets as a “regulatory perimeter” issue in its Key Issues Outlook 2026 paper, signaling how it intends to regulate crypto entities in the year ahead.
In the report published on Tuesday, ASIC grouped digital assets alongside payments and artificial intelligence-driven financial services, citing risks tied to unlicensed activity, misleading conduct and businesses operating at the edges of existing laws.
Instead of a warning about token adoption or crypto volatility, ASIC focused on structural risks created when emerging financial services fall outside established licensing, disclosure and conduct regimes.
The outlook also emphasized that decisions on whether new classes of crypto products should be brought within formal licensing regimes ultimately rest with the government, stating that its priority for 2026 will be maintaining clarity around licensing boundaries and strengthening oversight at the regulatory perimeter.
Crypto grouped with artificial intelligence and payments
In the outlook, crypto appears alongside AI-powered financial services and payment platforms as part of a broader set of technology-enabled activities that challenge existing regulatory frameworks.
The regulator warned that some companies may actively seek to remain outside of regulation by exploiting unclear boundaries, contributing to what it described as regulatory uncertainty.
“Some entities will actively seek to remain outside regulation, contributing to perceived regulatory uncertainty,” ASIC wrote.
“As a result, ensuring clarity on licensing requirements and maintaining effective perimeter oversight will remain priorities for ASIC in 2026.”
Digital assets flagged amid ongoing enforcement activity
The emphasis on digital asset entities comes as ASIC continues to pursue enforcement actions tied to unlicensed crypto activities.
On Tuesday, an Australian federal court ordered BPS Financial to pay penalties of 14 million Australian dollars ($9.3 million) over misleading claims and unlicensed conduct linked to its Qoin Wallet product.
These developments come as Australia moves to formally fold crypto companies into its existing financial licensing regime.
In November, Australia’s Treasury released draft legislation proposing that digital asset platforms be required to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence, extending core financial services obligations to crypto companies, Cointelegraph previously reported. The proposal would require licensed platforms to act efficiently, honestly and fairly, provide clear disclosures to users and maintain appropriate risk management and compliance controls.
The bill, which advanced through consultation and is expected to reach Parliament, would require crypto trading and custody platforms to meet ASIC’s conduct, disclosure and risk obligations under existing law.
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Animoca Brands Japan has partnered with RootstockLabs to introduce Bitcoin-native decentralized finance (DeFi) tools to Japanese corporations and institutions.
The collaboration aims to localize and deploy Rootstock’s institutional program for the Japanese market, enabling companies to manage Bitcoin (BTC) as part of their corporate treasury strategies while accessing onchain financial tools secured by Bitcoin’s proof-of-work (PoW), according to a Tuesday announcement shared with Cointelegraph.
“In Japan, an increasing number of companies are beginning to utilize cryptoassets as part of their financial and treasury strategies,” said Kensuke Amo, CEO of Animoca Brands Japan. “Through this partnership, Animoca Brands Japan and RootstockLabs will support corporate adoption of cryptoassets in a manner compliant with Japan’s regulatory environment.”
The partnership will focus on helping Japanese companies manage Bitcoin as part of their treasury operations, including exploring Bitcoin-based financial tools and services built on Rootstock. The companies said they will also look at ways businesses could use these tools to improve treasury efficiency, while staying within Japan’s regulatory framework.
The two companies will assess the use of Rootstock-based assets such as Rootstock Bitcoin (rBTC), a Bitcoin-pegged token used in its DeFi ecosystem, and Rootstock Infrastructure Framework (RIF), a suite of utility protocols built on the Rootstock sidechain to scale Bitcoin by enabling faster, cheaper decentralized applications (dApps).
Animoca Brands Japan may offer these services through its Digital Asset Treasury Management Support Service.
Japanese companies have shown growing interest in holding Bitcoin as a long-term strategic reserve. Metaplanet is the most prominent corporate adopter of a Bitcoin treasury strategy in the country, with a balance of 35,102 BTC worth about $3.09 billion, according to BitcoinTreasuries.NET.
Other publicly traded Japanese companies that have built Bitcoin positions include NEXON Co., Ltd., which holds about 1,717 BTC, followed by Remixpoint with roughly 1,411 BTC and Anap Holdings Inc. with around 1,347 BTC.
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Layer-1 blockchain network Hyperliquid has seen an explosion in trading through “Builder-Deployed Perpetuals” this month, hitting a new all-time high in open interest on Monday.
In a post on X, Hyperliquid attributed the rapid adoption of HIP-3 — a permissionless market creation framework — to a surge in commodities trading.
“HIP-3 open interest reached an all-time high of $790M, driven recently by a surge in commodities trading. HIP-3 OI has been hitting new ATHs each week. A month ago, HIP-3 OI was $260M.”
HIP-3 was a Hyperliquid improvement proposal that went live in mid-October. Its introduction enables builders to launch perpetual futures contracts for any asset with a price feed.
A key requirement for anyone launching a perpetual swap on Hyperliquid is that they must have 500,000 HYPE staked on the network to deploy the contract.
The surging trading activity on HIP-3 comes amid a precious metals boom, with gold and silver both continuing to breach new ATHs over the past few months. This week, gold broke the $5,000 price range for the first time in its history, while the crypto market has lagged.
According to data from Flow Scan, HIP-3 has seen $25 billion worth of trading volume since launch.
The majority of activity is coming from markets launched by TradeXYZ, which accounts for over $22 billion.
TradeXYZ was developed by Hyperunit, Hyperliquid’s tokenization arm. Its biggest markets are currently XYZ100 — an index tracking the top 100 companies, Silver and Nvidia, at $12.7 billion, $3.0 billion and $1.2 billion apiece.
Its largest market, XYZ100, currently has $165.4 million worth of OI at the time of writing, representing 20% of the total $793.27 million OI on HIP-3.
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Bitcoin is attempting a recovery, but higher levels are likely to attract solid selling by the bears.
Several major altcoins are at risk of breaking below their support levels.
Bitcoin (BTC) bounced off the $86,000 level, but the bulls are struggling to sustain the higher levels. That shows in selling on rallies.
Although analysts are divided about the near-term prospects of BTC, Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao said in an interview with CNBC that BTC may witness a super cycle in the next 12 months.
In contrast, Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone said in an interview with Cointelegraph that BTC has put in a long-term top. He added that he doesn’t know where the bottom is but said “it is going to be like a low-price cure.”
Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView
However, several institutional investors have a different opinion and say that BTC is undervalued from $85,000 to $95,000. Coinbase said in its Charting Crypto Q1 2026 report that 80% of the surveyed institutional investors plan to either hold or add to their crypto positions on another 10% fall.
Could BTC and the major altcoins hold on to their support levels? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
S&P 500 Index price prediction
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) rebounded sharply off the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) (6,840) on Monday, indicating buying on dips.
The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) (6,904) is flattening out, and the relative strength index (RSI) is just above the midpoint, indicating that the bullish momentum is weakening. Buyers will have to push the price above the 7,000 level to start the next leg of the uptrend toward 7,290.
Sellers are likely to have other plans. They will attempt to pull the price below the 50-day SMA, starting a deeper correction toward 6,720.
US Dollar Index price prediction
The US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped below the moving averages on Monday and the 97.74 support on Friday.
Sellers will attempt to yank the price to the solid support at 96.21, which is a critical level to watch out for. If the support gives way, the index may resume the downtrend toward the 94.62 level.
Buyers have an uphill task ahead of them. They will have to thrust the price above the moving averages to keep the index range-bound from 96.21 to 100.54 for a while longer.
Bitcoin price prediction
BTC turned down from the 20-day EMA ($90,521) on Friday and plunged below the uptrend line on Sunday.
The 20-day EMA has started to turn down, and the RSI is in the negative zone, signaling advantage to bears. Any recovery attempt is expected to face selling at the moving averages. If the price turns down from the moving averages, the BTC/USDT pair may plunge to $84,000 and then to $80,600.
This negative view will be invalidated in the near term if the Bitcoin price turns up and breaks above the moving averages. The pair may surge to the $97,924 overhead resistance.
Ether price prediction
Ether’s (ETH) symmetrical triangle pattern resolved to the downside with a break below the support line on Sunday.
Buyers will attempt to push the Ether price back into the triangle, but are expected to face significant resistance from the bears. If the price turns down sharply from the moving averages, the likelihood of a drop to $2,623 increases.
The bulls will have to quickly push the price back above the moving averages to suggest that the break below the triangle may have been a bear trap. The ETH/USDT pair may surge to the resistance line of the triangle.
XRP price prediction
XRP (XRP) has been gradually falling inside the descending channel pattern, signaling that the bears remain in control.
There is support at $1.81, but the relief rally is likely to face selling at the 20-day EMA ($1.97). If the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, the XRP/USDT pair may tumble to the solid support at $1.61.
On the contrary, if the XRP price breaks above the moving averages, the recovery may reach the downtrend line. A close above the downtrend line suggests a potential trend change in the near term.
BNB price prediction
BNB (BNB) closed below the 50-day SMA ($883) on Sunday, indicating that the bulls are losing their grip.
The rebound off the uptrend line is expected to face selling at the 20-day EMA ($896). If the BNB price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it increases the possibility of a drop to the $790 support. Buyers will have to defend the $790 level with all their might, as a close below it may resume the downtrend.
The first sign of strength will be a close above the moving averages. The BNB/USDT pair may then ascend to the $959 overhead resistance.
Solana price prediction
Solana (SOL) bounced off the $117 support on Monday, indicating that the bulls are defending the level.
The relief rally is expected to face selling at the 20-day EMA ($131). If the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, the risk of a break below the $117 level increases. The SOL/USDT pair may then plunge toward the solid support at $95.
Contrary to this assumption, if the Solana price turns up and breaks above the moving averages, it signals that the pair may continue to oscillate inside the $117 to $147 range for some more time.
If the $0.12 support gives way, the DOGE/USDT pair may start the next leg of the downward move to the Oct. 10, 2025, low of $0.10.
If the price rebounds off the current level, the bears will attempt to halt the recovery at the moving averages. If that happens, the possibility of a break below the $0.12 level increases. Buyers will have to drive the Dogecoin price above the moving averages to retain the pair inside the $0.12 to $0.16 range.
Cardano price prediction
Cardano (ADA) has turned up from the $0.33 support, which is a critical near-term level to watch out for.
Buyers will have to swiftly propel the Cardano price above the downtrend line to signal strength. The ADA/USDT pair may then climb to the breakdown level of $0.50, which is expected to pose a strong challenge to the bulls.
Sellers will strive to halt the recovery at the downtrend line. If the price turns down from the overhead resistance, the bears will again attempt to tug the pair below $0.33. If they succeed, the next stop is likely to be the support line of the descending channel pattern, which is close to the Oct. 10, 2025, low of $0.27.
Bitcoin Cash price prediction
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) turned down sharply from the 20-day EMA ($596) on Sunday, but a minor positive is that the bulls held the $563 level.
The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in negative territory suggest that the bears will again attempt to sink the Bitcoin Cash price below the $563 support. If they manage to do that, the BCH/USDT pair will complete a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. The pair may then plunge to $518.
Contrarily, if buyers drive the price above the moving averages, the pair may rally to $631. Sellers are expected to fiercely defend the zone between $631 and $670.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
The CLARITY Act aims to address years of regulatory uncertainty with a structured framework that clearly defines digital assets, intermediary roles and disclosure obligations.
It places most spot trading of qualifying tokens under CFTC oversight, while keeping the SEC responsible for primary offerings, disclosures and investor protections.
The bill focuses on regulating activities as much as assets, setting registration and conduct standards for exchanges, brokers and dealers to strengthen market integrity and transparency.
The GENIUS Act governs stablecoins, while the CLARITY Act applies only in complementary areas, such as disclosures and any reward-related features tied to stablecoin use.
The CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025) aims to break the industry’s legislative logjam through a two-pronged approach that defines what digital assets are and delegates oversight based on how they function in the marketplace. The legislation moves beyond ad hoc enforcement and instead proposes a comprehensive framework for asset classification, intermediary roles and mandatory disclosures.
This article explains what the CLARITY Act is and why it matters, outlines its objectives and examines how it proposes to govern stablecoins. It also covers the concept of mature blockchains, key arguments against the CLARITY Act and its current legislative status.
Why the CLARITY Act matters
The CLARITY Act addresses a long-standing issue in the crypto space: regulatory uncertainty.
For several years, digital asset companies have faced a confusing overlap between the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The SEC often treats many tokens as securities, whereas the CFTC classifies them as commodities. This ambiguity has slowed innovation, complicated compliance, frustrated investors and created confusion for crypto businesses.
The CLARITY Act aims to resolve this logjam by establishing clear definitions for digital assets and assigning regulatory responsibilities based on the type of asset and activity involved. A predefined framework allows market participants to understand applicable rules upfront rather than facing uncertainty driven by enforcement actions.
Main objectives of the CLARITY Act
The bill uses three primary approaches to establish the related regulatory infrastructure:
Defining asset categories more precisely
The CLARITY Act introduces the term “digital commodity,” which refers to a digital asset whose value derives primarily from the use of its associated blockchain system. This definition excludes traditional securities and stablecoins. As a result, spot trading of many qualifying tokens would fall under the purview of the CFTC. Recognizing practical challenges faced by crypto networks, the definition emphasizes blockchain functionality and sufficient decentralization.
Clarifying regulatory jurisdiction
The act divides oversight by function:
The CFTC gains primary authority over digital commodity transactions, particularly in secondary and spot markets and on trading platforms.
The SEC retains authority over primary offerings, investor protections, required disclosures and initial sales.
The bill also encourages joint rulemaking in overlapping areas such as disclosures.
Establishing consistent disclosures and conduct rules
To safeguard investors and support fair markets, the legislation mandates standardized disclosures from developers and issuers. These would cover blockchain technical details, token economics and key risks, giving market participants comparable information to evaluate projects. Intermediaries such as digital commodity exchanges, brokers and dealers would be subject to registration, reporting and oversight requirements, largely supervised by the CFTC for trading-related activities.
Overall, the CLARITY Act seeks to replace regulatory gray areas with clear guidelines, supporting innovation while maintaining investor protections and market integrity.
Did you know? Crypto market structure debates are influencing how policymakers approach the regulation of AI models, as both involve unclear accountability and fast-moving innovation cycles.
How the CLARITY Act deals with stablecoins
The GENIUS Act, enacted in 2025, established a federal framework specifically for payment stablecoins. It excludes qualifying stablecoins from classification as securities or commodities, provided they meet strict reserve, redemption and oversight requirements.
The CLARITY Act does not override or duplicate this stablecoin regime. Instead, its provisions apply in complementary ways, particularly with respect to rewards tied to stablecoins, related disclosures and their interaction with broader digital asset markets.
The concept of “mature” blockchains
With a mechanism for assets to evolve, the CLARITY Act defines a pathway through which a blockchain can achieve “mature” status by meeting decentralization and other functional criteria.
Once these criteria are met, the associated token shifts toward treatment as a digital commodity under CFTC oversight. This can significantly reduce regulatory requirements, such as registration, provided the project satisfies other applicable conditions.
The concept of mature blockchains reflects the view that regulatory treatment should adapt as networks become more decentralized and widely distributed. It offers projects a clearer progression toward lighter compliance requirements.
Did you know? In past regulatory disputes, courts have sometimes relied on decades-old investment cases to assess crypto tokens, highlighting how existing legal frameworks are being stretched to fit entirely new digital markets.
Ongoing criticisms of the CLARITY Act
While the bill promises clarity, skepticism remains. Critics argue that its definitions may leave gaps, particularly in decentralized finance (DeFi), where projects often do not fit neatly into traditional regulatory models.
Others contend that the investor protections fall short of established securities standards. Additional concerns focus on potential overlaps, such as how the SEC’s anti-fraud authority would apply in areas where the CFTC holds primary jurisdiction, especially for tokens with hybrid characteristics.
Legislative status of the CLARITY Act
The US House of Representatives passed the CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) in July 2025 with bipartisan support. As of January 2026, the bill awaits action in the US Senate, where it has been referred to the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. The legislative process also involves input from the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry on matters related to CFTC oversight.
As of January 2026, Senate committees have held hearings, released discussion drafts, proposed amendments and advanced versions of broader market structure legislation. However, markups have faced delays and revisions amid debate over issues such as stablecoin yields and investor safeguards. Reconciliation between Senate drafts and the House-passed bill remains ongoing, with no final Senate vote yet.
If enacted in a compatible form, the CLARITY Act would represent the first comprehensive US federal framework for digital asset market structure.
Did you know? Some blockchain networks now publish real-time transparency dashboards that show validator concentration, token velocity and governance participation. Regulators sometimes reference these metrics when debating whether a network is “sufficiently decentralized.”
Assessing the CLARITY Act’s blueprint
At its core, the CLARITY Act addresses a persistent challenge in crypto: unclear regulatory boundaries that deter innovation and encourage reactive enforcement rather than proactive compliance.
The act establishes defined asset categories, mandates consistent disclosures and assigns distinct roles to the SEC and CFTC. Its goal is to create a more predictable environment in which market participants understand the applicable rules from the outset.
Legislation, however, is only the starting point. Implementation, rulemaking and potential adjustments will determine the CLARITY Act’s real-world impact. Whether it ultimately delivers the promised clarity will shape US crypto policy and competitiveness for years to come.
Cointelegraph maintains full editorial independence. The selection, commissioning and publication of Features and Magazine content are not influenced by advertisers, partners or commercial relationships.
Europe has moved from drafting to enforcing crypto rules under MiCA, giving companies clear timelines, licensing paths and compliance milestones across all EU member states.
The US still relies on a multi-agency, enforcement-led framework, with major questions about token classification and market structure waiting on new federal legislation.
MiCA’s single-license model allows crypto firms to operate across the EU after approval in one country, encouraging companies to base early expansion strategies in Europe.
Unclear asset classification in the US makes exchanges more cautious about listings and staking, while MiCA’s categories reduce legal uncertainty despite higher compliance costs.
At the global level, two major economic blocs, the US and Europe, are taking very different approaches to crypto regulation.
On one side, the European Union has moved from drafting rules to active enforcement. The Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) has entered into force in phases. It already covers crypto asset service providers and market abuse, while the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) aims to integrate its interim MiCA register into formal regulatory systems.
On the other side, the regulatory framework in the US shows some progress but still lacks a single, full-fledged framework. The regulatory environment remains unclear and has been shaped largely by enforcement actions from multiple agencies.
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) oversee securities, commodities, Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and tax matters, respectively. States also license money transmitters, creating a complex, multi-agency structure.
This article explores how crypto rules have progressed in Europe and the US, how companies build, list and scale across both economic blocs, and the secondary effects of evolving crypto regulation in these regions.
What “Europe moves ahead” means: The MiCA framework
MiCA aims to establish uniform market rules across the EU for crypto assets not already covered by existing financial services law. The framework sets requirements for issuers and for crypto asset service providers such as exchanges, brokers, custodians and other intermediaries. It also includes provisions to address market abuse.
MiCA came into force in stages:
June 29, 2023: MiCA enters into force following publication in the EU Official Journal.
June 30, 2024: MiCA’s framework for asset-referenced tokens and e-money tokens becomes applicable.
Dec. 30, 2024: MiCA’s regime for crypto asset service providers becomes applicable.
Transition window up to July 1, 2026: Providers operating under national regimes before Dec. 30, 2024, may continue operating for a limited period, depending on member-state choices and whether authorization is granted or refused earlier.
This regulatory clarity has allowed firms in Europe to plan timelines, budgets and product roadmaps around defined regulatory milestones.
One of MiCA’s biggest structural effects is the introduction of an EU-wide authorization model for crypto asset service providers (CASPs). Firms can obtain a license in one EU country through its competent authority and then offer services across the EU without needing to relicense in each market.
MiCA covers several functions, including issuance, conduct, authorization, disclosures and service-provider obligations. Europe is also strengthening AML and counter-terrorist financing rules in the context of crypto. The EU’s AML package includes the establishment of the Anti-Money Laundering Authority (AMLA).
Did you know? MiCA is among the first comprehensive frameworks to regulate crypto uniformly across all 27 EU member states, meaning a license obtained in one country allows firms to serve customers across the entire EU without reapplying in each market.
What “the US pauses” means: A work in progress
A pause in the US approach reflects ongoing deliberation over how to define the regulatory perimeter. Regulators are still weighing key questions, including when a token qualifies as a security, when it is treated as a commodity and which agency has primary authority over crypto asset activities.
Market-structure legislation is still in motion
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 aims to establish a federal regulatory structure for digital assets. It categorizes them as either digital commodities or investment contracts. Transactions involving digital commodities would fall under the authority of the CFTC, while those deemed investment contracts would come under the SEC.
If the Clarity Act becomes law, it would introduce requirements for certain digital asset brokers and exchanges to register with the CFTC. It would also establish standards for the custody of client assets, improving transparency and promoting investor protection.
Token classification remains the pressure point
In late 2025, Paul Atkins, chair of the SEC, said the commission was evaluating a “token taxonomy” based on the Howey investment-contract test. The regulator is exploring a classification model for crypto assets and potential exemptions as part of broader market-structure discussions.
This process matters because token classification is not just an academic exercise; it determines whether platforms must register with the SEC, which disclosures apply and whether certain products become too risky to offer in the US market.
The regulatory approach regarding stablecoins becomes clear
The GENIUS Act in the US establishes a federal framework for payment stablecoins, focusing on issuer oversight, reserve backing and consumer protections. It sets standards for who can issue stablecoins, how reserves must be held and disclosed, and how redemption rights should operate.
The law also limits misleading claims about government backing and clarifies supervisory roles for bank and non-bank issuers. It aims to make stablecoins safer for everyday payments while supporting regulated innovation.
Did you know? Paul Atkins has been closely involved in crypto policy debates through roles such as co-chair of the Token Alliance. He has advocated clearer token classifications and regulatory exemptions to support blockchain startups.
How companies build, list and scale in the US and Europe
Europe has established clear regulatory guidelines, while the US is still debating the perimeter of its crypto regulation. Crypto firms are responding in predictable ways.
Licensing strategies diverge: MiCA’s authorization structure encourages firms to choose an EU regulatory “home base” and scale outward. Companies often secure EU licenses first for regulatory certainty and consider US expansion later.
Listing policies grow more conservative in the US: Uncertainty around crypto asset classification makes exchanges and brokers more cautious. When it is unclear whether an asset will be treated as a security or a commodity, firms may limit listings or restrict features such as staking. By contrast, MiCA lays out clearer categories and disclosure requirements. While this increases compliance costs, it reduces asset classification risk.
Stablecoin availability may not converge as users expect: While both Europe and the US regulate stablecoins, their compliance frameworks differ. Firms’ decisions on building, listing and scaling influence which stablecoins are prioritized, how reserves are structured and how distribution partnerships with banks, fintechs and exchanges are negotiated.
Companies want a single rulebook: Large institutions such as banks, asset managers and public companies prefer environments with stable and predictable rules. Europe’s single rulebook can be attractive for crypto firms. While the US offers deep capital markets, companies still need clarity around asset classification and registration pathways.
Did you know? Crypto licensing often covers not just exchanges, but also custody, brokerage, staking facilitation and token issuance. This means companies must design products around what their specific authorization legally permits them to offer.
Secondary effects of crypto regulations in Europe and the US
As Europe has put stable crypto regulation in place under MiCA and the US continues working on its regulatory perimeter, the impact goes beyond compliance checklists:
Liquidity pools can fragment: EU-regulated venues may attract flows from firms seeking clearer authorization frameworks. US venues, meanwhile, may remain deep but more selective in what they can list and how products are structured.
Compliance costs reshape competition: Large firms can spread the cost of meeting MiCA and AML requirements across their businesses. Smaller companies may need to merge, find partners or exit certain markets due to higher compliance costs.
More regulated on-ramps: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has outlined steps related to listed spot crypto products potentially trading on federally regulated markets.
While these outcomes are not guaranteed, they illustrate how crypto enterprises may operate differently across Europe and the US as regulatory frameworks evolve.
Cointelegraph maintains full editorial independence. The selection, commissioning and publication of Features and Magazine content are not influenced by advertisers, partners or commercial relationships.
While specific analyst predictions for the current week are limited, recent forecasts from earlier this January provide insight into Solana’s potential trajectory. According to Rongchai Wang’s analysis from January 14, 2026, “If bullish momentum builds from current consolidation levels, SOL could target the $160–$180 range over the course of January 2026.”
James Ding’s January 15 assessment noted that “Solana shows bullish momentum above key moving averages with analyst targets ranging from $153 to $480 in 2026.” Additionally, Rebeca Moen’s earlier January analysis highlighted that “Technical analysis reveals key resistance at $142 could unlock 8% upside potential within weeks.”
According to on-chain data platforms, Solana’s current positioning near lower Bollinger Band levels suggests potential oversold conditions that could present buying opportunities for patient investors.
SOL Technical Analysis Breakdown
Solana’s current technical picture presents a mixed outlook. Trading at $123.77, SOL sits below its key moving averages, with the 20-day SMA at $135.05 acting as immediate resistance. The RSI reading of 40.28 places SOL in neutral territory, suggesting neither extreme oversold nor overbought conditions.
The MACD histogram at 0.0000 indicates bearish momentum has stalled, potentially setting up for a reversal. Solana’s position at 0.14 on the Bollinger Bands scale (where 0 represents the lower band and 1 the upper band) suggests the token is trading near significant support levels at $119.54.
Key resistance levels emerge at $127.68 (immediate) and $131.58 (strong), while support rests at $118.51 and $113.24. The daily ATR of $6.17 indicates moderate volatility, providing traders with clear risk parameters.
Solana Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
In a bullish scenario, SOL price prediction models point to a recovery toward $135-$150. A break above the immediate resistance at $127.68 could trigger momentum toward the 20-day moving average at $135.05. Sustained buying pressure beyond this level opens the path to $142-$150, aligning with earlier analyst forecasts.
Technical confirmation would come from RSI breaking above 50 and MACD turning positive. Volume expansion above the recent average of $631 million would support this Solana forecast.
Bearish Scenario
Should bearish pressure persist, SOL could test the lower Bollinger Band support at $119.54. A breakdown below this level targets the strong support zone at $113.24, representing potential downside of 8-10% from current levels.
Risk factors include broader crypto market weakness, continued institutional selling pressure, and failure to reclaim key moving averages within the next week.
Should You Buy SOL? Entry Strategy
For investors considering SOL positions, current levels near $123-$124 offer a reasonable risk-reward setup. Conservative buyers might wait for a test of support at $118.51 before entering, while aggressive traders could accumulate on any dips below $120.
Stop-loss levels should be placed below $113.24 to limit downside risk. Target profit-taking could begin at $135 with partial exits, holding core positions for the $150+ targets outlined in analyst forecasts.
Risk management remains crucial given SOL’s daily volatility range of approximately $6.17. Position sizing should account for this inherent price fluctuation.
Conclusion
This SOL price prediction suggests cautious optimism for Solana’s near-term prospects. While current technical indicators show mixed signals, the proximity to key support levels and analyst targets in the $135-$150 range provide a constructive backdrop for patient investors.
The Solana forecast remains dependent on broader market conditions and the token’s ability to reclaim moving average support. With a 60% confidence level, SOL appears positioned for a recovery toward $135 within the next 2-4 weeks, provided key support levels hold.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are speculative and involve significant risk. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
Cardano (ADA) trades at $0.35 with mixed signals. Technical analysis suggests potential move to $0.43 range, but bearish momentum requires careful positioning.
Cardano (ADA) is trading at $0.35 as of January 26, 2026, down 0.77% in the last 24 hours. With technical indicators showing mixed signals and analyst forecasts pointing toward gradual recovery, this ADA price prediction examines the key levels and scenarios for the coming weeks.
While specific analyst predictions from crypto Twitter are limited in the past 24 hours, recent forecasting platforms provide insight into ADA’s trajectory. According to CoinStats analysis from January 24, 2026, “Cardano’s January 2026 forecast is expected to be $0.40-$0.45, averaging $0.43, driven by steady network development, including smart contract enhancements and scaling upgrades.”
CoinCodex projected that “over the next five days, Cardano will reach the highest price of $0.3624 on Jan 25, 2026, which would represent 2.98% growth compared to the current price.” However, this target appears modest given current price action.
On-chain metrics from major data platforms suggest network activity remains steady, though trading volume has moderated to $48.4 million on Binance spot markets.
ADA Technical Analysis Breakdown
The current technical picture for Cardano presents a mixed outlook. The RSI reading of 40.18 sits in neutral territory, neither overbought nor oversold, suggesting consolidation rather than strong directional momentum.
Moving Average Analysis: ADA trades below most key moving averages, with the 7-day SMA at $0.35 matching the current price. The 20-day and 50-day SMAs both sit at $0.38, creating a resistance cluster. Most concerning is the 200-day SMA at $0.63, indicating ADA remains in a longer-term downtrend.
Momentum Indicators: The MACD histogram shows 0.0000, indicating bearish momentum has stalled but hasn’t reversed. The Stochastic oscillator at 16.49 (%K) suggests oversold conditions that could support a bounce.
Bollinger Bands: With a %B position of 0.14, ADA trades near the lower Bollinger Band at $0.34, while the upper band sits at $0.42. This positioning often precedes mean reversion moves toward the middle band ($0.38).
Cardano Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
In an optimistic scenario, ADA could target the analyst forecast range of $0.40-$0.45. Key technical confirmation would come from breaking above the immediate resistance cluster at $0.36-$0.38, particularly the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.
A sustained move above $0.38 could trigger momentum toward the upper Bollinger Band at $0.42, aligning with the bullish breakout level. The Cardano forecast becomes more compelling if RSI can push above 50 and MACD turns positive.
Bearish Scenario
The bear case focuses on the failure to reclaim $0.36-$0.37 resistance. A break below the current support at $0.34 could accelerate selling toward the strong support zone at $0.32.
Given the 200-day SMA remains far above current levels at $0.63, any sustained recovery faces significant overhead resistance. Trading volume of $48.4 million, while decent, lacks the conviction typical of major trend reversals.
Should You Buy ADA? Entry Strategy
Based on the technical setup, a layered entry strategy appears prudent. Consider initial positions near current levels ($0.35) with additional accumulation on any dips toward $0.32-$0.34 support.
Risk Management: Given the bearish longer-term trend, position sizing should remain modest. The ADA price prediction becomes more favorable only above $0.38.
Conclusion
This ADA price prediction suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for February, with potential targets in the $0.40-$0.45 range supported by analyst forecasts. However, technical indicators show consolidation rather than strong bullish momentum.
The Cardano forecast depends heavily on breaking above the $0.36-$0.38 resistance cluster. Until this occurs, ADA remains range-bound with downside risks to $0.32 support.
Confidence Level: Moderate (65%) for reaching $0.40-$0.43 by February, contingent on broader crypto market stability.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions involve significant risk and uncertainty. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest public Bitcoin holder, disclosed fresh BTC purchases as prices slid during a broader market sell-off.
Strategy acquired 2,932 Bitcoin (BTC) for $264.1 million last week, according to a US Securities and Exchange Commission filing on Monday.
The acquisitions were made at an average price of $90,061 per BTC, with Bitcoin starting the week above $93,000 and briefly tumbling below $87,000, according to CoinGecko.
The purchase brought Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings to 712,647 BTC, purchased for about $54.19 billion at an average price of $76,037 per coin.
Strategy’s January purchases exceed the last five months combined
Strategy’s latest Bitcoin purchase was notably smaller than its two earlier January buys, including the 22,305 BTC acquisition announced last week and a 13,627 BTC purchase the week before, which together accounted for the bulk of its recent accumulation.
So far this month, Strategy has acquired about 40,100 BTC, exceeding its combined purchases over the previous five months from August to December 2025, highlighting a sharp acceleration in buying activity since the start of the year.
Details from Strategy’s latest Bitcoin acquisition. Source: SEC
The buy comes as Bitcoin has fallen more than 6% from recent highs, highlighting Strategy’s preference to purchase smaller amounts of BTC in periods of market weakness.
Strategy’s latest Bitcoin acquisition was largely funded with proceeds of selling its Common A shares (MSTR).
According to the SEC filing, the company sold around 1.7 million MSTR last week, generating $257 million. Additionally, Strategy sold 70,201 shares of Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock (STRC), netting $7 million.
Details on Strategy’s MSTR and STRC sales last week. Source: SEC
At the time of writing, Strategy (MSTR) shares traded at around $163, down 12% from a January high of $185, according to TradingView data.
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Bitcoin (BTC) extended its weakness into the low-liquidity weekend trading session, with BTC slipping to a five-week low of $86,000 on Sunday. The cryptocurrency could potentially retest its macro low of $66,000 over the coming weeks, a key support level from November 2024.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin dropped below $87,000 on Sunday as its momentum weakened.
The Coinbase Premium hit a 12-month low, reflecting strong US spot Bitcoin selling pressure.
Bitcoin’s bearish setup targets a $66,800 BTC price.
Bitcoin faces stronger selling pressure in the US
The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price difference between BTC on Coinbase and Binance, flipped red in mid-December 2025, dropping as low as -0.17. The last time the index was this low was in December 2024.
Even during short-term rebounds, BTC trades at a steady discount on Coinbase versus other major exchanges. The index has stayed negative for more than five weeks now (see the chart below).
“The Coinbase Premium continues to drop sharply and widen, indicating significantly stronger BTC selling pressure on Coinbase compared to other exchanges,” derivatives data provider CoinGlass said in an X post on Monday.
The Coinbase Premium Index is “firmly below zero, showing continued sell pressure from U.S. spot flows,” CryptoQuant analyst TeddyVision said in a recent QuickTake analysis.
Historically, a prolonged negative Coinbase Premium has been associated with “capital moving away from US exchanges, and little evidence of aggressive dip-buying by long-term holders,” the analyst said, adding:
“Until the premium stabilizes and turns positive, the upside remains fragile.”
When the index stayed predominantly negative between Dec. 18, 2024 and Jan. 5, 2025, it was accompanied by an 18% price drop over the same period.
Similarly, the index stayed negative between February 2025 and April 2025, leading to a 32% BTC price drop to $74,500 on April 7, 2025, from its previous all-time high of $109,000.
If US spot demand continues to fade, market participants may see a similar drawdown in BTC price over the coming weeks or months.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt flagged a “sell signal” after the BTC/USD pair confirmed a bearish technical pattern.
“Yet another sell signal in Bitcoin as a bear channel has been completed,” Brandt said in an X post on Monday.
Brandt’s chart points to more downside risk if the price does not reclaim $93,000 level as support.
“The price needs to reclaim $93K to negate.”
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Peter Brandt
The measured target of the pattern, calculated by adding the height of the initial drop to the breakout point at $90,000, is $66,800, representing a 22% decline from the current price. This level also roughly aligns with previous BTC price highs from 2021 and 2024.
As Cointelegraph reported, the area between $80,000 and $84,000 remains a key support zone for Bitcoin, and holding it is crucial to avoiding further losses.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
