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    AAVE Price Prediction: Oversold DeFi Token Eyes $75 Technical Bounce From $61 Support

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    AAVE Price Prediction: Oversold DeFi Token Eyes Technical Bounce From Support


    Tony Kim
    Jun 10, 2026 09:03

    AAVE trades at severely oversold levels with RSI at 21, setting up a potential technical bounce toward $75 resistance. Current positioning suggests a short-term recovery rather than sustained bulli…

    The Immediate Setup

    AAVE is experiencing intense selling pressure, trading at $61.03 after a -2.90% daily decline that has driven the RSI down to a severely oversold 21.26. The price action sits just above the lower Bollinger Band at $56.26 and trades nearly 51% below the 200-day moving average at $124.92. This level of momentum exhaustion typically creates conditions for technical bounces as selling pressure becomes unsustainable.

    The derivatives market reveals an interesting disconnect – retail traders maintain a 56.8% long bias while institutional positioning shows an even stronger 63.5% bullish stance. This divergence between price action and trader sentiment creates potential for either a sharp recovery or deeper capitulation if critical support levels fail.

    Technical Structure Analysis

    AAVE is defending crucial support in the $57-60 zone where the lower Bollinger Band intersects with previous consolidation areas. The immediate resistance barrier sits at $62.74, but the primary technical target centers around the 20-day EMA at $75.77. Blockchain.news data shows this level represents the first significant momentum shift opportunity in recent weeks.

    Every major moving average from the 7-day at $63.56 through the 200-day at $124.92 currently acts as overhead resistance, creating multiple hurdles for any upward movement. The MACD indicator sits deep in negative territory at -7.73 with a flat histogram, confirming momentum remains completely stalled at these levels.

    Market Positioning Reality

    The on-chain metrics paint a picture of balanced but cautious market conditions. Funding rates hover near neutral at -0.0002% while order flow maintains equilibrium with a 1.05 buy/sell ratio. This data suggests the current setup favors a technical bounce rather than explosive upside movement.

    The institutional outlook remains measured, with algorithmic models pricing in gradual recovery patterns rather than parabolic moves. Blockchain.news analysis indicates the market is positioning for controlled upside rather than the dramatic reversals often anticipated during oversold conditions.

    Trade Execution Framework

    The tactical approach centers on playing the oversold bounce toward the $75-80 resistance zone where the 20-day EMA and previous support-turned-resistance converge. Entry opportunities exist between $59-62 with protective stops below the $57 breakdown level. The target represents a 20-25% technical rebound based on current market structure.

    For swing positioning, invalidation occurs on a volume-supported break below $57.98, which would expose significantly lower price levels. Profit-taking becomes appropriate in the $73-77 zone where multiple moving averages will likely provide resistance. The current setup rewards patience and disciplined risk management rather than aggressive position sizing.

    The path forward depends on AAVE’s ability to reclaim and hold above the $75-80 zone with sustained volume. Until that occurs, the focus remains on technical bounces within the established downtrend rather than anticipating a full trend reversal.

    Blockchain.news Crypto Market

    Image source: Shutterstock



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    BTC Price Nears $62,000 as Bitcoin Bear Market Support Failures Continue

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    BTC Price Nears ,000 as Bitcoin Bear Market Support Failures Continue

    Bitcoin (BTC) hit week-to-date lows at Tuesday’s Wall Street open as analysis put $65,000 as bulls’ level to beat.

    Key points:

    • Bitcoin needs to revisit $65,000 for bulls to take charge, says new BTC price analysis.
    • Bear market history continues to play out as BTC/USD loses key supports.
    • Iran peace hopes see oil fall below $88 for the first time this month.

    Bitcoin price copies bear-market history with support losses

    Data from TradingView tracked 1.2% BTC price downside on the day as sell-side pressure returned ahead of key US inflation data.

    A double rejection at $64,200 put BTC/USD on course for another test of the key $60,000 support level.

    BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

    Commenting, trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe said that for bulls to gain the upper hand, they would need to crack $65,000.

    “Bitcoin is stalling beneath $65K as breaking that level would trigger a strong run to $72-74K,” he wrote in one of his latest posts on X. 

    “The $65K support level was the previous level of support after the crash early in February and is now acting as the resistance to break through.”

    BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

    Van de Poppe called into question the validity of Bitcoin’s latest macro lows, which took the market to $59,100 last week.

    “I don’t think it will take long before the markets will be doing this, as the recent selloff was relatively irrational,” he added.

    In an update on the bear market, trader and analyst Rekt Capital flagged two more key similarities between current BTC price action and the road to previous cycle lows.

    BTC/USD, he noted, had lost both its 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) and the support of a triangle construction — just like in 2018 and 2022.

    “Now Bitcoin needs to fully confirm this breakdown to enter additional Bearish Acceleration to the downside,” he told X followers.

    BTC/USD one-month chart with 21, 50 EMA. Source: Rekt Capital/X

    Oil falls to June lows on new Iran peace momentum

    Bitcoin once again diverged from US stocks on the day, heading lower while both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index opened up by nearly 1%.

    Related: Bitcoin ‘normal’ 4-year cycle puts focus on $53K low before 2028 BTC price high

    S&P 500 one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

    This helped alleviate an initial drop at the start of the week after Asian markets came under pressure from a tech-stock rout.

    Oil prices, meanwhile, also fell as hopes of a US-Iran peace deal steadily reemerged.

    “It’ll be a total victory,” US President Donald Trump said in a telerally for Republican Senator Lindsey Graham on Monday, quoted by Al Jazeera and others. 

    “It’ll happen very soon, and oil prices will come tumbling down.”

    CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

    WTI crude dropped under $88 per barrel, reaching its lowest level since May 29.

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    Privacy Push Accelerates as StarkWare and Sui Launch Compliance-Ready Confidential Transfers

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    Privacy Push Accelerates as StarkWare and Sui Launch Compliance-Ready Confidential Transfers

    StarkWare and Sui launched new privacy features this week that allow users to conceal transaction data without fully sacrificing auditability or regulatory oversight.

    StarkWare said Tuesday that it launched STRK20, a privacy framework for ERC-20 tokens on Starknet that allows users to shield balances and transaction data while providing mechanisms for disclosure under certain circumstances.

    Eli Ben-Sasson, co-founder and CEO of StarkWare, told Cointelegraph that “compliance-ready” does not mean STRK20 itself determines legal compliance or guarantees regulatory approval. He said the framework is built around a risk-based model in which privacy is conditional rather than absolute, with screening applied at entry into the shielded pool and viewing-key-based disclosure available under lawful request.

    Separately, Sui launched a public beta for confidential transfers, a feature that conceals transaction amounts while allowing authorized parties to access information when required for auditing or compliance purposes.

    The launches reflect a broader shift in crypto privacy away from complete anonymity and toward models favored by institutions that incorporate audit and disclosure mechanisms.

    Sui launches confidential transfers. Source: Sui

    Compliance shift in privacy systems

    In recent weeks, privacy-focused projects have been forced to address questions around both oversight and reliability.

    Zama, a blockchain privacy project, said on June 2 that it would accelerate its compliance roadmap. The announcement came after a court-ordered freeze of about $12.5 million in USDC held in its confidential USDC wrapper, which was later lifted following resolution of the underlying legal request.

    The project subsequently highlighted its disclosure mechanisms and approach to regulatory coordination for encrypted transactions.

    Related: Canton, ZKsync clash over how blockchains enforce rules

    The broader push also comes amid renewed scrutiny of one of the crypto industry’s most prominent privacy projects after Zcash disclosed a bug that raised concerns that counterfeit tokens could have been created undetected.

    Zcash developers said the vulnerability was addressed through an emergency network upgrade completed in early June, with no confirmed evidence of exploitation, though the nature of shielded pools makes it difficult to fully reconstruct transaction history after vulnerabilities are disclosed.

    Market Moves: Why is Ethereum Foundation selling? BTC futures warning signs

    Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

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    AAVE Price Prediction: $58 Support Test Before $75 Recovery Target

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    AAVE Price Prediction: Oversold DeFi Token Eyes Technical Bounce From Support


    James Ding
    Jun 09, 2026 08:46

    AAVE trades at $62.98 with RSI hitting 22.71 oversold levels, setting up a potential drop to $58 support before targeting a recovery bounce toward $75 resistance.

    Technical Breakdown at Critical Juncture

    AAVE has declined to $62.98, marking a significant oversold condition with the RSI dropping to 22.71 – territory that historically precedes reversal attempts. The momentum oscillators show exhaustion signals as the MACD histogram flattens near zero, while the token trades within a compressed daily range of $61.62 to $65.12.

    Volume on Binance spot has decreased to $8.6 million, suggesting selling pressure may be diminishing as fewer participants remain willing to dump at these depressed levels. The Bollinger Band position shows AAVE hugging the lower band at $58.32 with a %B reading of 0.12, indicating severe oversold compression that often precedes volatile moves in either direction. Blockchain.news technical analysis suggests this setup warrants close monitoring for potential reversal signals.

    Critical Support and Resistance Zones

    The immediate support structure centers around $61.36, but the more significant test lies at $59.74 – a level that has provided multiple bounces over recent weeks. Below that, the $58.20 zone represents a critical support cluster that could determine whether AAVE continues its decline or begins a recovery phase.

    Resistance begins at the $64.86-$66.74 range, where the 7-day SMA sits at $65.59. Above this zone, the 20-day SMA at $77.17 creates a substantial gap that would likely act as a strong magnet during any sustained recovery. A break above $67 could accelerate momentum toward the $75+ territory where technical projections suggest the next major resistance cluster forms.

    Market Positioning and Sentiment Analysis

    Current positioning data reveals an interesting divergence between retail and institutional behavior. Retail traders maintain a 57.5% long bias, while top traders show 64.6% long positioning, suggesting accumulation at these reduced price levels. The taker buy/sell ratio of 0.76 indicates continued selling pressure, though this often marks late-stage capitulation phases.

    Open interest stands at $41.3 million with modest 1.29% growth, indicating that most leveraged positions have already been liquidated during the recent decline. The negative funding rate of -0.0050% actually provides a small advantage for long positions, as shorts pay longs in this environment. Blockchain.news market analysis shows these conditions frequently coincide with reversal setups when combined with oversold technical readings.

    Strategic Price Targets and Risk Management

    The current setup presents a high-risk, high-reward scenario for contrarian traders. Initial entry consideration around $59.50-$61.00 targets the key support zone, while more conservative approaches might wait for confirmation above $64 with accompanying volume expansion.

    Risk management becomes critical at these levels, with a definitive break below $58.20 invalidating the bounce thesis and potentially targeting deeper corrections. Profit-taking levels are structured in phases: initial resistance at $68-$70 representing approximately 15% upside from current levels, followed by the $75-$77 zone aligning with moving average resistance, and extended targets near $82-$85 if momentum sustains through multiple resistance layers.

    The combination of oversold technicals, reduced selling volume, and institutional accumulation signals creates conditions that historically favor recovery attempts, though Blockchain.news emphasizes that cryptocurrency markets can remain oversold longer than traditional assets during severe downtrends.

    Blockchain.news Crypto Market

    Image source: Shutterstock



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    UK FCA Proposes 10% Crypto Cap for Retail Funds

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    UK FCA Proposes 10% Crypto Cap for Retail Funds


    Darius Baruo
    Jun 09, 2026 04:38

    The UK FCA proposes allowing retail funds to allocate up to 10% to crypto, balancing market innovation with investor protection.

    The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has proposed allowing retail-focused investment funds to allocate up to 10% of their portfolios to crypto exchange-traded notes (ETNs), marking a cautious step forward in integrating crypto within traditional financial products. The proposal, outlined in a consultation paper published Friday, aims to close a regulatory gap while balancing investor protection and market innovation. The consultation runs until July 13, 2026.

    This move builds on the FCA’s August 2025 decision to lift its ban on retail investors trading crypto ETNs, aligning the UK’s approach with other jurisdictions. The FCA notes that the proposed 10% cap would serve as a conservative restriction, ensuring that funds marketed to retail consumers remain consistent with their disclosed objectives and risk profiles. The regulator emphasized, however, that it does not consider significant exposure to crypto appropriate for retail funds, citing the speculative nature of the underlying assets.

    The proposal targets authorized retail funds, including UCITS (Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) and certain non-UCITS funds. However, unregulated or qualified investor schemes—typically marketed to institutional or high-net-worth clients—would face no such caps but remain off-limits to retail investors. The FCA is also seeking feedback on whether long-term asset funds, such as those focused on property, should be excluded from crypto investments altogether, questioning the compatibility with their stated objectives.

    This consultation is part of the UK’s broader effort to establish itself as a regulated yet innovation-friendly crypto hub. Since 2023, the UK has been rolling out a phased regulatory framework for cryptoassets, following the passage of the Financial Services and Markets Act. The framework encompasses trading, custody, stablecoins, and promotions, with measures like the ‘Travel Rule’ for anti-money laundering compliance already in place. Notably, the FCA has been actively refining rules for stablecoins and tokenized assets, including consultations on custody requirements and market disclosures, as recently as May 2025.

    For crypto market participants, the FCA’s cautious approach underscores both opportunities and limitations. A 10% allocation cap provides a foothold for crypto products within retail portfolios, potentially broadening institutional inflows into the asset class via regulated channels. However, the restrictions reflect the FCA’s wariness of speculative risks, signaling that crypto’s path to mainstream acceptance in the UK will likely remain measured and tightly controlled.

    The UK’s evolving regulatory landscape comes at a time when global markets are scrutinizing the integration of crypto within traditional finance. The Bank of England recently reconsidered its proposed rules for stablecoins after industry backlash, and the FCA introduced guidelines to facilitate tokenized funds. Yet, these moves coexist with strict consumer protection measures, such as the October 2023 financial promotions regime requiring FCA approval for marketing crypto to UK consumers.

    Market stakeholders have until mid-July to provide feedback on the FCA’s latest proposal. Whether the 10% cap will strike the right balance between fostering innovation and safeguarding retail investors remains to be seen, but it’s clear that the UK is committed to shaping a regulated and structured crypto market.

    Image source: Shutterstock



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    Bitcoin Takes Pressure Off $60,000 as Bear Market Roadmap Continues

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    Bitcoin Takes Pressure Off ,000 as Bear Market Roadmap Continues

    Bitcoin (BTC) approached intraday highs ahead of Monday’s Wall Street open, with $60,000 holding as key support.

    Key points:

    • Bitcoin avoids another retest of $60,000 as Wall Street returns, but bear-market standards call for lower.
    • A rebound to $64,000 is being watched for signs that worse is yet to come.
    • Macro headwinds multiply as the Japanese yen reenters the picture.

    Bitcoin price decides on ranging versus breakdown

    Data from TradingView showed BTC price selling pressure easing after the weekly close — Bitcoin’s lowest since October 2024.

    BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

    Attention focused on the $60,000 mark amid a broad lack of bullish sentiment on both shorter and longer time frames.

    “Holding the $60K low and I will just assume this is a range for now,” trader Daan Crypto Trades forecast in his latest analysis on X. 

    “I can easily see us trade in this $60K-$80K region for quite a while. Just need to not turn bearish at the range low and not get too excited at the range high region.”

    BTC/USDT perpetual contract one-day chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

    An accompanying chart showed Bitcoin’s 200-day simple moving average (SMA) now acting as low-time-frame resistance.

    Among those seeing bearish continuation was trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who told X followers to watch for a failed rebound and subsequent weakening of support at $60,000.

    “Bitcoin has now tagged the 200-week SMA for the first time in this Bear Cycle,” he added about another important bear-market feature late last week. 

    “Deviating below it has historically been the key to building out a Bear Market bottom formation.”

    BTC/USD two-week chart with 200-week SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

    Bitcoin analysis says macro “tapping it on the shoulder”

    On the macro front, analysis pointed to several key headwinds complicating the picture for crypto and risk assets.

    Related: BTC price bottom not due until Q4? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

    These were interest-rate plan expectations from the US Federal Reserve, the Japanese yen passing 160 per dollar and the US-Iran war.

    “Taken together, these are not exactly ideal conditions for high-beta assets,” trading resource QCP Capital wrote in its latest Market Color bulletin.

    “BTC is effectively being asked to perform while oil, rates, FX and geopolitics are all tapping it on the shoulder.”

    USD/JPY one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

    QCP argued that given Asia equities weakness on Monday, Bitcoin’s next moves would be telling when it comes to its recent divergence from stocks.

    “If crypto can hold while equities digest the AI-led correction, the market may start to rebuild a cleaner standalone narrative. If not, the apparent decoupling may prove to be less independence and more delayed reaction,” it suggested.

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    South Korea Police Reportedly Raid Bithumb in Lawmaker Hiring Influence Probe

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    South Korea Police Reportedly Raid Bithumb in Lawmaker Hiring Influence Probe

    South Korean police have reportedly raided Bithumb as part of an investigation into alleged nepotism involving independent lawmaker Kim Byung-gi.

    Kim allegedly attempted to influence employment opportunities for his son at multiple crypto firms, including Bithumb and Dunamu, the operator of rival exchange Upbit, according to a Monday report by News1.

    Kim’s son joined Bithumb in January 2025 and worked there for about six months, the local outlet reported. Authorities are investigating whether any external pressure or preferential treatment influenced the hiring process.

    Hiring favoritism and influence-peddling allegations remain politically sensitive issues in South Korea, where a series of high-profile scandals involving politicians and conglomerates, particularly in hiring and admissions, have fueled public scrutiny over abuse of power and insider networks.

    Probe widens beyond Bithumb hiring allegations

    Police have reportedly questioned Kim several times as they continue investigating whether any criminal conduct occurred in connection with the alleged misuse of his political position.

    The allegations widened after reports revealed that Kim, while serving on the National Assembly’s Political Affairs Committee overseeing the nation’s finance regulator, repeatedly directed questions at Dunamu during proceedings, raising questions over whether he was attempting to support the company where his son was working.

    Bithumb is one of South Korea’s largest exchanges. Source: Bithumb

    Police previously called executives from crypto exchanges in for questioning as witnesses in February, and earlier carried out a separate search and seizure at Bithumb’s headquarters and Bithumb Financial Tower.

    Related: South Korea police probe Polymarket users over illegal gambling claims: Report

    Investigators continued gathering testimony in April by questioning additional individuals connected to Bithumb.

    Kim was also questioned in April over 13 separate allegations, including claims tied to nomination bribery, employment-related favors involving his son and alleged requests connected to a university transfer.

    Authorities have not announced whether further summonses are planned. During his sixth appearance before investigators, Kim said he was confident he would be cleared of wrongdoing.

    Bithumb under regulatory watch

    Bithumb has faced regulatory scrutiny in South Korea over Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and compliance deficiencies, including a $24.5 million fine and a six-month partial suspension order issued in March by financial regulators following inspections in 2025.

    The enforcement action stemmed from findings of Know Your Customer (KYC) and AML shortcomings and included restrictions on certain services, particularly related to onboarding new users, as part of the broader penalty package.

    In late April, a South Korean court temporarily blocked the implementation of that suspension order after Bithumb challenged the regulator’s decision, pausing enforcement while legal proceedings continue.

    Cointelegraph reached out to Bithumb for comment but did not receive a response by publication.

    Asia Express: North Korea denies crypto hacks, Upbit’s bank tests Ripple

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    Yuga Labs Developers Rescue 68 NFTs From Flooring Exploit

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    Yuga Labs Developers Rescue 68 NFTs From Flooring Exploit

    Yuga Labs-affiliated developers rescued 68 non-fungible tokens from Flooring Protocol after an exploit put NFTs from collections including Bored Apes and CryptoPunks at risk.

    Yuga Labs CEO Michael Figge said Monday that the recovered NFTs are now in the company’s custody and will be returned once a solution is finalized.

    Yuga’s pseudonymous vice president of blockchain, 0xQuit, said the recovery covered more than $500,000 worth of NFTs.

    Source: Michael Figge

    Despite the NFT market’s cooldown, some collections still retain high floor prices. CryptoPunks had a floor price of around 32.7 ETH ($54,612), while Bored Ape Yacht Club NFTs sat around 9.16 ETH, according to CoinGecko.

    Flooring Protocol was already winding down

    The incident affected a protocol that had already been winding down parts of its consumer-facing NFT business.

    Floor Protocol said in September 2025 that its Web3 consumer services were entering sunset mode and advised FPv2 token holders to redeem their NFTs and exit fractional positions before Oct. 15, 2025.

    Related: OpenSea postpones SEA token launch, citing ‘challenging’ conditions

    Former CEO FreeLunchCapital said the protocol faced liquidity issues and organizational changes that left parts of the NFT division unmanaged.

    FreeLunchCapital said they had continued providing liquidity and kept some of their own NFT assets on the platform to help users exit positions, adding that those assets became a primary target during the exploit.

    FreeLunchCapital said they are in talks with the parent group behind the management team to regain control of the protocol.

    NFT market remains far below peak levels

    Despite falling sharply from its peak, the NFT market still represents billions of dollars in value. CoinGecko data showed overall NFT market capitalization climbed to around $2 billion in late April and early May before falling back toward $1.4 billion by Monday.

    90-day NFT market capitalization chart. Source: CoinGecko

    NFT Price Floor data showed CryptoPunks and Bored Ape Yacht Club remained the two largest NFT collections by market capitalization.

    CryptoPunks had a market capitalization of about 339,400 ETH (about $560 million), while BAYC stood at around 90,590 ETH ($150 million).

    Magazine: Bitcoin miners are pivoting to AI, so why is the hashrate near ATHs?

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    AAVE Price Prediction: $138 Target in Sharp Focus as Oversold Bounce Meets DeFi Recovery

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    AAVE Price Prediction: Oversold DeFi Token Eyes Technical Bounce From Support


    Felix Pinkston
    Jun 08, 2026 10:45

    AAVE sits at a critical $63 inflection point with RSI at 22.95 screaming oversold while whales maintain 62.9% long positioning despite recent DeFi exploit fears. The gap between current price and a…

    Market Context: Why AAVE is Moving Now

    The DeFi lending giant finds itself trapped between two powerful forces. Trading at $63.28, AAVE has been hammered down from its moving averages, sitting 50% below its 200-day SMA at $125.90. Yet this brutal selloff coincides with what Coingabbar called a complete “recalculation” of DeFi risk profiles after 2026’s most expensive exploit. The market is essentially repricing the entire lending ecosystem, and Blockchain.news has been tracking how institutional money is positioning for the eventual recovery.

    The current price action reflects maximum pessimism, but the derivatives market tells a different story. With funding rates slightly negative at -0.0043%, there’s no euphoric long squeeze building. Instead, we’re seeing controlled accumulation patterns that suggest smart money views current levels as an opportunity rather than a warning.

    Indicator Alignment

    The technicals paint a picture of extreme oversold conditions begging for relief. RSI at 22.95 marks the deepest oversold territory AAVE has seen in months, while the Bollinger Band position of 0.09 shows price hugging the lower band desperately. When momentum indicators reach these extremes, violent bounces become statistically probable rather than just hopeful.

    However, the MACD histogram sitting at flat zero with a deeply negative -7.39 reading suggests any bounce will face immediate resistance. The lack of momentum divergence means bulls need to prove themselves with volume and conviction, not just technical oversold readings. Blockchain.news analysis shows this type of setup typically resolves within 7-10 trading sessions.

    Whales & Analyst Targets

    The smart money positioning reveals fascinating contradictions. Top traders maintain a bullish 1.70 long/short ratio with 62.9% long exposure, yet retail sentiment shows only modest optimism at 56.4% long. This suggests institutional players are accumulating while retail remains cautious – historically a bullish divergence.

    Analyst targets range wildly from CoinCodex’s conservative $66.52 (+9.53%) to Traders Union’s aggressive $138.31 (+125.11%) by July 2026. The massive spread reflects genuine uncertainty about DeFi’s recovery timeline, but the higher target aligns perfectly with historical resistance levels and Fibonacci retracements from AAVE’s previous cycles.

    Strategic Positioning

    The bull case hinges on $65.46 immediate resistance break leading to a rush toward $67.63 strong resistance. Success there opens the path to test the 7-day SMA at $67.09, potentially triggering algorithmic buying as price reclaims short-term moving averages. A sustained move above $70 would likely accelerate toward the $80-85 zone where the 50-day SMA provides the next major test.

    The bear scenario remains equally compelling. Failure to hold $61.10 immediate support opens the door to $58.91 strong support, with no meaningful technical floor until the mid-$50s. Given the ongoing DeFi risk repricing, a break below $58 could trigger panic selling toward $45-50 levels where previous cycle lows provide potential relief.

    Current probabilities favor a 65% chance of testing $70+ within 30 days, contingent on broader crypto market stability and no additional DeFi exploits. The 35% downside scenario would target $55 retest, making current levels either a generational buying opportunity or a value trap depending on execution above $65.46.

    Blockchain.news Crypto Market

    Image source: Shutterstock



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    Bitcoin 2026 Bear Market Needs Months to Spark Capitulation Bottom

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    Bitcoin 2026 Bear Market Needs Months to Spark Capitulation Bottom

    Bitcoin (BTC) threatens to “purge further” as realized losses in the 2026 bear market fail to beat records.

    Key points:

    • Bitcoin realized losses have not yet surpassed the 2022 total despite market cap being higher.
    • History suggests that a fresh round of capitulation should occur before a bear-market bottom appears.
    • Retail investor conviction is still “remarkably high” despite new macro lows.

    Bitcoin bear market bottom may need “a few more months”

    New data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that investor capitulation has not yet matched the levels of the 2022 bear market.

    “Realized losses are calculated in USD, so logic would dictate that with similar behavior, USD losses during bear markets should be increasingly significant given that market capitalization keeps growing,” contributor Darkfost wrote in a post on X.

    Realized losses refer to coins moving onchain at a lower price compared to their previous transaction — a telltale sign that an investor is selling their holdings at a loss.

    In the 2022 bear market, such realized losses hit $211 billion, marking a new record. This year has yet to beat it, despite the Bitcoin market cap being higher in US dollar terms.

    “Today, since the October top, approximately $174B in losses have already been realized,” Darkfost continued.

    Bitcoin bear market realized loss comparison. Source: Darkfost/X

    already differs from past bear markets in terms of
    The result could be that a fresh round of loss-making market exits enters in order for historical patterns to be preserved.

    “This may suggest that the market could purge further, although this remains fairly subjective,” Darkfost concluded. 

    “If the bear market were to extend a few more months, it is possible that we could surpass the 2023 losses, but for now we have not yet reached that level, even though this bear market is already well advanced.”

    Retail optimism suggests that the BTC price floor is not in

    2026 already differs from past bear markets in terms of investor participation.

    Related: Bitcoin needs one more thing to happen to spark BTC price ‘rally:’ Analysis 

    As trader and commentator Ardi notes, retail investors are attempting to catch a falling knife, entering and exiting while the price keeps falling. Institutions, by contrast, have sold relief bounces, offloading supply onto retail.

    “Retail has spent months buying every ‘dip’ the market has given them, thinking the bottom was being handed to them on a silver platter. Mid-sized and institutional participants have spent that same period selling into their hopium,” Ardi explained on Sunday. 

    “The people with the least capital are absorbing supply from the people with the most. That is not usually how major bottoms are built.”

    BTC/USDT one-day char with order-book data. Source: Ardi/X

    Ardi described “remarkably high” conviction among retail traders, which, like realized loss data, casts doubt on current BTC price lows as a reliable bear-market bottom.

    “Until that dynamic changes, it’s difficult to argue that true capitulation has occurred,” he added.

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