Bitcoin (BTC) could reclaim $100,000 as support and rally toward $107,000 in the coming days, driven by a combination of supportive technical and fundamental metrics.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s breakout is gaining traction, backed by bullish technicals and fading selling pressure.
Macro signals lean bullish, with liquidity expansion and divergence between BTC and gold.
Bitcoin confirmed its breakout from a multi-week ascending triangle earlier this week and shifted into a textbook post-breakout retest phase.
After pushing above the pattern’s upper boundary near $95,000, BTC pulled back to retest the former resistance as support before bouncing higher, a move typically associated with valid breakouts rather than false moves.
Holding this reclaimed level keeps the “real breakout” structure intact and preserves the pattern’s measured upside objective near $107,000, derived by adding the triangle’s maximum height to the breakout point, by February.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
At the same time, Bitcoin’s daily chart approached a potential bullish crossover between the 20-day (green) and 50-day (red) exponential moving averages (EMAs).
The last time BTC printed a similar bull cross, the BTC price advanced by roughly 17% over the following month, strengthening the case for trend continuation if the signal is confirmed.
Data tracking UTXOs spent by OG Bitcoin holders, coins dormant for more than five years, showed that distribution into recent local tops had slowed materially.
As of January, the 90-day average of spent outputs peaked near 2,300 BTC earlier in the cycle but later declined toward the 1,000 BTC level, suggesting fewer coins hitting the market.
STXO from OG Bitcoin holders (>5y). Source: CryptoQuant
Earlier in the rally, OG selling had surged to levels well above the previous bull market, reflecting an unusually attractive exit window created by spot ETF demand, deeper liquidity, and institutional participation.
“This suggests that OGs have also slowed down their selling,” said analyst DarkFrost, adding:
“Their selling pressure, which can sometimes be massive, has clearly decreased, and the prevailing trend now seems to lean more toward holding rather than distribution.”
The slowdown in OG selling also aligned with the largest net Bitcoin outflows from exchanges since December 2024.
BTC net transfer volume from/to exchanges. Source: Glassnode
Negative Bitcoin-gold correlation: Bullish for BTC?
Another macro signal aligned with the breakout thesis came from Bitcoin’s historical relationship with gold.
In past instances where BTC’s correlation with gold turned negative, Bitcoin rallied by an average of 56% within roughly two months. The lone exception in May 2021 was driven by exogenous shocks, including China’s mining crackdown and forced deleveraging.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Recent analyst coverage has provided several bullish AAVE price predictions for the coming weeks. According to Caroline Bishop’s analysis from January 10, “AAVE price prediction shows potential rally to $190-$195 range by February 2026, driven by oversold RSI recovery and analyst targets up to $213. Current $165 level offers entry opportunity.”
Joerg Hiller reinforced this outlook on January 11, noting that “Recent analyst forecasts suggest AAVE could rally 18-25% from current levels, with technical indicators showing mixed signals as the token trades at $167.02.”
Most recently, Rebeca Moen’s January 15 analysis stated that “AAVE price prediction shows bullish momentum toward $190-195 by February despite mixed signals. Technical analysis reveals key resistance at $184 with strong support holding.”
While specific analyst predictions are limited beyond these forecasts, on-chain metrics from platforms like Glassnode and CryptoQuant continue to show healthy protocol fundamentals supporting the bullish thesis.
AAVE Technical Analysis Breakdown
AAVE is currently trading at $175.04, representing a 0.63% gain over the past 24 hours. The token has shown resilience, maintaining its position above several key moving averages while approaching critical resistance levels.
The RSI reading of 54.83 indicates AAVE remains in neutral territory, suggesting there’s room for upward movement without entering overbought conditions. This supports the analyst forecasts calling for additional upside in the near term.
The MACD histogram sits at 0.0000, indicating bearish momentum has stalled but hasn’t yet turned bullish. The Bollinger Band position of 0.75 shows AAVE is trading in the upper portion of its recent range, approaching the upper band at $184.75.
Key support levels are well-defined, with immediate support at $169.78 and strong support at $164.51. On the upside, immediate resistance sits at $178.91, with strong resistance at $182.77 – levels that align closely with analyst targets.
Aave Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
The bullish case for AAVE centers on a breakout above the $184.75 Bollinger Band upper resistance. A sustained move above this level would likely trigger the rally toward the $190-195 target range that multiple analysts have identified.
Technical confirmation would come from the RSI moving above 60 and the MACD histogram turning positive. The relatively low daily volatility (ATR of $8.50) suggests any breakout could lead to significant price expansion.
Bearish Scenario
The bearish scenario would unfold if AAVE fails to hold above the $169.78 immediate support level. A break below this point could trigger a decline toward the strong support at $164.51, invalidating the near-term bullish Aave forecast.
Risk factors include broader crypto market weakness and potential profit-taking as the token approaches analyst target zones. The distance from the 200-day SMA at $243.88 also highlights the longer-term downtrend that could reassert itself.
Should You Buy AAVE? Entry Strategy
Based on current technical levels, potential entry points for AAVE include:
The current price around $175 offers a reasonable entry for those targeting the $190-195 range, with a stop-loss below $164.51 to limit downside risk. More conservative traders might wait for a pullback toward the $169-170 support zone.
For breakout traders, a move above $184.75 with volume confirmation could signal the start of the rally toward analyst targets, though this approach carries higher risk.
Position sizing should account for the token’s volatility, and investors should consider the mixed momentum signals when determining their risk tolerance.
Conclusion
The AAVE price prediction outlook appears cautiously optimistic for the coming weeks, with multiple analysts forecasting a move toward $190-195 by February 2026. Current technical indicators support this view, showing AAVE consolidating above key support levels while approaching resistance zones that could trigger the anticipated rally.
However, the mixed momentum signals and broader market conditions warrant careful risk management. While the 18-25% upside potential identified by analysts is attractive, investors should be prepared for volatility and potential setbacks along the way.
This AAVE price prediction is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
The White House is considering withdrawing its support for crypto market structure bill following a similar move from crypto exchange Coinbase, according to Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett, citing a source close to the Trump administration.
In a Sunday post on X, Terrett reported that the White House is furious over Coinbase’s decision to pull its backing for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, describing the move as a “unilateral” action that blindsided administration officials.
“The White House is said to be furious with Coinbase’s “unilateral” action on Wednesday, which it apparently was not notified of in advance, calling it a “rug pull” against the White House and the rest of the industry,” she wrote.
The source added that the administration may fully abandon the bill unless Coinbase returns to negotiations and agrees to a compromise on stablecoin yield provisions that would satisfy banking interests. “This is President Trump’s bill at the end of the day, not Brian Armstrong’s,” the source said, according to Terrett.
White House considers pulling support for crypto bill. Source: Eleanor Terrett
On Wednesday, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said the exchange could not support the Senate Banking Committee draft in its current form, arguing it would do more harm than good. “We’d rather have no bill than a bad bill. Hopefully we can all get to a better draft,” he said.
Armstrong cited several concerns, including what he described as a de facto ban on tokenized equities, broad restrictions on decentralized finance (DeFi) and expanded government access to financial records that he said could undermine user privacy.
He also warned the proposal would weaken the Commodity Futures Trading Commission while concentrating more power with the Securities and Exchange Commission, an agency widely criticized by the crypto industry for its enforcement-heavy approach in recent years.
Another flashpoint is stablecoins. Armstrong said the draft risks “killing rewards” on stablecoins, echoing industry fears that the bill is designed to protect banks from competition. Banking groups have argued that allowing users to earn roughly 5% yields on stablecoins could trigger large-scale deposit outflows from traditional savings accounts.
Many users voiced support for Coinbase’s stance, accusing lawmakers and banks of prioritizing incumbents over innovation. “Then the banks should stop trying to screw everyone over,” Nic Carter, cofounder of Coin Metrics, wrote on X.
Others argued that Coinbase overplayed its hand and should not hold veto power over legislation with industry-wide implications. “Coinbase is not crypto. Coinbase is one exchange in crypto,” one user wrote.
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
The Ethereum ecosystem’s core values of decentralization, privacy and self-sovereignty have been sacrificed in pursuit of mainstream adoption and that trend must stop now, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said.
“2026 is the year that we take back lost ground in terms of self-sovereignty and trustlessness,” Buterin posted to X on Friday:
“In 2026, no longer. Every compromise of values that Ethereum has made up to this point – every moment where you might have been thinking, is it really worth diluting ourselves so much in the name of mainstream adoption – we are making that compromise no longer.”
To reverse that trend, Buterin wants to see improved private payments, lower the barrier to entry for users to run full nodes and decentralized apps that don’t run on centralized servers.
He also wants users to more easily take control of their onchain data and see improved social recovery wallets that protect funds when seed phrases are lost or extracted by an attacker.
“In many of these areas, over the last ten years we have seen serious backsliding in Ethereum,” Buterin said. “Nodes went from easy to run to hard to run. Dapps went from static pages to complicated behemoths that leak all your data to a dozen servers.”
Buterin said upcoming upgrades, including the Kohaku release and the Glamsterdam fork, are expected to address some of these issues.
“It will be a long road […] But it will make Ethereum into an ecosystem that deserves not only its current place in the universe, but a much greater one.”
Buterin wants Ethereum to be self-sustainable
Buterin said earlier this week that Ethereum needs to pass the “walkaway test,” meaning Ethereum becomes self-sustainable without developer influence for decades to come.
“Being able to say ‘Ethereum’s protocol, as it stands today, is cryptographically safe for a hundred years’ is something we should strive to get to as soon as possible,” he said.
Quantum resistance features, more scalable architecture, and a better block-building model that resists centralization pressures were among the main improvements Buterin said Ethereum needs to have to pass the test of time.
Buterin also wants more decentralized stablecoin innovation
Buterin also called for better decentralized stablecoins on Ethereum to truly give people independence from governments and the traditional financial system.
He suggested a stablecoin backed by a diversified basket of assets and currencies, rather than relying solely on one, like the US dollar, so its stability isn’t dependent on a single nation.
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
Bitcoin is attempting to find support near the $94,500 level, signaling a positive sentiment.
Buyers will have to defend the support levels in select major altcoins, or else the recovery may fizzle out.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) shallow pullback is attempting to find support near the $94,500 level, indicating a lack of aggressive selling by the bulls. A positive sign is that BTC’s rally above $97,500 was supported by solid buying by institutional investors since Monday. According to Farside Investors data, spot BTC exchange-traded funds recorded $1.81 billion in net inflows this week.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said in a post on Wednesday that BTC will get its groove back in 2026 as dollar liquidity will expand in 2026. Hayes added that as dollar liquidity rises rapidly, “BTC will follow.”
Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView
While the near-term signals point to a possible rally above the psychological level of $100,000, traders need to be watchful. Daan Crypto Trades said in a post on X that BTC needs to hold the $94,000 region, as a break below it “would not make for a pretty look.”
Will BTC and the major altcoins likely resume their relief rally? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price prediction
BTC pierced the $96,846 resistance on Wednesday, but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. The price slipped back below the breakout level on Thursday.
A minor positive in favor of the bulls is that they have not given up much ground. If the price turns up from the current level and breaks above $97,925, it signals the resumption of the up move. The BTC/USDT pair may rally to $107,500, with a minor stop at $100,000.
This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the Bitcoin price turns down and breaks below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($92,083). The pair may then drop to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($90,127).
Ether price prediction
Ether (ETH) bulls are attempting to hold the price above the resistance line, but the bears continue to exert pressure.
The moving averages are the crucial support to watch out for on the downside. If the price rebounds off the moving averages, the bulls will attempt to drive the ETH/USDT pair to $3,659 and subsequently to $4,000.
Alternatively, a close below the moving averages suggests that the break above the triangle may have been a bull trap. The Ether price may then plunge to the support line. Buyers will attempt to defend the support line as a break below it tilts the advantage in favor of the bears. The pair may then collapse to $2,623.
XRP price prediction
XRP (XRP) turned up from the moving averages on Tuesday, but the bounce fizzled on Wednesday, indicating selling on every minor rally.
The bears will attempt to pull the XRP price below the 50-day SMA ($2.01). If they succeed, it suggests that the XRP/USDT pair may remain inside the descending channel pattern for a while longer.
The bulls will have to kick the price above the downtrend line to signal a potential short-term trend change. The pair may then climb to $2.70. On the downside, a close below the support line may sink the pair toward the Oct. 10 low of $1.25.
BNB price prediction
BNB (BNB) is witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears at the breakout level of $928.
The upsloping 20-day EMA ($903) and the relative strength index (RSI) above the 61 level indicate that the bulls have the upper hand. If the BNB price turns up from $928, it suggests that buyers have flipped the level into support. That enhances the prospects of a rally toward the pattern target of $1,066.
On the contrary, if the price tumbles below the moving averages, it signals that the breakout above the $928 level may have been a bull trap. The BNB/USDT pair may then descend to the uptrend line.
Solana price prediction
Solana (SOL) turned down from the $147 level on Thursday, but a positive sign is that the bulls have not ceded much ground to the bears.
The upsloping 20-day EMA ($137) and the RSI in positive territory suggest that buyers are in control. That increases the likelihood of a break above the $147 resistance. The SOL/USDT pair may then surge toward $172.
Sellers will have to pull the price below the 50-day SMA ($132) to weaken the bullish momentum. The Solana price may then remain inside the $117 to $147 range for a few more days.
Dogecoin price prediction
Dogecoin’s (DOGE) bounce off the moving averages on Tuesday could not reach the overhead resistance at $0.16, signaling a lack of demand at higher levels.
The flattening moving averages and the RSI near the midpoint suggest the DOGE/USDT pair may form a range in the near term. If the Dogecoin price skids below the moving averages, the pair may tumble to $0.13 and then to $0.12.
Buyers will have to shove the price above the $0.16 level to seize control. If they do that, the pair may rally to $0.20. Such a move indicates that the market has rejected the breakdown below $0.13.
Cardano price prediction
Cardano (ADA) returned from the downtrend line on Wednesday, indicating that the bears are active at higher levels.
There is minor support at $0.38, but if the level cracks, the ADA/USDT pair may slide toward $0.33. Buyers are expected to vigorously defend the $0.33 level as a break below it may sink the pair to the Oct. 10 low of $0.27.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the downtrend line. The Cardano price may then surge to the breakdown level of $0.50, where the bears are expected to mount a strong defense.
The pullback is expected to find support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $653 and below that at the 50% retracement level of $608. If the price rebounds off the support, the bulls will again strive to propel the XMR/USDT pair above $800. If they can pull it off, the Monero price may resume its uptrend toward $1,000.
On the contrary, a break and close below the $608 level suggests the bulls are losing their grip. The pair may then slump to the 20-day EMA ($543).
Bitcoin Cash price prediction
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) attempted a rally above the $631 resistance on Thursday, but the bears successfully defended the level.
The 20-day EMA ($613) has started to turn down, and the RSI is in negative territory, indicating a slight edge to the sellers. If the price sustains below the 50-day SMA ($591), the BCH/USDT pair may slump to $563 and then to $518.
Buyers are likely to have other plans. They will attempt to defend the 50-day SMA and swiftly thrust the Bitcoin Cash price above the $631 level. If they manage to do that, the pair may surge to $720.
Chainlink price prediction
Chainlink (LINK) remains stuck inside the $11.61 to $14.98 range, indicating buying near the support and selling close to the resistance.
The moving averages are the crucial support to watch out for on the downside. If the price rebounds off the moving averages, the bulls will make another attempt to drive the LINK/USDT pair above the $14.98 resistance. If they succeed, the Chainlink price may surge toward $17.66.
Instead, if the price skids below the moving averages, it suggests that the pair may extend its stay inside the range for some more time.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Crypto entered 2026 with a familiar dichotomy: The industry is maturing, but its decentralized identity is at risk. Still, following years heavily dominated by speculation, 2025 became the year that pushed builders and investors toward fundamentals and proved that blockchain can support real-world goods, services and infrastructure.
In this week’s episode of Byte-Sized Insight, Cointelegraph explores what that shift looked like on the ground, particularly through the lens of the emerging “machine economy.”
DePIN brings “real-world” crypto closer
Leonard Dorlöchter, co-founder of peaq, argues that 2025 was a turning point in how projects were evaluated.
“Fundamentals started mattering more and more,” he said,
He added that “protocol revenue looked front and center” after an earlier period of memecoin-driven speculation. The push toward fundamentals has been driven partly by DePIN, decentralized physical infrastructure networks, where projects aim to build services that generate measurable revenue.
Dorlöchter said, “We’ve been seeing early revenue, real revenue happening within DePIN,” and added that some networks are already proving “you can build a decentralized network of IoT devices… and channel those back to tokens.”
For builders, the implication is clear: Revenue matters, but so does the type of value being created, especially as the industry pushes toward broader adoption.
The machine economy and onchain coordination
Dorlöchter described the machine economy as “any device, robot or agent autonomously transacting with each other or with humans as well.” He said the past year brought meaningful progress in standardization, including the release of protocols that help agents discover services and interact across systems.
“A lot of the foundational work in terms of standardization has been happening last year,” he said, adding that “it really goes into production right now.” And for Dorlöchter, the stakes go beyond convenience:
“Blockchain technology is the enabling technology that allows us as a global society, to build neutral infrastructure.”
Still, he also emphasized that decentralization must remain foundational even as regulation and mainstream adoption accelerate.
Looking ahead, he expects a rise in autonomous agents transacting onchain:
“Agents will be making money independently… and they will also buy resources independently in order to keep running.”
To hear the complete conversation on Byte-Sized Insight, listen to the full episode on Cointelegraph’s Podcasts page, Apple Podcasts or Spotify. And remember to check out Cointelegraph’s full lineup of other shows!
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
Investment bank Jefferies’ longtime “Greed & Fear” strategist Christopher Wood has reportedly eliminated Bitcoin from his flagship model portfolio, citing mounting concerns that advances in quantum computing may undermine the cryptocurrency’s long-term security.
According to a report by Bloomberg, Wood said in the latest edition of his Greed & Fear newsletter, that the 10% Bitcoin (BTC) allocation he first added in late 2020 has been replaced by a split position in physical gold and gold mining stocks.
He argued that quantum breakthroughs would weaken Bitcoin’s claim to be a dependable store of value for pension‑style investors.
Wood added that concern over quantum risk is rising among long-term, institutional investors, warning that some capital allocators now question Bitcoin’s store of value case if quantum timelines compress.
He said he feared that “cryptographically relevant” machines arriving sooner than expected could let attackers derive private keys from exposed public keys, weakening the cryptography underpinning Bitcoin balances and mining rewards and, in the extreme, challenging its role as “digital gold” for pension‑style portfolios.
Quantum risk enters mainstream portfolios
The quantum issue has been discussed for years among developers and commentators, but Wood’s move shows how it’s now influencing mainstream asset allocation decisions at major brokerage and research houses.
Castle Island Ventures partner and Bitcoin advocate Nic Carter has discussed the quantum issue at length, warning in December that “capital is concerned and looking for a solution” on quantum risk, even though many developers, including Blockstream CEO Adam Back, remain skeptical that it is a near‑term problem.
Investors are concerned about quantum computing. Source: Nic Carter
Macro analyst Luke Gromen has also turned cautious on Bitcoin in recent months, citing macro and technological uncertainties, including quantum computing risk, as reasons to favor increasing gold exposure versus BTC on a multi‑cycle view.
Studies from firms such as EY and PwC similarly flag quantum computing as a significant emerging threat to traditional public key cryptography, warning that financial systems, including those supporting digital assets, need to prepare migration paths to quantum-resistant alternatives.
Bitcoin developers and core infrastructure builders push back on the idea that quantum progress is an immediate threat.
Blockstream CEO Adam Back has repeatedly argued that breaking Bitcoin’s current signature schemes is likely 20–40 years away and that the network would have ample time to migrate to post‑quantum signature algorithms and better key management practices well before any real‑world break becomes feasible.
Other analysts, including an a16z researcher, similarly conclude that the probability of a “cryptographically relevant” quantum computer capable of breaking today’s public key systems emerging this decade is low.
They say that the bigger near‑term risks come from implementation bugs, governance, and “harvest now, decrypt later” attacks on encrypted data rather than immediate attacks on live blockchain signatures.
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
Glassnode expands from 10 to 40 options metrics, adding Deribit, OKX, Bybit data plus new gamma exposure and premium flow tools for BTC, ETH, SOL trading.
Glassnode has transformed from an on-chain analytics provider into a full-stack derivatives platform, quadrupling its options metrics from 10 to 40 dedicated tools. The expansion, completed in Q4 2025, now covers BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and PAXG across Deribit, OKX, and Bybit exchanges.
The timing matters. With Bitcoin hovering around $95,000 as of January 16, 2026, and institutional capital increasingly flowing through derivatives rather than spot markets, options have become primary drivers of price dynamics. Glassnode’s bet is that traders need to see both sides—who holds risk on-chain and how that risk gets priced in options.
Premium Flows Replace Volume as the Conviction Signal
The centerpiece of the new suite treats premium—actual dollars spent on options—as the definitive measure of conviction rather than contract volume or open interest. A pile of cheap out-of-the-money options might look significant by OI, but represents minimal capital at risk.
The platform now separates taker flows by intent: call buyers versus call sellers, put buyers versus put sellers. Since takers pay the spread for immediate execution, their activity signals urgency. Traders can now identify strike-level magnets where positioning builds, and distinguish between end-users aggressively buying crash protection versus quietly selling premium in anticipation of range-bound conditions.
Combo Strategy Reconstruction
Raw option-by-option flow often misleads. What appears as “one call bought, one call sold” might actually be a single taker executing a strangle—a pure volatility bet with no directional bias.
Glassnode now reconstructs multi-leg trades into canonical strategies: straddles, strangles, spreads, condors, and ladders. This tracks net premium for entire structures rather than isolated legs, revealing whether traders are paying for volatility, harvesting carry, or running structured hedges across maturities.
Gamma Exposure Maps Dealer Hedging Flows
The new Gamma Exposure (GEX) metrics address a structural reality: dealer hedging flows are large relative to crypto market depth. When market makers maintain delta-neutral positions, they must continuously hedge gamma exposure by trading futures or spot.
At price levels with high positive gamma, dealers absorb shocks—buying dips, selling rallies—creating “gamma gravity” that pins prices near strikes. At negative gamma levels, hedging amplifies moves in both directions. Monitoring where GEX flips sign helps anticipate regime shifts between quiet and volatile conditions.
Interpolated IV Grid Across Deltas and Tenors
The volatility surface tools now provide call and put implied volatility across multiple deltas (5D through 50D) and standard tenors (1-week through 6-month) for all covered assets. Previously, Glassnode only offered 25-delta skew without individual legs.
The standardized delta buckets reveal cross-asset divergences. If SOL 25D call IV rises while BTC stays flat, that divergence might signal rotation toward higher-beta assets. The term structure shows whether markets are pricing short-term stress versus longer-dated repricing.
A proprietary Glassnode Skew Index integrates the full volatility smile through UpVol and DownVol, rather than just comparing two points like traditional 25-delta skew. Positive values indicate the market paying more for upside tails; negative values show preference for downside protection.
What This Means for Traders
The practical applications are specific. Delta skew serves as a fear-and-greed barometer—positive skew means premium for upside calls, negative skew indicates a rush for put protection. Historical extremes in either direction often mark local tops or capitulation bottoms.
IV heatmaps display the full volatility surface in one view, making it easy to spot skew asymmetries and tail-risk pricing. Elevated IV at low-delta puts (−10D to −5D) without price follow-through often signals fear saturation and potential volatility compression.
Glassnode says the roadmap includes deeper market structure analytics and further integration between on-chain and derivatives data. For institutional teams with custom requirements, the company is offering direct consultation on implementation.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price traded 9.5% above its Jan. 1 open of $87,500, and traders were confident that BTC’s short-term “trend is up” as the price approached a key level of interest.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin price consolidates around $95,000 as bulls face a major barrier ahead.
Technical analysis shows an ascending triangle targeting $113,200 BTC price.
Bitcoin price is at an “inflection point”
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s ability to return to a six-figure price hinges on overcoming the resistance at $98,000 — the short-term holder (STH) cost basis.
This is the critical point on traders’ radar and one that has not received a convincing retest recently.
MN Capital Founder Michael van de Poppe said as long as the BTC/USD pair holds above the 21-day moving average at $91,200, “the trend is up,” and it will just be a matter of time until it breaks $100,000.
Analyst Mags spotted Bitcoin bouncing from a multi-year trendline in the weekly timeframe.
“Bitcoin is bouncing from the long-term trendline support it has been holding since March 2023,” Mags said in their latest analysis on X, adding:
“Each time the price has bounced from this support, we have witnessed a strong run-up.”
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Mags
Note that the last time Bitcoin bounced off this trendline in October 2023, it rallied 172% to its previous all-time high of $73,800, reached on March 14, 2024.
The BTC/USD pair is currently retesting the horizontal trendline of an ascending triangle, as shown on the daily chart below.
A major resistance zone sits between $96,000 (100-day EMA) and $99,500 (200-day EMA), which bulls must overcome to open the way for a run-up toward the measured target of the triangle at $113,200.
Bitcoin is consolidating in an “ascending triangle along with confirmed weekly hidden bullish divergence,” said analyst Matthew Hyland in a recent post on X, adding:
“Price goes up.”
The relative strength index has increased to 64 on Friday, from oversold conditions in mid-November.
This suggests Bitcoin is “trading strong but is pretty far from being overbought in the short term,” Daan Crypto Trades said, adding:
“There’s definitely a good amount of room to move higher for now. Just need the bulls to hold the lower timeframe bullish market structures.”
As Cointelegraph reported, a bullish divergence from the RSI and a MACD cross provided classic reversal signals as bulls eye $101,000 as the next major level to reclaim for a trend confirmation.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
AAVE shows bullish potential toward $190-195 range by February 2026, with current price at $173.76 offering entry opportunity despite neutral RSI and bearish MACD momentum.
While specific analyst predictions from crypto Twitter are limited in the past 24 hours, recent analysis from blockchain specialists suggests promising upward momentum for AAVE. According to Caroline Bishop’s January 10 analysis, “AAVE price prediction shows potential rally to $190-$195 range by February 2026, driven by oversold RSI recovery and analyst targets up to $213. Current $165 level offers entry opportunity.”
Joerg Hiller reinforced this optimistic outlook on January 11, noting that “recent analyst forecasts suggest AAVE could rally 18-25% from current levels, with technical indicators showing mixed signals as the token trades at $167.02.” Most recently, Rebeca Moen’s January 15 analysis highlighted that “AAVE price prediction shows bullish momentum toward $190-195 by February despite mixed signals. Technical analysis reveals key resistance at $184 with strong support holding.”
These analyst forecasts align with the consensus AAVE price prediction targeting the $190-195 range by February 2026, representing potential gains of 9-12% from current levels.
AAVE Technical Analysis Breakdown
Current technical indicators present a mixed but cautiously optimistic picture for the Aave forecast. Trading at $173.76, AAVE sits comfortably above its 20-period simple moving average of $164.24, indicating short-term bullish sentiment. The RSI reading of 53.99 places the token in neutral territory, suggesting neither oversold nor overbought conditions.
The MACD histogram at 0.0000 signals bearish momentum in the immediate term, though this neutral reading suggests consolidation rather than aggressive selling pressure. AAVE’s position within the Bollinger Bands shows strength, with a %B reading of 0.7456, indicating the price is trading in the upper portion of the band range.
Key resistance levels emerge at $178.47 (immediate) and $183.19 (strong), while critical support sits at $169.10 with stronger backing at $164.45. The daily ATR of $8.68 indicates moderate volatility, providing both opportunity and risk for traders.
Aave Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
In the bullish case for this AAVE price prediction, a break above the immediate resistance at $178.47 could trigger momentum toward the $183-184 range, which analysts have identified as the key breakout level. Sustained trading above $184 would validate the path toward the February targets of $190-195.
Technical confirmation would require the RSI moving above 60 and MACD histogram turning positive. Volume expansion above the current $13.19 million daily average would provide additional validation for upward movement.
Bearish Scenario
The bearish scenario sees AAVE testing support at $169.10, particularly if the MACD histogram deepens into negative territory. A break below this level could expose the strong support at $164.45, aligning with the 20-period SMA.
Risk factors include broader crypto market weakness and failure to maintain above the middle Bollinger Band at $164.24. The significant gap to the 200-period SMA at $244.29 also highlights the longer-term bearish context.
Should You Buy AAVE? Entry Strategy
For the current Aave forecast, the $169-173 range presents a reasonable entry zone, offering proximity to support levels with manageable risk. Conservative traders might wait for a pullback to the $169.10 support level before initiating positions.
Stop-loss placement below $164.45 would limit downside risk to approximately 5-6% from current levels. Profit-taking strategies could target the $183-184 resistance zone initially, with extended targets at the analyst-predicted $190-195 range for February.
Risk management remains crucial given the neutral-to-bearish short-term momentum signals. Position sizing should account for the moderate volatility indicated by the ATR reading.
Conclusion
This AAVE price prediction suggests cautious optimism for the token’s near-term prospects, with analyst targets of $190-195 by February 2026 appearing achievable based on current technical structure. The neutral RSI and proximity to key support levels provide a foundation for upward movement, though traders should monitor the MACD for momentum confirmation.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
