Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest has increased its exposure to crypto-linked equities, adding shares of Coinbase, Circle and Bullish as prices slid across the sector.
According to ARK’s daily trade disclosures for Friday, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) purchased 38,854 shares of Coinbase Global Inc., while the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) added another 3,325 shares, acquiring a total of $9.4 million worth of the exchange shares. Coinbase shares closed down 2.77% on the day at $216.95.
ARK added a combined 129,446 shares of Circle Internet Group across ARKK and ARKF, a position worth roughly $9.2 million. The firm also added 88,533 shares of Bullish across the same ETFs, investing about $3.2 million. Circle shares were little changed on the day, slipping 0.03% while Bullish shares declined 2% during the session, closing at $35.75.
Alongside the crypto buys, ARK trimmed positions elsewhere in the portfolio, including Meta Platforms, selling 12,400 shares valued at roughly $8.03 million.
Coinbase shares dropped 2% on Friday. Source: Google Finance
As Cointelegraph reported, the downturn in crypto markets during the fourth quarter of 2025 weighed heavily on several of Cathie Wood’s ARK ETFs. In its quarterly report, ARK pointed to crypto-linked equities as a major source of weakness across its flagship products.
Coinbase emerged as the largest detractor during the quarter, dragging on performance at the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW), ARKF and ARKK. ARK said Coinbase shares fell more sharply than Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) as spot trading volumes on centralized exchanges declined 9% quarter-on-quarter following October’s liquidation event.
Roblox was the second-largest drag on ARK ETFs, despite posting strong third-quarter bookings growth. Shares fell after the company warned of declining operating margins in 2026 and faced additional pressure following Russia’s ban of the platform.
ARK Invest sees crypto market reaching $28T by 2030
ARK’s continued interest in the crypto market comes as the firm expects the digital asset market could grow to $28 trillion by 2030, driven largely by rising Bitcoin adoption and price appreciation. In its Big Ideas 2026 report, ARK projected the crypto market would expand at a 61% compound annual growth rate, with Bitcoin accounting for roughly 70% of the total market value.
ARK said that if about 20.5 million Bitcoin have been mined by 2030, the forecast implies a Bitcoin price in the $950,000 to $1 million range. The firm cited growing institutional participation, noting that Bitcoin ETFs and corporate holders increased their share of total supply in 2025.
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Colombia’s second-largest private pension and severance fund manager, AFP Protección, is preparing to launch an investment fund with exposure to Bitcoin.
Juan David Correa, president of Protección SA, confirmed the initiative during an interview with local outlet Valora Analitik. According to Correa, access to the product will be limited and granted only through a personalized advisory process designed to assess each investor’s risk profile. Only clients who meet specific criteria will be able to allocate a portion of their portfolios to Bitcoin (BTC).
“The most important element is diversification,” Correa noted, adding that “those who can participate will find a space for a percentage of their portfolio, if they so wish, to be exposed to this type of asset.”
Protección’s move follows a similar step by Skandia Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones y Cesantías, which began offering Bitcoin exposure in one of its portfolios in September last year. With this launch, Protección becomes the second major pension fund administrator in Colombia to enter the digital asset space.
Bitcoin fund will not change core pension investments
Protección said that the new Bitcoin-linked fund does not represent a shift in how the bulk of Colombian pension savings are managed. Fixed income instruments, equities and other traditional assets remain the core of pension portfolios. Instead, the product is positioned as an additional option for qualified investors seeking diversification.
Protección reveals Bitcoin fund plan. Source: Valora Analitik
Founded in 1991, AFP Protección manages more than 220 trillion Colombian pesos (approximately $55 billion) in assets for over 8.5 million clients across mandatory and voluntary pension plans and severance accounts.
The broader mandatory pension fund market in Colombia reached 527.3 trillion pesos as of November 2025, with nearly half of those assets invested abroad.
Earlier this month, Colombia’s tax authority, DIAN, introduced a mandatory reporting framework for crypto service providers, requiring exchanges, custodians and intermediaries to collect and submit user and transaction data.
The resolution aligns Colombia with the OECD’s Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF), enabling the automatic exchange of crypto-related tax information with foreign authorities. Under the new regime, service providers must report identifying details and transaction data for reportable users, comply with due diligence and valuation standards, and face penalties if they fail to meet the requirements.
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AAVE price prediction shows mixed signals with analysts targeting $190-195 by February 2026, though current technical indicators suggest caution around $155 support levels with bearish MACD momentum.
Recent analyst predictions for AAVE have been notably optimistic despite current market conditions. Felix Pinkston highlighted on January 16, 2026, that “AAVE shows bullish potential toward $190-195 range by February 2026, with current price at $173.76 offering entry opportunity despite neutral RSI and bearish MACD momentum.”
Peter Zhang provided a comprehensive AAVE price prediction on January 17, 2026, stating: “AAVE Price Prediction Summary: Short-term target (1 week): $182-184; Medium-term forecast (1 month): $190-195 range; Bullish breakout level: $184.75; Critical support: $164.51.”
More recently, Ted Hisokawa noted on January 21, 2026, that “AAVE price prediction shows mixed signals with analysts targeting $190-195 by February 2026, while current technical indicators suggest caution at $155 support levels.”
The consensus among analysts appears to be a bullish Aave forecast for February 2026, with targets consistently pointing toward the $190-195 range, representing potential upside of approximately 25% from current levels.
AAVE Technical Analysis Breakdown
Current technical indicators paint a mixed picture for AAVE. Trading at $154.70, the token has declined 1.80% in the past 24 hours, with trading volume of $2.72 million on Binance.
The RSI at 41.03 places AAVE in neutral territory, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. However, the MACD histogram at 0.0000 indicates bearish momentum, with the MACD line at -3.0939 matching the signal line exactly.
Bollinger Band analysis reveals AAVE is positioned at 0.1334, very close to the lower band at $150.59. This positioning near the lower band often signals potential oversold conditions and possible bounce opportunities. The middle band (20-day SMA) sits at $166.00, while the upper band extends to $181.41.
Moving average analysis shows AAVE trading below all major timeframes. The 7-day SMA at $157.43 provides immediate resistance, followed by the 20-day SMA at $166.00. The significant gap to the 200-day SMA at $238.93 indicates the longer-term downtrend remains intact.
Key support and resistance levels show immediate resistance at $156.88, with stronger resistance at $159.05. On the downside, immediate support sits at $153.39, with critical support at $152.07.
Aave Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
The bullish AAVE price prediction hinges on breaking above the immediate resistance at $159.05. A successful break could target the 7-day SMA at $157.43, followed by the 20-day SMA at $166.00. The ultimate bullish target aligns with analyst predictions of $190-195, requiring AAVE to reach the upper Bollinger Band region and beyond.
Technical confirmation for the bullish scenario would require:
– RSI moving above 50 into bullish territory
– MACD histogram turning positive
– Volume expansion on any upward moves
– Successful hold above $159.05 resistance
Bearish Scenario
The bearish case for this Aave forecast involves a break below the critical support at $152.07. Such a move could accelerate selling toward the lower Bollinger Band at $150.59 and potentially the psychological $150 level.
Risk factors supporting the bearish scenario include:
– Current bearish MACD momentum
– Trading below all moving averages
– Proximity to lower Bollinger Band suggesting continued weakness
– Overall crypto market sentiment
Should You Buy AAVE? Entry Strategy
For traders considering AAVE, the current technical setup suggests waiting for clearer directional signals. Conservative buyers might consider accumulating near the $152-153 support zone, with a stop-loss below $150 to limit downside risk.
More aggressive traders could look for a break above $159.05 with volume confirmation as an entry signal, targeting the analyst predictions of $182-184 in the short term.
Position sizing should reflect the high volatility (ATR of $8.41)
Stop-loss placement below $150 for long positions
Take partial profits at $170 and $180 levels
Monitor Bitcoin and broader market sentiment for correlation effects
Conclusion
The AAVE price prediction presents a tale of two scenarios. While multiple analysts maintain bullish targets of $190-195 by February 2026, current technical indicators suggest caution in the near term. The bearish MACD momentum and position near lower Bollinger Bands indicate potential further downside before any meaningful recovery.
This Aave forecast suggests patience may be rewarded, with the $152-155 range potentially offering attractive entry points for those believing in the analysts’ medium-term targets. However, traders should remain vigilant for any break below critical support levels.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are highly speculative and subject to extreme volatility. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before investing.
The spike in Polymarket odds comes just days after United States President Donald Trump said “we’re probably going to end up in another Democrat shutdown.”
Polymarket betters are pricing in a 77% chance that the US government will shut down again before the end of January, marking a 67% increase over the past 24 hours.
It comes as the CLARITY Act, a significant crypto bill aimed at providing more clarity around regulations, is still making its way through Congress, with previous delays largely blamed on the record 43-day US government shutdown in October and November.
Political commentator Collin Rugg highlighted the surging Polymarket odds in an X post on Saturday, noting that it came shortly after US Senator Chuck Schumer announced that Senate Democrats would not “provide the votes to proceed” to the appropriations bill if funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is included.
The odds jumped 67% over the past 24 hours. Source: Polymarket
Trump didn’t rule out shutdown in the future
Schumer said that the DHS bill is “woefully inadequate to rein in the abuses of ICE. I will vote no.”
US President Donald Trump didn’t rule out the chances of another government shutdown at some point, telling Fox Business on Thursday: “I think we have a problem, because I think we’re probably going to end up in another Democrat shutdown.”
It adds uncertainty around the CLARITY Act’s timeline, which has recently received a mixed response from the crypto industry after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and other executives withdrew support.
“This version would be materially worse than the current status quo. We’d rather have no bill than a bad bill. Hopefully, we can all get to a better draft,” Armstrong said on Jan. 15.
CLARITY Act timeline remains unclear
Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn echoed industry concerns in a report on Thursday that there is still uncertainty around stablecoin yields, which the US banking lobby argues would undermine the banking sector’s competitiveness.
“There aren’t yet any significant indications that the two sides have identified a compromise that can rejuvenate the bill’s prospects,” he said, adding that “the additional 4-6 weeks until a second attempt at markup should give the parties more time to work on that.”
Thorn said one of the “big questions” is whether “the gridlocked negotiations over stablecoin rewards can advance in the interim to raise the odds that such a markup is a bipartisan success.”
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Aave (AAVE) trades at $156.65 with analysts eyeing $190-195 by February 2026, though bearish MACD and oversold conditions suggest near-term caution around $151 support.
Aave (AAVE) is navigating a challenging technical landscape as it trades at $156.65, down 0.18% in the past 24 hours. Despite short-term headwinds, multiple analysts maintain bullish medium-term outlooks, with consistent price targets emerging for the decentralized lending protocol’s native token.
Recent analyst coverage has converged on similar price targets despite current market volatility. Felix Pinkston noted on January 16 that “AAVE shows bullish potential toward $190-195 range by February 2026, with current price at $173.76 offering entry opportunity despite neutral RSI and bearish MACD momentum.”
Peter Zhang provided more granular targets on January 17, stating: “Short-term target (1 week): $182-184; Medium-term forecast (1 month): $190-195 range; Bullish breakout level: $184.75; Critical support: $164.51.”
Most recently, Ted Hisokawa acknowledged the mixed technical picture on January 21, observing that “AAVE price prediction shows mixed signals with analysts targeting $190-195 by February 2026, while current technical indicators suggest caution at $155 support levels.”
The consistency in the $190-195 target range across multiple analysts suggests institutional confidence in Aave’s medium-term prospects, even as short-term technicals remain challenging.
AAVE Technical Analysis Breakdown
Current technical indicators paint a cautious picture for AAVE in the near term. The RSI sits at 42.43, indicating neutral momentum neither oversold nor overbought conditions. However, the MACD histogram at 0.0000 suggests bearish momentum has stalled but hasn’t reversed.
Aave’s position within the Bollinger Bands is particularly telling, with a %B reading of 0.1507 indicating the token is trading near the lower band support at $152.26. This positioning often precedes either a bounce back toward the middle band at $166.83 or a breakdown below key support levels.
Moving average analysis reveals concerning trends across timeframes. AAVE trades below all major moving averages, with the SMA 7 at $159.51, SMA 20 at $166.83, and SMA 50 at $169.86 all acting as overhead resistance. The significant gap to the SMA 200 at $239.66 illustrates the token’s substantial decline from previous highs.
Key support and resistance levels have crystallized around $151.04 for strong support and $164.20 for immediate resistance. The Average True Range of $8.64 suggests moderate volatility, providing opportunities for both breakout and breakdown scenarios.
Aave Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
The optimistic AAVE price prediction hinges on a successful reclaim of the $164.20 resistance level. Should this occur, the path toward analyst targets becomes clearer. A sustained break above this level would likely target the middle Bollinger Band at $166.83, followed by the SMA 20 at the same level.
From there, the Aave forecast points toward the $182-184 range identified by analysts as the next significant resistance cluster. A successful test of these levels would validate the $190-195 medium-term targets, representing potential gains of 21-24% from current levels.
Technical confirmation for this bullish scenario would require RSI moving above 50, MACD turning positive, and sustained volume above the recent average of $6.8 million.
Bearish Scenario
The downside case for AAVE centers on a failure to hold the $151.04 support level. Given the current position near the lower Bollinger Band and weak momentum indicators, a breakdown could accelerate quickly.
Initial downside targets would focus on the $145-148 range, representing the next logical support zone based on previous trading ranges. A more severe correction could test levels around $130-135, though this would likely require broader crypto market weakness.
Risk factors include continued institutional selling pressure, regulatory concerns around DeFi protocols, and potential technical selling if key support levels fail.
Should You Buy AAVE? Entry Strategy
For investors considering AAVE positions, the current technical setup suggests patience may be rewarded. The optimal entry strategy involves waiting for either a clear break above $164.20 with volume confirmation or a successful test and bounce from the $151.04 support level.
Conservative buyers might consider dollar-cost averaging in the $152-158 range, with strict stop-losses below $148 to limit downside exposure. More aggressive traders could wait for momentum confirmation above the $164.20 breakout level before entering positions.
Position sizing should account for the elevated volatility suggested by the $8.64 ATR reading, and risk management becomes crucial given the mixed technical picture.
Conclusion
The AAVE price prediction landscape presents a tale of two timeframes. While short-term technicals suggest continued consolidation or potential weakness toward $151 support, analyst consensus around $190-195 targets by February 2026 indicates medium-term optimism remains intact.
The key catalyst will be whether AAVE can reclaim the $164.20 resistance level and rebuild bullish momentum. Until then, the Aave forecast remains cautiously neutral with a medium-term bullish bias, contingent on broader market conditions and the protocol’s continued development momentum.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are inherently speculative and should not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
Recent analyst predictions paint an optimistic picture for Lido DAO despite current market conditions. Ted Hisokawa noted on January 17, 2026: “Lido DAO shows bullish MACD signals with analyst consensus targeting $0.75-$0.85 range by early February 2026, representing 20-37% upside from current $0.61 levels.”
Darius Baruo provided a similar outlook on January 21, stating: “Lido DAO (LDO) trades at $0.52 with bearish momentum but analyst targets suggest 45-64% upside to $0.75-$0.85 range by February 2026 based on MACD signals.”
Most recently, Terrill Dicki reinforced this sentiment on January 22: “Lido DAO (LDO) trades at $0.53 amid bearish momentum, but analysts maintain bullish outlook targeting $0.75-$0.85 range by early February 2026.”
The consensus among analysts points to a potential 43-63% upside from current levels, despite short-term bearish pressure.
LDO Technical Analysis Breakdown
Lido DAO’s technical picture presents a mixed but intriguing setup for potential price appreciation. Trading at $0.52, LDO sits below most of its key moving averages, with the 7-day SMA at $0.54 providing immediate resistance.
The RSI reading of 35.04 indicates neutral territory, neither oversold nor overbought, suggesting room for movement in either direction. However, the MACD histogram at 0.0000 confirms current bearish momentum, with both MACD and signal lines converging at -0.0219.
Bollinger Bands analysis reveals LDO trading near the lower band support at $0.50, with a %B position of 0.1252. This positioning often signals potential reversal opportunities, as tokens trading near lower bands frequently experience bounce-back rallies.
The daily ATR of $0.04 indicates moderate volatility, while the Stochastic oscillator shows oversold conditions with %K at 9.52 and %D at 7.61, potentially setting up for a bullish reversal.
Lido DAO Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
If LDO breaks above the immediate resistance at $0.54-$0.55, the path opens toward analyst targets of $0.75-$0.85. This Lido DAO forecast aligns with the bullish MACD signals that analysts have identified.
Key confirmation levels include:
– Breaking above the 7-day SMA ($0.54)
– Reclaiming the 12-day EMA ($0.56)
– Sustained move above $0.58 toward the 20-day SMA ($0.60)
The bullish case gains strength if LDO can establish support above $0.58, potentially triggering momentum toward the upper Bollinger Band at $0.70 and beyond to analyst targets.
Bearish Scenario
Should LDO fail to hold current support levels, downside risks become apparent. Critical support lies at $0.50-$0.51, coinciding with the lower Bollinger Band and recent trading range lows.
A break below $0.50 could target:
– Initial support at $0.45-$0.47
– Extended downside toward $0.40-$0.42
The bearish scenario would be confirmed by continued MACD divergence and failure to break above the 7-day SMA resistance.
Should You Buy LDO? Entry Strategy
Current technical conditions suggest a cautious but potentially rewarding entry strategy for LDO price prediction enthusiasts. The oversold Stochastic readings combined with lower Bollinger Band positioning create an interesting risk-reward setup.
Position sizing should reflect the moderate-to-high risk nature of this Lido DAO forecast, with maximum 2-3% portfolio allocation recommended.
Conclusion
The LDO price prediction points toward significant upside potential over the next 4-6 weeks, with analyst consensus targeting $0.75-$0.85 representing 43-63% gains from current levels. While short-term bearish momentum persists, oversold technical conditions and lower Bollinger Band positioning suggest a potential reversal setup.
The Lido DAO forecast appears most compelling on a risk-adjusted basis for traders willing to wait for technical confirmation above $0.55. However, failure to hold support at $0.50 would invalidate the bullish thesis and require reassessment.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are highly speculative and involve substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
The Ethereum Foundation has made post-quantum security a central focus of the network’s long-term roadmap, announcing the formation of a dedicated Post Quantum (PQ) team.
The new team will be led by Thomas Coratger, a cryptographic engineer at the Ethereum Foundation, with support from Emile, a cryptographer closely associated with leanVM, according to crypto researcher Justin Drake.
“After years of quiet R&D, EF management has officially declared PQ security a top strategic priority,” Drake said in a Saturday post on X. “It’s now 2026, timelines are accelerating. Time to go full PQ.”
EF backs post-quantum push with developer sessions, funding
Drake outlined several near-term steps aimed at preparing the ecosystem. A biweekly developer session focused on post-quantum transactions is set to begin next month, led by Ethereum researcher Antonio Sanso. The sessions will concentrate on user-facing protections, including protocol-level cryptographic tools, account abstraction pathways and longer-term work on aggregating transaction signatures using leanVM.
The Ethereum Foundation is also backing its push with new funding. Drake announced a $1 million Poseidon Prize to strengthen the Poseidon hash function, alongside another $1 million initiative known as the Proximity Prize, both aimed at advancing post-quantum cryptography.
Ethereum prepares for quantum era. Source: Justin Drake
On the engineering front, Drake said multi-client post-quantum consensus development networks are already live, with multiple teams participating and coordinating through weekly interoperability calls.
Furthermore, the foundation will host a dedicated post-quantum event in October, followed by a post-quantum day in late March ahead of EthCC. Educational efforts, including video content and materials aimed at enterprises, are also underway.
The announcement comes amid growing sensitivity in crypto markets to quantum risk. On Wednesday, Coinbase revealed that it has established an independent advisory board to evaluate how advances in quantum computing could impact the cryptography securing major blockchain networks, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum.
The board brings together experts from academia and industry in quantum computing, cryptography, and blockchain security, and will publish public research and guidance for developers, organizations, and users. Its first position paper is expected in early 2027.
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GameStop has transferred its entire Bitcoin holdings to Coinbase’s institutional trading platform, sparking speculation that the video game retailer may be reconsidering its Bitcoin treasury strategy.
“GameStop throws in the towel?” blockchain intelligence platform CryptoQuant asked in a post to X on Friday after noticing that GameStop moved its entire 4,710 Bitcoin (BTC) stash worth more than $422 million to Coinbase Prime.
CryptoQuant said the transfer was “likely to sell” the holdings, noting that a sale with Bitcoin at $90,800 would mean GameStop realizing around $76 million in losses from its Bitcoin bet.
GameStop accumulated 4,710 Bitcoin across several investments in May at an average purchasing price of $107,900.
GameStop launched a Bitcoin treasury after its CEO, Ryan Cohen, met with Strategy chair Michael Saylor last February to discuss how such strategies could be best implemented.
GameStop hasn’t publicly addressed speculation that it has sold, or intends to sell, its Bitcoin.
Cointelegraph reached out to GameStop for comment, but didn’t receive an immediate response.
It comes as a Wednesday filing revealed GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen bought another 500,000 GME shares worth over $10 million, contributing to the retailer’s share price rising over 3% on Thursday.
Crypto treasuries remain included in MSCI market indexes
Corporate crypto treasuries, particularly Strategy, scored a major win earlier this month when Morgan Stanley Capital International decided not to exclude digital asset treasury companies from its market index, for now.
MSCI said it needed more time to distinguish between investment companies and other companies that hold digital assets as part of their core operations.
Exclusion from MSCI indexes could have seen Strategy and other DATs lose billions of dollars in passive capital inflow.
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Bitcoin (BTC) may remain pinned below $100,000 for the first half of 2026 as the market lacks bullish catalysts amid macroeconomic uncertainties.
Key takeaways:
BTC price has a less than 10% chance of retaking $100,000 before Feb. 1, according to prediction markets.
Traders predict that Bitcoin is unlikely to see $100,000 before June.
Bitcoin’s price will likely drop below Strategy’s cost basis.
Less than 10% chance BTC hits $100,000 before February
The majority of traders on Polymarket and Kalshi don’t expect Bitcoin to return to a six-figure price over the next seven days.
As of Thursday, Polymarket bettors are pricing in about 6% odds of BTC crossing $100,000 before Jan. 31. Kalshi sets 7% odds of BTC touching the $100,000 psychological level before the end of January.
Bitcoin $100K price target before Jan. 31. Source: Polymarket
Bitcoin’s high for 2026 sits at $97,900, reached on Jan. 14, and the last time the BTC/USD pair traded above $100,000 was on Nov. 13.
If a similar scenario plays out, BTC price may retake $100,000 in mid-February, as shown in the chart below.
However, traders on Kalshi say that this may take longer, estimating a 65% chance that Bitcoin will break $100,000 before June.
Bitcoin $100K price target before May. 31. Source: Kalshi
In fact, traders on Polymarket see 65% odds of BTC dropping to $80,000 first, before returning to $100,000 in 2026.
Kalshi bettors price in 54% odds that Bitcoin will bottom out at $70,000 this year. Furthermore, the chance of it going to $65,000 is 50% and going as low as $60,000 is 42%.
Traders on Polymarket set a 75% chance that Bitcoin will trade below Strategy’s average BTC cost price in 2026, which was $75,979 at the time of writing.
Odds that Bitcoin drops below Strategy’s average cost. Source: Polymarket.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
BTC price faces pressure as markets brace for a sustained rise in long-term yields driven by economic deficits, particularly in Japan.
The gap between the US’s longer-dated and shorter-dated bonds has widened to its highest level since 2021, signaling potential trouble for Bitcoin (BTC) in 2026.
Key takeaways:
A wider gap means long-term yields are rising, which can pressure Bitcoin.
Japan’s long-bond selloff is driving the move and pulling US yields higher.
Rising yield gap can hurt equities (and Bitcoin)
Bitcoin’s market outlook looks increasingly bearish, if an assessment made by David Roberts, head of fixed income at Nedgroup Investments, on the global equity market is to be believed.
The gap between the US’s 2-year and 30-year yields (green). Source: Bloomberg
Roberts told Bloomberg that equities would suffer due to “a sustained push higher in yield.” He said the pressure is concentrated in longer-dated yields, particularly in Japan.
This week, Japan’s 30-year bond yield rose to a record 3.92%, widening its gap with the 2-year bond yields by 220–325 bps.
Japan’s 30-year bond yield weekly chart. Source: TradingView
It can increase by another 75–100 bps, said Lauren van Biljon, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, citing Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s election vows to increase spending.
The US 30-year yield closely tracks its Japanese counterpart, indicating that it would rise alongside in the coming weeks or months.
Japan vs. the US’s 30-year yield comparison. Source: TradingView
Higher yields typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like equities, which increases the probability of Bitcoin, a “high-beta” risk asset, dropping alongside.
Gold’s outperformance is adding another headwind for Bitcoin, according to Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone.
In a Jan. 23 post, McGlone argued that gold’s “historic alpha grab” is pulling capital toward the traditional inflation hedge at a time when higher long-term Treasury yields are also competing for flows.
In that setup, Bitcoin faces a tougher hurdle to reclaim key psychological levels at or above $100,000, especially if investors continue to favor lower-volatility stores of value over high-beta risk assets.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
